Minnesota Timber wolves at Denver Nuggets
Everyone knows this is a bottom team against elite team match that opened at -16 for home team. Needless to say expected blow out. But you should be aware of dropping line and not so impressive Denver ATS. This match up also comes up on interesting sequence of Nuggets SU win NO COVER against NYK at home. Fading double digit favorite after a No Cover is not a bad idea. Wolves last game was a double digit blow out loss against PHO which should be a motivation on this game. Big loss at POR back in 11/11 inspired following game at DAL, ATS loss by only -1.5 and 11/21 loss followed by ATS COVER at LAC.
How about a Minnesota back door COVER.
TIMBER WOLVES +14.5(W)
No back door. How about a SU win going away. Yeah, I'm a bad man.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
NBA Wednesday
Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers.
This match up regardless of home court has trended UNDER for a long time. Some might consider it nature of this match up. However the odds makers have raised the bar to 183.5 a number not seen between these two teams since 190 high mark on 11/19/2008 that's 7 match ups ago. New era basketball and I'm going to buck this trend today. The low end Total below 190's are going OVER and Cavs have scored 100+ 4 out of last 5 road games. Detroit very capable of putting up 90's and I'll take the OVER.
OVER 184(W)
The UNDER nature is still there, but not this low.
This match up regardless of home court has trended UNDER for a long time. Some might consider it nature of this match up. However the odds makers have raised the bar to 183.5 a number not seen between these two teams since 190 high mark on 11/19/2008 that's 7 match ups ago. New era basketball and I'm going to buck this trend today. The low end Total below 190's are going OVER and Cavs have scored 100+ 4 out of last 5 road games. Detroit very capable of putting up 90's and I'll take the OVER.
OVER 184(W)
The UNDER nature is still there, but not this low.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
NBA Saturday
Points will cost premium.
My theme tonight for Detroit at Washington. Needless to say Saunder's first match up against Detroit since being let go will play a role. However the "Insiders" knowledge will not stand against the loss of 3 point guards. arenas playing with calf injury and Randy Foye sprained right ankle will be a game time decision. Detroit was able to dominate the Bobcats in last game, but considering the changes in these teams I'm not sure if Pistons will show their cohesiveness on the road. The nature of this game going Over in Washington has changed and you should not be deterred by the low number. My pick here is the Under 186.
UNDER 186 at -105 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.05 units
My theme tonight for Detroit at Washington. Needless to say Saunder's first match up against Detroit since being let go will play a role. However the "Insiders" knowledge will not stand against the loss of 3 point guards. arenas playing with calf injury and Randy Foye sprained right ankle will be a game time decision. Detroit was able to dominate the Bobcats in last game, but considering the changes in these teams I'm not sure if Pistons will show their cohesiveness on the road. The nature of this game going Over in Washington has changed and you should not be deterred by the low number. My pick here is the Under 186.
UNDER 186 at -105 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.05 units
Thursday, November 12, 2009
NBA Thursday
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers.
Wolrd Champion Lakers will take on the hot streaking Suns. I'm not sure if Suns will keep it on overdrive, but getting 8 points will get some backers. But 8 points have some meaning behind it like 7 games in 10 days or 4 in 5. That means too much Lakers at Staples Center
LAKEERS -8 at -104 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00
Wolrd Champion Lakers will take on the hot streaking Suns. I'm not sure if Suns will keep it on overdrive, but getting 8 points will get some backers. But 8 points have some meaning behind it like 7 games in 10 days or 4 in 5. That means too much Lakers at Staples Center
LAKEERS -8 at -104 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00
Monday, November 09, 2009
NBA Monday
Minnesota T-Wolves at Golden State Warriors.
Keep in mind Wolves and Warriors coming off double digit losing margin. Minnesota's second game giving up triple-teens plus this season. Warriors has not held any opponents below 100 and last game in Sacramento giving up 120 in regulation. That was the second most this season.
