NBA Wednesday

Orlando catching da Bulls on the 2nd of back to back. Bulls will be coming off a tough match up against Miami Heat. Orlando looking to take the edge.

ORL -3 at +100 for 1 unit(W)

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Toronto looks balanced much better. The top ATS winning team from last season opening on the road getting +5.5 Lets see if they can hang with the Nets.

TOR +5.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)
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Waiting on Warriors line to come out. They will play the Lakers on second of back to back and this Warriors team will be too much for the Lakers after battling the Suns. Ofcourse I'll consider where the spread lands.
Decided to go with the shrot game.

GSW -2 First Quarter -105 for 1 unit(L)
LAL +5 Second Half +100 for 1 unit(W)

Adding:
TOR +7 +100 for 1 unit(L)
ORL ML +116 for 1 unit(W)
Leaving Olrando ATS as is with -3
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Nothing has changed my view of Suns play, inside is weak and 2nd halfs drop, they are not helping the Over.

LAC/PHO Under 213.5 -119 for 1 unit(L)
LAC/PHO Second Half OVER 101.5 -121 for 2 units(W)
PHO Second Half -4 -110 for 1 unit(W)
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So much for keeping the games light. I still like Washington ATS +6, Utah ATS +1 or Money Line, Pacer/Cats U194....Enough!
Sit back chill and watch the games.

Losing focus and my mind is wondering. Not good need to sharpen the picks down to one good one and let most of these games play out.
Thought I caught the middle of LAC/PHO total for sure. General rule to keep in mind is play the big swings on 1st to 2nd half's ATS or Totals and look for big differentials from the original game line. Consider keeping tabs on 1st & 2nd half's team performance. Last season Phoenix was a greater 1st quarter & 1st half team. Today's performance was just the opposite of what they've been doing, surging in the 2nd half, but Clips made some bonehead plays and gave up the low post.

5-4 +1.76 units

Opening with....

Please take a moment for Red Auerbach, RIP.

I'll take the light approach in the early going. It may not be a very clever pick, but go with the Suns in Los Angeles. Lakers will be 70% at best with Kobe maybe better off without him. He should let this go as his knees are still sore, doesn't have the speed and this could backfire with him getting hurt.
As much as Kobe may want to be in the game Jackson should have a short leash. Now the Suns have played 2 below average games against the Lakers in preseason, without Kobe, and Lakers dogged the Suns high scoring game.
Phoenix needs to restore order and have a impact game, quick drive to the inside and kick out beyond the arc for the swish.
Suns 112 - Lakers 94 type game and yes look for the Total number to go up
and hit the Under at 208 or better.

PHO -3.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
Adding:
PHO 1st Quarter -1 at -104 for 1 unit(W)

Still have my trigger with Total now at 208.5 Think there's a chance for 210.
This line moved above 210 with the buy and I got greedy looking for 212 or 212.5 then the Tricket Treaters started and before I knew it the window was closed....what stroke of luck. I would of never guessed Lakers running up the score like that. I'm making adjustments on Orlando and Toronto for tomorrow and oh yeah, Warriors too.
1-1 -0.10 units

NBA Preseason Oct. 24th

Let's go with Pistons at home coming off a embarrassing loss to Denver.
Pistons looking bit more offensive, but still tough inside. Wizards are on the 2nd of back to back with strong showing in 1st leg, Arenas scored 29 points in 27:40 min, Jamison played 39:16 min. and Butler 33:55 min. in 110 - 105 high scoring win against the Hawks. The scheme of things may change for Washington whereas Piston look to test their full strength and bench is solid.

DET -4 at -102 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Preseason Oct. 22

HOUSTON ROCKETS -2.5 at -111 for 2 units(W)

NBA Preseason Oct. 21, 2006

Pinnacle NBA lines are today's link.

Single unit plays.
Orlando Magic -3 at -105(W) against visiting Memphis Grizzlies

Cleveland Cavs -3 at -109(L) against visitng Atlanta Hawks

San Antonio Spurs -2 at -109(W) against visiting Miami Heat

Denver Nuggets +2 at -105(L) visiting Milwaukee Bucks

2-2 -0.14 units

Friday NBA Preseason games

Lines are not out yet, but on the early look I like the Bull at home against T-Wolves and Sonics at home against Portland.

