NBA on Christmas

NBA has returned and without getting into how we got here let's move right into the state of these games. When I say this, I mean the shaky start Lakers will take in their Xmas opener hosting the very dangerous Chicago Bulls. This is a cohesive team expected to go the distance. The current Laker's, Kobe hurt, no Lomar, Pau in dismay, the game will more than likely be won by Chicago Bull @ Staples Center.

This is a Bookies nightmare line where it originally opened in Lakers favor only to have Kobe's wrist injury swing the odds back to Chicago's favor exposing the books to risk on both sides of this game.


Chicago Bulls -3.5 points(L)

Back on Track 2011

Let's hope the deal stays on course. This delay season start will be interesting. But upcoming games will have rematch of Mavs & Heat and Lakers & Bulls should be a high scoring affair. There will be many games to exploit. Hope to have you back checking on "NBA Plays & Selection" for another Fantastic season!

OKC Thunder at Dallas Mavercks WC Finals #5

I shut the NBA blog back in Jan. due to lack of time, but I do like the game. I enjoy games played on daily basis. It's how you read the changes and spot fundamental angles. This game is elimination game for the Thunder and they are coming off a gut wrenching OT loss at home. Yet this line has widen not tighten so I will go with OKC getting too many points!

OKC +6.5(W)

NBA Monday

Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls
This is a losing team vs winning team match up, but the losing team, Pistons, have been playing very good ATS Basketball whereas the winning team, Bulls, have sandwiched two ATS losses between single win. Chicago's two most recent games against sub par teams at home giving up double digit points ATS? 12/31 and 1/01 Nets & Cavaliers both SU winners, both ATS losers. Chicago also visited Detroit 12/26, SU winner & ATS no cover loser, in a game that went into OT. Bulls are very suspect against weaker foes getting hefty points. There's a pattern right? The pattern is don't be short sighted. Last 10 game sampling goes against the big picture which is Detroit away 3-16 just above Cleveland in the East. The Bulls have dominated this match up for sometime and at home I expect the Bulls to take control.

CHICAGO BULLS -9.5(W)

NBA Friday

New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns
Welcome to the new era for the valley of the Suns. Landscape has much changed in Phoenix 2011, but going back through the past match ups Suns never had much over the Knicks. That holds true this season as well with Knicks one of the top ATS team going against 5-10-1 home ATS Phoenix Suns. Take the points on the road team Knicks.

New York Knicks +2(W)

NBA Monday

Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic

Orlando sure does look magical with new found blood and looking forward to 2011. They've strung 5 straight wins covering all as favorites. Hell, they beat the Spurs and Celtics handily. What a turn around from 4 straight losses and 2 for 8 during that span. Orlando is a contender expected to make the playoffs and rolled the dice in moving pieces, everyone know about the move, it's been made too much at this point and Golden State is an after thought. Warriors at 13-20 is dismal 5-14 on the road. However, Warriors 10-8-1 against the spread away and 50% proposition against winning teams away whereas Magic only 35% against losing teams. Golden State has 3 ATS losses in last 10 games only 1 loss was by more than one possession. Combined with Magics win margin dropping with every game since the start of this streak on Dec. 23 with 20 point ATS win against the Spurs to New York Knicks 1.5 point ATS squeaker on their last game 12/30 this one very much looks ripe for a ATS NO COVER at home for Orlando.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +10.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

Do not be alarmed. Published plays have failed 3 straight and it's sending back bad vibes. I'm not going to preach money management or advise something like Lakers ML laying the money. It doesn't work like that. The games fit certain criteria and wagers call for more specifics to come together. Many times the nature of the game is hiding in plain sight.

0-1 last play. 0-3 YTD

Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers

Here is a tight line where ATS & ML difference is 1 slight edge toward the visiting Nuggets playing second leg of back to back. Pacers have motivation as the last home loss was a game which Pacers held the lead going into the 4th quarter and losing by 2points. The game before that was a blow out loss at Philadelphia by 26 points which provided the wake up call. Can Pacers break out against the tired Nuggets? I'm going to say NO. Denver has played very well in the second leg so far this season and I expect the trend to stay it's course. Nuggets coming off a ATS Win (Push if you got +2) playing against poor offensive team with weaker scoring number at home this season.

DENVER -1 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

I have a rare second game with Detroit Pistons at Portland Trailblazers
Detroit looks like a team making progress and Blazer with Roy getting shut down in last game at Lakers. This line would seem just too big, but Blazer will redeem themselves at the Rose Garden where Pistons have done very little.

PORTLAND -10 at 103 for 2 units(W)

Stop loss at 0-4, but Nuggets pick sucked big time.
1-1 +1.03 units

NBA Sunday

0-1 last play 0-2 YTD -2.02 units

Moving to Staple Center in Los Angeles were the defending champions will take on the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Lakers are undefeated, deep and looking stronger than last season. However understanding the strength is to know the pit falls. Play against the Lakers coming off a double digit home favorite loss playing a division opponent with winning record.

PORTLAND +7.5 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

Got killed on this play. Blazers decided not to show up!

NBA Saturday

Toronto at Portland

Looking at this game in Portland, Rose Garden most will see Blazers redeeming their home loss to a opponent, Oklahoma. Who come into the Garden on a back to back night, after they were annihilated by the Lakers, and clawed back at the end to tie at regulation and snuffed out the Blazers in OT. That game was a SU loss as -5.5 home favorite and here is another team playing second leg of back to back. Again coming off a loss to the Lakers, though ATS cover, and getting big time numbers. If your first instinct was the Blazers, but hesitated with the spread it has moved down. Maybe it's got your attention? The number is still too big and it may swing back, but the take is on the Raptors second leg of back to back ATS. Blazers backers might have a better chance in the First Half, but see a back door cover. Take Raptors off a first leg ATS cover against a top contending team then playing a team with winning home record getting double digit points.

TORONTO RAPTORS +12 priced at -103 Matchbook.com(L)

Looked like it was on it's way, but close does not count!

Opening Day 2010

PHX at POR
Suns visit the Rose Garden and opens this season with one of the lowest opening Total I can recall. Point down grade is understandable, but Nash still see the court as well as anyone in this league. Suns and Blazers both can run the pick and roll with the best. Looking for this game to go Over today's total.

OVER 201(L)

NBA Monday

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets
Most NBA fans and handicappers have an underlining understanding of coach Popovich's guidance towards post season and their need to improve on this road trip. It will test the Spurs against the likes of Cleveland and Orlando, but for tonight it the Hornets. Interestingly Hornets are getting better line with Tim Duncan getting rested on second of back to back. This may not be that bad as shown by the line movement, it's the play on team without their leading player, but considering no cover ATS on the first game and allowed opponents +109 points there's enough to play against the Spurs on the road. Hornets are mediocre this season barely .500 ATS coming off a no cover loss at Dallas. Nothing to write home about with home games either, but they are the better back to back team. 21-11 ATS against winning teams, 8-4 in second half. There are issues with assists, fast break points and 4 straight road losses which all gives more for the public to like Spurs. Go against no cover team as a favorite on second of back to back. Take the points with the home team.

HORNETS +3

NBA Wednesday

Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Brewers.

Houston comes to Milwaukee on a back to back. Rockets fall against Jazz at home in the first leg. Sound loss after holding the Jazz 55 to 49 in the first half they were outscored 55-40 in the second. I see alternating schedule of road and home for Houston making the remaining February a tough ordeal for this team to endure. Bucks have been playing good defense lately getting a chance to notch closer to .500 at the expense of Rockets and this is a good chance. Bucks 19-4 ATS against poor defensive teams. 4-1 ATS as short home favorites. 2-0 after 3 or more days off.

BUCKS -5

NBA Thursday

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics.

The Bulls crushed Pistons at home 1/11 120-87 easily covering -5.5 and this was step up game after SU win & -8.5 cover over Minnesota, again at home, but 2 losses away also covered getting 4 points at Milwaukee and 6.5 points at Charlotte. Making the ATS 4 wins in a row, 8-1 ATS last 9 and Chicago Bulls stock are suddenly hot item.

Boston last faced Chicago 12/12 106-80 Celtics win & cover -9.5 in United Center.
Celtics went wire to wire did not give up any quarter while holding the Bulls to under 33% shooting from the field and miserable 1 for 9 beyond the arc.

Despite the fact of embarrassing loss, recent surging Bulls play and K. Garnette & B. Wallace missing from line up. Bulls are poised to break their winning streak and lose ATS. They are very poor revenge team at 1-5, against Atlantic division teams 1-7 and coming off a peak game. This is also a spot to avenge a rare home loss Celtics suffered last home game. 1/11 Atlanta was a turn around blow losing 2 to the Hawks in 3 days. It must of left a bad taste for the C's because they went to NJ and killed the Nets.

Boston are not a good home cover team 11-5 SU has only covered 6-10 and they are alternating high score win than a loss however Chicago upside is limited where as Boston is under estimated at home. Take Boston give the points.

