Thursday, March 28, 2013

NBA Thursday

37-28  8,100

Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns
Another bad teams matching up. Sacramento Kings 7-30 on the road, only Charlotte has a worse road record in NBA, giving up -3.5 points to the free falling Phoenix.  The Kings are bad and according to today's match up the Suns are worse. Overall the Kings are better, but Suns at home are better than Kings on the road, right? It sure seems like a simple solution except Kings as a short favorite occurred 17 times this season and they have won 11 of them. Still the Kings can lose against the worst, or at least the bad, than you should also consider the Suns 8-20 against sub .500 teams and that number is magnified in second half 3-10. Sacramento playing high octane offense and Phoenix are 8-19, 5-11 in second half, against offensive teams.
Fading the Suns.

SACRAMENTO KINGS -3.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

NBA Wednesday

37-27  9,200

Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76er's
Milwaukee is 3rd in central at 34-35 and 16-18 away. Comparing to their ATS record 31-38, 19-15 away indicating their strength is on the road receiving points.  Philadelphia 27-43, but playing above .500 at 20-17, coming off a grueling road trip and now rested. Their last home stand was successful 3 out of 4 including a cover against Miami.  This will be the third meeting Milwaukee leading the series 2-1 SU and ATS.  Although the Bucks are sliding on 7-18 ATS on second half and on 3 game losing streak 76er's are 8-17 SU second half slide 2-8 as short home favorites. The Bucks 4-1 as short dog and 9-5 against Atlantic division.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS +1 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

NBA Tuesday

36-26  9,210

Took a tough loss last time out, but anytime your in a tight game I rather get the last shot and I got 2 tries with Spurs 95-96 loss. Moving on.

Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
I like both of these teams. The Clippers have the 4th best winning percentage in NBA and the 4th best road record in NBA. Dallas is not in the same class as L.A., had too many losses early without Dirk, but they have bounced back and more importantly are 4th in Money. This type of match up, contender vs ATS winner, usually gives the advantage to the money team getting the points. Not so today with the contender getting a point before moving to pick'em. It's building up to be a tight one and I like this game to go Over with offense in motion. Both teams are top ranked Over team in a offensive oriented spot. Expect early point surge to carry over into second half.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS at DALLAS MAVERICKS
First Half OVER 102.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)
But this game just went into OT
Game Total OVER 202 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
Today I'm lucky! 102-109 Dallas in OT

Sunday, March 24, 2013

NBA Sunday

Very busy sports weekend. Sticking to the hard wood in Texas.

36-25-1  10,280

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
Basketball in Texas is always good. Looking at Spurs 53-16, first in Southwest, visiting Houston to take on the 38-31 Rockets, 3rd in Southwest. Rockets tough at home 24-10 and don't get points often, but they have covered as a home dog of  3 or less, the last one against Oklahoma, 4-1 in last 4 home games. However the Rockets are just above average on revenge games and division opponents are giving them trouble. The Spurs are tough on winning teams and so far 6-1 in second half. 21-8 against poor defensive teams, 10-3 in second half.  Also 5-1 in second half against good offensive teams.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -1 at -107 for 1 unit(L)
Had the last look, but could not convert.

Friday, March 22, 2013

NBA Friday

36-24-1  11,350

Boston at Dallas
Boston third in Atlantic in the mix and will be motivated. They lost 2 in a row ,but by one point to New Orleans in last game and 2 points to Miami before that. Today the Celtics are in Dallas taking on the Mavericks. Dallas was embarrassed in the last game at home 96-113 loss to Brooklyn as -3.5 point favorite. Second most points allowed in last 20 games. I like this game go go Under the Total. Dallas in a spot to bring defensive pressure. Boston offense drops on the road, but defense keeps them in.

Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks
Game Total Under 195.5 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

NBA Wednesday

35-24-1  10,350 

Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Bobcats
5th in Atlantic meets 5th in Southwest, that's where the similarity end.  The Raptors are 26-41 with .500 ATS  and is a team moving up while the Cats at 15-52, 22-41 ATS, is the worst team in NBA. But this is no news and Toronto on the road has been weak except for their ATS record, reflective of their underdog status. That's not the case here this is 9-24 SU road team giving -6.5 points to  11-22 ATS home record team.  But Toronto just blew them out, you say.  At -12.5 or -13 that was a narrow home cover. This one might tighten up in Charlotte, but than again Cats coming off a SU win scoring 119 points might regress. Anybody's game to lose tonight, but I do feel the offense will crank it up a notch. The Bobcats did score 119 points in their last effort and it's unlikely to be repeated today, but let's say the Cats play 20 points below that's still 99 points and Toronto played 3 games in a row scoring below 99 points, but last 4 game road trip scored above 110 points in 3 out of 4 allowed over 118 points in 3 out of 4 very porous on the road. The Total has been on a swing and it's moved up and down within a point, point and a half of 195. Toronto overall O/U 33-34, but 20-13 on the road. Bobcats also a Under team, but slight Over at home 17-15, 8-4 when Total is in low to mid 190's and 17-9 against losing teams.  This game goes OVER.

