YTD 30-34-1 +1.78 units
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets
As the picture comes together in NBA and people continue to eye Cleveland, Los Angeles, Orlando... The aging team from South West will quietly stalk the top contenders. Spurs has strung 3 straight wins in a row. Coming into this game scoring 111 against the Clippers topping 100+ points in 3 wins. The 4th win for this team has been elusive at 6-12, but fundamentally their key Big Three are playing and road wins come 22-13. Hornets dropped 2 and missing Peja, Posey, Chandler they have not scored over 100+ since 3/11. Hornets 4-12 as underdog, 2-7 against winning teams in 2nd half of season.
SAN ANTONIO -1.5 -107 for 1 unit(L)
Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons
Understanding the implications for the Total to fall below is bit of a miss calculation at 184.5? I do see Detroit moving the pace increasing output and 76er should simulate the faster tempo. Maybe come closer to 200 point total.
OVER 184.5 at +100 for 1 unit(w)
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers
Wizards on a back to back with Pacers road game. Agent Zero making his first game back is expected out on the second of back to back, but they looked confident as a team. A team that can score.
OVER 207 at -104 for 1 unit(W)
Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
Have not published this play in a while, but this game has over +75% public on Road favorite Suns. The public play is to be faded or pass and I will take a position with late line move.
Kings +6 at +101 for 1 unit(W)
3-1 +1.94 units
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Saturday, March 28, 2009
NBA Saturday
YTD 28-33-1 -0.16 units
New York Knicks at Charlotte Bobcats.
This is the match up of great ATS teams. Forget their record look at what happens with the spread, NYK 41-30 & Cats 43-29. Cats are pretty good at home 20-17, 22-15 ATS, but outstanding 12-3 second half season against teams with losing record. Considering the risk Knicks are very good on the road 21-12 ATS and 7-2 getting 7 points on the road. With two good ATS teams playing taking the points make sense.
NEW YORK KNICKS +7 at -106 for 1 unit(L)
Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trailblazers
I really don't see Memphis covering at the Garden, but I'm going back to crunching the scoring Total. For all concerned this should be a scoring drop for both team and it should be tough reaching in the 180's.
MEM/POR UNDER 190 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz
Another game that will not reach. Jazz might drop this one at home, but defense and low post plays will be the key.
PHO/UTA UNDER 230 at +101 for 1 unit(W)
2-1 +1.94 units
New York Knicks at Charlotte Bobcats.
This is the match up of great ATS teams. Forget their record look at what happens with the spread, NYK 41-30 & Cats 43-29. Cats are pretty good at home 20-17, 22-15 ATS, but outstanding 12-3 second half season against teams with losing record. Considering the risk Knicks are very good on the road 21-12 ATS and 7-2 getting 7 points on the road. With two good ATS teams playing taking the points make sense.
NEW YORK KNICKS +7 at -106 for 1 unit(L)
Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trailblazers
I really don't see Memphis covering at the Garden, but I'm going back to crunching the scoring Total. For all concerned this should be a scoring drop for both team and it should be tough reaching in the 180's.
MEM/POR UNDER 190 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz
Another game that will not reach. Jazz might drop this one at home, but defense and low post plays will be the key.
PHO/UTA UNDER 230 at +101 for 1 unit(W)
2-1 +1.94 units
Thursday, March 26, 2009
NBA Thursday
YTD 28-32-1 +0.86 units
Today the line has swung widely towards the Lakers (56-14) best in the west. They are on a long road trip, but they are winning. Tonight at Detroit the Pistons are hurting and hurting they will play. It's always dangerous to underestimate your NBA opponent, but it's hard to think these Pistons have any chance or even cover. I will take the Over in this spot as offensive increase looks likely.
Even if Lakers defense limits Pistons I like the chance of Lakers offense making up the difference.
LAKERS/PISTONS OVER 193.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.02 units
Today the line has swung widely towards the Lakers (56-14) best in the west. They are on a long road trip, but they are winning. Tonight at Detroit the Pistons are hurting and hurting they will play. It's always dangerous to underestimate your NBA opponent, but it's hard to think these Pistons have any chance or even cover. I will take the Over in this spot as offensive increase looks likely.
Even if Lakers defense limits Pistons I like the chance of Lakers offense making up the difference.
LAKERS/PISTONS OVER 193.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.02 units
Sunday, March 22, 2009
NBA Monday
YTD 27-31-1 +0.82 units
Miami taking out Detroit at the Palace +7 underdog taking it SU going away. Heat at 100% just about had everyone in double figures and scored into triple figures. Miami looking good, aren't they? Memphis Grizzlies up next at home, Memphis losers of 4 in a row 1-3 ATS. They allowed triple digits to opponents 3 out of last 4. Looking very much like a no brain er. The problem with fading this 5-28 road team is they have covered 10 out of 28 road losses giving them 15-18 ATS record. In opposite Miami is very mediocre 16-19 home ATS. Miami playing 2nd of back to back with Wade coming off a 39 point output may get some breather here with B team getting added minutes. Also like the rising number. Keep in mind Grizzlies are playing improved ball in second half and they were embarrassed by Boston.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +9 at +105 for 1 unit(L)
A rare second game for late night action at the Valley of the Suns.
I know everyone loves the Suns at home and they are destroying their opponents, but Denver getting points here is just too tempting. Take it for what it is, a tightly contested match up, and I'll take the points on all these types of game.