BOSTON CELTICS -6.5

NBA Monday

Miami Heat at Utah Jazz

These two teams last met on December 23rd. Remember that game in Miami? It held some offensive promise, but the game unfolded in snails pace with decisive 3rd quarter by home team Miami ending in 70-80. That was the 5th and final road game for Jazz where D. Williams blamed the loss to their defensive laps. Whatever it was Miami took down Utah for the 4th time in a row.
Miami is the nemesis to Utah winning 11 out of 12 meets. Today Miami Heat are the road team and they have lost 5 out of last 7 games. The last game against Clippers at L.A. 94-84 loss Heat shot below 40% and could not recover from early deficit. Wade sat out the last 8 min. 21 sec. in a look-ahead move for second of back to back.

The Jazz men last played 1/09 @DAL where they caught the Mavs on second of back to back after the incredible rally at San Antonio. Jazz winning in Dallas 111-93 up to that point they were struggling with 4 losses out of 5 and forced to play Williams who was nursing a injured wrist. Jazz are tough at home 13-6 SU & 12-7 ATS and coming off high scoring games are 10-3.

I'm looking for higher production from Miami today and maybe Jazz score doesn't reach 111, but Miami has allowed +100 points in 4 out of last 6 games. Catching the declining Total and taking this Over.

OVER 194(W)

Sweet and Easy.

NBA Sunday

New Jersey Nets at San Antonio Spurs.

Nets got a ATS cover on the road at New Orleans. That game Nets got off to a usual slow start, but dropped in 27 points in last 3 quarters and kept it close enough to easily cover with 9.5 points exceeding their offensive average by 10 points. Considering road games points allowed, 1/06 @ATL 119 points, 12/18 @TOR 118 points, 12/13 @ATL 130 and so on counting from late November road games Nets allowing +99 points is 10 out of 11. Last game effort not seen since 12/15 @Cleveland and it was also their best offensive effort getting to 99 points. Nets have exceeded +99 points on the road 3 out of 15. So in New Jersey standard a very good game. Which to me spells regression at San Antonio. Spurs lose to Dallas at home in a game where Spurs held advantage for 3 quarters and than gave up 42 points to Dallas in the 4th, whopping 50 points allowed in the paint at home. What do you think will happen to the next team stepping into AT&T Center? Enter Nets getting 14 points. NJN 2-9 as dogs with +10 points, 6-11 ATS after a OVER win, 5-13 against teams above .500 and that's my take.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -13.5(L)

New Jersey cover by 1.5 points.

Late Game in the West.
Bucks at Lakers
Similar scenario as with Nets@Spurs. Lakers with 2 disappointing games and Bucks with Win no cover at home. That ATS loss comes in closing minutes as Bulls closed the gap. This game will take Sides and Total. Lakers playing cold, but defense is still active. The Total has risen all day and we will go against the inflated number. I see L.A. hungry for a big win. Can we cover this big number? Again the number tells me to look for Lakers to come back at Staples Center.

LAKERS -9.5(W)
UNDER 196(W)

L.O got the points, but watch out Koby's finger is definately bothering him and he is dead cold. Michael Redd buckled his knee making their road trip much tougher.

NBA Saturday

Minnesota Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls.

Bulls are giving -8.5 at home and that is a big number. Chicago on recent 6-1 ATS run made a huge rally to cover yesterday at Milwaukee making it 2 covers in a row away. Bulls stock maybe on the rise, but they are 6 games below .500 and of the 11 times they have been favored the record is 4-7, out of the 11 games they gave -6.5 or higher 4 times resulting in 1-3. Coming into 2nd leg of back to back Bulls are 1-6 making today's road dog a popular take. Minnesota 9-8 ATS away and 5-4 ATS back to back is not exactly a slam dunk. Even with the thought of Bulls giving too much I feel Grizzlies are coming off a peak game, 116-109 SU & ATS cover, similar to match 12/18 home win against Kings 112-96 where they promptly lost the following game at Boston getting 13.5 points. This ATS is holding steady and I'm fading Minnesota to buck the Chicago trend.

CHICAGO BULLS -8.5 at -103(W)

Right on money!

NBA Friday

Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors.

Expectation for high scoring shoot'em up game is high. But I look for expanding ATS to favor the visiting Kings who have disappointed in recent games. Kings loss margin with spread is very close and Warriors win margin has exceeded winning SU as a underdog allowing 2nd fewest points in past 10 games. Look for Kings to play strong in this spot.

SACRAMENTO KINGS +4.5(L)

What a blow! Kings had this in their grasp and let it get away.

NBA Tuesday

Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks
Mavs are one of those teams I advise as a over estimated team. They very much are a poor cover team that should be looked at carefully. On this day Dallas return from L.A. where they were schooled by the Lakers to face the woeful Pistons. Detroit where the long drought has failed to produce winning sign will receive one of the hefty spread on board tonight. +9 is a number you'll need to search through Dallas calender to see this margin win. Yet it'll be a public spot to back the Mavs and they may get this one. I'll take the early round on First Half.

DALLAS MAVERICKS FIRST HALF -5(L)

2nd Play:
Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings.

Kings have lost 3 in a row and Suns come to Arco with impressive record against the Kings. Suns 8-10 SU and .500 ATS is not a good bet on the road. They are giving up score to opponent at alarming rate and though they are winning against division foes they are failing to cover. Kings are very good 12-5 against poor defensive teams, 6-2 with 2 days rest and Total above 210 is 6-3. Kings are covering 3-1 at Arco and that's late night play.

SACRAMENTO KINGS +3(L)

NBA Monday

Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls. The Bulls are playing good ball with Rose leading the way. There's also some dominance by Bulls 5-1 over past 6 match ups. Bulls also on a roll 4 wins in a row and last game SU win against a top contender Orlando Magic. I think they disappoint against Thunder playing very competitive ball yet going under the radar. Not only are they above .500 they exceed with better ATS record. Thunder was rolling too with 5 wins in a row only to drop the OT game. I still see love for the Bulls and this game might be worth waiting on.

Oklahoma +2.5(W)

NBA Sunday

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks

Pacers comes to MSG as a +9.5 underdog playing double back to back with 2 days off in between. They have exceeded the century mark twice in a row, 12/30 losing to Memphis and 1/02 winning against Minnesota. Counting 6 games back Indiana defense has allowed +99 points climbing through 12/30 giving 121 points and on 1/02 dropped back 10 points, but scored 122 points. Combined occurance of defensive score allowed with 2 recent high scoring games have raised the Total, but scoring is likely to drop here. NYK went Over 2 games in a row after stringing 8 Unders and last game at Atlanta was regulation Under that went Over due to OT.
This game similar to my last pick trends Under for both teams away and home.

UNDER 208(L)

Knicks had too much fire power!

NBA Saturday

Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls.

Let's go to the United Center and get the hell out of the cold. I'm sure Bulls are feeling little cozy reeling off 3 wins in a row, but Orlando has dominated the Bulls to the tune of 8-1 going back to 2007. Magic on first set of double back to back coming off declining scoring looking for this one to stay low. Bulls also playing above their average scoring. Home and away O/U are also extremely Under. That's what I'll play.

UNDER 194(PUSH)

Hope you guys got 194 and not below.

NBA NEW YEARS EVE

Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets.

I was looking at Dallas games the two past games 12/26 & 12/27 to be specific. Two consecutive games where Mavs cracked the century scoring mark, first game Total exceeding +200 and second landing on 200, and thought about this one falling below 200. What do you know? This game Total sitting on 198.5~199 moving up from 197. Looking at Houston coming off a game scoring 108 and giving up 100 which is a rarity in regulation that's happened 3 times (scoring and allowing triple digits) in December. That's normally followed with drop in score. The last time these two teams met, 12/18 @Dallas 100-100 regulation 116-108 O.T. win and cover by Houston, was also an unlikely Over with 62 points scored in 4th quarter. So why would you not take UNDER 199? Because there's not enough room in Texas and divisional games are fought basket for basket. Mavs averaging 103 in this spot & giving up 100. Rockets are 102 offense and 105 defense making Over the play. There's movement swinging both ways so key in entry point you might consider breaking up position for cost averaging.

OVER 100 First Half (W)

NBA Wednesday

Charlotte Bobcats at Toronto Raptors.

The similarity shared by these two teams are the home court advantage and road disadvantage. Which in simplest term means Raps win at home. Here's where it get tricky. Raps 10-5 at home only failed to cover once, 12/8 giving up -7.5 to Minny and last home loss 12/11 to Atlanta going 6-1 in December at home, 5-2 ATS, pretty solid. Compared to Cats played six December road games perfect 0-6 giving Toronto enough to get the public nod making the Bobs somewhat of underestimated foes. Toronto also took a bad beat last time these two teams met in Charlotte so you think Raps will have payback in mind coming in with 4 wins in a row. But all those good thoughts are suspect. Raps revenging games are 8-11 ATS, against South East opponents 2-8 ATS and overall 50% in December games. Charlotte 11-3 ATS against sub .500 teams, 10-2 against teams allowing +99 points. Doesn't Charlotte have a chance to be the 3rd team to beat Raptors in December at home? Maybe maybe not, but I'll take the points and look for the Cats to keep it fairly close.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +6(W)

Cover baby!

