I'll go with the Suns team total to score their average.
Are you guys watching this move? Suns at Mavs total has come down to a level not seen in this series. All the games coming in Under is driving the money flow to Under. But when the books move 5~6 points that's telling you something, (1) key player not playing (2) books correction which says they have been wrong with their previous numbers. Most of the time it's (1), but not the case today. Are the books admitting to their error? Did they set the bar too high ?
Or how about, books have a Over bias for today's match they feel the game total to exceed 210
that's where Pinnacle opened and it quickly took the Under money. Other books watched Pinny, BetCris and other early lines and just followed.
I want to see another blow for blow scoring game.

PHO TEAM TOTAL OVER 99.5 at -111 for 2 units(W)
PHO/DAL 1st Quarter Over 52.5 at -107 for 3 units(W)
PHO/DAL 1st Half Over 104 at -105 for 2 units(W)

Sometimes you feel like a nut, sometimes you don't.

3-0 +7.00 units

Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons.
This is a elimination game for Pistons at home.
Lets see if the past are any indication for the future.

Scores by Quarters:
Game 4 at Miami American Airlines Arena Monday 5/29:
DET: 17 21 22 18 = 78
MIA: 23 21 18 27 = 89
The big numbers for this game is Dwayne Wade 31 points and big portion of this number is free throws, 15 for 19 attempts. This free throw number inflates to 28 for 47 attempts by Miami so the beating could of been much worse for Detroit. Another differential is fast break points Detroit 2 Miami 11.
The dynamic dual of Wade and Shaq did most of the damage only Haslem is the third player with double digit points. Role players concentrated on defense holding Detroit to 39% shooting. No Detroit starting four scored over 15+ points.

Game 3 at Miami American Airlines Arena Saturday 5/27:
DET: 24 14 24 21 = 83
MIA: 26 23 25 24 = 98
Wire to wire Miami at home. Dwayne Wade 35 points, Shaq 27 points, role players Walker 11, Haslem 10. Domination in the paint Pistons 16 to Heat 50, board Pistons 27 to Heat 40. Detroit guards scored 51 combined points, but low post was all Miami and can't win games that way. Very noticeable on this game was Prince almost no-show.

Game 2 at Palace of Auburn Hills. Thursday, May 25 2006.
MIA: 12 25 19 32 = 88
DET: 25 23 22 22 = 92
Box score tells the story. Detroit came out red hot which was more about shutting down the opponent scoring their possession then pacing the rest of the game almost getting caught at the end, losing ATS. Wade and Shaq got their combined 53 points, Walker got 11 points, but forced a lot of bad shots taking 3 for 12 attempts and 1 for 7 from 3 point land. Role players took tough shots and didn't make many. Detroit starting four plus Big Ben did not give up the paint or rebounds, played balanced ball on both ends and got to the free throw line better than Heat.

Game 1 at Palace of Auburn Hills. Tuesday, May 23 2006.
MIA: 33 15 18 25 = 91
DET: 25 19 17 25 = 86
Interesting game on the part of rested Miami where role players exceeded the dynamic dual, with foul troubles, in performance and time on the floor.
Heat came out hot and paced the rest of the way saving Wade and Shaq the wear and tear. Heat shot the ball exceptionally well and controlled the low post.

Everybody likes Heat +6 ATS, Pinny opened at +7 moved to +6.5 and now +6, as Miami have taken all ATS and all Unders with Detroit in Conference finals. ATS has been steady with Detroit getting numbers due to elimination which is not a surprise, but Totals have been on the decline with each match up falling under 181.5 and this number is more about Detroit's inability to score consistently with the starting four, Billups, Rip, Rasheed and Prince, in higher percentage. The tempo is certainly what Pistons are use to and if' they're not giving up the paint or the board, which I don't expect for the elimination game, Detroit needs to feed Prince and Rasheed to execute and attack the basket not just Chauncy and Rip. I have a feeling Flip and Rasheed has worked out their differences for the good of the team. The zone defense Pistons used in the 3rd quarter of last game got them back in it for awhile, Flip says he'll be using it more, but Heat adjusted Wade took over and Miami scored 27 points in the 4th quarter.

