Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets.
I was looking at Dallas games the two past games 12/26 & 12/27 to be specific. Two consecutive games where Mavs cracked the century scoring mark, first game Total exceeding +200 and second landing on 200, and thought about this one falling below 200. What do you know? This game Total sitting on 198.5~199 moving up from 197. Looking at Houston coming off a game scoring 108 and giving up 100 which is a rarity in regulation that's happened 3 times (scoring and allowing triple digits) in December. That's normally followed with drop in score. The last time these two teams met, 12/18 @Dallas 100-100 regulation 116-108 O.T. win and cover by Houston, was also an unlikely Over with 62 points scored in 4th quarter. So why would you not take UNDER 199? Because there's not enough room in Texas and divisional games are fought basket for basket. Mavs averaging 103 in this spot & giving up 100. Rockets are 102 offense and 105 defense making Over the play. There's movement swinging both ways so key in entry point you might consider breaking up position for cost averaging.
OVER 100 First Half (W)
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
NBA Wednesday
Charlotte Bobcats at Toronto Raptors.
The similarity shared by these two teams are the home court advantage and road disadvantage. Which in simplest term means Raps win at home. Here's where it get tricky. Raps 10-5 at home only failed to cover once, 12/8 giving up -7.5 to Minny and last home loss 12/11 to Atlanta going 6-1 in December at home, 5-2 ATS, pretty solid. Compared to Cats played six December road games perfect 0-6 giving Toronto enough to get the public nod making the Bobs somewhat of underestimated foes. Toronto also took a bad beat last time these two teams met in Charlotte so you think Raps will have payback in mind coming in with 4 wins in a row. But all those good thoughts are suspect. Raps revenging games are 8-11 ATS, against South East opponents 2-8 ATS and overall 50% in December games. Charlotte 11-3 ATS against sub .500 teams, 10-2 against teams allowing +99 points. Doesn't Charlotte have a chance to be the 3rd team to beat Raptors in December at home? Maybe maybe not, but I'll take the points and look for the Cats to keep it fairly close.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +6(W)
Cover baby!
The similarity shared by these two teams are the home court advantage and road disadvantage. Which in simplest term means Raps win at home. Here's where it get tricky. Raps 10-5 at home only failed to cover once, 12/8 giving up -7.5 to Minny and last home loss 12/11 to Atlanta going 6-1 in December at home, 5-2 ATS, pretty solid. Compared to Cats played six December road games perfect 0-6 giving Toronto enough to get the public nod making the Bobs somewhat of underestimated foes. Toronto also took a bad beat last time these two teams met in Charlotte so you think Raps will have payback in mind coming in with 4 wins in a row. But all those good thoughts are suspect. Raps revenging games are 8-11 ATS, against South East opponents 2-8 ATS and overall 50% in December games. Charlotte 11-3 ATS against sub .500 teams, 10-2 against teams allowing +99 points. Doesn't Charlotte have a chance to be the 3rd team to beat Raptors in December at home? Maybe maybe not, but I'll take the points and look for the Cats to keep it fairly close.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +6(W)
Cover baby!
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
NBA Tuesday
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers.
If you feel Lakers are a bit uninspired I can't blame you they failed to cover 3 out of last 4 and Phoenix wire to wire, did not lose any quarter. It wasn't Lakers scoring it was defense. So will they clamp it down against the Warriors? Golden State is on second leg of back to back beating the mighty Celtics and they have to be pumped for the Lakers. I think the Total will remain high and the number is retreating the wrong way.
OVER 217.5(W)
There was no doubt
If you feel Lakers are a bit uninspired I can't blame you they failed to cover 3 out of last 4 and Phoenix wire to wire, did not lose any quarter. It wasn't Lakers scoring it was defense. So will they clamp it down against the Warriors? Golden State is on second leg of back to back beating the mighty Celtics and they have to be pumped for the Lakers. I think the Total will remain high and the number is retreating the wrong way.
OVER 217.5(W)
There was no doubt
Sunday, December 27, 2009
NBA Sunday
Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers.
Celtics are one of those teams with odds makers making good spread adjustments keeping them just below .500 ATS. That's a team with 23-5 record to 13-15 ATS ratio which means they've dropped 10 games giving points. Within the last 10 games played they failed to cover 4 and one was SU & ATS making them 50%.
Clippers are sub .500 team with ATS slightly worse. Spread is not helping and makes them a good fade candidate. Effort has been lacking in situational spots and Clips will face one of the best road team in NBA.
ATS has been widening and this game cones on heels of Boston beating Magic in Orlando by 9 points, 14.5 ATS, compared to Clippers loss by 31 points, 21 ATS, which is a good spot for Los Angeles. Let's look for climbing ATS to help the home team.
