NBA Tuesday

I see 63% consensus on Seattle at home today. I guess the prediction is follow the ATS win with SU win and get things rolling in Seattle. That's hard to buy giving up points at this stage. JJ is quietly leading the scrappy Hawks to top of ATS and tonight they are getting good number. Hawks may have road disadvantage, but Sonics have a bigger home disadvantage.
Lets roll with the Hawks

ATL +5 at -110 for 3 units(L)
Didn't find out Ray Allen was out untill the line dropped to +3.5 and it was classic team step up with their star player out. I would of passed this game with time difference of 15 minutes or so.
0-1 -3.30 units

NBA Monday

I am a big fan of Dallas Mavericks and they are on a amazing run (8-2 L10 ATS and 10-0 SU), but Monday at Washington Mavs may disappoint.
Mavs have beat Kings and Raptors by double digits cruising to both wins and ATS cover. Wizards were embarrassed by Bulls in Chicago and last match (11/21 at Dallas 107-80) was schooled by Mavs. Most recent blow out combined with revenge factor on home court and getting points. On the early wagerline 74% consensus is on Dallas and this line should move at least to -4.5, but at Pinny the money is still on Washington +3.5 at -107.
It's the Monday Dog play and I'm just waiting to get more points.

Another good play here might be Gilbert Arenas to score above his average (25.4 points per game) as he is coming off 10 pints in 21:41 minutes at Chicago. Prop Play is O/U 27 points, I'll pass.

Line is still holding Washington +3.5 at -102 (+4 at -110 & +4.5 at -118) showing signs or sharp line movement where majority is on the Fav and line moves the other way. I may have to take this soon or wait just before game in the mean time hitting the short Overs.

DAL/WAS First Quarter 51.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)
DAL/WAS First Half 102.5 at -105 for 3 units (L)

WTF, game Totals dropped and ATS is not moving!

WAS +4.5 at -116 for 3 units(W) (1 point buy, missed -114)

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If your looking at ATS winners Golden State should be on that list. Nelly has this team purring and their losses have been very tight (L10 games 5 SU losses,
12/2 110-115 MIL by 5, 11/29 106-108 IND by 2, 11/24 129-140 @DEN by 11, 11/22 112-115 DEN and 11/20 110-113 PHO by 3) San Antonio is not covering at home and although this is a revenge situation I see Warriors playing tenacious ball keeping this within 5 points differential.

GSW +8.5 at -108 for 2 units(L)
-------------------------------------------
Indiana is scoring points 4-1 Over L5 since starting their road trip. So are the Lakers going 4-1 Over L5. This is a game that looks Over on the surface, but Lakers Overs are tied into Koby scoring above his average of 26.4 points when he falls below average Lakers fall short of 100 points. Now in his last game against the Clips Koby scored 29 and team fell short of 100 points. Lakers totals run in streaks 5 Overs just ended with Clips 97-88 (185 with Total at 200) I also think Koby's score will fall to his average or below.
The Pacers have been crashing Overs on the road and I'm suspecting this may have peaked at 12/2 @DEN 101-121 (2nd leg of back to back on road) Indy is not winning by outscoring opponents they are allowing too many points. They have allowed 85+ shot attempts in all 5 of their current road trip when they have held Cleveland 11/24 to 68 and @Orlando 11/22 to 69. Defense returns for the battle at Staples.

IND/LAL UNDER 203.5 at -105 for 2units(W)
3-2 +2.31 units

NBA Sunday

Should I take a break? Maybe I should, but Clippers are simply playing bad and it's not going to help getting Orlando on 2nd of back to back home game.
Play is short and this will be it for tonight.

ORL +0.5 at -116 for 2 units(L)
Can't get any breaks lately.
0-1 -2.32 units

NBA Saturday

Short on time to breakdown these plays, but these are what I'm on.
Play at your own risk....I should have a bounce back day.

PHL/NJN UNDER 198 at -116 for 1 unit(L)

SAC/SAS UNDER -190 at -119 for 1 unit(L)

MIA +1 First Quarter at -112 for 3 units(W)
1-2 +0.65 units

NBA Friday

Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns.
They say Amare's still not 100%, but the man is starting to take over the inside and his moves are getting faster. Talk about big athletic guy with moves he is fun to watch. Suns are tough in December and their offensive surge is right on queue. I just don't like them squandering big leads in the second half.
Bucks getting fat points for the game, but losing on the board and allowing opponents just as many attempts with good looks.

PHO -5.5 First Half at -105 for 3 units(L)
0-1 -3.15 units

NBA Thursday

We have two games today with broadcast on TNT.

Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat.
These two teams trend Under and that trend should jump out. But when trends appear so obvious buyer beware.
Piston Under 11-2 last 13 road games, Under 12-3 last 15 against SE, Heat Under 6-2 last 8 home games. Under 8-0 head to head.
I looked at that and threw it out the window, this is the first meeting this season. Shaq is out, Big Ben is no longer a Piston then look at the current scoring. Pistons offensive score and defensive allowed has been surging last 4 games. Miami has scored 100+ or allowed 100+ last 5 out of 5 games with one of the game (Loss 104-107 home 11/24 ORL) both teams in triple digits.
Pistons are rested arrived Miami yesterday I look for them to be on the attack.
Miami will key in on driving the lane and Dwayne will be behind the wheel.

DET/MIA Over 191 at -118 for 2 units(L) (buy -1 point)
DET/MIA OVER 95 First Half -105 for 1 unit(L)
--------------------------------------------------
Second game Jazz at Lakers.
Lakers are coming off an embarrassing loss to Michael Redd and the Bucks. Redd has his way that night and you know Koby was on his watch. Koby down played it, but good bounce back spot at home against very good Jazz. Utah is playing solid ball on a tight schedule and Spurs are likely to give them a bit of hangover on this second of back to back.

LAL -4 at -109 for 2 units(W)
1-2 -1.41 units

NBA Wednesday

I'll try to add some light to this pick for tomorrow.

The line has gone against me now stands at 187 rounding off the 0.5 points for team total Pinny has set 92 for Cats and 96 for Hawks 188 or exact number at 187. Atlanta team total of 95.5 is sided to Under at -112 and Bobcats team total 91.5 is neutral on both O/U at -108. Atlanta with (5 out of last 6) going Under, lowest set number was 188 the lone Over. Bobcats have faired better (3 out of last 6) going Over, most recent 3 games all going Over and the books have been way off on the number, lowest set number was 184.5 going Over. Both teams playing 2nd leg of back to back Hawks interior has been pretty good and Cats players are balanced in their scoring. The book has hung a number for both teams to score in the 90+'s which they have done 4 out of 5 for the Cats & 3 out of 5 for the Hawks, allowed 90+'s 4 out of 5 for Cats & 4 out of 5 (5 for 5 with OT) for Hawks.
Bobcats at Hawks Over 188 at -118 for 2 units(W)
Adding:
CHA/ATL Over 186.5 at -112 for 2 units(W)
CHA Over 91.5 at -108 for 1 unit(L)
Can not believe I missed Cats team total there was more than enough time to get one more basket. Oh well that's the game.
2-1 +3.92 units

NBA Tuesday

Recovering from the holiday. I will go with 2 half plays.

T-Wolves at Rocket is already under way. Minny is on the second of back to back, but looks like they will be gunning for the Rockets today. With Houston trying to solve their second half game Wolves are a likely play. I want to see marginal lead by Rockets to take the Wolves 2nd half.

Sorry missed the window for 2nd half play.

-------------------------------------------------
Clips at Kings might be a turn around game for LAC, but with consistent slow starts I will back Sacramento in the 1st Half.

SAC -3 First Half +102 for 1 unit(L)
Should of known the one I miss was the winning play
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Saturday

I'm putting this one in early.
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors both teams on 2nd of back to back coming off respective high scoring games. It's usually wise to look for the points to drop in this spot.

UTA/GSW Under 214.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

-----------------------------------------------
My first selection has moved to 215.5 at -105 so it's a better take now than it was early morning. I might take additional unit, but that'll wait closer to game time.

Play on 1st quarter Clippers at Minnesota. LAC 1st quarter fade has been money.

MIN +1 First Quarter at -110 for 1 unit(L)
I did add 2 units on the inflated number at 216, but couldn't get online so the record will lose the juice for Saturday.
1-1 -0.10 units

NBA Friday...Am I too late tonight

Never say it's over till it's over.
West coast late games have begun so I'll be on the prowl for 2nd half play.
Stay tuned as I will be tracking Nets at Suns. See how the wind blows.

As of the end of 1st quarter Suns are shooting lights out above 80% from the field, filling the 3 point shots and out boarding the Nets on the 2nd of back to back. I don't think Suns can keep this pace, but recent NJ pattern has been to fade away in the 2nd half. The 1st Half total at 50.5 was taken Over by Phoenix single handedly. Amare looks very impressive so far taking over the inside.

Not quite mid way 2nd quarter scoring has slowed with Nash and Stoudemire sitting, but Nets defense looks better. Similar to Suns against the Hornets in Phoenix's last game. If Nets are going to have a chance they'll need to stop Phoenix more than pushing their score.

==============================================
The Nets are playing their game, but it's far from being a winner. That doesn't mean they can't take the 2nd Half. Money is siding with Phoenix and maybe rightly so I'll roll with the NJN to bring it closer to about an 10 point game.

NJN 2nd Half -2.5 at +108 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.08 units
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Not sure if I'll be able to get online for Saturday or Sunday I will try, but if not good luck on the weekend games.

NBA Wednesday

I'm back after many many miles of travel. Spent more time in the air than ground. It's not over yet I'll be in Mid-West for Thanksgiving, oh what fun I'll be packed like sardines on the busiest flight day in the United States.

I hope to channel all this fun I'm about to have on the book that took my pick on Sunday.

Do not fear Pacers domination of Magic. Indy coming off incredible 4th quarter surge to take the 1st leg of back to back 93-88 win against Bucks at home. 2nd leg of back to back Magic is tough as nails at home.

ORL -2 First Quarter -105 for 2 units(L)
ORL -3.5 First Half -105 for 2 units(L)
ORL -5.5 at -102 for 3 units(L)
Oh Magic!
-----------------------------------------

Like the Hornets this year, can you tell?, Liked the Suns last year not as much this year. I think Nash is still the best distributor in this league. Lines moved up some, but still like the score to go high today.

