Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
Both of these teams leading to this point shows steadily declining TOTAL. It started for 76ers around 175 then 176 for the first two games against Chicago from there the remaining games to 172 then 170. Also similar for Boston and here we are tonight at 169.5 Taking this Total OVER in this low scoring match up.
Celtics and 76ers have tendencies to score OVER against a good defensive team.
76ERS at CELTICS OVER 169.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
Told ya it's too low!
Saturday, May 12, 2012
Thursday, May 10, 2012
NBA Playoff Thursday
Feeling a bit on the hard court since my home town Lakers and Clippers are in the hunt.
Lakers at Nuggets (3-2)
Lakers coulda, shoulda, put that last game into OT, but 2 good looks and no cigar so we go to game 6 back to Pepsi Center. You know L.A. & Denver match up have been going UNDER, but line's been adjusting from the number just above 200's down to mid 190's.
Lakers 10-2 Over after a loss as a favorite.
L.A./DENVER OVER 197.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)
Yes sir! I also have Denver to win series at +500 which I will off load on Lakers for the lock!
Lakers at Nuggets (3-2)
Lakers coulda, shoulda, put that last game into OT, but 2 good looks and no cigar so we go to game 6 back to Pepsi Center. You know L.A. & Denver match up have been going UNDER, but line's been adjusting from the number just above 200's down to mid 190's.
Lakers 10-2 Over after a loss as a favorite.
L.A./DENVER OVER 197.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)
Yes sir! I also have Denver to win series at +500 which I will off load on Lakers for the lock!
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
NBA Tuesday
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
I like the way Suns are playing right now. They have slightly better record ATS then SU overall and at home the ATS and SU record is 14-11-1 & 15-10. Phoenix have impressive 8-2 ATS last 10 games and even went 3 for 3 on back to back to back games. All that and getting points at home. It was +2 now it's +1.5 which I don't think will deter any Suns backers, but I feel the line has moved in the wrong direction. Taking the Spurs on the road. On the first leg of the road trip seems to be a charm for the good old Spurs.
San Antonio Spurs -1.5
I like the way Suns are playing right now. They have slightly better record ATS then SU overall and at home the ATS and SU record is 14-11-1 & 15-10. Phoenix have impressive 8-2 ATS last 10 games and even went 3 for 3 on back to back to back games. All that and getting points at home. It was +2 now it's +1.5 which I don't think will deter any Suns backers, but I feel the line has moved in the wrong direction. Taking the Spurs on the road. On the first leg of the road trip seems to be a charm for the good old Spurs.
San Antonio Spurs -1.5
Sunday, March 25, 2012
NBA Sunday
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers despite their offensive turn around are still one of the worst ATS team to back and I feel this still applies here with Lakers back at home and playoff in sight. Take the Grizzlies with points as this team returns to full strength.
Grizzlies +6.5(W)
Lakers despite their offensive turn around are still one of the worst ATS team to back and I feel this still applies here with Lakers back at home and playoff in sight. Take the Grizzlies with points as this team returns to full strength.
Grizzlies +6.5(W)
Friday, March 23, 2012
NBA Friday
On this Friday's game I choose Phoenix at Indiana.
I think it's a good ATS match up, but the line is moving against Indiana which is of course favored at home. It's come down to -3.5 now. Despite Suns winning ways of last 10 games the consensus clearly likes the Pacers. Play against the grain as Suns surge combined with points as the Suns have a very good chance to take this straight up going away.
SUNS +3.5 (W)
I think it's a good ATS match up, but the line is moving against Indiana which is of course favored at home. It's come down to -3.5 now. Despite Suns winning ways of last 10 games the consensus clearly likes the Pacers. Play against the grain as Suns surge combined with points as the Suns have a very good chance to take this straight up going away.
SUNS +3.5 (W)
Friday, March 16, 2012
NBA Friday
It's been over a month since my mother passed away. I've been off line for awhile and though March Madness fever is all around I feel very little luster these days. Her stuff still littered all around, I've been chipping away at it, there's so much to clean. In one of my moment of sigh I noticed Bucks playing at Golden State in tonight's late match up. I have a angle here.
Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors
What this game hold is a test of threshold, OVER threshold, which has been on a impressive run. Especially for the Bucks which I don't need to remind many of you was one of the top UNDER team from last year. Current run of OVER for the Bucks 28-14-1 one of the best in the league. Bring them to the Oracle Arena where the Warriors are exceeding their season average, offense and giving up points on defense, get yourselves another OVER type game. However this number has moved all over from 206 to 210 now 208.5 and this is a number to go UNDER. Look for the game to adjust after both teams played triple digit offense & defense respectively with match up showing high TOTAL relevant to each teams average total for this season.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 208.5(L)
Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors
What this game hold is a test of threshold, OVER threshold, which has been on a impressive run. Especially for the Bucks which I don't need to remind many of you was one of the top UNDER team from last year. Current run of OVER for the Bucks 28-14-1 one of the best in the league. Bring them to the Oracle Arena where the Warriors are exceeding their season average, offense and giving up points on defense, get yourselves another OVER type game. However this number has moved all over from 206 to 210 now 208.5 and this is a number to go UNDER. Look for the game to adjust after both teams played triple digit offense & defense respectively with match up showing high TOTAL relevant to each teams average total for this season.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 208.5(L)
Monday, January 16, 2012
NBA Monday Night
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers
Low Total for this match up at 181.5, which is at it's lowest since opening at 183, does give expectation to high caliber team playing championship level defense. That and the strong UNDER trend both teams are racking up, but 2 UNDER's don't always add up to more UNDER. The value comes on the OVER at this level and it was already shaded UNDER at the Opening.
Dallas at Los Angeles OVER 181.5
Low Total for this match up at 181.5, which is at it's lowest since opening at 183, does give expectation to high caliber team playing championship level defense. That and the strong UNDER trend both teams are racking up, but 2 UNDER's don't always add up to more UNDER. The value comes on the OVER at this level and it was already shaded UNDER at the Opening.
Dallas at Los Angeles OVER 181.5
Sunday, January 15, 2012
NBA Monday
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia
The Total 189 looks like easily reachable number as recent Sixers games have sailed over the centry mark 3 out of last 4 and recent Bucks games have given up over 100 points in 3 out of last 4 so if Milwaukee cracks mid 80's game goes Over. This would be the common perception, but if the ATS theory holds true I feel the points will come at preimium and revert to low scoring game sinking this Total UNDER. The number has dropped to 187.5, but this game still goes UNDER.
Bucks at 76ers UNDER 187.5(W)
The Total 189 looks like easily reachable number as recent Sixers games have sailed over the centry mark 3 out of last 4 and recent Bucks games have given up over 100 points in 3 out of last 4 so if Milwaukee cracks mid 80's game goes Over. This would be the common perception, but if the ATS theory holds true I feel the points will come at preimium and revert to low scoring game sinking this Total UNDER. The number has dropped to 187.5, but this game still goes UNDER.
Bucks at 76ers UNDER 187.5(W)
Thursday, January 12, 2012
NBA Thursday
Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors
This game with plenty of UNDER implications gets a low number, 187.5, to raise few eyebrows for OVER play. But in this relatively young season Warriors required a OT to break the OVER at home the first of this season. Orlando comes to Oracle with 2 OVER's in a row also first of this season. Both teams coming off a OVER rarity and this game looks to return to narmality. This number is on the low end of trade coming to close and that is something you should be aware of before jumping in.
UNDER 187.5
This game with plenty of UNDER implications gets a low number, 187.5, to raise few eyebrows for OVER play. But in this relatively young season Warriors required a OT to break the OVER at home the first of this season. Orlando comes to Oracle with 2 OVER's in a row also first of this season. Both teams coming off a OVER rarity and this game looks to return to narmality. This number is on the low end of trade coming to close and that is something you should be aware of before jumping in.
