NBA Thursday

Short card today., but good games though. From the looks of it  public take is on Miami as a small road favorite. They are riding strong performance and Chicago has been beaten at home by too many foes. It's been Chicago defense that's been keeping them around, but it's not exactly going under with the Total in low numbers. I think the case is true today with Total 186 being too low. The game does show Miami in point increase position and Chicago on point decline, but realistic number is low 190's. Miami is on scoring terror with 6 consecutive triple digit games tied in with LBJ surging. Chicago had that 69 point loser, but otherwise on their high end of scoring spectrum in their 90's in last 6 and even cracking triple digits at Indy. This is likely to hit 185.5 so you may want to watch the boards.

MIAMI HEAT at CHICAGO BULLS 
Game Total OVER 186 at -101 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

Coming into the second half NBA.

Charlotte Bobcats at Orlando Magic.
Going with low ranking teams. The Magic is anything but magical and the fact is 2 or 3 possession differential point spread favorite is a misleading proposition. The last time Orlando won as a favorite was early season game 2 and 11 which was a single possession favorite the rest are all losers. Yes the Magic coming off -30 points loss against Atlanta is a likely bounce back spot, but this situation has only brought smaller margin of loss and giving up points is not a good idea. The Cats are dismal themselves 3-7 last 10 and also coming off an blow out by the hands of Indiana. Despite their trouble the Cats managed a SU win in Orlando the last meet and the sequence of games leading up to this Orlando games looks very similar to the last time they met. The call is too many points given up by Orlando.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +5 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Monday

29-19-1   9,580

Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76'ers
What's going on with 76'ers games?  Besides their last 10 ATS being 7-3, they were blown out by Indy in one of those loss, but as ATS indicates Sixers are playing well. Their Total is hitting extremely low numbers. Last game  163 under by  28, before that 157 under by  23,  you get the picture. This game has been 185, but downward pressure is coming. Go against the grain the game is going Over as the scores will come via L.A. Clippers and pace will dictate Over.  Despite the low scoring games Phillies total has risen from their last game and Over situation for Clippers after returning to full strength.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS at PHILADELPHIA 76'ers
Game Total OVER 184.5 at -103 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Saturday

28-19-1  8,580

Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Looking at this match. We won easily with Denver in their last game, whupping of Chicago at home, but now they are on the road facing 16-34 Cavaliers. It's about 60% public money on Denver and line movement has been quiet. Denver is winning 8 games straight, 7-1 ATS, crushed three opponents by double digits last game was 26 point margin winner ATS and over 30 point margin straight up. As well as Nuggets are playing Cleveland's got a streak of their own, 3 SU & ATS at home, one of those win coming against NBA contender OKC and the Cavs have logged triple digit scoring in all three games. That makes 4 wins out of last 5 home games all wins with triple digit scoring. Cleveland is playing their best ball so far this season at home. It looks like a match up I don't want to give up points, but again Denver is pretty hot. Rather then sides the high scoring out look is a bit too much. Denver's defense is under rated and Cavaliers tighten defense after allowing triple digit scoring. Both of these teams are coming off offensive scoring off the charts and this game will reverse course. Going Under in Cleveland.

DENVER NUGGETS at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Game Total UNDER 216 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
How did you like that!

NBA Friday

28-18-1  9,680

Chicago Bulls at Utah Jazz
Planning to have a twist to this game. The Bulls getting schooled in Denver should be looking to redeem some respectability so we're going to hit the 2nd half  Utah. What we don't want is the Jazz to come storming out of the gate putting up double digit lead. That may negate this play, but as long as the difference is within 10 I will hit it.  Follow along...

The game is Chicago 58 Utah 50 at the Half.(L)
The line is Utah -4.5 at -110 (It opened -5) Bulls are playing well! But look for defense to step up for the Jazz.

Utah could not finish. That missed 3 point shot would of covered 2nd half ATS!

NBA Thursday

27-18-1   8,680

As the season progresses certain patterns takes shape and similar to recent seasons one home court is proving to be one of the toughest, Pepsi Center in the Mile High city.  Here in Denver where the visiting team need to adjust to 5,280 feet altitude, regardless of those who say it doesn't make a difference, is where the Nuggets hold 21-3 record.

Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets
The Bulls at 29-19 is a team stalking the top teams and they will be better if they can just hang around and get healthy. They hold a winning record at home and away which is always a good indication of a contending team. They will be getting some points at Denver and the Nuggets are rolling winners, 7 straight to be exact, and last time I saw something like this game I got killed playing across the board. Yet again short handed Bulls meet white hot Nuggets. Got to go with Denver.

DENVER NUGGETS -5.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)
That's how it's supposed to be. Should of gone across the board.

NBA Sunday

26-18-1  7,680

Despite the ugly game I did finish Saturday with a profit. Send me a email for additional plays and info.

Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons
The day game today will feature Howard-less Lakers at Detroit. Short home dog always dangerous and indeed the Pistons hold 13-12 home record. The Pistons come in off a fresh win against Cleveland making 3 wins out of last 4 home game, 3 of them scoring triple digits.  Laker record against sub .500 teams is 5-9, 2-5 away from L.A. Although Lakers are moving the ball much better and have won 4 out of last 5, Lakers also scored triple digits in 4 out of last 5. I think this game goes below the Total with scoring indicators reaching a high point. 117 for Detroit and 111 for L.A. is about as high as it gets and this one goes nowhere close to their previous score. Today's Total did reach 202 for a short period, but 201.5 is most common.
We have low scoring refs on the floor and this match up looks to fall short of this number.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS at DETROIT PISTONS
Game Total UNDER 201.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

You guys enjoy the Super Bowl!

NBA Saturday

26-16-1  9,860

Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks
If your not up to date in NBA you'd better check out this match up. It'll be extremely short handed Bulls low on gas on the road.  Atlanta here on revenge mode and well rested.  This game holds promise of wire to wire performance by Atlanta.
We take this game across the board.

ATLANTA HAWKS -2 1st quarter at -110 for 0.5 units(L)
ATLANTA HAWKS -4 1st half at -110 for 0.5 units(L)

ATLANTA HAWKS -7 at -108 for 1 unit(L)
That was ugly.

NBA Friday

26-15-1   10,940

Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets
In this game we predict the nature of the beast will show the defensive side of match up. Chicago coming off a rare triple digit scoring while maintaining the low points allowed, 7 straight games holding opponents in the 80's, and in this spot Bulls scoring will come down. The Nets coming off a loss could not defend in it's last game. This match Brooklyn is not going to allow easy baskets. The situation looks right for a grind out game. Backing the Under tonight.

CHICAGO BULLS at BROOKLYN NETS 
Game Total UNDER 181.5 at -108 for 1 unit(L)
Close, but no cigar.

NBA Thursday

25-15-1   9,940

Small card today. Here's what we're looking at.

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors
We do like the Warriors. They have been playing well at home. Winners in 6 out of last 8 and most recent home wins comes as a Dog against OKC and LA Clippers, both winning teams. Golden State did drop the first two games of the road trip, but bounced back to finish the last two road games by double digit margin wins. Returning home the Warriors will host the Mavericks continuing their road trip.  As much as the Warriors have been money they do come home a bit wounded where as the Mavs got their big German back and rolling 9 out of 10 ATS. Dallas playing better ATS away and winning January games to the tune of 11-3 ATS. Take the road dog on short leash.

DALLAS MAVERICKS +3.5 at -108 for 1 unit(W)
Oops no Dirk! No problem got'm by the hook!

NBA Tuesday

24-15-1   8,940

Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trailblazers
Welcome gang! Another night at the hard court. Blazers play well at home, but two games against the Clippers home and away has been draining. I would normally look at Portland at home on the bounce back, which is the way the line has been moving, but Dallas on the rise will be handful. The Blazers have taken care of business at home against lesser teams however the Mavericks will be
a different story.

DALLAS MAVERICKS +3 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic

Looking at another low level game with little attention. Orlando on 4 game slide and this is a revenge spot. Unfortunately Orlando has not been doing well in revenge spot 5-19 SU and 10-13 ATS. Orlando is also 1-8 as a fovorite. Detroit coming off a no cover double digit loss to Miami on the road, but they were rolling 3 straight ATS including a short cover at Chicago. Like Detroit getting points.