So is the public correct in playing the momentum of Heat and the dynamic dual or Detroit due to make their stand at home possibly covering ATS? I like to see how this plays out too, but I'd say -6 to -7 is going to be very close maybe SU Pistons win no cover. Nothing I'd put my money on, but if Miami's going to win it it'll be in Miami Game 6.

My take is this. 2 units across.
Outcome prediction: 89-97 Detroit.

MIA/DET First Quarter 45.5 at -101 for 2 units(L)
(Priced at -101 waiting on even or better - never got better)
MIA/DET Fourth Quarter 45.5 at +105 for 2 units(L)

MIA/DET 1st Half Over 89 at -109 for 2 units(W)
(Priced at -125 with 1.5 points buy waiting on -120 or better)

MIA/DET Over 179.5 at -121 for 2 units(L)

Don't like the progress of this game. I'm reversing the Total for 2nd Half and taking Detroit to cover 2nd Half.

MIA/DET 2nd Half Under 90.5 +105 for 3 units(W)

DET 2nd Half -2.5 +100 for 3 units(W)

3-3 +1.71 units

Gone fishing be back monday night.

We're still playing the hard court in Texas.

DAL 1st Quarter -2.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

Feeling my way for the Conference Finals. Detroit failed me last night.
I'm leaning on Dallas today, but I'm going to let the 1st half play out.
Mavs should remain the same, come out aggressive to the basket in the first half and clamp down for the 2nd half. Suns are going to come out guns blazing and try to steam roll through Dallas.
Taking a strong 1st quarter trend.

PHO/DAL 1st Quarter Over 56.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)

That was a great match up. MLB & NBA combined perfecto!
1-0 +2.00 units

Miami at Detroit Eastern Conference Finals game #1.
The rematch everyone was expecting. The players are saying rested Heat if they're going to fight they must take one in Detroit. They're ready, willing and able. The dynamic dual of Shaq and Dwayne will bring their game to the Palace. Heat with +5.5 points are the way to go......
I'm not all the way sold on Miami with 6 days without play.
Detroit was not all there in the Cleveland series, but even in bad times Pistons defense kept them in game and ultimately played Detroit basketball to take game 7 in dominant fashion. When this team comes to life it's tough to compete especially at the Palace. The dynamic dual will get their scores, but the supporting cast of Heat may get shutdown.
That's my devils advocate for those thinking easy Miami money.
But I'm not all for giving up -5.5 points either.
I will go with the Detroit Playoff home 1st quarter record 5-2 ATS with recorded wins by minimum margin of 6 points.

DET 1st Quarter -1.5 at -110 for 2 units(L)
Players were right Miami did bring their game on the road.
0-1 -2.20 units

I do have three future wager which will depend on today's outcome with Clips and Mavs. For the Western Conference and Mavs at Spurs will decide the payout on that series.

My thoughts on Dallas at Spurs for today.
The series comes to this and 81.7% home court 7th game winner is a very big number combined with Spurs 15-4 ATS tied in playoff series, but Mavs are getting points tonight with 12-3 ATS after a loss as favs. I already have Mavs to move on and I'm playing this on the First Half.
Mavs have never trailed in this series at the Half and they are 5-1 ATS (1st half) for the series.

DAL 1st Half +2 at -106 for 1 unit(W)

I knew I should of gone bigger instead of smaller. My coming off ATS loss Cavs must of gave me some jitters. It's 2 units or better rest of the way folks.
Yeah Dallas baby. Let's ride them to the bank!
1-0 +1.00 unit

This is the result of my arbitrage play on San Antonio & Dallas series.
Total exposure 6 units, 3 units on both sides, with risk hedge to ZERO the middle is the profit.
WIN DALLAS Wager Balance(+151 x 2) + (+191 x 1) = 4.93 units
Loss SAN ANTONIO Wager Balance (+124 x 1) + (+171 x 2) = 3.00 units
Gain +1.93 units

Here's my Sunday game.
I'm skipping the details we're all students of the game learning from each match up. The games that go deep into the series are due to tight plays and good adjustments. Perceptions are the pitfall. No one's laying down with everything on the line. Cleveland has earned it's spot in game 7 they should not be getting this many points. For my comfort level I'll take the added 1 point buy.

CLE +10.5 at -123 for 2 units(L)

Played the line right, but Pistons came to life in vintage form in the 2nd half.
Very impressive recycling defense by Detroit.

