Do not be alarmed. Published plays have failed 3 straight and it's sending back bad vibes. I'm not going to preach money management or advise something like Lakers ML laying the money. It doesn't work like that. The games fit certain criteria and wagers call for more specifics to come together. Many times the nature of the game is hiding in plain sight.
0-1 last play. 0-3 YTD
Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers
Here is a tight line where ATS & ML difference is 1 slight edge toward the visiting Nuggets playing second leg of back to back. Pacers have motivation as the last home loss was a game which Pacers held the lead going into the 4th quarter and losing by 2points. The game before that was a blow out loss at Philadelphia by 26 points which provided the wake up call. Can Pacers break out against the tired Nuggets? I'm going to say NO. Denver has played very well in the second leg so far this season and I expect the trend to stay it's course. Nuggets coming off a ATS Win (Push if you got +2) playing against poor offensive team with weaker scoring number at home this season.
DENVER -1 at -103 for 1 unit(L)
I have a rare second game with Detroit Pistons at Portland Trailblazers
Detroit looks like a team making progress and Blazer with Roy getting shut down in last game at Lakers. This line would seem just too big, but Blazer will redeem themselves at the Rose Garden where Pistons have done very little.
PORTLAND -10 at 103 for 2 units(W)
Stop loss at 0-4, but Nuggets pick sucked big time.
1-1 +1.03 units
Tuesday, November 09, 2010
Sunday, November 07, 2010
NBA Sunday
0-1 last play 0-2 YTD -2.02 units
Moving to Staple Center in Los Angeles were the defending champions will take on the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Lakers are undefeated, deep and looking stronger than last season. However understanding the strength is to know the pit falls. Play against the Lakers coming off a double digit home favorite loss playing a division opponent with winning record.
PORTLAND +7.5 at -103 for 1 unit(L)
Got killed on this play. Blazers decided not to show up!
Moving to Staple Center in Los Angeles were the defending champions will take on the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Lakers are undefeated, deep and looking stronger than last season. However understanding the strength is to know the pit falls. Play against the Lakers coming off a double digit home favorite loss playing a division opponent with winning record.
PORTLAND +7.5 at -103 for 1 unit(L)
Got killed on this play. Blazers decided not to show up!
Saturday, November 06, 2010
NBA Saturday
Toronto at Portland
Looking at this game in Portland, Rose Garden most will see Blazers redeeming their home loss to a opponent, Oklahoma. Who come into the Garden on a back to back night, after they were annihilated by the Lakers, and clawed back at the end to tie at regulation and snuffed out the Blazers in OT. That game was a SU loss as -5.5 home favorite and here is another team playing second leg of back to back. Again coming off a loss to the Lakers, though ATS cover, and getting big time numbers. If your first instinct was the Blazers, but hesitated with the spread it has moved down. Maybe it's got your attention? The number is still too big and it may swing back, but the take is on the Raptors second leg of back to back ATS. Blazers backers might have a better chance in the First Half, but see a back door cover. Take Raptors off a first leg ATS cover against a top contending team then playing a team with winning home record getting double digit points.
TORONTO RAPTORS +12 priced at -103 Matchbook.com(L)
Looked like it was on it's way, but close does not count!
Looking at this game in Portland, Rose Garden most will see Blazers redeeming their home loss to a opponent, Oklahoma. Who come into the Garden on a back to back night, after they were annihilated by the Lakers, and clawed back at the end to tie at regulation and snuffed out the Blazers in OT. That game was a SU loss as -5.5 home favorite and here is another team playing second leg of back to back. Again coming off a loss to the Lakers, though ATS cover, and getting big time numbers. If your first instinct was the Blazers, but hesitated with the spread it has moved down. Maybe it's got your attention? The number is still too big and it may swing back, but the take is on the Raptors second leg of back to back ATS. Blazers backers might have a better chance in the First Half, but see a back door cover. Take Raptors off a first leg ATS cover against a top contending team then playing a team with winning home record getting double digit points.