NO/PHO Over 208 at -107 for 2 units(L)
-----------------------------------------------
Like Toronto this year too. Cleveland in Toronto has Raptors number, but I think Raps are a Sharp play with two possession ATS.

TOR +3.5 *buy 0.5 at -111 for 2 units(W)
Should of played Raptors across the board.
-------------------------------------------------
Late game addition:

I'm fading Clips at home on 2nd of back to back with a 1st quarter twist.
Clips have not led at the end of first quarter on majority of their game.

SEA +1.5 First Quarter -105 for 2 units(W)
SEA +6 at -113 for 2 units(W)
SEA ML +220 for 1 unit(W)

Plays are fair to poor right now. Going back to narrower plays.
4-4 -1.20 units

NBA Saturday

Losing with Mavs in the first half on a game they surged to take ATS in the 4th quarter is more than disappointing. It was the smallest of hunch not taking the full game and I out smarted myself to a loss.

I'm getting ready to fly back East this weekend, but wanted to get this pick in.

Houston at Detroit.
Pistons are coming off a win against Washington in what looks like a loss on paper. Detroit lost in the paint, field goal percentage, rebounding, fast break and won the game. Now they have always played Rockets tough, but 2nd leg of back to back with Piston's inside game looking shaky Houston should adjust to putting teams away in late game. Rockets to dominate the glass and take the road win.

HOU PK at -106 for 3 units(L)
Rockets still can't close games losing the 2nd half.
0-1 -3.00 units

NBA Friday

Dallas at Memphis.
This will most likely be a public play and that's the only reason I'm shy about.
Again trusting the First Half play according to the stronger team.

DAL -2.5 First Half at -105 for 2 units(L)

NBA Thursday

Backing rested and determined Yaozer, T-Mac and company, but Bulls are not easy inside. Today's spread looks tough to beat. Taking the first half.

HOU -2.5 Fist Half at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00

NBA Wednesday

Will play the back to back Denver at Orlando. Catching Nuggets at the tail end of their East Coast swing.

ORL -3 at -112 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Tuesday

Selection for today I like the Hornets at home taking on the Bobcats. Other than Okafor Cats are playing bad ball. Both teams are coming off 3 game losses each, but definately Hornets are playing better quality ball. Hornets lose West today, but expect Peja Stojakovic and Desmond Mason to step up a bit.
Hornets to get a jump in the early going.

NO/OK Hornets -4 First Half -112 for 2 units(L)

Hornets finished the game covering -7 and missed the half by 2 point to win.
0-1 -2.24 units

NBA Sunday

I see the players are on Houston against Miami tomorrow. Rockets do match up well and their inside game is working. Keep an eye on that game, but I'm not pulling the trigger yet.

Hornets will be in town playing the Clippers, maybe I'll go see that game, and I guess there was no reason not to stay on the back to back team fade as Portland climbed back to take out the Hornets or should I say Zach Randolph beat the Hornets. Coach Scott said the team will look back this loss and kick themselves in March. Now the Hornets are already back in Los Angeles getting ready for the Clippers. Los Angeles will have the front court advantage and should dominate the paint, but they will be surprised by Hornets low post led by Tyson Chandler and how well he creates second chance scoring. I think the Hornets are good with +6.5, but where they really excel is in the opening rounds, the First Quarter, and the Clippers have fell behind in the opening quarter in every single game so far this season.
Keep watch on the quarter play it should be at least +1.5 and will be good to go.

First Quarter Scoring Log:
Dates: Hornets
11/01 16-26 @BOS(+10 pts)
11/03 20-26 @IND(+6 pts)
11/05 15-26 HOU(+11 pts)
11/07 17-29 GSW(+12 pts)
11/09 35-34 @GSW(+1 pts)
11/10 38-13 @POR(+25 pts)
Date: Clippers
11/01 20-24 @PHO(-4 pts)
11/02 24-18 DEN(-6 pts)
11/04 26-20 PHO(-6 pts)
11/06 22-20 POR(-2 pts)
11/08 32-21 DAL(-11 pts)

HOR +1.5 First Quarter at -106 for 1 unit(L)
---------------------------------------------
NJ Nets at Washington Wizards. This game total opened around 203.5 and has been dropping since mid night eastern. I look at the number on Washington game and they have sailed Over not even close with the exception of the opener in Cleveland. Richard Jefferson is out with sprained ankle out indefinately. I would classify Nets as an Under team and prefer to keep the scoring in check, but will take the opportunity when their players are open and hot. For the game I agree with the decline of Total both teams allowing too many points to their respective last opponents. So coming into this game both teams should be focused on not allowing the easy shots in the paint and careful on the turn overs, but the game number is not of interest to me. What I see is the spiked number for the first quarter for both teams and by reading this total should open at 51. Nets are averaging 27 points while Wizards are averaging 33 points I'll look to take the First Quarter Over.

NJN/WAS Over 48.5 First Quarter at -120 for 1 unit(L)

These plays are not dropping in. Back to the drawing boards.
0-2 -2.26 units

NBA Saturday

I'm looking to mix the short games for Saturday. The target selections are Jazz, Magic and Suns for the 1st Quarter.

For the over night line I've taken the Bulls against the back to back Pacers.
The line moved up to -5 since and if it keeps moving I may go for the middle.
For now Bulls are in play.

CHI -4 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Yeah the line's moving. Now Pacers can be had for +7.5 on the buy and this game will be a play on the MIDDLE.

IND +7.5 at -118 for 1 unit(L)
CHI -2 First Quarter at -109 for 1 unit(L)

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The short game will be on the Suns. D'Antoni ripped his team for playing soft I'll look for Phoenix to come out hot.

PHO -3 First Quarter at -105 for 2 units(L)
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The middle was very close, but the day is going down the sink.
I'll add last game 2nd Half.

DET/GSW Under 99 at -108 for 2 units(L)
Wow, last shot killed it. Not feeling the games see if I can bounce back tomorrow.

1-4 -5.53 units

NBA Friday

Just looking over tomorrow and saw NYK/HOU Under 196.5 at -109 which is a luring Under most likely to drop lower. But before you take the early line remember that stretch of Knicks Over last season. Rockets are suspect for Over as well with T-Mac warming up to the games. No selection yet.

Early play on the over night line is Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics.
The selection is

UTA/BOS Under 199 at -105 for 2 units(L)
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Adding couple of short plays for the two late west coast games.
First I'm laying off the Portland play. Like the Hornets energy and this team feels different in the early going.
NO/OK HORNTETS -1 First Quarter -105 for 1 unit(W)

Second Detroit at Los Angeles Lakers. Detroit is having problems, but expect some urgency on their offense. Lakers 1st Quarter scoring has been amazing.

DET/LAL First Quarter Over 49 at -108 for 1 unit(L)
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Second Half Detroit at Lakers.

DET +5 Second Half at +107 for 1 unit(W)

Feeling little preoccupied and it did not help with Sportsline posting wrong scores. Be back later for Saturday games.
2-2 -1.18 units

NBA Thursday

Small card for Thursday. Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers has posted a luring Over total at 182 which has been on the move anywhere from 182.5 to 184. On the surface the number is very low, but consider the depth, all the option Bulls have to slow LBJ, how tough the low post will be and in conclusion points will not come cheap. This is what I played on the overnight. Line might move higher maybe weaken and retreat, but my thought here is Under. Both teams are coming off an high scoring games. Chicago is showing flashes of dominance, but Cavs own their home court. I expect this to unfold low and tight.

CHI/CLE UNDER 185.5 at -119 for 1 unit
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Adding Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns.
Both teams are playing the 2nd leg of back to back. Suns have played a draining match against the Spurs with OT in a game they should of won with one more free throw. Not only that they have Steve Nash hurt and Raja Bell out for today. The books are not adjusting they are raising the stock for tonight, maybe the fade is on the Mavs. Totals have come down accordingly, but sides still suggest Suns win. I'll go against that theory.

DAL +5 at +100 for 1 unit

NBA Wednesday

No need to take this early the line should improve a bit.
Go against Lakers on the 2nd of back to back against the Blazers. Current line is POR +4.5 and Total is 199 Under looks good too. If you want to grab the overnight line take the Under.

LAL/POR UNDER 199 at -110 for 2 units(W)
POR +1.5 First Quarter +101 for 1 unit(W)
POR +2.5 First Half +107 for 1 unit(W)
POR +5.5 -111 for 2 units(W)
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Although I don't have strong loyalty to particular NBA team, if I had to pick I go with the LA teams, but I would have to say Dallas has been my regular season strong suit. The Mavs have stalled in the early going and sometimes that can be a good thing. Like getting value pricing in Los Angeles. Mavs are in a spot to make a statement.

DAL ML +137 for 1 unit(L)
----------------------------------------------
This will be a good game to watch Suns at Spurs. Let me see if the Totals can catch a winner.

PHO/SAS OVER 203.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

Oh crap forgot to republish the post, sorry people the Portland picks didn't appear, but you know I was hot on the play.

So far so good, but Mavs are behind in the 3rd Quarter now.

Not looking good 5 min. in the 4th quarter.

Loser....

Not bad 5-1 +6.07 units

NBA Tuesday

OK my system is back and running. Sorry I missed Monday, winning play was on POR/LAC U196, but that's just reference to let you know the selections are hitting it's mark.

Back to the Hornets. Golden State takes down the Mavs in first leg of back to back surprising many. Second leg of back to back will show some Dallas hangover.

NO/OK HORNETS -6 at -118 (buy 0.5) for 2 units(L)

That was close, but Warriors closed in the 4th.
0-1 -2.36 units

NBA Sunday

I'm having computer problems, CPU running very high and everything is loading super slow, so I'm keeping this short. If you've been following my recent writing maybe the play is obvious.
Just waiting for better pricing, but you can bet your ass the play will be on NO/OK HORNETS.
Be back when I pull the trigger.

Might want to wait longer, but like I said computer is acting up and don't want to chance it.