Clippers +8.5(W)
Didn't need no points
Celtics are one of those teams with odds makers making good spread adjustments keeping them just below .500 ATS. That's a team with 23-5 record to 13-15 ATS ratio which means they've dropped 10 games giving points. Within the last 10 games played they failed to cover 4 and one was SU & ATS making them 50%.
Clippers are sub .500 team with ATS slightly worse. Spread is not helping and makes them a good fade candidate. Effort has been lacking in situational spots and Clips will face one of the best road team in NBA.
ATS has been widening and this game cones on heels of Boston beating Magic in Orlando by 9 points, 14.5 ATS, compared to Clippers loss by 31 points, 21 ATS, which is a good spot for Los Angeles. Let's look for climbing ATS to help the home team.
Clippers +8.5(W)
Didn't need no points
Saturday, December 26, 2009
NBA Post Christmas Saturday
Sup everyone. Did the Christmas thing and now it's back to business.
Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz.
Good team bad team scenario again. What you want to watch in this spot is Sixers narrowing margin against ATS. Currently it's going more or less sideways. On Philly's winning games it comes off single possession difference margin of 2 or 3. That type of game has been followed by very good effort, that is not the case today. Jazz coming off a bad beat is ready to rock the rim. Let's go with Utah back in Salt Lake city.
UTAH JAZZ -7(W)
Keep on keeping on!
Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz.
Good team bad team scenario again. What you want to watch in this spot is Sixers narrowing margin against ATS. Currently it's going more or less sideways. On Philly's winning games it comes off single possession difference margin of 2 or 3. That type of game has been followed by very good effort, that is not the case today. Jazz coming off a bad beat is ready to rock the rim. Let's go with Utah back in Salt Lake city.
UTAH JAZZ -7(W)
Keep on keeping on!
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
NBA Wednesday
Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings.
When looking at this match up most players know Cavs play well away and Kings play well at home. The other standout trend is Cavs play Over away and so does the Kings at home. So when comparing these two trends doesn't it make better sense to take the Over than choosing sides? Simplicity is sometimes bliss, but considering the Over, which is a pretty popular take, the number has climbed quite a bit since opening at 202. There should be a second take on this number which all indicator pointed to being too low. The schedule sequence makes this a tough spot to score with Cavs playing 3 sets of back to back in last 10 games, Kings played 4 sets. Cavs last game scoring 109 ties highest score in last 10 games which calls for a drop down spot in score. Kings last game scoring 102 is on the high side for away game and may not translate to lower scoring at home, but Cavs holding opposition to 93 or so is good enough to buck the rising number.
UNDER 204.5 at -103
Shot myself thinking too much
When looking at this match up most players know Cavs play well away and Kings play well at home. The other standout trend is Cavs play Over away and so does the Kings at home. So when comparing these two trends doesn't it make better sense to take the Over than choosing sides? Simplicity is sometimes bliss, but considering the Over, which is a pretty popular take, the number has climbed quite a bit since opening at 202. There should be a second take on this number which all indicator pointed to being too low. The schedule sequence makes this a tough spot to score with Cavs playing 3 sets of back to back in last 10 games, Kings played 4 sets. Cavs last game scoring 109 ties highest score in last 10 games which calls for a drop down spot in score. Kings last game scoring 102 is on the high side for away game and may not translate to lower scoring at home, but Cavs holding opposition to 93 or so is good enough to buck the rising number.
UNDER 204.5 at -103
Shot myself thinking too much
Saturday, December 19, 2009
NBA Saturday
Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers.
This is the tale of 2 under performing teams with L.A. holding the better record. As with losing teams they try to float above water at home and struggle on the road. Clippers are playing better of late SU, but ATS is fairly close. Schedule is also similar with both teams coming in on 3 games in 4 days on back end of back to back. So you look closer to the first game of back to back where Clippers came out hot against the Knicks in MSG than faded away in the second half. 76ers trailed the Celtics and came back in the 2nd half. You take the 2nd half winner 76ers at home on a short line.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -2.5(L)
Damn! Had 2nd half momentum and could not close the deal. OT on home court? Come on Sixers you break my heart.
This is the tale of 2 under performing teams with L.A. holding the better record. As with losing teams they try to float above water at home and struggle on the road. Clippers are playing better of late SU, but ATS is fairly close. Schedule is also similar with both teams coming in on 3 games in 4 days on back end of back to back. So you look closer to the first game of back to back where Clippers came out hot against the Knicks in MSG than faded away in the second half. 76ers trailed the Celtics and came back in the 2nd half. You take the 2nd half winner 76ers at home on a short line.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -2.5(L)
Damn! Had 2nd half momentum and could not close the deal. OT on home court? Come on Sixers you break my heart.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
NBA Thursday
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat.