TORONTO RAPTORS +12 priced at -103 Matchbook.com(L)
Looked like it was on it's way, but close does not count!
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Opening Day 2010
PHX at POR
Suns visit the Rose Garden and opens this season with one of the lowest opening Total I can recall. Point down grade is understandable, but Nash still see the court as well as anyone in this league. Suns and Blazers both can run the pick and roll with the best. Looking for this game to go Over today's total.
OVER 201(L)
Suns visit the Rose Garden and opens this season with one of the lowest opening Total I can recall. Point down grade is understandable, but Nash still see the court as well as anyone in this league. Suns and Blazers both can run the pick and roll with the best. Looking for this game to go Over today's total.
OVER 201(L)
Monday, March 01, 2010
NBA Monday
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets
Most NBA fans and handicappers have an underlining understanding of coach Popovich's guidance towards post season and their need to improve on this road trip. It will test the Spurs against the likes of Cleveland and Orlando, but for tonight it the Hornets. Interestingly Hornets are getting better line with Tim Duncan getting rested on second of back to back. This may not be that bad as shown by the line movement, it's the play on team without their leading player, but considering no cover ATS on the first game and allowed opponents +109 points there's enough to play against the Spurs on the road. Hornets are mediocre this season barely .500 ATS coming off a no cover loss at Dallas. Nothing to write home about with home games either, but they are the better back to back team. 21-11 ATS against winning teams, 8-4 in second half. There are issues with assists, fast break points and 4 straight road losses which all gives more for the public to like Spurs. Go against no cover team as a favorite on second of back to back. Take the points with the home team.
HORNETS +3
Most NBA fans and handicappers have an underlining understanding of coach Popovich's guidance towards post season and their need to improve on this road trip. It will test the Spurs against the likes of Cleveland and Orlando, but for tonight it the Hornets. Interestingly Hornets are getting better line with Tim Duncan getting rested on second of back to back. This may not be that bad as shown by the line movement, it's the play on team without their leading player, but considering no cover ATS on the first game and allowed opponents +109 points there's enough to play against the Spurs on the road. Hornets are mediocre this season barely .500 ATS coming off a no cover loss at Dallas. Nothing to write home about with home games either, but they are the better back to back team. 21-11 ATS against winning teams, 8-4 in second half. There are issues with assists, fast break points and 4 straight road losses which all gives more for the public to like Spurs. Go against no cover team as a favorite on second of back to back. Take the points with the home team.
HORNETS +3
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
NBA Wednesday
Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Brewers.
Houston comes to Milwaukee on a back to back. Rockets fall against Jazz at home in the first leg. Sound loss after holding the Jazz 55 to 49 in the first half they were outscored 55-40 in the second. I see alternating schedule of road and home for Houston making the remaining February a tough ordeal for this team to endure. Bucks have been playing good defense lately getting a chance to notch closer to .500 at the expense of Rockets and this is a good chance. Bucks 19-4 ATS against poor defensive teams. 4-1 ATS as short home favorites. 2-0 after 3 or more days off.
BUCKS -5
Houston comes to Milwaukee on a back to back. Rockets fall against Jazz at home in the first leg. Sound loss after holding the Jazz 55 to 49 in the first half they were outscored 55-40 in the second. I see alternating schedule of road and home for Houston making the remaining February a tough ordeal for this team to endure. Bucks have been playing good defense lately getting a chance to notch closer to .500 at the expense of Rockets and this is a good chance. Bucks 19-4 ATS against poor defensive teams. 4-1 ATS as short home favorites. 2-0 after 3 or more days off.
BUCKS -5
Thursday, January 14, 2010
NBA Thursday
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics.
The Bulls crushed Pistons at home 1/11 120-87 easily covering -5.5 and this was step up game after SU win & -8.5 cover over Minnesota, again at home, but 2 losses away also covered getting 4 points at Milwaukee and 6.5 points at Charlotte. Making the ATS 4 wins in a row, 8-1 ATS last 9 and Chicago Bulls stock are suddenly hot item.
