NBA NEW YEARS EVE

Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets.

I was looking at Dallas games the two past games 12/26 & 12/27 to be specific. Two consecutive games where Mavs cracked the century scoring mark, first game Total exceeding +200 and second landing on 200, and thought about this one falling below 200. What do you know? This game Total sitting on 198.5~199 moving up from 197. Looking at Houston coming off a game scoring 108 and giving up 100 which is a rarity in regulation that's happened 3 times (scoring and allowing triple digits) in December. That's normally followed with drop in score. The last time these two teams met, 12/18 @Dallas 100-100 regulation 116-108 O.T. win and cover by Houston, was also an unlikely Over with 62 points scored in 4th quarter. So why would you not take UNDER 199? Because there's not enough room in Texas and divisional games are fought basket for basket. Mavs averaging 103 in this spot & giving up 100. Rockets are 102 offense and 105 defense making Over the play. There's movement swinging both ways so key in entry point you might consider breaking up position for cost averaging.

OVER 100 First Half (W)

NBA Wednesday

Charlotte Bobcats at Toronto Raptors.

The similarity shared by these two teams are the home court advantage and road disadvantage. Which in simplest term means Raps win at home. Here's where it get tricky. Raps 10-5 at home only failed to cover once, 12/8 giving up -7.5 to Minny and last home loss 12/11 to Atlanta going 6-1 in December at home, 5-2 ATS, pretty solid. Compared to Cats played six December road games perfect 0-6 giving Toronto enough to get the public nod making the Bobs somewhat of underestimated foes. Toronto also took a bad beat last time these two teams met in Charlotte so you think Raps will have payback in mind coming in with 4 wins in a row. But all those good thoughts are suspect. Raps revenging games are 8-11 ATS, against South East opponents 2-8 ATS and overall 50% in December games. Charlotte 11-3 ATS against sub .500 teams, 10-2 against teams allowing +99 points. Doesn't Charlotte have a chance to be the 3rd team to beat Raptors in December at home? Maybe maybe not, but I'll take the points and look for the Cats to keep it fairly close.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +6(W)

Cover baby!

NBA Tuesday

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers.

If you feel Lakers are a bit uninspired I can't blame you they failed to cover 3 out of last 4 and Phoenix wire to wire, did not lose any quarter. It wasn't Lakers scoring it was defense. So will they clamp it down against the Warriors? Golden State is on second leg of back to back beating the mighty Celtics and they have to be pumped for the Lakers. I think the Total will remain high and the number is retreating the wrong way.

OVER 217.5(W)

There was no doubt

NBA Sunday

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Clippers.
Celtics are one of those teams with odds makers making good spread adjustments keeping them just below .500 ATS. That's a team with 23-5 record to 13-15 ATS ratio which means they've dropped 10 games giving points. Within the last 10 games played they failed to cover 4 and one was SU & ATS making them 50%.
Clippers are sub .500 team with ATS slightly worse. Spread is not helping and makes them a good fade candidate. Effort has been lacking in situational spots and Clips will face one of the best road team in NBA.
ATS has been widening and this game cones on heels of Boston beating Magic in Orlando by 9 points, 14.5 ATS, compared to Clippers loss by 31 points, 21 ATS, which is a good spot for Los Angeles. Let's look for climbing ATS to help the home team.

Clippers +8.5(W)

Didn't need no points

NBA Post Christmas Saturday

Sup everyone. Did the Christmas thing and now it's back to business.

Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz.
Good team bad team scenario again. What you want to watch in this spot is Sixers narrowing margin against ATS. Currently it's going more or less sideways. On Philly's winning games it comes off single possession difference margin of 2 or 3. That type of game has been followed by very good effort, that is not the case today. Jazz coming off a bad beat is ready to rock the rim. Let's go with Utah back in Salt Lake city.

UTAH JAZZ -7(W)

Keep on keeping on!

