NBA Finals Game II

MAGIC vs LAKERS
Lakers line on the move coming closer to game time and though -7 seems a bit much to a embarrassed Orlando team I will focus on Total for tonight. With edge to the Under and NBA Final scenario puts this at 202 which seems to be getting small money edge. I have seen the Under being touted everywhere and the trend screams out. I'm going to buck this trend and take the Over. This very suspicious Total has reverse outcome written all over and this number goes Over.

OVER 202 +101 for 1 unit(L)

Not a good idea to buck the trend, but I know this one had the Under backers sweating.
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA PLAYOFF CAVALIERS vs MAGIC

This game is a game where public persuasion has gone from Cleveland to Orlando. It's like you should of known all along of course Magic has the closers, Cavs don't match up well against Magic, Magics has Cavs number and had it all season long. Magic may have dropped the ball in Cleveland at the Q, but now their on their home court.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS +2 at +107 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA PLAYOFF LAKERS vs NUGGETS

Would you believe I had Cleveland -7.5 and OVER 191? Sweeping ATS and Total for Thursday? It just doesn't work when you don't have it published in a timely fashion. Hopefully I'm still see the right path. Everybody see the same game, but results from one game to the next is judged differently. Why? Because many are easily influenced by what occurred and what they heard from the announcers. Yes, Denver is playing good ball beyond where any media would have predicted. Yes, they are back at Pepsi with their back against the wall. Yes, Lakers have played half hearted games very capable of blowing it big. All true, Taking Lakers at the Moneyline.

LOS ANGELES +200 for 2 units(W)

Lakers baby 1-0 +4.00 units

NBA PLAYOFFS

Got miles to go before I sleep. No matter day or night, early or late, regardless of your life the game goes on. A wise man once told me never risk on a game based on match up, but base it on situation. Yes the first game was a surprise at the "Q", but giving up -9 does not justify against a team they have not covered all season. The other angle is the scoring will come down, if you agree the question is...from 213 will it come down below 188.5? that's 24.5 points less than where the game landed last time. The total set for the match is low with majority consensus on the Over. Line has moved very little perhaps still drawing the over, but the sharps have moved to the other side keeping the number at bay.

ORLANDO MAGIC +9(W)
TOTAL UNDER 188.5(L)

LBJ burns my UNDER with a miracle 3 point shot with a second left on the clock. Damn! on the cusp of sweeping side and total.

NBA Playoff Thursday

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2

Cavaliers at home are giving up -12.5 which is little more than 9.5 margin of wins and Hawks have shown ability to come back from big losses, but Cavs on a roll with killer instincts at home. I'll look for strong defensive showing once again to take this game again decisively.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -12.5 at -102 for 1 unit(W)

CLEVELAND/ATLANTA UNDER 89 FIRST HALF at -104 for 1 unit(L)

1-1 -0.04 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 31-34-1 +2.79 units

Uncanny Over implications for Utah and Denver at Pepsi Center. Jazz coming off a 21 point loss (15 ATS loss) at Portland in a crucial game. Easily eclipsed the 192 Total by 37 points. For Utah to give up 125 points on the road may seem out of the norm, but -118 in Phoenix, -94 in Oklahoma, -105 in Orlando and so on. This spot does call for better defensive number still the likelihood of exceeding triple digits are high. Denver has been over anticipated in exceeding the Total and the line makers are doing a very good job. They are confident with number close to what they set on March 6th in Utah. There are also 4 consecutive Unders recorded with one game in Denver. So despite expected decline from 229 for Jazz and Nuggets at neutral I will go with the Over 208.

UTA/DEN OVER 208 at +101 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.01 units

NBA Sunday

YTD 30-34-1 +1.78 units

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets

As the picture comes together in NBA and people continue to eye Cleveland, Los Angeles, Orlando... The aging team from South West will quietly stalk the top contenders. Spurs has strung 3 straight wins in a row. Coming into this game scoring 111 against the Clippers topping 100+ points in 3 wins. The 4th win for this team has been elusive at 6-12, but fundamentally their key Big Three are playing and road wins come 22-13. Hornets dropped 2 and missing Peja, Posey, Chandler they have not scored over 100+ since 3/11. Hornets 4-12 as underdog, 2-7 against winning teams in 2nd half of season.