TORONTO RAPTORS at CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Game Total OVER 194.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

Monday, March 18, 2013

NBA Monday

34-23-1  10,360

Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies lost their last two road games, but their road trip was impressive. Similar to their run last year about this time of the season (7-3 SU in last 10 games) and their 4 ATS losses have been on very slim margin. What's made this Grizzlies so tough? All you need to do is to look at their opposition's score, in their last 10 games 98 points to Miami was the most than 97 to Portland, but after that no more than 92 points and 6 games held their opponents in the 80's, that is outstanding defense. The visiting Minnesota is on a bit of a surge themselves. Minnesota took out San Antonio SU as a 9 point home dog on 3/12 than missed an ATS cover at Indiana by 1 point and went on to cover at Houston and win SU against New Orleans at home. The Wolves will be a dangerous dog with this big margin maybe too big even for this tough defense minded Memphis squad.  Minnesota defense is lacking on the road giving up plenty of triple digit scoring, but Memphis did go through an very tough road trip against 3 very good home teams with 4 games in 5 days schedule double back to back. Minnesota on second leg of home road back to back. Home team is O/U 3-14 after scoring less than 85 points, O/U 12-21 in all home games. Visitors O/U 11-24 against winning teams and this match up has produced 80% Under.

Minnesota Timberwolves +14.5 points at -110 for 1unit(L)

MINNESOTA TIMEBERWOLVES at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Game Total UNDER 183 at -109 for 1 unit(W)
77-92 Memphis Grizzlies

Sunday, March 17, 2013

NBA Sunday

34-22-1  11,430

Been busy with March madness, but no excuses the Association is in the home stretch and we're going to keep our eyes on the prize.

Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets
These two teams come in with very similar record and exact same record ATS. Above .500 SU and under .500 ATS so you would have to consider the chances of Atlanta as a underdog. It's also a revenge situation just loosing this meeting in Atlanta. However is you notice the Hawks as a dog is 9-17 SU whereas the Nets are 27-8 SU as a favorite and considering this spread being a two possession ATS the underdog advantage does not weigh in. Nets well rested and meeting the Hawks that's already played 3 games since their last meet. Backing the Nets here.

BROOKLYN NETS -4 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

NBA Tuesday

33-22-1  10,430

Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers
Got a reverse line movement on this game with -1 point spread opening with Cleveland is now -1 Wizards. Washington had a nice run 2/02 to 2/25 for span of 10 games going 7-3 SU & 8-2 ATS. 6 games since they are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS. Cleveland also had a run of 6 straight ATS wins 2/13 to 2/27 and now tapered a bit  going  2-3 ATS in last 5 games. Maybe Washington's win with the largest ATS -10.5 cover and offense breaking over 100 points will carry over to this game. But that was the Bobcats and the Wizards have struggled to score in other recent games. Good thing their defense is not allowing much points. Rather than to tangle with the short line that's reversed the Total looks poised to go UNDER. Washington's 104 point scoring in last game against the Bobcats likely to come down on the road. Cleveland has allowed 5 straight games of triple digit points, longest 100+ points allowed, but that number too is likely decline. Washington on the road O/U 6-23, 2nd half of season 4-13, after 10+ points win 1-6, against Central 1-11, against sub .500 teams 7-20, in 2nd half 1-8. Cleveland doesn't trend Under as well as Washington, but Kyle Irving out of the line up to make it little harder on Cavalier's offense. The points will come at a premium today. Go with the UNDER.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Game Total UNDER 191 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Tuesday, March 05, 2013

NBA Tuesday

32-22-1  9,430

Bagged another winner last night. Moving on to the East where Atlantic #3 will m will meet #4.