DENVER NUGGETS +3.5 at +104 for 1 unit(W)
1-1 +0.04 units
Miami taking out Detroit at the Palace +7 underdog taking it SU going away. Heat at 100% just about had everyone in double figures and scored into triple figures. Miami looking good, aren't they? Memphis Grizzlies up next at home, Memphis losers of 4 in a row 1-3 ATS. They allowed triple digits to opponents 3 out of last 4. Looking very much like a no brain er. The problem with fading this 5-28 road team is they have covered 10 out of 28 road losses giving them 15-18 ATS record. In opposite Miami is very mediocre 16-19 home ATS. Miami playing 2nd of back to back with Wade coming off a 39 point output may get some breather here with B team getting added minutes. Also like the rising number. Keep in mind Grizzlies are playing improved ball in second half and they were embarrassed by Boston.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +9 at +105 for 1 unit(L)
A rare second game for late night action at the Valley of the Suns.
I know everyone loves the Suns at home and they are destroying their opponents, but Denver getting points here is just too tempting. Take it for what it is, a tightly contested match up, and I'll take the points on all these types of game.
DENVER NUGGETS +3.5 at +104 for 1 unit(W)
1-1 +0.04 units
Thursday, March 19, 2009
NBA Thursday
YTD 26-31-1 -0.18 units
Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks. This game has it's advantages in the Total where Mavs have compiled O/U 33-35 which is Road O/U 13-22. Hawks are O/U 16-21 as favorites 1-6 against Southwest 7-17 in non-conference game. All coming together after both teams played Over and recent game patterns suggest a drop in production.
DAL/ATL UNDER 196.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit
Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks. This game has it's advantages in the Total where Mavs have compiled O/U 33-35 which is Road O/U 13-22. Hawks are O/U 16-21 as favorites 1-6 against Southwest 7-17 in non-conference game. All coming together after both teams played Over and recent game patterns suggest a drop in production.
DAL/ATL UNDER 196.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
NBA Wednesday
YTD 25-31-1 -1.27 units
NJ Nets at NY Knicks is the game that stuck out immediately. It was +7 for visiting Nets with money slightly more on Nets, but holding steady. The last game was NJ -5 which PUSHED and 3 previous meeting was 7 ~ 7.5 and NY has taken 4 out of last 6 with 1 push to direct this selection little further NJ comes to MSG logging 4 straight losses SU & ATS last one at Denver was 25 point blow out loss while NY comes winner of 4 straight ATS & 3 out of 4 SU bringing both teams back to the circle the same match up that took place 3/08 in New Jersey 101-106 loss for NY and ATS PUSH. So two teams that went in different direction meet again. Knicks have been playing well and given the balance better matched, but Nets haves managed to work the paint against these Knicks and compensated the lower FG%. NJ is much better road ATS team and NY similary good on the road, but not giving points at home. Taking the points and visiting Nets.
NJ NETS +7 at +109 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.09 units
NJ Nets at NY Knicks is the game that stuck out immediately. It was +7 for visiting Nets with money slightly more on Nets, but holding steady. The last game was NJ -5 which PUSHED and 3 previous meeting was 7 ~ 7.5 and NY has taken 4 out of last 6 with 1 push to direct this selection little further NJ comes to MSG logging 4 straight losses SU & ATS last one at Denver was 25 point blow out loss while NY comes winner of 4 straight ATS & 3 out of 4 SU bringing both teams back to the circle the same match up that took place 3/08 in New Jersey 101-106 loss for NY and ATS PUSH. So two teams that went in different direction meet again. Knicks have been playing well and given the balance better matched, but Nets haves managed to work the paint against these Knicks and compensated the lower FG%. NJ is much better road ATS team and NY similary good on the road, but not giving points at home. Taking the points and visiting Nets.
NJ NETS +7 at +109 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.09 units
Saturday, March 14, 2009
NBA Saturday
YTD 24-31-1 -2.27 units
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
Going against the tired home team and taking San Antonio with points
SPURS +2.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
Going against the tired home team and taking San Antonio with points
SPURS +2.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit
Friday, March 13, 2009
NBA Friday
YTD 24-30-1 -1.20 units
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors.
Dirk Nowitzki is putting the Mavs on his shoulders. Can the Big German haul this team through the Western swing? They have the momentum, but Warriors have their weapons back with Monta Ellis back in action.
There is an offensive expectation at O/U 224 which is reachable in a sense Dallas has exceeded +200 total 4 straight out of last 10 games and total doesn't go below 200 for the Warriors, but went Over in last 2 games both totals in 220's
I'm going against the Over and look for Dirk to keep it steady at the post.
DAL/GSW UNDER 224 at -107 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.07 units
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors.
Dirk Nowitzki is putting the Mavs on his shoulders. Can the Big German haul this team through the Western swing? They have the momentum, but Warriors have their weapons back with Monta Ellis back in action.
There is an offensive expectation at O/U 224 which is reachable in a sense Dallas has exceeded +200 total 4 straight out of last 10 games and total doesn't go below 200 for the Warriors, but went Over in last 2 games both totals in 220's
I'm going against the Over and look for Dirk to keep it steady at the post.
DAL/GSW UNDER 224 at -107 for 1 unit(L)
0-1 -1.07 units
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