Assertion here is defensive number to improve and the rising total to be too lofty.
MIN/GSW UNDER 215 at -109 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.09 units
Keep in mind Wolves and Warriors coming off double digit losing margin. Minnesota's second game giving up triple-teens plus this season. Warriors has not held any opponents below 100 and last game in Sacramento giving up 120 in regulation. That was the second most this season.
Assertion here is defensive number to improve and the rising total to be too lofty.
MIN/GSW UNDER 215 at -109 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.09 units
Thursday, November 05, 2009
NBA Thursday
Spurs at Jazz. There's a sinking feeling in Salt Lake City and the wagering public can feel it. You know the play on San Antonio and Jazz has narrowed and in this situation you take the slumping home team.
UTAH JAZZ +1(W)
Finally a slam dunk!
UTAH JAZZ +1(W)
Finally a slam dunk!
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
NBA Tuesday
Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks.
This is a interesting match up with Dallas returning home after the stint with the two teams in L.A. Winning both and brimming with confidence. Meanwhile Jazz upset at home against the new look Houston. Also dropped the opener at Denver with the lone win coming against the Clipper. Although Mavs giving -6.5 points seems well in range for Mavs coming to form, but Jazz at this point is very dangerous. The blow from Houston at home is equal to a wake up call. My take is the Jazz to cover in Dallas.
UTAH JAZZ +6.5(L)
Late game Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trailblazers.
Seemingly low total looks awfully suspicious, but Hawks poised to put up score which will likely be matched by the home Blazers. That looks Over to me.
ATL/POR OVER 192(L)
Off to a bad start. It'll turn around.
This is a interesting match up with Dallas returning home after the stint with the two teams in L.A. Winning both and brimming with confidence. Meanwhile Jazz upset at home against the new look Houston. Also dropped the opener at Denver with the lone win coming against the Clipper. Although Mavs giving -6.5 points seems well in range for Mavs coming to form, but Jazz at this point is very dangerous. The blow from Houston at home is equal to a wake up call. My take is the Jazz to cover in Dallas.
UTAH JAZZ +6.5(L)
Late game Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trailblazers.
Seemingly low total looks awfully suspicious, but Hawks poised to put up score which will likely be matched by the home Blazers. That looks Over to me.
ATL/POR OVER 192(L)
Off to a bad start. It'll turn around.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
NBA 2009 ~ 2010 Bring on the Games
Let's get into. This is my first publishing for this season. I'm not doing season outlook or future plays. Not the first NBA wager, but here's one I'm putting on blog take on Lakers and Clippers match up at Staples Center in Los Angeles. Clips are playing healthy, well Griffin is out, and the number has been dropping since open. It's gone low as 200.5 and though the dip is likely this total is reachable.
OVER 201.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
Was not close, but long season to go 0-1 -1.10 units
OVER 201.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
Was not close, but long season to go 0-1 -1.10 units
Sunday, June 07, 2009
NBA Finals Game II
MAGIC vs LAKERS
Lakers line on the move coming closer to game time and though -7 seems a bit much to a embarrassed Orlando team I will focus on Total for tonight. With edge to the Under and NBA Final scenario puts this at 202 which seems to be getting small money edge. I have seen the Under being touted everywhere and the trend screams out. I'm going to buck this trend and take the Over. This very suspicious Total has reverse outcome written all over and this number goes Over.
OVER 202 +101 for 1 unit(L)
Not a good idea to buck the trend, but I know this one had the Under backers sweating.
0-1 -1.00 unit
Lakers line on the move coming closer to game time and though -7 seems a bit much to a embarrassed Orlando team I will focus on Total for tonight. With edge to the Under and NBA Final scenario puts this at 202 which seems to be getting small money edge. I have seen the Under being touted everywhere and the trend screams out. I'm going to buck this trend and take the Over. This very suspicious Total has reverse outcome written all over and this number goes Over.