HORNETS -1.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Saturday

OK lets stay on the second leg of back to back fade on Boston Celtics.
Will be giving up some points, but I think the differential will be closer to 10.
Arenas went 2-12 in Wizs last game against Cleveland (97-94 loss) and odds are he'll comes back against the Celtics. Keep in mind Gilbert averaged 30+ points against the C's last year. Now the current ATS of 7 appears huge with these two teams matching up tight, but C's are historically dismal in November games.
Wizards have bright season ahead they should come into this game with a killer instinct.

WAS -6.5 (buy 0.5) at -124 for 1 unit(W)
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Advise of warning on people loving Cleveland on Saturday. Cavs have taken 2 tough match ups, Wizards and Spurs, and coming into Charlotte with an skimpy -4 (opened at -3.5) Cavs might take this game lightly.
I'm not backing the Cats here making this game a pass. Morrison is good, but Wallace should be topping the score for the Bobcats.
You know the Cats should of taken care of Memphis Friday night. Nothing like 4th quarter collapse to leave a bitter taste maybe some motivation against the NBA elite. Public will be all over the Cavs and they do look strong closing the games. I'm just not biting this worm.

Should of taken the Cats. Public got slaughtered here.
Wiz takes care of biz and that's all that counts.
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Friday

I guess Denver should be pissed for blowing that game in Los Angeles last night. Will it translate to much determined team back home for the second of back to back? I think the effort will appear in the first half of the game and dissipate into the second half.

MIN +5.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

I'm very tempted to play Minny 2nd Half, but I'll hold off.

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Thursday

There's a hot match in Dallas with Spurs and Mavs. This is going to be good and Spurs are getting fat +5 points at AA Arena. I think Spurs are something like 9-0 last 9 seasons opener, better look that up, it's kind of a revenge situation although they met in San Antonio preseason where Mavs were waxed. Dallas is something like 5-0 season opener, just off the top of my head don't hold me to it, Dirk's been playing FIBA in the summer. Duncan is supposed to be in best shape of his career with his offseason workout. Both teams look to be defensive and the Total for this game is not out yet.
I'm thinking of just watching this game.

Sticking with 2nd leg of back to back team fade.

DEN +5 -115 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Wednesday

Orlando catching da Bulls on the 2nd of back to back. Bulls will be coming off a tough match up against Miami Heat. Orlando looking to take the edge.

ORL -3 at +100 for 1 unit(W)

--------------------------------------------

Toronto looks balanced much better. The top ATS winning team from last season opening on the road getting +5.5 Lets see if they can hang with the Nets.

TOR +5.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)
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Waiting on Warriors line to come out. They will play the Lakers on second of back to back and this Warriors team will be too much for the Lakers after battling the Suns. Ofcourse I'll consider where the spread lands.
Decided to go with the shrot game.

GSW -2 First Quarter -105 for 1 unit(L)
LAL +5 Second Half +100 for 1 unit(W)

Adding:
TOR +7 +100 for 1 unit(L)
ORL ML +116 for 1 unit(W)
Leaving Olrando ATS as is with -3
------------------------------------------------
Nothing has changed my view of Suns play, inside is weak and 2nd halfs drop, they are not helping the Over.

LAC/PHO Under 213.5 -119 for 1 unit(L)
LAC/PHO Second Half OVER 101.5 -121 for 2 units(W)
PHO Second Half -4 -110 for 1 unit(W)
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So much for keeping the games light. I still like Washington ATS +6, Utah ATS +1 or Money Line, Pacer/Cats U194....Enough!
Sit back chill and watch the games.

Losing focus and my mind is wondering. Not good need to sharpen the picks down to one good one and let most of these games play out.
Thought I caught the middle of LAC/PHO total for sure. General rule to keep in mind is play the big swings on 1st to 2nd half's ATS or Totals and look for big differentials from the original game line. Consider keeping tabs on 1st & 2nd half's team performance. Last season Phoenix was a greater 1st quarter & 1st half team. Today's performance was just the opposite of what they've been doing, surging in the 2nd half, but Clips made some bonehead plays and gave up the low post.

5-4 +1.76 units

Opening with....

Please take a moment for Red Auerbach, RIP.

I'll take the light approach in the early going. It may not be a very clever pick, but go with the Suns in Los Angeles. Lakers will be 70% at best with Kobe maybe better off without him. He should let this go as his knees are still sore, doesn't have the speed and this could backfire with him getting hurt.
As much as Kobe may want to be in the game Jackson should have a short leash. Now the Suns have played 2 below average games against the Lakers in preseason, without Kobe, and Lakers dogged the Suns high scoring game.
Phoenix needs to restore order and have a impact game, quick drive to the inside and kick out beyond the arc for the swish.
Suns 112 - Lakers 94 type game and yes look for the Total number to go up
and hit the Under at 208 or better.

PHO -3.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
Adding:
PHO 1st Quarter -1 at -104 for 1 unit(W)

Still have my trigger with Total now at 208.5 Think there's a chance for 210.
This line moved above 210 with the buy and I got greedy looking for 212 or 212.5 then the Tricket Treaters started and before I knew it the window was closed....what stroke of luck. I would of never guessed Lakers running up the score like that. I'm making adjustments on Orlando and Toronto for tomorrow and oh yeah, Warriors too.
1-1 -0.10 units

NBA Preseason Oct. 24th

Let's go with Pistons at home coming off a embarrassing loss to Denver.
Pistons looking bit more offensive, but still tough inside. Wizards are on the 2nd of back to back with strong showing in 1st leg, Arenas scored 29 points in 27:40 min, Jamison played 39:16 min. and Butler 33:55 min. in 110 - 105 high scoring win against the Hawks. The scheme of things may change for Washington whereas Piston look to test their full strength and bench is solid.

DET -4 at -102 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Preseason Oct. 22

HOUSTON ROCKETS -2.5 at -111 for 2 units(W)

NBA Preseason Oct. 21, 2006

Pinnacle NBA lines are today's link.

Single unit plays.
Orlando Magic -3 at -105(W) against visiting Memphis Grizzlies

Cleveland Cavs -3 at -109(L) against visitng Atlanta Hawks

San Antonio Spurs -2 at -109(W) against visiting Miami Heat

Denver Nuggets +2 at -105(L) visiting Milwaukee Bucks

2-2 -0.14 units

Friday NBA Preseason games

Lines are not out yet, but on the early look I like the Bull at home against T-Wolves and Sonics at home against Portland.

Further research and these two will be on my game watch.

Bulls and Sonics both lost as the biggest ATS favorites. Did I miss couple of bullets? I think so these lines were at -4 when I looked and it didn't interest. Went off doing something else and never got back online in time. Cleveland looks strong, but keep in mind it's human nature to pick teams off the top of your head and end up with the day's heavy favorite that's likely going to get hammered by the public which is not a good thing.

What a Shot Baby

NBA is almost here and I'll be gunning for the books.

Some development to note on the upcoming NBA Euro with Toronto Raptors against Maccabi Tel-Aviv. This line has moved from Toronto -10 to -13.5 since the opening and if your familiar with basketball lines this is a huge line move.
I'm not aware of any Maccabi injuries or changes in the line up, but I do know Raptors are improved. Do they deserve a bigger spread than the Suns? That remains to be seen. I may or may not have a play here, but watch these Raps they were the top ATS money makers last season.

Maybe Batis will have some thoughts to add.

Raps were lights out 118-84

-----------------------------------------------------------
For Oct. 19th Thursday NBA Pre-Season.
Let's get some warm ups in.

Mavericks at home taking the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. Dallas will play the weak link, practice used my many NBA teams in preseason, no Dirk, Stackhouse, Jason Terry (coaches decision) Dampier (sore hip) Harris (hammy) Bucks will have a line up much closer to their regulars, but coming in here on second of back to back after getting spanked by the Rockets.

Look for lower than average scoring here. Totals are not out yet.
Also players are not under heavy minutes in preseason games and back to back impact is not the same as in regular season. Bucks getting +2.5 against Mavs B-team is very good and money line is worth a shot.

MIL +2.5 at +102 for 1 unit(L)
MIL ML at +127 for 1 unit(L)
Bucks scored only 4 points in 3rd quarter, WTF.
Under was money, but did not get a chance to post.
---------------------------------------------------------

Like Clippers to take out the Lakers in pregame -2 points. Current Lakers does not scare anyone.

LAC -2 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
Oh 91-90 Clippers
0-3 -3.10 units

NBA Euro Suns vs 76ers

What do we have going on with this game in Cologne? Line move to 76ers +5.5 from +6.5 with money still moving to 76er's at -114? This is worth an investigation...OK I see the line discrepancy with Greek at +4 points to 76ers.
Total currently at 214.5 (-105 at Pinny) is something you should watch with eyes and ears wide open D'Antoni said he still isn't sure which rules NBA, FIBA or a combination of the two will be used in the Suns-76ers game. "I've asked three times and gotten three different answers," he said. "I guess we'll figure it out before we throw it up."

How high is the motivation level for Philadelphia? I'd say not as high as the media makes it out to be, but Iverson and Nash should both improve from their respective last games.

Be back for this one.

I don't feel comfortable with the Suns now, but I did take the score to fall Under. There's too many x-factor players being looked at by the Suns, although I did notice 11 for 31 three pointers. Sixers are looking at different schemes too and I don't think Suns will get that many good looks.

Suns are burning it up 8 for 18 three pointer already at the half. Matrix is already at 20 points and Barbosa 11 points off the bench with only 5:24 minutes. Suns getting too many shot attempts and hitting at 51% clip.
This Under is going to need lots of help.

Check out the stroke of Phoenix Suns 5 guys in double digit and 5 minutes left in 3rd quarter 11 for 24 three pointers wow!

Suns melt down in the 4th! Sixers caught them at 91-91 tie just outside 5 minutes to go.

Sixer win, Sixer win, come from behind in the 4th quarter and the game is
UNDER!
SUNS/SIXERS UNDER 214.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Anything but a Friendly Match

Monday Night Football in mile high snowing Denver, but I'm working on a basketball game far, far away. I'd rather look for a edge in game with little fan fare in North America as long as I have the advantage. Your locals will not have a line for this so you better have a off shore.

