Here's something to chew on for you late night cappers.
DEN/SAC. This match up has the Kings dominating at Arco for quite sometime. Kings are scoring again, which is a good sign for Saco backers, and Bibby is hot. Last game, OT loss against Toronto, was a last second coin flip.
Denver on back to back blow out by the Clips, maybe declining from an peak?
Or was the run-and-gun Nuggets out of gas?
The Denver Nuggets are in their second day off without a basketball game in Sacramento.
It's one of those rare opportunities where Denver, the road team, is waiting for the home team to get back to the city to play basketball.
The Nuggets with a much deserved rest. They have played six games in the last eight days, five games in the last seven days and it showed.
The Nuggets did practice earlier this morning in Sacramento and they are looking recharged. This group will come out ready to bounce back.
Don't be fooled by the small spread, Kings -1.5 is a dangerous play.
If you like Denver, wait for price & line move to your advantage.

*Buying 1.5 points
DEN/SAC OVER 202 -123 for 3 units

The line has moved down and I will take this at 200 or better before game time.

DEN/SAC OVER 200 -128 for 3 units
----------------------------------------------------
DET/NJN is showing an total on the high side of match up, which came down 0.5 points from the open.
Pistons clamp down on the road and Nets coming off 104-113 loss at Sonics, was the second most points given up this season. I think Nets were running out of gas in Seattle and really hurt their defensive game. Nets need to keep their opponents in the 80's to low 90's like they were doing during their winning streak. I'm looking for better than 185 here to take the Under, but I'm not going to push it. I could of bought 185.5 at the opening.
Another line I'll be watching.

I'm skipping this one, it's gone the other way.
----------------------------------------------------------

I'm watching the line on CHI/DAL. Mavs have been beating opponents by at least 14 points. I really like their D, though triple digit scoring being the Dallas trade mark defense doesn't ring the bell with this team.
Bulls are also, arguably, a defensive team, but also scoring in the 100+ points in recent games. So to confuse this issue some more, they are both scoring 99+ point range and holding opponents to 90~92 point range. So the O/U 195.5 has not moved since opening. I'll watch this Total. Kind of like the Under, but maybe this number will improve.
But I do have a view, and that is.....
Bulls are 1st Half team and Mavs are 2nd Half team.
Will this translate to an play? We shall see.... If they give me +5 or better in the 1st Half, that might be enough to push me into ATS.

Total moved away.
I got a nice ATS at +5.5 and bought 1 point.
CHI 1st Half +6.5 -123 for 3 units

I haven't heard from BetCrimes, something happening in the South Pacific?

Should of played the Lakers game conservatively, but I did write "homer play".

I took this one last night, I know it doesn't take much time to publish the info, but sometimes I'm just too tired to sit in front of the computer.

Houston at Memphis. This game is getting very low number. For Rockets it goes back 8 games to NO 1/14 (80-86). For Grizz it goes back 7 games to NO 1/18 (79-87).
It is a big Public play so tread lightly.

HOU/MEM OVER 170 -113 for 1 unit(L)
As the saying goes "When it's too good to be true...."
0-1 -1.13 units

I'll play the early game for the 1st Half.

PHO 1st Half ML +108 for 1 unit(W)
1st Half and beyond 1st Half was an Suns letdown.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

My homer pick for Sunday feature game.
Lakers had a so so game against the Warriors, The game after 81 game, and that game looked like Kobe was content with his boys doing the heavy lifting until 4th quarter calling. I saw it as hurting Warriors was not worthy of full on Kobe. Today is different L.A. Top Gun will come to play.
Detroit treading with 2 ATS losses at home and giving too many points.
Fade the public.

LAL 1st Half +5 -110 for 2 units(L)
LAL 1st Half ML +231 for 1 unit(L)
LAL +10 -121 for 1 unit(W)
2-2 -1.12

In this league you must look deeply into troubled teams as these teams have shown resilience in the face of injuries plaguing their team and also consider if the opponent will under estimate the match.
Today I will take sides on POR/GSW with the Warriors showing amazing resilience against the Laker that looked to cruise to a win in the first half, unfolded an incredible turn around in the second half. It was only the will of Kobe in the late 4th quarter to put it into OT and ultimately a Lakers win, but Warriors take ATS win with 6 guys.
I would call the 2nd of back to back, road/home against Portland also on 2nd of back to back, home/road, a good spot for Warriors to finally win one, SU win, but I don't think they have no business giving +5.5 points to the surging Blazers. Portland is tenacious on the glass and will not give up the inside drive.

