NBA Pre-Season Thursday

1-0 last selection YTD 6-2 +3.98 units

Hows it going fellas? I've already made a call on World Series Game 1 and got some Ice picks on back burner, but definite play here on NBA.

76er's at Knicks
This game at MSG will be about containment and pressure defense. Can NY win by -5? I'm not sure, but the UNDER is a play.

PHL/NYK UNDER 194.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

What you say!
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Pre-Season Monday

1-0 last play. YTD 5-2 +2.98 units

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks
Pre-Season into last week countdown. Tonight we roll with Hawks at home. Atlanta is showing uncanny enthusiasm which will show on court at home. Wizards still tinkering around so go with the home team give up -3 points.

ATLANTA -3 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
By 1 point!
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Pre-Season Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 4-2 +1.98 units

T-Wolves at Milwaukee Bucks.
Bucks have dropped two games in sub par fashion and they allowed over 100+ points in the last game. Minny will have their hands full today.

BUCKS -7 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Pre-Season China

1-2 last selection. YTD 3-2 +0.89 units

Cleveland at Orlando
Keep in mind the faithfuls are waiting for the Cavs to show up and that's very understandable, but the other side is a very good looking Magic team playing in sync. Under estimated is a good thing for Magic. Look for them to be in top form this season

MAGIC +2.5 at +109 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.09 units

NBA Pre-Season Thursday

Won last night in blow out fashion. YTD 2-0 +2.00 units

Today we will move on to Seattle getting +5.5 in Los Angeles. I doubt Kobe putting his effort today with internal troubles swirling and his knee hurting. Jackson is likely to limit his play. This game is at Rabobank Arena, Bakersfield, CA.

SEA +5.5 at -111 for 1 unit(L)

Also playing the Suns against Clippers give up -4 points and the price is currently -108.
Luv the Suns coming off a 124 point game.

PHO -4 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

Last play is New York Knicks at New Jersey Nets to play out a low score.

NYK/NJN UNDER 186 at +101 for 1 unit(L)

1-2 -1.11 units

NBA Pre-Season

2007 Pre-Season starts 1-0 YTD record is +1.00 unit

Play today is on Boston at home against NY Knicks giving up -6 points. On the strength of Celtics new found inside outside game.

BOS -6 at -109 for 1 unit(W)

How was that 101-61 Boston win!
1-0 +1.oo unit

NBA Pre-Season Game

Ready to take the ROCK yall. We're going to get this party started early back at Pinny. Many offshore operations that continue to service US clients benefited from Pinny's withdraw, but what failed to happen was emergence of dominant replacement to fill the void. Exchange like Matchbook does offer best market lines, but they lack games. Lines are important, but you need sizable selections to find the best deal. Greek is good and 5 Dimes is good, but basically they have not changed in post Pinny's withdraw so players wanting to get early opening odds, big selections of games and low juice will find their way back. US is country made of immigrants, many with friends and family abroad, we were able to open a EU account to fund Pinnacle.

Breaking the ice with this pick.

UTA/PHO OVER 201.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Love it when the winner is a done deal before the end. Start the NBA with a win!
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA 2007 Preview

The NBA’s 119-game preseason schedule for 2007, which features games in 21 non-NBA North American cities, will tip off Oct. 6, with an NBA Europe Live doubleheader.
The Boston Celtics, and new acquisition Kevin Garnett, will travel to Rome, Italy to face Chris Bosh and the Toronto Raptors at Pala Lottomatica, and the Minnesota Timberwolves take on 12-time Turkish Basketball League Champions Efes Pilsen at Abdi Ipekci Sports Hall in Istanbul, Turkey.

NBA Europe marks the start of Training Camps for the 2007-08 season, continues on Oct. 7, when the Raptors take on Lottomatica Roma, also at Pala Lottomatica. On Oct. 9, the Memphis Grizzlies face Spain’s Unicaja, with former NBA players Jiri Welsch and Daniel Santiago, at Palacio de Deportes Jose Maria Martin Carpena in Malaga, Spain. Garnett will battle his former team for the first time when the Celtics face the Timberwolves at London’s O2 Arena on Oct. 10 on ESPN2.
NBA Europe Live concludes with a doubleheader on Oct. 11, when the Grizzlies take on MMT Estudiantes and Toronto battles Real Madrid, both at Palacio de Deportes de la Comunidad in Madrid, Spain.

NBA China Games 2007 features Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic and LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers traveling to Shanghai and Macao. The Magic and Cavaliers play at the Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena in Shanghai on Oct. 17, and at Venetian Arena in Macao on Oct. 20. Between those two contests, Orlando will take on the Chinese National Team on October 18, also at Venetian Arena.

Europe’s top team travels to Texas for a game against the NBA’s best when the 2007 Euroleague Champion, Greece’s Panathinaikos, visits AT&T Center in San Antonio on Oct. 13 for a showdown with Tim Duncan and the defending champion Spurs. Panathinaikos also will take on Yao Ming and the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center in Houston on Oct. 11.

National television coverage will feature Carlos Boozer and the 2006-07 Northwest Division champion Utah Jazz taking on last year’s scoring leader Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers at San Diego Sports Arena in San Diego, California on Oct. 25 on TNT.

Other preseason highlights include: a showdown between the last two NBA champions when 2007 Finals MVP Tony Parker and the San Antonio Spurs, who captured their fourth NBA title in nine years in June, visit the 2005-06 NBA Champion Miami Heat on Oct. 23; a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, when Chauncey Billups and the Detroit Pistons visit Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland on Oct. 11; and a match-up of the top two picks of the 2007 NBA Draft when top overall selection Greg Oden and the Portland Trail Blazers host Kevin Durant and the Seattle SuperSonics on Oct. 24 at Rose Garden.

The New York Knicks host Israel’s Maccabi Tel Aviv on Oct. 11. Lithuania’s Zalgiris Kaunas takes on the Golden State Warriors on Oct. 15 at Oracle Arena, the Toronto Raptors at Air Canada Centre on Oct. 17, and the Washington Wizards at Verizon Center on Oct. 19, as an extension of the NBA’s International 2007 preseason slate.

NBA Final game 4

My selection on NBA Final Spurs vs Cavaliers. Much time has passed since my last NBA pick, but reasoning here remains the same. I'm looking for a bounce in scoring to clear the Over. Lack of Cavs adjusting their game especially in game tell the story of coaching short fall.

SAS/CLE OVER 175 at -102 for 1 unit(L)
SAS/CLE OVER 176 at +111 for 1 unit(L)

SAS First Half -1.5 at +105 for 1 unit(W)

Should of stayed away I was doing fine without NBA.
But it was the last game as expected, although Cavs covered on the last basket, winning straight up.
1-2 -0.97 units

NBA Playoff Monday

People that know me will tell you I'm Under bias when it comes to basketball. I thought this might be a good spot with Deron Williams no show at practice. Checking the board the Total was dropping from 191 to 189.5 ( now at 190) So I went Over on the dropping number. Basically a technical take on match up producing consistent Overs on all 5 games in 2007

SAS/UTA OVER 189.5 at -106 for 2 unit

NBA Playoff Saturday

Tonight I will back the Defense. To stop the bleeding Jazz will tighten up against the San Antonio Big three, Manu, Tony and Timmy are marked men.

SAS/UTA UNDER 190 at 100 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Thursday

Sup people. I'm on the road again making difficult to post my plays. Without getting into all the small details and taking the home court into consideration, I still think Cavs will steal one tonight. So it's only natural to take the visitors with points. I'd took a long hard look at the Under as well, but decided on Sides instead. Take the points and enjoy this game.

CLEVELAND +5.5 at -106 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

2nd Half NBA Tuesday

Utah Jazz -4 Second Half at -102 for 2 units(W)
GSW/UTA 2nd Half UNDER 108 at +104 for 2 units(W)

Glad I made these plays made up for baseball losses.
2-0 +4.00 units

NBA Playoff Sunday

Money selection for this Sunday.

SAS/PHO UNDER 200 at -107 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.14 units

NBA Playoff Monday

Utah at Houston. I think the last game was a wake up call to T-Mac and the Rockets. This is the game where Rockets need to dominate the inside and the glass. I betting they will respond tonight.

HOU -5.5 at -111 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.22 units

NBA Playoff Sunday

Phoenix at Los Angeles Total has been over adjusted and this game will go Over with plenty of time. The last match up Suns played 3 sub par quarters and Lakers 2 sub par quarters which 210 Total missed by a mile with 184. Suns only attempted 75 shots which they connected 48% and allowed 81 with 42% to Lakers win. Suns effort on the board was dismal and they have failed to reach +90 points for only the 3rd time this season. By every indication this should be a game Suns will dictate the tempo and play to eclipse +110 points. Lakers will just have to keep pace.