DETROIT PISTONS  +2 at -102 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Saturday

22-15-1   6,890

L.A. Clippers at Portland Trailblazers
The Clippers visit the Rose Garden. This is still a bad spot for the Clippers minus Chris Paul and the small spread indicating a close game is misleading. The Blazers are no joke 14-8 at home facing Clippers in a funk. Being a 1 point home dog does not do justice to this match up. Take the Portland moneyline.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZER ML +105 for 1 unit(W)

Got a rising score here. Take the 2nd Half Over 94.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Friday

22-14-1  7,940

Oklahoma City at Sacramento Kings
OKC fourth quarter collapse did them in at Golden State and you know this is a bounce back spot for the Thunder playing a sub .500 team. You know that the Books know that, but you still like them willing to give up -9.5? Why not consider going Over the big number 209.5 the Kings looking to break over triple digits and the Thunder will have their offense revving.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER at SACRAMENTO KINGS
Game Total OVER 209.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Thursday

21-14-1   6.940

Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns
The Clippers could not defend their home court against Oklahoma in last game and beyond the arc rainbows by the Thunder put that game out of reach. The Suns made a quick trip to Sacramento after 2 home losses and pulled off a upset win SU. Still rare win does not quality for a strong play, but they happen to catch the Clipper bit off balance and last time the Clips played like this they rolled off 4 losses, it's up to 3 losses ATS, so a road trip may not be a remedy. Tonight's match rather than to choose sides the UNDER stands out as both teams coming to a low scoring situation. The Suns over shot their scoring average in last game and this one will decline. Clips weakness in their recent losses comes on the defensive end this should be a clamp down mode game. This game holds promise of grind out type of match and points will come at a premium.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS at PHOENIX SUNS
Game Total UNDER 191 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Tuesday

20-13-1   6,990

Oklahoma City at Los Angeles Clippers
My thought about who's the better team built for the post season? I think it's the Thunder, but here today at Staple Center with CP3 sidelined, a last minute change, pushed the spread to +2.5 points. This I will back. Both teams coming off losses, Clips to the Warriors and Thunder to the Nuggets, looking poised to bounce back. Best record in NBA hangs on this game I'd say home court advantage and points. Oklahoma has been on the ropes in this road trip. Going Los Angeles Clippers.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +2.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

2nd HALF OVER 100 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Monday

19-13-1   5,990

Monday already? Time is flying by isn't it? It's already feeling like Spring, but NBA is still in January. Better stay sharp because we're back to the dog day.

Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Hornets
The bad vs the bad is what we're looking at. Just the type of game that fly's below the radar. The Hornet 13-27 is a respectable 21-19 ATS compared to Sacramento 16-25 is only one game better ATS at 17-22-2 and they are terrible 4-15 on the road. So does the lowly road dog hold any promise? Rather than the Dog coming to play, which is not a bad idea after a rare road win or a win period, the thought here is how porous the Kings have been. The Kings despite not allowing triple digit scoring in their last 3 games it has yet to go 4 games and the current record of 3 straight Under's is the longest streak yet. Sure Hornets have been holding low scoring, but that number too has been on the rise. The situation for Over is 191 and if the game stays close enough this game should go Over.

SACRAMENTO KINGS at NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Game Total OVER 191 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Friday

17-13-1  3,990

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
I see the road favorite Thunder is where the money has been pushing, but Mavs are looking better more and more. You don't want to count them out this early the Texas road trip is a killer for many teams. It's going to be a good game and I would go with the points, but the less popular Total Over is the better choice. This game tonight get's a high 205.5, which is perceived as too high, is very much reachable.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER at DALLAS MAVERICKS
GAME TOTAL OVER 205.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

*SECOND HALF
The game has closed the first half below 100 and second half Total 103 suggesting the game on pace Under 205.5 is still very reachable. Meaning 2nd half Over is a bonus.
OKC at DAL OVER 103 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Tuesday

17-12-1   4,440

Milwaukee Bucks at L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are money makers if your playing against them. They've had some big pay outs especially if you were on some of those big dogs and happened to throw a bone at the improbable money line. You've done well. I suppose the Lakers can pat their backs for beating Cleveland at home, winning coast to coast to boast, but that was their second ATS win out of last 7 and one of those win came as a 13.5 underdog.
Bucks playing well on the road, 3 out of last 4, last time they got 6 points on the road Milwaukee took the game SU.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS +6 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

MLB Monday

16-12-1  3,440

Another dog day Monday coming up!

L.A. Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
This line moved around from -2.5 down to -1.5 before the Chris Paul "out" news broke out and the line moved to -4 and sitting on -4.5 which is a big deal considering CP3 is the game closer and field general. The Clippers are not the Clippers of old, but they were looking to invade one of the toughest court in NBA against one of the premier team. It was a pretty even looking ATS and there is an old angle to consider here. With Chris Paul out you back the team without their star player in the first game of his absence. A step up type game between two winning teams. The theory is the team without their star player will collectively improve covering the absence. Most effective in the first game as prolonged absence will wear down the unit.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +4.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Thursday

14-12-1  1090

Miami Heat at Portland Trailblazers
Miami has been struggling of late going 3-4 SU & 1-6 ATS coming to the Rose Garden where the Blazers have not dropped a game since 12/8. Yes, the Heat can bounce back from another low scoring game like the one they played against Chicago then won and covered a big road spread at Washington. But the Heat lost by 10 points in Indy scoring only 77 and Blazers in Portland is not going to be easy of a bounce back. The Heat has yet to cover these short lines as a road favorite. Portland to hand another loss to Miami take the money line and ATS.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS +135 for 1 unit(W)
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS +3.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Wednesday

13-12-1   90

Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers
Two teams in two different spectrum as Dallas once a dominant force in NBA is now below .500 team and Clippers once basement team now one of the elite. In a situation where Clippers wins have become expected and Mavericks loss anticipated the spread has swelled to 10.5, it was 11 earlier, a large number. However Clippers have covered as double digit home favorite quite easily this season. The Mavs have received 10.5 points 4 times so far all on the road covering the spread 3 out of 4 making them formidable with this many points. Will the Clippers cover? I would be surprised because they are on two consecutive games with rising shooting percentage above their average and they blew out Golden State in last start. Look for Clippers be a bit lack luster in this No Cover game.

DALLAS MAVERICKS +10.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Tuesday

12-12-1  -910

It's been a while. Hope everyone is safe and doing well. We are looking at Phoenix at Milwaukee Total of 199. This number from average perspective the Suns scoring less than 20 points a quarter in recent games seems like a high mountain to climb. On Milwaukee's side the scores have gone triple digits and sailed Over at home. So how does this game stand to adjust? It goes Over based on both teams coming below moving average score. Both teams coming off 80ish scoring games, about 15 points below for the Suns and the Bucks. Look for scoring to push up, maybe triple digit scoring on both sides.

PHOENIX SUNS at MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Game Total OVER 199 at -106 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

11-12-1   -1,910 

Philadelphia Seventy Sixers at Brooklyn Nets

Despite the Sixers going way Over the Total in their last 2 road trips. The two games that's gone Over, both in Texas at Dallas and at Houston, unusual in back to back situation allowed and scored triple digits. Last time that happened was 11/24, 11/25 Oklahoma City and Phoenix back to back, but it doesn't happen often and Philadelphia plays Under on the Road. Brooklyn Nets also plays Under better on the road, but they play Under overall and team offense defense points stat very similar to Philadelphia. This line has been trending tight, but finally broke above 187 for the second time. Taking the hook with the Under.

PHILADELPHIA at BROOKLYN
Game Total UNDER 187.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

11-10-1  120

L.A. Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers
There's a strange relation between the Lakers backers to continuously look for reasons to take the Lakers. Coming off a road win, ATS Push, at Washington was good, but not inspiring especially how close they cut it in the 4th quarter. Maybe the feeling is Lakers are climbing, they held a opponent under 100 points, only happened 3 times in last 10 games, and the Sixers seem to be declining dropping 2 in a row unable to score 90 points in both games. That puts Philadelphia 11-12 ATS, 6-8 Home ATS, Sixers stock is falling. However Lakers ATS at 9-14, 3-7-1 away (3-8 if you had the hook in Washington), has been a money team to play AGAINST. Philadelphia bounce back game after 2 losses this season 4 out of 4. 6-3 playing a losing team, 8-2 against poor defensive teams allowing more than 99 points. 4-1 after a loss by 10 points or more. Lakers are 1-6 in non conference games, 0-2 against Atlantic division and just not good on the road.
Take Philadelphia +3.5 and Take Philadelphia Money Line.

