NBA Friday

Had excellent line, so I thought, in the last game Over loser.

Rockets at Pacers
Following strong ref trend and siding with Houston.

HOUSTON ROCKETS +6 at -108 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

 7-5  1,660

Oklahoma at Denver
Denver has gone 4 games in a row Under. Now 7-3 Under and all three Over's happened on the road. Oklahoma also coming off a Under game and although the offense has been solid the Over has been close to half and half proposition. Tonight's number has been holding steady with a hook and this one looks to edge Over. Denver has been very good home dog and still looks to continue that trend, but more so is the Over with Denver as a dog 39-20 edge at mile high for past 3 seasons. Looks good tonight.

OKLAHOMA at DENVER
GAME TOTAL OVER 206.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Monday

 6-5  660

Washington Wizards at NY Knicks
Might expand on this pick, but the short of it is we are fading the Knicks.

WASHINGTON +2 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Monday

 5-5 -340 

Portland Trailblazers at Utah Jazz
Moving on to Salt Lake where the Jazz men are mired in 3-8 home slump. Formerly known as the Delta Center now called Energy Solutions Arena is historically one of the toughest home court advantage owned by any NBA team at 402-115. That edge is quickly melting this season. Red hot Trailblazers will come to this match as -7 point road favorites and we will lay the points tonight. Portland 8-2 ATS away from the Rose Garden, 10-0 against losing teams.

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS -7 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

5-5 680 

Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers
Koby is back for L.A. and Lakers money is pushing this line. I understand the disruption, but this Total O/U movement has been dropping erraticly since the open and finally took a bounce at 202. The initial Total of 205 at the open was bit high as the range from the average for these teams is between 198.5 and 201.5 However the movement was fueled by Koby's return also had the books adjusting the Total and this is an likely situation where books are not comfortable. Both of these teams are trending Over and Total of more than 200 points are cashing Over at 9-6 for the Lakers and 4-0 for the Raptors. The Lakers young players are adapting to D'Antoni's gunning style and these two teams are Over 10-1 in Los Angeles. Don't get distracted here.

TORONTO RAPTORS at LOS ANGELES LAKERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 203 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Saturday

4-5 -320

Charlotte Bobcats at Milwaukee Bucks
Follow the money my friends. The Bobcats are covering the spread and they are covering on the road. Facing a weak home team in Milwaukee Bucks, 1-4 ATS at home, coming off a OT loss. A game Bucks should of covered in regulation. Road home back to back will  not serve this Bucks team any home edge.Wrong team getting points and our money goes to Charlotte moneyline and ATS

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +2.5 at -102 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

4-4 780

Portland Trailblazers at Toronto Raptors
Despite Portland's winning ways the Raptors will be one possession favorites.  The wagering public like the idea of getting points with the Trailblazers playing well on the road, but Toronto off it's worst scoring game and a blow out loss to Chicago should be motivated to host a surging team. Portland crushed the spread and this is a likely spot for decline.

TORONTO RAPTORS -2 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Saturday

Record: 3-3  + 800

Miami at Charlotte
The Bobcats are coming off a road win, not just one but, two consecutive road wins. Charlotte beat Boston and Cleveland making 3 consecutive road wins. 4 wins out of last 6 coming into this match at home against Miami Heat. The Heat are rolling as well winning 5 out of last 6. The offense is packing some punch scoring triple digits in 9 out of last 10 games. The Total here has been coming down and we do like the score to go over. Miami defense has allowed triple digits in Philadelphia and Brooklyn. The last three road games have gone Over. Charlotte has been playing low scoring games, but their scoring does improve at home. Looking for another triple digit score from Miami and into the mid 90's for Charlotte.

MIAMI HEAT at CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
GAME TOTAL OVER 193 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

Brooklyn at Los Angeles
Backing the Total to go Over on this game. Clippers 6-1 Over as favorites and perfect Over at home. Brooklyn trending Over against winning teams, in non conference games and likely spot to give up triple digits.