PHO/LAL OVER 205.5 for +100 for 3 units(W)

See
1-0 +3.00 units

NBA Playoff Saturday

Will Detroit take it all in Orlando? It certainly appears so and Public is heavy on Detroit and Over.
I kind of like Pistons myself and think they will pull away in the 2nd half. But what really caught my interest is the Total 182.5~183 with money pushing the Over.
The teams have matched up Over, but I see the Over trend as a bias when the games are played in Detroit not in Orlando. Magic at home are 14-27-1 O/U with Pistons on road 15-27-0 O/U and the Books opened the line at 181. This is the last chance for Orlando Magic they will tighten up, attack the glass and scores will not come cheap.

Waiting for the number to settle down, but 183 or higher looks like a good Under.

Got caught up in Baseball got lucky and missed the losing Under wager, but also missed another play I was considering Houston at Utah Under 185 so I'll try again tomorrow.

NBA Playoff Friday

Taking one game tonight. Nets to go up on the series at home and cover on this classic zig zag match.

NJN -4 at -107 for 2 units(W)

Stop the bleeding.
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Playoff Thrusday

Playing baseball and basketball tonight.
Rockets at Jazz. Utah has lacked and they are not playing their best game. Books are saying they will bounce back at home, but doesn't gain much of my confidence. Give me T-Mac, Yao and company to take care of business on the road.

HOU +4.5 at +102 for 2 units(L)


Suns at Lakers. Another match where home team gives me little to back. Kobe looking a bit worn and Suns are surging.

PHO -4 at +101 for 1 unit(L)

Took Lakers in-game-live to wipe out the two losses, but posted plays were very square.
0-2 -3.00 units

NBA Playoff Tuesday

I really liked Miami at Chicago Over 182, but dragged my feet and now it's jumped 2 points!

The other game is New Jersey at Toronto. I put a mark on Raptors at the start of the season having strong feeling this team was going to be a winner this season and they have performed.
Moving forward in playoffs against a seasoned team and giving up points is another matter.
I'm not writing off Toronto just waiting for the right spot most likely on the road.
Tonight go with the Nets.

NJN +5.5 at -105 for 2 units(L)
Loser by 0.5 points and this also looked like a winner all the way.
0-1 -2.10 units

NBA Playoff Monday

I have one take tonight, Utah at Houston.
I see the game to unfold as a tough defensive match up. Jazz feel they are better collective and they can strike if they control Yao and McGrady which means closing the inside. The physical battle will suite Rockets fine Yao will post up against anybody. Now let's have a off shooting night with countless turn overs.

UTA/HOU UNDER 185 at -107 for 3 units(L)

How in the hell did I lose this one? It was headed Under all the way!
0-1 -3.21 units

NBA Playoff Sunday

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks.
This line is moving the way of Mav -10.5 even a -11 (5Dimes) I'll take the points and back the Warriors on the road. It's all a new ball game

GSW +10 at +103 for 2 units(W)

GSW/DAL Over 214.5 at +108 for 2 units *Canceling out this play(L)
GSW/DAL Under 214 at -105 for 3 units(W)

Sorry for the last minute switch the nature of playoff games changed my mind.
2-1 +3.06 units

NBA Monday

Boston at Miami
Two Under trending teams meet up with the season winding down. Celtics have failed to reach +99 points in 9 of last 10 regulation and 8 of last 10 with one OT game. Their O/U record is 6-4 for last 10 and that's due to their porous defense giving up four +99 points & two +95 points in last 10 games. Boston also receives fairly low numbers due to their depleted starters. Heat is definitely a solid Under trending team. Heat has not scored over +99 points in 9 of last 10 regulation and 8 of last 10 with one OT game. Their O/U record is 4-6 with 2 of the 4 Overs coming due to OT. In the South East they are the next best Under team after Orlando. But With Wade getting warmed up since returning to the line up Miami's number should rise. Heat has cracked +99 points against Indy in last game. Boston will look to step it up as they almost pulled off a 4th quarter come back in Orlando. Nice spot for a scoring increase. No need for anyone to get hurt let the players play.

BOS/MIA OVER 189 at -101 for 2 units(L)

Ahh, one basket and 1 second difference going to OT. Close but no cigar.
0-1 -2.02 units

NBA Saturday (April 14, 2007)

Time flies doesn't it? I wasn't planning to take this many days off, but it happens.
So what do we have going on? Late Saturday game for all those lonely degenerates at home who may stumble onto my blog.

Supersonics at Trail Blazers
This game may not get much attention but Sonics +1 is a keeper. Sonics will one up Portland's secondary squad and that's what I'll back tonight.

SEA +1 at -108 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.08 units

NBA Tuesday

Sorry for the hiatus had places to go people to see. Now I'm back in my humble abode looking at a number that's killed me during the season, Low numbers looking Under game Toronto at Miami. Number's had little swing and by simple measures it has that "easily reachable" first glance and many similar style games did exactly that during this season. But given the cast of characters with stage set in Miami I have to say the nature of this game is Under and though 186~186.5 is a low Total with money moving Over I will take the risk on Under get paid some extra clams.

TOR/MIA UNDER 186 at +109 for 2 units(W)

2nd half slow down to make this a winner
1-0 +2.18 units

NBA Wednesday

Cleveland and New York will meet again, second game in less than a week. Knicks scored only 68 points in the first meet with 40.9 % shooting 50% from the FT line and dismal 2 for 14 from beyond the arc. Getting beat in every aspect of the game Knicks have played low scoring games to the tune of 7 unders out of last 10. Cleveland is trying to stay focused having clinched their spot and though they are 50% on O/U road games when they are matched with below .500 teams the Over is 21-16. NY with the embarrassing loss still fresh on their mind should have a much better scoring tonight. Number is dropping on the total and I will take the Over.

CLE/NYK OVER 182.5 at -100 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Monday

I am playing Denver at Detroit. Looks like a good spot for point drop and that'll be my play.

DEN/DET UNDER 198 at -110 for 2 units(L)

Lost this one in OT!

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Another Under I like with Portland at Chicago.

POR/CHI UNDER 185 at -105 for 2 units(L)
Fourth quarter surge!

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Late night addition.

SAS/GSW OVER 201.5 at -104 for 2 units(W)

1-2 -2.30 units

NBA Saturday

Saturday night's alright for B-Ball. Memphis at Utah boys and girls. Yeah, Grizzlies are running up the score like nobody's business, but they are on the road now. Jazz gave up triple digit points to last 2 opponents and Memphis scoring has peaked against the Lakers. Take the Under against the climbing number.

MEM/UTA UNDER 211.5 -110 for 3 units(L)

0-1 -3.00 units

NBA Wednesday

Today's game I'll take my cue from the good cappers. Not going to go over all the reasoning behind the pick, but T-Wolves makes sense tonight.

MIN +6.5 at -104 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Tuesday

Got to sleep in late. I'm getting a bit one dimensional on my Total and that's something I need to work on, but the picks are hitting and books have not made adjustments against my game. That's because my plays don't follow the majority and I would think books want to beat the majority. So continuing to play against the public perception the game tonight is Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets. Doesn't this game have the first glance look of Under?
Come on, Pacers and Rockets? They've played like 9-1 Under in head to head match up and they are getting historical high number with 192.5, I'm starting to see 191.5, normally this match up gets numbers in 180's. OK, all this is got me looking at the Over. Houston has that front court back court balance that I like on Over's and look at Indy they got O'neil back on 3/14 and he'll be on his 3rd game. Pacers broke the triple digit mark against Atlanta on 3/17 another encouraging sign. I understand there is defensive nature to this game, but going against the grain taking the Over.

Wait a bit more and take the 191.5 or 191. I've got to go so I'm taking the higher number. I might add to it, but may not have chance to post it.

IND/HOU OVER 192.5 at +103 for 2 units(L)

I was not even close. I guess the nature of the game speaks volume.

0-1 -2.00 units

NBA Monday

Not much action on NBA tonight. I will give it a shot with Sacramento Kings at Atlanta Hawks.Both teams have defensive issues I'm sure has been addressed for this match up. I basically look for balance in the back court and front court for the Over to come to play and when this balance lacks from a team I lean Under. When both teams lack balance and comes into a game with over adjustments by the book I'll take the Under. Hawks have been a recent Over team with 4 of 5 Overs set in mid to high 180's. All of last 5 games have been Over with the highest total set at 195.5 Sacramento have also played Over, 4 out of last 5, mostly on points allowed and the public perception is this game to go Over. Number has been climbing and I will take advantage of the higher number.

SAC/ATL UNDER 201 at +100 for 2 units(W)

Well the published time for this pick was little late. I had some problem getting it posted 15 minutes before game time with the total rising. I'll try to get the next pick out earlier.