OVER 202 +101 for 1 unit(L)
Not a good idea to buck the trend, but I know this one had the Under backers sweating.
0-1 -1.00 unit
Saturday, May 30, 2009
NBA PLAYOFF CAVALIERS vs MAGIC
This game is a game where public persuasion has gone from Cleveland to Orlando. It's like you should of known all along of course Magic has the closers, Cavs don't match up well against Magic, Magics has Cavs number and had it all season long. Magic may have dropped the ball in Cleveland at the Q, but now their on their home court.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS +2 at +107 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.00 unit
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS +2 at +107 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.00 unit
Thursday, May 28, 2009
NBA PLAYOFF LAKERS vs NUGGETS
Would you believe I had Cleveland -7.5 and OVER 191? Sweeping ATS and Total for Thursday? It just doesn't work when you don't have it published in a timely fashion. Hopefully I'm still see the right path. Everybody see the same game, but results from one game to the next is judged differently. Why? Because many are easily influenced by what occurred and what they heard from the announcers. Yes, Denver is playing good ball beyond where any media would have predicted. Yes, they are back at Pepsi with their back against the wall. Yes, Lakers have played half hearted games very capable of blowing it big. All true, Taking Lakers at the Moneyline.
LOS ANGELES +200 for 2 units(W)
Lakers baby 1-0 +4.00 units
LOS ANGELES +200 for 2 units(W)
Lakers baby 1-0 +4.00 units
Friday, May 22, 2009
NBA PLAYOFFS
Got miles to go before I sleep. No matter day or night, early or late, regardless of your life the game goes on. A wise man once told me never risk on a game based on match up, but base it on situation. Yes the first game was a surprise at the "Q", but giving up -9 does not justify against a team they have not covered all season. The other angle is the scoring will come down, if you agree the question is...from 213 will it come down below 188.5? that's 24.5 points less than where the game landed last time. The total set for the match is low with majority consensus on the Over. Line has moved very little perhaps still drawing the over, but the sharps have moved to the other side keeping the number at bay.
ORLANDO MAGIC +9(W)
TOTAL UNDER 188.5(L)
LBJ burns my UNDER with a miracle 3 point shot with a second left on the clock. Damn! on the cusp of sweeping side and total.
ORLANDO MAGIC +9(W)
TOTAL UNDER 188.5(L)
LBJ burns my UNDER with a miracle 3 point shot with a second left on the clock. Damn! on the cusp of sweeping side and total.
Thursday, May 07, 2009
NBA Playoff Thursday
Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2
Cavaliers at home are giving up -12.5 which is little more than 9.5 margin of wins and Hawks have shown ability to come back from big losses, but Cavs on a roll with killer instincts at home. I'll look for strong defensive showing once again to take this game again decisively.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -12.5 at -102 for 1 unit(W)
CLEVELAND/ATLANTA UNDER 89 FIRST HALF at -104 for 1 unit(L)
1-1 -0.04 units
Cavaliers at home are giving up -12.5 which is little more than 9.5 margin of wins and Hawks have shown ability to come back from big losses, but Cavs on a roll with killer instincts at home. I'll look for strong defensive showing once again to take this game again decisively.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -12.5 at -102 for 1 unit(W)
CLEVELAND/ATLANTA UNDER 89 FIRST HALF at -104 for 1 unit(L)
1-1 -0.04 units
Thursday, April 02, 2009
NBA Thursday
YTD 31-34-1 +2.79 units
Uncanny Over implications for Utah and Denver at Pepsi Center. Jazz coming off a 21 point loss (15 ATS loss) at Portland in a crucial game. Easily eclipsed the 192 Total by 37 points. For Utah to give up 125 points on the road may seem out of the norm, but -118 in Phoenix, -94 in Oklahoma, -105 in Orlando and so on. This spot does call for better defensive number still the likelihood of exceeding triple digits are high. Denver has been over anticipated in exceeding the Total and the line makers are doing a very good job. They are confident with number close to what they set on March 6th in Utah. There are also 4 consecutive Unders recorded with one game in Denver. So despite expected decline from 229 for Jazz and Nuggets at neutral I will go with the Over 208.
