NBA Sunday

Houston Rockets at Portland Trailblazers
These two teams have matched very well as 2 games in this series have gone to OT, three if you count the last game of regular season, and they have matched up Over.  The Over tendencies are so strong regardless of home court. The posted Total opened at high 217 and declined from there. The shaded Total corrected to adjusted 214, this is a fair number. Portland is Over 14-5 after 3 or more consecutive Over's, 16-5 against SouthWest and  28-12 in revenge situation. Houston is Over 16-5 against NorthWest, 10-3 in April games and stronger 24-17 away from Toyota Center than at home. Riding the reduced number Over.

HOUSTON ROCKETS at PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 214 at 105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

NBA posts have tanked! It's worst run of crappy games to date and we're going to try to salvage it.
Portland Trailblazers at Houston Rockets
The Blazers have been road warriors, but this line has remained steady and likely a close finish. At -5.5 for Houston that's going to be better than 2 possession. Portland are better ATS team on the road making +5.5 with Blazers rolling seem a good proposition, but the line likes Houston at home. The Rockets have matched well in recent games. Well lay the favorite at home.

HOUSTON ROCKETS -5.5 at -108 for 1 unit

NBA Saturday

We're going to get back on the hard court in Oklahoma City.

Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma Thunder
Looking at this match 190 Total at OKC is the second lowest total for Thunder this season. You know who posted the lowest? Memphis Grizzlies on Feb. 3rd Under 186 when OKC won 86-77, but number in 190's have faired better going Over .

Game Over 190 -108 for 1 unit(L)

MLB Wednesday

Back to the Diamonds.

Chicago Cubs at New York Yankees
It's the second half of double header. We'll speculate a split here.

CHICAGO CUBS +145 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Monday

Well it's a dog day Monday.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors
This is the second leg of back to back games for both teams. Both teams coming off losses, but the Warriors covered, and Golden State coming into 2nd leg of back to back of double back to back 4th game in 5 days. The Timberwolves are zig zagging since April 5th, coming off a tough loss in need of win, and they are catching the Warriors with low fuel. We'll take the points and the Wolves.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES +7.5 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Sunday

Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings
It's reverse line movement and it's a late one. Regardless of the angle on sides this one we look to the Total as it's hit a high note. The trend is Under and the 2 point jump is not the right correction. Going against the grain. Going Under

GAME TOTAL UNDER 207.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)
Must of pissed off the Basketball gods or something? Useless 3 at the end of this game! WTF?

NBA Saturday

Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets
Going with the hot home ATS team in Denver Nuggets. We're laying the points tonight.

DENVER NUGGETS -9.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Friday

Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers
We have a high total tonight at Staples Center and it is the determined Dallas team making the late season push. With the Big German leading the charge knocking out the Clippers in last nights game the Mavericks will take floor on the same court.  Dallas trending Over at 43-33 this season, at 210 or more 15-9, after exceeding +105 points 26-19 and against poor defensive teams in second half 14-7. The Lakers are Over 36-25 as a Underdog, 22-17 revenging a loss, 28-20 against poor defensive teams 14-8 in second half.
Baskets baby!

DALLAS at LOS ANGELES GAME OVER 223.5 at -108 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Saturday

L.A. CLIPPERS at HOUSTON ROCKETS
The Clips are rolling, but if I was to go against them I do it on the road taking on another determined contender.

ROCKETS -1 at -108 at 1 unit(L)

NBA Wednesday

Portland at Orlando
We've seen this spot before. The Blazers on a back to back night coming off a loss and cover against Miami. Orlando has been very good this season as a small home dog, but that trend is fading. The Magic against winning teams ATS have gone cold at 4-7 in second half and 1-6 going Under three times or more. The Blazers ATS 11-6 back to back, 22-13 against losing teams, 5-3 against Southeast foes and coming off a cover win. Lay it.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS -6 at -108 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks
Another situational spot we are following.

TORONTO RAPTORS -0.5 FIRST QUARTER for 1 unit(W)

NBA Friday

Washington Wizard at Orlando Magic
We have a situational spot for Washington.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS FIRST QUARTER -1.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Tuesday

BOSTON at INDIANA
We are backing the Pacers to take the first half with aggression.

INDIANA PACERS -7 FIRST HALF at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Tuesday

It's pay day Tuesday.

Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers
The Warriors are on midst of their 6 games 9 days road trip. Golden State are one of the 13 teams in the league to sport a winning record on the road and among those teams they are ranked 8th. Also good in revenge spot 7-2 ATS, but they do sputter after 3 road games. Tonight we'll look at the fundamental side to this game. Indiana after 3 no cover wins this team is ripe to make a statement. The Pacers will not be second billing to Miami. 3-1 ATS as short favorites, 6-3 against Pacific and the Pacers have owned this series.

INDIANA PACERS -5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)
INDIANA PACERS -2.5 at -115 for 1 unitL)

NBA Friday

It's a bit busier than usual. Got some Olympic interests and keeping my eyes on Spring Training camp. MLB is right around the corner.  All's good.

New Orleans at Charlotte
The Cats are 5 out of 6 ATS and coming off 116-98 high scoring win against Detroit. That's two home games scoring 114 and 116 beating opponents by double digit margin. Does not look good for New Orleans 2 out of last 5, but 1-4-1 ATS. Well if you like the Cats the spread is in your favor it's come down from the opening, but Pelicans 8-2 in last 10 match ups and pretty tough 5-1 ATS after a ATS loss. We will back the Under here as the number has edged up a bit, Charlotte coming off a high scoring game and they are UNDER 11-4 in this spot.

NEW ORLEANS PELICANS at CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
GAME TOTAL UNDER 192 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Thursday

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
The line has reversed on this game, but I don't think the differential is going to make a difference. The Warriors 7-18 after ATS win, 0-7 after SU win.

HOUSTON ROCKETS -1.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)
Should of ended in regulation winner, but Curry had to tie it with 6 seconds left.

NBA Wednesday

Portland Trailblazers at Los Angeles Clippers
Just about game time. I think the Clippers stock has risen a little too high. That last game crushing Philadelphia combined with return of CP3 has pushed the L.A. outlook. Looking for a drawback to reality. Portland has come down a bit, but the team has not changed. Taking the points and small piece of money line.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS +9.5 at -108 for 1 unit(W)
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS ML +420(L)

PORTLAND FIRST HALF +5.5 at-115(W)
PORTLAND FIRST QUARTER +3 at -105(W)

NBA Tuesday

Sacramento Kings at Cleveland Cavaliers
We have two losing teams going at it tonight and the Total is holding above 204. It's been as high as 205.5, but bad teams getting high score is not a good idea. Kings O/U 0-4-2 last 6 road games. 0-5-1 following SU loss. Cleveland O/U 1-9 at home, 1-7 against road losing teams. Last 5 meetings have gone Under. We even have Under bias Curtis Blair reffing the floor.

KINGS at CAVALIERS UNDER 205 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Wednesday

Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics
Toronto is an ATS beast right now and have 4 double digit cover out of 10 straight ATS cover. Boston have historically schooled Toronto, but don't let that record fool you tonight. The line has moved to Toronto -4 as the road favorite. Take the Raptors across the board on 1st Quarter, 1st Half and Full Game.

TORONTO FIRST QUARTER  -0.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
TORONTO FIRST HALF -1.5 at -115 for 1 unit(L)
TORONTO -4 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers
We have Sacramento on offensive surge with last two games improving their defensive side. As the hot Kings travel to Indiana with two of last games scoring over 120 points and only failing to score in triple digits once the posted total at 196 should give some indication to the defensive nature of this match up. The games between these two teams are trending Over, but the baskets will come at a premium tonight. Backing the Under.

SACRAMENTO KINGS at INDIANA PACERS
GAME TOTAL UNDER 196 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Friday

Had excellent line, so I thought, in the last game Over loser.

Rockets at Pacers
Following strong ref trend and siding with Houston.

HOUSTON ROCKETS +6 at -108 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

 7-5  1,660

Oklahoma at Denver
Denver has gone 4 games in a row Under. Now 7-3 Under and all three Over's happened on the road. Oklahoma also coming off a Under game and although the offense has been solid the Over has been close to half and half proposition. Tonight's number has been holding steady with a hook and this one looks to edge Over. Denver has been very good home dog and still looks to continue that trend, but more so is the Over with Denver as a dog 39-20 edge at mile high for past 3 seasons. Looks good tonight.

OKLAHOMA at DENVER
GAME TOTAL OVER 206.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Monday

 6-5  660

Washington Wizards at NY Knicks
Might expand on this pick, but the short of it is we are fading the Knicks.