For those who view the play write up, but may have missed the comment by Batis on my last selection, let me tell you this is going to be a game Moscow and Tel-Aviv has been waiting for and these two teams have battled very close match ups. So why the -8 points opening line for CSKA? Isn't that too much? The line has come down to -7.5 with slight money to Maccabi at -106 as of my writing. But I think the Book has it right with good chance of CSKA taking this game with easy ATS cover. CSKA is a stronger team this season with Maccabi having a different look I feel it's a rebuilding year.

I'm sure Batis and his friends will be rooting for the home town CSKA.
I hoping the public will bite the seeming big spread +7.5 Maccabi there's still time so I'll watch the line, but I will take CSKA ATS 9:00 Pacific Standard time for the morning match-up here in the States.

Link is the last match of Maccabi vs CSKA download.

CSKA -7.5 +104 for 1 unit(W)
Cover on the final 2 pointer by CSKA no back door trap on this one.
Now Batis can get on with his studies.

San Antonio Spurs in Lyon, France

Another good match up and with Manu Ginobili sitting out the money has shifted strong to Maccabi Tel-Aviv +11 at -130 to Spurs +120 this line opened at +10 with early Spurs money pushing the line to +11. The tell tale signs of each teams previous matches, both teams crushed their opponents, and the ease of which they were able to score also pushed the Total from 190.5 to 191 with decent money build up on the Over at 191. But when I view their respective last games I see that defense was the key in domination especially for the Maccabi Tel-Aviv win. Spurs worked on their half court set for their last practice and my thoughts are Pops will play the basic Spurs solid "D" and patented half court game to win. Not sure about ATS, but no easy points today.

Maccabi Tel-Aviv/San Antonio
Under 191 at +106 for 2 units(W)

The Over money pushed the Total to 193! That was not Sharp money as the wager limit was too low for the Pro's.
1-0 +2.12 units

NBA Euro Tour

Ladies and gentlemen Basketball season is around the corner. NBA teams are getting ready for the season in Europe and Los Angeles Clippers are visiting Moscow.

Khimiki did not threaten the Clippers with all starters in double figures, but final score was 98-91 late charge came within 5 points. Cassell, Tim Thomas and Aaron Williams rested and they'll look for some play time against CSKA and I'm sure Dunleavy's thoughts are not primarily winning, but to observe different schemes, individual skills and to bring NBA entertainment as ambassadors it's still preseason. On the other side CSKA is a powerhouse local team with point guard Theodoros Papaloukas who shined in FIBA and can definitely give preseason Clippers a run for the money.

CSKA +2.5 at -109 for 1 unit(W)
The mark is on the money CSKA win SU.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Game #6. I sure hope we have game #7 in the making and that is the thought among NBA cappers. Players are on DAL money line with lots of juice.
I think Mavs try to take the ball out of Dwayne Wade's hands let the other Heats try to make the shot. Games are progressively getting physical I'll back the First Half and see what develops.

MIA/DAL First Half Under 95.5 at -124 for 2 units(L)
Games are not falling my way. 1 basket away from cashing this and Dirk drives and scores.

MIA 2nd Half +5 at +111 for 1 unit(W)
Wimped out on the 2nd half play, but I was hoping Mavs take it SU so it was a tough play for me. I should of stucked to my gun and wagered at least 2 units. Congrats to Heat and Miami, Miami for Series, Miami for NBA Champions backers, I know there's few of you guys out there.

1-1 -1.37 units

Well that's the end of NBA kinda feeling short changed, but that's the way the ball bounced. Mavs should of taken game #5 in Miami when they lost that game they changed the wagering cycle and players lost focus on how Wade adapted to Dallas, again the last night of NBA burns many good Cappers we all live and learn.

It has been fun and I be back to knock'em down in clutch fashion.

Line was moving to Heat and really tipped when Stackhouse suspention news broke out.
Dallas is still the play you know this one is going to zig zag.
Should be a good game. Fade the public here people.

DAL +2 at -105 for 3 units(W)
DAL ML at +121 for 1 unit(L)
Josh Howard killed the money line blowing the last time out in OT. ATS & ML improved closer to game time so Miami money was heavy. You know the public got massacred not only ATS, but on declining Under. What a bloody day in NBA.
1-1 +2.00 units

Game #4 in Miami. Looking back at game #3 Dallas was bit in cruise control lacking at the start & end. On the other side Heat was giving everything and they deserve that win, but can't be impressed with Heat just edging the Mavs and not covering ATS. Mavs showed higher level of play against the Spurs and Suns yet to be seen in this series. Dallas will be strong out of the gate with intensity. Wade is limping around. Heat will be playing from behind.

DAL +1 First Half at -105 for 2 units(L)
DAL ML First Half at +118 for 1 unit(L)

DAL +0.5 First Quarter at -109 for 2 units(L)
DAL ML First Quarter at +109 for 1 unit(L)
Not only was the tumble nasty I lost my second half posting.
I reversed to Miami +3.5 2nd Half at +111 and also took Total Under 194
in-game at +121 cancelling out any losses, but I apologize to viewers following the plays. Recording losses for published plays.
0-4 -6.28 units

The scoring has been rising over the first two games maybe more Dallas scoring, but this is the NBA championship series with Heat almost a no show in Dallas. The indication here is the 1st quarter total adjustment from 46.5 game #1 Over, 48 game #2 Under and today we have 47 adjusted to the middle. This game tells me the First Half will go Over 93.5 as Heat has been sliding from 2nd quarter on. If Miami can keep the energy up as they should in this situation the Total will exceed this number.

DAL/MIA First Half OVER 93.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)
DAL/MIA OVER 188 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Don't you love it when I'm hot.
2-0 +3.00 units

I'm looking forward to Sunday's game #2.
Look for defensive tone to play out once again.

MIA/DAL UNDER 190 at -123 for 2 units(W)

Sure glad I didn't wager sides cuz I liked Heat to cover ATS.
Under was the correct play.

1-0 +2.00 units

Hi gang.
I've been traveling all day doing the West coast to East coast thing and finally little time to relax. Didn't want to make a play short on time so I passed up a very nice Under. I'm sure everyone saw Dirk take over, but another turn of events was the Dallas defense getting the handle on Suns. I had the Suns team total to score over 99.5 points for game #5 and with score stuck at 98 points there was plenty of time, but Dallas almost shut them down below 100 points it was the last basket 3 pointer by Tim Thomas that made the score 101.
Should of published it, should of played it, should of would of could of.

I'll take this moment to grade my Western Conference wager made on May 20, 2006.

These are the selections I took.
LAC +900 for 1 unit(L)
DAL +258 for 2 units(W)

We are almost at the end of NBA lets finish it strong.
1-1 +4.16 units

Back to Miami for Game No#6.
Little added drama with Dwayne no show for the morning practice.
Nothing like over reaction to take the added edge.
Wade is playing tonight and far as being ineffective, I doubt that.
My guess is Dwayne called in before the practice and talked to Riley,
the conversation might of been something like this....
Dwayne: "Coach do you need me in this morning I feel a slight cold coming on"
Riley: "Are you good for the game tonight?"
Dwayne: "definitely"
Riley: "Get some rest and bring your game tonight alright?"
Dwayne: "You got it coach"

OK, I didn't listen in on the conversation, but it's not far off.

MIA 1st Quarter -1 at -106 for 3 units(W)
MIA 1st Half -2 at -105 for 2 units(W)

I guess Dwayne's feeling pretty sick, but that didn't stop Miami.
2-0 +5.00 units

I'll go with the Suns team total to score their average.
Are you guys watching this move? Suns at Mavs total has come down to a level not seen in this series. All the games coming in Under is driving the money flow to Under. But when the books move 5~6 points that's telling you something, (1) key player not playing (2) books correction which says they have been wrong with their previous numbers. Most of the time it's (1), but not the case today. Are the books admitting to their error? Did they set the bar too high ?
Or how about, books have a Over bias for today's match they feel the game total to exceed 210
that's where Pinnacle opened and it quickly took the Under money. Other books watched Pinny, BetCris and other early lines and just followed.
I want to see another blow for blow scoring game.

PHO TEAM TOTAL OVER 99.5 at -111 for 2 units(W)
PHO/DAL 1st Quarter Over 52.5 at -107 for 3 units(W)
PHO/DAL 1st Half Over 104 at -105 for 2 units(W)

Sometimes you feel like a nut, sometimes you don't.

3-0 +7.00 units

Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons.
This is a elimination game for Pistons at home.
Lets see if the past are any indication for the future.

Scores by Quarters:
Game 4 at Miami American Airlines Arena Monday 5/29:
DET: 17 21 22 18 = 78
MIA: 23 21 18 27 = 89
The big numbers for this game is Dwayne Wade 31 points and big portion of this number is free throws, 15 for 19 attempts. This free throw number inflates to 28 for 47 attempts by Miami so the beating could of been much worse for Detroit. Another differential is fast break points Detroit 2 Miami 11.
The dynamic dual of Wade and Shaq did most of the damage only Haslem is the third player with double digit points. Role players concentrated on defense holding Detroit to 39% shooting. No Detroit starting four scored over 15+ points.

Game 3 at Miami American Airlines Arena Saturday 5/27:
DET: 24 14 24 21 = 83
MIA: 26 23 25 24 = 98
Wire to wire Miami at home. Dwayne Wade 35 points, Shaq 27 points, role players Walker 11, Haslem 10. Domination in the paint Pistons 16 to Heat 50, board Pistons 27 to Heat 40. Detroit guards scored 51 combined points, but low post was all Miami and can't win games that way. Very noticeable on this game was Prince almost no-show.

Game 2 at Palace of Auburn Hills. Thursday, May 25 2006.
MIA: 12 25 19 32 = 88
DET: 25 23 22 22 = 92
Box score tells the story. Detroit came out red hot which was more about shutting down the opponent scoring their possession then pacing the rest of the game almost getting caught at the end, losing ATS. Wade and Shaq got their combined 53 points, Walker got 11 points, but forced a lot of bad shots taking 3 for 12 attempts and 1 for 7 from 3 point land. Role players took tough shots and didn't make many. Detroit starting four plus Big Ben did not give up the paint or rebounds, played balanced ball on both ends and got to the free throw line better than Heat.