PORTLAND +5.5 -103 for 2 units(L)

Players don't like this play, the price is moving against me.
I'm adding the 1st Half.

POR +3 1st Half -106 for 2 units(L)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Here's a turn around game with Denver visiting Los Angeles Clippers.
Let's see if the theory holds true on scoring increase.
The number has dropped from the opening, but now bouncing off 193.5
Buying the 1.5 off 194

DEN/LAC OVER 192.5 -123 for 2 units(L)

Alternating good day and bad day. Hope my plays return on Sunday.
0-3 -6.78 units

PHO/ATL looks like a spot where the sharps will take the Hawks with points after Suns upset win against Miami, long road trip, blah, blah, blah....
I took the first half Under with Suns last night to lose the only sequence in the game total to go Over (1st Quarter Under, 1st Half Over, 2nd Half Under and game Under) Today I like the 1st Half to go Over, but the number is 106 with the price of -121. That's a pointed shaded over with no value.
I seem to be doing better on ATS right now. There's enough in the tank for the first half.

SUNS 1st Half -3.5 -105 for 2 units(W)
-------------------------------------------------------------
Another Half period play I like is the fade on Pacers.
I don't think they are ready to bounce back yet. What's with Peja taking his sweet time? He's not playing today.
There's flu like symptom going around the Indiana club too.

CAVS 1st Half -2 -105 for 3 units(W)
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Ron Artest will make his debut with the Sacramento Kings on Friday when they visit the Boston Celtics, who also will have a new look after making a seven-player trade Thursday. The Celtics swapped their second-leading scorer Ricky Davis, center Mark Blount, point guard Marcus Banks, forward Justin Reed and a pair of conditional second-round picks for Minnesota forward Wally Szczerbiak, centers Michael Olowokandi and Dwayne Jones and a future first-round pick. Szczerbiak ranked second on the Timberwolves with a 20.1 scoring average and immediately will fill Davis' role as Paul Pierce's primary support on offense. Transition will take it's toll in form of score.
It'll take a bit for Celtics to get going and Artest is not going to help matters.

SAC/BOS 1st Half Under 100 +103 for 3 units(W)
SAC/BOS Under 199 -106 for 2 units(W)

Clutch strikes back!
4-0 +10.09 units

Suns at Miami against the Heat.
Last time these two teams faced each other in Phoenix, Suns knocked in 47 1st quarter points and coasted the rest of the way.
I think the scheme for this game is to defend the home court and clamp down early. Suns will have to hit high percentage from the outside because they're not opening the middle to drive it in.
The value is in the 1st half.

PHO/MIA 1st Half Under 108.5 -126 for 1 unit(L)
------------------------------------------------------------------

Adding.

SEA 1st Half +3 -114 for 2 units(W)
-------------------------------------------------------------
Adding.
DAL 2nd Half -3 +100 for 2 units(W)

Don't have much to comment on the two half period wins.
Played it on an whim. Capricious wins are just that.
Thinking of getting back to the early lines...we'll see
2-1 +2.74 units

I'm staying with the under performing Bobcats facing T-Mac and the Rockets.
I like the Under play at Toyota Center. Cats focus today should be to keep the ball away from T-Mac and they might do this with disregard for much of the other Rockets. You know, it could work, but scoring's not coming easy.

CHA/HOU 1st Half Under 92.5 -108 for 2 units(L)
Should of taken the full game Under 185!
0-1 -2.16 units

I'm taking one game today with Bobcats at Spurs.
The Spurs will look to bounce back after a four-point home loss to Denver, a game in which the Spurs surrendered 32 fast break points and missed 19 three-point attempts. Spurs guard Manu Ginobili continues to nurse a sprained ankle suffered in Miami on Friday night.
The starting lineup for the Bobcats tonight will be Brevin Knight and Raymond Felton in the backcourt with Primoz Brezec, Bernard Robinson, and Jumaine Jones upfront. Jones is making his third start of the season.
Expect Melvin Ely to return to action tonight against the Spurs after missing the last 11 games with a sprained right ankle. He is the help Primoz needs in the post. Cats are still putting up low 90's with all the injuries, but they are giving up too many points in the paint. It's not going to be easy with the Spurs, but the Cats are full of surprises. Oh yeah, Duncan has a sore arch on his foot limiting his speed, but he can go lateral down low.
Line opened at 188.5 (Pinny) quickly dropped and went down to 186.
I'm sensing arb play in the middle, but for those speculators out there
note the display price and buy the 1.5 points.

