Monday, January 30, 2006

Here's something to chew on for you late night cappers.
DEN/SAC. This match up has the Kings dominating at Arco for quite sometime. Kings are scoring again, which is a good sign for Saco backers, and Bibby is hot. Last game, OT loss against Toronto, was a last second coin flip.
Denver on back to back blow out by the Clips, maybe declining from an peak?
Or was the run-and-gun Nuggets out of gas?
The Denver Nuggets are in their second day off without a basketball game in Sacramento.
It's one of those rare opportunities where Denver, the road team, is waiting for the home team to get back to the city to play basketball.
The Nuggets with a much deserved rest. They have played six games in the last eight days, five games in the last seven days and it showed.
The Nuggets did practice earlier this morning in Sacramento and they are looking recharged. This group will come out ready to bounce back.
Don't be fooled by the small spread, Kings -1.5 is a dangerous play.
If you like Denver, wait for price & line move to your advantage.

*Buying 1.5 points
DEN/SAC OVER 202 -123 for 3 units

The line has moved down and I will take this at 200 or better before game time.

DEN/SAC OVER 200 -128 for 3 units
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DET/NJN is showing an total on the high side of match up, which came down 0.5 points from the open.
Pistons clamp down on the road and Nets coming off 104-113 loss at Sonics, was the second most points given up this season. I think Nets were running out of gas in Seattle and really hurt their defensive game. Nets need to keep their opponents in the 80's to low 90's like they were doing during their winning streak. I'm looking for better than 185 here to take the Under, but I'm not going to push it. I could of bought 185.5 at the opening.
Another line I'll be watching.

I'm skipping this one, it's gone the other way.
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I'm watching the line on CHI/DAL. Mavs have been beating opponents by at least 14 points. I really like their D, though triple digit scoring being the Dallas trade mark defense doesn't ring the bell with this team.
Bulls are also, arguably, a defensive team, but also scoring in the 100+ points in recent games. So to confuse this issue some more, they are both scoring 99+ point range and holding opponents to 90~92 point range. So the O/U 195.5 has not moved since opening. I'll watch this Total. Kind of like the Under, but maybe this number will improve.
But I do have a view, and that is.....
Bulls are 1st Half team and Mavs are 2nd Half team.
Will this translate to an play? We shall see.... If they give me +5 or better in the 1st Half, that might be enough to push me into ATS.

Total moved away.
I got a nice ATS at +5.5 and bought 1 point.
CHI 1st Half +6.5 -123 for 3 units

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