Game 1 at Palace of Auburn Hills. Tuesday, May 23 2006.
MIA: 33 15 18 25 = 91
DET: 25 19 17 25 = 86
Interesting game on the part of rested Miami where role players exceeded the dynamic dual, with foul troubles, in performance and time on the floor.
Heat came out hot and paced the rest of the way saving Wade and Shaq the wear and tear. Heat shot the ball exceptionally well and controlled the low post.

Everybody likes Heat +6 ATS, Pinny opened at +7 moved to +6.5 and now +6, as Miami have taken all ATS and all Unders with Detroit in Conference finals. ATS has been steady with Detroit getting numbers due to elimination which is not a surprise, but Totals have been on the decline with each match up falling under 181.5 and this number is more about Detroit's inability to score consistently with the starting four, Billups, Rip, Rasheed and Prince, in higher percentage. The tempo is certainly what Pistons are use to and if' they're not giving up the paint or the board, which I don't expect for the elimination game, Detroit needs to feed Prince and Rasheed to execute and attack the basket not just Chauncy and Rip. I have a feeling Flip and Rasheed has worked out their differences for the good of the team. The zone defense Pistons used in the 3rd quarter of last game got them back in it for awhile, Flip says he'll be using it more, but Heat adjusted Wade took over and Miami scored 27 points in the 4th quarter.

So is the public correct in playing the momentum of Heat and the dynamic dual or Detroit due to make their stand at home possibly covering ATS? I like to see how this plays out too, but I'd say -6 to -7 is going to be very close maybe SU Pistons win no cover. Nothing I'd put my money on, but if Miami's going to win it it'll be in Miami Game 6.

My take is this. 2 units across.
Outcome prediction: 89-97 Detroit.

MIA/DET First Quarter 45.5 at -101 for 2 units(L)
(Priced at -101 waiting on even or better - never got better)
MIA/DET Fourth Quarter 45.5 at +105 for 2 units(L)

MIA/DET 1st Half Over 89 at -109 for 2 units(W)
(Priced at -125 with 1.5 points buy waiting on -120 or better)

MIA/DET Over 179.5 at -121 for 2 units(L)

Don't like the progress of this game. I'm reversing the Total for 2nd Half and taking Detroit to cover 2nd Half.

MIA/DET 2nd Half Under 90.5 +105 for 3 units(W)

DET 2nd Half -2.5 +100 for 3 units(W)

3-3 +1.71 units

Gone fishing be back monday night.

We're still playing the hard court in Texas.

DAL 1st Quarter -2.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

Feeling my way for the Conference Finals. Detroit failed me last night.
I'm leaning on Dallas today, but I'm going to let the 1st half play out.
Mavs should remain the same, come out aggressive to the basket in the first half and clamp down for the 2nd half. Suns are going to come out guns blazing and try to steam roll through Dallas.
Taking a strong 1st quarter trend.

PHO/DAL 1st Quarter Over 56.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)

That was a great match up. MLB & NBA combined perfecto!
1-0 +2.00 units

Miami at Detroit Eastern Conference Finals game #1.
The rematch everyone was expecting. The players are saying rested Heat if they're going to fight they must take one in Detroit. They're ready, willing and able. The dynamic dual of Shaq and Dwayne will bring their game to the Palace. Heat with +5.5 points are the way to go......
I'm not all the way sold on Miami with 6 days without play.
Detroit was not all there in the Cleveland series, but even in bad times Pistons defense kept them in game and ultimately played Detroit basketball to take game 7 in dominant fashion. When this team comes to life it's tough to compete especially at the Palace. The dynamic dual will get their scores, but the supporting cast of Heat may get shutdown.
That's my devils advocate for those thinking easy Miami money.
But I'm not all for giving up -5.5 points either.
I will go with the Detroit Playoff home 1st quarter record 5-2 ATS with recorded wins by minimum margin of 6 points.

DET 1st Quarter -1.5 at -110 for 2 units(L)
Players were right Miami did bring their game on the road.
0-1 -2.20 units

I do have three future wager which will depend on today's outcome with Clips and Mavs. For the Western Conference and Mavs at Spurs will decide the payout on that series.

My thoughts on Dallas at Spurs for today.
The series comes to this and 81.7% home court 7th game winner is a very big number combined with Spurs 15-4 ATS tied in playoff series, but Mavs are getting points tonight with 12-3 ATS after a loss as favs. I already have Mavs to move on and I'm playing this on the First Half.
Mavs have never trailed in this series at the Half and they are 5-1 ATS (1st half) for the series.

DAL 1st Half +2 at -106 for 1 unit(W)

I knew I should of gone bigger instead of smaller. My coming off ATS loss Cavs must of gave me some jitters. It's 2 units or better rest of the way folks.
Yeah Dallas baby. Let's ride them to the bank!
1-0 +1.00 unit

This is the result of my arbitrage play on San Antonio & Dallas series.
Total exposure 6 units, 3 units on both sides, with risk hedge to ZERO the middle is the profit.
WIN DALLAS Wager Balance(+151 x 2) + (+191 x 1) = 4.93 units
Loss SAN ANTONIO Wager Balance (+124 x 1) + (+171 x 2) = 3.00 units
Gain +1.93 units

Here's my Sunday game.
I'm skipping the details we're all students of the game learning from each match up. The games that go deep into the series are due to tight plays and good adjustments. Perceptions are the pitfall. No one's laying down with everything on the line. Cleveland has earned it's spot in game 7 they should not be getting this many points. For my comfort level I'll take the added 1 point buy.

CLE +10.5 at -123 for 2 units(L)

Played the line right, but Pistons came to life in vintage form in the 2nd half.
Very impressive recycling defense by Detroit.

0-1 -2.46 units

Before I forget to publish the pick for Western Conference.
The timing is right as the odds have improved.

DALLAS +258 for 2 units
LOS ANGELES +900 for 1 unit

Like the Spurs or Suns? You should of taken them before game 5.
How about the East? Nothing interesting except for the Cavs at +1300 and that's only because of the odds. I think Detroit will emerge, but I will give the Cavs ATS in game 7 a hard look.

Dejavu Pistons. We've been down this road before.
I look at the past two games and Detroit contributed to their loss as much as James involving his team mates. Pistons clearly underestimated the Cavs.
Detroit heading into hostile territory and many would have second thoughts laying points on the road after dropping 2 SU and shooting like high school kids. Now comes the test of will to score with focus and to dominate the inside.
Pistons are a team of balance better than Lebron and his disciples.

I'll take the opening quarter.

DET -1.5 at -105 for 2 units(L)
Big Ben and Prince missed the basket at the end of quarter to lose by the hook.
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Am I having second thoughts on closing out the SAS/DAL Series with even wager on both sides? Not at all. Never cry about making more than what you've already made. But I do like the Mavs all the way to take Western Conference and take the Championship. Spurs are reaching in every game and Terry being out is not going to make this any easier, maybe lower scoring, but Spurs are going to have to scratch and claw to pull this one in Dallas.
The shooting percentage did come down in game, 2nd half, and that was pure San Antonio energy. I'll watch the 1st half for a spot on 2nd half Under.
I'll play the side 1st Half.

MAV ML 1st Half at -118 for 2 units(W)

DAL/SAS 2nd Half UNDER 97.5 at -118 for 2 units(W)*Buy 1.5 points
DAL/SAS 2nd Half Under 96 at +108 for 1 unit(W)

Sorry, didn't republish the index for the 2nd half additions and it didn't show up. Hopefully you guys had the same idea.

3-1 +2.92 units

We are back for game 6 in Los Angeles Staples Center.
Phoenix Suns the Pacific Division Champions are they worthy? Do they have enough on this short turn around?
You know I would consider the Under very seriously. Watch the totals the sharps are eyeing this.
But if your interested in taking advance position Clips will have the edge with home, depth and athletism. Elton will be a man on mission and Clips will control the boards.
Phoenix has variety of reasons to be lacking. Suns will want to play opportunistic ball, but not so physical with their starters worn out pretty good. Suns have a cushion in the back of their minds, the final game at home if necessary with time to heal, maybe the Suns bench get bit more involved giving the starters some rest. Whatever the reasons Clips will be the high energy team coming out of the gate.

LAC 1st Half -2 at -122 for 3 units(W) *0.5 points buy
You know I had my finger to trigger the Under on this game. Than I lost my window, others were posting Under the Total started to move down and I lost interest.....I was lucky.
Luck is the residual of hard work.

1-0 +3.00 units

I said this couple of days ago and I will play the Mavs at Spurs continuing display of breaking down the defensive scheme against each other.
Key is the Guards creating paths and Dallas is doing this extremely well.
I don't think Mavs will come out complacent they see this series as the true Western Championship and they know the Spurs are not going away quietly.
San Antonio can score with the best big 3 players in game 4 Manu Ginobili with 26 points, Tony Parker scored a career playoff-high 33 points in and Tim Duncan has been averaging 31 points per game in the series.
Now does the teams focus in on defense claiming their opponents scored too easily, too many? Of course, but I don't think they've solved the part of "How to defend". Too many players are stepping up. I want to see the percentages of key stats move down in game and I think that's what the Books want to see before they bring down the O/U Total to the average 185.
I think the median here is 50 point quarters and if the clamp down is coming tonight it'll come in the 2nd half. Game Total is sharp and Over is very public play.

DAL/SAS 1st Quarter Over 48.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
DAL/SAS 1st Half Over 96.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)

1st Quarter is heavy with Spur backers.
I'll take Mavs with points.

DAL 1st Quarter +1.5 at +115 for 1 unit(L)
I got to stop staring at these opening lines. Just couldn't help myself watching the 1st quarter money flow to Spurs. That didn't have any work except to fade the money flow. I should of added the unit to 1st quarter Over instead as that price improved there too.
Oh well, it's the gains that count.

2-1 +1.00 units

Tuesday, Nets are hanging by a thread and to make matters worst their flight had to be diverted to Orlando because of bad weather making their arrival into Miami much later than expected. Nets may not be out, but they are mentally fatigued. Today there will be adjustments made on defending Dwayne Wade as he has caused much of the damage. This may take some focus off Shaq, making Big Daddy a likely suspect to exceed his recent scoring output.
Keep in mind Nets lost the last game in the 4th quarter as Miami made 3 huge stops and extended their lead, but it was the Nets who started the game with energy dominating the paint and getting the fast break points. The Heat took over the lead with 3:12 minutes left in first quarter. Nets also made a 6-0 run to tie Miami at the start of 3rd quarter, but again ran out of steam. Clearly Collins need to shoot and make those short range jumpers and Carter need to look for a open man on the double teams. What I see is the game to start in basket for basket fashion like the last two games and Over to clear as it has for this series. When your mentally fatigued, in this situation, defense suffers.