Further research and these two will be on my game watch.

Bulls and Sonics both lost as the biggest ATS favorites. Did I miss couple of bullets? I think so these lines were at -4 when I looked and it didn't interest. Went off doing something else and never got back online in time. Cleveland looks strong, but keep in mind it's human nature to pick teams off the top of your head and end up with the day's heavy favorite that's likely going to get hammered by the public which is not a good thing.

What a Shot Baby

NBA is almost here and I'll be gunning for the books.

Some development to note on the upcoming NBA Euro with Toronto Raptors against Maccabi Tel-Aviv. This line has moved from Toronto -10 to -13.5 since the opening and if your familiar with basketball lines this is a huge line move.
I'm not aware of any Maccabi injuries or changes in the line up, but I do know Raptors are improved. Do they deserve a bigger spread than the Suns? That remains to be seen. I may or may not have a play here, but watch these Raps they were the top ATS money makers last season.

Maybe Batis will have some thoughts to add.

Raps were lights out 118-84

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For Oct. 19th Thursday NBA Pre-Season.
Let's get some warm ups in.

Mavericks at home taking the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. Dallas will play the weak link, practice used my many NBA teams in preseason, no Dirk, Stackhouse, Jason Terry (coaches decision) Dampier (sore hip) Harris (hammy) Bucks will have a line up much closer to their regulars, but coming in here on second of back to back after getting spanked by the Rockets.

Look for lower than average scoring here. Totals are not out yet.
Also players are not under heavy minutes in preseason games and back to back impact is not the same as in regular season. Bucks getting +2.5 against Mavs B-team is very good and money line is worth a shot.

MIL +2.5 at +102 for 1 unit(L)
MIL ML at +127 for 1 unit(L)
Bucks scored only 4 points in 3rd quarter, WTF.
Under was money, but did not get a chance to post.
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Like Clippers to take out the Lakers in pregame -2 points. Current Lakers does not scare anyone.

LAC -2 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
Oh 91-90 Clippers
0-3 -3.10 units

NBA Euro Suns vs 76ers

What do we have going on with this game in Cologne? Line move to 76ers +5.5 from +6.5 with money still moving to 76er's at -114? This is worth an investigation...OK I see the line discrepancy with Greek at +4 points to 76ers.
Total currently at 214.5 (-105 at Pinny) is something you should watch with eyes and ears wide open D'Antoni said he still isn't sure which rules NBA, FIBA or a combination of the two will be used in the Suns-76ers game. "I've asked three times and gotten three different answers," he said. "I guess we'll figure it out before we throw it up."

How high is the motivation level for Philadelphia? I'd say not as high as the media makes it out to be, but Iverson and Nash should both improve from their respective last games.

Be back for this one.

I don't feel comfortable with the Suns now, but I did take the score to fall Under. There's too many x-factor players being looked at by the Suns, although I did notice 11 for 31 three pointers. Sixers are looking at different schemes too and I don't think Suns will get that many good looks.

Suns are burning it up 8 for 18 three pointer already at the half. Matrix is already at 20 points and Barbosa 11 points off the bench with only 5:24 minutes. Suns getting too many shot attempts and hitting at 51% clip.
This Under is going to need lots of help.

Check out the stroke of Phoenix Suns 5 guys in double digit and 5 minutes left in 3rd quarter 11 for 24 three pointers wow!

Suns melt down in the 4th! Sixers caught them at 91-91 tie just outside 5 minutes to go.

Sixer win, Sixer win, come from behind in the 4th quarter and the game is
UNDER!
SUNS/SIXERS UNDER 214.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Anything but a Friendly Match

Monday Night Football in mile high snowing Denver, but I'm working on a basketball game far, far away. I'd rather look for a edge in game with little fan fare in North America as long as I have the advantage. Your locals will not have a line for this so you better have a off shore.

For those who view the play write up, but may have missed the comment by Batis on my last selection, let me tell you this is going to be a game Moscow and Tel-Aviv has been waiting for and these two teams have battled very close match ups. So why the -8 points opening line for CSKA? Isn't that too much? The line has come down to -7.5 with slight money to Maccabi at -106 as of my writing. But I think the Book has it right with good chance of CSKA taking this game with easy ATS cover. CSKA is a stronger team this season with Maccabi having a different look I feel it's a rebuilding year.