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76er's
The Celtics 31-27 stalking Brooklyn and front runner N.Y., but they are playing road trip heavy schedule and away games have given them trouble, 10-18 SU, Philadelphia has not been any different. The 76er's are a losing team, but ATS wise they are 2 teams above Boston, coming off back to back ATS win. This game will have the Sixers playing the role of a spoiler and the spread has moved from pick to +2.5 home dog. There are positives to Sixers in this match up, but motivated Celtics might be a bit much for the wearily Philadelphia team. They got a one day break but, playing 2 sets of back to back this being the first leg of second set and 3rd game in 4 days with their winning margin narrowing, 9 point ATS win against Golden State down to 3 point ATS win at Washington, which usually signals a ATS loss. Philadelphia is not good at winning ATS following a SU loss ATS cover 5-2. The Celtics are 9-4 so far in second half, 4-2 well rested and they are winning games in low scoring fashion. Fading the Sixers tonight.

BOSTON CELTICS -2.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Monday, March 04, 2013

NBA Monday

31-22-1  8,430

Coming off a nice Sunday with two for one hitting sides and total. Looking to keep on keeping on!
Following Atlanta Hawks to Denver for their second leg of back to back road game.

Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets
Atlanta Hawks lose a close call in Los Angeles, but cover ATS and that's a winner. The Hawks are pretty good on back to back games, 9-5 SU & ATS, and play well against Northwest opponents, 5-2 ATS. This 33-25 Hawks will be getting hefty +9 points tonight, better than last night, and the spread was +10 points earlier. Last time Atlanta got +9 points was all the way back in 11/04 at Oklahoma City, you know what happened in that game, Hawks won SU 104-95. So you got to ask yourself, can the Nuggets be good enough to win in double digit fashion? Denver Nuggets own the best home record and they are killing it ATS at home and though the Hawks are good they are on their 6th road game and last night's game at L.A. was draining. The Hawks successful road trip also reflective of their schedule against weak opponents which gradually escalated to stronger opponents and they will see the toughest court in all of NBA

DENVER NUGGETS -9 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

Sunday, March 03, 2013

NBA Sunday

30-22-1  7,430

Atlanta Hawks at L.A. Lakers
Last game on slate tonight and Lakers are surging toward a post season spot, but Atlanta playing good ball coming off a poor showing in Phoenix poised to bring their A game tonight. Atlanta has bounced back after a single loss all three times in last 10 games. Lakers are coming off a significant win, 22 point blow out, against Minnesota. However that blow out comes against a rag tag injury riddled Timberwolves not the Hawks. Atlanta #2 in Southeast taking 3 out of last 4 on the road straight up . The Lakers have trouble against the Southeast, 1-6, and they have trouble scoring, O/U 6-16. L.A. on a spot for point decline, 8-14 after scoring over +105.

Atlanta Hawks +6 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

ATLANTA HAWKS at LOS ANGELES lAKERS
Game Total UNDER 206.5 at -103 for 1 unit(W)
Taking care of business!

Saturday, March 02, 2013

NBA Saturday

30-12-1   8,510

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks
The Raptors have dropped three straight, twice as a favorite and once as a small dog lost all three in double digit ATS. That 5 game win streak from 2/08 to 2/19 and all the way to 2/22 Toronto was 6-1, but that's all fading fast. Milwaukee Bucks have always given Toronto trouble beating the Raptors in last 10 meeting. Toronto only covered twice ATS in their last 10 match ups and that was getting 9.5 and 10 points. Milwaukee just beat Houston and Dallas on the road with double digit ATS win margin, but they have struggled to that point and winning three has not been accomplished since 1/17 to 1/22. It's a tough call ATS, but today's Total looks a bit high. Toronto games on the road does not cover +200 points. The last game set at 192.5 in Toronto sailed OVER, but Milwaukee on a spot to decline. Toronto may score more than 81 points, but it's going to fall short. Got low scoring Refs on the floor let's make them baskets hard to come.

TORONTO RAPTORS at MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Game Total UNDER 200.5 at -108 for 1 unit(L)

Friday, March 01, 2013

NBA Friday

30-20-1  9,560

Oklahoma Thunder at Denver Nuggets
This is a good game and the last game on slate tonight. Denver at home after another offensive showing in Portland. Amazing momentum considering that game in Portland was in a situational Under, but blasted through extremely high road total of 210. Yes, Oklahoma flexed their defense in holding last 2 opponents in 70's while rolling past 100 points, but Denver at Pepsi center with momentum will not yield. This total opened at 221 before declining to the current 217. Two of the fastest offense in NBA square off you know I'm going against the decline.

OKLAHOMA THUNDER at DENVER NUGGETS
Game Total OVER 217 at -105 for 1 unit(L)
Almost went to OT which likely would of gone OVER. Nuggets are rolling at home.