1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Sunday

I hope my buddy Batis is doing well.
It's Sunday and getting close to game time as look forward to 2 games today.

Houston at Philly was bit tough to swallow, but low number was too tempting. Sure I had my share of disappointments and I'm not completely sold on 76'ers helping this Over. I think they are in a spot to increase their scoring and even if Rockets are in a spot to come down in scoring the number has a good chance for a Over.

HOU/PHL OVER 185.5 at -114 for 2 units(W)

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LA Clippers at NJ Nets are definitely in a spot to drop their scoring. I see it on both sides and I understand Clips getting +5 when they are showing life is a pretty good ATS bet, but Clips hitting last 2 games in triple digits and Nets scoring in the 80's and holding Miami in low 90's is a good sign for a grind'em out match tonight. Besides Nets at home with defend their court and I'm sure that's how it'll play out.

LAC/NJN UNDER 189.5 at -101 for 2 units(L)

1-1 -0.02 units

NBA Saturday

The Over did not have a chance at all last night. I'll take a chance on the rising number tonight with Kings at Magic. Sacramento is on a very tight schedule and they are putting up lots of points and not helping their cause. Orlando has been scoring points, much more than usual, but I still like the Under at home. It just makes sense to me that both of these teams should have defensive mind set tonight.

SAC/ORL UNDER 202 at -104 for 3 units(W)

That was money ball.
1-0 +3.00 units

NBA Friday

Just when my game is on a groove I'm getting backed up with work demands. Killed my Thursday plays which would of hit with Lakers/Nuggets Under 212 and now it's getting late into Friday afternoon. Hope I put in enough thought into this game.
Detroit at Phoenix with Suns coming off a huge victory in Dallas I like the high scoring to continue. Pistons are shooting over 50% though they are coming off a low scoring game in Portland they are attempting low number of shots and that should turn around today.
I'm looking for the final total to land between 203~206.

DET/PHO OVER 201.5 at +101 for 2 units(L)


0-1 -2.00 units

NBA Wednesday

Must be watching too much baseball it always happens this time of the year. Can't be making excuses so I'll crunch the numbers again and this is what I have.
Utah at Orlando. Jazz playing 2nd of back to back in the great state of Florida. Got moosed on the 1st game as Shaq was on the MONEY, can't believe how well he's playing, and now will take on the lowly, but dangerous Magic team at home.
Utah just played a low scoring game in Miami and normally I would consider the points to swing up, but also a mirror situation with back to back where the tendencies of tempo will reflect the previous night and Magic has given up triple digit scoring to last 3 opponents, 4 out of last 5 (three of these on the road) that is an issue they will adjust at home especially to a team above .500 Magic is not built to score into 100's and they will need to step up defensively, protect the home court that's how they have the top Under (12-20) at home.

UTA/ORL UNDER 195 at -108 for 3 units(W)
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This is a spot for rise in points and I will take a shot at fairly low total.

LAC/HOU Over 179.5 at -107 for 2 units(W)
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New York at Toronto. I'm taking a cue from the Line makers and respected cappers are also on this Under

NYK/TOR UNDER 199 at -101 for 2 units(W)
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I've been chasing the elusive Over with Phoenix and this game is not different. Mavs have the defense, but they are playing up tempo game and best defense for Suns are the offense.
This should be a great game.

PHO/DAL OVER 207.5 at +102 for 2 units(W)
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Perfecto!
4-0 +9.04 units

NBA Tuesday

Back to the drawing board. Took a bad Over with Rockets and Suns. Hopefully that's not the case today.

Boston at Chicago. This game I only see the game to go Under. Match up down low is very tough and Boston shooters don't worry me too much. The number eased down from first match up in Boston, but I see Bulls in a spot to come down in points. So under it is.

BOS/CHI UNDER 190 at -105 for 2 units(W)

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2nd game is Sacramento at Cleveland. Scoring has improved on both sides and the total number will reflect the rise, but nature of the game does not change easily and it's important to notice
sudden hikes to settle.

SAC/CLE UNDER 196 at +100 for 2 units(L)

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I failed to publish this game before the 0.5 point move. The game is Utah at Miami which I will back the team with the depth and strong road record in Jazz.

UTA -1.5 for -108 for 2 units(L)

I guess I'm not ready to multi task yet.
1-2 -2.16 units

NBA Monday

I'm still in Florida. Looking forward to Spring exhibition at Ft. Myers, New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox. Pavano and Wakefield, but that's another blog.

OK, back to NBA. The new old look Houston Rockets playing at the valley of the Suns. I have to say Suns are not playing full game. They take the lead and it's like the game is over for them. What the hell are they thinking? Bobcats just about slapped their face. Matrix coming off below average game and Diaw should get back to speed.
Houston is surging with their big man back in the low post and I say new old because the core line up is back, but this team is transitioning and scoring. These guys are not playing in the 80's and 90's any more they will rock the rim to the tune of 100 plus.
Look for both teams to bring their "A" game tonight.

HOU/PHO OVER 205.5 at -103 for 2 units(L)

No dice, the line was moving the wrong way. Should of noticed not to follow the sheep, sheep get slaughtered.

0-1 -2.06 units
*In case your wondering where I'm getting the lines. I still have my Vegas source and it's the original city of sin, but I opened a matchbook account. Wired some funds and I'm back on the net. Clearly they have great prices the only thing is the money limit being set by the guy betting the other side is not enough and I can't get early action. Can't have it all I guess, but I keep looking for that utopia.

Sunday NBA Part II

This is my additional play for late afternoon. Orlando at Houston total has risen since the opening and the number is following the strong offensive showing by Houston. But Orlando's strength is in the low post not afraid contesting the middle and Magic after allowing triple digit scoring should regroup and return to playing their style. Houston is able to adapt defensively and I like the Under in this spot.

ORL/HOU UNDER 187.5 at -108 for 1 unit(L)

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Time to take a shot at ATS.
Why does all the cappers like the depleted Lakers tonight? Only way I see this game is a Dallas blow out. I mean this has to be the ultimate revenge spot. Mavs are at the top of their game and catching Lakers in worst possible position with all these players hurting and out.
No way, no how Mavs lose this game. I'm going big here.

DAL -6 at -110 for 5 units(W)

Lakers biggest margin loss so far this season. So why was everyone on the Lakers?
1-1 +3.92 units

NBA Sunday

Today I'm backing a Total that has over adjusted to the low scoring games in Detroit at Clippers.
Both teams have posted low scoring games and trend on the match up is also pointing to the Under, but Clippers are at home and this may not be a great bounce back spot for the score I still see the number as a weak Under. I take a shot on the Over.

DET/LAC OVER 174.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Looking at late late games. The early game goes in the win column.

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Saturday

I've looking to get the moose off my back and I'll be attacking this game for the Half and Full game. The match up today is New Jersey Nets at San Antonio Spurs. When the Spurs have a climbing score on the road and return home the nature of their game is to turn up the defense and when these two teams grind it out the Total is likely to sink Under.
Nets scoring problem is shadowed by defensive woes and they really need to clamp it down tonight. 187 to 187.5 is a high total set by the books for these two teams and I doubt either teams getting to triple digits tonight.

NJN/SAS First Half UNDER 92 at -110 for 2 units(W)
NJN/SAS UNDER 187 at -110 for 2 units(W)

Recovered!
2-0 +4.00 units

NBA Friday

Hornets at Suns. Here's a interesting thought, New Orleans are an Over team and Phoenix are hitting the Under thanks to the just beyond numbers being set by the line makers. Now the games at the valley of the Suns have the cappers scratching their collective heads. I see the line movement on the Total is getting downward pressure from 209.5 to 209, but this game is due to bust open. Suns are not covering the double digit spreads and almost got caught sleeping against the Cats only to pull away in OT (still losing ATS) and Hornets in last three games have been making bad court decision and shot selection. I see both teams coming in focused and attacking the basket. I look for both teams to top the triple digit mark to take this game Over.

NOH/PHO Over 209 at +100 for 2 units(L)

Crap, another close loser
0-1 -2.00 units

NBA Thursday

I'm waiting on the total to come out for Spurs at Kings. I'm thinking the number should be fairly low on the strength of Spurs defense maybe the number will be luring the Under takers in the low 190's and I would advise to take the Over. Kings are meshing at this point regardless or Artest distraction and they should come out firing at the surging Spurs. I would even consider taking the home dog as the ATS number should rise, but hey my game right now is the Total and that's what I'll stick with. Be back later when the numbers are out. Good luck people.

Sure enough the number is just about where I thought it would land.