CHA/SAS UNDER 188 -107 for 2 units(W)
The Cats give up 104, but hey it was the angry Spurs coming off a loss and they shut down the Cats to the tune of 76 points.

I'll be leaning on my freind Batis today.
Taking the home dog on this monday and buying 0.5 points on the ATS.

ATL +6.5 -120 for 3 units(W)
Sorry for my late post-game comments.
I'm so happy, I feel like the Hawks snapping the losses.
1-0 +3.00 units

Today I will play one total with Seattle at Phoenix and this should of been published last night as the number got away.
This number opened at 219 (BetCris) and 218.5 (Pinny)
I was able to buy 1.5 to the Pinny number for lofty 220.
Suns are clamping down at home and they take down teams with offense scoring 99+ points.

This will be my main game for Sunday.
SEA/PHO UNDER 220 -123 for 3 units(L)
-------------------------------------------------------------
The day has started with Unders taking the early game and I feel the Under will dominate the match ups, but Kings playing 2nd of road B2B at Miami, Heat will want to push the ball today. Shaq should be refreshed and ready to turn it on in the paint. Kings poor scoring against Orlando and missing starters coming back, Kings will get back to moving the ball finding the open man.
Teams come geared to play against the contender, I look for Kings to come out firing and wear out in the 2nd Half.

SAC/MIA 1st Half OVER 102.5 -110 for 1 unit(W)
----------------------------------------------------------

SEA/PHO in Half Time and they did do their thing in the first, but game like this can shift.

SEA/PHO 2nd Half UNDER 109.5 -126 for 4 units(L) *I bought 1 point

I'll need to get back to the drawing board. Worst single day l0ss to date.
1-2 -11.73 units

I must confess, the loss last night with IND/MIN Over 176.5 was in anticipation of today's CHI/IND going under. Although the scoring sequence proved to be a loser, the late game surge held true. The moose was at the door looking to knock in one more basket for 177 total.
I would feel much better going into today with a Over win yesterday, both teams playing back to back with much energy focused on the closing of the game and both teams letting the win slip away.
One thing that does stand out, this subject has come up quite a bit, Pacers are coming out soft and playing catch up. Bulls seem to play tough 1st half and have tough time in the 2nd half.

CHI 1st Half +3.5 -110 for 2 units(W)
CHI/IND UNDER -188 -123 for 3 units(L)
Wrong Total sequence
----------------------------------------------------------

Can the Bobcats keep their ship from sinking? How many holes can they cover when new leaks keep popping up? The last one was a huge hole....G. Wallace was carrying this team and now he's out.
Bucks doesn't bring the fear of Pistons, but I say the ship is sinking, Brevin Knight, Raymond Felton or Primoz Brezec will not be able to stop this.
Interestingly this line before Wallace going down was at MIL -8 and O/U 199
So comparing the difference the Total did not take much of a hit.
Don't you see the two three zone coming on this one.
For now MIL on ATS looks strong.

MIL -3 1st Quarter -105 for 2 units(L)
MIL -6 1st Half -111 for 3 units(L)
MIL -10 -129 for 2 units(P)
Bucks suck. Came out flat to start 10-0 playing catch up all of first half.
Didn't make it in time to hit the Under that was pushed up too high.
Top it off I passed on Cleveland ATS & CLE/UTA Over.
Not my weekend
1-3-1 -6.12.

Here are two teams known for their defensive traits.
Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves
This match up brings thoughts of grinding half court game and the line for this game opened at 179 (Pinny)
But looking at both teams the scores are on the rise.
Pacers are hurting they'll be shorthanded again as Jermaine O'Neal sits with an ankle, Jamaal Tinsley with an elbow, and Scot Pollard with a back-- all are doubtful. In addition, Stephen Jackson with flu-like symptoms and Fred Jones with a right thigh bruise made the injury report, though both are listed as probably for the game. But the line up of Croshere, Granger, Harrison, Jackson and Johnson has 4-2 record and defense will give more, hopefully the Pacers scoring will keep up. Current Pacers have punched through 90 point scoring 4 out of last 5 games.
T-Wolves are playing offense too. Their defense is good at home, but scoring is also up. I'm sure the game will have that defensive tone, but look for the score to go slightly over the number.

As usual buying 1.5 points from current line.
IND/MIN OVER 176.5 -115 for 2 units(L)
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Lakers at Suns.
Lakers OT loss playing back to back road games. I see Suns wanting to come out gunning and Lakers front court to give a little.