PHILADELPHIA +3.5 at -103 for 1 unit(L)
PHILADELPHIA ML +145 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Friday

10-10-1  -880

Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets
Memphis is a forward progressing team. This mix of talent plays very well as a unit scoring just above 97 points on average and holding opponents to just below 91 points the winning differential is a excellent 6.5 points. That's a mark of a good defensive minded team. 14-4 and ATS 12-5-1 record making the Grizz a usual suspect to play on any given night. The host Denver Nuggets is a middle of the pack, 11-12 and ATS 13-10, team not living up to the expectations, but the Nuggets were on the road quite a bit, 6 at home 17 on the road, and they're forte is at the Pepsi Center not on the road. Denver 5-1 at the mile high city coming off a ATS cover at Minnesota. The Grizzlies have not covered in past 4 games and struggling to score. Coming to Denver will not be easy to make the turn around. Going with Denver

DENVER NUGGETS -1 at -103 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Thursday

10-8-1  1,280

Charlotte Bobcats at Atlanta Hawks

Two teams headed to a different direction, is what the reviews will tell you. Yes the Hawks are winning games 10 out of last 12, 7-2 at home, and one tough team to crack. Charlotte is on the other extreme where as hard as they may try the win just slips through their finger. As easy as the wins have been coming for Atlanta that's not always the case for covering the spread. The Atlanta Hawks are one of the top teams to record one of the worst ATS record and the Bobcats kept it close enough to cover the last meet. It very much seems the case today with the Cats getting +10.5 points coming off a ATS cover against the streaking Clippers and the Hawks just covering the spread against Orlando just as easily could of been a no cover. Although Charlotte with hefty points is a angle good enough for a play the Total to sink Under 194 with Charlotte on the road making this a grind out game and Atlanta scoring Total on the decline is the top play. Atlanta Total set between 192 to 195 have yet to go Over.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS at ATLANTA HAWAKS
Game Total Score UNDER 194 at -109 for 2 units(L)

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +10.5 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Monday

10-7-1  2,380

Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 11-9, 7-5 at home holding a winning record and they will be hosting Detroit Pistons coming in at 7-15, 2-10 on the road, trying stay out of the NBA Central basement. Going into NBA Atlantic is a tough task for any team with only Toronto having a home losing record. The Sixers will look to regain the home edge and get back a win after splitting home win road loss on back to back games against Boston. The last game was not only a loss for the Sixers but their third lowest scoring game at 79 so there should be some offensive effort here. Most betters will side with the Sixers and they will count on Philadelphia to take care of business knocking out a weak road team like Detroit...  However you must keep in mind it was the Wells Fargo Center where the Pistons ended their 8 games straight losing streak to open their season. Since that win Detroit is playing .500 ball and they seem to be a spoiler for certain teams, like Oklahoma City beat them twice ATS, Cleveland twice SU & ATS and Philly round two? Detroit offensive scoring has risen in 5 straight games coming off a rare road win, even if it was against weak Cleveland team it was a step up for the Pistons. The 76ers very prone to dropping consecutive games as they have only bounced back from a single loss once against the spread and have yet to do so straight up. Going with the Pistons being a thorn to the Sixers.



DETROIT PISTONS +6.5 at -110(L)
Just missed

NBA Monday

10-6-1  3,480

Portland Trailblazers at Charlotte Bobcats
Another rare Bobcats game being favored at home. First was 11/13 Washington 92-76 win cover -2 U191 the Wizards biggest ATS margin loss -14 then 11/21 Toronto 98-97 win No cover O192.5, the second game was against a team that was playing the second set of back to back 4 games in 5 days. Portland has been a small road dog 4 times 11/13 @Sacramento 103-86 win cover 2.5 U197.5 next was 11/21 @Phoenix 87-114 loss no cover 2 just O200.5 then 11/26 @Detroit 101-108 loss no cover 1 O193 and their last game 12/01 @Cleveland 118-117 double OT win cover 1.5 O193, but was headed Under in regulation. This particular match looks to go UNDER 194 as this is a rising Total following both teams playing Over (Portland was O193 and Charlotte was O188 with this game set at 194) Portland trending UNDER away 6-4, after allowing +105 points UNDER is 2-5 historically 25-13 and scoring +105 is UNDER 23-15. The Bobcats and the Trailblazers have been allowing triple digits to their respective opponents, but neither of these team rarely break 100. Struggling defense may give up the Over, but lacking offense will only eat up the clock.

PORTLAND at CHARLOTTE UNDER 194 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Sunday

9-6-1  2,480

Orlando Magic at L.A. Lakers
Magic is on the slide and they might not Jameer Nelson, he's game time decision, but Lakers put on a clink against Denver Nuggets 122-103 win and Magic starters may not be any concern. There's a fat chance Orlando take this game in L.A. 14-32 all time, 4-18 in L.A., however has won 6 of last 9 meetings splitting the last 4 meetings. The Lakers are playing off a young season high I feel their game to drop off a bit maybe not enough decline to lose this game, but giving up this many points may come back to bite their backers in the 4th quarter. My take on the Magic is they last peaked on 11/23 beating Cleveland SU then 1 point margin ATS loss against Boston further declining to San Antonio blow out loss by -13.5 ATS margin. From there Brooklyn game although a loss was a bounce back game just about even at the half and ATS loss margin was -7.  The Lakers +19 point win against Denver, like the blow out win against Dallas, the follow up game has been disappointing. Sure the Lakers have the talent and fire power to blow away the Magic, but will looks for Orlando to hang around for the late cover.

ORLANDO MAGIC +13.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Friday

9-5-1  3,560

Portland Trailblazers at Boston Celtics
The Blazers on the road for 7 games stretch and they've dropped the first the Brooklyn, in low scoring game, then at Detroit, got the score up over 100, but gave up more, and the winless Washington Wizards are winless no more thanks to the Blazers. Boston on the other side lost Rajon Rondo on 2 game suspension. Coming off a low scoring loss to Brooklyn this one looks to improve with production in the paint. Although Boston at home is not be taken lightly Portland feeling a bit caught as the first team to lose to Washington when they could of pulled out a win. The Blazers have had ATS success with Boston and they will look to get their first road win on their trip. I think they will take this game with Celtics lacking stability.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS -108 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

8-5-1  2,560

Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers
This game has that UNDER feel to it since the line opened and the market has pushed the number down to 201.5 from 204. It's understandable Cleveland coming off 78-84 SU loss ATS +12 cover and way UNDER 193 by -31 points. Second leg of away home B2B and they are UNDER at home so far 3-1. Visiting Suns are simply not good on the road. Their performance drops and I think this game will sink UNDER. I don't recommend chasing lines, I already got it at the open 204, but I will recommend the number based on this situation in Cleveland.

PHOENIX SUNS at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Game Total UNDER 201.5 at -105(W)

NBA Saturday

7-5-1 1,560

Los Angeles Clippers at Atlanta Hawks
The Clips drop 2 in a row, at Oklahoma then Brooklyn as a road favorite and second half scoring comes to a grind in 76-86 finish. They had won 6 in a row prior, but the spike came on two ends of it's Total. One at Oklahoma with season's highest score and the lowest scoring game in Brooklyn. This game looks to adjust back towards the middle. Atlanta has scored in triple digits twice in a row making it 3 times in last 4 games which is a turn from their earlier games and although this match up back in Nov.11th went Under by 30 points, second lowest scoring game this season for both teams, the adjustment from the Books are too low.
L.A. O/U 12-7 after scoring 85 points or less. Atlanta home game Total between 185 to 189.5 O/U 13-10 Last two meetings in Atlanta has gone Over and 10 out of 15 has gone Over.  In proceeding game expect some point decline from Atlanta, but bigger point increase from L.A. going Over this low Total.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS at ATLANTA HAWAKS
Game Total OVER 188 at -105 for 1unit(W)
93-104 That's a OVER.

NBA Tuesday

7-3-1 3,760

Had a excellent night yesterday going 2-0. Games are getting warmer, but still November and there's the College hoops (Doesn't get posted) which we are hitting higher percentage then NBA. Not to worry though it's not about which sports to play on, but to have the best option available which means having abundance of choices. You also have a choice of A or B or none of the above and it never hurts to take none of the above.

Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers
The Total is creeping up a bit, but while the Lakers play at home we are tracking the Over. Let's look at the Nets past games. In small sample they are O/U 0-3 on the road. Went Under at Sacramento after taking two straight Over's at home. Their previous high total of 208 at Miami on 11/7 went crashing Under by 32 points, was not even close 73-103 loss. However the Nets very capable of scoring in triple digits only missed the century mark by 1 point and with point declines in three straight games this one is very likely to go Over. Lakers in tradition with past great Lakers teams have always excelled in open court, their defense will come around more likely on the road, with so many weapons. Keeping the pedal to the metal. The Lake Show and total Over.

BROOKLYN NETS at LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Game Total OVER 208 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

LOS ANGELES LAKERS -6.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
That was a mess 0-2

NBA Monday

5-3-1  1,760

My friend Batis always used to say Mondays are dog day and that's the way we're capping.

Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawaks
Orlando in play with the Hawks heavily favored at -10. The under estimated Magic is sliding with 6 losses out of last 7 failing to reach 100 points in all 6 of those losses. Atlanta has dominated the Magic in past 10 matches and they are coming off a 112-96 win at Sacramento beating the spread by double digits. The trouble with Hawks big margin wins have been the following game giving up big points, recall win at Oklahoma by 9 as a +9 point dog winning margin of 18 points then no cover ATS giving up -4 against Indiana. The loss at Golden State was also following 10 point margin win at Portland. Magic gets no love Orlando on 3rd game in 4 days, but still in a bounce back spot and this schedule comes after 2 day off.
Going with the Orlando dog.

ORLANDO MAGIC +10.5 at -109 for 1 unit(W)

ORLANDO MAGIC at ATLANTA HAWKS
Game Total UNDER 187 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
 Better known as the "Back door Cover" and for those who were on the Hawks "Back door Moose"  

NBA Sunday

3-3-1  -270

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
Following up on my wager notes Michael D'Antoni will officially coach his first game recovering knees and all. He says if the Lakers are not scoring 110 to 120 his scheme is not working right. That scheme was on the money against the Phoenix Suns. Now this game receives the highest total yet at 205.5 against Houston Rockets which interestingly has 3 straight Over's. Followers of Houston Over's were in for a rude awakening when they racked up two plus 100 games to start the season than missed the 206 Over against Portland by 26 points. So players burned on that game isn't so hot to jump on this Over, however Houston is playing Over on the road in season's small sampling is enough to support the Lakers carrying the Over and this match will provide retooling of Lakers game total.

HOUSTON ROCKETS at LOS ANGELES LAKER
Game Total First Half Over 103 at -110(W)
Game Total Over 204.5 at -105(W)

NBA Wager Notes

Los Angeles Lakers on the Staple Center hard court against the visiting Suns and already have implemented the D'Antoni brand of run and gun style. The change is significant in form and this particular game should be a good indicator on how fast this Lakers team can rack points. Shooting clear past 30 points in 1st quarter and defense is really loose. Wouldn't you say this game sails Over 201.5? Suns holding ground and keeping pace, can they last at this pace? Back to back impact will also be greater too at this speed.

NBA Monday

3-2-1 800

Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers coming off a upset loss at home to the under manned Golden State Warrriors. Every Clippers starter fell below their average performance in that loss. Now here comes Clippers nemesis the Cleveland Cavaliers coming off a ATS win SU loss. That was a game Cavs recovered in the second half and I like teams coming off a ATS cover. However Cavs timing to L.A. is not good and Clippers look to take their past losses and upset loss frustrations out on this Cleveland team. Going with L.A. to bounce back at home.

L.A. CLIPPERS -10 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Saturday

2-2-1 -200

Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards
Last night's Celtics home loss to the defense minded Bucks still lacked what Boston is trying to will on their opponents. Which is to shut down their offense.  Boston did a pretty good job in the first half, but Milwaukee got their offense going in the second and they could of easily reached the century mark just dumb luck it held at 99 points. I feel the theme tonight will yet again try to improve their defense and the Wizards have a good chance falling to score tonight. Backing the Under in Boston's home road back to back.

BOSTON CELTICS at WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Game Total UNDER 191 at -107 for 1 unit(W)
Boston didn't cover ATS, but we dodge Pargo's 3 at the end to take this Under!

NBA Friday

1-2-1 -1,200

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
Boston failed to continue the NBA Champs opening game curse losing in Miami, SU & ATS, in very un-Celtic like defensive break down. Not since 2009 has Boston allowed 120 points to be scored. It's likely Milwaukee's scoring will come down to grinding pace today. The Bucks will clog the paint with Scott Skiles defensive scheme. Now with Samuel Dalembert and Joel Przybilla Milwaukee has six 6'10" plus players better suited for Skiles style of play than last season. This match up has produced extremely low scoring games at the TD Garden and nature of these two teams will hold true again.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS at BOSTON CELTICS
Game Total UNDER 196.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Thursday

1-2   -1.200

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
Not all that big on this game. The wagering consensus is on Thunder, but I wouldn't call it a public play it's more like 66%. I'm sure the Thunder does not want to disappoint any expectations and they'll be ready to battle the Spurs. Getting some points however small with contending OKC seems like the way to go for many, but short favorites are San Antonio specialty and current total rising from 201 to 204 also points to San Antonio at home. Just the Spurs being at home, under estimated, is good enough for me.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -2 at -105 for 1 unit(Push)

NBA Wednesday

1-0 +1,000

Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers
You know the Sixers looked pretty good in preseason games and I guess the line makers liked them too because this line started with 76ers being a slight home favorites before this line got reversed, now Denver is the slight favorite, making the sides a bit risky play. It's the match up fundamentals that's weighed in on this match up with Sixers lacking low post presence this will be a tall order at home. Taking Denver Moneyline and First Half Over 100 on this game.

DENVER NUGGETS -110 for 1 unit(L)

DENVER NUGGETS at PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
First Half Game Total OVER 100 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
Lousy day.

NBA Tuesday

Boston Celtic at Miami Heat
Miami Heat having their ring ceremony tonight and they also got Ray Allen from Boston Celtics. 
Don't count out Boston yet the aging team theory is not a strong angle to back here. Boston should be still  tough this season. Don't expect Miami to cover too many home games either, they didn't last season, but I do feel the big three for Miami will show up tonight and display their combined force. There is also an strong trend to Total going Over in Miami, but it's only game 1 so taking Miami ATS.

MIAMI HEAT -6.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Over also wins easily. 

1-0 +1.000 

NBA 2012-13

What's happening Players? NBA Season is upon us once again and we are gearing up for he hard court.
You know NBA is considered one of the toughest sports to cap and records will show the top winners in this sports does average a smaller take home compared to NCAA Basketball. Still there will be plenty of under valued games to be had. We have also rocked the NBA Totals season after season so stay tuned to the angles we'll be backing.

NBA Playoff Saturday

Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

Both of these teams leading to this point shows steadily declining TOTAL. It started for 76ers around 175 then 176 for the first two games against Chicago from there the remaining games to 172 then 170. Also similar for Boston and here we are tonight at 169.5  Taking this Total OVER in this low scoring match up.
Celtics and 76ers have tendencies to score OVER against a good defensive team.

76ERS at CELTICS OVER 169.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)


Told ya it's too low!

NBA Playoff Thursday

Feeling a bit on the hard court since my home town Lakers and Clippers are in the hunt.

Lakers at Nuggets (3-2)
Lakers coulda, shoulda, put that last game into OT, but 2 good looks and no cigar so we go to game 6 back to Pepsi Center. You know L.A. & Denver match up have been going UNDER, but line's been adjusting from the number just above 200's down to mid 190's.
Lakers 10-2 Over after a loss as a favorite.

L.A./DENVER OVER 197.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)


Yes sir! I also have Denver to win series at +500 which I will off load on Lakers for the lock!

NBA Tuesday

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
I like the way Suns are playing right now. They have slightly better record ATS then SU overall and at home the ATS and SU record is 14-11-1 & 15-10. Phoenix have impressive 8-2 ATS last 10 games and even went 3 for 3 on back to back to back games. All that and getting points at home. It was +2 now it's +1.5 which I don't think will deter any Suns backers, but I feel the line has moved in the wrong direction. Taking the Spurs on the road. On the first leg of the road trip seems to be a charm for the good old Spurs.

San Antonio Spurs -1.5

NBA Sunday

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers despite their offensive turn around are still one of the worst ATS team to back and I feel this still applies here with Lakers back at home and playoff in sight. Take the Grizzlies with points as this team returns to full strength.

Grizzlies +6.5(W)

NBA Friday

On this Friday's game I choose Phoenix at Indiana.

I think it's a good ATS match up, but the line is moving against Indiana which is of course favored at home. It's come down to -3.5 now. Despite Suns winning ways of last 10 games the consensus clearly likes the Pacers. Play against the grain as Suns surge combined with points as the Suns have a very good chance to take this straight up going away.

SUNS +3.5 (W)

NBA Friday

It's been over a month since my mother passed away. I've been off line for awhile and though March Madness fever is all around I feel very little luster these days. Her stuff still littered all around, I've been chipping away at it, there's so much to clean. In one of my moment of sigh I noticed Bucks playing at Golden State in tonight's late match up. I have a angle here.

Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors
What this game hold is a test of threshold, OVER threshold, which has been on a impressive run. Especially for the Bucks which I don't need to remind many of you was one of the top UNDER team from last year. Current run of OVER for the Bucks 28-14-1 one of the best in the league. Bring them to the Oracle Arena where the Warriors are exceeding their season average, offense and giving up points on defense, get yourselves another OVER type game. However this number has moved all over from 206 to 210 now 208.5 and this is a number to go UNDER. Look for the game to adjust after both teams played triple digit offense & defense respectively with match up showing high TOTAL relevant to each teams average total for this season.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 208.5(L)

NBA Monday Night

Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers
Low Total for this match up at 181.5, which is at it's lowest since opening at 183, does give expectation to high caliber team playing championship level defense. That and the strong UNDER trend both teams are racking up, but 2 UNDER's don't always add up to more UNDER. The value comes on the OVER at this level and it was already shaded UNDER at the Opening.