UNDER 187.5
Thursday, January 05, 2012
NBA Thursday
Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings
Bucks will try to get a break once again as they catch the Kings on the 3rd game in 3 days sequence, as they did with Denver and ATS was about what line you got. Milwaukee has issues, but needs take advantage of schedule disparity. Bucks to cover.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS -2.5(L)
Bucks will try to get a break once again as they catch the Kings on the 3rd game in 3 days sequence, as they did with Denver and ATS was about what line you got. Milwaukee has issues, but needs take advantage of schedule disparity. Bucks to cover.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS -2.5(L)
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
NBA Wednesday
Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic
Magic back at home after running out of gas in Palace at Auburn Hills losing the game SU by 11 point margin while pegged as -5 road favorite. At least they got a break and many are eyeing the big bounce back against the lowly Wizards. The problem is Orlando bounce back games after losing as a favorite and playing as a double digit favorite. Magic has dropped 8 out of 9 in this situation from last season.
Washington was much improved playing in Boston, keeping up most of the way, and covering ATS.
Look to be a opposing direction game.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS +13
Magic back at home after running out of gas in Palace at Auburn Hills losing the game SU by 11 point margin while pegged as -5 road favorite. At least they got a break and many are eyeing the big bounce back against the lowly Wizards. The problem is Orlando bounce back games after losing as a favorite and playing as a double digit favorite. Magic has dropped 8 out of 9 in this situation from last season.
Washington was much improved playing in Boston, keeping up most of the way, and covering ATS.
Look to be a opposing direction game.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS +13
Tuesday, January 03, 2012
NBA Tuesday
Portland Trailblazers at Oklahoma Thunder
Oklahoma dropped their first game this season at Dallas as a -2.5 road favorites, line actually moved -0.5 favoring Thunder before game time, still at 5-1, 30-11 home record and solid bounce back after a loss record from last season there will be plenty of takers for Oklahoma City. This Thunder team is one tough nut to crack, but I feel the schedule advantage should of narrowed the line closer to 3.5 as these two teams in most recent meetings have played it close to the average tune of 4 point differential in 4 meeting last season. Blazers games ATS is coming in very close so far this season. Portland is also coming off a loss at L.A. Clipper on New Year day late game, that ATS was very close in the end. Portland will catch OKC here on home, rest, away, home, 4 day 3 game schedule with 5 points, as of my writing, well rested road dog and Thunder has not been hitting ATS.
Taking the points with the visiting Blazers to keep this tight.
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS +5(W)
Oklahoma dropped their first game this season at Dallas as a -2.5 road favorites, line actually moved -0.5 favoring Thunder before game time, still at 5-1, 30-11 home record and solid bounce back after a loss record from last season there will be plenty of takers for Oklahoma City. This Thunder team is one tough nut to crack, but I feel the schedule advantage should of narrowed the line closer to 3.5 as these two teams in most recent meetings have played it close to the average tune of 4 point differential in 4 meeting last season. Blazers games ATS is coming in very close so far this season. Portland is also coming off a loss at L.A. Clipper on New Year day late game, that ATS was very close in the end. Portland will catch OKC here on home, rest, away, home, 4 day 3 game schedule with 5 points, as of my writing, well rested road dog and Thunder has not been hitting ATS.
Taking the points with the visiting Blazers to keep this tight.
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS +5(W)
Monday, January 02, 2012
NBA Monday
Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets
Nuggets take out the Lakers at home covering -5.5 with an strong finish, splitting the back to back road home with Lakers winning ATS, coming to their final leg of road, home, home, triple straight game. Denver is killing it ATS and Pepsi Center, one of the toughest in NBA, will not be easy for the Bucks even on this night. Although Milwaukee was dismal on the road season ago this team looks improved and poised to keep the Total Under.
Milwaukee shot Over 53% against Washington which will most likely come down and as the Lakers have already dampened the high scoring Denver offense for two games I like this game to go UNDER.