SAS/SAC OVER 193.5 at +103 for 2 units(L)

Adding to this play:

SAS/SAC OVER 193 at +100 for 2 units(Push)

Man, I was right there and needed that last shot. Bibby had a off night when I expected him to have the hot hands.

0-1-1 -2.00 units

NBA Wednesday

How did I miss 2 days of NBA? It's tough when my days start at 6am and don't get back till 10pm. Today I'm looking at Bulls at Heat. I know the Bulls are surging with Ben Gordon making some noise, Kirk Hinrich also doing his part and Luol Deng doing it down low, but the game is in Miami tonight with Heat's depth to be tested I'm looking forward to a scrappy game.
Slower tempo and protection of perimeter will take this game Under. Chicago's last game against the Bucks was Over before the OT both teams scoring triple digits in regulation which is not exactly Chicago's style. Miami has held last three opponents in the 80's point range and that's what they need to do to stay in striking distance.

Although this line has moved lower since the opening I will still take a shot.

CHI/MIA UNDER 184.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)

Heat, UNDER...Money!
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Sunday

I was hoping to spend a lazy Sunday, but it didn't turn out that way. I'm not getting into the details, but there was way too many things to do than expected and I was going to pass up on capping the games tonight. Well games are going my way so I'll go with the flow.
The game tonight is Utah Jazz at New Orleans Hornets. Jazz is only -1 ATS on this game and I'm sure it'll be a popular pick. That's a lot of credit to Hornets at home by the line makers.
I'm not going to argue that, but similar to Orlando at Dallas last night only tonight's home court is driven by defensive energy. Jazz have been making opponents struggle for points and for Hornets to have a chance tonight they will have to make it hard on Jazz to score. So I will take the Under 196.5

UTA/NOH UNDER 196.5 at -108 for 2 units(L)

Couldn't keep the run going! Maybe a bit more time and effort.
0-1 -2.16 units

NBA Saturday

Taking a shot at the day game with Boston at New Jersey.
Nets are starting to win games in high scoring fashion, 3 in a row at home with 5 straight games scoring over 100+ points, they've also allowed over 100+ in 3 of those games. Needless to say the Over has cashed 5 out of their last 6. Boston is not built that way they managed to break triple digits against NYK 2/28, PHO 2/21, SAC 2/20, MIL 2/14, MIN 2/11 out of their last 10 games, but that's 50% you'd say? yes dictated by the tempo and I don't think that's the way these two teams match up. Nets have Kidd and Carter playing guards driving into the paint they either score or go to the line I see that Boston surely sees it too. Celtics success is more on Pierce and Jefferson that's guard and forward I see more balance to back and front court.
Unless the outside shooting is red hot I don't see both teams going over the century mark and this game to sink Under

NJN/BOS UNDER 199 at -103 for 2 units(W)

Not even OT can get this game to go Over!
1-0 +2.00 units
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I have a interesting angle on 9:00 eastern game. It's Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks.
Many of you may read my opening and instantly see the pick as Under 189. Well, Magic is 24-36 favoring Under and Mavs are 25-32 favoring Under, but what I see is Magic licking their wound unable to score in San Antonio with only 65 attempts making 28 and getting out boarded 35-43, that is a motivator especially against the top team like the Mavs. Dallas went 95-92 win against the Cavs at home, but much too close than what Mavs are able to do. They did not finish well giving Lebron 2 looks at 3 point try. That's not what a champion team does and Dallas will come in with killer instinct in mind or scoring instinct in mind. All this to me adds up to score going Over the fairly low number.

ORL/DAL OVER 189 at -102 for 2 units(W)

2nd half pushes the number Over!
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Friday

Sorry I traveling today and I'm not going to force a pick today.

NBA Thursday

Taking another over night line with Clippers at Seattle. These two teams are playing right now and they will play again tomorrow. I think the game will sink Under in L.A. and sink Under in Seattle, but I will watch the line thru the morning and take a small position now.

I got a good spot with 199 and no use getting greedy at this point with 196.5, besides the trend is only good as players falter and Ray Allen playing 7 points under his average on the first leg should be factored for tonight. I'd still think Under on 2nd of back to back, but playing it careful.

LAC/SEA Under 199 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

No overtime, easy winner!
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Wednesday

Didn't like anything Tuesday, but I do like the match up in New Orleans. Hawks at Hornets are both in position for scoring increase. Hornets come in on 2nd of back to back with Chris Paul dropping way below his scoring average inside game by Hornets big men did most of the damage, but perimeter shooting was a dud I think they will hit the mark against the Hawks.
Hawks on the other hand got schooled in Dallas with no excuse only attempted 66 shots and 3 tries from downtown making one! But they did run the court 23 fast break points and Joe Johnson did get 29 points in losing cause. The rest of Hawks will need to respond and both teams have been taking the number Over (ATL 7-3) (NO 8-1-1) last 10 games.

ATL/NOH OVER 190 at -110 for 3 units(W)

This one came in right on mark.
1-0 +3.00 units

NBA Monday

Will the fader plays keep coming? We shall see. The game I'm playing today is Portland at Seattle. Both teams get a nice Total at 203 and the nature of the game is Under. I know the Blazers defense is giving up triple digits and Sonics are scoring triple digits, but Blazers on the road gives a bit of a twist on low percentage offense.

POR/SEA Under 203 at -110 for 2 units(W)

About time!
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Sunday

I don't think I'm lacking effort, but maybe time. It's been a busy February and March will be more of the same. I've also strayed away from playing the numbers and it's human nature to want to take the sides. With help of will power I'll take the Under with Kings at Pacers.
It just does not deserve total this high, but what the hell do I know about NBA?

SAC/IND Under 202.5 at -122 for 3 units(L)

Am I surprised? No....110-93 for total of 203

0-1 -3.66 units

NBA Friday

Trying to follow the bouncing ball. I have not been well at all, but all will be well if I can get out of this slump.

Boston will be in L.A. and maybe I would of attended this game if I was home. I just know Lakers are not clicking and Celtics are keeping their game close. I'll take the 8 points.

BOS +8 at -110 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.20 units

It's late Febuary Lets high Pick & Roll

I've neglected NBA for awhile, but baseball's been on my mind. Matter of fact all bets have been off the table for sometime. Don't really have anything smart to say, not that my picks been sharp before, just that I will be backing Cleveland at home. Yes, taking the favorite at home not the Under for a small spot.

CLE -3 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

Still no love from NBA? Should of stuck with the Under.
0-1 -1.10 units

NBA Sunday

It's Superbowl Sunday boys and girls. If you still have the basketball Jones you can follow along and preview the L.A. Clippers at Toronto Raptors. Raptors are good they remind me of last years Clippers. Clippers are getting better though +3 points may not be enough. I do like the defensive nature of this match up with both teams trending lower in scoring for their past two games. 194 Total with recent performance landing between 189~197.5, but front court looks to play tough as the middle will be clogged up with bodies.

LAC/TOR Under 194 at -110 for 3 units(L)

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Playing the Under trend with Detroit at Cleveland.

DET/CLE Under 184 at -110 for 3 units(W)

NBA Friday

Thank God it's Friday. I was sure, sure, sure, Spurs would cover with +7 points last night in Phoenix. Glad I didn't publisher another losing side. I need to keep pounding into my head "STAY WITH TOTALS"

GSW Team Total Over 105 at -110 for 2 units

Coming off two road blow out games both games while averaging about 95 points -10 below their season average, while shooting just 42 percent from the field and 8 percent from beyond the 3-point arc. Do you feel the urgency? I do.

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LAKERS Team Total Over 98.5 at -110 for 2 units

Maybe their not going to pour in 111 points against Pacers, but good chance exceeding 99 points.
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TOR/ATL Over 190 at -110 for 3 units

Bit of the old 10 point rule. If both teams scored 10 points or more above their average in their last games deduct 10 points from their last offensive score and compare to given total. It's still Over 200 points.

NBA Tuesday

It's raining in L.A. not a good day to go out. I'm sure the Freeways will be screwed for rush hour. If you can't leave early mind as well stay late.
I was looking at two games and narrowed it to one. The game I passed was Seattle at Dallas -12 which I like Mavs laying points, but remembered the sides were killing me.
So I'll go with Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers Total 188.5 O/U. Boston will have Wally Szczerbiak, but he will play on short leash. Boston showed no energy getting out boarded 51-38 against Wizards and bench scored only 12 points. So I expect better effort from C's. The current roster just does not have the fire power to out score their opponents. They will need to narrow their attempts and get high percentage conversions. Indy after loosing to Detroit should be eager to get back to winning and that means defending the home court.

BOS/IND Under 188.5 at -110 for 2 units(L)

Sorry for late publishing.
See if I can crunch another game for make up.
----------------------------------------------
Lakers at Knicks Over 204 at -110(OFF LOAD)

I don't care if Kobe's out.
Forget the Over in New York. Let's just stay with my other choice with Dallas -12 and Sonics/Mavericks Over 100 First Half and 199 Game.