Boston last faced Chicago 12/12 106-80 Celtics win & cover -9.5 in United Center.
Celtics went wire to wire did not give up any quarter while holding the Bulls to under 33% shooting from the field and miserable 1 for 9 beyond the arc.
Despite the fact of embarrassing loss, recent surging Bulls play and K. Garnette & B. Wallace missing from line up. Bulls are poised to break their winning streak and lose ATS. They are very poor revenge team at 1-5, against Atlantic division teams 1-7 and coming off a peak game. This is also a spot to avenge a rare home loss Celtics suffered last home game. 1/11 Atlanta was a turn around blow losing 2 to the Hawks in 3 days. It must of left a bad taste for the C's because they went to NJ and killed the Nets.
Boston are not a good home cover team 11-5 SU has only covered 6-10 and they are alternating high score win than a loss however Chicago upside is limited where as Boston is under estimated at home. Take Boston give the points.
BOSTON CELTICS -6.5
The Bulls crushed Pistons at home 1/11 120-87 easily covering -5.5 and this was step up game after SU win & -8.5 cover over Minnesota, again at home, but 2 losses away also covered getting 4 points at Milwaukee and 6.5 points at Charlotte. Making the ATS 4 wins in a row, 8-1 ATS last 9 and Chicago Bulls stock are suddenly hot item.
Boston last faced Chicago 12/12 106-80 Celtics win & cover -9.5 in United Center.
Celtics went wire to wire did not give up any quarter while holding the Bulls to under 33% shooting from the field and miserable 1 for 9 beyond the arc.
Despite the fact of embarrassing loss, recent surging Bulls play and K. Garnette & B. Wallace missing from line up. Bulls are poised to break their winning streak and lose ATS. They are very poor revenge team at 1-5, against Atlantic division teams 1-7 and coming off a peak game. This is also a spot to avenge a rare home loss Celtics suffered last home game. 1/11 Atlanta was a turn around blow losing 2 to the Hawks in 3 days. It must of left a bad taste for the C's because they went to NJ and killed the Nets.
Boston are not a good home cover team 11-5 SU has only covered 6-10 and they are alternating high score win than a loss however Chicago upside is limited where as Boston is under estimated at home. Take Boston give the points.
BOSTON CELTICS -6.5
Monday, January 11, 2010
NBA Monday
Miami Heat at Utah Jazz
These two teams last met on December 23rd. Remember that game in Miami? It held some offensive promise, but the game unfolded in snails pace with decisive 3rd quarter by home team Miami ending in 70-80. That was the 5th and final road game for Jazz where D. Williams blamed the loss to their defensive laps. Whatever it was Miami took down Utah for the 4th time in a row.
Miami is the nemesis to Utah winning 11 out of 12 meets. Today Miami Heat are the road team and they have lost 5 out of last 7 games. The last game against Clippers at L.A. 94-84 loss Heat shot below 40% and could not recover from early deficit. Wade sat out the last 8 min. 21 sec. in a look-ahead move for second of back to back.
The Jazz men last played 1/09 @DAL where they caught the Mavs on second of back to back after the incredible rally at San Antonio. Jazz winning in Dallas 111-93 up to that point they were struggling with 4 losses out of 5 and forced to play Williams who was nursing a injured wrist. Jazz are tough at home 13-6 SU & 12-7 ATS and coming off high scoring games are 10-3.
I'm looking for higher production from Miami today and maybe Jazz score doesn't reach 111, but Miami has allowed +100 points in 4 out of last 6 games. Catching the declining Total and taking this Over.
OVER 194(W)
Sweet and Easy.
These two teams last met on December 23rd. Remember that game in Miami? It held some offensive promise, but the game unfolded in snails pace with decisive 3rd quarter by home team Miami ending in 70-80. That was the 5th and final road game for Jazz where D. Williams blamed the loss to their defensive laps. Whatever it was Miami took down Utah for the 4th time in a row.