UTA/DEN OVER 208 at +101 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.01 units
Uncanny Over implications for Utah and Denver at Pepsi Center. Jazz coming off a 21 point loss (15 ATS loss) at Portland in a crucial game. Easily eclipsed the 192 Total by 37 points. For Utah to give up 125 points on the road may seem out of the norm, but -118 in Phoenix, -94 in Oklahoma, -105 in Orlando and so on. This spot does call for better defensive number still the likelihood of exceeding triple digits are high. Denver has been over anticipated in exceeding the Total and the line makers are doing a very good job. They are confident with number close to what they set on March 6th in Utah. There are also 4 consecutive Unders recorded with one game in Denver. So despite expected decline from 229 for Jazz and Nuggets at neutral I will go with the Over 208.
UTA/DEN OVER 208 at +101 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.01 units
Sunday, March 29, 2009
NBA Sunday
YTD 30-34-1 +1.78 units
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets
As the picture comes together in NBA and people continue to eye Cleveland, Los Angeles, Orlando... The aging team from South West will quietly stalk the top contenders. Spurs has strung 3 straight wins in a row. Coming into this game scoring 111 against the Clippers topping 100+ points in 3 wins. The 4th win for this team has been elusive at 6-12, but fundamentally their key Big Three are playing and road wins come 22-13. Hornets dropped 2 and missing Peja, Posey, Chandler they have not scored over 100+ since 3/11. Hornets 4-12 as underdog, 2-7 against winning teams in 2nd half of season.
SAN ANTONIO -1.5 -107 for 1 unit(L)
Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons
Understanding the implications for the Total to fall below is bit of a miss calculation at 184.5? I do see Detroit moving the pace increasing output and 76er should simulate the faster tempo. Maybe come closer to 200 point total.
OVER 184.5 at +100 for 1 unit(w)
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers
Wizards on a back to back with Pacers road game. Agent Zero making his first game back is expected out on the second of back to back, but they looked confident as a team. A team that can score.
OVER 207 at -104 for 1 unit(W)
Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
Have not published this play in a while, but this game has over +75% public on Road favorite Suns. The public play is to be faded or pass and I will take a position with late line move.
Kings +6 at +101 for 1 unit(W)
3-1 +1.94 units
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets
As the picture comes together in NBA and people continue to eye Cleveland, Los Angeles, Orlando... The aging team from South West will quietly stalk the top contenders. Spurs has strung 3 straight wins in a row. Coming into this game scoring 111 against the Clippers topping 100+ points in 3 wins. The 4th win for this team has been elusive at 6-12, but fundamentally their key Big Three are playing and road wins come 22-13. Hornets dropped 2 and missing Peja, Posey, Chandler they have not scored over 100+ since 3/11. Hornets 4-12 as underdog, 2-7 against winning teams in 2nd half of season.
SAN ANTONIO -1.5 -107 for 1 unit(L)
Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons
Understanding the implications for the Total to fall below is bit of a miss calculation at 184.5? I do see Detroit moving the pace increasing output and 76er should simulate the faster tempo. Maybe come closer to 200 point total.
OVER 184.5 at +100 for 1 unit(w)
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers
Wizards on a back to back with Pacers road game. Agent Zero making his first game back is expected out on the second of back to back, but they looked confident as a team. A team that can score.
OVER 207 at -104 for 1 unit(W)
Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
Have not published this play in a while, but this game has over +75% public on Road favorite Suns. The public play is to be faded or pass and I will take a position with late line move.
Kings +6 at +101 for 1 unit(W)
3-1 +1.94 units
Saturday, March 28, 2009
NBA Saturday
YTD 28-33-1 -0.16 units
New York Knicks at Charlotte Bobcats.