BUCKS/NUGGETS UNDER 200(W)
Nuggets take out the Lakers at home covering -5.5 with an strong finish, splitting the back to back road home with Lakers winning ATS, coming to their final leg of road, home, home, triple straight game. Denver is killing it ATS and Pepsi Center, one of the toughest in NBA, will not be easy for the Bucks even on this night. Although Milwaukee was dismal on the road season ago this team looks improved and poised to keep the Total Under.
Milwaukee shot Over 53% against Washington which will most likely come down and as the Lakers have already dampened the high scoring Denver offense for two games I like this game to go UNDER.
BUCKS/NUGGETS UNDER 200(W)
Sunday, January 01, 2012
NBA on New Year Day
Dallas at Minnesota
This match up, despite the NBA champions playing the bottom of NBA Northwest, gets a small spread of -3 for the Mavs. In this young season both of these teams are at the bottom of their respective division, but -3 for the Champs will sure to have many takers. However this line is suspect. On the home court Timberwolves are well rested dangerous dogs and have covered all games ATS. Mavs have been on an grueling schedule starting back to back, Heat & Nuggets, and now alternating Road, Home, rest and Road sequence. Dallas managed to win and cover their last game at home against Toronto making them 1-3, but look at that game and see the shooting percentage, 3 point shooting, rebounding, points in the paint, fast break points, all the key stats, except for whopping 38 FT the Raptors gave away Mavs cashed in 28, did not excel over Toronto. In fact Mavs performance have not been impressive.
Minnesota are just the opposite and are keeping up with NBA elite teams. Wolves last game against the contending Heat was impressive, out shooting from 3 points, out boarding and getting to the FT line more then the Heat only to lose by a basket in closing 5 seconds. I look for hungry Minnesota Timberwolves eyeing for their first home victory to take it SU & Cover.
MINNESOTA +3(W)
This match up, despite the NBA champions playing the bottom of NBA Northwest, gets a small spread of -3 for the Mavs. In this young season both of these teams are at the bottom of their respective division, but -3 for the Champs will sure to have many takers. However this line is suspect. On the home court Timberwolves are well rested dangerous dogs and have covered all games ATS. Mavs have been on an grueling schedule starting back to back, Heat & Nuggets, and now alternating Road, Home, rest and Road sequence. Dallas managed to win and cover their last game at home against Toronto making them 1-3, but look at that game and see the shooting percentage, 3 point shooting, rebounding, points in the paint, fast break points, all the key stats, except for whopping 38 FT the Raptors gave away Mavs cashed in 28, did not excel over Toronto. In fact Mavs performance have not been impressive.
Minnesota are just the opposite and are keeping up with NBA elite teams. Wolves last game against the contending Heat was impressive, out shooting from 3 points, out boarding and getting to the FT line more then the Heat only to lose by a basket in closing 5 seconds. I look for hungry Minnesota Timberwolves eyeing for their first home victory to take it SU & Cover.
MINNESOTA +3(W)
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
NBA Tuesday
Back to the hard court. Starting the season with a loss is not good. Hopefully we catch up today.
Sacramento Kings at Portland Trailblazers
Kings coming off a win against the contending Lakers at home, home dog of +3.5 winning straight up, is on second of back to back playing the Blazers at the Rose Garden. There is a lack behind Blazers backers after Pushing the last game against Philadelphia and Kings winning against the Lakers, but the consideration here should be the Total which flexed a bit downwards but is back up to 197.5 and I will take the Under.
Portland defense should improve tonight and Kings back to back will help the situation.
UNDER 197.5 for 1 unit(W)
Caught the Total in perfect spot!
Sacramento Kings at Portland Trailblazers
Kings coming off a win against the contending Lakers at home, home dog of +3.5 winning straight up, is on second of back to back playing the Blazers at the Rose Garden. There is a lack behind Blazers backers after Pushing the last game against Philadelphia and Kings winning against the Lakers, but the consideration here should be the Total which flexed a bit downwards but is back up to 197.5 and I will take the Under.