Miami is the nemesis to Utah winning 11 out of 12 meets. Today Miami Heat are the road team and they have lost 5 out of last 7 games. The last game against Clippers at L.A. 94-84 loss Heat shot below 40% and could not recover from early deficit. Wade sat out the last 8 min. 21 sec. in a look-ahead move for second of back to back.
The Jazz men last played 1/09 @DAL where they caught the Mavs on second of back to back after the incredible rally at San Antonio. Jazz winning in Dallas 111-93 up to that point they were struggling with 4 losses out of 5 and forced to play Williams who was nursing a injured wrist. Jazz are tough at home 13-6 SU & 12-7 ATS and coming off high scoring games are 10-3.
I'm looking for higher production from Miami today and maybe Jazz score doesn't reach 111, but Miami has allowed +100 points in 4 out of last 6 games. Catching the declining Total and taking this Over.
OVER 194(W)
Sweet and Easy.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
NBA Sunday
New Jersey Nets at San Antonio Spurs.
Nets got a ATS cover on the road at New Orleans. That game Nets got off to a usual slow start, but dropped in 27 points in last 3 quarters and kept it close enough to easily cover with 9.5 points exceeding their offensive average by 10 points. Considering road games points allowed, 1/06 @ATL 119 points, 12/18 @TOR 118 points, 12/13 @ATL 130 and so on counting from late November road games Nets allowing +99 points is 10 out of 11. Last game effort not seen since 12/15 @Cleveland and it was also their best offensive effort getting to 99 points. Nets have exceeded +99 points on the road 3 out of 15. So in New Jersey standard a very good game. Which to me spells regression at San Antonio. Spurs lose to Dallas at home in a game where Spurs held advantage for 3 quarters and than gave up 42 points to Dallas in the 4th, whopping 50 points allowed in the paint at home. What do you think will happen to the next team stepping into AT&T Center? Enter Nets getting 14 points. NJN 2-9 as dogs with +10 points, 6-11 ATS after a OVER win, 5-13 against teams above .500 and that's my take.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS -13.5(L)
New Jersey cover by 1.5 points.
Late Game in the West.
Bucks at Lakers
Similar scenario as with Nets@Spurs. Lakers with 2 disappointing games and Bucks with Win no cover at home. That ATS loss comes in closing minutes as Bulls closed the gap. This game will take Sides and Total. Lakers playing cold, but defense is still active. The Total has risen all day and we will go against the inflated number. I see L.A. hungry for a big win. Can we cover this big number? Again the number tells me to look for Lakers to come back at Staples Center.
LAKERS -9.5(W)
UNDER 196(W)
L.O got the points, but watch out Koby's finger is definately bothering him and he is dead cold. Michael Redd buckled his knee making their road trip much tougher.
Nets got a ATS cover on the road at New Orleans. That game Nets got off to a usual slow start, but dropped in 27 points in last 3 quarters and kept it close enough to easily cover with 9.5 points exceeding their offensive average by 10 points. Considering road games points allowed, 1/06 @ATL 119 points, 12/18 @TOR 118 points, 12/13 @ATL 130 and so on counting from late November road games Nets allowing +99 points is 10 out of 11. Last game effort not seen since 12/15 @Cleveland and it was also their best offensive effort getting to 99 points. Nets have exceeded +99 points on the road 3 out of 15. So in New Jersey standard a very good game. Which to me spells regression at San Antonio. Spurs lose to Dallas at home in a game where Spurs held advantage for 3 quarters and than gave up 42 points to Dallas in the 4th, whopping 50 points allowed in the paint at home. What do you think will happen to the next team stepping into AT&T Center? Enter Nets getting 14 points. NJN 2-9 as dogs with +10 points, 6-11 ATS after a OVER win, 5-13 against teams above .500 and that's my take.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS -13.5(L)
New Jersey cover by 1.5 points.
Late Game in the West.