0-1 -2.46 units

Before I forget to publish the pick for Western Conference.
The timing is right as the odds have improved.

DALLAS +258 for 2 units
LOS ANGELES +900 for 1 unit

Like the Spurs or Suns? You should of taken them before game 5.
How about the East? Nothing interesting except for the Cavs at +1300 and that's only because of the odds. I think Detroit will emerge, but I will give the Cavs ATS in game 7 a hard look.

Dejavu Pistons. We've been down this road before.
I look at the past two games and Detroit contributed to their loss as much as James involving his team mates. Pistons clearly underestimated the Cavs.
Detroit heading into hostile territory and many would have second thoughts laying points on the road after dropping 2 SU and shooting like high school kids. Now comes the test of will to score with focus and to dominate the inside.
Pistons are a team of balance better than Lebron and his disciples.

I'll take the opening quarter.

DET -1.5 at -105 for 2 units(L)
Big Ben and Prince missed the basket at the end of quarter to lose by the hook.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Am I having second thoughts on closing out the SAS/DAL Series with even wager on both sides? Not at all. Never cry about making more than what you've already made. But I do like the Mavs all the way to take Western Conference and take the Championship. Spurs are reaching in every game and Terry being out is not going to make this any easier, maybe lower scoring, but Spurs are going to have to scratch and claw to pull this one in Dallas.
The shooting percentage did come down in game, 2nd half, and that was pure San Antonio energy. I'll watch the 1st half for a spot on 2nd half Under.
I'll play the side 1st Half.

MAV ML 1st Half at -118 for 2 units(W)

DAL/SAS 2nd Half UNDER 97.5 at -118 for 2 units(W)*Buy 1.5 points
DAL/SAS 2nd Half Under 96 at +108 for 1 unit(W)

Sorry, didn't republish the index for the 2nd half additions and it didn't show up. Hopefully you guys had the same idea.

3-1 +2.92 units

We are back for game 6 in Los Angeles Staples Center.
Phoenix Suns the Pacific Division Champions are they worthy? Do they have enough on this short turn around?
You know I would consider the Under very seriously. Watch the totals the sharps are eyeing this.
But if your interested in taking advance position Clips will have the edge with home, depth and athletism. Elton will be a man on mission and Clips will control the boards.
Phoenix has variety of reasons to be lacking. Suns will want to play opportunistic ball, but not so physical with their starters worn out pretty good. Suns have a cushion in the back of their minds, the final game at home if necessary with time to heal, maybe the Suns bench get bit more involved giving the starters some rest. Whatever the reasons Clips will be the high energy team coming out of the gate.

LAC 1st Half -2 at -122 for 3 units(W) *0.5 points buy
You know I had my finger to trigger the Under on this game. Than I lost my window, others were posting Under the Total started to move down and I lost interest.....I was lucky.
Luck is the residual of hard work.

1-0 +3.00 units

I said this couple of days ago and I will play the Mavs at Spurs continuing display of breaking down the defensive scheme against each other.
Key is the Guards creating paths and Dallas is doing this extremely well.
I don't think Mavs will come out complacent they see this series as the true Western Championship and they know the Spurs are not going away quietly.
San Antonio can score with the best big 3 players in game 4 Manu Ginobili with 26 points, Tony Parker scored a career playoff-high 33 points in and Tim Duncan has been averaging 31 points per game in the series.
Now does the teams focus in on defense claiming their opponents scored too easily, too many? Of course, but I don't think they've solved the part of "How to defend". Too many players are stepping up. I want to see the percentages of key stats move down in game and I think that's what the Books want to see before they bring down the O/U Total to the average 185.
I think the median here is 50 point quarters and if the clamp down is coming tonight it'll come in the 2nd half. Game Total is sharp and Over is very public play.

DAL/SAS 1st Quarter Over 48.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
DAL/SAS 1st Half Over 96.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)

1st Quarter is heavy with Spur backers.
I'll take Mavs with points.

DAL 1st Quarter +1.5 at +115 for 1 unit(L)
I got to stop staring at these opening lines. Just couldn't help myself watching the 1st quarter money flow to Spurs. That didn't have any work except to fade the money flow. I should of added the unit to 1st quarter Over instead as that price improved there too.
Oh well, it's the gains that count.