This is the match up of great ATS teams. Forget their record look at what happens with the spread, NYK 41-30 & Cats 43-29. Cats are pretty good at home 20-17, 22-15 ATS, but outstanding 12-3 second half season against teams with losing record. Considering the risk Knicks are very good on the road 21-12 ATS and 7-2 getting 7 points on the road. With two good ATS teams playing taking the points make sense.
NEW YORK KNICKS +7 at -106 for 1 unit(L)
Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trailblazers
I really don't see Memphis covering at the Garden, but I'm going back to crunching the scoring Total. For all concerned this should be a scoring drop for both team and it should be tough reaching in the 180's.
MEM/POR UNDER 190 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz
Another game that will not reach. Jazz might drop this one at home, but defense and low post plays will be the key.
PHO/UTA UNDER 230 at +101 for 1 unit(W)
2-1 +1.94 units
New York Knicks at Charlotte Bobcats.
This is the match up of great ATS teams. Forget their record look at what happens with the spread, NYK 41-30 & Cats 43-29. Cats are pretty good at home 20-17, 22-15 ATS, but outstanding 12-3 second half season against teams with losing record. Considering the risk Knicks are very good on the road 21-12 ATS and 7-2 getting 7 points on the road. With two good ATS teams playing taking the points make sense.
NEW YORK KNICKS +7 at -106 for 1 unit(L)
Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trailblazers
I really don't see Memphis covering at the Garden, but I'm going back to crunching the scoring Total. For all concerned this should be a scoring drop for both team and it should be tough reaching in the 180's.
MEM/POR UNDER 190 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz
Another game that will not reach. Jazz might drop this one at home, but defense and low post plays will be the key.
PHO/UTA UNDER 230 at +101 for 1 unit(W)
2-1 +1.94 units
Thursday, March 26, 2009
NBA Thursday
YTD 28-32-1 +0.86 units
Today the line has swung widely towards the Lakers (56-14) best in the west. They are on a long road trip, but they are winning. Tonight at Detroit the Pistons are hurting and hurting they will play. It's always dangerous to underestimate your NBA opponent, but it's hard to think these Pistons have any chance or even cover. I will take the Over in this spot as offensive increase looks likely.
Even if Lakers defense limits Pistons I like the chance of Lakers offense making up the difference.
LAKERS/PISTONS OVER 193.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.02 units
Today the line has swung widely towards the Lakers (56-14) best in the west. They are on a long road trip, but they are winning. Tonight at Detroit the Pistons are hurting and hurting they will play. It's always dangerous to underestimate your NBA opponent, but it's hard to think these Pistons have any chance or even cover. I will take the Over in this spot as offensive increase looks likely.
Even if Lakers defense limits Pistons I like the chance of Lakers offense making up the difference.
LAKERS/PISTONS OVER 193.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.02 units
Sunday, March 22, 2009
NBA Monday
YTD 27-31-1 +0.82 units
Miami taking out Detroit at the Palace +7 underdog taking it SU going away. Heat at 100% just about had everyone in double figures and scored into triple figures. Miami looking good, aren't they? Memphis Grizzlies up next at home, Memphis losers of 4 in a row 1-3 ATS. They allowed triple digits to opponents 3 out of last 4. Looking very much like a no brain er. The problem with fading this 5-28 road team is they have covered 10 out of 28 road losses giving them 15-18 ATS record. In opposite Miami is very mediocre 16-19 home ATS. Miami playing 2nd of back to back with Wade coming off a 39 point output may get some breather here with B team getting added minutes. Also like the rising number. Keep in mind Grizzlies are playing improved ball in second half and they were embarrassed by Boston.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +9 at +105 for 1 unit(L)
A rare second game for late night action at the Valley of the Suns.
I know everyone loves the Suns at home and they are destroying their opponents, but Denver getting points here is just too tempting. Take it for what it is, a tightly contested match up, and I'll take the points on all these types of game.