Bucks at Lakers
Similar scenario as with Nets@Spurs. Lakers with 2 disappointing games and Bucks with Win no cover at home. That ATS loss comes in closing minutes as Bulls closed the gap. This game will take Sides and Total. Lakers playing cold, but defense is still active. The Total has risen all day and we will go against the inflated number. I see L.A. hungry for a big win. Can we cover this big number? Again the number tells me to look for Lakers to come back at Staples Center.
LAKERS -9.5(W)
UNDER 196(W)
L.O got the points, but watch out Koby's finger is definately bothering him and he is dead cold. Michael Redd buckled his knee making their road trip much tougher.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
NBA Saturday
Minnesota Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls.
Bulls are giving -8.5 at home and that is a big number. Chicago on recent 6-1 ATS run made a huge rally to cover yesterday at Milwaukee making it 2 covers in a row away. Bulls stock maybe on the rise, but they are 6 games below .500 and of the 11 times they have been favored the record is 4-7, out of the 11 games they gave -6.5 or higher 4 times resulting in 1-3. Coming into 2nd leg of back to back Bulls are 1-6 making today's road dog a popular take. Minnesota 9-8 ATS away and 5-4 ATS back to back is not exactly a slam dunk. Even with the thought of Bulls giving too much I feel Grizzlies are coming off a peak game, 116-109 SU & ATS cover, similar to match 12/18 home win against Kings 112-96 where they promptly lost the following game at Boston getting 13.5 points. This ATS is holding steady and I'm fading Minnesota to buck the Chicago trend.
CHICAGO BULLS -8.5 at -103(W)
Right on money!
Bulls are giving -8.5 at home and that is a big number. Chicago on recent 6-1 ATS run made a huge rally to cover yesterday at Milwaukee making it 2 covers in a row away. Bulls stock maybe on the rise, but they are 6 games below .500 and of the 11 times they have been favored the record is 4-7, out of the 11 games they gave -6.5 or higher 4 times resulting in 1-3. Coming into 2nd leg of back to back Bulls are 1-6 making today's road dog a popular take. Minnesota 9-8 ATS away and 5-4 ATS back to back is not exactly a slam dunk. Even with the thought of Bulls giving too much I feel Grizzlies are coming off a peak game, 116-109 SU & ATS cover, similar to match 12/18 home win against Kings 112-96 where they promptly lost the following game at Boston getting 13.5 points. This ATS is holding steady and I'm fading Minnesota to buck the Chicago trend.
CHICAGO BULLS -8.5 at -103(W)
Right on money!
Friday, January 08, 2010
NBA Friday
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors.
Expectation for high scoring shoot'em up game is high. But I look for expanding ATS to favor the visiting Kings who have disappointed in recent games. Kings loss margin with spread is very close and Warriors win margin has exceeded winning SU as a underdog allowing 2nd fewest points in past 10 games. Look for Kings to play strong in this spot.
SACRAMENTO KINGS +4.5(L)
What a blow! Kings had this in their grasp and let it get away.
Expectation for high scoring shoot'em up game is high. But I look for expanding ATS to favor the visiting Kings who have disappointed in recent games. Kings loss margin with spread is very close and Warriors win margin has exceeded winning SU as a underdog allowing 2nd fewest points in past 10 games. Look for Kings to play strong in this spot.
SACRAMENTO KINGS +4.5(L)
What a blow! Kings had this in their grasp and let it get away.
Tuesday, January 05, 2010
NBA Tuesday
Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks
Mavs are one of those teams I advise as a over estimated team. They very much are a poor cover team that should be looked at carefully. On this day Dallas return from L.A. where they were schooled by the Lakers to face the woeful Pistons. Detroit where the long drought has failed to produce winning sign will receive one of the hefty spread on board tonight. +9 is a number you'll need to search through Dallas calender to see this margin win. Yet it'll be a public spot to back the Mavs and they may get this one. I'll take the early round on First Half.
DALLAS MAVERICKS FIRST HALF -5(L)
2nd Play:
Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings.