DAL -12 at -110 for 2 units(W)
SEA/DAL First Half Over 100 at -110 for 2 units(W)
SEA/DAL Over 199 at -110 for 2 units(W)

3-1 +3.80 units

NBA Monday

It's back to Monday.
Portland Trailblazer at New Orleans Hornets.
This game Total will play out with two different halfs. Hornets are keeping the scoring low, but breaking 179~180 mark can be reached with good FT's.
Looking for First Half to fall below.

POR/NOH First Half Under 90 at -110 for 2 units(L)
-------------------------------------------------

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves Over across the board.
-110 at 2 units each.
First Quarter 52.5(W)
First Half 105.5(W)
Game 210(W)
3-1 +3.80 units

NBA Sunday

Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons.
I like the game in Detroit to go Under. Yes, the Pacers have been giving up points (1/12, 1/15, 1/18, 1/20 four straight Overs with opponents pouring in triple digits) than the tide shifted with 3 straight Unders, one game was a OT Under. The Palace has always been tough for Pacers to score and the books have shaded the number. I'll still go for the Under.

IND/DET Under 185.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

The number is higher now and I understand the dynamics have changed. Current form on both teams looks to take this Over easy, but nothing is easy. Oddsmakers made this call expecting Over action and I should of been smarter to wait on this Total. I'll increase the size at 187.5 or better and take First Half Under.

IND/DET Under 187.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)
IND/DET First Half Under 94 at +100 for 1 unit(W)
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San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers.
Have to take the Spurs. Lakers have given up triple digits in 8 of last 10 games, dropping 8 of last 10 ATS. Spurs are tough pick ATS, but I think they get it done.

SAS -3 at -110 for 3 units(L)

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Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics.
Washington to come out of the gate.

WAS -1.5 First Quarter at -110 for 2 units(L)

Both losses come at single possession! I'm beating myself after vowing to take the numbers and sides kill the day.
3-2 -1.50 units

NBA Saturday

Utah Jazz at New Orleans Hornets.
Hornets are keeping it close and last 10 ATS record is 8-2. Books are all over from 2.5 to 6.5 and taking the middle looks pretty good.
Considering Hornets scored only 88 points in their last two games increased scoring will be likely and Jazz in second of back to back their production may go down, but adjusted scoring looks to higher than any of their previous match up. The Under just looks luring.

UTA/NOH Over 191.5 at -110 for 2 units(L)
This game is going nowhere.
UTA/NOH 2nd Half Under 95.5 -110 for 2 units (L)
I've been making some bad calls, but this one tops the list.
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New Jersey Nets at Denver Nuggets.
I'll take this one Under. Nets are not playing their game.

NJN/DEN Under 210.5 at -105 for 2 units(L)
Can't believe Nets scored so many points.
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LAC First Quarter -1.5 at -110 for 3 units(L)
MIN/LAC First Quarter Under 46.5at -110 for 3 units(W)
MIN/LAC First Half Under 93 at -110 for 3 units(W)

MIN/LAC 2nd Half Over 94 at -110 for 3 units(W)

Bobcats/Warriors Over across the board 2units each at -110
54.5(W)
108(W)
210(W)

Guess I got bit heated. Will stay on the Totals.
6-4 +5.2 units

NBA Friday

Be back later on these two likely plays.

Cleveland at Philadelphia
PHL

Boston at Toronto
BOS

OK, I'll back Boston in Toronto facing the red hot Raptors. It's a bit of buy low sell high play and Raptors giving -8.5 or more is just no value.
Boston is a bottom feeder having lost 9 out of last 10, but ATS 3 out of last 5. Those ATS wins have come against San Antonio, Washington, Atlanta and Detroit.

BOS +9 at -110 for 2 units(W)
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Wednesday

Some early thoughts, but not pulling the trigger yet.

Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Bobcats.
First impression I like the Cats at home getting +6.5 and the Under 187.

76ers at Cleveland. I like the Under 188.

Houston at San Antonio. I like the Over 180.5 and final selection will come in the morning.

My Wednesday selection has nothing to do with thoughts from last night.
Taking the late night game Nets at Golden State Warriors. Don't like East coast team making the trip West. It's the nature of time zone moving forward and Warriors at home coming off a loss in L.A. with ATS cover.

GSW -5 at -110 for 2 units(L)
NJN/GSW Under 205.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

2nd Half Minnesota at Portland Under 91 at -110 for 2 units(L)

0-3 -5.50 units

NBA Tuesday

It's a big game day, the battle of the Cappers. Money players are split and of course the NBA viewers have high expectation for tonight's match up in the North West......Denver Nuggets at Seattle Supersonics.
High octane dynamic duo Mello and AI make their second appearance and the Nuggets are expected to go all the way. Critical point here is the 4th game in 5 days for Nuggets playing on the road, second of back to back. The wagering public has shrug off such notion with 75.27% backing Denver giving up points. In combination the line is showing reverse movement from +3 to +2.5 Sonics. Once again fading the public on +75% team with reverse line movement on the spread.


SEA +3 for 1 unit(L)
Much closer than box score, but loss.
0-1 -1.10 units

NBA Monday

Took a day off Basketball and watched NFL with some friends.
No money selection on Football and had fun. I must of been the only one in the room with nothing riding. It's kind of funny observing people biting their nails. Pats vs Colts was a classic with everyone crammed in front of the TV and we had quite of few people with Pats +3 or +3.5 getting moosed at the end.

Moving on to NBA and fresh off the drawing board.
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers.
I view the Bulls as a streaky team this season much more than a zig zag team. Bulls off of 10 point home loss (-16.5 ATS) to Utah are now on the road (6-12 ATS). Indy is in good form even with season high 4 consecutive SU losses, three of those losses were one possession, and O'neal is going to will this revenge match.

IND -1 at -110 for 3 units(W)
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New York Knicks at Miami Heat.
Where are the books looking to get all the points from? I think this is a ugly game.

NYK/MIA Under 197.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)

Good day at last! I was thinking of thousands of angles before I settled for the two winners above, but I also had thoughts on Batis's play from last season, the old Monday Dog play with Boston home dog, which would of cashed. Ride the Toronto ATS play, which would of cashed. Oh yeah I had Magic & Cavs and Nets & Kings circled to go Under, both would of cashed. Selections and Leans perfect for Monday.
2-0 +5.00 units

NBA Saturday

Orlando Magic at New Jersey Nets.

Nets coming off a rare triple digit scoring for and against at New York.
Orlando giving up 2nd highest home scoring 114 and getting out boarded badly. Adjustments are coming.

NJN/ORL UNDER 180.5 at -110 for 2 units(L)
Not feeling these games lately. The game turn tides in 2nd half taking this Over by a mile.
0-1 -2.20 units

NBA Friday

Raptors are playing again. Why not take the hot team at home? Jazz are not playing quality ball at all, but this is a scary match where the books have placed ATS -1 for the Home team Toronto. If I had to guess Raptors are a bit square play and Jazz may have some chase money riding.
Whatever the case Raptors are on auto pilot for now. I had them pegged to be a top tier ATS team this season and they are still regarded in low ranking. Raptors are not making any headlines, but closing out games.

TOR -1 at -110 for 2 units(L)
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Crooked number for the day is Heat at 76ers. Don't you see Sixers rag tag team getting crushed by Miami riding 5 out of 6 ATS and SU?
Everyone and their grandmother is on Heat so why is the line still 2.5? There are some 3, but that does not look right.

PHL +3 at -115 for 2 units(W)
1-1 -0.20 units

NBA Thursday

Lakers at Mavericks.
Lakers playing 2nd leg of road back to back. Taking out San Antonio Spurs at home SU and ATS. Are the Lakers real contenders? We will see tonight. Lakers are a excellent ATS team much better than Dallas. Sure they have the best home record, but ATS is 10-9-2 and they have tendencies to not cover after a big margin win. 5.5 points over -7.5 for 13 point win margin, maybe not as big as 25 point against Portland, better than 10 point ATS against Spurs and first game of 2007 24 point margin win against Supersonics. All following games Dallas did not cover, one push. Lakers are known for their back to back woes dating back to last season, but when they are brimming with confidence and getting 10 points they look pretty good.

LAL +10 at -110 for 2 units(L)
0-1 -2.20 units

NBA Wednesday

Sacramento at Toronto.
Needless to say I will ride the Raptors even though the Kings are due for a win. If a win is in Sacramento's future I look forward to Boston.