NBA Tuesday

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers.

If you feel Lakers are a bit uninspired I can't blame you they failed to cover 3 out of last 4 and Phoenix wire to wire, did not lose any quarter. It wasn't Lakers scoring it was defense. So will they clamp it down against the Warriors? Golden State is on second leg of back to back beating the mighty Celtics and they have to be pumped for the Lakers. I think the Total will remain high and the number is retreating the wrong way.

OVER 217.5(W)

There was no doubt

NBA Sunday

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers.
Celtics are one of those teams with odds makers making good spread adjustments keeping them just below .500 ATS. That's a team with 23-5 record to 13-15 ATS ratio which means they've dropped 10 games giving points. Within the last 10 games played they failed to cover 4 and one was SU & ATS making them 50%.
Clippers are sub .500 team with ATS slightly worse. Spread is not helping and makes them a good fade candidate. Effort has been lacking in situational spots and Clips will face one of the best road team in NBA.
ATS has been widening and this game cones on heels of Boston beating Magic in Orlando by 9 points, 14.5 ATS, compared to Clippers loss by 31 points, 21 ATS, which is a good spot for Los Angeles. Let's look for climbing ATS to help the home team.

Clippers +8.5(W)

Didn't need no points

NBA Post Christmas Saturday

Sup everyone. Did the Christmas thing and now it's back to business.

Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz.
Good team bad team scenario again. What you want to watch in this spot is Sixers narrowing margin against ATS. Currently it's going more or less sideways. On Philly's winning games it comes off single possession difference margin of 2 or 3. That type of game has been followed by very good effort, that is not the case today. Jazz coming off a bad beat is ready to rock the rim. Let's go with Utah back in Salt Lake city.

UTAH JAZZ -7(W)

Keep on keeping on!

NBA Wednesday

Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings.
When looking at this match up most players know Cavs play well away and Kings play well at home. The other standout trend is Cavs play Over away and so does the Kings at home. So when comparing these two trends doesn't it make better sense to take the Over than choosing sides? Simplicity is sometimes bliss, but considering the Over, which is a pretty popular take, the number has climbed quite a bit since opening at 202. There should be a second take on this number which all indicator pointed to being too low. The schedule sequence makes this a tough spot to score with Cavs playing 3 sets of back to back in last 10 games, Kings played 4 sets. Cavs last game scoring 109 ties highest score in last 10 games which calls for a drop down spot in score. Kings last game scoring 102 is on the high side for away game and may not translate to lower scoring at home, but Cavs holding opposition to 93 or so is good enough to buck the rising number.

UNDER 204.5 at -103

Shot myself thinking too much

NBA Saturday

Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers.
This is the tale of 2 under performing teams with L.A. holding the better record. As with losing teams they try to float above water at home and struggle on the road. Clippers are playing better of late SU, but ATS is fairly close. Schedule is also similar with both teams coming in on 3 games in 4 days on back end of back to back. So you look closer to the first game of back to back where Clippers came out hot against the Knicks in MSG than faded away in the second half. 76ers trailed the Celtics and came back in the 2nd half. You take the 2nd half winner 76ers at home on a short line.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -2.5(L)

Damn! Had 2nd half momentum and could not close the deal. OT on home court? Come on Sixers you break my heart.

NBA Thursday

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat.

Hope everyone is doing well. This game will feature a contender from South East, Orlando Magic (19-6) deadly away as home makes no difference. Magic strung 5 game winning streak and 6 game winning streak, currently on 2 wins in a row, making this stretch 13-3 since Nov. 13th. Coming off a dominant game win against Raptors at home Magic goes for 7 wins out of 8 trips to Miami. This has to be a tall order for Miami Heat. They did win last game at home against Raptors, but they are 4 losses out of last 5 home games. Heat also beat Magic in last match, but Magic are good revenge team and good back to back team. Yet I am incline to take Miami Heat at home. ATS 15-10 is good money making record, but not as threatening as 19-6 and this sequence bring Magic to 3 games in 4 days. Orlando Magic is no doubt the public play and offshore has been holding that line, but starting to inflate.

MIAMI HEAT +4.5(W)

News flash! Miami Heat blows out Orlando Magic! Who could of guess it?!

NBA Wednesday

Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks.
Koby and Lakers impressing you? World Champs going for repeat? Maybe. They right the ship taking out the weak Bulls in Chicago. Yeah, but they didn't cover. It's a simple plan I'm going against them on the road. Lakers on double set of back to backs coming up tonight on second leg of second set. Bucks at home 8-4 ATS and they are on a mini roll. Lakers away 1-5 ATS on 3 game straight no cover. Just rolling with it.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS +6(W)

Good game Koby, but Bucks take the money!

NBA Tuesday

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
Tonight's gonna be a good night and both of these teams should be ready for a game after their tough schedule sequence. Suns did a double back to back with 2 days between, but first sequence was 3 games in 4 days which they promptly lost the first sequence of back to back and though rested for Sacramento they were killed by L.A. in the second of back to back.
Dallas coming off 3 games in 4 days sequence also lost the back to back. On their second game Mavs only attempted 67 shots and out done in the paint 34 to 10.
Now it's the bounce back game and the Total is seemingly high. BookMaker opened at 215.5 dropped a point, where many lines hold, and shaved another 0.5 to 214. I do admit the opening total I expected was 213 and was surprised by the high number, but plus minus 2 points is still in range. The total is dropping and priced UNDER, but this number is still 2nd highest seen in Dallas games and Mavericks going UNDER on all games this season above 203.5 maybe makes you uneasy or Phoenix last OVER game was 7 games ago makes you nervous. It's the perception shared by the wagering public, but both good teams coming off such dismal scoring and had time to soak it in come meet in this match up.

OVER 214(L)

That was a loser, but I will return.

NBA Sunday

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers.
Here comes the Suns after a on road back to back loss they are back on track taking out Sacramento shooting 115 points. Back on track ready to hand Lakers their 4th loss if not their 11th ATS loss. Phoenix getting 9.5 their second most points received 15-5 team on a revenge spot has to be intriguing. Offense is back scoring triple digits and Lakers looked like they were slipping against Miami. Would this be a good spot even on a back to back? Favorite with double digit spread no cover on second sequence giving up double digits should be faded, true, but when looking at Lakers SU win at home on a circus shot by Koby I consider that a loss and Suns are not a good back to back team or a revenge play team. Books have also kept this just below the double digit number handing a 9.5 which has been holding.
I take the refocused Lakers. In the paint baby.

LAKERS -9.5 at +108 for 1 unit(W)

Too much Lakers for Suns on back to back

NBA Friday

Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz
Jazz men last played on 11/30 scoring 120 and holding Memphis to 93 points. It was one of their best shooting game at 58%, but they also shot 60% before that and nearly 61% before that. The last 3 games have really inflated their FG% and the Total. Jazz shoot well I agree and their Over is 7 out of last 10, but rising score has peaked. Narrowing spread indicating opening number to be inflated by smart money. Pacers offense should yield below 100 today in Salt Lake city the concern should be points allowed which has exceeded 100 points 8 out of last 10, out of the 8 it has hit above 109 five times, but I think below 109 is more likely according to ATS movement. Go against the rising number.

UNDER 210.5(W)

NBA Thursday

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors.
242, 233, 227, 222, 214, 212, 204, this is the sequence of Warriors last 7 games coming to a peak. Last indicator noted on 11/14 @MIL 264 before dropping down 2 games in a row. The Warriors have been on Over trend 7 out of last 10 and this match up with Houston has track record for going Over. However this game calls for Under. 187, 191, 176, 239, 219, 208, 181, 216, 192, 209 Rockets last 10 game totals are classic hi-low sequence coming up on hi game, but considering the differential between games and this match following a peak total by Warriors will not make 221. This one looks to top out below 218.

UNDER 221 -110 for 1 unit(W)

So I missed the Total by 2 points. Good thing I had a 3 point cushion.
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Sunday

Minnesota Timber wolves at Denver Nuggets
Everyone knows this is a bottom team against elite team match that opened at -16 for home team. Needless to say expected blow out. But you should be aware of dropping line and not so impressive Denver ATS. This match up also comes up on interesting sequence of Nuggets SU win NO COVER against NYK at home. Fading double digit favorite after a No Cover is not a bad idea. Wolves last game was a double digit blow out loss against PHO which should be a motivation on this game. Big loss at POR back in 11/11 inspired following game at DAL, ATS loss by only -1.5 and 11/21 loss followed by ATS COVER at LAC.
How about a Minnesota back door COVER.

TIMBER WOLVES +14.5(W)

No back door. How about a SU win going away. Yeah, I'm a bad man.