Kings have lost 3 in a row and Suns come to Arco with impressive record against the Kings. Suns 8-10 SU and .500 ATS is not a good bet on the road. They are giving up score to opponent at alarming rate and though they are winning against division foes they are failing to cover. Kings are very good 12-5 against poor defensive teams, 6-2 with 2 days rest and Total above 210 is 6-3. Kings are covering 3-1 at Arco and that's late night play.
SACRAMENTO KINGS +3(L)
Mavs are one of those teams I advise as a over estimated team. They very much are a poor cover team that should be looked at carefully. On this day Dallas return from L.A. where they were schooled by the Lakers to face the woeful Pistons. Detroit where the long drought has failed to produce winning sign will receive one of the hefty spread on board tonight. +9 is a number you'll need to search through Dallas calender to see this margin win. Yet it'll be a public spot to back the Mavs and they may get this one. I'll take the early round on First Half.
DALLAS MAVERICKS FIRST HALF -5(L)
2nd Play:
Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings.
Kings have lost 3 in a row and Suns come to Arco with impressive record against the Kings. Suns 8-10 SU and .500 ATS is not a good bet on the road. They are giving up score to opponent at alarming rate and though they are winning against division foes they are failing to cover. Kings are very good 12-5 against poor defensive teams, 6-2 with 2 days rest and Total above 210 is 6-3. Kings are covering 3-1 at Arco and that's late night play.
SACRAMENTO KINGS +3(L)
Monday, January 04, 2010
NBA Monday
Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls. The Bulls are playing good ball with Rose leading the way. There's also some dominance by Bulls 5-1 over past 6 match ups. Bulls also on a roll 4 wins in a row and last game SU win against a top contender Orlando Magic. I think they disappoint against Thunder playing very competitive ball yet going under the radar. Not only are they above .500 they exceed with better ATS record. Thunder was rolling too with 5 wins in a row only to drop the OT game. I still see love for the Bulls and this game might be worth waiting on.
Oklahoma +2.5(W)
Oklahoma +2.5(W)
Sunday, January 03, 2010
NBA Sunday
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
Pacers comes to MSG as a +9.5 underdog playing double back to back with 2 days off in between. They have exceeded the century mark twice in a row, 12/30 losing to Memphis and 1/02 winning against Minnesota. Counting 6 games back Indiana defense has allowed +99 points climbing through 12/30 giving 121 points and on 1/02 dropped back 10 points, but scored 122 points. Combined occurance of defensive score allowed with 2 recent high scoring games have raised the Total, but scoring is likely to drop here. NYK went Over 2 games in a row after stringing 8 Unders and last game at Atlanta was regulation Under that went Over due to OT.
This game similar to my last pick trends Under for both teams away and home.
UNDER 208(L)
Knicks had too much fire power!
Pacers comes to MSG as a +9.5 underdog playing double back to back with 2 days off in between. They have exceeded the century mark twice in a row, 12/30 losing to Memphis and 1/02 winning against Minnesota. Counting 6 games back Indiana defense has allowed +99 points climbing through 12/30 giving 121 points and on 1/02 dropped back 10 points, but scored 122 points. Combined occurance of defensive score allowed with 2 recent high scoring games have raised the Total, but scoring is likely to drop here. NYK went Over 2 games in a row after stringing 8 Unders and last game at Atlanta was regulation Under that went Over due to OT.
This game similar to my last pick trends Under for both teams away and home.
UNDER 208(L)
Knicks had too much fire power!
Saturday, January 02, 2010
NBA Saturday
Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls.
Let's go to the United Center and get the hell out of the cold. I'm sure Bulls are feeling little cozy reeling off 3 wins in a row, but Orlando has dominated the Bulls to the tune of 8-1 going back to 2007. Magic on first set of double back to back coming off declining scoring looking for this one to stay low. Bulls also playing above their average scoring. Home and away O/U are also extremely Under. That's what I'll play.
UNDER 194(PUSH)
Hope you guys got 194 and not below.