Dallas at Los Angeles OVER 181.5

NBA Monday

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia

The Total 189 looks like easily reachable number as recent Sixers games have sailed over the centry mark 3 out of last 4 and recent Bucks games have given up over 100 points in 3 out of last 4 so if Milwaukee cracks mid 80's game goes Over. This would be the common perception, but if the ATS theory holds true I feel the points will come at preimium and revert to low scoring game sinking this Total UNDER. The number has dropped to 187.5, but this game still goes UNDER.

Bucks at 76ers UNDER 187.5(W)

NBA Thursday

Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors
This game with plenty of UNDER implications gets a low number, 187.5, to raise few eyebrows for OVER play. But in this relatively young season Warriors required a OT to break the OVER at home the first of this season. Orlando comes to Oracle with 2 OVER's in a row also first of this season. Both teams coming off a OVER rarity and this game looks to return to narmality. This number is on the low end of trade coming to close and that is something you should be aware of before jumping in.

UNDER 187.5

NBA Thursday

Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings
Bucks will try to get a break once again as they catch the Kings on the 3rd game in 3 days sequence, as they did with Denver and ATS was about what line you got. Milwaukee has issues, but needs take advantage of schedule disparity. Bucks to cover.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS -2.5(L)

NBA Wednesday

Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic
Magic back at home after running out of gas in Palace at Auburn Hills losing the game SU by 11 point margin while pegged as -5 road favorite. At least they got a break and many are eyeing the big bounce back against the lowly Wizards. The problem is Orlando bounce back games after losing as a favorite and playing as a double digit favorite. Magic has dropped 8 out of 9 in this situation from last season.
Washington was much improved playing in Boston, keeping up most of the way, and covering ATS.
Look to be a opposing direction game.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS +13

NBA Tuesday

Portland Trailblazers at Oklahoma Thunder
Oklahoma dropped their first game this season at Dallas as a -2.5 road favorites, line actually moved -0.5 favoring Thunder before game time, still at 5-1, 30-11 home record and solid bounce back after a loss record from last season there will be plenty of takers for Oklahoma City. This Thunder team is one tough nut to crack, but I feel the schedule advantage should of narrowed the line closer to 3.5 as these two teams in most recent meetings have played it close to the average tune of 4 point differential in 4 meeting last season. Blazers games ATS is coming in very close so far this season. Portland is also coming off a loss at L.A. Clipper on New Year day late game, that ATS was very close in the end. Portland will catch OKC here on home, rest, away, home, 4 day 3 game schedule with 5 points, as of my writing, well rested road dog and Thunder has not been hitting ATS.
Taking the points with the visiting Blazers to keep this tight.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS +5(W)

NBA Monday

Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets
Nuggets take out the Lakers at home covering -5.5 with an strong finish, splitting the back to back road home with Lakers winning ATS, coming to their final leg of road, home, home, triple straight game. Denver is killing it ATS and Pepsi Center, one of the toughest in NBA, will not be easy for the Bucks even on this night. Although Milwaukee was dismal on the road season ago this team looks improved and poised to keep the Total Under.
Milwaukee shot Over 53% against Washington which will most likely come down and as the Lakers have already dampened the high scoring Denver offense for two games I like this game to go UNDER.

BUCKS/NUGGETS UNDER 200(W)

NBA on New Year Day

Dallas at Minnesota
This match up, despite the NBA champions playing the bottom of NBA Northwest, gets a small spread of -3 for the Mavs. In this young season both of these teams are at the bottom of their respective division, but -3 for the Champs will sure to have many takers. However this line is suspect. On the home court Timberwolves are well rested dangerous dogs and have covered all games ATS. Mavs have been on an grueling schedule starting back to back, Heat & Nuggets, and now alternating Road, Home, rest and Road sequence. Dallas managed to win and cover their last game at home against Toronto making them 1-3, but look at that game and see the shooting percentage, 3 point shooting, rebounding, points in the paint, fast break points, all the key stats, except for whopping 38 FT the Raptors gave away Mavs cashed in 28, did not excel over Toronto. In fact Mavs performance have not been impressive.
Minnesota are just the opposite and are keeping up with NBA elite teams. Wolves last game against the contending Heat was impressive, out shooting from 3 points, out boarding and getting to the FT line more then the Heat only to lose by a basket in closing 5 seconds. I look for hungry Minnesota Timberwolves eyeing for their first home victory to take it SU & Cover.

MINNESOTA +3(W)

NBA Tuesday

Back to the hard court. Starting the season with a loss is not good. Hopefully we catch up today.

Sacramento Kings at Portland Trailblazers
Kings coming off a win against the contending Lakers at home, home dog of +3.5 winning straight up, is on second of back to back playing the Blazers at the Rose Garden. There is a lack behind Blazers backers after Pushing the last game against Philadelphia and Kings winning against the Lakers, but the consideration here should be the Total which flexed a bit downwards but is back up to 197.5 and I will take the Under.

Portland defense should improve tonight and Kings back to back will help the situation.

UNDER 197.5 for 1 unit(W)

Caught the Total in perfect spot!

NBA on Christmas

NBA has returned and without getting into how we got here let's move right into the state of these games. When I say this, I mean the shaky start Lakers will take in their Xmas opener hosting the very dangerous Chicago Bulls. This is a cohesive team expected to go the distance. The current Laker's, Kobe hurt, no Lomar, Pau in dismay, the game will more than likely be won by Chicago Bull @ Staples Center.

This is a Bookies nightmare line where it originally opened in Lakers favor only to have Kobe's wrist injury swing the odds back to Chicago's favor exposing the books to risk on both sides of this game.


Chicago Bulls -3.5 points(L)

Back on Track 2011

Let's hope the deal stays on course. This delay season start will be interesting. But upcoming games will have rematch of Mavs & Heat and Lakers & Bulls should be a high scoring affair. There will be many games to exploit. Hope to have you back checking on "NBA Plays & Selection" for another Fantastic season!

OKC Thunder at Dallas Mavercks WC Finals #5

I shut the NBA blog back in Jan. due to lack of time, but I do like the game. I enjoy games played on daily basis. It's how you read the changes and spot fundamental angles. This game is elimination game for the Thunder and they are coming off a gut wrenching OT loss at home. Yet this line has widen not tighten so I will go with OKC getting too many points!

OKC +6.5(W)

NBA Monday

Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls
This is a losing team vs winning team match up, but the losing team, Pistons, have been playing very good ATS Basketball whereas the winning team, Bulls, have sandwiched two ATS losses between single win. Chicago's two most recent games against sub par teams at home giving up double digit points ATS? 12/31 and 1/01 Nets & Cavaliers both SU winners, both ATS losers. Chicago also visited Detroit 12/26, SU winner & ATS no cover loser, in a game that went into OT. Bulls are very suspect against weaker foes getting hefty points. There's a pattern right? The pattern is don't be short sighted. Last 10 game sampling goes against the big picture which is Detroit away 3-16 just above Cleveland in the East. The Bulls have dominated this match up for sometime and at home I expect the Bulls to take control.

CHICAGO BULLS -9.5(W)

NBA Friday

New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns
Welcome to the new era for the valley of the Suns. Landscape has much changed in Phoenix 2011, but going back through the past match ups Suns never had much over the Knicks. That holds true this season as well with Knicks one of the top ATS team going against 5-10-1 home ATS Phoenix Suns. Take the points on the road team Knicks.

New York Knicks +2(W)

NBA Monday

Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic

Orlando sure does look magical with new found blood and looking forward to 2011. They've strung 5 straight wins covering all as favorites. Hell, they beat the Spurs and Celtics handily. What a turn around from 4 straight losses and 2 for 8 during that span. Orlando is a contender expected to make the playoffs and rolled the dice in moving pieces, everyone know about the move, it's been made too much at this point and Golden State is an after thought. Warriors at 13-20 is dismal 5-14 on the road. However, Warriors 10-8-1 against the spread away and 50% proposition against winning teams away whereas Magic only 35% against losing teams. Golden State has 3 ATS losses in last 10 games only 1 loss was by more than one possession. Combined with Magics win margin dropping with every game since the start of this streak on Dec. 23 with 20 point ATS win against the Spurs to New York Knicks 1.5 point ATS squeaker on their last game 12/30 this one very much looks ripe for a ATS NO COVER at home for Orlando.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +10.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

Do not be alarmed. Published plays have failed 3 straight and it's sending back bad vibes. I'm not going to preach money management or advise something like Lakers ML laying the money. It doesn't work like that. The games fit certain criteria and wagers call for more specifics to come together. Many times the nature of the game is hiding in plain sight.

