NBA Wednesday

Cleveland and New York will meet again, second game in less than a week. Knicks scored only 68 points in the first meet with 40.9 % shooting 50% from the FT line and dismal 2 for 14 from beyond the arc. Getting beat in every aspect of the game Knicks have played low scoring games to the tune of 7 unders out of last 10. Cleveland is trying to stay focused having clinched their spot and though they are 50% on O/U road games when they are matched with below .500 teams the Over is 21-16. NY with the embarrassing loss still fresh on their mind should have a much better scoring tonight. Number is dropping on the total and I will take the Over.

CLE/NYK OVER 182.5 at -100 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Monday

I am playing Denver at Detroit. Looks like a good spot for point drop and that'll be my play.

DEN/DET UNDER 198 at -110 for 2 units(L)

Lost this one in OT!

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Another Under I like with Portland at Chicago.

POR/CHI UNDER 185 at -105 for 2 units(L)
Fourth quarter surge!

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Late night addition.

SAS/GSW OVER 201.5 at -104 for 2 units(W)

1-2 -2.30 units

NBA Saturday

Saturday night's alright for B-Ball. Memphis at Utah boys and girls. Yeah, Grizzlies are running up the score like nobody's business, but they are on the road now. Jazz gave up triple digit points to last 2 opponents and Memphis scoring has peaked against the Lakers. Take the Under against the climbing number.

MEM/UTA UNDER 211.5 -110 for 3 units(L)

0-1 -3.00 units

NBA Wednesday

Today's game I'll take my cue from the good cappers. Not going to go over all the reasoning behind the pick, but T-Wolves makes sense tonight.

MIN +6.5 at -104 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Tuesday

Got to sleep in late. I'm getting a bit one dimensional on my Total and that's something I need to work on, but the picks are hitting and books have not made adjustments against my game. That's because my plays don't follow the majority and I would think books want to beat the majority. So continuing to play against the public perception the game tonight is Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets. Doesn't this game have the first glance look of Under?
Come on, Pacers and Rockets? They've played like 9-1 Under in head to head match up and they are getting historical high number with 192.5, I'm starting to see 191.5, normally this match up gets numbers in 180's. OK, all this is got me looking at the Over. Houston has that front court back court balance that I like on Over's and look at Indy they got O'neil back on 3/14 and he'll be on his 3rd game. Pacers broke the triple digit mark against Atlanta on 3/17 another encouraging sign. I understand there is defensive nature to this game, but going against the grain taking the Over.

Wait a bit more and take the 191.5 or 191. I've got to go so I'm taking the higher number. I might add to it, but may not have chance to post it.

IND/HOU OVER 192.5 at +103 for 2 units(L)

I was not even close. I guess the nature of the game speaks volume.

0-1 -2.00 units

NBA Monday

Not much action on NBA tonight. I will give it a shot with Sacramento Kings at Atlanta Hawks.Both teams have defensive issues I'm sure has been addressed for this match up. I basically look for balance in the back court and front court for the Over to come to play and when this balance lacks from a team I lean Under. When both teams lack balance and comes into a game with over adjustments by the book I'll take the Under. Hawks have been a recent Over team with 4 of 5 Overs set in mid to high 180's. All of last 5 games have been Over with the highest total set at 195.5 Sacramento have also played Over, 4 out of last 5, mostly on points allowed and the public perception is this game to go Over. Number has been climbing and I will take advantage of the higher number.

SAC/ATL UNDER 201 at +100 for 2 units(W)

Well the published time for this pick was little late. I had some problem getting it posted 15 minutes before game time with the total rising. I'll try to get the next pick out earlier.

1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Sunday

I hope my buddy Batis is doing well.
It's Sunday and getting close to game time as look forward to 2 games today.

Houston at Philly was bit tough to swallow, but low number was too tempting. Sure I had my share of disappointments and I'm not completely sold on 76'ers helping this Over. I think they are in a spot to increase their scoring and even if Rockets are in a spot to come down in scoring the number has a good chance for a Over.