BROOKLYN NETS at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 202 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Friday

Record: 2-3   -200

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
Two teams avoiding their down grade will meet at the Staples Center tonight. Lakers are back from Denver losing that game 99-111, no cover, on their second leg of back to back. Memphis is coming off a blow out game at home against Toronto 88-103, dropping that game as a -6 point favorite. Public is on the Lakers tonight as a small home dog, but that line is holding steady. We're going to back the Under in this party as the Grizz following a blow out game giving away triple digit has been very Under minded. The Lakers coming off a game just failing to score 100 points is also good for another under 100 points scoring night.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES at L.A. LAKERS
GAME TOTAL UNDER 198 at-105 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Saturday

Record: 1-2   -170

Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
The Warriors continue the early season as heavy favorites at home. Sacramento Kings are looking to grow as a good ATS team this season. They are getting double digit points after the Lakers debacle at the Oracle raising the bar for Golden State Warriors. The line did open -9.5, but grew to 11, some places 11.5, and this is going to be a tall order for the Warriors to cover this number. Sacramento Kings have matched well and looks well advantaged in the paint. Backing the road dog.

SACRAMENTO KINGS +11.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

SACRAMENTO at GOLDEN STATE OVER 207.5 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Wednesday

Record: 1-1   -70

L.A. Lakers at Golden State Warriors
I'd imagine Lakers will be sizable under dogs tonight, but last night's beating of Clippers at Staples didn't do much to move the line. It's seen as a fluke and the Vegas money has brushed it off in this early season game. Golden State comes in high expectation, like the Clippers, with potent offense. This is the Warriors opening at the Oracle arena and they would like to get this party right catching the Lakers on back to back. However Lakers rested much of their starters and rotated players well. Plus getting +12 points is pretty fat. Look for the Lakers to make it interesting.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS +12 at 100 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Tuesday

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers
It was lights out scoring to begin that last game. May seem unusual, but Miami plays great offense against defense minded teams, going Over in those match ups 6-0, and against winning teams in general are Over 16-8. Indiana has also played to the Over. In play offs 10-5  and after double digit loss are 11-7.
It may not go 210 like the last game, but 184.5 is in reach.

MIAMI HEAT at INDIANA PACERS
GAME TOTAL OVER 184.5 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

L.A. Lakers at L.A. Clippers Second Half
Lakers minus their star Koby is playing very well at Staples. They are getting 9.5 points for the game and second half is still very much in line Lakers +5.5 with Lakers leading 57-55 the books are looking for Clippers to win by 4 points or better. The game spread will need Lakers melt down, but second half looks for another tight match up. Looking for another cover which will make Lakers covering first quarter, second quarter and first half.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS +5.5 SECOND HALF at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Opening 2013-2014

Hey Everybody, let's get ready for some hard court. We will asses the games as we go and don't take too much into preseason talking heads. Chicago with Rose returning has high expectations, but we need to see how they perform and Bulls are likely to improve as the season progresses. L.A. expectations for this season is done and out, but this season the Lakers might be good ATS team. It looks like a team able to hang around and get those back door cover.  It will play out and we will see. The opening game we'll back tonight is... Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers game Total OVER 188
This number has been climbing since the opening. Indiana scoring looks to increase at home this season and Orlando capable of pacing.

ORLANDO MAGIC at INDIANA PACER OVER 188 at -107 for 1 unit(L)
Indiana 97-87 Under 188 and No Cover -11.5 or -12

Let's see how improved the Clippers are. First Half to Clippers advantage.
L.A. CLIPPERS -5.5 at -110 for 1 unit

NBA Sunday

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers
You know these teams have played the Total OVER 3 games in a row now, the two games in Miami and last New York game for Indiana and Chicago for the Heat.  The trend following these three Over's and Miami off a upset home loss has been better than 80% for the season. What is the trend? Miami money line and game under and under 1st half.  Let's go get it.

MIAMI Money Line -130 for 1 unit(W)

MIAMI at INDIANA GAME TOTAL UNDER 182 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

MIAMI at INDIANA GAME TOTAL FIRST HALF UNDER 91 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Wednesday

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat
Tough game here. You know these two teams are at it again in the play offs and Miami got a cake walk against depleted Chicago Bulls to advance. In this opener for round two 8 points seems large against rested Pacers, but the home team has covered in the past. This season Miami's winning at home, but not covering as well. I'll take the points and advantage on the glass. Le Bron has lit up the Pacers before, but Indiana will be physical tonight with defense taking the forefront. If James is going to get hot it'll come in the latter half.