Let's go to the United Center and get the hell out of the cold. I'm sure Bulls are feeling little cozy reeling off 3 wins in a row, but Orlando has dominated the Bulls to the tune of 8-1 going back to 2007. Magic on first set of double back to back coming off declining scoring looking for this one to stay low. Bulls also playing above their average scoring. Home and away O/U are also extremely Under. That's what I'll play.
UNDER 194(PUSH)
Hope you guys got 194 and not below.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
NBA NEW YEARS EVE
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets.
I was looking at Dallas games the two past games 12/26 & 12/27 to be specific. Two consecutive games where Mavs cracked the century scoring mark, first game Total exceeding +200 and second landing on 200, and thought about this one falling below 200. What do you know? This game Total sitting on 198.5~199 moving up from 197. Looking at Houston coming off a game scoring 108 and giving up 100 which is a rarity in regulation that's happened 3 times (scoring and allowing triple digits) in December. That's normally followed with drop in score. The last time these two teams met, 12/18 @Dallas 100-100 regulation 116-108 O.T. win and cover by Houston, was also an unlikely Over with 62 points scored in 4th quarter. So why would you not take UNDER 199? Because there's not enough room in Texas and divisional games are fought basket for basket. Mavs averaging 103 in this spot & giving up 100. Rockets are 102 offense and 105 defense making Over the play. There's movement swinging both ways so key in entry point you might consider breaking up position for cost averaging.
OVER 100 First Half (W)
I was looking at Dallas games the two past games 12/26 & 12/27 to be specific. Two consecutive games where Mavs cracked the century scoring mark, first game Total exceeding +200 and second landing on 200, and thought about this one falling below 200. What do you know? This game Total sitting on 198.5~199 moving up from 197. Looking at Houston coming off a game scoring 108 and giving up 100 which is a rarity in regulation that's happened 3 times (scoring and allowing triple digits) in December. That's normally followed with drop in score. The last time these two teams met, 12/18 @Dallas 100-100 regulation 116-108 O.T. win and cover by Houston, was also an unlikely Over with 62 points scored in 4th quarter. So why would you not take UNDER 199? Because there's not enough room in Texas and divisional games are fought basket for basket. Mavs averaging 103 in this spot & giving up 100. Rockets are 102 offense and 105 defense making Over the play. There's movement swinging both ways so key in entry point you might consider breaking up position for cost averaging.
OVER 100 First Half (W)
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
NBA Wednesday
Charlotte Bobcats at Toronto Raptors.
The similarity shared by these two teams are the home court advantage and road disadvantage. Which in simplest term means Raps win at home. Here's where it get tricky. Raps 10-5 at home only failed to cover once, 12/8 giving up -7.5 to Minny and last home loss 12/11 to Atlanta going 6-1 in December at home, 5-2 ATS, pretty solid. Compared to Cats played six December road games perfect 0-6 giving Toronto enough to get the public nod making the Bobs somewhat of underestimated foes. Toronto also took a bad beat last time these two teams met in Charlotte so you think Raps will have payback in mind coming in with 4 wins in a row. But all those good thoughts are suspect. Raps revenging games are 8-11 ATS, against South East opponents 2-8 ATS and overall 50% in December games. Charlotte 11-3 ATS against sub .500 teams, 10-2 against teams allowing +99 points. Doesn't Charlotte have a chance to be the 3rd team to beat Raptors in December at home? Maybe maybe not, but I'll take the points and look for the Cats to keep it fairly close.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +6(W)
Cover baby!