Hope everyone is doing well. This game will feature a contender from South East, Orlando Magic (19-6) deadly away as home makes no difference. Magic strung 5 game winning streak and 6 game winning streak, currently on 2 wins in a row, making this stretch 13-3 since Nov. 13th. Coming off a dominant game win against Raptors at home Magic goes for 7 wins out of 8 trips to Miami. This has to be a tall order for Miami Heat. They did win last game at home against Raptors, but they are 4 losses out of last 5 home games. Heat also beat Magic in last match, but Magic are good revenge team and good back to back team. Yet I am incline to take Miami Heat at home. ATS 15-10 is good money making record, but not as threatening as 19-6 and this sequence bring Magic to 3 games in 4 days. Orlando Magic is no doubt the public play and offshore has been holding that line, but starting to inflate.
MIAMI HEAT +4.5(W)
News flash! Miami Heat blows out Orlando Magic! Who could of guess it?!
Hope everyone is doing well. This game will feature a contender from South East, Orlando Magic (19-6) deadly away as home makes no difference. Magic strung 5 game winning streak and 6 game winning streak, currently on 2 wins in a row, making this stretch 13-3 since Nov. 13th. Coming off a dominant game win against Raptors at home Magic goes for 7 wins out of 8 trips to Miami. This has to be a tall order for Miami Heat. They did win last game at home against Raptors, but they are 4 losses out of last 5 home games. Heat also beat Magic in last match, but Magic are good revenge team and good back to back team. Yet I am incline to take Miami Heat at home. ATS 15-10 is good money making record, but not as threatening as 19-6 and this sequence bring Magic to 3 games in 4 days. Orlando Magic is no doubt the public play and offshore has been holding that line, but starting to inflate.
MIAMI HEAT +4.5(W)
News flash! Miami Heat blows out Orlando Magic! Who could of guess it?!
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
NBA Wednesday
Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks.
Koby and Lakers impressing you? World Champs going for repeat? Maybe. They right the ship taking out the weak Bulls in Chicago. Yeah, but they didn't cover. It's a simple plan I'm going against them on the road. Lakers on double set of back to backs coming up tonight on second leg of second set. Bucks at home 8-4 ATS and they are on a mini roll. Lakers away 1-5 ATS on 3 game straight no cover. Just rolling with it.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS +6(W)
Good game Koby, but Bucks take the money!
Koby and Lakers impressing you? World Champs going for repeat? Maybe. They right the ship taking out the weak Bulls in Chicago. Yeah, but they didn't cover. It's a simple plan I'm going against them on the road. Lakers on double set of back to backs coming up tonight on second leg of second set. Bucks at home 8-4 ATS and they are on a mini roll. Lakers away 1-5 ATS on 3 game straight no cover. Just rolling with it.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS +6(W)
Good game Koby, but Bucks take the money!
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
NBA Tuesday
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
Tonight's gonna be a good night and both of these teams should be ready for a game after their tough schedule sequence. Suns did a double back to back with 2 days between, but first sequence was 3 games in 4 days which they promptly lost the first sequence of back to back and though rested for Sacramento they were killed by L.A. in the second of back to back.
Dallas coming off 3 games in 4 days sequence also lost the back to back. On their second game Mavs only attempted 67 shots and out done in the paint 34 to 10.
Now it's the bounce back game and the Total is seemingly high. BookMaker opened at 215.5 dropped a point, where many lines hold, and shaved another 0.5 to 214. I do admit the opening total I expected was 213 and was surprised by the high number, but plus minus 2 points is still in range. The total is dropping and priced UNDER, but this number is still 2nd highest seen in Dallas games and Mavericks going UNDER on all games this season above 203.5 maybe makes you uneasy or Phoenix last OVER game was 7 games ago makes you nervous. It's the perception shared by the wagering public, but both good teams coming off such dismal scoring and had time to soak it in come meet in this match up.
OVER 214(L)
That was a loser, but I will return.
Tonight's gonna be a good night and both of these teams should be ready for a game after their tough schedule sequence. Suns did a double back to back with 2 days between, but first sequence was 3 games in 4 days which they promptly lost the first sequence of back to back and though rested for Sacramento they were killed by L.A. in the second of back to back.
Dallas coming off 3 games in 4 days sequence also lost the back to back. On their second game Mavs only attempted 67 shots and out done in the paint 34 to 10.
Now it's the bounce back game and the Total is seemingly high. BookMaker opened at 215.5 dropped a point, where many lines hold, and shaved another 0.5 to 214. I do admit the opening total I expected was 213 and was surprised by the high number, but plus minus 2 points is still in range. The total is dropping and priced UNDER, but this number is still 2nd highest seen in Dallas games and Mavericks going UNDER on all games this season above 203.5 maybe makes you uneasy or Phoenix last OVER game was 7 games ago makes you nervous. It's the perception shared by the wagering public, but both good teams coming off such dismal scoring and had time to soak it in come meet in this match up.