LAL/PHO 1st Quarter Over 52.5 -114 for 1 unit(L)
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My late addition is Mavs to come out strong against the Clips in L.A.
DAL 1st Quarter -1.5 Even for 2 units(W)

------------------------------------------------------------
2nd Half addition. LAL/PHO game is sluggish with much hope of 2nd half scoring. I don't think it'll happen.
LAL/PHO 2nd Half UNDER 104.5 -120 for 2 units(L)

Bad outing.
1-3 -3.84 units

2 games today and the Sharps are on NYK with big points and LAL giving small points.

I like the game in New York to go Under, but I was hoping for 195 O/U.
It's like they knew what I was thinking, so the battle of wits continue.
The number is getting pushed 193 (BoDog) now, but Pinny holding at 191.5 while most others have moved that number up. Pinny is bold and I think their lines are one of the sharpest in the business, they too looks like Under bias on this game and taking in the Over money.
Lets watch this one, it will move.

DET/NYK UNDER 194 -123 for 2 units(W)

What the hell happened to the 2nd Half lines?
Can't take all the credit for this Under, BetCrimes had it marked Under days ago. Should of unloaded on this line.
------------------------------------------------------------------

I think Lakers will take this. Kings have exceeded to a level they can not sustain. Lakers to set the tone at the start.

LAL 1st Half ML -130 for 2 units(L)
OK, Maybe that was a homer pick, but didn't Kobe get contact on his last shot at the end of 1st half? That was a three pointer too.
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1-1 -0.60 Lost the juice

I'm taking a early line tonight.
Watch this ATS with WAS/ORL with majority is on WAS +1.
Wizards riding 4 game winning streak and Magic with 4 losses, but
getting stronger ATS. Looks like the line is predicting Magic SU.
I can't say that's a strong play, more of a line play, what I do like
is Wizards taking the games Under. I said this before, books have not caught up to adjustments made by Washington defense.
On Orlando side, Francis coming back for Magic might be a good thing for the Under. Grant Hill is most likely out tomorrow and Jameer should get some court time, but he will be marked. Going through technical indicators on Magic's numbers they have a fast rising peak with gradual decline.
The last cycle being 1/10 Clips game scored 73-90 (L), sharp rise 1/11 Sonics game scored 104-113 (L), I'd equate the next game as sideways or tapered
1/13 Blazers game 108-113 (L) and last game as declining 1/15 Kings game 100-104 (L) Next one should fall below 100 points.
The total for this game opened at 202 (BetCRIS) and now pushed up to 205.5,
I'm buying 1.5 points

WAS/ORL UNDER 207 -130 for 2 units(W)
There was some surge at the 4th quarter countering the Orlando lower output. The Line was correct in predicting Magic win and UNDER survived to take the win.
1-0 +2.00 units
Also nice win to Batis on Boston.

The DVD release of "Two for the Money" commercial is blaring on Sports Talk radio. Haven't seen it yet, but this is another example of how far this industry has come.
I see syndicated funds getting bigger, head handicapper wheeling the power, to the likes of Wall Street money managers, can move lines and change or reverse the money flow. Keep in mind the ultimate big money play is to arb, to capture plus money on both sides of the wagerline and lock in the profit regardless of the outcome. However this is easier said than done.

Lets move on to the game for tonight.
The Suns and Kings meet for second of four regular season game.
The last meet was 118-117, which was light years in early NBA 2005/06
Nov. 6th. Kings started this season on a bad note and did the same act on game 2.
Kings beat the Suns on the 3rd game, Shareef two free throws to edge the game. Then they went on to lose 2 more, front and back of B2B game.
The Kings along the way made adjustments, got better, looked like they might float and now everybody's hurt.
The straight up win against Orlando was a big emotional lift, gut check kind of game combined with strong match up trend. Today the long trend is against them and Pacific division Suns will take convincing revenge.
Keeping in mind Bibby has been hitting his range today is a drop down spot. Prior to Orlando Kings failed to reach 90 points (85 MEM & 88 HOU & 83 IND) with Hornets holding them to 76 in their last 5 games.
PHO is giving up over 100+ in their last 5 and 3 season trend tracks very strong Over against Kings, but fundamentals tell me this will look similar to recent PHL/PHO (85-105) or
MIA/PHO (93-111) type scoring.
I will wait on the Total.