WASHINGTON +2 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Monday

 5-5 -340 

Portland Trailblazers at Utah Jazz
Moving on to Salt Lake where the Jazz men are mired in 3-8 home slump. Formerly known as the Delta Center now called Energy Solutions Arena is historically one of the toughest home court advantage owned by any NBA team at 402-115. That edge is quickly melting this season. Red hot Trailblazers will come to this match as -7 point road favorites and we will lay the points tonight. Portland 8-2 ATS away from the Rose Garden, 10-0 against losing teams.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS -7 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

5-5 680 

Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers
Koby is back for L.A. and Lakers money is pushing this line. I understand the disruption, but this Total O/U movement has been dropping erraticly since the open and finally took a bounce at 202. The initial Total of 205 at the open was bit high as the range from the average for these teams is between 198.5 and 201.5 However the movement was fueled by Koby's return also had the books adjusting the Total and this is an likely situation where books are not comfortable. Both of these teams are trending Over and Total of more than 200 points are cashing Over at 9-6 for the Lakers and 4-0 for the Raptors. The Lakers young players are adapting to D'Antoni's gunning style and these two teams are Over 10-1 in Los Angeles. Don't get distracted here.

TORONTO RAPTORS at LOS ANGELES LAKERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 203 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Saturday

4-5 -320

Charlotte Bobcats at Milwaukee Bucks
Follow the money my friends. The Bobcats are covering the spread and they are covering on the road. Facing a weak home team in Milwaukee Bucks, 1-4 ATS at home, coming off a OT loss. A game Bucks should of covered in regulation. Road home back to back will  not serve this Bucks team any home edge.Wrong team getting points and our money goes to Charlotte moneyline and ATS

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +2.5 at -102 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

4-4 780

Portland Trailblazers at Toronto Raptors
Despite Portland's winning ways the Raptors will be one possession favorites.  The wagering public like the idea of getting points with the Trailblazers playing well on the road, but Toronto off it's worst scoring game and a blow out loss to Chicago should be motivated to host a surging team. Portland crushed the spread and this is a likely spot for decline.

TORONTO RAPTORS -2 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Saturday

Record: 3-3  + 800

Miami at Charlotte
The Bobcats are coming off a road win, not just one but, two consecutive road wins. Charlotte beat Boston and Cleveland making 3 consecutive road wins. 4 wins out of last 6 coming into this match at home against Miami Heat. The Heat are rolling as well winning 5 out of last 6. The offense is packing some punch scoring triple digits in 9 out of last 10 games. The Total here has been coming down and we do like the score to go over. Miami defense has allowed triple digits in Philadelphia and Brooklyn. The last three road games have gone Over. Charlotte has been playing low scoring games, but their scoring does improve at home. Looking for another triple digit score from Miami and into the mid 90's for Charlotte.

MIAMI HEAT at CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
GAME TOTAL OVER 193 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

Brooklyn at Los Angeles
Backing the Total to go Over on this game. Clippers 6-1 Over as favorites and perfect Over at home. Brooklyn trending Over against winning teams, in non conference games and likely spot to give up triple digits.

BROOKLYN NETS at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 202 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Friday

Record: 2-3   -200

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
Two teams avoiding their down grade will meet at the Staples Center tonight. Lakers are back from Denver losing that game 99-111, no cover, on their second leg of back to back. Memphis is coming off a blow out game at home against Toronto 88-103, dropping that game as a -6 point favorite. Public is on the Lakers tonight as a small home dog, but that line is holding steady. We're going to back the Under in this party as the Grizz following a blow out game giving away triple digit has been very Under minded. The Lakers coming off a game just failing to score 100 points is also good for another under 100 points scoring night.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES at L.A. LAKERS
GAME TOTAL UNDER 198 at-105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Saturday

Record: 1-2   -170

Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
The Warriors continue the early season as heavy favorites at home. Sacramento Kings are looking to grow as a good ATS team this season. They are getting double digit points after the Lakers debacle at the Oracle raising the bar for Golden State Warriors. The line did open -9.5, but grew to 11, some places 11.5, and this is going to be a tall order for the Warriors to cover this number. Sacramento Kings have matched well and looks well advantaged in the paint. Backing the road dog.

SACRAMENTO KINGS +11.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

SACRAMENTO at GOLDEN STATE OVER 207.5 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Wednesday

Record: 1-1   -70

L.A. Lakers at Golden State Warriors
I'd imagine Lakers will be sizable under dogs tonight, but last night's beating of Clippers at Staples didn't do much to move the line. It's seen as a fluke and the Vegas money has brushed it off in this early season game. Golden State comes in high expectation, like the Clippers, with potent offense. This is the Warriors opening at the Oracle arena and they would like to get this party right catching the Lakers on back to back. However Lakers rested much of their starters and rotated players well. Plus getting +12 points is pretty fat. Look for the Lakers to make it interesting.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS +12 at 100 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers
It was lights out scoring to begin that last game. May seem unusual, but Miami plays great offense against defense minded teams, going Over in those match ups 6-0, and against winning teams in general are Over 16-8. Indiana has also played to the Over. In play offs 10-5  and after double digit loss are 11-7.
It may not go 210 like the last game, but 184.5 is in reach.

MIAMI HEAT at INDIANA PACERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 184.5 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

L.A. Lakers at L.A. Clippers Second Half
Lakers minus their star Koby is playing very well at Staples. They are getting 9.5 points for the game and second half is still very much in line Lakers +5.5 with Lakers leading 57-55 the books are looking for Clippers to win by 4 points or better. The game spread will need Lakers melt down, but second half looks for another tight match up. Looking for another cover which will make Lakers covering first quarter, second quarter and first half.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS +5.5 SECOND HALF at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Opening 2013-2014

Hey Everybody, let's get ready for some hard court. We will asses the games as we go and don't take too much into preseason talking heads. Chicago with Rose returning has high expectations, but we need to see how they perform and Bulls are likely to improve as the season progresses. L.A. expectations for this season is done and out, but this season the Lakers might be good ATS team. It looks like a team able to hang around and get those back door cover.  It will play out and we will see. The opening game we'll back tonight is... Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers game Total OVER 188
This number has been climbing since the opening. Indiana scoring looks to increase at home this season and Orlando capable of pacing.

ORLANDO MAGIC at INDIANA PACER OVER 188 at -107 for 1 unit(L)
Indiana 97-87 Under 188 and No Cover -11.5 or -12

Let's see how improved the Clippers are. First Half to Clippers advantage.
L.A. CLIPPERS -5.5 at -110 for 1 unit

NBA Sunday

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers
You know these teams have played the Total OVER 3 games in a row now, the two games in Miami and last New York game for Indiana and Chicago for the Heat.  The trend following these three Over's and Miami off a upset home loss has been better than 80% for the season. What is the trend? Miami money line and game under and under 1st half.  Let's go get it.

MIAMI Money Line -130 for 1 unit(W)

MIAMI at INDIANA GAME TOTAL UNDER 182 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

MIAMI at INDIANA GAME TOTAL FIRST HALF UNDER 91 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Wednesday

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat
Tough game here. You know these two teams are at it again in the play offs and Miami got a cake walk against depleted Chicago Bulls to advance. In this opener for round two 8 points seems large against rested Pacers, but the home team has covered in the past. This season Miami's winning at home, but not covering as well. I'll take the points and advantage on the glass. Le Bron has lit up the Pacers before, but Indiana will be physical tonight with defense taking the forefront. If James is going to get hot it'll come in the latter half.

INDIANA PACERS +8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

INDIANA PACERS at MIAMI HEAT GAME TOTAL
FIRST HALF UNDER 90.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are in a pinch. Coming off a gutsy performance against Golden State losing Koby in that game. Can they will this game against the mighty Spurs? Lakers hold their own destiny. The Spurs will return Tony Parker, but no Diaw or Ginobilli and Stephen Jackson was waived on Friday.  On this match up our angle will look for Lakers to step up without their superstar.  Lakers have matched up well against San Antonio this season with two games finishing very close, within 2 and 3.  The Lakers 7 wins out of last 10.  Spurs lost 4 in a row ATS and have not covered the spread 8 out of last 10.  also dropped last 4 road games, all 4 of those teams had home winning record.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS +2 First Half at -110 for 1 unit(W)
43-43 tie at the Half

Lakers playing tough and the 2nd Half line is Lakers +2.5 Strap your seat belts it's coming down to the wire.  Lakers big men are playing with intensity and the score is starting to grind. Take the Lakers to win this on SU, take the points too.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS ML +135 for 1 unit(W)
LOS ANGELES LAKERS +2.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Another close one 91-88 Lakers ! Spurs lose on the road.