5/14 1st Qt. 27-24 (Heat Over)
5/12 1st Qt. 27-27 (Nets ATS Over)
5/10 1st Qt. 41-19 (Heat Over)
5/08 1st Qt. 38-21 (Nets Over)

Taking NJN/MIA 1st Quarter Over 48 -109 for 2 units(W)

Did you guys watch the Clippers at Suns game....Oh my God! Doublt Over-time Suns in the clutch taking LA backers, many at the Covers forum, money.
I was full of opinions, but glad I didn't post any suggestions.
Loved the 2nd half Under 107 in good old fade the public with Clips scoring percentage dropping in the 2nd quarter.
Also liked the Suns -1 for the 2nd half for same reason.
Double OT kills a perfect Under.
resurgent Clips storm back from 19 back in the 3rd goes to double OT,
2nd half 66-67 Suns Push.

Hell, published play goes perfect. I'm dialed into NBA taking short break from MLB.

1-0 +2.00 units

Hope everybody is doing well.

My thoughts for Monday will be on Pistons vs Cavaliers. Definitely a bounce back on the scoring Detroit with 77 points on 39% shooting and 16 turn overs. This is Pistons worst game in the playoffs and they will return to form.

DET 1st Quarter -1.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
DET 1st Half -3 at -110 for 2 units(L)

I've made couple of prop plays at Covers forum, but you know all players are superstitious and I'm not going to jinx myself by posting plays everywhere.
The prop play is ....
Billups -1.5 assists Over LBJ -108 at 1 unit(L)
-------------------------------------------------------------
My Dallas & San Antonio series worked out nicely and I will lock in the money
with Spurs +171 for the remaining 2 units to even both sides wagered in plus money.

SPURS for the series +171 for 2 units
--------------------------------------------------------------
Late addition:
I'll hit this before game time as the Over is getting the money flow.
SAS/DAL 1st Quarter Under 48 at -100 for 2 units(W)
---------------------------------------------------------------
I watched the 2nd Half line open at Pinny and I had it pegged to open at 93~94 so when it came out at 96 U -108 I stalled. The scoring percentage has been climbing since the 1st quarter and figured the play on Over, but while I tinkered with buying points or taking the straight Over the price started to climb. I laid off, but it seems these two teams have so much understanding for defense they can break it down and score.

2-2 -0.28 units

Happy Mothers Day.
Sundays are busy sports day and I was going to take my mother to (MLB) SEA/LAA game, but that would of been too easy. She could read that one so I will make myself available and go out for dinner instead. Before I go the take today on the hardcourt is Clips rebounding to return hard. Clips with their size advantage combined with test of wills for Clips to play with an lead.
Keeping in mind Clips advantage was erased by poor FT shooting last game and 3 pointers can always rain down with the Suns I will play the early rounds.

LAC -1.5 1st Quarter at -112 for 1 unit(W)
LAC -2.5 1st Half at -109 for 2 units(W)

Elton Brand keeps lighting it up.
2-0 +3.00 units

The games are out of order because that's the way I took them.
I heard about Larry Hughes brother passing away, my condolences, but it is also swaying the wager line. Thus the swing back to Detroit.
I'm letting it ride.

I'll play the zig zag following two single sided games.

NJN -0.5 First Quarter -118 for 1 unit(L)
NJN ML -131 for 2 units(L)
PHO +3.5 -100 for 2 units(W)

Like to go UNDER at New Jersey too, but will wait on that one.

Good luck Players.

MIA/NJN 2nd Half Under 94 at +108 for 2 units(W)

PHO/LAC 1st quarter fell Under 55. This game too looks Under for second half.

Stand by for 2nd half selection.

PHO/LAC 2nd Half UNDER 106 at -109 for 3 units(W)
PHO +3 2nd Half -106 for 1 unit(W)

4-2 +3.36 units
----------------------------------------------------------------
The money on the table. Spurs vs Mavs series: 3 units on Dallas
Wager Balance(151 x 2) + (191 x 1)Average unit wager +164.3

Now that Spurs are +124 for the series I could lock this in, but where's the fun in that. Dallas pulls the first game at home and this could get jucier, but it could go the other way with well rested spurs. I'll take a unit here.

SAS Series Win +124 for 1 unit

Saturday selection Detroit at Cleveland.
If the Cavs are to win one this would be the spot.
Coming off a ATS win with 4th quarter scoring frenzy by LBJ.

Take the Cavs as the home dog.

CLE +4 at -112 for 3 units(W)
CLE ML +165 for 1 unit(W)

Saturday morning addition:
Take the 1st Quarter Under the number as Detroit has run away from the gate in this series and Cavs will not let that happen here at Quicken Loans. The 1st is the key quarter to set the tone Cavs must clamp down from the get go.

DET/CLE 1st Quarter UNDER 47 at -111 for 2 units(W)
CLE +5.5 at -123 for 2 units(W) *buy 1 point

Good game!
I also played Spurs with points for game and 2nd half. 2nd Half Under 98 was my only loss and my basket gains for today is 12.00 units plus.
Spurs and Mavs series wager is looking very nice.

4-0 +8.65 units

Back on the hardcourt. Had lots of thoughts last night as I faded the public only to lose silly. If I wanted to do that again I could go under with Clippers at Suns and the rising total, but I'm not playing against the public.

Heat and Clips are in line to take tonight's games.
Heat on tripple revenge angle is above 70% in ATS win.
Nets short handed and Shaq maybe older, but still give you 2~3 outstanding game in any series.
Last game Nets just ran away out of the gate, this game Nets will be contained.

MIA -7 at -111 for 2 units(W)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Clips have their strongest game in the 2nd quarter. They are undefeated in 2nd quarter.
Suns playoff 2nd quarter record : 2(W) - 6(L)

LAC +1 2nd Quarter -105 for 2 units(L)
LAC 2nd Quarter ML +120 for 1 unit(L)
LAC +4.5 at -115 for 2 units(W)

2nd Half:
LAC +7 at -115 for 2 units(W)
LAC/PHO UNDER 109 at -110 for 1 unit(W) *1.5 points buy

4-2 +3.90 units

Watch the line for Dallas at San Antonio Total now at 181.5 at Over -112 from Pinny. I see few books have already moved to 182. The opening line was 179.5 at Pinny and 180 at BetCris, the two books with pretty sharp opening line.
If your thinking just 90'ish scoring to take the Over money beware.
The smooth running Mavs hit a brick wall with Spurs that was supposed to be worn out. Though Mavs lead most of the way, covering ATS across the board, when push came to shove the game turned defensive and Spurs pulled out the win.
The playoff games maybe about zig zag theory, but I don't see these two teams tinkering too much with offense.

The Under trend is very strong.
Under is 7-1-0 in Mavericks last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1-0 in Mavericks last 5 playoff road games.
Under is 6-2-0 in Mavericks last 8 vs. NBA Southwest.
Under is 8-3-0 in Mavericks last 11 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 5-2-0 in Mavericks last 7 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 5-2-0 in Mavericks last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 5-2-0 in Mavericks last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 14-6-0 in Mavericks last 20 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-0-0 in Spurs last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 5-0-0 in Spurs last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-0-0 in Spurs last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 6-1-0 in Spurs last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.
Under is 5-1-0 in Spurs last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 4-1-0 in Spurs last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1-0 in Spurs last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1-0 in Spurs last 5 overall.
Under is 4-1-0 in Spurs last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 4-1-0 in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.
Under is 5-2-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Since the line is moving towards my favor I will wait.

Almost 10:00 PST and I might have missed a good spot about 30 minutes ago.
Bought 1 point

DAL/SAS UNDER 183 at -123 for 1 unit(L)

Spurs have no energy. I guess the Kings series is now catching up with them.
But the series money is looking interesting.
1-0 -1.23 units
--------------------------------------------------------------
Keep track of the money on the table. What I'm looking for is the money in the middle. Added another unit.

DAL Series +191 for 1 unit
Wager Balance(151 x 2) + (191 x 1)
Average unit wager +164.3

Wish I played this at the open the price has been rising and if you like it too better hit it soon. LAC/PHO with Clips itching will come with high hopes, but their defense will elude them early and Suns will be revving.
The Suns cutters may get contested in the paint, but when Suns are playing the way they are playing the outside shots will fall. This does not mean Clips scoring will be hurt Clips can pound the inside, Cory is explosive, Vlad is playing better in L.A. hitting the long distance, Sam running the show and back court can hit the short jumpers. Defense for Clips will come around after the opening jitters.
My best take here is the opening quarter to sail over the number and coast into 1st half Over.

LAC/PHO 1st Quarter Over 53.5 at -115 for 2 units(W)
LAC/PHO 1st Half Over 106.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
Feeling lucky with these two as I scaled it the wrong way. The numbers climbed to take the Over wire to wire including second half Over.
2-0 +3.00 units

Two games on Sunday and I will make two selections.
NBA on ABC, early game is the Texas brawl where I kinda like the Under, but I'm going with Dallas and taking the points. I'm going to watch the line see if San Antonio money comes in. Looking at both halves.

Bought the point for the half.
MAV +3.5 1st Half -118 for 1 unit(W)
Bought half point for the game.
MAV +5 -118 for 2 units(W)

----------------------------------------------------------------
Second game is Under for the first half. Like the fact Pistons poured 122 points in their last game and are well rested. Like the fact Cavs played OT in their last two games. Like the fact Pistons went on a big 1st half run in their last meeting. Watching this one too and I will buy 1.5 points on 1st half under.

If the price improves I'll go another unit.
CLE/DET 1st Half UNDER 94.5 -131 for 1 unit (L)

2-1 +1.69 units

---------------------------------------------------------------

Thinking Mavs & Spurs series has money in the middle.

MAVS for series against the Spurs +151 for 2 units

.