TOR -4.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)
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Phoenix at Houston.
Rockets playing 2nd leg of back to back with another set back, loss of T-Mac at the closing minutes against Dallas. Houston lost by largest margin this year which was held before by loss against Phoenix. T-Mac is listed day to day, but his performance has been dominant when he is on the floor and if he can't get it going, watch out. Suns to come out of the gate.

PHO -1.5 First Quarter -110 for 1 unit(L)
1-1 +0.90 units

NBA Tuesday

Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks.
Rockets are playing good ball no doubt, but the way I see it their momentum is waning. Rockets played their best ball against the Lakers, Jan 10th, the 2 following games they pulled out wins, but not by much and need OT at Kings. Dallas is on the same boat they need OT at Indy and one point win at Toronto. The difference is Mavs having mediocre game is not excusable compared to Houston without Yao. Dallas needs a big win now they're back home the problem is Rockets rarely lose ATS getting +7 points. The way I see it Mavericks cover 1st Half and 2nd Half may or may not be a back door cover, but I think it'll be close with +7 points. We've also seen how active Rockets front court has become and Mavs are not going to give up the inside at home so this should be physical and I like the First Half Under, but half lines are not out yet.

Rockets First Half last 5 games:
1/13 @SAC = HOU 46 points
1/12 @DEN = HOU 44 points
1/10 LAK = HOU 47 points
1/8 @CHI = HOU 30 points
1/7 @MIN = HOU 40 points
Mavericks First Half last 5 games:
1/14 @TOR = DAL 48 points
1/12 @IND = DAL 44 points
1/10 POR = DAL 47 points
1/9 @UTA = DAL 45 points
1/7 @LAL = DAL 51 points

The line was pretty close.

DAL -4 First Half at -110 for 1 unit(L)
HOU/DAL Under 90.5 First Half at 100 for 1 unit(L)
0-2 -2.10 units

NBA Monday

Toronto at Philadelphia.
Don't you love the Raptor coming into a soft schedule? I do.
This back to back spot is against the evolving 76ers not in tuned to stop a surging team. I'll pick my spots with the Sixers, but this game I back the Raptors.

TOR ML +115 for 2 units(W)

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One game that doesn't look right is San Antonio at Chicago. I would say Spurs roll here like everyone else, but -2.5 was the opening at BetCris and -2 at Pinny both of these lines are currently available online. Spurs are solid on the road and Bulls are short handed....should be fairly easy, but don't fall for the Spurs and stay off this. Might even consider a small stake on Bulls at home before game time.

Didn't have a chance to post, but this was a winner too.

1-0 +2.30 units

NBA Sunday

Dallas at Toronto.
Games are getting sketchy and I wouldn't blame anyone to fade my plays, I would. The name of the game is consistency and it really doesn't matter if the games are close if I'm not knocking them down.
If you follow 2 cappers and one is hitting 64% winner and the other is hitting 72% losers who do you follow? The answer is easy, you fade the 72% loser.

So my play on this game is the home dog getting 5 points. The ATS line is moving against the public. Dallas is definitely a public darling and top ATS road team. Dirk powered 43 points against Indy and JeT had 30 points, but Dallas seems to rotate their weapons. Dallas coming off ATS loss and Toronto looking hot (5 out of last 6 ATS).

TOR +5 at -110 for 2 units(W)
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Saturday

Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns.
Magic on their West Coast road trip will be playing a tough set, 2nd leg of back to back, losing to Lakers in the first leg, but taking ATS (*if you waited for Magic +4) win. Also coming off a rare triple digit scoring for and against which doesn't happen much with Orlando. Chances of second of back to back going over +206 with Phoenix as the opponent is not bad, but this season the Suns are playing Under ball (O/U 6-13) .
Orlando's scheme is to control the front court and the board regardless to say they are a Under team.

ORL/PHO Under 206.5 at -120 for 3 units(L)
0-1 -3.60 units

NBA Friday

Post Pinnacle day one.
T-Wolves at Grizz Total is 217.5 OK maybe a head scratcher at this level even with Grizz playing free wheeling basketball. If you look closer to their recent form this number is reachable, but keep in mind the Memphis last 5 games or 10 games, what happened to their defense? It maybe fun basketball, but it takes wins to get to the playoffs. They know that and I know that so the game must evolve to selective execution and time management. Wolves one of the best in the business to take games under on the road. Wolves to out board the Grizz and play pressure defense. I'll take it to go below

MIN/MEN UNDER 218 at -115 for 2 units(L)
MIN/MEN 2nd Half UNDER 208.5 for -110 for 2 units(L)

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WAS/NOH 2nd Half Washington -5 -110 for 2 units(L)

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This game is Orlando at Lakers with Koby less than 100%.
LAL First Half -2.5 -110 for 2 units(W)
ORD/LAL UNDER 198 at -110 for 3 units(L)
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This game is a revenge match with Portland less than 100%.
SAC -1.5 First Half at -110 for 2 units(L)
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Miami at Golden State. Feel Miami on a roll.
MIA ML +197 for 1 unit(W)
2-5 -8.23 units

Pinnacle Sports dropping U.S.

Sorry to see them go. Sharpest and most respected book on the internet I wish Simon well.

So the game goes on. I will revise the lines according the Coast Hotel & Casinos lines from Las Vegas. The Barbary Coast, Gold Coast, Orleans, Suncoast, South Coast, Sam's Town and Fremont. Boyd gaming also includes Stardust, California, Eldorado and properties outside of Vegas.
It doesn't make sense if I'm not on them besides Coast lines come close to the Pinny lines. See how it works out if it's close enough I may return to using Pinny lines for reference and easy checking for everybody.

NBA Wednesday

Hi Gang, I been on the road trip taking care of things in Detroit. I was told the weather has been unusually warm for this time of the year, but it ain't California. Taking a crack at the late game in West Coast with Miami visiting Seattle. I know the match up trends Over, but at 196.5 is a tough sell. I don't see Miami taking the score into triple digits and I projected the number to land between 192~195. This total calls for Seattle to take the game Over. The pace will dictate Under.


MIA/SEA UNDER 196.5 at -108 for 1 unit
----------------------------------------------------------------
Why not take the team cleaning offensive board in the first half. Even with poor shooting Magic are going to close the gap here.
2nd Half ORL+1 at -105 for 2 units

NBA Wednesday

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics. Two Under producing teams meet, Cavs O/U 12-18 & Celtics 14-16. Although these numbers are not profound their recent numbers are Cavs 2-4 last 6 & Celtics 1-5 last 6. Obvious fundamental decline for Celtics scoring is the absence of captain Paul Pierce, O/U 1-5 since Pierce going down. Cleveland is playing 2nd game of back to back with very bad track record of 1-7 ATS and very Under 2-6 O/U. This is also Cavs back to back with the first leg against tough San Antonio Spurs which seems to give teams 2nd day hangovers. I think there is enough cause to speculate the UNDER.

CLE/BOS Under 188.5 at -116 for 2 units

NBA New Year Day 2

Playing the line today. Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets.
This game is showing 78.69% wagerline consensus with 1 point or less ATS movement qualifying for public fade at 75% or higher.

76ers +8 at -121 for 2 units
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Seattle Supersonics at Dallas Mavericks.
I think this is too many points and with a little help from Dallas defense, Sonics with Wilcox trying to make the grade on the interior, it should slip right under the Total.

SEA/DAL Under 195 at -105 for 2 units

NBA 2007

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2007!
Minnesota Timberwolves at Charlotte Bobcats.
Cats coming off unbelievable 113-102 win in Indiana, Adam Morrison breakout 30 point game, before that taking care of Lakers in triple OT.
Minny lost to NJ in last game coming out flat and allowing 100 points.
Wolves are tuned to Cats offensive surge, Charts indicate point drop game for the Cats and defensive game for Wolves.

MIN/CHA Under 190 at -109 for 3 units(L)
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Boston at Portland.
Celtics fade on West Coast swing. Boston playing back to back at the Rose Garden.

POR -3.5 First Half -114 for 3 units(L)
POR 6.5 -116 for 3 units(L)

0-3 -10.17

NBA Friday

Late December play with MIL/CLE , one hot Over team with Buck against one hot Under team with Cavs. Let's see if we can keep this number below the inflated Total. Early line opened at 202.5

MIL/CLE Under 204.5 at -114 for 1 unit(L)
Didn't expect Cavs to score 109.
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Boston Celtics west coast fade play. Warriors at home to gun them down early.

GSW -3 First Quarter -120 for 1 unit(W)
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Kings at Clippers.
Kings are improving with their play looking balanced. Don't trust Clips after schooling Celtics without captain Paul Pierce.

SAC +3 at -103 for 2 units(L)
Kings fall at Staples. I guess it's long been coming with Clippers taking all the beating from Kings.