0-1 last play. 0-3 YTD

Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers

Here is a tight line where ATS & ML difference is 1 slight edge toward the visiting Nuggets playing second leg of back to back. Pacers have motivation as the last home loss was a game which Pacers held the lead going into the 4th quarter and losing by 2points. The game before that was a blow out loss at Philadelphia by 26 points which provided the wake up call. Can Pacers break out against the tired Nuggets? I'm going to say NO. Denver has played very well in the second leg so far this season and I expect the trend to stay it's course. Nuggets coming off a ATS Win (Push if you got +2) playing against poor offensive team with weaker scoring number at home this season.

DENVER -1 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

I have a rare second game with Detroit Pistons at Portland Trailblazers
Detroit looks like a team making progress and Blazer with Roy getting shut down in last game at Lakers. This line would seem just too big, but Blazer will redeem themselves at the Rose Garden where Pistons have done very little.

PORTLAND -10 at 103 for 2 units(W)

Stop loss at 0-4, but Nuggets pick sucked big time.
1-1 +1.03 units

NBA Sunday

0-1 last play 0-2 YTD -2.02 units

Moving to Staple Center in Los Angeles were the defending champions will take on the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Lakers are undefeated, deep and looking stronger than last season. However understanding the strength is to know the pit falls. Play against the Lakers coming off a double digit home favorite loss playing a division opponent with winning record.

PORTLAND +7.5 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

Got killed on this play. Blazers decided not to show up!

NBA Saturday

Toronto at Portland

Looking at this game in Portland, Rose Garden most will see Blazers redeeming their home loss to a opponent, Oklahoma. Who come into the Garden on a back to back night, after they were annihilated by the Lakers, and clawed back at the end to tie at regulation and snuffed out the Blazers in OT. That game was a SU loss as -5.5 home favorite and here is another team playing second leg of back to back. Again coming off a loss to the Lakers, though ATS cover, and getting big time numbers. If your first instinct was the Blazers, but hesitated with the spread it has moved down. Maybe it's got your attention? The number is still too big and it may swing back, but the take is on the Raptors second leg of back to back ATS. Blazers backers might have a better chance in the First Half, but see a back door cover. Take Raptors off a first leg ATS cover against a top contending team then playing a team with winning home record getting double digit points.

TORONTO RAPTORS +12 priced at -103 Matchbook.com(L)

Looked like it was on it's way, but close does not count!

Opening Day 2010

PHX at POR
Suns visit the Rose Garden and opens this season with one of the lowest opening Total I can recall. Point down grade is understandable, but Nash still see the court as well as anyone in this league. Suns and Blazers both can run the pick and roll with the best. Looking for this game to go Over today's total.

OVER 201(L)

NBA Monday

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets
Most NBA fans and handicappers have an underlining understanding of coach Popovich's guidance towards post season and their need to improve on this road trip. It will test the Spurs against the likes of Cleveland and Orlando, but for tonight it the Hornets. Interestingly Hornets are getting better line with Tim Duncan getting rested on second of back to back. This may not be that bad as shown by the line movement, it's the play on team without their leading player, but considering no cover ATS on the first game and allowed opponents +109 points there's enough to play against the Spurs on the road. Hornets are mediocre this season barely .500 ATS coming off a no cover loss at Dallas. Nothing to write home about with home games either, but they are the better back to back team. 21-11 ATS against winning teams, 8-4 in second half. There are issues with assists, fast break points and 4 straight road losses which all gives more for the public to like Spurs. Go against no cover team as a favorite on second of back to back. Take the points with the home team.

HORNETS +3

NBA Wednesday

Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Brewers.

Houston comes to Milwaukee on a back to back. Rockets fall against Jazz at home in the first leg. Sound loss after holding the Jazz 55 to 49 in the first half they were outscored 55-40 in the second. I see alternating schedule of road and home for Houston making the remaining February a tough ordeal for this team to endure. Bucks have been playing good defense lately getting a chance to notch closer to .500 at the expense of Rockets and this is a good chance. Bucks 19-4 ATS against poor defensive teams. 4-1 ATS as short home favorites. 2-0 after 3 or more days off.

BUCKS -5

NBA Thursday

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics.

The Bulls crushed Pistons at home 1/11 120-87 easily covering -5.5 and this was step up game after SU win & -8.5 cover over Minnesota, again at home, but 2 losses away also covered getting 4 points at Milwaukee and 6.5 points at Charlotte. Making the ATS 4 wins in a row, 8-1 ATS last 9 and Chicago Bulls stock are suddenly hot item.

Boston last faced Chicago 12/12 106-80 Celtics win & cover -9.5 in United Center.
Celtics went wire to wire did not give up any quarter while holding the Bulls to under 33% shooting from the field and miserable 1 for 9 beyond the arc.

Despite the fact of embarrassing loss, recent surging Bulls play and K. Garnette & B. Wallace missing from line up. Bulls are poised to break their winning streak and lose ATS. They are very poor revenge team at 1-5, against Atlantic division teams 1-7 and coming off a peak game. This is also a spot to avenge a rare home loss Celtics suffered last home game. 1/11 Atlanta was a turn around blow losing 2 to the Hawks in 3 days. It must of left a bad taste for the C's because they went to NJ and killed the Nets.

Boston are not a good home cover team 11-5 SU has only covered 6-10 and they are alternating high score win than a loss however Chicago upside is limited where as Boston is under estimated at home. Take Boston give the points.

BOSTON CELTICS -6.5

NBA Monday

Miami Heat at Utah Jazz

These two teams last met on December 23rd. Remember that game in Miami? It held some offensive promise, but the game unfolded in snails pace with decisive 3rd quarter by home team Miami ending in 70-80. That was the 5th and final road game for Jazz where D. Williams blamed the loss to their defensive laps. Whatever it was Miami took down Utah for the 4th time in a row.
Miami is the nemesis to Utah winning 11 out of 12 meets. Today Miami Heat are the road team and they have lost 5 out of last 7 games. The last game against Clippers at L.A. 94-84 loss Heat shot below 40% and could not recover from early deficit. Wade sat out the last 8 min. 21 sec. in a look-ahead move for second of back to back.

The Jazz men last played 1/09 @DAL where they caught the Mavs on second of back to back after the incredible rally at San Antonio. Jazz winning in Dallas 111-93 up to that point they were struggling with 4 losses out of 5 and forced to play Williams who was nursing a injured wrist. Jazz are tough at home 13-6 SU & 12-7 ATS and coming off high scoring games are 10-3.

I'm looking for higher production from Miami today and maybe Jazz score doesn't reach 111, but Miami has allowed +100 points in 4 out of last 6 games. Catching the declining Total and taking this Over.

OVER 194(W)

Sweet and Easy.

NBA Sunday

New Jersey Nets at San Antonio Spurs.

Nets got a ATS cover on the road at New Orleans. That game Nets got off to a usual slow start, but dropped in 27 points in last 3 quarters and kept it close enough to easily cover with 9.5 points exceeding their offensive average by 10 points. Considering road games points allowed, 1/06 @ATL 119 points, 12/18 @TOR 118 points, 12/13 @ATL 130 and so on counting from late November road games Nets allowing +99 points is 10 out of 11. Last game effort not seen since 12/15 @Cleveland and it was also their best offensive effort getting to 99 points. Nets have exceeded +99 points on the road 3 out of 15. So in New Jersey standard a very good game. Which to me spells regression at San Antonio. Spurs lose to Dallas at home in a game where Spurs held advantage for 3 quarters and than gave up 42 points to Dallas in the 4th, whopping 50 points allowed in the paint at home. What do you think will happen to the next team stepping into AT&T Center? Enter Nets getting 14 points. NJN 2-9 as dogs with +10 points, 6-11 ATS after a OVER win, 5-13 against teams above .500 and that's my take.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -13.5(L)

New Jersey cover by 1.5 points.

Late Game in the West.
Bucks at Lakers
Similar scenario as with Nets@Spurs. Lakers with 2 disappointing games and Bucks with Win no cover at home. That ATS loss comes in closing minutes as Bulls closed the gap. This game will take Sides and Total. Lakers playing cold, but defense is still active. The Total has risen all day and we will go against the inflated number. I see L.A. hungry for a big win. Can we cover this big number? Again the number tells me to look for Lakers to come back at Staples Center.

LAKERS -9.5(W)
UNDER 196(W)

L.O got the points, but watch out Koby's finger is definately bothering him and he is dead cold. Michael Redd buckled his knee making their road trip much tougher.

NBA Saturday

Minnesota Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls.