NBA Wednesday

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers.
This match up regardless of home court has trended UNDER for a long time. Some might consider it nature of this match up. However the odds makers have raised the bar to 183.5 a number not seen between these two teams since 190 high mark on 11/19/2008 that's 7 match ups ago. New era basketball and I'm going to buck this trend today. The low end Total below 190's are going OVER and Cavs have scored 100+ 4 out of last 5 road games. Detroit very capable of putting up 90's and I'll take the OVER.

OVER 184(W)

The UNDER nature is still there, but not this low.

NBA Saturday

Points will cost premium.
My theme tonight for Detroit at Washington. Needless to say Saunder's first match up against Detroit since being let go will play a role. However the "Insiders" knowledge will not stand against the loss of 3 point guards. arenas playing with calf injury and Randy Foye sprained right ankle will be a game time decision. Detroit was able to dominate the Bobcats in last game, but considering the changes in these teams I'm not sure if Pistons will show their cohesiveness on the road. The nature of this game going Over in Washington has changed and you should not be deterred by the low number. My pick here is the Under 186.

UNDER 186 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Thursday

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers.
Wolrd Champion Lakers will take on the hot streaking Suns. I'm not sure if Suns will keep it on overdrive, but getting 8 points will get some backers. But 8 points have some meaning behind it like 7 games in 10 days or 4 in 5. That means too much Lakers at Staples Center

LAKEERS -8 at -104 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00

NBA Monday

Minnesota T-Wolves at Golden State Warriors.
Keep in mind Wolves and Warriors coming off double digit losing margin. Minnesota's second game giving up triple-teens plus this season. Warriors has not held any opponents below 100 and last game in Sacramento giving up 120 in regulation. That was the second most this season.
Assertion here is defensive number to improve and the rising total to be too lofty.

MIN/GSW UNDER 215 at -109 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.09 units

NBA Thursday

Spurs at Jazz. There's a sinking feeling in Salt Lake City and the wagering public can feel it. You know the play on San Antonio and Jazz has narrowed and in this situation you take the slumping home team.

UTAH JAZZ +1(W)

Finally a slam dunk!

NBA Tuesday

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks.
This is a interesting match up with Dallas returning home after the stint with the two teams in L.A. Winning both and brimming with confidence. Meanwhile Jazz upset at home against the new look Houston. Also dropped the opener at Denver with the lone win coming against the Clipper. Although Mavs giving -6.5 points seems well in range for Mavs coming to form, but Jazz at this point is very dangerous. The blow from Houston at home is equal to a wake up call. My take is the Jazz to cover in Dallas.

UTAH JAZZ +6.5(L)

Late game Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trailblazers.
Seemingly low total looks awfully suspicious, but Hawks poised to put up score which will likely be matched by the home Blazers. That looks Over to me.

ATL/POR OVER 192(L)

Off to a bad start. It'll turn around.

NBA 2009 ~ 2010 Bring on the Games

Let's get into. This is my first publishing for this season. I'm not doing season outlook or future plays. Not the first NBA wager, but here's one I'm putting on blog take on Lakers and Clippers match up at Staples Center in Los Angeles. Clips are playing healthy, well Griffin is out, and the number has been dropping since open. It's gone low as 200.5 and though the dip is likely this total is reachable.

OVER 201.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

Was not close, but long season to go 0-1 -1.10 units

NBA Finals Game II

MAGIC vs LAKERS
Lakers line on the move coming closer to game time and though -7 seems a bit much to a embarrassed Orlando team I will focus on Total for tonight. With edge to the Under and NBA Final scenario puts this at 202 which seems to be getting small money edge. I have seen the Under being touted everywhere and the trend screams out. I'm going to buck this trend and take the Over. This very suspicious Total has reverse outcome written all over and this number goes Over.

OVER 202 +101 for 1 unit(L)

Not a good idea to buck the trend, but I know this one had the Under backers sweating.
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA PLAYOFF CAVALIERS vs MAGIC

This game is a game where public persuasion has gone from Cleveland to Orlando. It's like you should of known all along of course Magic has the closers, Cavs don't match up well against Magic, Magics has Cavs number and had it all season long. Magic may have dropped the ball in Cleveland at the Q, but now their on their home court.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS +2 at +107 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA PLAYOFF LAKERS vs NUGGETS

Would you believe I had Cleveland -7.5 and OVER 191? Sweeping ATS and Total for Thursday? It just doesn't work when you don't have it published in a timely fashion. Hopefully I'm still see the right path. Everybody see the same game, but results from one game to the next is judged differently. Why? Because many are easily influenced by what occurred and what they heard from the announcers. Yes, Denver is playing good ball beyond where any media would have predicted. Yes, they are back at Pepsi with their back against the wall. Yes, Lakers have played half hearted games very capable of blowing it big. All true, Taking Lakers at the Moneyline.

LOS ANGELES +200 for 2 units(W)

Lakers baby 1-0 +4.00 units

NBA PLAYOFFS

Got miles to go before I sleep. No matter day or night, early or late, regardless of your life the game goes on. A wise man once told me never risk on a game based on match up, but base it on situation. Yes the first game was a surprise at the "Q", but giving up -9 does not justify against a team they have not covered all season. The other angle is the scoring will come down, if you agree the question is...from 213 will it come down below 188.5? that's 24.5 points less than where the game landed last time. The total set for the match is low with majority consensus on the Over. Line has moved very little perhaps still drawing the over, but the sharps have moved to the other side keeping the number at bay.

ORLANDO MAGIC +9(W)
TOTAL UNDER 188.5(L)

LBJ burns my UNDER with a miracle 3 point shot with a second left on the clock. Damn! on the cusp of sweeping side and total.

NBA Playoff Thursday

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2

Cavaliers at home are giving up -12.5 which is little more than 9.5 margin of wins and Hawks have shown ability to come back from big losses, but Cavs on a roll with killer instincts at home. I'll look for strong defensive showing once again to take this game again decisively.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -12.5 at -102 for 1 unit(W)

CLEVELAND/ATLANTA UNDER 89 FIRST HALF at -104 for 1 unit(L)

1-1 -0.04 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 31-34-1 +2.79 units

Uncanny Over implications for Utah and Denver at Pepsi Center. Jazz coming off a 21 point loss (15 ATS loss) at Portland in a crucial game. Easily eclipsed the 192 Total by 37 points. For Utah to give up 125 points on the road may seem out of the norm, but -118 in Phoenix, -94 in Oklahoma, -105 in Orlando and so on. This spot does call for better defensive number still the likelihood of exceeding triple digits are high. Denver has been over anticipated in exceeding the Total and the line makers are doing a very good job. They are confident with number close to what they set on March 6th in Utah. There are also 4 consecutive Unders recorded with one game in Denver. So despite expected decline from 229 for Jazz and Nuggets at neutral I will go with the Over 208.

UTA/DEN OVER 208 at +101 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.01 units

NBA Sunday

YTD 30-34-1 +1.78 units

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets

As the picture comes together in NBA and people continue to eye Cleveland, Los Angeles, Orlando... The aging team from South West will quietly stalk the top contenders. Spurs has strung 3 straight wins in a row. Coming into this game scoring 111 against the Clippers topping 100+ points in 3 wins. The 4th win for this team has been elusive at 6-12, but fundamentally their key Big Three are playing and road wins come 22-13. Hornets dropped 2 and missing Peja, Posey, Chandler they have not scored over 100+ since 3/11. Hornets 4-12 as underdog, 2-7 against winning teams in 2nd half of season.

SAN ANTONIO -1.5 -107 for 1 unit(L)

Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons
Understanding the implications for the Total to fall below is bit of a miss calculation at 184.5? I do see Detroit moving the pace increasing output and 76er should simulate the faster tempo. Maybe come closer to 200 point total.

OVER 184.5 at +100 for 1 unit(w)

Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers
Wizards on a back to back with Pacers road game. Agent Zero making his first game back is expected out on the second of back to back, but they looked confident as a team. A team that can score.

OVER 207 at -104 for 1 unit(W)

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
Have not published this play in a while, but this game has over +75% public on Road favorite Suns. The public play is to be faded or pass and I will take a position with late line move.

Kings +6 at +101 for 1 unit(W)

3-1 +1.94 units

NBA Saturday

YTD 28-33-1 -0.16 units

New York Knicks at Charlotte Bobcats.
This is the match up of great ATS teams. Forget their record look at what happens with the spread, NYK 41-30 & Cats 43-29. Cats are pretty good at home 20-17, 22-15 ATS, but outstanding 12-3 second half season against teams with losing record. Considering the risk Knicks are very good on the road 21-12 ATS and 7-2 getting 7 points on the road. With two good ATS teams playing taking the points make sense.

NEW YORK KNICKS +7 at -106 for 1 unit(L)

Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trailblazers
I really don't see Memphis covering at the Garden, but I'm going back to crunching the scoring Total. For all concerned this should be a scoring drop for both team and it should be tough reaching in the 180's.