1-2 -2.20 units

NBA Wednesday

Playing the late game with 76er at Kings.
Somethings is going on in Sacramento. Ron Artest is not happy in Sacramento? It doesn't matter if he plays or not I'm playing the Under in 76er's back to back spot.

PHL/SAC UNDER 196 at +100 for 1 units(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Tuesday

New Jersey Nets at Detroit Pistons.
Pistons played above 100+ in last game and so did the Nets. I would prefer the Under game in New Jersey, but still a spot for point drop. Nets should play inspired in this quick revenge spot with the home game loss coming in the 4th quarter.

NJN/DET Under 187 at -111 for 1 unit(W)

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Look at Celtics at Denver. It's a quick revenge spot for Denver with Paul Pierce missing from Boston line up. This is not Paul's first game out, it's his second game, avoiding the step up game without their star player. Keep in mind AI is on his second game as a Nugget working out the kinks in his transition. For all the fundamental changes on both sides ATS is a no play. Denver is also the most popular pick ATS which makes it even more dangerous. But because of all the fundamental changes this game is bound to go lower. AI is not going to pour it on himself, not in his second game and Kings have shown the way with their zone defense which is what Boston needs to do.

BOS/DEN Under 210 at -110 for 2 units(L)

1-1 -1.20 units

NBA Christmas on ABC

Merry Christmas to all.
Lakers are in Miami for another Christmas match up. I was considering the Under for this game as Heats at home is very much a Under team with O/U 4-10, but that's not reflective of their recent form. 4 strings of Overs in a row was broken in last game against GSW and that wasn't two teams grinding it out, Heats scored 105 points and it was the Warriors that ran out of gas. Lakers had 7 Overs in a row before embarking on this 6 game road trip taking two games Under out of the first 3, but keep in mind Koby has been playing with flu like symptoms, he's feeling much better. Show case game nationally televised with Koby and Dwayne both in a bounce back spot from mediocre scoring games.

HO HO HO

LAL/MIA First Half Over 100 at -115 for 2 units(L)

LAL/MIA Over 199 at -116 for 2 units(L)
That was no good. Hope you guys did better for Christmas.
0-2 -4.62 units

NBA Saturday

Houston snaps their losing streak in San Antonio, 17 in a row against the Spurs at home. It wasn't like Spurs were coming in weak they had 5 game winning streak. It was a flat night for Spurs, but Rockets came in with lots of energy and forced Spur's lowest production of this season...Very impressive.

Poor Los Angeles Clippers got their ass whopped. They were toyed with like man against a child. I think it was the classic case of Dallas team ready to step up with out their big gun Dirk, but Dirk was ok no swelling on his ankle and didn't miss a beat. Mavs were up by 38 points at the end of 3rd quarter. Clips got only 4 offensive boards, 2 by starters and gave up 14 second chance points on the other end. Needless to say Clips suffered their largest margin loss for this season.

Now Clips will get +9 points. Regardless of ATS and back to back situation. Houston Rockets are patting each other's backs and Clips are steaming in their hotel room. As bad as Clips are on the road (1-9) and good as Rockets are at home (8-2) LAC needs to show they are professional basketball players and settle for nothing less than 100% focus on winning in Houston.
Rockets may have Spurs hangover syndrome lacking the energy they showed in San Antonio.
I will take my chance here for at least a ATS cover.

LAC +9 at -112 for 1 unit(W)

LAC 2nd Half -0.5 at 100 for 2 units(W)
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Have some thoughts on Spurs on the road against the Hornets. The Bees by nature of player depletion lacks fire power, but they have been adjusting. Spurs after their lowest point production is in a spot for points increase yet this team does not have the large margin swing.
They are a model of consistency and will simply return to their style of taking care of business methodically shutting down the middle lane and controlling the boards. I see a tough start for Hornets and they better be ready to play scrappy.

SAS/NOH 1st Half Under 91 at -104 for 2 units(L)
Huh, Spurs and Clips were two of the same. Why didn't I play it that way? Being too bent of finding the correct number did me in with the no chance First Half Under. Spurs were mad and Hornets got slamed.

2-1 +0.98 units

NBA Friday

Oh man, Texas grind coming up with Houston at San Antonio. These two teams are running up the score and yet the books opened with 179.5...yes the line is moving up now trading at 181 let's watch this Total. I see Houston just reversed the string of 5 straight Overs at the Rose Garden and Spurs with string of 3 straight Overs have match the most Overs in a row this season. These two teams just match up Under and that's what I'm looking at.

HOU/SAS Under 182 at -114 for 2 units(W)
Rockets win the grind and so does the Under.
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Thursday

Not much for Thursday, but I will have to go Under with Pistons at Cavs. Just waiting for my spot to pull the trigger.

Love the 4 points move to my favor.

Game's not over yet, but like my chances with 71-58 with 8:14 left in the 4th quarter.
I might put up another early line for Friday so stay tuned.

DET/CLE Under 185 at -109 for 2 units(W)
Detroit basketball....87-71 Under by 27 points!
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Wednesday

I've been reading about Sharp money and what people think it means. Everybody has their own definition, but simply this is professional money. What is professional money? Is it handicappers that make a living from sports wagering? Far as I'm concerned only professional money are the bookies. Traditional bookies in the States are still going strong and Off-Shore books have made things easier for these illegal books to offload the difference to balance the wagers they have taken. If there are games likely to take one way action the bookies can hedge these by taking early position. Balanced wagers are the only guaranteed profit for the books collecting juice. I've been around the block, but I have yet to meet a single professional handicapper that does nothing but wager on sports to make a living. Sure there are guys that wager daily, but they all have other income or investments and if they're high profile, so called, professional handicapper they tout for guaranteed money. That's all nothing mystical.

Moving on to Wednesday's game.
Magic is getting healthy and Hornets are coming to town. I give Hornets some credit for their last game against Miami and this game should not be much different with focus on the entire game. The bees at Orlando will likely see better scoring I like this game to reach 180's and that's what I'm playing.

NO/ORL Over 176 at -106 for 2 units(L)
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Playing against the line with GSW/BOS and this will be a short game.

GSW +0.5 First Quarter at +106 for 1 unit(W)
Bigger wager lost and that Over was lost in the first half. Warriors was a thriller and +o.5 was the winning difference. Stay tuned for Thursday.
1-1 -1.06 unit

NBA Tuesday

Taking it easy today. Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns.
I like the game to start fast out of the gate.

TOR/PHO 1st Quarter Over 55.5 at -112 for 2 units(W)
Nothing like couple of winning days to make me smile.
NBA it's fantastic.
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Monday

Playing through the slump rather than taking a break. But if your reading my blog be very cautious. For Monday Golden State Warriors at New jersey Nets.
Warriors playing second of Back to Back road game and they are .500 ATS on the road which is better than Nets 5-9 ATS at home. Nets will be playing their 4th games in 6 days. Warriors are playing their 4th game in 5 days. Fatigue is evident in rebounding differential with both teams. I will take the Under here. Smaller position on GSW.

GSW/NJN UNDER 212 at -105 for 2 units*(Push)
This total kept climbing so hope players hit it at the higher number.

GSW +5.5 at -108 for 1 unit
*betting off Warriors
NO PLAY ON GSW

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Hornets at Heat.
Low numbers between these teams in Miami has the opening at 179. The combination of Hornets O/U road 4-8 combined with Heat O/U home 3-9 is compelling. Still I have to go with the Over even with both Chris Paul and Dwayne Wade in a spot for scoring drop from last game.

NO/MIA OVER 179 -110 for 2 units(W)
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Adding 2 First Quarter plays.

MIA -2 at -112 for 1 unit(W)

DAL -1 at -104 for 1 unit(W)

Whooah
3-0-1 +4.00 units

NBA Sunday

Sorry for missing Saturday plays & selections. I was running around all day including Stars vs Kings day game at Staples. For Sunday I'm planning to make another trip to Staples for Wizards vs Lakers.

Ofcourse I like the Lakers at home. Wizards are surging? Team on the rise? Wiz at home and Wiz on the road is two different animals. Oh, they beat New York and Philly recently on the road... That's not much of an accomplishment. Lakers 13-3 at home, 11-5 ATS with 1 day rest. Lakers own 12-1 vs Wiz last 13 head to head at home.

LAL -4 at -112 for 2 units(L)

Waiting 1st quarter Total with lean to Over.

WAS/LAL 1st Quarter Over 53 at -105 for 2 units(L)

I am going cold. Better look to fade my plays. Any Over, but 1st Quarter. Lakers come up huge in 4th quarter, tie the game and I thought for sure the momentum would take the win and cover....not to be. I guess they used that one up with Houston.