SAN ANTONIO -1.5 -107 for 1 unit(L)

Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons
Understanding the implications for the Total to fall below is bit of a miss calculation at 184.5? I do see Detroit moving the pace increasing output and 76er should simulate the faster tempo. Maybe come closer to 200 point total.

OVER 184.5 at +100 for 1 unit(w)

Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers
Wizards on a back to back with Pacers road game. Agent Zero making his first game back is expected out on the second of back to back, but they looked confident as a team. A team that can score.

OVER 207 at -104 for 1 unit(W)

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
Have not published this play in a while, but this game has over +75% public on Road favorite Suns. The public play is to be faded or pass and I will take a position with late line move.

Kings +6 at +101 for 1 unit(W)

3-1 +1.94 units

NBA Saturday

YTD 28-33-1 -0.16 units

New York Knicks at Charlotte Bobcats.
This is the match up of great ATS teams. Forget their record look at what happens with the spread, NYK 41-30 & Cats 43-29. Cats are pretty good at home 20-17, 22-15 ATS, but outstanding 12-3 second half season against teams with losing record. Considering the risk Knicks are very good on the road 21-12 ATS and 7-2 getting 7 points on the road. With two good ATS teams playing taking the points make sense.

NEW YORK KNICKS +7 at -106 for 1 unit(L)

Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trailblazers
I really don't see Memphis covering at the Garden, but I'm going back to crunching the scoring Total. For all concerned this should be a scoring drop for both team and it should be tough reaching in the 180's.

MEM/POR UNDER 190 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz
Another game that will not reach. Jazz might drop this one at home, but defense and low post plays will be the key.

PHO/UTA UNDER 230 at +101 for 1 unit(W)

2-1 +1.94 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 28-32-1 +0.86 units

Today the line has swung widely towards the Lakers (56-14) best in the west. They are on a long road trip, but they are winning. Tonight at Detroit the Pistons are hurting and hurting they will play. It's always dangerous to underestimate your NBA opponent, but it's hard to think these Pistons have any chance or even cover. I will take the Over in this spot as offensive increase looks likely.
Even if Lakers defense limits Pistons I like the chance of Lakers offense making up the difference.

LAKERS/PISTONS OVER 193.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.02 units

NBA Monday

YTD 27-31-1 +0.82 units

Miami taking out Detroit at the Palace +7 underdog taking it SU going away. Heat at 100% just about had everyone in double figures and scored into triple figures. Miami looking good, aren't they? Memphis Grizzlies up next at home, Memphis losers of 4 in a row 1-3 ATS. They allowed triple digits to opponents 3 out of last 4. Looking very much like a no brain er. The problem with fading this 5-28 road team is they have covered 10 out of 28 road losses giving them 15-18 ATS record. In opposite Miami is very mediocre 16-19 home ATS. Miami playing 2nd of back to back with Wade coming off a 39 point output may get some breather here with B team getting added minutes. Also like the rising number. Keep in mind Grizzlies are playing improved ball in second half and they were embarrassed by Boston.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +9 at +105 for 1 unit(L)

A rare second game for late night action at the Valley of the Suns.
I know everyone loves the Suns at home and they are destroying their opponents, but Denver getting points here is just too tempting. Take it for what it is, a tightly contested match up, and I'll take the points on all these types of game.

DENVER NUGGETS +3.5 at +104 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.04 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 26-31-1 -0.18 units

Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks. This game has it's advantages in the Total where Mavs have compiled O/U 33-35 which is Road O/U 13-22. Hawks are O/U 16-21 as favorites 1-6 against Southwest 7-17 in non-conference game. All coming together after both teams played Over and recent game patterns suggest a drop in production.