MEM/POR UNDER 190 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz
Another game that will not reach. Jazz might drop this one at home, but defense and low post plays will be the key.

PHO/UTA UNDER 230 at +101 for 1 unit(W)

2-1 +1.94 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 28-32-1 +0.86 units

Today the line has swung widely towards the Lakers (56-14) best in the west. They are on a long road trip, but they are winning. Tonight at Detroit the Pistons are hurting and hurting they will play. It's always dangerous to underestimate your NBA opponent, but it's hard to think these Pistons have any chance or even cover. I will take the Over in this spot as offensive increase looks likely.
Even if Lakers defense limits Pistons I like the chance of Lakers offense making up the difference.

LAKERS/PISTONS OVER 193.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.02 units

NBA Monday

YTD 27-31-1 +0.82 units

Miami taking out Detroit at the Palace +7 underdog taking it SU going away. Heat at 100% just about had everyone in double figures and scored into triple figures. Miami looking good, aren't they? Memphis Grizzlies up next at home, Memphis losers of 4 in a row 1-3 ATS. They allowed triple digits to opponents 3 out of last 4. Looking very much like a no brain er. The problem with fading this 5-28 road team is they have covered 10 out of 28 road losses giving them 15-18 ATS record. In opposite Miami is very mediocre 16-19 home ATS. Miami playing 2nd of back to back with Wade coming off a 39 point output may get some breather here with B team getting added minutes. Also like the rising number. Keep in mind Grizzlies are playing improved ball in second half and they were embarrassed by Boston.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +9 at +105 for 1 unit(L)

A rare second game for late night action at the Valley of the Suns.
I know everyone loves the Suns at home and they are destroying their opponents, but Denver getting points here is just too tempting. Take it for what it is, a tightly contested match up, and I'll take the points on all these types of game.

DENVER NUGGETS +3.5 at +104 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.04 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 26-31-1 -0.18 units

Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks. This game has it's advantages in the Total where Mavs have compiled O/U 33-35 which is Road O/U 13-22. Hawks are O/U 16-21 as favorites 1-6 against Southwest 7-17 in non-conference game. All coming together after both teams played Over and recent game patterns suggest a drop in production.

DAL/ATL UNDER 196.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Wednesday

YTD 25-31-1 -1.27 units

NJ Nets at NY Knicks is the game that stuck out immediately. It was +7 for visiting Nets with money slightly more on Nets, but holding steady. The last game was NJ -5 which PUSHED and 3 previous meeting was 7 ~ 7.5 and NY has taken 4 out of last 6 with 1 push to direct this selection little further NJ comes to MSG logging 4 straight losses SU & ATS last one at Denver was 25 point blow out loss while NY comes winner of 4 straight ATS & 3 out of 4 SU bringing both teams back to the circle the same match up that took place 3/08 in New Jersey 101-106 loss for NY and ATS PUSH. So two teams that went in different direction meet again. Knicks have been playing well and given the balance better matched, but Nets haves managed to work the paint against these Knicks and compensated the lower FG%. NJ is much better road ATS team and NY similary good on the road, but not giving points at home. Taking the points and visiting Nets.

NJ NETS +7 at +109 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.09 units

NBA Saturday

YTD 24-31-1 -2.27 units

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
Going against the tired home team and taking San Antonio with points

SPURS +2.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Friday

YTD 24-30-1 -1.20 units

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors.
Dirk Nowitzki is putting the Mavs on his shoulders. Can the Big German haul this team through the Western swing? They have the momentum, but Warriors have their weapons back with Monta Ellis back in action.
There is an offensive expectation at O/U 224 which is reachable in a sense Dallas has exceeded +200 total 4 straight out of last 10 games and total doesn't go below 200 for the Warriors, but went Over in last 2 games both totals in 220's
I'm going against the Over and look for Dirk to keep it steady at the post.

DAL/GSW UNDER 224 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.07 units

NBA Saturday

YTD 24-29-1 -0.20 units

Orlando at Philadelphia
Powerful Magic team comes to town and line makers have this just about tight as you can put the Sixers at +1.5 slight home dogs. You figure the books are thinking Sixers have a good chance to beat the Magic outright at home.
I agree.

76ers +1.5 +100 for 1 unit(L)

Couldn't hold that lead!
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Tuesday

YTD 23-29-1 -1.28 units

Hello gang. Today I will follow Denver into Miami in what looks to be a tight contest. Miami Heat is D Wade & company which can hold their own especially in their home floor, but this Nuggets team is moving without much notice and they look the most dangerous. Denver Nuggets to take this away would not surprise me.

NUGGETS -1.5 at +108 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.08 units

NBA Monday

YTD 23-28-1 -0.23 units

Clippers at Bobcats.
What can you say about a team with it's flagship radio station, 710 ESPN, dumping them in the middle of their season. ESPN is promoting the Lakers coming next season. Marred with injuries there's not much fight in the "Play it Loud" campaign, but return of Randolph has been a impact. Sure the raining 3's are a bit of anomaly, but Randolphs inside threat gives the shooters open looks. Yes, this game is winnable for the home team who are thirsting for one and they have beat the Clippers before, but Gordon and Throton has grown with the battles and Randolph's making it interesting.

Clippers +2.5 for -105 for 1 unit(L)

What a no-show for B.Davis!
0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Tuesday

YTD 20-27-1 -2.25 units

Milwaukee Bucks at New Jersey Nets.
Like the Bucks getting points and keeping it close

MIL. BUCKS +4.5 at -105 units(L)
BUCKS/NETS UNDER 196 at 100 for 1 unit(W)

Toronto at Cleveland
Going against my underdog nature.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -10 at 103 for 1 unit(W)

BOSTON/76ERS OVER 191 at +102 for 1 unit(W)




3-1 +2.02 units

NBA Monday

YTD 19-27-1 -3.25 units

Looking to stop the slide tonight with L.A. Clippers at Miami Heat.
Haven't put this play down on blog, but its something I've been following for awhile and I'm riding the game Over.

CLIPPERS & HEAT OVER 191.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

Yeah it takes a total play to stop the slide.
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Saturday

YTD 18-26-1 -3.27 units

Somethings got to give with this continuing run of losers.
Utah Jazz at Portland Trailblazer.
I'm sure Blazers -9.5 suggests Jazz as the play for cover and normally I would invert the suggestions, but there has been too many of these.

UTAH JAZZ +9.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

This game total looks too high, but it's deceiving
NYK/IND OVER 226 at +107 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.02 units

NBA Friday

YTD 18-25-1 -2.27 units

Last game on board tonight. I know Kings at Arco doesn't come close to the fortress it once was and Bulls are licking their chops to take the Kings down on their home court. Very likely scenario to break Bulls out of their norm and that's the public play. The line has reversed since opening which is always a precursor to a upset.

SACRAMENTO KINGS ML +100 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Thursday

YTD 18-24-1 -1.22 units

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns.

In the valley of the Suns Spurs roll in on the Rodeo road trip. You know the story of this annual bonding event for the San Antonio group, but taking out the Jazz and coming here on second of back to back Spurs are a marked team.

SUNS -1.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Wednesday

YTD 18-23-1 -0.22 units

Bulls at Clippers Second Half.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +0.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)

Not feeling it.
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Tuesday

YTD 18-21-1 +1.83 units

Charlotte Bobcats at Los Angeles Lakers.Look for Lakers out of the gate. Not much for motavation, but L.A. to set the tone early.

L.A. LAKERS FIRST HALF -6.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)

Taking more of the same.

L.A. LAKERS SECOND HALF -7.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.05 units

NBA Monday

YTD 18-20-1 +2.90 units

New Jersey Nets at Oklahoma Thunder.
Nets end their 5 game losing skid at Grizzlies expense and comes to Oklahoma to meet up with the bottom dweller Thunder. First thought with these Nets taking the road on Jan. 21 played 3 games in 4 days, improving 3 games, than takes a breather and back on on Monday. Looking like a downer on Monday against the Thunder? Could happen, Oakies are playing much better as of late. Odds makers think so too with home team favored -3.5 points, but Thunders decline is immanent. It maybe already happening coming into this game. I'm taking the points.

NETS +3.5 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

Got in early before the line move, but it was still the wrong side.

0-1 -1.07 units

NBA Sunday

YTD 17-20-1 +1.90 units

Dallas at Boston.
Times have changed and so have these two teams, Dallas owns 16-6 record with 7-4 in Boston against the C's running far back to 96'. This season does not reflect that track record Boston back on track and Mavs are still searching to make a run. Dallas dropped the last 5 out of 6 meetings against Cs, but they were 6 points or less differential in 4 out of last 5 meet within range of generous +9.5 in any body's house. However this game looks to expose the growth of gap between these two teams. Boston Celtics double digit wins goes back 5 games in a row and this game should have higher offensive number than last one against Orlando.