2-1 +1.00 units

Tuesday, Nets are hanging by a thread and to make matters worst their flight had to be diverted to Orlando because of bad weather making their arrival into Miami much later than expected. Nets may not be out, but they are mentally fatigued. Today there will be adjustments made on defending Dwayne Wade as he has caused much of the damage. This may take some focus off Shaq, making Big Daddy a likely suspect to exceed his recent scoring output.
Keep in mind Nets lost the last game in the 4th quarter as Miami made 3 huge stops and extended their lead, but it was the Nets who started the game with energy dominating the paint and getting the fast break points. The Heat took over the lead with 3:12 minutes left in first quarter. Nets also made a 6-0 run to tie Miami at the start of 3rd quarter, but again ran out of steam. Clearly Collins need to shoot and make those short range jumpers and Carter need to look for a open man on the double teams. What I see is the game to start in basket for basket fashion like the last two games and Over to clear as it has for this series. When your mentally fatigued, in this situation, defense suffers.

5/14 1st Qt. 27-24 (Heat Over)
5/12 1st Qt. 27-27 (Nets ATS Over)
5/10 1st Qt. 41-19 (Heat Over)
5/08 1st Qt. 38-21 (Nets Over)

Taking NJN/MIA 1st Quarter Over 48 -109 for 2 units(W)

Did you guys watch the Clippers at Suns game....Oh my God! Doublt Over-time Suns in the clutch taking LA backers, many at the Covers forum, money.
I was full of opinions, but glad I didn't post any suggestions.
Loved the 2nd half Under 107 in good old fade the public with Clips scoring percentage dropping in the 2nd quarter.
Also liked the Suns -1 for the 2nd half for same reason.
Double OT kills a perfect Under.
resurgent Clips storm back from 19 back in the 3rd goes to double OT,
2nd half 66-67 Suns Push.

Hell, published play goes perfect. I'm dialed into NBA taking short break from MLB.

1-0 +2.00 units

Hope everybody is doing well.

My thoughts for Monday will be on Pistons vs Cavaliers. Definitely a bounce back on the scoring Detroit with 77 points on 39% shooting and 16 turn overs. This is Pistons worst game in the playoffs and they will return to form.

DET 1st Quarter -1.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
DET 1st Half -3 at -110 for 2 units(L)

I've made couple of prop plays at Covers forum, but you know all players are superstitious and I'm not going to jinx myself by posting plays everywhere.
The prop play is ....
Billups -1.5 assists Over LBJ -108 at 1 unit(L)
-------------------------------------------------------------
My Dallas & San Antonio series worked out nicely and I will lock in the money
with Spurs +171 for the remaining 2 units to even both sides wagered in plus money.

SPURS for the series +171 for 2 units
--------------------------------------------------------------
Late addition:
I'll hit this before game time as the Over is getting the money flow.
SAS/DAL 1st Quarter Under 48 at -100 for 2 units(W)
---------------------------------------------------------------
I watched the 2nd Half line open at Pinny and I had it pegged to open at 93~94 so when it came out at 96 U -108 I stalled. The scoring percentage has been climbing since the 1st quarter and figured the play on Over, but while I tinkered with buying points or taking the straight Over the price started to climb. I laid off, but it seems these two teams have so much understanding for defense they can break it down and score.

2-2 -0.28 units

Happy Mothers Day.
Sundays are busy sports day and I was going to take my mother to (MLB) SEA/LAA game, but that would of been too easy. She could read that one so I will make myself available and go out for dinner instead. Before I go the take today on the hardcourt is Clips rebounding to return hard. Clips with their size advantage combined with test of wills for Clips to play with an lead.
Keeping in mind Clips advantage was erased by poor FT shooting last game and 3 pointers can always rain down with the Suns I will play the early rounds.

LAC -1.5 1st Quarter at -112 for 1 unit(W)
LAC -2.5 1st Half at -109 for 2 units(W)

Elton Brand keeps lighting it up.
2-0 +3.00 units

The games are out of order because that's the way I took them.
I heard about Larry Hughes brother passing away, my condolences, but it is also swaying the wager line. Thus the swing back to Detroit.
I'm letting it ride.