NBA Friday

Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors
The Bulls stop the streaking NY Knicks winning streak. That's two impressive stop against Miami and Knicks, both teams were steam rolling opponents before facing the Bulls.  However Chicago is not exactly an surging team at 3-2 in last 5 and 6-4 in last 10. The Bulls are coming off a OT win against NY at home playing the second leg of home & road back to back making this a tough spot. Toronto sub .500 team, but better ATS team than Chicago and plays much better at home.  The Raptors just beat Chicago SU as a +3.5 Underdog and they will be receiving points here again. The situation seems to point toward Chicago let down, but this late in season Toronto's motivation is fading. I wouldn't say Toronto's going to "mail it in", but the Bulls may "will" this game despite the draining OT against the Knicks. NY on revenge games are not that good at 11-17, but as a short road underdog they are 6-3 and winning against Atlantic division teams 12-5 with good road ATS record of 22-15.  Toronto 10-13 as favorites, 2-8 with two days rest, 14-20 against winning teams. 6-12 against winning teams in second half. Home games against above ,500 teams have disappointed.

CHICAGO BULLS +2.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Wednesday

Got a big match up tonight.

San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
The Spurs come to the mile high city as a 3 point underdog and why not? San Antonio is not firing on all cylinders. The Spurs are 2-3 in last 5 games and on the road,  they have dropped 4 straight. Denver at home is at it's best and they are taking out contending teams. Denver, 12-4 ATS  against Southwest division, 14-5 against winning teams in second half, 18-7 against good offensive teams and that gets better to 9-2 in second half against good offensive teams. The Spurs on the other hand are terrible against good offensive teams logging 8-17 against high octane teams. Against Northwest division rivals 6-9. They are not covering overall in second half at 12-17. Taking Denver laying the points.

DENVER NUGGETS -3 at -103 for 1 unit(W)
86-96 Denver wins!

NBA Tuesday

Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls
We have a very Under looking match up, but I think I gave this angle while back. Both teams strung series of Under's and in their last game scoring 85 points or less. This game goes Over and the match up trends Over.
The number is a low 185 and short handed Bulls are missing some defensive pieces. Back the Over

TORONTO RAPTORS at CHICAGO BULLS
Game Total OVER 185 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Got taken yesterday on a non-NBA game, but we're right back at ya!

NCAA National Championship

There are no games scheduled in the NBA, but we do have the title game coming up and that's where our focus will be. Let's head out to Atlanta, GA. to the Georgia dome.  It's Michigan Wolverines 31-7 against Louisville Cardinals 34-5 for all the marbles.  This match up with No#1 Louisville Cardinals expected to take this game by 4 points and the final total to land around 138 points so the division is Cardinals 73 Wolverines 65.  If you go back 10 games for Louisville the Cards have exceeded 73 in  7 out 10 and gone Over 9 out of 10. The Wolverines have exceeded 65 points in 8 out of last 10, but their games are O/U 5-5 and only twice have their opponents score over 73 points. What we see here is Michigan output increase and Louisville decline which is likely, but what most will see is the production from both teams playing under the average. From the average perspective the Total is low and it has been driven up by 2 points, holding steady at 138, still making it Over bias. However our projection is closer to 136 Under bias something like 67-69 Louisville SU Michigan +4 cover and game Total Under.  The play we like is Under with the number getting pushed up. Backing the Under in this Over bias game.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES vs LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
Game Total UNDER 138.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Thursday

Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets
Dallas needs this game, but it's taking place at Pepsi Center in mile high city. Can the Mavs hang? Last time they visited, last year on March 19th, Dallas stole one here as a +4.5 dog won it outright 95-112, but not the same teams here tonight. Dallas was desperate when they were in L.A. and got steam rolled. Underdog spot of 22-16, after a loss of 10 points or more 10-6, against poor defense team 9-3 looks all good for Dallas. However Denver home trend is much stronger 25-11, 6-1 with current Total, 11-3 against Southwest opponents,  17-7 after a win by 10 points or more,  17-7 against poor defensive teams and 10-5 on back to backs. Going with Denver laying the points.

DENVER NUGGETS -7 at -101 for 1 unit(L)
94-95 Denver no cover.

NBA Tuesday

39-28  10,100

Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards
OK this is no news, the players know it and the books know it, this match up trends Under like no other game. Chicago has been scoring points in recent games, but it's gradually declining, 9 points in 4 games all Over's, looks ripe to fall Under. The Wiz coming off a 109-92 win and Over, a triple digit scoring Over, also a isolated Over which is Washington prerequisite to tonight's Under. Chicago O/U against Southeast opponents 3-10. Washington O/U against Central opponents 2-12,  after a win with 10 points or more 2-9, after triple digit scoring  3-11.  All games between these two teams for the past 3 seasons have gone Under.
I know it's a bit obvious, but better to go with the flow. We also have 2 Under Refs out of 3, Sean Corbin O/U 22-30 with Total between 185-194.5 O/U 6-13 and Joe Crawford O/U 22-32 with Total between 185-194.5 O/U 7-15.  Backing the Under.

CHICAGO BULLS at WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Game Total UNDER 186 at -103 for 1 unit(W)
This line got pushed up to 187.5 and all that money pushing it got burned.

NBA Monday

38-28  9,100

Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Clippers
Got a good match tonight Indy 47-27 visiting the Clippers 49-25.  The Pacers getting good spread at +5.5 to +6, but Indiana as a dog has not been good, 11-15, except when they get this many points, 6-3. The Pacers does come to Staples winning 4 in a row. On the other side the home team Clippers have dropped two in a row and 3 out of last 4.  I do like Indiana, but like the OVER better.  Pacers offense has been clicking on the road and the Clippers are in a spot to increase their output.  The Clippers are O/U 12-5 after a upset loss, 7-4 after a double digit loss, 4-0 as a home favorite 3.5 to 6 points and 3-1 after scoring under 85 points. Indiana  O/U 21-16 against winning teams,  11-6 against winning teams in 2nd half and 6-3 against Pacific division. This one goes OVER.

INDIANA PACERS at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Game Total OVER 188 at -107 for 1 unit(W)
Good day. 109-106 Pacers easy Over.

NBA Thursday

37-28  8,100

Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns
Another bad teams matching up. Sacramento Kings 7-30 on the road, only Charlotte has a worse road record in NBA, giving up -3.5 points to the free falling Phoenix.  The Kings are bad and according to today's match up the Suns are worse. Overall the Kings are better, but Suns at home are better than Kings on the road, right? It sure seems like a simple solution except Kings as a short favorite occurred 17 times this season and they have won 11 of them. Still the Kings can lose against the worst, or at least the bad, than you should also consider the Suns 8-20 against sub .500 teams and that number is magnified in second half 3-10. Sacramento playing high octane offense and Phoenix are 8-19, 5-11 in second half, against offensive teams.
Fading the Suns.

SACRAMENTO KINGS -3.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Wednesday

37-27  9,200

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76er's
Milwaukee is 3rd in central at 34-35 and 16-18 away. Comparing to their ATS record 31-38, 19-15 away indicating their strength is on the road receiving points.  Philadelphia 27-43, but playing above .500 at 20-17, coming off a grueling road trip and now rested. Their last home stand was successful 3 out of 4 including a cover against Miami.  This will be the third meeting Milwaukee leading the series 2-1 SU and ATS.  Although the Bucks are sliding on 7-18 ATS on second half and on 3 game losing streak 76er's are 8-17 SU second half slide 2-8 as short home favorites. The Bucks 4-1 as short dog and 9-5 against Atlantic division.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS +1 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

36-26  9,210

Took a tough loss last time out, but anytime your in a tight game I rather get the last shot and I got 2 tries with Spurs 95-96 loss. Moving on.

Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
I like both of these teams. The Clippers have the 4th best winning percentage in NBA and the 4th best road record in NBA. Dallas is not in the same class as L.A., had too many losses early without Dirk, but they have bounced back and more importantly are 4th in Money. This type of match up, contender vs ATS winner, usually gives the advantage to the money team getting the points. Not so today with the contender getting a point before moving to pick'em. It's building up to be a tight one and I like this game to go Over with offense in motion. Both teams are top ranked Over team in a offensive oriented spot. Expect early point surge to carry over into second half.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS at DALLAS MAVERICKS
First Half OVER 102.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
But this game just went into OT
Game Total OVER 202 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Today I'm lucky! 102-109 Dallas in OT

NBA Sunday

Very busy sports weekend. Sticking to the hard wood in Texas.