I'm sure Batis and his friends will be rooting for the home town CSKA.
I hoping the public will bite the seeming big spread +7.5 Maccabi there's still time so I'll watch the line, but I will take CSKA ATS 9:00 Pacific Standard time for the morning match-up here in the States.

Link is the last match of Maccabi vs CSKA download.

CSKA -7.5 +104 for 1 unit(W)
Cover on the final 2 pointer by CSKA no back door trap on this one.
Now Batis can get on with his studies.

San Antonio Spurs in Lyon, France

Another good match up and with Manu Ginobili sitting out the money has shifted strong to Maccabi Tel-Aviv +11 at -130 to Spurs +120 this line opened at +10 with early Spurs money pushing the line to +11. The tell tale signs of each teams previous matches, both teams crushed their opponents, and the ease of which they were able to score also pushed the Total from 190.5 to 191 with decent money build up on the Over at 191. But when I view their respective last games I see that defense was the key in domination especially for the Maccabi Tel-Aviv win. Spurs worked on their half court set for their last practice and my thoughts are Pops will play the basic Spurs solid "D" and patented half court game to win. Not sure about ATS, but no easy points today.

Maccabi Tel-Aviv/San Antonio
Under 191 at +106 for 2 units(W)

The Over money pushed the Total to 193! That was not Sharp money as the wager limit was too low for the Pro's.
1-0 +2.12 units

NBA Euro Tour

Ladies and gentlemen Basketball season is around the corner. NBA teams are getting ready for the season in Europe and Los Angeles Clippers are visiting Moscow.

Khimiki did not threaten the Clippers with all starters in double figures, but final score was 98-91 late charge came within 5 points. Cassell, Tim Thomas and Aaron Williams rested and they'll look for some play time against CSKA and I'm sure Dunleavy's thoughts are not primarily winning, but to observe different schemes, individual skills and to bring NBA entertainment as ambassadors it's still preseason. On the other side CSKA is a powerhouse local team with point guard Theodoros Papaloukas who shined in FIBA and can definitely give preseason Clippers a run for the money.

CSKA +2.5 at -109 for 1 unit(W)
The mark is on the money CSKA win SU.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Game #6. I sure hope we have game #7 in the making and that is the thought among NBA cappers. Players are on DAL money line with lots of juice.
I think Mavs try to take the ball out of Dwayne Wade's hands let the other Heats try to make the shot. Games are progressively getting physical I'll back the First Half and see what develops.

MIA/DAL First Half Under 95.5 at -124 for 2 units(L)
Games are not falling my way. 1 basket away from cashing this and Dirk drives and scores.

MIA 2nd Half +5 at +111 for 1 unit(W)
Wimped out on the 2nd half play, but I was hoping Mavs take it SU so it was a tough play for me. I should of stucked to my gun and wagered at least 2 units. Congrats to Heat and Miami, Miami for Series, Miami for NBA Champions backers, I know there's few of you guys out there.

1-1 -1.37 units

Well that's the end of NBA kinda feeling short changed, but that's the way the ball bounced. Mavs should of taken game #5 in Miami when they lost that game they changed the wagering cycle and players lost focus on how Wade adapted to Dallas, again the last night of NBA burns many good Cappers we all live and learn.

It has been fun and I be back to knock'em down in clutch fashion.

Line was moving to Heat and really tipped when Stackhouse suspention news broke out.
Dallas is still the play you know this one is going to zig zag.
Should be a good game. Fade the public here people.

DAL +2 at -105 for 3 units(W)
DAL ML at +121 for 1 unit(L)
Josh Howard killed the money line blowing the last time out in OT. ATS & ML improved closer to game time so Miami money was heavy. You know the public got massacred not only ATS, but on declining Under. What a bloody day in NBA.
1-1 +2.00 units

Game #4 in Miami. Looking back at game #3 Dallas was bit in cruise control lacking at the start & end. On the other side Heat was giving everything and they deserve that win, but can't be impressed with Heat just edging the Mavs and not covering ATS. Mavs showed higher level of play against the Spurs and Suns yet to be seen in this series. Dallas will be strong out of the gate with intensity. Wade is limping around. Heat will be playing from behind.