I'll play the zig zag following two single sided games.

NJN -0.5 First Quarter -118 for 1 unit(L)
NJN ML -131 for 2 units(L)
PHO +3.5 -100 for 2 units(W)

Like to go UNDER at New Jersey too, but will wait on that one.

Good luck Players.

MIA/NJN 2nd Half Under 94 at +108 for 2 units(W)

PHO/LAC 1st quarter fell Under 55. This game too looks Under for second half.

Stand by for 2nd half selection.

PHO/LAC 2nd Half UNDER 106 at -109 for 3 units(W)
PHO +3 2nd Half -106 for 1 unit(W)

4-2 +3.36 units
----------------------------------------------------------------
The money on the table. Spurs vs Mavs series: 3 units on Dallas
Wager Balance(151 x 2) + (191 x 1)Average unit wager +164.3

Now that Spurs are +124 for the series I could lock this in, but where's the fun in that. Dallas pulls the first game at home and this could get jucier, but it could go the other way with well rested spurs. I'll take a unit here.

SAS Series Win +124 for 1 unit

Saturday selection Detroit at Cleveland.
If the Cavs are to win one this would be the spot.
Coming off a ATS win with 4th quarter scoring frenzy by LBJ.

Take the Cavs as the home dog.

CLE +4 at -112 for 3 units(W)
CLE ML +165 for 1 unit(W)

Saturday morning addition:
Take the 1st Quarter Under the number as Detroit has run away from the gate in this series and Cavs will not let that happen here at Quicken Loans. The 1st is the key quarter to set the tone Cavs must clamp down from the get go.

DET/CLE 1st Quarter UNDER 47 at -111 for 2 units(W)
CLE +5.5 at -123 for 2 units(W) *buy 1 point

Good game!
I also played Spurs with points for game and 2nd half. 2nd Half Under 98 was my only loss and my basket gains for today is 12.00 units plus.
Spurs and Mavs series wager is looking very nice.

4-0 +8.65 units

Back on the hardcourt. Had lots of thoughts last night as I faded the public only to lose silly. If I wanted to do that again I could go under with Clippers at Suns and the rising total, but I'm not playing against the public.

Heat and Clips are in line to take tonight's games.
Heat on tripple revenge angle is above 70% in ATS win.
Nets short handed and Shaq maybe older, but still give you 2~3 outstanding game in any series.
Last game Nets just ran away out of the gate, this game Nets will be contained.

MIA -7 at -111 for 2 units(W)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Clips have their strongest game in the 2nd quarter. They are undefeated in 2nd quarter.
Suns playoff 2nd quarter record : 2(W) - 6(L)

LAC +1 2nd Quarter -105 for 2 units(L)
LAC 2nd Quarter ML +120 for 1 unit(L)
LAC +4.5 at -115 for 2 units(W)

2nd Half:
LAC +7 at -115 for 2 units(W)
LAC/PHO UNDER 109 at -110 for 1 unit(W) *1.5 points buy

4-2 +3.90 units

Watch the line for Dallas at San Antonio Total now at 181.5 at Over -112 from Pinny. I see few books have already moved to 182. The opening line was 179.5 at Pinny and 180 at BetCris, the two books with pretty sharp opening line.
If your thinking just 90'ish scoring to take the Over money beware.
The smooth running Mavs hit a brick wall with Spurs that was supposed to be worn out. Though Mavs lead most of the way, covering ATS across the board, when push came to shove the game turned defensive and Spurs pulled out the win.
The playoff games maybe about zig zag theory, but I don't see these two teams tinkering too much with offense.

The Under trend is very strong.
Under is 7-1-0 in Mavericks last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1-0 in Mavericks last 5 playoff road games.
Under is 6-2-0 in Mavericks last 8 vs. NBA Southwest.
Under is 8-3-0 in Mavericks last 11 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 5-2-0 in Mavericks last 7 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 5-2-0 in Mavericks last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 5-2-0 in Mavericks last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 14-6-0 in Mavericks last 20 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-0-0 in Spurs last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 5-0-0 in Spurs last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-0-0 in Spurs last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 6-1-0 in Spurs last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.
Under is 5-1-0 in Spurs last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 4-1-0 in Spurs last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1-0 in Spurs last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1-0 in Spurs last 5 overall.
Under is 4-1-0 in Spurs last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 4-1-0 in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.
Under is 5-2-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Since the line is moving towards my favor I will wait.