36-25-1  10,280

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
Basketball in Texas is always good. Looking at Spurs 53-16, first in Southwest, visiting Houston to take on the 38-31 Rockets, 3rd in Southwest. Rockets tough at home 24-10 and don't get points often, but they have covered as a home dog of  3 or less, the last one against Oklahoma, 4-1 in last 4 home games. However the Rockets are just above average on revenge games and division opponents are giving them trouble. The Spurs are tough on winning teams and so far 6-1 in second half. 21-8 against poor defensive teams, 10-3 in second half.  Also 5-1 in second half against good offensive teams.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -1 at -107 for 1 unit(L)
Had the last look, but could not convert.

NBA Friday

36-24-1  11,350

Boston at Dallas

Boston third in Atlantic in the mix and will be motivated. They lost 2 in a row ,but by one point to New Orleans in last game and 2 points to Miami before that. Today the Celtics are in Dallas taking on the Mavericks. Dallas was embarrassed in the last game at home 96-113 loss to Brooklyn as -3.5 point favorite. Second most points allowed in last 20 games. I like this game go go Under the Total. Dallas in a spot to bring defensive pressure. Boston offense drops on the road, but defense keeps them in.

Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks

Game Total Under 195.5 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Wednesday

35-24-1  10,350 

Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Bobcats
5th in Atlantic meets 5th in Southwest, that's where the similarity end.  The Raptors are 26-41 with .500 ATS  and is a team moving up while the Cats at 15-52, 22-41 ATS, is the worst team in NBA. But this is no news and Toronto on the road has been weak except for their ATS record, reflective of their underdog status. That's not the case here this is 9-24 SU road team giving -6.5 points to  11-22 ATS home record team.  But Toronto just blew them out, you say.  At -12.5 or -13 that was a narrow home cover. This one might tighten up in Charlotte, but than again Cats coming off a SU win scoring 119 points might regress. Anybody's game to lose tonight, but I do feel the offense will crank it up a notch. The Bobcats did score 119 points in their last effort and it's unlikely to be repeated today, but let's say the Cats play 20 points below that's still 99 points and Toronto played 3 games in a row scoring below 99 points, but last 4 game road trip scored above 110 points in 3 out of 4 allowed over 118 points in 3 out of 4 very porous on the road. The Total has been on a swing and it's moved up and down within a point, point and a half of 195. Toronto overall O/U 33-34, but 20-13 on the road. Bobcats also a Under team, but slight Over at home 17-15, 8-4 when Total is in low to mid 190's and 17-9 against losing teams.  This game goes OVER.

TORONTO RAPTORS at CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Game Total OVER 194.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Monday

34-23-1  10,360

Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies lost their last two road games, but their road trip was impressive. Similar to their run last year about this time of the season (7-3 SU in last 10 games) and their 4 ATS losses have been on very slim margin. What's made this Grizzlies so tough? All you need to do is to look at their opposition's score, in their last 10 games 98 points to Miami was the most than 97 to Portland, but after that no more than 92 points and 6 games held their opponents in the 80's, that is outstanding defense. The visiting Minnesota is on a bit of a surge themselves. Minnesota took out San Antonio SU as a 9 point home dog on 3/12 than missed an ATS cover at Indiana by 1 point and went on to cover at Houston and win SU against New Orleans at home. The Wolves will be a dangerous dog with this big margin maybe too big even for this tough defense minded Memphis squad.  Minnesota defense is lacking on the road giving up plenty of triple digit scoring, but Memphis did go through an very tough road trip against 3 very good home teams with 4 games in 5 days schedule double back to back. Minnesota on second leg of home road back to back. Home team is O/U 3-14 after scoring less than 85 points, O/U 12-21 in all home games. Visitors O/U 11-24 against winning teams and this match up has produced 80% Under.

Minnesota Timberwolves +14.5 points at -110 for 1unit(L)

MINNESOTA TIMEBERWOLVES at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Game Total UNDER 183 at -109 for 1 unit(W)
77-92 Memphis Grizzlies

NBA Sunday

34-22-1  11,430

Been busy with March madness, but no excuses the Association is in the home stretch and we're going to keep our eyes on the prize.

Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets
These two teams come in with very similar record and exact same record ATS. Above .500 SU and under .500 ATS so you would have to consider the chances of Atlanta as a underdog. It's also a revenge situation just loosing this meeting in Atlanta. However is you notice the Hawks as a dog is 9-17 SU whereas the Nets are 27-8 SU as a favorite and considering this spread being a two possession ATS the underdog advantage does not weigh in. Nets well rested and meeting the Hawks that's already played 3 games since their last meet. Backing the Nets here.

BROOKLYN NETS -4 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

33-22-1  10,430

Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers
Got a reverse line movement on this game with -1 point spread opening with Cleveland is now -1 Wizards. Washington had a nice run 2/02 to 2/25 for span of 10 games going 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS. 6 games since they are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS. Cleveland also had a run of 6 straight ATS wins 2/13 to 2/27 and now tapered a bit  going  2-3 ATS in last 5 games. Maybe Washington's win with the largest ATS -10.5 cover and offense breaking over 100 points will carry over to this game. But that was the Bobcats and the Wizards have struggled to score in other recent games. Good thing their defense is not allowing much points. Rather than to tangle with the short line that's reversed the Total looks poised to go UNDER. Washington's 104 point scoring in last game against the Bobcats likely to come down on the road. Cleveland has allowed 5 straight games of triple digit points, longest 100+ points allowed, but that number too is likely decline. Washington on the road O/U 6-23, 2nd half of season 4-13, after 10+ points win 1-6, against Central 1-11, against sub .500 teams 7-20, in 2nd half 1-8. Cleveland doesn't trend Under as well as Washington, but Kyle Irving out of the line up to make it little harder on Cavalier's offense. The points will come at a premium today. Go with the UNDER.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Game Total UNDER 191 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Tuesday

32-22-1  9,430

Bagged another winner last night. Moving on to the East where Atlantic #3 will m will meet #4.

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76er's
The Celtics 31-27 stalking Brooklyn and front runner N.Y., but they are playing road trip heavy schedule and away games have given them trouble, 10-18 SU, Philadelphia has not been any different. The 76er's are a losing team, but ATS wise they are 2 teams above Boston, coming off back to back ATS win. This game will have the Sixers playing the role of a spoiler and the spread has moved from pick to +2.5 home dog. There are positives to Sixers in this match up, but motivated Celtics might be a bit much for the wearily Philadelphia team. They got a one day break but, playing 2 sets of back to back this being the first leg of second set and 3rd game in 4 days with their winning margin narrowing, 9 point ATS win against Golden State down to 3 point ATS win at Washington, which usually signals a ATS loss. Philadelphia is not good at winning ATS following a SU loss ATS cover 5-2. The Celtics are 9-4 so far in second half, 4-2 well rested and they are winning games in low scoring fashion. Fading the Sixers tonight.

BOSTON CELTICS -2.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Monday

31-22-1  8,430

Coming off a nice Sunday with two for one hitting sides and total. Looking to keep on keeping on!
Following Atlanta Hawks to Denver for their second leg of back to back road game.

Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets
Atlanta Hawks lose a close call in Los Angeles, but cover ATS and that's a winner. The Hawks are pretty good on back to back games, 9-5 SU & ATS, and play well against Northwest opponents, 5-2 ATS. This 33-25 Hawks will be getting hefty +9 points tonight, better than last night, and the spread was +10 points earlier. Last time Atlanta got +9 points was all the way back in 11/04 at Oklahoma City, you know what happened in that game, Hawks won SU 104-95. So you got to ask yourself, can the Nuggets be good enough to win in double digit fashion? Denver Nuggets own the best home record and they are killing it ATS at home and though the Hawks are good they are on their 6th road game and last night's game at L.A. was draining. The Hawks successful road trip also reflective of their schedule against weak opponents which gradually escalated to stronger opponents and they will see the toughest court in all of NBA

DENVER NUGGETS -9 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

30-22-1  7,430

Atlanta Hawks at L.A. Lakers
Last game on slate tonight and Lakers are surging toward a post season spot, but Atlanta playing good ball coming off a poor showing in Phoenix poised to bring their A game tonight. Atlanta has bounced back after a single loss all three times in last 10 games. Lakers are coming off a significant win, 22 point blow out, against Minnesota. However that blow out comes against a rag tag injury riddled Timberwolves not the Hawks. Atlanta #2 in Southeast taking 3 out of last 4 on the road straight up . The Lakers have trouble against the Southeast, 1-6, and they have trouble scoring, O/U 6-16. L.A. on a spot for point decline, 8-14 after scoring over +105.