DAL/ATL UNDER 196.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Wednesday

YTD 25-31-1 -1.27 units

NJ Nets at NY Knicks is the game that stuck out immediately. It was +7 for visiting Nets with money slightly more on Nets, but holding steady. The last game was NJ -5 which PUSHED and 3 previous meeting was 7 ~ 7.5 and NY has taken 4 out of last 6 with 1 push to direct this selection little further NJ comes to MSG logging 4 straight losses SU & ATS last one at Denver was 25 point blow out loss while NY comes winner of 4 straight ATS & 3 out of 4 SU bringing both teams back to the circle the same match up that took place 3/08 in New Jersey 101-106 loss for NY and ATS PUSH. So two teams that went in different direction meet again. Knicks have been playing well and given the balance better matched, but Nets haves managed to work the paint against these Knicks and compensated the lower FG%. NJ is much better road ATS team and NY similary good on the road, but not giving points at home. Taking the points and visiting Nets.

NJ NETS +7 at +109 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.09 units

NBA Saturday

YTD 24-31-1 -2.27 units

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
Going against the tired home team and taking San Antonio with points

SPURS +2.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Friday

YTD 24-30-1 -1.20 units

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors.
Dirk Nowitzki is putting the Mavs on his shoulders. Can the Big German haul this team through the Western swing? They have the momentum, but Warriors have their weapons back with Monta Ellis back in action.
There is an offensive expectation at O/U 224 which is reachable in a sense Dallas has exceeded +200 total 4 straight out of last 10 games and total doesn't go below 200 for the Warriors, but went Over in last 2 games both totals in 220's
I'm going against the Over and look for Dirk to keep it steady at the post.

DAL/GSW UNDER 224 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.07 units

NBA Saturday

YTD 24-29-1 -0.20 units

Orlando at Philadelphia
Powerful Magic team comes to town and line makers have this just about tight as you can put the Sixers at +1.5 slight home dogs. You figure the books are thinking Sixers have a good chance to beat the Magic outright at home.
I agree.

76ers +1.5 +100 for 1 unit(L)

Couldn't hold that lead!
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Tuesday

YTD 23-29-1 -1.28 units

Hello gang. Today I will follow Denver into Miami in what looks to be a tight contest. Miami Heat is D Wade & company which can hold their own especially in their home floor, but this Nuggets team is moving without much notice and they look the most dangerous. Denver Nuggets to take this away would not surprise me.

NUGGETS -1.5 at +108 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.08 units

NBA Monday

YTD 23-28-1 -0.23 units

Clippers at Bobcats.
What can you say about a team with it's flagship radio station, 710 ESPN, dumping them in the middle of their season. ESPN is promoting the Lakers coming next season. Marred with injuries there's not much fight in the "Play it Loud" campaign, but return of Randolph has been a impact. Sure the raining 3's are a bit of anomaly, but Randolphs inside threat gives the shooters open looks. Yes, this game is winnable for the home team who are thirsting for one and they have beat the Clippers before, but Gordon and Throton has grown with the battles and Randolph's making it interesting.

Clippers +2.5 for -105 for 1 unit(L)

What a no-show for B.Davis!
0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Tuesday

YTD 20-27-1 -2.25 units

Milwaukee Bucks at New Jersey Nets.
Like the Bucks getting points and keeping it close

MIL. BUCKS +4.5 at -105 units(L)
BUCKS/NETS UNDER 196 at 100 for 1 unit(W)

Toronto at Cleveland
Going against my underdog nature.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -10 at 103 for 1 unit(W)

BOSTON/76ERS OVER 191 at +102 for 1 unit(W)




3-1 +2.02 units

NBA Monday

YTD 19-27-1 -3.25 units

Looking to stop the slide tonight with L.A. Clippers at Miami Heat.
Haven't put this play down on blog, but its something I've been following for awhile and I'm riding the game Over.

CLIPPERS & HEAT OVER 191.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

Yeah it takes a total play to stop the slide.
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Saturday

YTD 18-26-1 -3.27 units

Somethings got to give with this continuing run of losers.
Utah Jazz at Portland Trailblazer.
I'm sure Blazers -9.5 suggests Jazz as the play for cover and normally I would invert the suggestions, but there has been too many of these.

UTAH JAZZ +9.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

This game total looks too high, but it's deceiving
NYK/IND OVER 226 at +107 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.02 units