HOU/PHL OVER 185.5 at -114 for 2 units(W)

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LA Clippers at NJ Nets are definitely in a spot to drop their scoring. I see it on both sides and I understand Clips getting +5 when they are showing life is a pretty good ATS bet, but Clips hitting last 2 games in triple digits and Nets scoring in the 80's and holding Miami in low 90's is a good sign for a grind'em out match tonight. Besides Nets at home with defend their court and I'm sure that's how it'll play out.

LAC/NJN UNDER 189.5 at -101 for 2 units(L)

1-1 -0.02 units

NBA Saturday

The Over did not have a chance at all last night. I'll take a chance on the rising number tonight with Kings at Magic. Sacramento is on a very tight schedule and they are putting up lots of points and not helping their cause. Orlando has been scoring points, much more than usual, but I still like the Under at home. It just makes sense to me that both of these teams should have defensive mind set tonight.

SAC/ORL UNDER 202 at -104 for 3 units(W)

That was money ball.
1-0 +3.00 units

NBA Friday

Just when my game is on a groove I'm getting backed up with work demands. Killed my Thursday plays which would of hit with Lakers/Nuggets Under 212 and now it's getting late into Friday afternoon. Hope I put in enough thought into this game.
Detroit at Phoenix with Suns coming off a huge victory in Dallas I like the high scoring to continue. Pistons are shooting over 50% though they are coming off a low scoring game in Portland they are attempting low number of shots and that should turn around today.
I'm looking for the final total to land between 203~206.

DET/PHO OVER 201.5 at +101 for 2 units(L)


0-1 -2.00 units

NBA Wednesday

Must be watching too much baseball it always happens this time of the year. Can't be making excuses so I'll crunch the numbers again and this is what I have.
Utah at Orlando. Jazz playing 2nd of back to back in the great state of Florida. Got moosed on the 1st game as Shaq was on the MONEY, can't believe how well he's playing, and now will take on the lowly, but dangerous Magic team at home.
Utah just played a low scoring game in Miami and normally I would consider the points to swing up, but also a mirror situation with back to back where the tendencies of tempo will reflect the previous night and Magic has given up triple digit scoring to last 3 opponents, 4 out of last 5 (three of these on the road) that is an issue they will adjust at home especially to a team above .500 Magic is not built to score into 100's and they will need to step up defensively, protect the home court that's how they have the top Under (12-20) at home.

UTA/ORL UNDER 195 at -108 for 3 units(W)
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This is a spot for rise in points and I will take a shot at fairly low total.

LAC/HOU Over 179.5 at -107 for 2 units(W)
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New York at Toronto. I'm taking a cue from the Line makers and respected cappers are also on this Under

NYK/TOR UNDER 199 at -101 for 2 units(W)
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I've been chasing the elusive Over with Phoenix and this game is not different. Mavs have the defense, but they are playing up tempo game and best defense for Suns are the offense.
This should be a great game.

PHO/DAL OVER 207.5 at +102 for 2 units(W)
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Perfecto!
4-0 +9.04 units

NBA Tuesday

Back to the drawing board. Took a bad Over with Rockets and Suns. Hopefully that's not the case today.

Boston at Chicago. This game I only see the game to go Under. Match up down low is very tough and Boston shooters don't worry me too much. The number eased down from first match up in Boston, but I see Bulls in a spot to come down in points. So under it is.

BOS/CHI UNDER 190 at -105 for 2 units(W)

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2nd game is Sacramento at Cleveland. Scoring has improved on both sides and the total number will reflect the rise, but nature of the game does not change easily and it's important to notice
sudden hikes to settle.

SAC/CLE UNDER 196 at +100 for 2 units(L)

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I failed to publish this game before the 0.5 point move. The game is Utah at Miami which I will back the team with the depth and strong road record in Jazz.

UTA -1.5 for -108 for 2 units(L)

I guess I'm not ready to multi task yet.
1-2 -2.16 units

NBA Monday

I'm still in Florida. Looking forward to Spring exhibition at Ft. Myers, New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox. Pavano and Wakefield, but that's another blog.