Almost 10:00 PST and I might have missed a good spot about 30 minutes ago.
Bought 1 point

DAL/SAS UNDER 183 at -123 for 1 unit(L)

Spurs have no energy. I guess the Kings series is now catching up with them.
But the series money is looking interesting.
1-0 -1.23 units
--------------------------------------------------------------
Keep track of the money on the table. What I'm looking for is the money in the middle. Added another unit.

DAL Series +191 for 1 unit
Wager Balance(151 x 2) + (191 x 1)
Average unit wager +164.3

Wish I played this at the open the price has been rising and if you like it too better hit it soon. LAC/PHO with Clips itching will come with high hopes, but their defense will elude them early and Suns will be revving.
The Suns cutters may get contested in the paint, but when Suns are playing the way they are playing the outside shots will fall. This does not mean Clips scoring will be hurt Clips can pound the inside, Cory is explosive, Vlad is playing better in L.A. hitting the long distance, Sam running the show and back court can hit the short jumpers. Defense for Clips will come around after the opening jitters.
My best take here is the opening quarter to sail over the number and coast into 1st half Over.

LAC/PHO 1st Quarter Over 53.5 at -115 for 2 units(W)
LAC/PHO 1st Half Over 106.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)
Feeling lucky with these two as I scaled it the wrong way. The numbers climbed to take the Over wire to wire including second half Over.
2-0 +3.00 units

Two games on Sunday and I will make two selections.
NBA on ABC, early game is the Texas brawl where I kinda like the Under, but I'm going with Dallas and taking the points. I'm going to watch the line see if San Antonio money comes in. Looking at both halves.

Bought the point for the half.
MAV +3.5 1st Half -118 for 1 unit(W)
Bought half point for the game.
MAV +5 -118 for 2 units(W)

----------------------------------------------------------------
Second game is Under for the first half. Like the fact Pistons poured 122 points in their last game and are well rested. Like the fact Cavs played OT in their last two games. Like the fact Pistons went on a big 1st half run in their last meeting. Watching this one too and I will buy 1.5 points on 1st half under.

If the price improves I'll go another unit.
CLE/DET 1st Half UNDER 94.5 -131 for 1 unit (L)

2-1 +1.69 units

---------------------------------------------------------------

Thinking Mavs & Spurs series has money in the middle.

MAVS for series against the Spurs +151 for 2 units

.

Making this short.
This game will start slow maybe gain momentum, but last game was slowing before the OT.
I think the money is the First Half which everyone is guessing the other way.
I can hear the public thinking "this game is going to start hot!" it's not, it'll be a clock eater and Koby will be patient.
Watch the line it's already moved higher from 103.5 I'll pick my spot.

If your asking which game? There's only one.

Yeah baby, I'm in.

LAL/PHO 1st Quarter Under 52 +118 for 2 units(W)
LAL/PHO 1st Half Under 105.5 -130 for 3 units(W)

Very disappointing game. Good thing I didn't take side I thought Lakers would play it tight.
2-0 +5.36 units

This is what stands out today.

Under is 3-0-0 in Spurs last 3 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1-0 in Spurs last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 15-6-1 in Spurs last 22 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-0-0 in Kings last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 4-1-0 in Kings last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
Under is 7-2-0 in Kings last 9 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 7-3-0 in Kings last 10 home games.
Under is 7-3-0 in Kings last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 11-5-0 in Kings last 16 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 5-1-0 in the last 6 meetings in Sacramento.

Yes there are countering Over trends, but elimination threat for Kings after double digit loss they will defend the paint, no easy baskets and put backs, Kings will probably not let Ginobilli dive to the basket on his drives as easily as he did Tuesday, instead giving him the outside shot.
Spurs will match up defensively and will not give either bringing this game to grinding tempo. I'm still watching the lines, but will hit this at opportune time.