Portland defense should improve tonight and Kings back to back will help the situation.
UNDER 197.5 for 1 unit(W)
Caught the Total in perfect spot!
Sunday, December 25, 2011
NBA on Christmas
NBA has returned and without getting into how we got here let's move right into the state of these games. When I say this, I mean the shaky start Lakers will take in their Xmas opener hosting the very dangerous Chicago Bulls. This is a cohesive team expected to go the distance. The current Laker's, Kobe hurt, no Lomar, Pau in dismay, the game will more than likely be won by Chicago Bull @ Staples Center.
This is a Bookies nightmare line where it originally opened in Lakers favor only to have Kobe's wrist injury swing the odds back to Chicago's favor exposing the books to risk on both sides of this game.
Chicago Bulls -3.5 points(L)
This is a Bookies nightmare line where it originally opened in Lakers favor only to have Kobe's wrist injury swing the odds back to Chicago's favor exposing the books to risk on both sides of this game.
Chicago Bulls -3.5 points(L)
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Back on Track 2011
Let's hope the deal stays on course. This delay season start will be interesting. But upcoming games will have rematch of Mavs & Heat and Lakers & Bulls should be a high scoring affair. There will be many games to exploit. Hope to have you back checking on "NBA Plays & Selection" for another Fantastic season!
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
OKC Thunder at Dallas Mavercks WC Finals #5
I shut the NBA blog back in Jan. due to lack of time, but I do like the game. I enjoy games played on daily basis. It's how you read the changes and spot fundamental angles. This game is elimination game for the Thunder and they are coming off a gut wrenching OT loss at home. Yet this line has widen not tighten so I will go with OKC getting too many points!
OKC +6.5(W)
OKC +6.5(W)
Monday, January 10, 2011
NBA Monday
Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls
This is a losing team vs winning team match up, but the losing team, Pistons, have been playing very good ATS Basketball whereas the winning team, Bulls, have sandwiched two ATS losses between single win. Chicago's two most recent games against sub par teams at home giving up double digit points ATS? 12/31 and 1/01 Nets & Cavaliers both SU winners, both ATS losers. Chicago also visited Detroit 12/26, SU winner & ATS no cover loser, in a game that went into OT. Bulls are very suspect against weaker foes getting hefty points. There's a pattern right? The pattern is don't be short sighted. Last 10 game sampling goes against the big picture which is Detroit away 3-16 just above Cleveland in the East. The Bulls have dominated this match up for sometime and at home I expect the Bulls to take control.
CHICAGO BULLS -9.5(W)
This is a losing team vs winning team match up, but the losing team, Pistons, have been playing very good ATS Basketball whereas the winning team, Bulls, have sandwiched two ATS losses between single win. Chicago's two most recent games against sub par teams at home giving up double digit points ATS? 12/31 and 1/01 Nets & Cavaliers both SU winners, both ATS losers. Chicago also visited Detroit 12/26, SU winner & ATS no cover loser, in a game that went into OT. Bulls are very suspect against weaker foes getting hefty points. There's a pattern right? The pattern is don't be short sighted. Last 10 game sampling goes against the big picture which is Detroit away 3-16 just above Cleveland in the East. The Bulls have dominated this match up for sometime and at home I expect the Bulls to take control.
CHICAGO BULLS -9.5(W)
Thursday, January 06, 2011
NBA Friday
New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns
Welcome to the new era for the valley of the Suns. Landscape has much changed in Phoenix 2011, but going back through the past match ups Suns never had much over the Knicks. That holds true this season as well with Knicks one of the top ATS team going against 5-10-1 home ATS Phoenix Suns. Take the points on the road team Knicks.
New York Knicks +2(W)
Welcome to the new era for the valley of the Suns. Landscape has much changed in Phoenix 2011, but going back through the past match ups Suns never had much over the Knicks. That holds true this season as well with Knicks one of the top ATS team going against 5-10-1 home ATS Phoenix Suns. Take the points on the road team Knicks.
New York Knicks +2(W)
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