OK, back to NBA. The new old look Houston Rockets playing at the valley of the Suns. I have to say Suns are not playing full game. They take the lead and it's like the game is over for them. What the hell are they thinking? Bobcats just about slapped their face. Matrix coming off below average game and Diaw should get back to speed.
Houston is surging with their big man back in the low post and I say new old because the core line up is back, but this team is transitioning and scoring. These guys are not playing in the 80's and 90's any more they will rock the rim to the tune of 100 plus.
Look for both teams to bring their "A" game tonight.

HOU/PHO OVER 205.5 at -103 for 2 units(L)

No dice, the line was moving the wrong way. Should of noticed not to follow the sheep, sheep get slaughtered.

0-1 -2.06 units
*In case your wondering where I'm getting the lines. I still have my Vegas source and it's the original city of sin, but I opened a matchbook account. Wired some funds and I'm back on the net. Clearly they have great prices the only thing is the money limit being set by the guy betting the other side is not enough and I can't get early action. Can't have it all I guess, but I keep looking for that utopia.

Sunday NBA Part II

This is my additional play for late afternoon. Orlando at Houston total has risen since the opening and the number is following the strong offensive showing by Houston. But Orlando's strength is in the low post not afraid contesting the middle and Magic after allowing triple digit scoring should regroup and return to playing their style. Houston is able to adapt defensively and I like the Under in this spot.

ORL/HOU UNDER 187.5 at -108 for 1 unit(L)

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Time to take a shot at ATS.
Why does all the cappers like the depleted Lakers tonight? Only way I see this game is a Dallas blow out. I mean this has to be the ultimate revenge spot. Mavs are at the top of their game and catching Lakers in worst possible position with all these players hurting and out.
No way, no how Mavs lose this game. I'm going big here.

DAL -6 at -110 for 5 units(W)

Lakers biggest margin loss so far this season. So why was everyone on the Lakers?
1-1 +3.92 units

NBA Sunday

Today I'm backing a Total that has over adjusted to the low scoring games in Detroit at Clippers.
Both teams have posted low scoring games and trend on the match up is also pointing to the Under, but Clippers are at home and this may not be a great bounce back spot for the score I still see the number as a weak Under. I take a shot on the Over.

DET/LAC OVER 174.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Looking at late late games. The early game goes in the win column.

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Saturday

I've looking to get the moose off my back and I'll be attacking this game for the Half and Full game. The match up today is New Jersey Nets at San Antonio Spurs. When the Spurs have a climbing score on the road and return home the nature of their game is to turn up the defense and when these two teams grind it out the Total is likely to sink Under.
Nets scoring problem is shadowed by defensive woes and they really need to clamp it down tonight. 187 to 187.5 is a high total set by the books for these two teams and I doubt either teams getting to triple digits tonight.

NJN/SAS First Half UNDER 92 at -110 for 2 units(W)
NJN/SAS UNDER 187 at -110 for 2 units(W)

Recovered!
2-0 +4.00 units

NBA Friday

Hornets at Suns. Here's a interesting thought, New Orleans are an Over team and Phoenix are hitting the Under thanks to the just beyond numbers being set by the line makers. Now the games at the valley of the Suns have the cappers scratching their collective heads. I see the line movement on the Total is getting downward pressure from 209.5 to 209, but this game is due to bust open. Suns are not covering the double digit spreads and almost got caught sleeping against the Cats only to pull away in OT (still losing ATS) and Hornets in last three games have been making bad court decision and shot selection. I see both teams coming in focused and attacking the basket. I look for both teams to top the triple digit mark to take this game Over.

NOH/PHO Over 209 at +100 for 2 units(L)

Crap, another close loser
0-1 -2.00 units

NBA Thursday

I'm waiting on the total to come out for Spurs at Kings. I'm thinking the number should be fairly low on the strength of Spurs defense maybe the number will be luring the Under takers in the low 190's and I would advise to take the Over. Kings are meshing at this point regardless or Artest distraction and they should come out firing at the surging Spurs. I would even consider taking the home dog as the ATS number should rise, but hey my game right now is the Total and that's what I'll stick with. Be back later when the numbers are out. Good luck people.