SAS/SAC UNDER 190.5 at -131 for 2 units(W)
Money ball!
1-0 +2.00 units

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls, game 6 at United Center.
Heat for the past 2 seasons have clinched the advance on the road.
From the first game Heat looked complacent after the 1st Half allowing the big lead to dwindle. Bull game 3 win was due to happen, game 4 loss got their attention and game 5 ...Heat was in trouble, but played the 4th with their dynamic dual looking like superstars. Shaq and Wade rolling they will win tonight. No matter with United Center, Wades hip, fouls or Chandler returning, Miami to close the series and move on.

MIAMI Money Line -117 for 4 units(W)
115 with late Bulls money coming in.

That felt good. Nice win to ATS backers too! That line went to -1.5 Miami.
1-0 +4.00 units

Cash me this one need to make some extra to catch the LA series. Yes the Suns did it their way in Phoenix, but Lakers Clippers will make fine totals for really nice upcoming plays.

Here's the play. Wiz and Cavs with series all tied up. Last game was Wiz come from behind, but if you look at the stats on that game Cavs had them in shooting percentage, paint, and didn't let anything get away except for fouls, points off turnovers and offensive board for 2nd chance points. Was that home court bias refs obvious? If I was a betting man I would bet Wiz do not get those calls in Quicken Loans Arena.....I am and I will....
1st Half numbers to stay below looks good with very strong Under trend.

WAS/CLE 1st Half UNDER 97 at -108 for 3 units(L)
This so called "loose" game killed the Under trend.
-------------------------------------------------

Didn't have enough time to give the explaination, but looking at similar points, scoring & differential, Pistons showed big edge.
DETROIT 2nd Half -3 at -104 for 2 units(W)

1-1 -1.24 units

Tuesday is early line day, just kidding, I just like NJN at home, although the Continental Airlines Arena has been kind to Pacers ATS backers, Peja will not go and bigger piece of the puzzle Jermaine O'Neal was not able to practice today because of dehydration and flu like symptoms. He was at Conseco Field House, started practice but didn't last very long and made the trip to New Jersey and will wait and see about his availability coming up or at least his availability and effectiveness coming up Tuesday night. Pacers Nets in good zig zag pattern with Pacers in line to win this game, but if your not aware of Jermaine's condition and looking for a big game from him you might be in for a surprise. Taking the dip from the Opening line NJN -7 to -6.5

NJN -6.5 -110 for 2 units(L)
The hook got me.
Kidd missed his 2nd FT at the end that was the difference.
Could of bought the point, but that's an after thought.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bulls/Heat is playing a good spot for scoring surge. The game goes to Miami with Bulls Chandler iffy will hurt defense. Heat coming off sub 90 point scoring to push the Over is very strong trend.

This one is going Under. 121 points in 2nd half is unlikely.

MIA/CHI OVER 198.5 -108 for 2 units(L)
Wade missing big chunk of the game did this play. Even the 2nd half 97.5 was Under to take this game Under across the board.

Had some help from fellow cappers to tail SAS -8 and PHO 2nd Half -2.
Recouped, but damage is already done here.
0-2 -4.36 units
Not to be discouraged Post Season NBA feels right.

What do I like for Monday at the Association?
How often does the opponents score 124 points against Detroit in regulation?
It's easy to predict the scoring will drop from where it last landed, but how far down? The opening total at most book 191, Pinny shows opening of 180 but I never saw that number, number is rising I see 5Dimes at 192.5 already.
I calculate the number at 188, but the real prize will be the First Half number landing around 97 and First Quarter at 49 which should be good for Under.
Hit this late and watch the money flow for best value.
If the 1st Half Total is Under by 3 or less and 2nd Half shows value to the Under make it an option play.

Keep your eyes on the prize. I missed the First Half number by 0.5 points, but that's right there we can take 96.5 and take it up to 98. Sit tight for late afternoon Over money to come in on 1st quarter and half.
Ideal price for First Half Under 98 is -123 or better it's already hit that point before climbing. Watch for list price to go -105 at Pinny and be ready to hit.

There's an up tick on Bucks with afternoon sharp money hedging the series.
You got to take Pistons with improved line.

DET -6.5 -107 for 2 units(W)

DET/MIL UNDER 49 1st Quarter -109 2 units(W)
DET/MIL UNDER 98 1st Half -123 2 units(W)
Had posting problems earlier.
DET/MIL UNDER 97 2nd Half -123 2 units(L)
OK I got cocky in the end.
3-1 +3.54 units