DAL +1 First Half at -105 for 2 units(L)
DAL ML First Half at +118 for 1 unit(L)

DAL +0.5 First Quarter at -109 for 2 units(L)
DAL ML First Quarter at +109 for 1 unit(L)
Not only was the tumble nasty I lost my second half posting.
I reversed to Miami +3.5 2nd Half at +111 and also took Total Under 194
in-game at +121 cancelling out any losses, but I apologize to viewers following the plays. Recording losses for published plays.
0-4 -6.28 units

The scoring has been rising over the first two games maybe more Dallas scoring, but this is the NBA championship series with Heat almost a no show in Dallas. The indication here is the 1st quarter total adjustment from 46.5 game #1 Over, 48 game #2 Under and today we have 47 adjusted to the middle. This game tells me the First Half will go Over 93.5 as Heat has been sliding from 2nd quarter on. If Miami can keep the energy up as they should in this situation the Total will exceed this number.

DAL/MIA First Half OVER 93.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)
DAL/MIA OVER 188 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Don't you love it when I'm hot.
2-0 +3.00 units

I'm looking forward to Sunday's game #2.
Look for defensive tone to play out once again.

MIA/DAL UNDER 190 at -123 for 2 units(W)

Sure glad I didn't wager sides cuz I liked Heat to cover ATS.
Under was the correct play.

1-0 +2.00 units

Hi gang.
I've been traveling all day doing the West coast to East coast thing and finally little time to relax. Didn't want to make a play short on time so I passed up a very nice Under. I'm sure everyone saw Dirk take over, but another turn of events was the Dallas defense getting the handle on Suns. I had the Suns team total to score over 99.5 points for game #5 and with score stuck at 98 points there was plenty of time, but Dallas almost shut them down below 100 points it was the last basket 3 pointer by Tim Thomas that made the score 101.
Should of published it, should of played it, should of would of could of.

I'll take this moment to grade my Western Conference wager made on May 20, 2006.

These are the selections I took.
LAC +900 for 1 unit(L)
DAL +258 for 2 units(W)

We are almost at the end of NBA lets finish it strong.
1-1 +4.16 units

Back to Miami for Game No#6.
Little added drama with Dwayne no show for the morning practice.
Nothing like over reaction to take the added edge.
Wade is playing tonight and far as being ineffective, I doubt that.
My guess is Dwayne called in before the practice and talked to Riley,
the conversation might of been something like this....
Dwayne: "Coach do you need me in this morning I feel a slight cold coming on"
Riley: "Are you good for the game tonight?"
Dwayne: "definitely"
Riley: "Get some rest and bring your game tonight alright?"
Dwayne: "You got it coach"

OK, I didn't listen in on the conversation, but it's not far off.

MIA 1st Quarter -1 at -106 for 3 units(W)
MIA 1st Half -2 at -105 for 2 units(W)

I guess Dwayne's feeling pretty sick, but that didn't stop Miami.
2-0 +5.00 units

I'll go with the Suns team total to score their average.
Are you guys watching this move? Suns at Mavs total has come down to a level not seen in this series. All the games coming in Under is driving the money flow to Under. But when the books move 5~6 points that's telling you something, (1) key player not playing (2) books correction which says they have been wrong with their previous numbers. Most of the time it's (1), but not the case today. Are the books admitting to their error? Did they set the bar too high ?
Or how about, books have a Over bias for today's match they feel the game total to exceed 210
that's where Pinnacle opened and it quickly took the Under money. Other books watched Pinny, BetCris and other early lines and just followed.
I want to see another blow for blow scoring game.

PHO TEAM TOTAL OVER 99.5 at -111 for 2 units(W)
PHO/DAL 1st Quarter Over 52.5 at -107 for 3 units(W)
PHO/DAL 1st Half Over 104 at -105 for 2 units(W)

Sometimes you feel like a nut, sometimes you don't.

3-0 +7.00 units

Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons.
This is a elimination game for Pistons at home.
Lets see if the past are any indication for the future.