Sure enough the number is just about where I thought it would land.

SAS/SAC OVER 193.5 at +103 for 2 units(L)

Adding to this play:

SAS/SAC OVER 193 at +100 for 2 units(Push)

Man, I was right there and needed that last shot. Bibby had a off night when I expected him to have the hot hands.

0-1-1 -2.00 units

NBA Wednesday

How did I miss 2 days of NBA? It's tough when my days start at 6am and don't get back till 10pm. Today I'm looking at Bulls at Heat. I know the Bulls are surging with Ben Gordon making some noise, Kirk Hinrich also doing his part and Luol Deng doing it down low, but the game is in Miami tonight with Heat's depth to be tested I'm looking forward to a scrappy game.
Slower tempo and protection of perimeter will take this game Under. Chicago's last game against the Bucks was Over before the OT both teams scoring triple digits in regulation which is not exactly Chicago's style. Miami has held last three opponents in the 80's point range and that's what they need to do to stay in striking distance.

Although this line has moved lower since the opening I will still take a shot.

CHI/MIA UNDER 184.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)

Heat, UNDER...Money!
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Sunday

I was hoping to spend a lazy Sunday, but it didn't turn out that way. I'm not getting into the details, but there was way too many things to do than expected and I was going to pass up on capping the games tonight. Well games are going my way so I'll go with the flow.
The game tonight is Utah Jazz at New Orleans Hornets. Jazz is only -1 ATS on this game and I'm sure it'll be a popular pick. That's a lot of credit to Hornets at home by the line makers.
I'm not going to argue that, but similar to Orlando at Dallas last night only tonight's home court is driven by defensive energy. Jazz have been making opponents struggle for points and for Hornets to have a chance tonight they will have to make it hard on Jazz to score. So I will take the Under 196.5

UTA/NOH UNDER 196.5 at -108 for 2 units(L)

Couldn't keep the run going! Maybe a bit more time and effort.
0-1 -2.16 units

NBA Saturday

Taking a shot at the day game with Boston at New Jersey.
Nets are starting to win games in high scoring fashion, 3 in a row at home with 5 straight games scoring over 100+ points, they've also allowed over 100+ in 3 of those games. Needless to say the Over has cashed 5 out of their last 6. Boston is not built that way they managed to break triple digits against NYK 2/28, PHO 2/21, SAC 2/20, MIL 2/14, MIN 2/11 out of their last 10 games, but that's 50% you'd say? yes dictated by the tempo and I don't think that's the way these two teams match up. Nets have Kidd and Carter playing guards driving into the paint they either score or go to the line I see that Boston surely sees it too. Celtics success is more on Pierce and Jefferson that's guard and forward I see more balance to back and front court.
Unless the outside shooting is red hot I don't see both teams going over the century mark and this game to sink Under

NJN/BOS UNDER 199 at -103 for 2 units(W)

Not even OT can get this game to go Over!
1-0 +2.00 units
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I have a interesting angle on 9:00 eastern game. It's Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks.
Many of you may read my opening and instantly see the pick as Under 189. Well, Magic is 24-36 favoring Under and Mavs are 25-32 favoring Under, but what I see is Magic licking their wound unable to score in San Antonio with only 65 attempts making 28 and getting out boarded 35-43, that is a motivator especially against the top team like the Mavs. Dallas went 95-92 win against the Cavs at home, but much too close than what Mavs are able to do. They did not finish well giving Lebron 2 looks at 3 point try. That's not what a champion team does and Dallas will come in with killer instinct in mind or scoring instinct in mind. All this to me adds up to score going Over the fairly low number.

ORL/DAL OVER 189 at -102 for 2 units(W)

2nd half pushes the number Over!
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Friday

Sorry I traveling today and I'm not going to force a pick today.