PHO 1st Half -3.5 -117 for 2 units(L)
Ooops, I took the wrong side of a blow out. Reminds me of the Clips game.
0-1 -2.34 units

MLK Day. Games happening all day long.
I did have some writing prepared for early today. You know, on the NYK Over play. But I had a second thought as my own rule for B2B Over is against rested opponent allowing or scoring 99+ points with some situational exception.
When you've capped as long as I have things start to repeat themselves and when your senses raise a red flag you better follow it.

Much of my energy is focused on getting to the Lakers game tonight.
Not no nose bleed seats either, center court floor seats fetching premium dollars. It's not secured yet, but my back up seats are just about locked in.
So what's the Play?.....I'll be back in awhile.

So for this game I like the score to sink Under. Miami punched in 100 points at Utah, but that game was looking Under all the way. The Over will be the public's choice, right now you can buy up to 205.5, I'm just looking to get the best price.

*Looking back at Heat at Jazz, Shaq didn't have much of a game which bothers me. I still like the Under to play out against the public, but maybe I'll wait for the 2nd half. Unfortunately I will not be able to publish that play.

I'll take a small spot on Lakers First Half. I would go moneyline, but why not take the tie breaker at plus money.
LAKERS 1st Half +0.5 +112 1 unit(W)
Told you this game goes Under. It was Under from the Start and Yes, I hit the 2nd Half Under 102, but I'm not going to count that win.

-------------------------------------------------------------
Batis pointed out the Over in SAS/MEM game and I agree with the turn around game. Both teams get to play knowing each others tendencies.
First they both want to be the aggressor from the gate then settle down in the 2nd quarter. Come out hard after the half and keep it close in the 4th.
SAS/MEM 1st Quarter OVER 42.5 +107 for 1 unit(W)
SAS/MEM OVER 168.5 -123 for 2 units(W)

Just as I visioned.
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Nice game, nice wins, Today was a good day.
3-0 +4.00

NYK/TOR game is finished. I'm not much on post game talk, but I will admit NYK games OVER trend is one hot ticket. Books know it, Sharps know it and Public rides it. Although the line is almost always shaded you can see the battle at the opening lines. Books shade the Total Over and as that number reaches ever higher the Sharps are ready to pound the Under. Maybe the players are looking for scoring drought to reverse this trend, Balanced game to come just under the number, whatever it is that was not the case today.
Knicks are doing it on both sides of the floor, They're scoring or giving up the score. I thought about buying it lower and taking the Over, but blinked. I'm old school and respect the Linemakers to balance the numbers over the season, but definitely Over Team.
If you have been playing NYK games Over.....Nice gain!

I understand the Sharp money is often exceeding Public money on some games. So who knows what the books are plotting..... LOL
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Turn back the date to Dec. 26, 2005.
Portland has started to play better, after losing 1st quarter they took the rest sending Kings to their 5th straight loss. After the game Sacramento Kings are on the shuttle to Los Angeles for 2nd leg of back to back game, news breaks Shareef broke his jaw, sending the lines scrambling....off the top of my head,
I think it was Clips -5 moved to Clips -8.5 and what happened? Mike Bibby went insane put up 38 points and Kings cashed as big time road dog.

Back to Jan. 6, 2006.
Clips revenge game back at Arco. But Voodoo is still working.
Clips come into this game with ATS -1,
Linemakers should say "we don't know who will win".
Again Mike Bibby surging in the 4th taking the game and ATS.
Why did I bring this up? To illustrate strengths of match up trends?
Clips have not beat the Kings in last 100 years. But when does trend exceed logic? When they start to give up too many points in face of weak depth combined with losses, like Bobcats & Rockets, Kings fit that mold.

Orlando comes to Arco tonight. Magic has not won in Sacramento in 12 years and they have not won on the road in 2006. But wait the first 3 game road trip this year they are 2-1 ATS. This 3 game road trip will end tonight with last game pushing ATS and Magic was in that game all the way into the 4th quarter.
Magic has their load of baggage, but I think they are much better unit without Francis. Dooiling loss hurts a bit, still the unit is better than what Kings have right now.
Break the curse or not. ATS looks pretty strong. I'm watching the line.

I'll be back before the game.

I am in at.....
ORL +6 -123 for 1 unit(W)

I'd like to thank Jameer Nelson for the effort in a losing game,
but covering ATS.
Hell of a game for the point guard.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Today's selection at the Association.