Making this short.
This game will start slow maybe gain momentum, but last game was slowing before the OT.
I think the money is the First Half which everyone is guessing the other way.
I can hear the public thinking "this game is going to start hot!" it's not, it'll be a clock eater and Koby will be patient.
Watch the line it's already moved higher from 103.5 I'll pick my spot.

If your asking which game? There's only one.

Yeah baby, I'm in.

LAL/PHO 1st Quarter Under 52 +118 for 2 units(W)
LAL/PHO 1st Half Under 105.5 -130 for 3 units(W)

Very disappointing game. Good thing I didn't take side I thought Lakers would play it tight.
2-0 +5.36 units

This is what stands out today.

Under is 3-0-0 in Spurs last 3 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1-0 in Spurs last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 15-6-1 in Spurs last 22 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-0-0 in Kings last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1-0 in Kings last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
Under is 7-2-0 in Kings last 9 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 7-3-0 in Kings last 10 home games.
Under is 7-3-0 in Kings last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 11-5-0 in Kings last 16 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 5-1-0 in the last 6 meetings in Sacramento.

Yes there are countering Over trends, but elimination threat for Kings after double digit loss they will defend the paint, no easy baskets and put backs, Kings will probably not let Ginobilli dive to the basket on his drives as easily as he did Tuesday, instead giving him the outside shot.
Spurs will match up defensively and will not give either bringing this game to grinding tempo. I'm still watching the lines, but will hit this at opportune time.

SAS/SAC UNDER 190.5 at -131 for 2 units(W)
Money ball!
1-0 +2.00 units

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls, game 6 at United Center.
Heat for the past 2 seasons have clinched the advance on the road.
From the first game Heat looked complacent after the 1st Half allowing the big lead to dwindle. Bull game 3 win was due to happen, game 4 loss got their attention and game 5 ...Heat was in trouble, but played the 4th with their dynamic dual looking like superstars. Shaq and Wade rolling they will win tonight. No matter with United Center, Wades hip, fouls or Chandler returning, Miami to close the series and move on.

MIAMI Money Line -117 for 4 units(W)
115 with late Bulls money coming in.

That felt good. Nice win to ATS backers too! That line went to -1.5 Miami.
1-0 +4.00 units

Cash me this one need to make some extra to catch the LA series. Yes the Suns did it their way in Phoenix, but Lakers Clippers will make fine totals for really nice upcoming plays.

Here's the play. Wiz and Cavs with series all tied up. Last game was Wiz come from behind, but if you look at the stats on that game Cavs had them in shooting percentage, paint, and didn't let anything get away except for fouls, points off turnovers and offensive board for 2nd chance points. Was that home court bias refs obvious? If I was a betting man I would bet Wiz do not get those calls in Quicken Loans Arena.....I am and I will....
1st Half numbers to stay below looks good with very strong Under trend.

WAS/CLE 1st Half UNDER 97 at -108 for 3 units(L)
This so called "loose" game killed the Under trend.
-------------------------------------------------

Didn't have enough time to give the explaination, but looking at similar points, scoring & differential, Pistons showed big edge.
DETROIT 2nd Half -3 at -104 for 2 units(W)

1-1 -1.24 units

Tuesday is early line day, just kidding, I just like NJN at home, although the Continental Airlines Arena has been kind to Pacers ATS backers, Peja will not go and bigger piece of the puzzle Jermaine O'Neal was not able to practice today because of dehydration and flu like symptoms. He was at Conseco Field House, started practice but didn't last very long and made the trip to New Jersey and will wait and see about his availability coming up or at least his availability and effectiveness coming up Tuesday night. Pacers Nets in good zig zag pattern with Pacers in line to win this game, but if your not aware of Jermaine's condition and looking for a big game from him you might be in for a surprise. Taking the dip from the Opening line NJN -7 to -6.5

NJN -6.5 -110 for 2 units(L)
The hook got me.
Kidd missed his 2nd FT at the end that was the difference.
Could of bought the point, but that's an after thought.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bulls/Heat is playing a good spot for scoring surge. The game goes to Miami with Bulls Chandler iffy will hurt defense. Heat coming off sub 90 point scoring to push the Over is very strong trend.

This one is going Under. 121 points in 2nd half is unlikely.

MIA/CHI OVER 198.5 -108 for 2 units(L)
Wade missing big chunk of the game did this play. Even the 2nd half 97.5 was Under to take this game Under across the board.

Had some help from fellow cappers to tail SAS -8 and PHO 2nd Half -2.
Recouped, but damage is already done here.
0-2 -4.36 units
Not to be discouraged Post Season NBA feels right.

What do I like for Monday at the Association?
How often does the opponents score 124 points against Detroit in regulation?
It's easy to predict the scoring will drop from where it last landed, but how far down? The opening total at most book 191, Pinny shows opening of 180 but I never saw that number, number is rising I see 5Dimes at 192.5 already.
I calculate the number at 188, but the real prize will be the First Half number landing around 97 and First Quarter at 49 which should be good for Under.
Hit this late and watch the money flow for best value.
If the 1st Half Total is Under by 3 or less and 2nd Half shows value to the Under make it an option play.

Keep your eyes on the prize. I missed the First Half number by 0.5 points, but that's right there we can take 96.5 and take it up to 98. Sit tight for late afternoon Over money to come in on 1st quarter and half.
Ideal price for First Half Under 98 is -123 or better it's already hit that point before climbing. Watch for list price to go -105 at Pinny and be ready to hit.

There's an up tick on Bucks with afternoon sharp money hedging the series.
You got to take Pistons with improved line.

DET -6.5 -107 for 2 units(W)

DET/MIL UNDER 49 1st Quarter -109 2 units(W)
DET/MIL UNDER 98 1st Half -123 2 units(W)
Had posting problems earlier.
DET/MIL UNDER 97 2nd Half -123 2 units(L)
OK I got cocky in the end.
3-1 +3.54 units

Take the Suns Money Line across the board. It's a game of balances and adjustments. Spot for Lakers to disappoint.

PHO 1st Half PK +109 for 1 unit(P)
PHO ML +109 for 1 unit(L)
What a classical moose job and to think I had the ATS option.

-----------------------------------------------------------
I was supposed to update my MLB plays this morning, but watching the Heat vs Bulls game, sorry couldn't help myself. I liked the UNDER at United Center too late talking about it now.
I also like the UNDER at Sacramento.
Kings know they got the lucky bounce many followers of the zig zag theory may look heavy to Spurs, but Kings will not lack motive. Big public play on Spurs, but I'm not giving +4.5 to Kings at Arco. The game will play out tight and low for regulation below 188. I'm buying the 1.5 points.

Here are couple of late additions.

SAS/SAC UNDER 189.5 at -123 for 2 units(W)
SAS/SAC 1st Half UNDER 93 at -105 for 1 unit(L)
SAC +1.5 1st Quarter at -102 for 1 unit(W)

I tried adding SAC +5.5 2nd Half and UNDER 94.5 2nd Half, but it would not post. Late game surge in NBA making it break even with loss in MLB.
2-2-1 +0.95 units

Half time windows don't give much time for write ups.
Mavs at Grizz. Grizzlies playing for their playoff lives making an statement in the first half. I don't think the Mavs are going quietly in the 2nd.

DAL -2.5 2nd Half -102 for 1 unit(W)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Detroit at Milwaukee coming to half time.
Pistons are getting dominated in the paint and ah, Big Ben Wallace has been used sparingly in the first with Hunter and McDyess getting a good load.
Flip did say something about being able to run in the open, but this is not Detroit basketball. They will take away the paint and if the Bucks shooting cools watch out.

Looking for Detroit 2nd half line.

Even if they start locking up the Total at 95 seems reachable, but Under is still the call and I would of taken it at 98. No play on 2nd half total keep in mind the second half juiced plays gets moosed at pretty high clip making the +money plays very profitable. I would say Under and Detroit ATS are good value.
I will go against the grain with Detroit -7 which is saying Piston to take the game. I expect nothing less.

My expectation was too high? Bucks are driving at will this play has no chance.

DET -7 2nd Half +105 for 1 unit(L)

I'm stuck on these splits.
1-1 Even

Denver will show some urgency today back home with series 0-2.
There is also an strong 1st quarter Over trend which was broken in last game.
Look for the 1st quarter scoring to surge and Nuggets to run the floor with their tempo.

LAC/DEN 1st Quarter Over 49 points -118 for 2 units(L)
DEN -2.5 -111 for 2 units(W)
DEN -4 at -125 for 3 units(W)

Are we not entertained? Not a pretty game, but money maker still the same.
2-1 +2.64 units

What's happening with the NBA Playoffs?
Lakers tradition and Los Angeles deep pocket is undermining Phoenix Suns today. I give credit to Lakers defense in their last game to take ATS, but Suns are pretty good value to take the First Half

PHO 1st Half -3 +100 for 1 unit(L)
Could not have been any more wrong the ATS play for the Suns lost 1st Quarter, 1st Half and the Game only 2nd Half won. Excellent work by the Lakers to slow the game which has now spanned 7 out of 8 quarters since the series kicked off in Phoenix. Keep in mind is the lack of Matrix slashing to the inside against the Lakers and the overall inside pressure by the Suns.
How will DiAntoni adjust? Was the Suns regular season smoke & mirrors? They really need to raise the tempo to get this thing started.
------------------------------------------------------------

I'll make this quick as the Dallas clamp is coming down for the 2nd half.

MEM/DAL 2nd Half Under 92 -105 for 1 unit(W)
Saw that coming in the 2nd quarter Mavs been doing it all season since the All Star Break. History holds the Unders to be the trend in post season plays, but keep watch on shaded numbers.

1-1 even

NBA regular season comes to an end tonight.
Lets speculate on meaningless game with slew of regulars getting some rest.
The match up I like is North West leader Denver Nuggets visiting the Seattle Sonics. Nuggets will suit up 8 and play only 7. Melo, Camby, KMart are all expected to rest and Miller will get limited minutes. Denver simply are not considering this game their practice scheme was all plays against the 1st round opponent Clippers.
The Sonics look to close their last home game strong. The last game against the must win Kings at Arco was Sonics ATS win & 2nd Half ATS win and the Total went Over with Sonics like tempo.
Seattle across the board.

