Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons.
This is a elimination game for Pistons at home.
Lets see if the past are any indication for the future.

Scores by Quarters:
Game 4 at Miami American Airlines Arena Monday 5/29:
DET: 17 21 22 18 = 78
MIA: 23 21 18 27 = 89
The big numbers for this game is Dwayne Wade 31 points and big portion of this number is free throws, 15 for 19 attempts. This free throw number inflates to 28 for 47 attempts by Miami so the beating could of been much worse for Detroit. Another differential is fast break points Detroit 2 Miami 11.
The dynamic dual of Wade and Shaq did most of the damage only Haslem is the third player with double digit points. Role players concentrated on defense holding Detroit to 39% shooting. No Detroit starting four scored over 15+ points.

Game 3 at Miami American Airlines Arena Saturday 5/27:
DET: 24 14 24 21 = 83
MIA: 26 23 25 24 = 98
Wire to wire Miami at home. Dwayne Wade 35 points, Shaq 27 points, role players Walker 11, Haslem 10. Domination in the paint Pistons 16 to Heat 50, board Pistons 27 to Heat 40. Detroit guards scored 51 combined points, but low post was all Miami and can't win games that way. Very noticeable on this game was Prince almost no-show.

Game 2 at Palace of Auburn Hills. Thursday, May 25 2006.
MIA: 12 25 19 32 = 88
DET: 25 23 22 22 = 92
Box score tells the story. Detroit came out red hot which was more about shutting down the opponent scoring their possession then pacing the rest of the game almost getting caught at the end, losing ATS. Wade and Shaq got their combined 53 points, Walker got 11 points, but forced a lot of bad shots taking 3 for 12 attempts and 1 for 7 from 3 point land. Role players took tough shots and didn't make many. Detroit starting four plus Big Ben did not give up the paint or rebounds, played balanced ball on both ends and got to the free throw line better than Heat.

Game 1 at Palace of Auburn Hills. Tuesday, May 23 2006.
MIA: 33 15 18 25 = 91
DET: 25 19 17 25 = 86
Interesting game on the part of rested Miami where role players exceeded the dynamic dual, with foul troubles, in performance and time on the floor.
Heat came out hot and paced the rest of the way saving Wade and Shaq the wear and tear. Heat shot the ball exceptionally well and controlled the low post.

Everybody likes Heat +6 ATS, Pinny opened at +7 moved to +6.5 and now +6, as Miami have taken all ATS and all Unders with Detroit in Conference finals. ATS has been steady with Detroit getting numbers due to elimination which is not a surprise, but Totals have been on the decline with each match up falling under 181.5 and this number is more about Detroit's inability to score consistently with the starting four, Billups, Rip, Rasheed and Prince, in higher percentage. The tempo is certainly what Pistons are use to and if' they're not giving up the paint or the board, which I don't expect for the elimination game, Detroit needs to feed Prince and Rasheed to execute and attack the basket not just Chauncy and Rip. I have a feeling Flip and Rasheed has worked out their differences for the good of the team. The zone defense Pistons used in the 3rd quarter of last game got them back in it for awhile, Flip says he'll be using it more, but Heat adjusted Wade took over and Miami scored 27 points in the 4th quarter.

So is the public correct in playing the momentum of Heat and the dynamic dual or Detroit due to make their stand at home possibly covering ATS? I like to see how this plays out too, but I'd say -6 to -7 is going to be very close maybe SU Pistons win no cover. Nothing I'd put my money on, but if Miami's going to win it it'll be in Miami Game 6.

My take is this. 2 units across.
Outcome prediction: 89-97 Detroit.

MIA/DET First Quarter 45.5 at -101 for 2 units(L)
(Priced at -101 waiting on even or better - never got better)
MIA/DET Fourth Quarter 45.5 at +105 for 2 units(L)

MIA/DET 1st Half Over 89 at -109 for 2 units(W)
(Priced at -125 with 1.5 points buy waiting on -120 or better)

MIA/DET Over 179.5 at -121 for 2 units(L)

Don't like the progress of this game. I'm reversing the Total for 2nd Half and taking Detroit to cover 2nd Half.

MIA/DET 2nd Half Under 90.5 +105 for 3 units(W)

DET 2nd Half -2.5 +100 for 3 units(W)

3-3 +1.71 units