Bobcats on 2nd of back to back with huge effort taking ATS +2.5 against the Bucks in the first leg. Today they face the best, Detroit Pistons at home.
Cats are getting +16.5 & +9 for 1st Half. Respects to the Pistons, but money is going to Cats with points. G. Wallace playing big and like I said yesterday, this team has heart.
I expect Cats defense to weaken, but they will stay aggressive as they turn up inside outside game and run the floor. Today's total trends Under for the match up as these team have not cashed on lines at 190's, but 2nd of B2B Over theory applied Cats to score little less and Pistons to exceed 100+

CHA/DET OVER 187.5 -125 for 2 units(W)
I'm going to take the middle in the 2nd Half.
CHA/DET 2nd Half UNDER 94 -105 for 2 units(L)
Got too greedy on this game.
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Sixth road game in 10 days and 2nd of back to back for Miami. Coming off huge scoring game against Sonics. Jazz also won last game with huge scoring output, much of that coming at the paint. Drop down spot for the Score.

MIA/UTA UNDER 192.5 -118 for 1 unit(L)
I did not think Heat would score 100 points, not tonight.
Miami is good, but I was close.

-------------------------------------------------------
Cleveland has been aggressive around the rim and scoring chunks come in the paint. Last game should of easily gone over 100+ if it wasn't for their rare poor shooting at the line. Lets look for todays game to clear the century mark.
Even better in the first half.

CLE/PHO 1st Half OVER 101 -127 for 2 units(W)
Waaay Over 101 !
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I took this play from Batis, but just in case Kobe hits that 3 pointer at end of game down by 5
GSW ML -134 for 1 unit(L)
Spread did not matter. Sorry Batis, Warriors did not keep up in the 4th.

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Sonics don't look good and why should this game get total of 205?
Brand back in the middle to shut down the low post.

Sorry, my mistake no Brand tonight, but this game still looking Under as Clippers having block party in the paint.

SEA/LAC 1st Half UNDER 104.5 -109 for 2 units(W)
SEA/LAC UNDER 205 -107 for 1 unit(W)
I don't know what the Linemakers were thinking on this one.
I should of unloaded on this line.
-----------------------------------------------
4-3 +2.38 Could of been better, wasted a perfectly good Over winner with CHA/DET. We'll reset the board and do it again tomorrow.

In last game point guard Brevin Knight started the game but could not play in the second half because of lower back spasms. Charlotte led the Raptors at the half by 12 points, but did not hit a field goal in the final four minutes and 19 seconds and were outscored 11-1 over that time.
If Knight cannot play today, the list of players out of action for the Bobcats are Emeka Okafor, Kareem Rush, Jake Voskuhl and Melvin Ely.
Friday's game is the start of three games in four days for the Bobcats.
Cats play with heart, these guys have been playing banged up and players are hungry for court time and if it wasn't for the embarrassing loss by the Bucks to the Pacers I might have stayed off the ATS.
The Bucks lost that game on 56% shooting & 23 for 33 FTA by Indy.
I like the Bucks front court match up and I expect Bucks to close the gap on Bobcat shooters.

MIL has yet to reach 100 points in 2006.
CHA has done it once in regulation in 2006.
Bucks -3.5 -114 for 2 units(L)
MIL/CHA Under 195 -123 for 3 units(L)
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Will Calvin Booth and Michael Ruffin once again start in place of Jamison and Haywood? Head Coach Eddie Jordan says that will be a game time decision.
Looking at this match up, WAS/IND Total 195.5~196 (opened 193), Booth and Ruffin will give defensive tone to this game. Wizards scoring output has been on the decline since the start of this year. The team is adjusting towards defense and the number has not caught up to them. Yes, they scored 103 - 72 win against the Hawks, but with 60 points in the paint. Can they do that against Indy? Wizards have gone Under 4 out of last 5 games.
Pacers held Bucks to 88 points in their last win. So far in Jan. Pacers have played 3 games out of 6 holding opponents in 80's taking the win. 96 points twice and allowed 106 in loss to Denver, Nugs were very sharp at home that night.
Looks like the books are going to let this number run Over.
I'll be watching to hit the Under.

I'll take a position.
WAS/IND UNDER 197 -118 for 1 unit(W)
Added.
WAS/IND UNDER 197 -109 for 1 unit(W)
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Adding.
POR 1st Quarter -1 -113 for 1 unit(P)
POR 1st Half -2 -123 for 2 units(L)
-----------------------------------------------------------

MIA/SEA 1st Quarter OVER 52.5 -111 for 1 unit(W)

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Last one for tonight.