BOSTON -9 at -106 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Sunday

YTD 16-20-1 -0.10 units

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers are sliding, but I'm not here to advise a fade or a home dog play.
Playing the TOTAL points also known as OVER/UNDER.
Current number as of this writing stands at 201.5 dropping from opening 202.
Relatively low number from Suns perspective and high for short handed Clippers.
These two matched up 1/02/2009 at Phoenix with 199 Total which was eclipsed 106-98, that was the second game of 6 consecutive OVERS for LAC.
Not that consecutive Overs have much weight considering the odds makers have not been far off, but Clippers are capable of scoring in the 70s with opponent dropping triple digits and still going Under anytime. So I'm looking at the line with latter scenario to to drive down the number a bit more. This angle gauging the high and low range of scoring rates Suns coming off a peak scoring. I think Suns are likely not going to exceed what they scored last game, 128, but good chance to hit into triple digits and Clips coming off close or at bottom scoring is likely to improve from 80 points. Will it be enough? That's the question. I think the key is Clippers scoring and their 2 past clunker games they just ran out of gas. Look for recharged Clips and jubilant Suns to push this score Over

OVER 201.5 at -105 for 2 units (W)

NBA Thursday

YTD 15-20-1 -2.10 units

To say Clippers are raising their level of play may sound sarcastic with 8-26 record, but 16-18 ATS puts them on equal footing with 16-17-1 ATS San Antonio Spurs. Clippers recent 4-1 last 5 comes in with 3 road ATS wins while Spurs with 8-2 last 10 SU are 2-3 last 5 ATS and giving double digit point spread at home has failed last 2 tries, 3 times if you count -9.5 to 76ers, last 4 situations is 2-1-1 so Clippers playing tight may not be such a fantasy. However you have to feel something out of norm when Eric Gordon is putting in 32 points followed by Al Thornton's 25 against Dallas at home, Gordon's second 30 plus point game in a row with 31 against Pistons, playing well beyond expectation with most of their main players hurt. This game looks to expose how hurt this Clippers team really is.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -12.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)

NBA New Years Eve

YTD 15-19-1 -1.06 units

Happy New Years!
On the eve of 2009 excitement is building, but the fact is I'm looking forward to a smaller gathering. Already got my digital new years greetings set to blast and that's about it. I guess 2008 has been tough on many, including myself, and it'll be good to start a new.




76ers at Clippers


Sixers got blasted in Utah last game, 3rd game where they allowed over 105 points. They have dropped first 3 out 6 game road trip bringing their total to 5-10 on the road, 1-2 ATS on this road trip 6-9 ATS on road, Prized acquisition forward, former Clippers product, Elton Brand inactive since dislocating right shoulder in 3rd quarter against Milwaukee on 12./17 missing 5 games so far and expected out for a month. But Clippers are the Underdog here without Zach Randolph, bruised knees and Baron Davis battling back problems is only scoring less than 12 points. The likely scenario for tonight's match up is Clippers by nature and missing offense coupled with Sixers will to play bit more defense will keep tonight's total low.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS AT LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS UNDER 187 at -104(L)

0-1 -1.04 units

NBA Sunday

YTD 15-17-1 +1.04 units

New York Knicks hosting Denver Nuggets in day time match up. Knickerbockers have now allowed over 100 points in 5 straight games. Knicks also lose 5 in a row, 3 in a row ATS. Disappointing to say the least considering they swept ATS on recent 5 game road trip. The last two games, 12/21 loss at Boston 104-124 was 2nd most allowed in regulation and 12/26 loss at home to Minnesota 107-120 giving up 3rd most in regulation, both are bit out of the norm, but reinforcing this season's Knicks "play no Defense" mix that with Nuggets team loaded with offensive talent and get yourself a 0/U 220. Lofty number 3rd highest in NY games, 12/15 @Suns 226 & 11/29 Warriors 223.5 , road game went Under home game went Over. It's also Denver's 3rd highest O/U with other top two being, yep 12/20 @Suns 222 & 11/05 Golden State 229.5 and both of these went Under. Nuggets have the talent to score at will if given no defense and it makes sense to tie in offense defense to Totals, but they really have not been scoring not to mention they have dropped 5 out of last 6 ATS. They're offense drop a bit on the road too. These teams given scoring potential gives us this number, but they are not the true Over team that can blast this type of number.

UNDER 220 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

Plan B for the day is a play on Hornets.
Hornets at Indy. I know the Pacers can keep it close at home, but after Hornets showing against Houston. New Orleans to make a run.

HORNETS -4.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.10 units

NBA Monday

YTD 15-16-1 +2.06 units

On this dog day Monday we are backing a bottom rung Warriors against one of the NBA elite Magic. Orlando is without Howard, but there seems to be little doubt of slow down against Golden State.

WARRIORS +3.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.02 units

NBA Sunday

YTD 14-14-1 +2.02 units

Lakers road trip did not look good and it's reflecting their road ATS. Bucks on improve and they are nearing full strength. Buck have a losing record in Los Angeles, but the margin of loss is narrowing under 5 points. However double digit ATS is misleading line towards the Bucks given tonight's situation. I think this Total seems reachable and better spot than the sides with 1st half push. Look for Lakers to show focus back at Staples and likely scoring push will take this game Over the Total.

LAKERS/BUCKS OVER 1st Half 106 at -107 for 1 unit(L)
LAKERS/BUCKS OVER 208.5 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

This game ain't going Over these two teams are putting up High School numbers!

Well, the game is always about swinging from one side to the other and the Books are still holding plus triple digit number.

LAKERS/BUCKS OVER 2nd Half 103.5 at +107 for 2 units(W)

1-2 +0.04 units

NBA Tuesday

YTD 13-14-1 +1.02 units

Jazz at Kings.
Satco maybe due, but few feel that way. Jazz short handed, as well as Kings, and Arco games are just not going their way. Is it a short sighted play? The line suggests resistance and there's always the contrarian play not to mention Kings home record beating Utah. I think Sacramento will lose this by more than a basket.

Jazz -1.5 at -115 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Sunday

Looking to bounce back from a dismal loss. YTD 13-13-1 +2.02 units

Houston Rockets proving themselves road worthy team running 7-3 road ATS. Rockets coming off a great shooting and defensive game against their South West rival San Antonio at home bring their balanced game to Pepsi center where they will meet 5-2 at home Nuggets who are very good when scoring above +99 which they have done 4 out of last 4 games and 3 out of last 3 home games, winning 5-2, but 50% ATS. What you have here is two teams on Over tread 4-1 and in both cases showing signs of tapering score with this spot being a decline game. Yes the books have given a very temping number to hit the Over, but this one goes Under..

HOUSTON/DENVER UNDER 193.5 at +101 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Saturday

YTD 13-12-1 +3.02 units

Dallas covers the spread with run built in the 1st half, but Lakers push in the 2nd half was too much to hold the lead. Tonight on Mav's second of road back to back they make the short skip to Sacramento visiting the Kings at Arco a much shorter than trip from Salt Lake. Arco Arena doesn't mean much lately as Kings dropped against visiting NJ in OT (11/26), got killed by Blazers (11/21), Spurs by a basket (11/16), Suns by a basket in OT (11/14)*Last ATS win by a point, Detroit was close 0.5 point ATS loser and the last game they won at home? Golden State 115-98 covering -3 (11/09). Matter of fact Kings have only won 2 games since that span 11/09 till now however Kings are 50% ATS for the same duration and coming off a ass kicking at Utah after 2 good effort games. Dallas broke a string of 5 straight winners, but covered ATS keeping their stocks up. Public still loving Mavericks numbers are 77%+ on Dallas ATS with Spread at -4.5 which seems misleading to me. Rolling the dice on Kings tonight to make this interesting.

KINGS +4.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)

That was great pick, NOT.
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Friday

YTD 12-11-1 +3.02 units

Dallas at Lakers is getting +10.5 points. I have not seen double digit spread since 2006 between these two teams. Dallas covered -10 at home back in 2/07/2006. Mavericks are playing well lately stringing 5 straight SU wins, but this run looks like running out of steam. Last game against Indiana was a ATS loss no cover. They will most likely not win at Staples and although the spread looks hefty I will chance covering this number for the deepest team in NBA. Lakers improving win after a over Triple digit scoring 60-46 over 3 years is running 6-1 current season and books are still positioning double digit spread which was Lakers weakness in the past. Mavs will have their hands full and they have trouble with offensive oriented teams.


LAKERS -10.5 at +105 for 1 unit(L)

Dallas Mavericks playing excellent 1st half, but books are holding double digit spread in the second.

LAKERS 2nd Half -9.5 at -104 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.00 units

NBA Tuesday

YTD 11-10-1 +3.02 units

Coming out of play lapses. It doesn't mean anything just holidays coming up and things are busy, but I've been honing my plays on NCAA Basketball so not to worry about rust coming off rest.

Staying true to my game, contrarian with plus on money, for the last NBA game on board. Underdog Nets have been showing signs as a road warrior and they're spread has grown to 13.5 points. Lakers no doubt are deep and killed me last time I crossed them, but I will pull the trigger against LA in historically poor situation of double digit favorite with Total set +205 or higher.