NBA Wednesday

Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings.
When looking at this match up most players know Cavs play well away and Kings play well at home. The other standout trend is Cavs play Over away and so does the Kings at home. So when comparing these two trends doesn't it make better sense to take the Over than choosing sides? Simplicity is sometimes bliss, but considering the Over, which is a pretty popular take, the number has climbed quite a bit since opening at 202. There should be a second take on this number which all indicator pointed to being too low. The schedule sequence makes this a tough spot to score with Cavs playing 3 sets of back to back in last 10 games, Kings played 4 sets. Cavs last game scoring 109 ties highest score in last 10 games which calls for a drop down spot in score. Kings last game scoring 102 is on the high side for away game and may not translate to lower scoring at home, but Cavs holding opposition to 93 or so is good enough to buck the rising number.

UNDER 204.5 at -103

Shot myself thinking too much

NBA Saturday

Los Angeles Clippers at Philadelphia 76ers.
This is the tale of 2 under performing teams with L.A. holding the better record. As with losing teams they try to float above water at home and struggle on the road. Clippers are playing better of late SU, but ATS is fairly close. Schedule is also similar with both teams coming in on 3 games in 4 days on back end of back to back. So you look closer to the first game of back to back where Clippers came out hot against the Knicks in MSG than faded away in the second half. 76ers trailed the Celtics and came back in the 2nd half. You take the 2nd half winner 76ers at home on a short line.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS -2.5(L)

Damn! Had 2nd half momentum and could not close the deal. OT on home court? Come on Sixers you break my heart.

NBA Thursday

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat.

Hope everyone is doing well. This game will feature a contender from South East, Orlando Magic (19-6) deadly away as home makes no difference. Magic strung 5 game winning streak and 6 game winning streak, currently on 2 wins in a row, making this stretch 13-3 since Nov. 13th. Coming off a dominant game win against Raptors at home Magic goes for 7 wins out of 8 trips to Miami. This has to be a tall order for Miami Heat. They did win last game at home against Raptors, but they are 4 losses out of last 5 home games. Heat also beat Magic in last match, but Magic are good revenge team and good back to back team. Yet I am incline to take Miami Heat at home. ATS 15-10 is good money making record, but not as threatening as 19-6 and this sequence bring Magic to 3 games in 4 days. Orlando Magic is no doubt the public play and offshore has been holding that line, but starting to inflate.

MIAMI HEAT +4.5(W)

News flash! Miami Heat blows out Orlando Magic! Who could of guess it?!

NBA Wednesday

Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks.
Koby and Lakers impressing you? World Champs going for repeat? Maybe. They right the ship taking out the weak Bulls in Chicago. Yeah, but they didn't cover. It's a simple plan I'm going against them on the road. Lakers on double set of back to backs coming up tonight on second leg of second set. Bucks at home 8-4 ATS and they are on a mini roll. Lakers away 1-5 ATS on 3 game straight no cover. Just rolling with it.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS +6(W)

Good game Koby, but Bucks take the money!

NBA Tuesday

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
Tonight's gonna be a good night and both of these teams should be ready for a game after their tough schedule sequence. Suns did a double back to back with 2 days between, but first sequence was 3 games in 4 days which they promptly lost the first sequence of back to back and though rested for Sacramento they were killed by L.A. in the second of back to back.
Dallas coming off 3 games in 4 days sequence also lost the back to back. On their second game Mavs only attempted 67 shots and out done in the paint 34 to 10.
Now it's the bounce back game and the Total is seemingly high. BookMaker opened at 215.5 dropped a point, where many lines hold, and shaved another 0.5 to 214. I do admit the opening total I expected was 213 and was surprised by the high number, but plus minus 2 points is still in range. The total is dropping and priced UNDER, but this number is still 2nd highest seen in Dallas games and Mavericks going UNDER on all games this season above 203.5 maybe makes you uneasy or Phoenix last OVER game was 7 games ago makes you nervous. It's the perception shared by the wagering public, but both good teams coming off such dismal scoring and had time to soak it in come meet in this match up.

OVER 214(L)

That was a loser, but I will return.