Atlanta Hawks +6 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

ATLANTA HAWKS at LOS ANGELES lAKERS
Game Total UNDER 206.5 at -103 for 1 unit(W)
Taking care of business!

NBA Saturday

30-12-1   8,510

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks
The Raptors have dropped three straight, twice as a favorite and once as a small dog lost all three in double digit ATS. That 5 game win streak from 2/08 to 2/19 and all the way to 2/22 Toronto was 6-1, but that's all fading fast. Milwaukee Bucks have always given Toronto trouble beating the Raptors in last 10 meeting. Toronto only covered twice ATS in their last 10 match ups and that was getting 9.5 and 10 points. Milwaukee just beat Houston and Dallas on the road with double digit ATS win margin, but they have struggled to that point and winning three has not been accomplished since 1/17 to 1/22. It's a tough call ATS, but today's Total looks a bit high. Toronto games on the road does not cover +200 points. The last game set at 192.5 in Toronto sailed OVER, but Milwaukee on a spot to decline. Toronto may score more than 81 points, but it's going to fall short. Got low scoring Refs on the floor let's make them baskets hard to come.

TORONTO RAPTORS at MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Game Total UNDER 200.5 at -108 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Friday

30-20-1  9,560

Oklahoma Thunder at Denver Nuggets
This is a good game and the last game on slate tonight. Denver at home after another offensive showing in Portland. Amazing momentum considering that game in Portland was in a situational Under, but blasted through extremely high road total of 210. Yes, Oklahoma flexed their defense in holding last 2 opponents in 70's while rolling past 100 points, but Denver at Pepsi center with momentum will not yield. This total opened at 221 before declining to the current 217. Two of the fastest offense in NBA square off you know I'm going against the decline.

OKLAHOMA THUNDER at DENVER NUGGETS
Game Total OVER 217 at -105 for 1 unit(L)
Almost went to OT which likely would of gone OVER. Nuggets are rolling at home.

NBA Wednesday

30-19-1   10,580

Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks
This game is poised to go below the set Total. The number has been on slow decline since opening with line up uncertain. The faltering N.Y. defense returned against the 76er's and the Warriors fell below 100 points for the first time in six games. Last time 6 triple digit scoring was broken the scoring continue to free fall and that happened on the road. Looking for tough scoring today.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS at NEW YORK KNICKS
Game Total UNDER 205 for -102 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Monday

Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors
This game maybe a game between two losing teams, Toronto 4th in Atlantic playing .411 ball and Washington 3rd in Southeast playing .315 ball. Both teams coming off wins and showing impressive improvement in last 10 games. What most will notice in this match up is how poor the Wizards have played on the road at 4-22 so Toronto 15-14 at home is enough to bite on -4.5 ATS. Toronto 15-9 ATS against losing teams and 8-2 against Southeast opponents. As easy of a choice as this may seem Washington is the top ATS team in all of NBA. That 4-22 away record melts away into the black 16-9-1 on the road 16-5 following a non conference game and 14-1 revenging a home loss. There are indications from their recent meet this spread will widen and the first half differential should hold the bigger edge, Washington 1st half offense has improved while Toronto's have declined. The second angle comes on situation for both team scoring to decline. Which is showing a low 189, but there are rising pressure to push this number higher.
We'll look to make a play on these angles. Washington First Half ATS taking points and looking to take Game Total UNDER the rising number.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS First Half +3 at -115 for 1 unit(W)
WASHINGTON WIZARDS First Half Money LINE +145 for 0.5 units(W)

WASHINGTON WIZARDS at TORONTO RAPTORS
Game Total UNDER 190.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Boom! 3-0

NBA Thursday

Short card today., but good games though. From the looks of it  public take is on Miami as a small road favorite. They are riding strong performance and Chicago has been beaten at home by too many foes. It's been Chicago defense that's been keeping them around, but it's not exactly going under with the Total in low numbers. I think the case is true today with Total 186 being too low. The game does show Miami in point increase position and Chicago on point decline, but realistic number is low 190's. Miami is on scoring terror with 6 consecutive triple digit games tied in with LBJ surging. Chicago had that 69 point loser, but otherwise on their high end of scoring spectrum in their 90's in last 6 and even cracking triple digits at Indy. This is likely to hit 185.5 so you may want to watch the boards.

MIAMI HEAT at CHICAGO BULLS 
Game Total OVER 186 at -101 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

Coming into the second half NBA.

Charlotte Bobcats at Orlando Magic.
Going with low ranking teams. The Magic is anything but magical and the fact is 2 or 3 possession differential point spread favorite is a misleading proposition. The last time Orlando won as a favorite was early season game 2 and 11 which was a single possession favorite the rest are all losers. Yes the Magic coming off -30 points loss against Atlanta is a likely bounce back spot, but this situation has only brought smaller margin of loss and giving up points is not a good idea. The Cats are dismal themselves 3-7 last 10 and also coming off an blow out by the hands of Indiana. Despite their trouble the Cats managed a SU win in Orlando the last meet and the sequence of games leading up to this Orlando games looks very similar to the last time they met. The call is too many points given up by Orlando.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +5 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Monday

29-19-1   9,580

Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76'ers
What's going on with 76'ers games?  Besides their last 10 ATS being 7-3, they were blown out by Indy in one of those loss, but as ATS indicates Sixers are playing well. Their Total is hitting extremely low numbers. Last game  163 under by  28, before that 157 under by  23,  you get the picture. This game has been 185, but downward pressure is coming. Go against the grain the game is going Over as the scores will come via L.A. Clippers and pace will dictate Over.  Despite the low scoring games Phillies total has risen from their last game and Over situation for Clippers after returning to full strength.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS at PHILADELPHIA 76'ers
Game Total OVER 184.5 at -103 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Saturday

28-19-1  8,580

Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Looking at this match. We won easily with Denver in their last game, whupping of Chicago at home, but now they are on the road facing 16-34 Cavaliers. It's about 60% public money on Denver and line movement has been quiet. Denver is winning 8 games straight, 7-1 ATS, crushed three opponents by double digits last game was 26 point margin winner ATS and over 30 point margin straight up. As well as Nuggets are playing Cleveland's got a streak of their own, 3 SU & ATS at home, one of those win coming against NBA contender OKC and the Cavs have logged triple digit scoring in all three games. That makes 4 wins out of last 5 home games all wins with triple digit scoring. Cleveland is playing their best ball so far this season at home. It looks like a match up I don't want to give up points, but again Denver is pretty hot. Rather then sides the high scoring out look is a bit too much. Denver's defense is under rated and Cavaliers tighten defense after allowing triple digit scoring. Both of these teams are coming off offensive scoring off the charts and this game will reverse course. Going Under in Cleveland.

DENVER NUGGETS at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Game Total UNDER 216 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
How did you like that!

NBA Friday

28-18-1  9,680

Chicago Bulls at Utah Jazz
Planning to have a twist to this game. The Bulls getting schooled in Denver should be looking to redeem some respectability so we're going to hit the 2nd half  Utah. What we don't want is the Jazz to come storming out of the gate putting up double digit lead. That may negate this play, but as long as the difference is within 10 I will hit it.  Follow along...

The game is Chicago 58 Utah 50 at the Half.(L)
The line is Utah -4.5 at -110 (It opened -5) Bulls are playing well! But look for defense to step up for the Jazz.

Utah could not finish. That missed 3 point shot would of covered 2nd half ATS!

NBA Thursday

27-18-1   8,680

As the season progresses certain patterns takes shape and similar to recent seasons one home court is proving to be one of the toughest, Pepsi Center in the Mile High city.  Here in Denver where the visiting team need to adjust to 5,280 feet altitude, regardless of those who say it doesn't make a difference, is where the Nuggets hold 21-3 record.

Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets
The Bulls at 29-19 is a team stalking the top teams and they will be better if they can just hang around and get healthy. They hold a winning record at home and away which is always a good indication of a contending team. They will be getting some points at Denver and the Nuggets are rolling winners, 7 straight to be exact, and last time I saw something like this game I got killed playing across the board. Yet again short handed Bulls meet white hot Nuggets. Got to go with Denver.

DENVER NUGGETS -5.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)
That's how it's supposed to be. Should of gone across the board.

NBA Sunday

26-18-1  7,680

Despite the ugly game I did finish Saturday with a profit. Send me a email for additional plays and info.

Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons
The day game today will feature Howard-less Lakers at Detroit. Short home dog always dangerous and indeed the Pistons hold 13-12 home record. The Pistons come in off a fresh win against Cleveland making 3 wins out of last 4 home game, 3 of them scoring triple digits.  Laker record against sub .500 teams is 5-9, 2-5 away from L.A. Although Lakers are moving the ball much better and have won 4 out of last 5, Lakers also scored triple digits in 4 out of last 5. I think this game goes below the Total with scoring indicators reaching a high point. 117 for Detroit and 111 for L.A. is about as high as it gets and this one goes nowhere close to their previous score. Today's Total did reach 202 for a short period, but 201.5 is most common.
We have low scoring refs on the floor and this match up looks to fall short of this number.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS at DETROIT PISTONS
Game Total UNDER 201.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

You guys enjoy the Super Bowl!

NBA Saturday

26-16-1  9,860

Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks
If your not up to date in NBA you'd better check out this match up. It'll be extremely short handed Bulls low on gas on the road.  Atlanta here on revenge mode and well rested.  This game holds promise of wire to wire performance by Atlanta.
We take this game across the board.

ATLANTA HAWKS -2 1st quarter at -110 for 0.5 units(L)
ATLANTA HAWKS -4 1st half at -110 for 0.5 units(L)

ATLANTA HAWKS -7 at -108 for 1 unit(L)
That was ugly.

NBA Friday

26-15-1   10,940

Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets
In this game we predict the nature of the beast will show the defensive side of match up. Chicago coming off a rare triple digit scoring while maintaining the low points allowed, 7 straight games holding opponents in the 80's, and in this spot Bulls scoring will come down. The Nets coming off a loss could not defend in it's last game. This match Brooklyn is not going to allow easy baskets. The situation looks right for a grind out game. Backing the Under tonight.

CHICAGO BULLS at BROOKLYN NETS 
Game Total UNDER 181.5 at -108 for 1 unit(L)
Close, but no cigar.

NBA Thursday

25-15-1   9,940

Small card today. Here's what we're looking at.

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors
We do like the Warriors. They have been playing well at home. Winners in 6 out of last 8 and most recent home wins comes as a Dog against OKC and LA Clippers, both winning teams. Golden State did drop the first two games of the road trip, but bounced back to finish the last two road games by double digit margin wins. Returning home the Warriors will host the Mavericks continuing their road trip.  As much as the Warriors have been money they do come home a bit wounded where as the Mavs got their big German back and rolling 9 out of 10 ATS. Dallas playing better ATS away and winning January games to the tune of 11-3 ATS. Take the road dog on short leash.

DALLAS MAVERICKS +3.5 at -108 for 1 unit(W)
Oops no Dirk! No problem got'm by the hook!

NBA Tuesday

24-15-1   8,940

Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trailblazers
Welcome gang! Another night at the hard court. Blazers play well at home, but two games against the Clippers home and away has been draining. I would normally look at Portland at home on the bounce back, which is the way the line has been moving, but Dallas on the rise will be handful. The Blazers have taken care of business at home against lesser teams however the Mavericks will be
a different story.

DALLAS MAVERICKS +3 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic

Looking at another low level game with little attention. Orlando on 4 game slide and this is a revenge spot. Unfortunately Orlando has not been doing well in revenge spot 5-19 SU and 10-13 ATS. Orlando is also 1-8 as a fovorite. Detroit coming off a no cover double digit loss to Miami on the road, but they were rolling 3 straight ATS including a short cover at Chicago. Like Detroit getting points.

DETROIT PISTONS  +2 at -102 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Saturday

22-15-1   6,890

L.A. Clippers at Portland Trailblazers
The Clippers visit the Rose Garden. This is still a bad spot for the Clippers minus Chris Paul and the small spread indicating a close game is misleading. The Blazers are no joke 14-8 at home facing Clippers in a funk. Being a 1 point home dog does not do justice to this match up. Take the Portland moneyline.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZER ML +105 for 1 unit(W)

Got a rising score here. Take the 2nd Half Over 94.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Friday

22-14-1  7,940

Oklahoma City at Sacramento Kings
OKC fourth quarter collapse did them in at Golden State and you know this is a bounce back spot for the Thunder playing a sub .500 team. You know that the Books know that, but you still like them willing to give up -9.5? Why not consider going Over the big number 209.5 the Kings looking to break over triple digits and the Thunder will have their offense revving.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER at SACRAMENTO KINGS
Game Total OVER 209.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Thursday

21-14-1   6.940

Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns
The Clippers could not defend their home court against Oklahoma in last game and beyond the arc rainbows by the Thunder put that game out of reach. The Suns made a quick trip to Sacramento after 2 home losses and pulled off a upset win SU. Still rare win does not quality for a strong play, but they happen to catch the Clipper bit off balance and last time the Clips played like this they rolled off 4 losses, it's up to 3 losses ATS, so a road trip may not be a remedy. Tonight's match rather than to choose sides the UNDER stands out as both teams coming to a low scoring situation. The Suns over shot their scoring average in last game and this one will decline. Clips weakness in their recent losses comes on the defensive end this should be a clamp down mode game. This game holds promise of grind out type of match and points will come at a premium.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS at PHOENIX SUNS
Game Total UNDER 191 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Tuesday

20-13-1   6,990

Oklahoma City at Los Angeles Clippers
My thought about who's the better team built for the post season? I think it's the Thunder, but here today at Staple Center with CP3 sidelined, a last minute change, pushed the spread to +2.5 points. This I will back. Both teams coming off losses, Clips to the Warriors and Thunder to the Nuggets, looking poised to bounce back. Best record in NBA hangs on this game I'd say home court advantage and points. Oklahoma has been on the ropes in this road trip. Going Los Angeles Clippers.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +2.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

2nd HALF OVER 100 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Monday

19-13-1   5,990

Monday already? Time is flying by isn't it? It's already feeling like Spring, but NBA is still in January. Better stay sharp because we're back to the dog day.

Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Hornets
The bad vs the bad is what we're looking at. Just the type of game that fly's below the radar. The Hornet 13-27 is a respectable 21-19 ATS compared to Sacramento 16-25 is only one game better ATS at 17-22-2 and they are terrible 4-15 on the road. So does the lowly road dog hold any promise? Rather than the Dog coming to play, which is not a bad idea after a rare road win or a win period, the thought here is how porous the Kings have been. The Kings despite not allowing triple digit scoring in their last 3 games it has yet to go 4 games and the current record of 3 straight Under's is the longest streak yet. Sure Hornets have been holding low scoring, but that number too has been on the rise. The situation for Over is 191 and if the game stays close enough this game should go Over.

SACRAMENTO KINGS at NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Game Total OVER 191 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Friday

17-13-1  3,990

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
I see the road favorite Thunder is where the money has been pushing, but Mavs are looking better more and more. You don't want to count them out this early the Texas road trip is a killer for many teams. It's going to be a good game and I would go with the points, but the less popular Total Over is the better choice. This game tonight get's a high 205.5, which is perceived as too high, is very much reachable.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER at DALLAS MAVERICKS
GAME TOTAL OVER 205.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

*SECOND HALF
The game has closed the first half below 100 and second half Total 103 suggesting the game on pace Under 205.5 is still very reachable. Meaning 2nd half Over is a bonus.
OKC at DAL OVER 103 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Tuesday

17-12-1   4,440

Milwaukee Bucks at L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are money makers if your playing against them. They've had some big pay outs especially if you were on some of those big dogs and happened to throw a bone at the improbable money line. You've done well. I suppose the Lakers can pat their backs for beating Cleveland at home, winning coast to coast to boast, but that was their second ATS win out of last 7 and one of those win came as a 13.5 underdog.
Bucks playing well on the road, 3 out of last 4, last time they got 6 points on the road Milwaukee took the game SU.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS +6 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

MLB Monday

16-12-1  3,440

Another dog day Monday coming up!