SEA 1st Quarter -2 -105 for 2 units(W)
SEA 1st Half -3.5 -108 for 2 units(W)
SEA -7 -107 for 1 unit(W)

Meaningless to some, but gold mine to cappers.
3-0 +5.00 units

Little rest to clear my mind. Set my MLB plays on the early lines to avoid cross-over thinking.

This is what I came up with for NBA.
Nets are not closing out the regular season strong like they had hoped, 3 losses out of last 5 and 5 losses of last 8. To coincide with their ATS losses are the numbers going Over 5 out of last 6 and Nets defense giving up +99 points 4 out of last 5. Keep in mind NJN will focus on this very point and their defensive scheme gives them the winning chance.
Boston alternating O/U with last game against the Pacers going 112-117 (SU loss/ATS win & Over 188.5) blow out over by margin of 40.5 points.
This is a spot for the score to drop and I would calculate in the mid 190's, but given the situation for Nets to notch up their defense and Boston's last game lacking so much on the board (out rebounded 25-42) this should be a game where the scores will not come easy.

Buy the 1.5 on current exchange. 193 looks Under and this would be my normal 2 unit play, but just getting back.

NJN/BOS UNDER 194.5 -123 for 1 unit(W)
Solid Under at 153. How do you like them apples.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Never say never, but I'm taking a break from NBA.
Can't seem to chew gum and walk at the same time.
Not having any balance analyzing two sports in NBA to MLB transition.
Wish I had another head or more time in a day. Had similar troubles before Batis came along with his Math Stat algorithm on MLB and he'll be back when enough data is collected.
I will wait for playoffs to publish my NBA speculation and concentrate on value play in MLB.

Pick made at season's start, Suns to win Pacific Division, will give me some ammo.

Cleveland and New Jersey in early game. It's almost game time, my thoughts are Cavs will trail this match up, but they will stalk the Nets in striking range.
I'm think Cavs will have value going into the second half.
If you have not noticed/experienced the 2nd half value plays the selections have been money. Just watch the money flow the wrong way and take the plus money. It's been happening over and over. Cleveland is running low in depth
and LBJ wants it to be a team thing, not him taking over scoring 40+ points, but he'll do what he needs to do.

Lets start with Nets leading the first quarter with couple of baskets.

NETS -1.5 1st Quarter -114 for 1 unit(L)
*Just watched this line go to -124

Nets are letting the pace get away, where's the interior defense? I'm sure it's coming back.
CLE/NJN 2nd Half UNDER 92 -117 for 2 units(L)
Touted the Cavs 2nd half and took the bad total instead.
------------------------------------------------------------
I hope my plays climb like the Cavs today.
OK, battle worn Wizards are back home to take on the shaky Miami team.
Can the Heat turn it on when they need it? I think they need it now and must set the tone of this game in out of the gate.

MIA -1 1st Quarter -107 for 2 units(L)
------------------------------------------------------------
This one goes down it'll be the last play of the day.
PHL/CHI 1st Quarter Over 50 -105 for 2 units(L)
---------------------------------------------------------
I think I pulled my hammy, better go on DL.... Done for the day, hitting the showers. I'll study the videos, see what I did wrong Hopefully the coach will let me back on the floor. Got to hit better percentage than that.

No more money plays, but you guys want some plays to fade here you go....
These are what I like so go the other way.....
76er 2nd half +6
DAL 2nd half PK
DAL/NOH 2nd half Under 93.5

Infukcrediable, no money plays all win so even the faders got burned.
I even liked UTA 2nd half -6, but didn't bother to write that one in as the 2nd half was bit later than the rest.

I know, I need to update the season record....been putting it off.

0-4 -7.72 units

Friday is here and we will try to combine payday with winday to double your pleasure.

Orlando Magic is surging at home, note the scoring surge, and they have taken out some tough foes. Pistons make the short trip from Miami on their second of B2B after playing their usual defense and pulling away in the end.
Going back to my old playbook I will back the game going Over.
Buying the 1.5 points to take it down to 186 and the key to this play will require the Magic to stay hot from the field and keep up the energy on the board.

DET/ORL OVER 186 -126 for 1 unit(L)
Are you kidding me, two missed FT that would of sent this to OT and missed lay up that would of sent it to OT.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Mavericks at Spurs in the Texas Holdem Down game. Dallas needs to focus and bring back their defense to get things back on track. Spurs big man, Duncan - stomach virus maybe slow and Udrih is questionable with ankle problem, but thats going to hinder offense more than defense. Buy the 1.5 points

DAL/SAS UNDER 188.5 -123 for 2 units(W)
I should of posted the 2nd Half Under as both teams clamp down.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
My short game on sides today. Washington making the playoff push.
Wiz are on the road, but they should come out pumped.
Hawks some how pull out the win and these hard fought wins seems to dissipate on the following game.

WAS -1.5 1st Quarter -105 for 1 unit(W)
This was a good call.

2-1 +1.74 units

I'm looking at a interesting game coming up.
I guess the early money likes Koby and Company getting +4.5 points at Pinny, but consensus at Covers/Wagerline is on Denver. Maybe the case of Sharps vs Public. But I can't believe Anthony gave away that last game with time remaining, punching the ball in frustration 25 rows into the seats, costing the Nuggets a technical, which Sam hit, and Clippers got to call the Nuggets player to shoot the FT since Anthony was ejected from the game. Evans got the call and promptly missed both costing another 2 points, so 3 points Denver gave to Clippers for free and outcome was LAC by 2 points. Don't forget Nuggets had 20 points advantage at the half and they let Clippers come back.
Now Clippers responded well against the Suns dominating the 2nd half and crushing the rested Suns at home, Clips playing 2nd of B2B.
How will Denver respond returning home with a open day to soak?
I think they come out running and gunning.
How about the Lakers? Their last game, home against Yao and the Rockets was all Lakers. On this particular night at Staples was free Tacos for everyone attending. The deal was, Lakers hold opponent, Rockets, below 90 points you get a free Taco. So with time running out the crowd was chanting "We Want Tacos!" and with each Rockets stop the crowd was going wild. Koby was laughing telling his team mates, everyone wants Tacos. They got the Taco, funny stuff.
As for this match up I like Denver/Lakers to run up the score out of the gate.
Predicting 1st Quarter line at 53.

Check back in the morning.

Not quite morning yet, but the game total 205 which opened at 206 is recovering at 205 Over -122 at Pinny and see many books at 205.5 so Pinny is taking in Over money with this number you can buy down to 203.5
Does this mean anything? Maybe the book is balancing the money flow, maybe the early sharp money came in at 206 plus 1.5 points on buy to get Under 207.5 in either case, Lakers have not allowed 100+ points in last 10 games and Nuggets play their best game when holding opponents below -100 points and they failed to do so on last two games with the last one surging to 111 points.
This may not be pure offense as it first appears. Nuggets might adjust their defense. If I decide on going Under I want much points as possible.

Now it's past noon PST, 12:22 to be exact, looking back at what I wrote this is leading to conflicting wager a very basic no no in betting. If offsetting was the reasoning it's different, but to back both Over & Under in the same match is not good. Having said all this the play will probably win with my NBA luck right now. So what am I doing? I'm staying with 1st Quarter to play out Over 53. Public has pushed the game total back to 206, but I will consider 2nd Half play after concluding my 1st Quarter pick and watching the 1st Half.

LAL/DEN 1st Quarter OVER 53 -105 for 1 unit(W)
Yeah the game played out just as I thought (sailing Over out of the gate and slowing down to 99-99 in regulation), but I didn't have the mind to put more on this play considering I spent more time capping NBA over MLB and I made the bigger bet on baseball, mistake.
1-0 +1.00 unit

If you have been fading the New York Knicks, plays have been money.
But did you know Knicks fade gets better if you are playing the early game.

KNICKS 1st Half have lost 8 out of last 10
KNICKS 1st Quarter have lost 9 out of last 10, just as good as fading NYK SU.
KNICKS ATS have lost 7 out of last 10

Beside Cavs on B2B off 124 scoring, way over the regulation norm, I rather take the early game and take the game to go Under.

CAVS -2 1st Quarter -105 for 2 units(L)
CAVS -4 1st Half -105 for 1 unit(L)

CAVS/KNICKS UNDER 205 -111 for 1 unit(W)
*Sorry, line is from last night

Even the Under almost got moosed just missing the OT.
1-2 -2.15 units

I'm back from watching the Dodger at Angels Freeway Series exhibition game.
Didn't put anything on the game, kinda rooted for both teams and ended in 0-0 tie in 10 innings.

Once upon a time I was shooting hotter than hell in NBA, it was not that long ago, but now mediocre selections are piling up and I've been considering moving on to MLB. But old habits die hard.

NBA on ABC Sunday will feature Suns at Pistons.
When I look at this match up I see Suns coming off 140 - 126 Milwaukee romp, prior to that win over Indy in another triple digit scoring (114-104), all ofcourse without Amare, but to say all is now well is just foolish especially with Suns high flying on extended road trip (5 games in 7 days with 2 B2B with one open day in between) you never now how much gas is in the tank.
Suns upcoming opponent has viewed how Nets, Kidd neutralized Nash and showed it can be done. Amare did complicate matters in that game, but the focus was Nash. Your all thinking this is leading to Detroit or maybe even Detroit 1st Half well it's not. Call me foolish, call me crazy, you can even fade this play, but I'm thinking this game goes Under.
I actually think this is a pretty good situation Suns 140 points is a scoring peak and Pistons 112 points, come from behind, to beat Bucks 105 is another peak.
Pistons showed they can pick up the pace, but at home after a game where Bucks led most of the way and willed the up tempo style Pistons will force their will to keep the next opponent below 100+ points.
I'll hit this for a unit, most likely just before the game or if the total moves up sharply. If you ask me, why not Pistons? I'd say I do like Pistons and I may take them in the 2nd Half, but I'm playing my strong suit and that's the totals.
Good luck Players.

Sorry for my late return.
Had to get to the Airport this morning, but hit the game Under with 1.5 point buy to take PHO/DET UNDER 211.5 and second half was golden with UNDER 206, I was looking to recover game going Over, all ended good.

Thinking of taking Sixers ATS First Half -5.5 *buy the point at -113