OVER 214(L)
That was a loser, but I will return.
Sunday, December 06, 2009
NBA Sunday
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers.
Here comes the Suns after a on road back to back loss they are back on track taking out Sacramento shooting 115 points. Back on track ready to hand Lakers their 4th loss if not their 11th ATS loss. Phoenix getting 9.5 their second most points received 15-5 team on a revenge spot has to be intriguing. Offense is back scoring triple digits and Lakers looked like they were slipping against Miami. Would this be a good spot even on a back to back? Favorite with double digit spread no cover on second sequence giving up double digits should be faded, true, but when looking at Lakers SU win at home on a circus shot by Koby I consider that a loss and Suns are not a good back to back team or a revenge play team. Books have also kept this just below the double digit number handing a 9.5 which has been holding.
I take the refocused Lakers. In the paint baby.
LAKERS -9.5 at +108 for 1 unit(W)
Too much Lakers for Suns on back to back
Here comes the Suns after a on road back to back loss they are back on track taking out Sacramento shooting 115 points. Back on track ready to hand Lakers their 4th loss if not their 11th ATS loss. Phoenix getting 9.5 their second most points received 15-5 team on a revenge spot has to be intriguing. Offense is back scoring triple digits and Lakers looked like they were slipping against Miami. Would this be a good spot even on a back to back? Favorite with double digit spread no cover on second sequence giving up double digits should be faded, true, but when looking at Lakers SU win at home on a circus shot by Koby I consider that a loss and Suns are not a good back to back team or a revenge play team. Books have also kept this just below the double digit number handing a 9.5 which has been holding.
I take the refocused Lakers. In the paint baby.
LAKERS -9.5 at +108 for 1 unit(W)
Too much Lakers for Suns on back to back
Friday, December 04, 2009
NBA Friday
Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz
Jazz men last played on 11/30 scoring 120 and holding Memphis to 93 points. It was one of their best shooting game at 58%, but they also shot 60% before that and nearly 61% before that. The last 3 games have really inflated their FG% and the Total. Jazz shoot well I agree and their Over is 7 out of last 10, but rising score has peaked. Narrowing spread indicating opening number to be inflated by smart money. Pacers offense should yield below 100 today in Salt Lake city the concern should be points allowed which has exceeded 100 points 8 out of last 10, out of the 8 it has hit above 109 five times, but I think below 109 is more likely according to ATS movement. Go against the rising number.
UNDER 210.5(W)
Jazz men last played on 11/30 scoring 120 and holding Memphis to 93 points. It was one of their best shooting game at 58%, but they also shot 60% before that and nearly 61% before that. The last 3 games have really inflated their FG% and the Total. Jazz shoot well I agree and their Over is 7 out of last 10, but rising score has peaked. Narrowing spread indicating opening number to be inflated by smart money. Pacers offense should yield below 100 today in Salt Lake city the concern should be points allowed which has exceeded 100 points 8 out of last 10, out of the 8 it has hit above 109 five times, but I think below 109 is more likely according to ATS movement. Go against the rising number.
UNDER 210.5(W)
Thursday, December 03, 2009
NBA Thursday
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors.
242, 233, 227, 222, 214, 212, 204, this is the sequence of Warriors last 7 games coming to a peak. Last indicator noted on 11/14 @MIL 264 before dropping down 2 games in a row. The Warriors have been on Over trend 7 out of last 10 and this match up with Houston has track record for going Over. However this game calls for Under. 187, 191, 176, 239, 219, 208, 181, 216, 192, 209 Rockets last 10 game totals are classic hi-low sequence coming up on hi game, but considering the differential between games and this match following a peak total by Warriors will not make 221. This one looks to top out below 218.
UNDER 221 -110 for 1 unit(W)
So I missed the Total by 2 points. Good thing I had a 3 point cushion.
1-0 +1.00 unit
242, 233, 227, 222, 214, 212, 204, this is the sequence of Warriors last 7 games coming to a peak. Last indicator noted on 11/14 @MIL 264 before dropping down 2 games in a row. The Warriors have been on Over trend 7 out of last 10 and this match up with Houston has track record for going Over. However this game calls for Under. 187, 191, 176, 239, 219, 208, 181, 216, 192, 209 Rockets last 10 game totals are classic hi-low sequence coming up on hi game, but considering the differential between games and this match following a peak total by Warriors will not make 221. This one looks to top out below 218.
UNDER 221 -110 for 1 unit(W)
So I missed the Total by 2 points. Good thing I had a 3 point cushion.
1-0 +1.00 unit
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