DENVER NUGGETS +3.5 at +104 for 1 unit(W)
1-1 +0.04 units
Miami taking out Detroit at the Palace +7 underdog taking it SU going away. Heat at 100% just about had everyone in double figures and scored into triple figures. Miami looking good, aren't they? Memphis Grizzlies up next at home, Memphis losers of 4 in a row 1-3 ATS. They allowed triple digits to opponents 3 out of last 4. Looking very much like a no brain er. The problem with fading this 5-28 road team is they have covered 10 out of 28 road losses giving them 15-18 ATS record. In opposite Miami is very mediocre 16-19 home ATS. Miami playing 2nd of back to back with Wade coming off a 39 point output may get some breather here with B team getting added minutes. Also like the rising number. Keep in mind Grizzlies are playing improved ball in second half and they were embarrassed by Boston.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +9 at +105 for 1 unit(L)
A rare second game for late night action at the Valley of the Suns.
I know everyone loves the Suns at home and they are destroying their opponents, but Denver getting points here is just too tempting. Take it for what it is, a tightly contested match up, and I'll take the points on all these types of game.
DENVER NUGGETS +3.5 at +104 for 1 unit(W)
1-1 +0.04 units
Thursday, March 19, 2009
NBA Thursday
YTD 26-31-1 -0.18 units
Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks. This game has it's advantages in the Total where Mavs have compiled O/U 33-35 which is Road O/U 13-22. Hawks are O/U 16-21 as favorites 1-6 against Southwest 7-17 in non-conference game. All coming together after both teams played Over and recent game patterns suggest a drop in production.
DAL/ATL UNDER 196.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit
Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks. This game has it's advantages in the Total where Mavs have compiled O/U 33-35 which is Road O/U 13-22. Hawks are O/U 16-21 as favorites 1-6 against Southwest 7-17 in non-conference game. All coming together after both teams played Over and recent game patterns suggest a drop in production.
DAL/ATL UNDER 196.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
NBA Wednesday
YTD 25-31-1 -1.27 units
NJ Nets at NY Knicks is the game that stuck out immediately. It was +7 for visiting Nets with money slightly more on Nets, but holding steady. The last game was NJ -5 which PUSHED and 3 previous meeting was 7 ~ 7.5 and NY has taken 4 out of last 6 with 1 push to direct this selection little further NJ comes to MSG logging 4 straight losses SU & ATS last one at Denver was 25 point blow out loss while NY comes winner of 4 straight ATS & 3 out of 4 SU bringing both teams back to the circle the same match up that took place 3/08 in New Jersey 101-106 loss for NY and ATS PUSH. So two teams that went in different direction meet again. Knicks have been playing well and given the balance better matched, but Nets haves managed to work the paint against these Knicks and compensated the lower FG%. NJ is much better road ATS team and NY similary good on the road, but not giving points at home. Taking the points and visiting Nets.
NJ NETS +7 at +109 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.09 units
NJ Nets at NY Knicks is the game that stuck out immediately. It was +7 for visiting Nets with money slightly more on Nets, but holding steady. The last game was NJ -5 which PUSHED and 3 previous meeting was 7 ~ 7.5 and NY has taken 4 out of last 6 with 1 push to direct this selection little further NJ comes to MSG logging 4 straight losses SU & ATS last one at Denver was 25 point blow out loss while NY comes winner of 4 straight ATS & 3 out of 4 SU bringing both teams back to the circle the same match up that took place 3/08 in New Jersey 101-106 loss for NY and ATS PUSH. So two teams that went in different direction meet again. Knicks have been playing well and given the balance better matched, but Nets haves managed to work the paint against these Knicks and compensated the lower FG%. NJ is much better road ATS team and NY similary good on the road, but not giving points at home. Taking the points and visiting Nets.
NJ NETS +7 at +109 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.09 units
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