L.A. Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
This line moved around from -2.5 down to -1.5 before the Chris Paul "out" news broke out and the line moved to -4 and sitting on -4.5 which is a big deal considering CP3 is the game closer and field general. The Clippers are not the Clippers of old, but they were looking to invade one of the toughest court in NBA against one of the premier team. It was a pretty even looking ATS and there is an old angle to consider here. With Chris Paul out you back the team without their star player in the first game of his absence. A step up type game between two winning teams. The theory is the team without their star player will collectively improve covering the absence. Most effective in the first game as prolonged absence will wear down the unit.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +4.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Thursday

14-12-1  1090

Miami Heat at Portland Trailblazers
Miami has been struggling of late going 3-4 SU & 1-6 ATS coming to the Rose Garden where the Blazers have not dropped a game since 12/8. Yes, the Heat can bounce back from another low scoring game like the one they played against Chicago then won and covered a big road spread at Washington. But the Heat lost by 10 points in Indy scoring only 77 and Blazers in Portland is not going to be easy of a bounce back. The Heat has yet to cover these short lines as a road favorite. Portland to hand another loss to Miami take the money line and ATS.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS +135 for 1 unit(W)
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS +3.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Wednesday

13-12-1   90

Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers
Two teams in two different spectrum as Dallas once a dominant force in NBA is now below .500 team and Clippers once basement team now one of the elite. In a situation where Clippers wins have become expected and Mavericks loss anticipated the spread has swelled to 10.5, it was 11 earlier, a large number. However Clippers have covered as double digit home favorite quite easily this season. The Mavs have received 10.5 points 4 times so far all on the road covering the spread 3 out of 4 making them formidable with this many points. Will the Clippers cover? I would be surprised because they are on two consecutive games with rising shooting percentage above their average and they blew out Golden State in last start. Look for Clippers be a bit lack luster in this No Cover game.

DALLAS MAVERICKS +10.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Tuesday

12-12-1  -910

It's been a while. Hope everyone is safe and doing well. We are looking at Phoenix at Milwaukee Total of 199. This number from average perspective the Suns scoring less than 20 points a quarter in recent games seems like a high mountain to climb. On Milwaukee's side the scores have gone triple digits and sailed Over at home. So how does this game stand to adjust? It goes Over based on both teams coming below moving average score. Both teams coming off 80ish scoring games, about 15 points below for the Suns and the Bucks. Look for scoring to push up, maybe triple digit scoring on both sides.

PHOENIX SUNS at MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Game Total OVER 199 at -106 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

11-12-1   -1,910 

Philadelphia Seventy Sixers at Brooklyn Nets

Despite the Sixers going way Over the Total in their last 2 road trips. The two games that's gone Over, both in Texas at Dallas and at Houston, unusual in back to back situation allowed and scored triple digits. Last time that happened was 11/24, 11/25 Oklahoma City and Phoenix back to back, but it doesn't happen often and Philadelphia plays Under on the Road. Brooklyn Nets also plays Under better on the road, but they play Under overall and team offense defense points stat very similar to Philadelphia. This line has been trending tight, but finally broke above 187 for the second time. Taking the hook with the Under.

PHILADELPHIA at BROOKLYN
Game Total UNDER 187.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

11-10-1  120

L.A. Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers
There's a strange relation between the Lakers backers to continuously look for reasons to take the Lakers. Coming off a road win, ATS Push, at Washington was good, but not inspiring especially how close they cut it in the 4th quarter. Maybe the feeling is Lakers are climbing, they held a opponent under 100 points, only happened 3 times in last 10 games, and the Sixers seem to be declining dropping 2 in a row unable to score 90 points in both games. That puts Philadelphia 11-12 ATS, 6-8 Home ATS, Sixers stock is falling. However Lakers ATS at 9-14, 3-7-1 away (3-8 if you had the hook in Washington), has been a money team to play AGAINST. Philadelphia bounce back game after 2 losses this season 4 out of 4. 6-3 playing a losing team, 8-2 against poor defensive teams allowing more than 99 points. 4-1 after a loss by 10 points or more. Lakers are 1-6 in non conference games, 0-2 against Atlantic division and just not good on the road.
Take Philadelphia +3.5 and Take Philadelphia Money Line.

PHILADELPHIA +3.5 at -103 for 1 unit(L)
PHILADELPHIA ML +145 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Friday

10-10-1  -880

Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets
Memphis is a forward progressing team. This mix of talent plays very well as a unit scoring just above 97 points on average and holding opponents to just below 91 points the winning differential is a excellent 6.5 points. That's a mark of a good defensive minded team. 14-4 and ATS 12-5-1 record making the Grizz a usual suspect to play on any given night. The host Denver Nuggets is a middle of the pack, 11-12 and ATS 13-10, team not living up to the expectations, but the Nuggets were on the road quite a bit, 6 at home 17 on the road, and they're forte is at the Pepsi Center not on the road. Denver 5-1 at the mile high city coming off a ATS cover at Minnesota. The Grizzlies have not covered in past 4 games and struggling to score. Coming to Denver will not be easy to make the turn around. Going with Denver

DENVER NUGGETS -1 at -103 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Thursday

10-8-1  1,280

Charlotte Bobcats at Atlanta Hawks

Two teams headed to a different direction, is what the reviews will tell you. Yes the Hawks are winning games 10 out of last 12, 7-2 at home, and one tough team to crack. Charlotte is on the other extreme where as hard as they may try the win just slips through their finger. As easy as the wins have been coming for Atlanta that's not always the case for covering the spread. The Atlanta Hawks are one of the top teams to record one of the worst ATS record and the Bobcats kept it close enough to cover the last meet. It very much seems the case today with the Cats getting +10.5 points coming off a ATS cover against the streaking Clippers and the Hawks just covering the spread against Orlando just as easily could of been a no cover. Although Charlotte with hefty points is a angle good enough for a play the Total to sink Under 194 with Charlotte on the road making this a grind out game and Atlanta scoring Total on the decline is the top play. Atlanta Total set between 192 to 195 have yet to go Over.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS at ATLANTA HAWAKS
Game Total Score UNDER 194 at -109 for 2 units(L)

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +10.5 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Monday

10-7-1  2,380

Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 11-9, 7-5 at home holding a winning record and they will be hosting Detroit Pistons coming in at 7-15, 2-10 on the road, trying stay out of the NBA Central basement. Going into NBA Atlantic is a tough task for any team with only Toronto having a home losing record. The Sixers will look to regain the home edge and get back a win after splitting home win road loss on back to back games against Boston. The last game was not only a loss for the Sixers but their third lowest scoring game at 79 so there should be some offensive effort here. Most betters will side with the Sixers and they will count on Philadelphia to take care of business knocking out a weak road team like Detroit...  However you must keep in mind it was the Wells Fargo Center where the Pistons ended their 8 games straight losing streak to open their season. Since that win Detroit is playing .500 ball and they seem to be a spoiler for certain teams, like Oklahoma City beat them twice ATS, Cleveland twice SU & ATS and Philly round two? Detroit offensive scoring has risen in 5 straight games coming off a rare road win, even if it was against weak Cleveland team it was a step up for the Pistons. The 76ers very prone to dropping consecutive games as they have only bounced back from a single loss once against the spread and have yet to do so straight up. Going with the Pistons being a thorn to the Sixers.



DETROIT PISTONS +6.5 at -110(L)
Just missed

NBA Monday

10-6-1  3,480

Portland Trailblazers at Charlotte Bobcats
Another rare Bobcats game being favored at home. First was 11/13 Washington 92-76 win cover -2 U191 the Wizards biggest ATS margin loss -14 then 11/21 Toronto 98-97 win No cover O192.5, the second game was against a team that was playing the second set of back to back 4 games in 5 days. Portland has been a small road dog 4 times 11/13 @Sacramento 103-86 win cover 2.5 U197.5 next was 11/21 @Phoenix 87-114 loss no cover 2 just O200.5 then 11/26 @Detroit 101-108 loss no cover 1 O193 and their last game 12/01 @Cleveland 118-117 double OT win cover 1.5 O193, but was headed Under in regulation. This particular match looks to go UNDER 194 as this is a rising Total following both teams playing Over (Portland was O193 and Charlotte was O188 with this game set at 194) Portland trending UNDER away 6-4, after allowing +105 points UNDER is 2-5 historically 25-13 and scoring +105 is UNDER 23-15. The Bobcats and the Trailblazers have been allowing triple digits to their respective opponents, but neither of these team rarely break 100. Struggling defense may give up the Over, but lacking offense will only eat up the clock.

PORTLAND at CHARLOTTE UNDER 194 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Sunday

9-6-1  2,480

Orlando Magic at L.A. Lakers
Magic is on the slide and they might not Jameer Nelson, he's game time decision, but Lakers put on a clink against Denver Nuggets 122-103 win and Magic starters may not be any concern. There's a fat chance Orlando take this game in L.A. 14-32 all time, 4-18 in L.A., however has won 6 of last 9 meetings splitting the last 4 meetings. The Lakers are playing off a young season high I feel their game to drop off a bit maybe not enough decline to lose this game, but giving up this many points may come back to bite their backers in the 4th quarter. My take on the Magic is they last peaked on 11/23 beating Cleveland SU then 1 point margin ATS loss against Boston further declining to San Antonio blow out loss by -13.5 ATS margin. From there Brooklyn game although a loss was a bounce back game just about even at the half and ATS loss margin was -7.  The Lakers +19 point win against Denver, like the blow out win against Dallas, the follow up game has been disappointing. Sure the Lakers have the talent and fire power to blow away the Magic, but will looks for Orlando to hang around for the late cover.