Lakers coming off ATS loss to depleted Kings and Koby expressed his thoughts on lack of defense allowing Kings to come within inches even though Sacramento were blown away during the stretch. May see focus from Lakers in protecting their basket, but Nets looking to bring their "A" game.

NETS +13.5 at +104 for 1 unit(L)

This game is not shaping up the way I was thinking. Lakers allowing too many points and unexpected Lopez, a rookie, getting hot in the first half. I see Lakers defense coming down hard in the Second Half.

LAKERS SECOND HALF -7.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 -0.01 unit

NBA Friday

Split last picks with no gain no loss. YTD 11-9-1 +4.07 units

Lakers took care of business in methodical fashion in their last game, 1st of road home back to back, in Phoenix. In that game ATS swung strongly for the Lakers. I thought it was too much points and Suns would push a run on their home court for second half, it never came.
Denver Nuggets also rolling 8-3 ATS beating Spurs, wounded Spur on the road, in their last game and Nuggets are much more deliberate with Billups. This match up first took place back in early November with Nuggets just covering. Last year Lakers were terrible playing the second of back to back, but this year they are arguably the deepest team in NBA. Prior to losing ATS against Denver in last match up Lakers had covered 8 games against Nuggets and now against Denver at home Lakers give -8.5 the exact same number they gave Nuggets at home in Denver. The implication for Lakers to blow out is there, but key to Nuggets ATS gauged on ability to cover away tonight is the rematch situation coupled with Lakers B2B night and Phoenix wire to wire games all giving too much weight (point spred) to Los Angeles Lakers.

DENVER +8.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 10-8-1 +4.07 units

There are two types of vertigo: subjective and objective. There is a subjective vertigo when a person has a false sensation of movement. In the case of objective vertigo, the surroundings appear to move past a person's field of vision.
Vertigo can also occur after long handicapping of games where the mind gets used to turbulence, resulting in a person's feeling as if he is moving up and down. This usually subsides after a few days.
Lakers at Suns. Phoenix takes out Detroit after Detroit wins Lakers, but Suns were handled by Utah in their last game. Lakers since losing their first game this season bounced back nicely and had the second highest scoring output against Chicago, but it was a no cover ATS loss. 2 ATS losses in a row and allowed highest score to opponent making 2 triple digit scoring by opponent. Going against the public on Lakers and Over.

SUNS +5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

LAL/PHO UNDER 206 at +102 for 1 unit(W)

Split.
1-1 +0.00 units

NBA Wednesday

YTD 9-8-1 +2.99 units

Philadelphia 76ers at Minnesota Timberwolves.76ers blew out Oaklahoma 110-85 last game. That makes 3 in a row, two of them double digit ATS win. Yes they look good, but Wolves with 8 straight losses have taken last 3 out of 4 ATS. Looking for the T-Wolves to break out.

MIN +3.5 at +108 for 1 unit(W)

Yes, SU dog winner.
1-0 +1.08 units

NBA Tuesday

YTD 9-7-1 +3.99 units

Coming off a disappointing loss, clippers home game against the San Antonio spurs. Clippers could not muster enough offense to take out the tired San Antonio Spurs as they lost on the home court by a three pointer before the final buzzer. The losses on first half and the second half making it a 0-2 day.

Tonight we move on to Los Angeles. Lakers had that humiliating loss against the Detroit pistons playing on the back that night and dominated the Lakers at home wire to wire. Lakers could not find their rhythm as Detroit scored at will. Tonight Lakers are 13 points favorite against the Bulls making their annual thrashing road trip as the circus hits town. Look at this Total 202, it's too high and it's been rising since opening. Lakers should be concerned with allowed points and Bulls will not help pushing the Over.

Bulls have played 5 home games from 11/7 ~ 11/15 going 3-2, O/U 3-2. Scoring improved in their home stand scoring +99 points 3 times and lowest scoring was 97. But prior to their home stand Bulls recorded 93 points twice and 80 points at Boston, all on the road. Bulls defensive side also improved in their home stand wins allowing 91 points twice and 83 points against Phoenix. Lakers are coming off their first SU loss and first game allowing 106 points. I think the points they gave up looms big tonight

CHI/LAL UNDER 202 at +107 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Monday Late Game

This line may seem strange to many, but reverse line movement favors the unpopular pick. You know San Antonio is the better team they are ex-champions with much of their core intact, well two of their key players are out tonight, but it's not about that, it's about tonight's game where all the wear and tear is expected to catch up with Spurs. At the same time Clippers are to experience a night of clarity where they will look nothing like the practice dummies they have been. At least that what I'm looking for.

CLIPPERS -2.5 at -104 for 1 unit(L)

Down by 5 at the Half, but don't get discouraged there's plenty of game left and this Spurs team arrived to their hotel at 1:00 am in the morning. Yes Clippers could let this get away, but Duncan will have to carry San Antonio the rest of the way.

CLIPPERS -3 SECOND HALF at +106 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.04 units

NBA Thinking ahead on Monday

Coming off another Total win. 9-5-1 +6.03 units

keep in mind some of stuff I wrote. These games are continuous event moving to different venues with multiple variables and if you went through all the stats, schedule, venue, news, refs, girlfriends, wives.....you would waste your time and have no clue where the advantage lies. The advantage occurs when games result beyond or below the norm and those numbers should stand out above the rest. Consider what changed and that is the key.
I could of made a good point if Detroit Pistons at L.A. Lakers giving up double digits was used for example. You know Pistons are making their Western swing and they fully controlled the Lakers, the elite of NBA, on a back to back road game! Won that game SU away, shooting lights out!
Doesn't that stand out? Was it so surprising to see the same Detroit team fail in Phoenix in following game? Man, I wished I posted that one. Will it be surprising when Lakers dismantle their next opponent? Just thinking ahead.
For Monday I'm looking at Oklahoma at home against Houston. Ex-Sonics are getting good points at home today. Also Clippers at home with reverse line movement getting Spurs on back to back.
Spurs gritty come from behind win in first of back to back facing seemingly helpless Clips.
Both very interesting consideration, but I'm still doing some work to finish today's play.

NBA Saturday

Coming off a Total win last night. YTD 8-5-1 +5.03 units

Reflecting on games last night, there are two still going on in the west PHO at SAC & DET at LAL, I like to focus on tightly played games. They are PHL at IND (94-92), ORL at DAL (102-100), HOU at SAN (75-77). Secondary group within 5 point differential POR at NOL (82-87) and MIL at MEN (101-96 OT). These 2 sets of groups will look at the fundamental aspects of energy exerted in each respective battle. Low scoring games and OT games definitely stand out in this area.
Now comes to tonight's match up NOL at HOU both on heels of back to back games, coming off low scoring and gets a U182 Total. Respective overall numbers, home and away numbers gives me 186~187 Total. This Total represents 2nd lowest number in Hornets games and 4th lowest in Houston game and purely from a average stand point both teams should improve off such a low scoring offense, but games leading to this match up gives an interesting back drop.
Houston comes home from 9 days 5 games road trip out west going 2-3 with 2 sets of 3 games in 4 days. First set from 11/04~11/07 with final game against Clippers posting 181.5 Total going Under with 175 combined score. Second set from 11/12~11/15 includes a brawl in Phoenix, a game Rockets won SU as underdog, and last night's loss to short handed Spurs after winning first 3 quarters only to collapse in the 4th ending 75-77 (152) going Under the lowest Total for this season 173.5 by 21.5 points.
New Orleans Hornets also played similar sets 11/05~11/08 only winning Miami SU, push ATS, going 0-2-1 & 11/12~11/15 no ATS cover so far, but defense has sustained 5 Unders in a row. Hornets have the schedule advantage, but they are lacking points going into Toyota Center.

NOH/HOU UNDER 182 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Friday

YTD 7-5-1 +4.03 units
Split last night so nothing to show for effort. Some might say better than losing, but product of effort should have payoff. Simply the game is the market and everything offered is yours to choose. Always the best bet is the one you do not lose. I've touched on this in the past, but if you treat the book as a market you can take position and get out before game start or take position on both sides with positive money. If your interested in capturing gain techniques you'll have to email me otherwise I'll move on.

Wizards at Heat O/U 196.5 is a low looking number isn't it? It should home / away numbers for these teams indicate this total to be at the low end. It opened 197 and came down, but as usual still mixed. Wiz are coming off their first SU win in low scoring game against Utah. What a contrast to that NYK game where Wiz attempted 89 shots and allowed 90, Wiz shot 71 to Jazz 76 and the deliberate pace is likely again. Miami coming off a home loss to Portland allowed 104 points which is most given up at home this season. There should be stronger defensive effort tonight.

WIZ/HEAT UNDER 196.5 +101 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.01 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 6-4-1 +4.03 units
Nice win yesterday. Not much to go with today's light card, but Denver has been tough on Cleveland for quite awhile. The names may have changed, but the game remains the same.
Cavs coming off a no cover home win which is a good sequence to play against. Denver loves points 6-1 ATS so far to start.