NBA Sunday

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers.
Here comes the Suns after a on road back to back loss they are back on track taking out Sacramento shooting 115 points. Back on track ready to hand Lakers their 4th loss if not their 11th ATS loss. Phoenix getting 9.5 their second most points received 15-5 team on a revenge spot has to be intriguing. Offense is back scoring triple digits and Lakers looked like they were slipping against Miami. Would this be a good spot even on a back to back? Favorite with double digit spread no cover on second sequence giving up double digits should be faded, true, but when looking at Lakers SU win at home on a circus shot by Koby I consider that a loss and Suns are not a good back to back team or a revenge play team. Books have also kept this just below the double digit number handing a 9.5 which has been holding.
I take the refocused Lakers. In the paint baby.

LAKERS -9.5 at +108 for 1 unit(W)

Too much Lakers for Suns on back to back

NBA Friday

Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz
Jazz men last played on 11/30 scoring 120 and holding Memphis to 93 points. It was one of their best shooting game at 58%, but they also shot 60% before that and nearly 61% before that. The last 3 games have really inflated their FG% and the Total. Jazz shoot well I agree and their Over is 7 out of last 10, but rising score has peaked. Narrowing spread indicating opening number to be inflated by smart money. Pacers offense should yield below 100 today in Salt Lake city the concern should be points allowed which has exceeded 100 points 8 out of last 10, out of the 8 it has hit above 109 five times, but I think below 109 is more likely according to ATS movement. Go against the rising number.

UNDER 210.5(W)

NBA Thursday

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors.
242, 233, 227, 222, 214, 212, 204, this is the sequence of Warriors last 7 games coming to a peak. Last indicator noted on 11/14 @MIL 264 before dropping down 2 games in a row. The Warriors have been on Over trend 7 out of last 10 and this match up with Houston has track record for going Over. However this game calls for Under. 187, 191, 176, 239, 219, 208, 181, 216, 192, 209 Rockets last 10 game totals are classic hi-low sequence coming up on hi game, but considering the differential between games and this match following a peak total by Warriors will not make 221. This one looks to top out below 218.

UNDER 221 -110 for 1 unit(W)

So I missed the Total by 2 points. Good thing I had a 3 point cushion.
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Sunday

Minnesota Timber wolves at Denver Nuggets
Everyone knows this is a bottom team against elite team match that opened at -16 for home team. Needless to say expected blow out. But you should be aware of dropping line and not so impressive Denver ATS. This match up also comes up on interesting sequence of Nuggets SU win NO COVER against NYK at home. Fading double digit favorite after a No Cover is not a bad idea. Wolves last game was a double digit blow out loss against PHO which should be a motivation on this game. Big loss at POR back in 11/11 inspired following game at DAL, ATS loss by only -1.5 and 11/21 loss followed by ATS COVER at LAC.
How about a Minnesota back door COVER.

TIMBER WOLVES +14.5(W)

No back door. How about a SU win going away. Yeah, I'm a bad man.

NBA Wednesday

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers.
This match up regardless of home court has trended UNDER for a long time. Some might consider it nature of this match up. However the odds makers have raised the bar to 183.5 a number not seen between these two teams since 190 high mark on 11/19/2008 that's 7 match ups ago. New era basketball and I'm going to buck this trend today. The low end Total below 190's are going OVER and Cavs have scored 100+ 4 out of last 5 road games. Detroit very capable of putting up 90's and I'll take the OVER.

OVER 184(W)

The UNDER nature is still there, but not this low.

NBA Saturday

Points will cost premium.
My theme tonight for Detroit at Washington. Needless to say Saunder's first match up against Detroit since being let go will play a role. However the "Insiders" knowledge will not stand against the loss of 3 point guards. arenas playing with calf injury and Randy Foye sprained right ankle will be a game time decision. Detroit was able to dominate the Bobcats in last game, but considering the changes in these teams I'm not sure if Pistons will show their cohesiveness on the road. The nature of this game going Over in Washington has changed and you should not be deterred by the low number. My pick here is the Under 186.