ORLANDO MAGIC +13.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Friday

9-5-1  3,560

Portland Trailblazers at Boston Celtics
The Blazers on the road for 7 games stretch and they've dropped the first the Brooklyn, in low scoring game, then at Detroit, got the score up over 100, but gave up more, and the winless Washington Wizards are winless no more thanks to the Blazers. Boston on the other side lost Rajon Rondo on 2 game suspension. Coming off a low scoring loss to Brooklyn this one looks to improve with production in the paint. Although Boston at home is not be taken lightly Portland feeling a bit caught as the first team to lose to Washington when they could of pulled out a win. The Blazers have had ATS success with Boston and they will look to get their first road win on their trip. I think they will take this game with Celtics lacking stability.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS -108 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

8-5-1  2,560

Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers
This game has that UNDER feel to it since the line opened and the market has pushed the number down to 201.5 from 204. It's understandable Cleveland coming off 78-84 SU loss ATS +12 cover and way UNDER 193 by -31 points. Second leg of away home B2B and they are UNDER at home so far 3-1. Visiting Suns are simply not good on the road. Their performance drops and I think this game will sink UNDER. I don't recommend chasing lines, I already got it at the open 204, but I will recommend the number based on this situation in Cleveland.

PHOENIX SUNS at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Game Total UNDER 201.5 at -105(W)

NBA Saturday

7-5-1 1,560

Los Angeles Clippers at Atlanta Hawks
The Clips drop 2 in a row, at Oklahoma then Brooklyn as a road favorite and second half scoring comes to a grind in 76-86 finish. They had won 6 in a row prior, but the spike came on two ends of it's Total. One at Oklahoma with season's highest score and the lowest scoring game in Brooklyn. This game looks to adjust back towards the middle. Atlanta has scored in triple digits twice in a row making it 3 times in last 4 games which is a turn from their earlier games and although this match up back in Nov.11th went Under by 30 points, second lowest scoring game this season for both teams, the adjustment from the Books are too low.
L.A. O/U 12-7 after scoring 85 points or less. Atlanta home game Total between 185 to 189.5 O/U 13-10 Last two meetings in Atlanta has gone Over and 10 out of 15 has gone Over.  In proceeding game expect some point decline from Atlanta, but bigger point increase from L.A. going Over this low Total.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS at ATLANTA HAWAKS
Game Total OVER 188 at -105 for 1unit(W)
93-104 That's a OVER.

NBA Tuesday

7-3-1 3,760

Had a excellent night yesterday going 2-0. Games are getting warmer, but still November and there's the College hoops (Doesn't get posted) which we are hitting higher percentage then NBA. Not to worry though it's not about which sports to play on, but to have the best option available which means having abundance of choices. You also have a choice of A or B or none of the above and it never hurts to take none of the above.

Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers
The Total is creeping up a bit, but while the Lakers play at home we are tracking the Over. Let's look at the Nets past games. In small sample they are O/U 0-3 on the road. Went Under at Sacramento after taking two straight Over's at home. Their previous high total of 208 at Miami on 11/7 went crashing Under by 32 points, was not even close 73-103 loss. However the Nets very capable of scoring in triple digits only missed the century mark by 1 point and with point declines in three straight games this one is very likely to go Over. Lakers in tradition with past great Lakers teams have always excelled in open court, their defense will come around more likely on the road, with so many weapons. Keeping the pedal to the metal. The Lake Show and total Over.

BROOKLYN NETS at LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Game Total OVER 208 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

LOS ANGELES LAKERS -6.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
That was a mess 0-2

NBA Monday

5-3-1  1,760

My friend Batis always used to say Mondays are dog day and that's the way we're capping.

Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawaks
Orlando in play with the Hawks heavily favored at -10. The under estimated Magic is sliding with 6 losses out of last 7 failing to reach 100 points in all 6 of those losses. Atlanta has dominated the Magic in past 10 matches and they are coming off a 112-96 win at Sacramento beating the spread by double digits. The trouble with Hawks big margin wins have been the following game giving up big points, recall win at Oklahoma by 9 as a +9 point dog winning margin of 18 points then no cover ATS giving up -4 against Indiana. The loss at Golden State was also following 10 point margin win at Portland. Magic gets no love Orlando on 3rd game in 4 days, but still in a bounce back spot and this schedule comes after 2 day off.
Going with the Orlando dog.

ORLANDO MAGIC +10.5 at -109 for 1 unit(W)

ORLANDO MAGIC at ATLANTA HAWKS
Game Total UNDER 187 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
 Better known as the "Back door Cover" and for those who were on the Hawks "Back door Moose"  

NBA Sunday

3-3-1  -270

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
Following up on my wager notes Michael D'Antoni will officially coach his first game recovering knees and all. He says if the Lakers are not scoring 110 to 120 his scheme is not working right. That scheme was on the money against the Phoenix Suns. Now this game receives the highest total yet at 205.5 against Houston Rockets which interestingly has 3 straight Over's. Followers of Houston Over's were in for a rude awakening when they racked up two plus 100 games to start the season than missed the 206 Over against Portland by 26 points. So players burned on that game isn't so hot to jump on this Over, however Houston is playing Over on the road in season's small sampling is enough to support the Lakers carrying the Over and this match will provide retooling of Lakers game total.

HOUSTON ROCKETS at LOS ANGELES LAKER
Game Total First Half Over 103 at -110(W)
Game Total Over 204.5 at -105(W)

NBA Wager Notes

Los Angeles Lakers on the Staple Center hard court against the visiting Suns and already have implemented the D'Antoni brand of run and gun style. The change is significant in form and this particular game should be a good indicator on how fast this Lakers team can rack points. Shooting clear past 30 points in 1st quarter and defense is really loose. Wouldn't you say this game sails Over 201.5? Suns holding ground and keeping pace, can they last at this pace? Back to back impact will also be greater too at this speed.

NBA Monday

3-2-1 800

Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers coming off a upset loss at home to the under manned Golden State Warrriors. Every Clippers starter fell below their average performance in that loss. Now here comes Clippers nemesis the Cleveland Cavaliers coming off a ATS win SU loss. That was a game Cavs recovered in the second half and I like teams coming off a ATS cover. However Cavs timing to L.A. is not good and Clippers look to take their past losses and upset loss frustrations out on this Cleveland team. Going with L.A. to bounce back at home.

L.A. CLIPPERS -10 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Saturday

2-2-1 -200

Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards
Last night's Celtics home loss to the defense minded Bucks still lacked what Boston is trying to will on their opponents. Which is to shut down their offense.  Boston did a pretty good job in the first half, but Milwaukee got their offense going in the second and they could of easily reached the century mark just dumb luck it held at 99 points. I feel the theme tonight will yet again try to improve their defense and the Wizards have a good chance falling to score tonight. Backing the Under in Boston's home road back to back.

BOSTON CELTICS at WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Game Total UNDER 191 at -107 for 1 unit(W)
Boston didn't cover ATS, but we dodge Pargo's 3 at the end to take this Under!

NBA Friday

1-2-1 -1,200

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
Boston failed to continue the NBA Champs opening game curse losing in Miami, SU & ATS, in very un-Celtic like defensive break down. Not since 2009 has Boston allowed 120 points to be scored. It's likely Milwaukee's scoring will come down to grinding pace today. The Bucks will clog the paint with Scott Skiles defensive scheme. Now with Samuel Dalembert and Joel Przybilla Milwaukee has six 6'10" plus players better suited for Skiles style of play than last season. This match up has produced extremely low scoring games at the TD Garden and nature of these two teams will hold true again.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS at BOSTON CELTICS
Game Total UNDER 196.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Thursday

1-2   -1.200

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
Not all that big on this game. The wagering consensus is on Thunder, but I wouldn't call it a public play it's more like 66%. I'm sure the Thunder does not want to disappoint any expectations and they'll be ready to battle the Spurs. Getting some points however small with contending OKC seems like the way to go for many, but short favorites are San Antonio specialty and current total rising from 201 to 204 also points to San Antonio at home. Just the Spurs being at home, under estimated, is good enough for me.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -2 at -105 for 1 unit(Push)