Scores by Quarters:
Game 4 at Miami American Airlines Arena Monday 5/29:
DET: 17 21 22 18 = 78
MIA: 23 21 18 27 = 89
The big numbers for this game is Dwayne Wade 31 points and big portion of this number is free throws, 15 for 19 attempts. This free throw number inflates to 28 for 47 attempts by Miami so the beating could of been much worse for Detroit. Another differential is fast break points Detroit 2 Miami 11.
The dynamic dual of Wade and Shaq did most of the damage only Haslem is the third player with double digit points. Role players concentrated on defense holding Detroit to 39% shooting. No Detroit starting four scored over 15+ points.

Game 3 at Miami American Airlines Arena Saturday 5/27:
DET: 24 14 24 21 = 83
MIA: 26 23 25 24 = 98
Wire to wire Miami at home. Dwayne Wade 35 points, Shaq 27 points, role players Walker 11, Haslem 10. Domination in the paint Pistons 16 to Heat 50, board Pistons 27 to Heat 40. Detroit guards scored 51 combined points, but low post was all Miami and can't win games that way. Very noticeable on this game was Prince almost no-show.

Game 2 at Palace of Auburn Hills. Thursday, May 25 2006.
MIA: 12 25 19 32 = 88
DET: 25 23 22 22 = 92
Box score tells the story. Detroit came out red hot which was more about shutting down the opponent scoring their possession then pacing the rest of the game almost getting caught at the end, losing ATS. Wade and Shaq got their combined 53 points, Walker got 11 points, but forced a lot of bad shots taking 3 for 12 attempts and 1 for 7 from 3 point land. Role players took tough shots and didn't make many. Detroit starting four plus Big Ben did not give up the paint or rebounds, played balanced ball on both ends and got to the free throw line better than Heat.

Game 1 at Palace of Auburn Hills. Tuesday, May 23 2006.
MIA: 33 15 18 25 = 91
DET: 25 19 17 25 = 86
Interesting game on the part of rested Miami where role players exceeded the dynamic dual, with foul troubles, in performance and time on the floor.
Heat came out hot and paced the rest of the way saving Wade and Shaq the wear and tear. Heat shot the ball exceptionally well and controlled the low post.

Everybody likes Heat +6 ATS, Pinny opened at +7 moved to +6.5 and now +6, as Miami have taken all ATS and all Unders with Detroit in Conference finals. ATS has been steady with Detroit getting numbers due to elimination which is not a surprise, but Totals have been on the decline with each match up falling under 181.5 and this number is more about Detroit's inability to score consistently with the starting four, Billups, Rip, Rasheed and Prince, in higher percentage. The tempo is certainly what Pistons are use to and if' they're not giving up the paint or the board, which I don't expect for the elimination game, Detroit needs to feed Prince and Rasheed to execute and attack the basket not just Chauncy and Rip. I have a feeling Flip and Rasheed has worked out their differences for the good of the team. The zone defense Pistons used in the 3rd quarter of last game got them back in it for awhile, Flip says he'll be using it more, but Heat adjusted Wade took over and Miami scored 27 points in the 4th quarter.

So is the public correct in playing the momentum of Heat and the dynamic dual or Detroit due to make their stand at home possibly covering ATS? I like to see how this plays out too, but I'd say -6 to -7 is going to be very close maybe SU Pistons win no cover. Nothing I'd put my money on, but if Miami's going to win it it'll be in Miami Game 6.

My take is this. 2 units across.
Outcome prediction: 89-97 Detroit.

MIA/DET First Quarter 45.5 at -101 for 2 units(L)
(Priced at -101 waiting on even or better - never got better)
MIA/DET Fourth Quarter 45.5 at +105 for 2 units(L)

MIA/DET 1st Half Over 89 at -109 for 2 units(W)
(Priced at -125 with 1.5 points buy waiting on -120 or better)

MIA/DET Over 179.5 at -121 for 2 units(L)

Don't like the progress of this game. I'm reversing the Total for 2nd Half and taking Detroit to cover 2nd Half.

MIA/DET 2nd Half Under 90.5 +105 for 3 units(W)

DET 2nd Half -2.5 +100 for 3 units(W)

3-3 +1.71 units