The similarity shared by these two teams are the home court advantage and road disadvantage. Which in simplest term means Raps win at home. Here's where it get tricky. Raps 10-5 at home only failed to cover once, 12/8 giving up -7.5 to Minny and last home loss 12/11 to Atlanta going 6-1 in December at home, 5-2 ATS, pretty solid. Compared to Cats played six December road games perfect 0-6 giving Toronto enough to get the public nod making the Bobs somewhat of underestimated foes. Toronto also took a bad beat last time these two teams met in Charlotte so you think Raps will have payback in mind coming in with 4 wins in a row. But all those good thoughts are suspect. Raps revenging games are 8-11 ATS, against South East opponents 2-8 ATS and overall 50% in December games. Charlotte 11-3 ATS against sub .500 teams, 10-2 against teams allowing +99 points. Doesn't Charlotte have a chance to be the 3rd team to beat Raptors in December at home? Maybe maybe not, but I'll take the points and look for the Cats to keep it fairly close.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +6(W)
Cover baby!
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
NBA Tuesday
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers.
If you feel Lakers are a bit uninspired I can't blame you they failed to cover 3 out of last 4 and Phoenix wire to wire, did not lose any quarter. It wasn't Lakers scoring it was defense. So will they clamp it down against the Warriors? Golden State is on second leg of back to back beating the mighty Celtics and they have to be pumped for the Lakers. I think the Total will remain high and the number is retreating the wrong way.
OVER 217.5(W)
There was no doubt
If you feel Lakers are a bit uninspired I can't blame you they failed to cover 3 out of last 4 and Phoenix wire to wire, did not lose any quarter. It wasn't Lakers scoring it was defense. So will they clamp it down against the Warriors? Golden State is on second leg of back to back beating the mighty Celtics and they have to be pumped for the Lakers. I think the Total will remain high and the number is retreating the wrong way.
OVER 217.5(W)
There was no doubt
Sunday, December 27, 2009
NBA Sunday
Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers.
Celtics are one of those teams with odds makers making good spread adjustments keeping them just below .500 ATS. That's a team with 23-5 record to 13-15 ATS ratio which means they've dropped 10 games giving points. Within the last 10 games played they failed to cover 4 and one was SU & ATS making them 50%.
Clippers are sub .500 team with ATS slightly worse. Spread is not helping and makes them a good fade candidate. Effort has been lacking in situational spots and Clips will face one of the best road team in NBA.
ATS has been widening and this game cones on heels of Boston beating Magic in Orlando by 9 points, 14.5 ATS, compared to Clippers loss by 31 points, 21 ATS, which is a good spot for Los Angeles. Let's look for climbing ATS to help the home team.
Clippers +8.5(W)
Didn't need no points
Celtics are one of those teams with odds makers making good spread adjustments keeping them just below .500 ATS. That's a team with 23-5 record to 13-15 ATS ratio which means they've dropped 10 games giving points. Within the last 10 games played they failed to cover 4 and one was SU & ATS making them 50%.
Clippers are sub .500 team with ATS slightly worse. Spread is not helping and makes them a good fade candidate. Effort has been lacking in situational spots and Clips will face one of the best road team in NBA.
ATS has been widening and this game cones on heels of Boston beating Magic in Orlando by 9 points, 14.5 ATS, compared to Clippers loss by 31 points, 21 ATS, which is a good spot for Los Angeles. Let's look for climbing ATS to help the home team.
Clippers +8.5(W)
Didn't need no points
Saturday, December 26, 2009
NBA Post Christmas Saturday
Sup everyone. Did the Christmas thing and now it's back to business.
Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz.
Good team bad team scenario again. What you want to watch in this spot is Sixers narrowing margin against ATS. Currently it's going more or less sideways. On Philly's winning games it comes off single possession difference margin of 2 or 3. That type of game has been followed by very good effort, that is not the case today. Jazz coming off a bad beat is ready to rock the rim. Let's go with Utah back in Salt Lake city.
UTAH JAZZ -7(W)
Keep on keeping on!
Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz.
Good team bad team scenario again. What you want to watch in this spot is Sixers narrowing margin against ATS. Currently it's going more or less sideways. On Philly's winning games it comes off single possession difference margin of 2 or 3. That type of game has been followed by very good effort, that is not the case today. Jazz coming off a bad beat is ready to rock the rim. Let's go with Utah back in Salt Lake city.
UTAH JAZZ -7(W)
Keep on keeping on!
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