Bulls are giving -8.5 at home and that is a big number. Chicago on recent 6-1 ATS run made a huge rally to cover yesterday at Milwaukee making it 2 covers in a row away. Bulls stock maybe on the rise, but they are 6 games below .500 and of the 11 times they have been favored the record is 4-7, out of the 11 games they gave -6.5 or higher 4 times resulting in 1-3. Coming into 2nd leg of back to back Bulls are 1-6 making today's road dog a popular take. Minnesota 9-8 ATS away and 5-4 ATS back to back is not exactly a slam dunk. Even with the thought of Bulls giving too much I feel Grizzlies are coming off a peak game, 116-109 SU & ATS cover, similar to match 12/18 home win against Kings 112-96 where they promptly lost the following game at Boston getting 13.5 points. This ATS is holding steady and I'm fading Minnesota to buck the Chicago trend.

CHICAGO BULLS -8.5 at -103(W)

Right on money!

NBA Friday

Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors.

Expectation for high scoring shoot'em up game is high. But I look for expanding ATS to favor the visiting Kings who have disappointed in recent games. Kings loss margin with spread is very close and Warriors win margin has exceeded winning SU as a underdog allowing 2nd fewest points in past 10 games. Look for Kings to play strong in this spot.

SACRAMENTO KINGS +4.5(L)

What a blow! Kings had this in their grasp and let it get away.

NBA Tuesday

Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks
Mavs are one of those teams I advise as a over estimated team. They very much are a poor cover team that should be looked at carefully. On this day Dallas return from L.A. where they were schooled by the Lakers to face the woeful Pistons. Detroit where the long drought has failed to produce winning sign will receive one of the hefty spread on board tonight. +9 is a number you'll need to search through Dallas calender to see this margin win. Yet it'll be a public spot to back the Mavs and they may get this one. I'll take the early round on First Half.

DALLAS MAVERICKS FIRST HALF -5(L)

2nd Play:
Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings.

Kings have lost 3 in a row and Suns come to Arco with impressive record against the Kings. Suns 8-10 SU and .500 ATS is not a good bet on the road. They are giving up score to opponent at alarming rate and though they are winning against division foes they are failing to cover. Kings are very good 12-5 against poor defensive teams, 6-2 with 2 days rest and Total above 210 is 6-3. Kings are covering 3-1 at Arco and that's late night play.

SACRAMENTO KINGS +3(L)

NBA Monday

Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls. The Bulls are playing good ball with Rose leading the way. There's also some dominance by Bulls 5-1 over past 6 match ups. Bulls also on a roll 4 wins in a row and last game SU win against a top contender Orlando Magic. I think they disappoint against Thunder playing very competitive ball yet going under the radar. Not only are they above .500 they exceed with better ATS record. Thunder was rolling too with 5 wins in a row only to drop the OT game. I still see love for the Bulls and this game might be worth waiting on.

Oklahoma +2.5(W)

NBA Sunday

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks

Pacers comes to MSG as a +9.5 underdog playing double back to back with 2 days off in between. They have exceeded the century mark twice in a row, 12/30 losing to Memphis and 1/02 winning against Minnesota. Counting 6 games back Indiana defense has allowed +99 points climbing through 12/30 giving 121 points and on 1/02 dropped back 10 points, but scored 122 points. Combined occurance of defensive score allowed with 2 recent high scoring games have raised the Total, but scoring is likely to drop here. NYK went Over 2 games in a row after stringing 8 Unders and last game at Atlanta was regulation Under that went Over due to OT.
This game similar to my last pick trends Under for both teams away and home.

UNDER 208(L)

Knicks had too much fire power!

NBA Saturday

Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls.

Let's go to the United Center and get the hell out of the cold. I'm sure Bulls are feeling little cozy reeling off 3 wins in a row, but Orlando has dominated the Bulls to the tune of 8-1 going back to 2007. Magic on first set of double back to back coming off declining scoring looking for this one to stay low. Bulls also playing above their average scoring. Home and away O/U are also extremely Under. That's what I'll play.

UNDER 194(PUSH)

Hope you guys got 194 and not below.

NBA NEW YEARS EVE

Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets.

I was looking at Dallas games the two past games 12/26 & 12/27 to be specific. Two consecutive games where Mavs cracked the century scoring mark, first game Total exceeding +200 and second landing on 200, and thought about this one falling below 200. What do you know? This game Total sitting on 198.5~199 moving up from 197. Looking at Houston coming off a game scoring 108 and giving up 100 which is a rarity in regulation that's happened 3 times (scoring and allowing triple digits) in December. That's normally followed with drop in score. The last time these two teams met, 12/18 @Dallas 100-100 regulation 116-108 O.T. win and cover by Houston, was also an unlikely Over with 62 points scored in 4th quarter. So why would you not take UNDER 199? Because there's not enough room in Texas and divisional games are fought basket for basket. Mavs averaging 103 in this spot & giving up 100. Rockets are 102 offense and 105 defense making Over the play. There's movement swinging both ways so key in entry point you might consider breaking up position for cost averaging.

OVER 100 First Half (W)

NBA Wednesday

Charlotte Bobcats at Toronto Raptors.

The similarity shared by these two teams are the home court advantage and road disadvantage. Which in simplest term means Raps win at home. Here's where it get tricky. Raps 10-5 at home only failed to cover once, 12/8 giving up -7.5 to Minny and last home loss 12/11 to Atlanta going 6-1 in December at home, 5-2 ATS, pretty solid. Compared to Cats played six December road games perfect 0-6 giving Toronto enough to get the public nod making the Bobs somewhat of underestimated foes. Toronto also took a bad beat last time these two teams met in Charlotte so you think Raps will have payback in mind coming in with 4 wins in a row. But all those good thoughts are suspect. Raps revenging games are 8-11 ATS, against South East opponents 2-8 ATS and overall 50% in December games. Charlotte 11-3 ATS against sub .500 teams, 10-2 against teams allowing +99 points. Doesn't Charlotte have a chance to be the 3rd team to beat Raptors in December at home? Maybe maybe not, but I'll take the points and look for the Cats to keep it fairly close.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +6(W)

Cover baby!

NBA Tuesday

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers.

If you feel Lakers are a bit uninspired I can't blame you they failed to cover 3 out of last 4 and Phoenix wire to wire, did not lose any quarter. It wasn't Lakers scoring it was defense. So will they clamp it down against the Warriors? Golden State is on second leg of back to back beating the mighty Celtics and they have to be pumped for the Lakers. I think the Total will remain high and the number is retreating the wrong way.

OVER 217.5(W)

There was no doubt

NBA Sunday

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers.
Celtics are one of those teams with odds makers making good spread adjustments keeping them just below .500 ATS. That's a team with 23-5 record to 13-15 ATS ratio which means they've dropped 10 games giving points. Within the last 10 games played they failed to cover 4 and one was SU & ATS making them 50%.
Clippers are sub .500 team with ATS slightly worse. Spread is not helping and makes them a good fade candidate. Effort has been lacking in situational spots and Clips will face one of the best road team in NBA.
ATS has been widening and this game cones on heels of Boston beating Magic in Orlando by 9 points, 14.5 ATS, compared to Clippers loss by 31 points, 21 ATS, which is a good spot for Los Angeles. Let's look for climbing ATS to help the home team.

Clippers +8.5(W)

Didn't need no points

NBA Post Christmas Saturday

Sup everyone. Did the Christmas thing and now it's back to business.

Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz.
Good team bad team scenario again. What you want to watch in this spot is Sixers narrowing margin against ATS. Currently it's going more or less sideways. On Philly's winning games it comes off single possession difference margin of 2 or 3. That type of game has been followed by very good effort, that is not the case today. Jazz coming off a bad beat is ready to rock the rim. Let's go with Utah back in Salt Lake city.

UTAH JAZZ -7(W)

Keep on keeping on!

NBA Wednesday

Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings.
When looking at this match up most players know Cavs play well away and Kings play well at home. The other standout trend is Cavs play Over away and so does the Kings at home. So when comparing these two trends doesn't it make better sense to take the Over than choosing sides? Simplicity is sometimes bliss, but considering the Over, which is a pretty popular take, the number has climbed quite a bit since opening at 202. There should be a second take on this number which all indicator pointed to being too low. The schedule sequence makes this a tough spot to score with Cavs playing 3 sets of back to back in last 10 games, Kings played 4 sets. Cavs last game scoring 109 ties highest score in last 10 games which calls for a drop down spot in score. Kings last game scoring 102 is on the high side for away game and may not translate to lower scoring at home, but Cavs holding opposition to 93 or so is good enough to buck the rising number.