POR 2nd Half -4 -111 for 3 units(W)

Not an good result. MIL/CHA game really killed the day.
4-3-1 -2.43 units

Only one game left tonight, CLE/LAL.
Lakers coming off a loss to Portland and now faces Cleveland on the second leg of Road/Home game. I have an Over bias on the 2nd game, but tonight I feel the Lakers will try to do too much in their come back effort and their energy will diminish as the game progresses.

CLE/LAL UNDER 195 -107 for 1 unit(L)

Missed the GSW/PHO 2nd Half UNDER 106.5, what a great line against the Suns that played 3OT in last 8 games.


Cavs defense started soft, but nice adjustment to make the closing run taking the lead into half time.
Adding.

CLE/LAL 2nd Half UNDER 99 -111 for 1 unit(L)

Kobe hurt his right wrist early 3rd quarter. He has not taken himself out, but also not shooting so far....

I was thinking OT is the only way I lose. No, double moose job with 62 point scoring in the 4th quarter.
0-2 -2.18 units
Time to set things right. These losses are not acceptable.

Tonight late game. Lakers are at the Rose Garden, Kobe rolling 40+ points.
Blazers will be underestimated and they will take the battle of the boards.
I expect defensive effort out of the gate.

LAL/POR 1st Half UNDER 98 -125 for 1 unit(L)
Blazers take the game, but not the low scoring I was expecting.
How did Portland score over 100 points? Well, BetCrimes did call for Over bias day.

I'm being chased by time once again.

My take for tonight.

HOU/CHA UNDER 181.5 -117 for 2 units(L)

End of regulation 90-90, shit happens.
0-1 -2.34 units

I missed my deadline Sunday.
Tagged along with a friend who's looking to buy a boat.

My take for this evening is
DAL/BOS OVER 204 -120 for 2 units(W)
DAL/BOS 1st Half OVER 101 -115 for 2 units(W)

Today was an double attack on Sides and Totals from your friendly Cappers going perfecto.
2-0 +4.00 units

NBA Monday from Batis

Monday is well-known Home UnderDog Day.

I see the home team, having just 25% consensus backers, 2 game losing streak and delicious rival (4 of 5; 7 of 9 wins). This home team is lonely Home Dog on Monday and the line added pts on them through the whole day: from 3 to 4.5. I'll take it.

Boston +4.5 1.88 (4 units) Win

Math Stat is alive.
+3.52 units tonight. Hope somebody got the cash with MS.

No leans and plays today. Many interesting situations, game plan changes, adjustments and balance will continue to shape the landscape.
When you spot something write it down, human memory is fallible.

I will take a stab on the double back to back game today with San Antonio at Phoenix, what's the new arena name now? US Airways from America West, I really don't care, but nice arena to visit.
I think this one will hit close to 200.

SAS/PHO OVER 192.5 -122 for 1 unit(L)
I don't know what happened to this game, even Batis thought this was a Over.

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Adding.

LAL/LAC 2nd Half OVER 96 -105 for 2 units(W)
I can only say "Kobe"

1-1 +0.78 units

It's Friday already. Time is passing fast, casual sports fans are not even aware that MLB spring training is fast approaching with World Baseball Classic to change the outlook a little bit.
Speaking of World Baseball -280 for Japan to win Asia is a very strong Future Proposition, but -280 is not attractive.
Anyway I'm gearing up as Phoenix becomes my second home from Feb. to Apr.
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Back to the Association on Friday.
Maybe I'm not feeling the flow, into the groove or something. I liked the Unders yesterday, but failed to play them and Houston is fast becoming a monkey on my back.
I have a angle today that will most likely loose if I play, so I'm not, that's
WAS/NYK UNDER 211.5
Wiz 111 points in 111-123 loss to Houston. Washington meltdown in 3rd quarter when they were holding a lead at the Half.
Knicks last game was the triple OT win, but they blew a 13 point 2nd half lead to put it into OT.
This number looks high, but so does all other Knicks games and probably has the best chance of getting moosed.
I thought I come back and gloat on this play, but you know it would of went over if I played it.
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I will take the 2nd leg of back to back game, Houston at Toronto, with one of the highest Totals set for this match up. I do see tie in with the 2nd leg game with opponent scoring 97 points or better, rested, at home and Raptors give up better than 100+ at home.
First Half Total set at 95 with Game Total set at 191 (came down from 193)