INDIANA PACERS +8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

INDIANA PACERS at MIAMI HEAT GAME TOTAL
FIRST HALF UNDER 90.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Sunday

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are in a pinch. Coming off a gutsy performance against Golden State losing Koby in that game. Can they will this game against the mighty Spurs? Lakers hold their own destiny. The Spurs will return Tony Parker, but no Diaw or Ginobilli and Stephen Jackson was waived on Friday.  On this match up our angle will look for Lakers to step up without their superstar.  Lakers have matched up well against San Antonio this season with two games finishing very close, within 2 and 3.  The Lakers 7 wins out of last 10.  Spurs lost 4 in a row ATS and have not covered the spread 8 out of last 10.  also dropped last 4 road games, all 4 of those teams had home winning record.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS +2 First Half at -110 for 1 unit(W)
43-43 tie at the Half

Lakers playing tough and the 2nd Half line is Lakers +2.5 Strap your seat belts it's coming down to the wire.  Lakers big men are playing with intensity and the score is starting to grind. Take the Lakers to win this on SU, take the points too.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS ML +135 for 1 unit(W)
LOS ANGELES LAKERS +2.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Another close one 91-88 Lakers ! Spurs lose on the road.

NBA Friday

Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors
The Bulls stop the streaking NY Knicks winning streak. That's two impressive stop against Miami and Knicks, both teams were steam rolling opponents before facing the Bulls.  However Chicago is not exactly an surging team at 3-2 in last 5 and 6-4 in last 10. The Bulls are coming off a OT win against NY at home playing the second leg of home & road back to back making this a tough spot. Toronto sub .500 team, but better ATS team than Chicago and plays much better at home.  The Raptors just beat Chicago SU as a +3.5 Underdog and they will be receiving points here again. The situation seems to point toward Chicago let down, but this late in season Toronto's motivation is fading. I wouldn't say Toronto's going to "mail it in", but the Bulls may "will" this game despite the draining OT against the Knicks. NY on revenge games are not that good at 11-17, but as a short road underdog they are 6-3 and winning against Atlantic division teams 12-5 with good road ATS record of 22-15.  Toronto 10-13 as favorites, 2-8 with two days rest, 14-20 against winning teams. 6-12 against winning teams in second half. Home games against above ,500 teams have disappointed.

CHICAGO BULLS +2.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Wednesday

Got a big match up tonight.

San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
The Spurs come to the mile high city as a 3 point underdog and why not? San Antonio is not firing on all cylinders. The Spurs are 2-3 in last 5 games and on the road,  they have dropped 4 straight. Denver at home is at it's best and they are taking out contending teams. Denver, 12-4 ATS  against Southwest division, 14-5 against winning teams in second half, 18-7 against good offensive teams and that gets better to 9-2 in second half against good offensive teams. The Spurs on the other hand are terrible against good offensive teams logging 8-17 against high octane teams. Against Northwest division rivals 6-9. They are not covering overall in second half at 12-17. Taking Denver laying the points.

DENVER NUGGETS -3 at -103 for 1 unit(W)
86-96 Denver wins!

NBA Tuesday

Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls
We have a very Under looking match up, but I think I gave this angle while back. Both teams strung series of Under's and in their last game scoring 85 points or less. This game goes Over and the match up trends Over.
The number is a low 185 and short handed Bulls are missing some defensive pieces. Back the Over

TORONTO RAPTORS at CHICAGO BULLS
Game Total OVER 185 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Got taken yesterday on a non-NBA game, but we're right back at ya!

NCAA National Championship

There are no games scheduled in the NBA, but we do have the title game coming up and that's where our focus will be. Let's head out to Atlanta, GA. to the Georgia dome.  It's Michigan Wolverines 31-7 against Louisville Cardinals 34-5 for all the marbles.  This match up with No#1 Louisville Cardinals expected to take this game by 4 points and the final total to land around 138 points so the division is Cardinals 73 Wolverines 65.  If you go back 10 games for Louisville the Cards have exceeded 73 in  7 out 10 and gone Over 9 out of 10. The Wolverines have exceeded 65 points in 8 out of last 10, but their games are O/U 5-5 and only twice have their opponents score over 73 points. What we see here is Michigan output increase and Louisville decline which is likely, but what most will see is the production from both teams playing under the average. From the average perspective the Total is low and it has been driven up by 2 points, holding steady at 138, still making it Over bias. However our projection is closer to 136 Under bias something like 67-69 Louisville SU Michigan +4 cover and game Total Under.  The play we like is Under with the number getting pushed up. Backing the Under in this Over bias game.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES vs LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
Game Total UNDER 138.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)