Sunday, January 01, 2006

New Year games are thin. Wolves and Heats are well into the 4th quarter with Miami winning by 20. Things seem to be shaping up in the East.

The two remaining games, LAC/POR & UTA/LAL, I'm passing the game in Los Angeles. I do have an observation though, public loves the Over with the low number (opened 177 and come down to 176) They loved the Over at 177 and yet the number fell. UTA on 2nd of back to back scored 108 in regulation in the first leg, that is first time this season. This has the writing of a scrappy game, will Lamar lead the Lakers? will Parker hit from outside? will Mihm hold his own?....too many questions for me, but line tells me the Under 176 is the right play.
The Clips and Blazers. I would of guessed Clips to dominate the game last night and I thought they had the advantage the game before against under manned Kings. When the team does not bounce back after a beating, it doesn't have to cover or even win SU, but bounce back effort....surge in scoring from previous or holding your opponent better than the last, that team is in danger of becoming a stepping team. That's what's happening to the Clippers as they will face a fast improving Blazers at home getting points. Top it off the public is all over the Clippers. I like POR +2, but I'm not going to play this.
Instead I will take the first half game and look for Clips defense to adjust.

LAC/POR 1st Half Under 94.5 -112 for 1 unit(L)
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Clips are playing smart game, Blazer ended the first with momentum.

LAC/POR 2nd Half OVER 90.5 -113 for 2 units(W)

I was wrong on the Unders. 2nd half adjustment worked out.
1-1 +0.88 units

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