UNDER 204.5 at -103

Shot myself thinking too much

NBA Saturday

Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers.
This is the tale of 2 under performing teams with L.A. holding the better record. As with losing teams they try to float above water at home and struggle on the road. Clippers are playing better of late SU, but ATS is fairly close. Schedule is also similar with both teams coming in on 3 games in 4 days on back end of back to back. So you look closer to the first game of back to back where Clippers came out hot against the Knicks in MSG than faded away in the second half. 76ers trailed the Celtics and came back in the 2nd half. You take the 2nd half winner 76ers at home on a short line.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -2.5(L)

Damn! Had 2nd half momentum and could not close the deal. OT on home court? Come on Sixers you break my heart.

NBA Thursday

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat.

Hope everyone is doing well. This game will feature a contender from South East, Orlando Magic (19-6) deadly away as home makes no difference. Magic strung 5 game winning streak and 6 game winning streak, currently on 2 wins in a row, making this stretch 13-3 since Nov. 13th. Coming off a dominant game win against Raptors at home Magic goes for 7 wins out of 8 trips to Miami. This has to be a tall order for Miami Heat. They did win last game at home against Raptors, but they are 4 losses out of last 5 home games. Heat also beat Magic in last match, but Magic are good revenge team and good back to back team. Yet I am incline to take Miami Heat at home. ATS 15-10 is good money making record, but not as threatening as 19-6 and this sequence bring Magic to 3 games in 4 days. Orlando Magic is no doubt the public play and offshore has been holding that line, but starting to inflate.

MIAMI HEAT +4.5(W)

News flash! Miami Heat blows out Orlando Magic! Who could of guess it?!

NBA Wednesday

Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks.
Koby and Lakers impressing you? World Champs going for repeat? Maybe. They right the ship taking out the weak Bulls in Chicago. Yeah, but they didn't cover. It's a simple plan I'm going against them on the road. Lakers on double set of back to backs coming up tonight on second leg of second set. Bucks at home 8-4 ATS and they are on a mini roll. Lakers away 1-5 ATS on 3 game straight no cover. Just rolling with it.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS +6(W)

Good game Koby, but Bucks take the money!

NBA Tuesday

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
Tonight's gonna be a good night and both of these teams should be ready for a game after their tough schedule sequence. Suns did a double back to back with 2 days between, but first sequence was 3 games in 4 days which they promptly lost the first sequence of back to back and though rested for Sacramento they were killed by L.A. in the second of back to back.
Dallas coming off 3 games in 4 days sequence also lost the back to back. On their second game Mavs only attempted 67 shots and out done in the paint 34 to 10.
Now it's the bounce back game and the Total is seemingly high. BookMaker opened at 215.5 dropped a point, where many lines hold, and shaved another 0.5 to 214. I do admit the opening total I expected was 213 and was surprised by the high number, but plus minus 2 points is still in range. The total is dropping and priced UNDER, but this number is still 2nd highest seen in Dallas games and Mavericks going UNDER on all games this season above 203.5 maybe makes you uneasy or Phoenix last OVER game was 7 games ago makes you nervous. It's the perception shared by the wagering public, but both good teams coming off such dismal scoring and had time to soak it in come meet in this match up.

OVER 214(L)

That was a loser, but I will return.

NBA Sunday

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers.
Here comes the Suns after a on road back to back loss they are back on track taking out Sacramento shooting 115 points. Back on track ready to hand Lakers their 4th loss if not their 11th ATS loss. Phoenix getting 9.5 their second most points received 15-5 team on a revenge spot has to be intriguing. Offense is back scoring triple digits and Lakers looked like they were slipping against Miami. Would this be a good spot even on a back to back? Favorite with double digit spread no cover on second sequence giving up double digits should be faded, true, but when looking at Lakers SU win at home on a circus shot by Koby I consider that a loss and Suns are not a good back to back team or a revenge play team. Books have also kept this just below the double digit number handing a 9.5 which has been holding.
I take the refocused Lakers. In the paint baby.

LAKERS -9.5 at +108 for 1 unit(W)

Too much Lakers for Suns on back to back

NBA Friday

Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz
Jazz men last played on 11/30 scoring 120 and holding Memphis to 93 points. It was one of their best shooting game at 58%, but they also shot 60% before that and nearly 61% before that. The last 3 games have really inflated their FG% and the Total. Jazz shoot well I agree and their Over is 7 out of last 10, but rising score has peaked. Narrowing spread indicating opening number to be inflated by smart money. Pacers offense should yield below 100 today in Salt Lake city the concern should be points allowed which has exceeded 100 points 8 out of last 10, out of the 8 it has hit above 109 five times, but I think below 109 is more likely according to ATS movement. Go against the rising number.

UNDER 210.5(W)

NBA Thursday

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors.
242, 233, 227, 222, 214, 212, 204, this is the sequence of Warriors last 7 games coming to a peak. Last indicator noted on 11/14 @MIL 264 before dropping down 2 games in a row. The Warriors have been on Over trend 7 out of last 10 and this match up with Houston has track record for going Over. However this game calls for Under. 187, 191, 176, 239, 219, 208, 181, 216, 192, 209 Rockets last 10 game totals are classic hi-low sequence coming up on hi game, but considering the differential between games and this match following a peak total by Warriors will not make 221. This one looks to top out below 218.

UNDER 221 -110 for 1 unit(W)

So I missed the Total by 2 points. Good thing I had a 3 point cushion.
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Sunday

Minnesota Timber wolves at Denver Nuggets
Everyone knows this is a bottom team against elite team match that opened at -16 for home team. Needless to say expected blow out. But you should be aware of dropping line and not so impressive Denver ATS. This match up also comes up on interesting sequence of Nuggets SU win NO COVER against NYK at home. Fading double digit favorite after a No Cover is not a bad idea. Wolves last game was a double digit blow out loss against PHO which should be a motivation on this game. Big loss at POR back in 11/11 inspired following game at DAL, ATS loss by only -1.5 and 11/21 loss followed by ATS COVER at LAC.
How about a Minnesota back door COVER.

TIMBER WOLVES +14.5(W)

No back door. How about a SU win going away. Yeah, I'm a bad man.

NBA Wednesday

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers.
This match up regardless of home court has trended UNDER for a long time. Some might consider it nature of this match up. However the odds makers have raised the bar to 183.5 a number not seen between these two teams since 190 high mark on 11/19/2008 that's 7 match ups ago. New era basketball and I'm going to buck this trend today. The low end Total below 190's are going OVER and Cavs have scored 100+ 4 out of last 5 road games. Detroit very capable of putting up 90's and I'll take the OVER.

OVER 184(W)

The UNDER nature is still there, but not this low.

NBA Saturday

Points will cost premium.
My theme tonight for Detroit at Washington. Needless to say Saunder's first match up against Detroit since being let go will play a role. However the "Insiders" knowledge will not stand against the loss of 3 point guards. arenas playing with calf injury and Randy Foye sprained right ankle will be a game time decision. Detroit was able to dominate the Bobcats in last game, but considering the changes in these teams I'm not sure if Pistons will show their cohesiveness on the road. The nature of this game going Over in Washington has changed and you should not be deterred by the low number. My pick here is the Under 186.

UNDER 186 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Thursday

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers.
Wolrd Champion Lakers will take on the hot streaking Suns. I'm not sure if Suns will keep it on overdrive, but getting 8 points will get some backers. But 8 points have some meaning behind it like 7 games in 10 days or 4 in 5. That means too much Lakers at Staples Center

LAKEERS -8 at -104 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00

NBA Monday

Minnesota T-Wolves at Golden State Warriors.
Keep in mind Wolves and Warriors coming off double digit losing margin. Minnesota's second game giving up triple-teens plus this season. Warriors has not held any opponents below 100 and last game in Sacramento giving up 120 in regulation. That was the second most this season.
Assertion here is defensive number to improve and the rising total to be too lofty.

MIN/GSW UNDER 215 at -109 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.09 units

NBA Thursday

Spurs at Jazz. There's a sinking feeling in Salt Lake City and the wagering public can feel it. You know the play on San Antonio and Jazz has narrowed and in this situation you take the slumping home team.

UTAH JAZZ +1(W)

Finally a slam dunk!

NBA Tuesday

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks.
This is a interesting match up with Dallas returning home after the stint with the two teams in L.A. Winning both and brimming with confidence. Meanwhile Jazz upset at home against the new look Houston. Also dropped the opener at Denver with the lone win coming against the Clipper. Although Mavs giving -6.5 points seems well in range for Mavs coming to form, but Jazz at this point is very dangerous. The blow from Houston at home is equal to a wake up call. My take is the Jazz to cover in Dallas.

UTAH JAZZ +6.5(L)

Late game Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trailblazers.
Seemingly low total looks awfully suspicious, but Hawks poised to put up score which will likely be matched by the home Blazers. That looks Over to me.

ATL/POR OVER 192(L)

Off to a bad start. It'll turn around.