DENVER +7 at +104 for 1 unit(L)

Second Half Detroit at Golden State.
Warriors controlling the tempo and it is getting a bit faster. Let's look for 2nd half to go Over the number.

2ND HALF OVER 100 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.00 unit

NBA Wednesday

YTD 5-4-1 +3.03 units
Knicks faded in the second half or more like Spurs finally took control. Knicks on back to back road game will take +4.5 points and this line is worth watching. Though NY got their ass kicked in 1st of back to back at San Antonio that game should not reflect the second sequence as Memphis coming back from their 5 day 4 game road trip with very good effort ATS cover in last game against Phoenix. Taking Knicks on 2nd sequence with points.

KNICKS +4.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Did not need any points in 132-103 Knicks furious bounce back game.
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Veteransday Tuesday

YTD 5-3-1 +4.03 units
San Antonio Spurs are off to a worst start since pre-Duncan era. Though losing Parker in last game against Miami will be a step up situation at home this Spurs team is also missing another key piece in Manu. Combine this down turn in a match up with New York Knicks, a team that's settling into D'Antoni's system. Looking closer at Spurs past few games starting with Miami. Spurs took higher than average shot attempts hitting low 37.6%, way too many 3 attempts hitting another low 31.4% and went to the line only 13 times to Heats 22. Had the ball stolen 11 times and that's the bulk of the story. Before Miami was Minnesota road game. Spurs squeaked by in OT and biggest lead they held throughout was 7 in a no cover game. It was not impressive losing contest in the paint and again opposition held better shooting percentage. Three games back, Dallas at home. This one Spurs were knocked out in the 1st quarter and pretty much down for the count by 1st half. Mavs never looked back in the 2nd half to cover by 21.5 points. What does these past three games tell us about this game? Knicks will have the edge, but they do make mistakes and NYK at Philadelphia was a good example of how situation can get away.
Road trip into Texas basketball heartland against the wounded Spurs are definitely dangerous situation, however the money line value is too good and worth a shot.

NEW YORK KNICKS MONEY LINE +167(L)

Spurs did step up, but had to take a shot.
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Monday

YTD 4-2-1 +3.03 units
It's one of those Dog day monday, as my Russian friend would say, and Grizzlies looking very interesting at +12 on one of those let down home court return for the Suns. Matter of fact Griz seems to be a popular service pick pushed by the touts. I'll look for poor shooting.

MEN/PHO UNDER 197 ar +105 for 1 unit(L)

Here's one for Batis on the 2nd Half.

GRIZZLIES +7.5 SECOND HALF at -101 for 2 units(W)

1-1 +1.00 unit

NBA Sunday

Took a beat yesterday YTD 4-2 +1.96 units.
Today we're back on Atlanta at Oklahoma City. Looking to stay strong even without Josh Smith Oklahoma will have their hand full tonight.

HAWKS -4 at +103 for 1 unit(Push)

Rockets at Lakers 2nd Half. T-Mac twisted his ankle and Yao is a no show. Lakers climb back from 16 point back to take the lead. Going with the home team in 2nd half.

LAKERS -4.5 2ND HALF at +107 for 1 unit(W)

1-0-1 +1.07 units

NBA Saturday

YTD 4-1 +3.01 units
I'm still here. No need to ignore me I've given you winners. So Football's got you all tied up? NBA a crap shoot? Well allow me to roll the dice. NBA line movement no#4. Playing the Total on First Half O/U 99 Suns at Bucks. This Total comes on the heels of Bucks missing their star player Redd from tonight's line up. A situation where home team will come out to rise above their level. Declined Total at 196 and 2 point differential 99 at Half predicting a pace which will shift slower as this game moves along. Do not underestimate Bucks, but Suns are coming off a decisive loss.

PHO/MIL FIRST HALF OVER 99 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

Can't get'em all. Be back.
0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Wednesday

won last selection. YTD 3-1 +2.01 units
Sorry for lack of enthusiasm starting up in the Association. It's not lack of will I love speculating on NBA with knack for taking down Totals better than Sides, but I'll wager quarters, halves, second halves whatever the game offers. It's just been busy and it's not my nature to force wins, it usually back fires.

On this Wednesday I'll back one of the strongest home court in Utah Jazz. I know many are waiting for teams like Blazers to start mixing it up, but Jazz are knocking out unlikely Western contenders. Looking for surge to continue with maybe stronger defense.

UTAH -6.5 at -101 for 1 unit(W)

Well earned win with home court edge.
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Friday

Tracking Hornets at Suns right now with a bit of interest on the visitors, but today's taking was on NHL with not much NBA.
The last pick was a winner bring our early record to 2-1 +1.00 unit

Clippers fell apart after the first quarter and had a full melt down in the 2nd half. This is very concerning and at the same time build some value if they can show something. Tonight I'll take the road favorite Nuggets.

DENVER -2 at +101 for 1 unit(W)

Scary Halloween winner in OT!
1-0 +1.01 units

NBA Wednesday Late Game

1-1 to start the season, but lost the bigger of 2 so -1.00 unit.

Here we go Lakers on back to back, but off to a impressive start with Blazers amounting to less than a speed bump. We will ride the momentum with Laker 1st half facing the incomplete Clippers across the hall.

LAKERS FIRST HALF -5.5 at -115 for 2 units(W)

Lakers too much in the First Half for Clippers!
1-0 +2.00 units

Couple of Changes

I've added two new links and axed NBX (no longer around). If your a player than you know Matchbook (we worked out our issues) it'll work well for most recreational players and it's a player to player exchange. Good to spread your eggs and still the top is Pinnacle you just can do it directly from U.S. (where there's a will there's a way) I'm thinking about adding Bookmaker, but haven't got around to it.

One Season is real money fantasy exchange. You must of heard of them this site is exploding and for some strange reason you don't know go to their web and check it out for yourself. They'll even give you US$10 for signing up. Get it and buy Kobe or LBJ or D Howard or Nash or some other predictable pro player (it doesn't have to be NBA) and watch your money grow. What the hell, just fund the damn thing and make money. Keep the mantra "buy low sell high" the bulls are running at One Season right now.

NBA Opening Night

Looking foward to Cleveland Boston match up. Cavs look very interesting with Mo Williams addition and should of grabed it with 7 points, but still take it at 6.5 points. On this opening Celtics will most likely lack locking defense and added offense on Cavs side should push this low number Over as well.

CLEVELAND +6.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
OVER 179.5 at +101 for 2 units(L)

I knew the Total was in trouble after the 1st quarter and C's defense picked up big in 3rd quarter to sink the Total Under. Follow the bouncing ball.

1-1 -1.00 units

Get Ready NBA 2008~09

Welcome back handicappers! We are counting the days and preseason games are almost over.
Hope every one's keeping their eyes and ears open because I don't do headlines. If it's obvious public info there's no need to get into it, but it can also be a deterrent to secondary news which may have value and I will bring that up.

If your not familiar with our game we play Dogs or near money and Totals, but look back at some past plays and you'll see Quarters, 1st, 2nd Halves so there's no limitation. We will try to keep it easier for everyone to get their position this year.

Start with last seasons ATS/ML leaders.
Boston
Orlando
New Orleans
Houston
These top 4 teams have 52 or more wins.

Lakers
Washington
Utah
Detroit
Second tier 4 teams Washington has better ATS then Moneyline.

Sacramento
Philly
Denver
Portland
Third tier 4 teams Kings, Sixers and Blazers have better ATS then Moneyline.

Oklahoma Thunder formerly Seattle Supersonics were very tough ATS 39-40-3 teams while going 20-62.
Minnesota ATS 39-42-1 while going 22-60. Both of these teams rank better than San Antonio ATS.

Bottoms feeders.
Clippers
New Jersey
Golden State
Milwaukee
Miami
Memphis
Chicago
Charlotte
Representing 10 games or worse under .500 last season. Warriors despite playing 14 games over .500 their ATS record is 14 games under .500 some elite teams just missed the losers list
Dallas, Clevelnad and San Antonio was not too far off.

NBA Thursday

NBA Playoff New Orleans at San Antonio.
Much discussed Old School vs New Generation. Experience, athleticism, discipline, and all that's been said Spurs are down 2-0 and have not covered since @PHO 4/25. Spurs 37-7 SU at home cover only 23-18-3 ATS, but still dangerous and Hornets did show weakness on the road in Dallas series. What I like here is the Over 182.5 not because of Hornets, but more so because of Spurs. Spurs have shown ability to score something they could not do in New Orleans. Spurs have strung 4 poor offensive games, but it has steadily improved and coming back home maybe just what they need. Hornets offense also climbing steadily 5 games in a row and that's against Dallas and San Antonio.

OVER 182.5 at -115 for 2 units(W)
Game's not over, but Total is.
1-0 +2.00 units