0-2 -4.34 units

NBA Friday

Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls.
Bulls are surging, but interestingly they lost the battle of the glass to Sonics in their last game. The rebound number for the Bulls have been one of the dominant point and key to their success. The low post game is coming to form and today they will return to cleaning glass. The Bucks are not shooting bad they are simply allowing too many points. Now today's total is high as I have seen in a long time between these two teams. Don't see a shootout, Chicago Bulls to control the game.

CHI -2 First Quarter -109 for 2 units(W)
MIL/CHI UNDER 202 at -111 for 2 units(L)
1-1 -0.22 units

NBA Thursday

OK I'm ready to play the hardcourt. The late game is Houston at Golden State. Both teams missing players, but Rockets without T-Mac is the ying without the yang I know Yao misses him. Nelly's boys have been inconsistent Warriors at home needs to come out gunning.

GSW -1 First Quarter -112 for 1 unit(W)
Short and easy.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Was that a game or what. Davis downtown 3 pointer win Warriors SU win Houston cover ATS win. Wow!

NBA Monday

Do I dare to go against the hottest team in NBA. Suns have not lost since 11/18 @UTA 117-120 OT coin flip game and now they have strung 10 SU wins only losing 2 ATS. Orlando has cooled off dropping 3 out of last 5 SU and 4 out of 5 ATS, but they catch Suns in a 4th game in 5 days on the road and taking Magic at pickem looks good to me.

ORL PK -114 for 1 unit(L)
PHO/ORL Under 210 at -104 for 1 unit(W)
1-1 -0.14 units

NBA Sunday

Portland Trailblazers at Toronto Raptors.
It's late and I'm ready to fall asleep. The total has dropped nearly 5 points with 3 points variance between the books. The books failed to correctly narrow Toronto's total and now there is a Under bias. Raps average 100 and the bench improves nearly 9 points at home. Last game (12/8 @Chicago 90-93 SU loss, ATS cover) Morris Peterson returned, 13 points 2 boards, after missing 7 games. Bosh missed most of 2nd quarter with sore knee, but returned 13 points 12 boards (Bosh averages 20.5 points). Portland will go without suspended star Zach Randolph, but expect the rest of the team to step up and offensive bite will go to the guards Jarret Jack, Martell Webster, Juan Dixon and Sergio Rodriguez. Ime Udoka should bounce back, Jamaal Magloire Toronto native and Travis Outlaw coming off a good game.

POR/TOR Over 190.5 at -111 for 1 unit(L)
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Looking to add PHO 1st Quarter ATS. Be back when the line gets posted.

PHO -2 First Quarter -105 for 1 unit(L)
Suns come back in 2nd Half to take this SU & ATS...should of known.

0-2 -2.16 units

NBA Saturday

Back on the Numbers and today's game is Minnesota Timberwolves at Chicago Bulls. Minny coming off a win with rare triple digit scoring and points allowed (12/8 vs UTA 103-110) making today likely for point drop. Road numbers support with O/U 1-8. Chicago even with scoring surge and overall O/U record 11-8 the nature of their game is defensive and more so at home 3-5.

I know the number has dropped a little, but no matter.

MIN/CHI UNDER 189 -109 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Friday

Getting ready for another trip. Some short games for today.

DEN -2.5 1st Quarter -105 for 2 units(W)

ORL -1 1st Quarter -105 for 1 unit(W)

WAS -1 1st Quarter -105 for 1 unit(L)
2-1 +2.95 units

NBA Thursday

Sometimes numbers are luring and dangerous. Take Detroit at Dallas total which opened at 191 and moved up a bit. The game is the return of Mavs to their home court one of the toughest in NBA. Detroit coming off 2 low scoring losses. The averages on recent form shows improvement on points being scored and allowed. Recent games show this to be a bounce back spot on points.
So this should go easy Over with these teams playing into high 90's+, but the problem is Detroit off 2 losses facing a top contender, Pistons will wants this game bad. That means containing the pace to make this in striking range.

DET/DAL Under 191.5 at -109 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 units

NBA Wednesday

Indy plays Under, but it wasn't their defense. Now they're home and they will host the young hot Orlando Magic. Stops have to come here at home if the Pacers are to defend their cout. Like the Under in this match-up. Pacers got the FG attemp number down to 76 after going 85+ for 5 straight games.
Orlando is a Under team O/U 6-13 with road O/U 3-8.

IND/ORL UNDER 189 at -118 for 2 units(W)
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Tuesday

I see 63% consensus on Seattle at home today. I guess the prediction is follow the ATS win with SU win and get things rolling in Seattle. That's hard to buy giving up points at this stage. JJ is quietly leading the scrappy Hawks to top of ATS and tonight they are getting good number. Hawks may have road disadvantage, but Sonics have a bigger home disadvantage.
Lets roll with the Hawks

ATL +5 at -110 for 3 units(L)
Didn't find out Ray Allen was out untill the line dropped to +3.5 and it was classic team step up with their star player out. I would of passed this game with time difference of 15 minutes or so.
0-1 -3.30 units

NBA Monday

I am a big fan of Dallas Mavericks and they are on a amazing run (8-2 L10 ATS and 10-0 SU), but Monday at Washington Mavs may disappoint.
Mavs have beat Kings and Raptors by double digits cruising to both wins and ATS cover. Wizards were embarrassed by Bulls in Chicago and last match (11/21 at Dallas 107-80) was schooled by Mavs. Most recent blow out combined with revenge factor on home court and getting points. On the early wagerline 74% consensus is on Dallas and this line should move at least to -4.5, but at Pinny the money is still on Washington +3.5 at -107.
It's the Monday Dog play and I'm just waiting to get more points.

Another good play here might be Gilbert Arenas to score above his average (25.4 points per game) as he is coming off 10 pints in 21:41 minutes at Chicago. Prop Play is O/U 27 points, I'll pass.

Line is still holding Washington +3.5 at -102 (+4 at -110 & +4.5 at -118) showing signs or sharp line movement where majority is on the Fav and line moves the other way. I may have to take this soon or wait just before game in the mean time hitting the short Overs.

DAL/WAS First Quarter 51.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)
DAL/WAS First Half 102.5 at -105 for 3 units (L)

WTF, game Totals dropped and ATS is not moving!

WAS +4.5 at -116 for 3 units(W) (1 point buy, missed -114)

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If your looking at ATS winners Golden State should be on that list. Nelly has this team purring and their losses have been very tight (L10 games 5 SU losses,
12/2 110-115 MIL by 5, 11/29 106-108 IND by 2, 11/24 129-140 @DEN by 11, 11/22 112-115 DEN and 11/20 110-113 PHO by 3) San Antonio is not covering at home and although this is a revenge situation I see Warriors playing tenacious ball keeping this within 5 points differential.

GSW +8.5 at -108 for 2 units(L)
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Indiana is scoring points 4-1 Over L5 since starting their road trip. So are the Lakers going 4-1 Over L5. This is a game that looks Over on the surface, but Lakers Overs are tied into Koby scoring above his average of 26.4 points when he falls below average Lakers fall short of 100 points. Now in his last game against the Clips Koby scored 29 and team fell short of 100 points. Lakers totals run in streaks 5 Overs just ended with Clips 97-88 (185 with Total at 200) I also think Koby's score will fall to his average or below.
The Pacers have been crashing Overs on the road and I'm suspecting this may have peaked at 12/2 @DEN 101-121 (2nd leg of back to back on road) Indy is not winning by outscoring opponents they are allowing too many points. They have allowed 85+ shot attempts in all 5 of their current road trip when they have held Cleveland 11/24 to 68 and @Orlando 11/22 to 69. Defense returns for the battle at Staples.

IND/LAL UNDER 203.5 at -105 for 2units(W)
3-2 +2.31 units

NBA Sunday

Should I take a break? Maybe I should, but Clippers are simply playing bad and it's not going to help getting Orlando on 2nd of back to back home game.
Play is short and this will be it for tonight.

ORL +0.5 at -116 for 2 units(L)
Can't get any breaks lately.
0-1 -2.32 units

NBA Saturday

Short on time to breakdown these plays, but these are what I'm on.
Play at your own risk....I should have a bounce back day.

PHL/NJN UNDER 198 at -116 for 1 unit(L)

SAC/SAS UNDER -190 at -119 for 1 unit(L)

MIA +1 First Quarter at -112 for 3 units(W)
1-2 +0.65 units

NBA Friday

Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns.
They say Amare's still not 100%, but the man is starting to take over the inside and his moves are getting faster. Talk about big athletic guy with moves he is fun to watch. Suns are tough in December and their offensive surge is right on queue. I just don't like them squandering big leads in the second half.
Bucks getting fat points for the game, but losing on the board and allowing opponents just as many attempts with good looks.

PHO -5.5 First Half at -105 for 3 units(L)
0-1 -3.15 units