HOU/TOR OVER 189.5 -123 for 2 units(W)
That's how you want the Total to cash with 3 min. to spare in the game.
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I'm not adding here just some thoughts on tonights other games.
Seattle seems changed, it just one game with the new coach so I will watch this game against Detroit, but they look like they'll give up scoring for added strength in the low post.
Let's see if this will go Under 203 (204.5 at -126) SEA/DET
This one went Under, was not even close to 200.
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How about UTA/MEM OVER 176....This line was 172 last night.
I think Sharps and Public is on this Over. Grizz is hitting 100+ and Jazz picking up the score too.
I would not chase a run away line like this plus line makers are looking for scoring to stall here or else they would not of let this run away.
Might even be a good fade.
Great Public fade play. Like I said never chase run away lines, if the Books didn't like the Under they would of held their line.
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WAS ML +103 This looks good for a straight up win.
OK, I was wrong on this one.
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Looks like my HOU/TOR Over is off to a bad start......

Alls well that ends well, 92-112 total 204 to eclipse 189.5 !

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That was fun, but I should of pulled the trigger on at least one of my Total leans. (easy said after the games. "Could of gone 4-1")

1-0 +2.00 units

Not much to play today. Everybody loves Houston with Cleveland playing 2nd game of back to back. Rockets started the line at +9, Hughes went out with broken finger, line went to 7.5 and now it's all the way to 6.5 !
Are people over estimating Rocket or am I under estimating them.
Oh yeah, Rockets routinely go into 120+ points and blow out their opponents.
Staying on my fade.

CLE 1st Half -3 -122 for 1 unit(L)
Houston is getting on my nerves. Oh and Rockets covered 2nd Half +6.5 too.

I'm not sure how much misery the Bulls can endure, but they sure look banged up for this match up. Sonics will have a different look with two young centers active.

SEA +1.5 1st Half -105 for 2 units(W)
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Orlando is getting killed. In badly need of 2nd half surge.

ORL -4 2nd Half -105 for 1 unit(L)
Raptors wire to wire. How often do you see that.

1-1 +0.95 units

I have one early selection. I think this one will end with both teams in low 90's.
If Washington can contain T-Mac Rockets might end in the 80's.

HOU/WAS UNDER 193 -127 for 1 unit(L)

Should of taken the general Over trend more into consideration as this line has moved higher since last night.
I think Wizards need to protect their home, defend their court and that's how their wins have come at home. Houston are 85~90 point scoring team right now.
Adding.
HOU/WAS UNDER 194 -117 for 1 unit(L)

WAS -1.5 1st Quarter -105 for 1 unit(L)

82 points in 3rd quarter kills this Under. Wiz did not have a handle on T-Mac and I was counting the chicks at the 1st Half.
0-3 -3.49 units

This line has really moved and I didn't hit it that long ago.
Seattle playing respectable game on the road will go against the struggling Pacers getting points. I do see danger in playing such a public play and I'll eliminate the final outcome going with the 1st Half.

SEA 1st Half +3.5 -108 for 1 unit(L)

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Early round scoring to return.

BOS/DEN 1st Quarter OVER 53.5 -111 for 2 units(W)
BOS/DEN 1st Half OVER 106.5 -112 for 1 unit(W)

Sonics tanked, but late game promptly goes over.
2-1 +1.92 units

New Year games are thin. Wolves and Heats are well into the 4th quarter with Miami winning by 20. Things seem to be shaping up in the East.

The two remaining games, LAC/POR & UTA/LAL, I'm passing the game in Los Angeles. I do have an observation though, public loves the Over with the low number (opened 177 and come down to 176) They loved the Over at 177 and yet the number fell. UTA on 2nd of back to back scored 108 in regulation in the first leg, that is first time this season. This has the writing of a scrappy game, will Lamar lead the Lakers? will Parker hit from outside? will Mihm hold his own?....too many questions for me, but line tells me the Under 176 is the right play.
The Clips and Blazers. I would of guessed Clips to dominate the game last night and I thought they had the advantage the game before against under manned Kings. When the team does not bounce back after a beating, it doesn't have to cover or even win SU, but bounce back effort....surge in scoring from previous or holding your opponent better than the last, that team is in danger of becoming a stepping team. That's what's happening to the Clippers as they will face a fast improving Blazers at home getting points. Top it off the public is all over the Clippers. I like POR +2, but I'm not going to play this.
Instead I will take the first half game and look for Clips defense to adjust.

LAC/POR 1st Half Under 94.5 -112 for 1 unit(L)
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Clips are playing smart game, Blazer ended the first with momentum.

LAC/POR 2nd Half OVER 90.5 -113 for 2 units(W)

I was wrong on the Unders. 2nd half adjustment worked out.
1-1 +0.88 units

HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!!