UNDER 186 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Thursday

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers.
Wolrd Champion Lakers will take on the hot streaking Suns. I'm not sure if Suns will keep it on overdrive, but getting 8 points will get some backers. But 8 points have some meaning behind it like 7 games in 10 days or 4 in 5. That means too much Lakers at Staples Center

LAKEERS -8 at -104 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00

NBA Monday

Minnesota T-Wolves at Golden State Warriors.
Keep in mind Wolves and Warriors coming off double digit losing margin. Minnesota's second game giving up triple-teens plus this season. Warriors has not held any opponents below 100 and last game in Sacramento giving up 120 in regulation. That was the second most this season.
Assertion here is defensive number to improve and the rising total to be too lofty.

MIN/GSW UNDER 215 at -109 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.09 units

NBA Thursday

Spurs at Jazz. There's a sinking feeling in Salt Lake City and the wagering public can feel it. You know the play on San Antonio and Jazz has narrowed and in this situation you take the slumping home team.

UTAH JAZZ +1(W)

Finally a slam dunk!

NBA Tuesday

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks.
This is a interesting match up with Dallas returning home after the stint with the two teams in L.A. Winning both and brimming with confidence. Meanwhile Jazz upset at home against the new look Houston. Also dropped the opener at Denver with the lone win coming against the Clipper. Although Mavs giving -6.5 points seems well in range for Mavs coming to form, but Jazz at this point is very dangerous. The blow from Houston at home is equal to a wake up call. My take is the Jazz to cover in Dallas.

UTAH JAZZ +6.5(L)

Late game Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trailblazers.
Seemingly low total looks awfully suspicious, but Hawks poised to put up score which will likely be matched by the home Blazers. That looks Over to me.

ATL/POR OVER 192(L)

Off to a bad start. It'll turn around.

NBA 2009 ~ 2010 Bring on the Games

Let's get into. This is my first publishing for this season. I'm not doing season outlook or future plays. Not the first NBA wager, but here's one I'm putting on blog take on Lakers and Clippers match up at Staples Center in Los Angeles. Clips are playing healthy, well Griffin is out, and the number has been dropping since open. It's gone low as 200.5 and though the dip is likely this total is reachable.

OVER 201.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

Was not close, but long season to go 0-1 -1.10 units

NBA Finals Game II

MAGIC vs LAKERS
Lakers line on the move coming closer to game time and though -7 seems a bit much to a embarrassed Orlando team I will focus on Total for tonight. With edge to the Under and NBA Final scenario puts this at 202 which seems to be getting small money edge. I have seen the Under being touted everywhere and the trend screams out. I'm going to buck this trend and take the Over. This very suspicious Total has reverse outcome written all over and this number goes Over.

OVER 202 +101 for 1 unit(L)

Not a good idea to buck the trend, but I know this one had the Under backers sweating.
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA PLAYOFF CAVALIERS vs MAGIC

This game is a game where public persuasion has gone from Cleveland to Orlando. It's like you should of known all along of course Magic has the closers, Cavs don't match up well against Magic, Magics has Cavs number and had it all season long. Magic may have dropped the ball in Cleveland at the Q, but now their on their home court.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS +2 at +107 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA PLAYOFF LAKERS vs NUGGETS

Would you believe I had Cleveland -7.5 and OVER 191? Sweeping ATS and Total for Thursday? It just doesn't work when you don't have it published in a timely fashion. Hopefully I'm still see the right path. Everybody see the same game, but results from one game to the next is judged differently. Why? Because many are easily influenced by what occurred and what they heard from the announcers. Yes, Denver is playing good ball beyond where any media would have predicted. Yes, they are back at Pepsi with their back against the wall. Yes, Lakers have played half hearted games very capable of blowing it big. All true, Taking Lakers at the Moneyline.

LOS ANGELES +200 for 2 units(W)

Lakers baby 1-0 +4.00 units

NBA PLAYOFFS

Got miles to go before I sleep. No matter day or night, early or late, regardless of your life the game goes on. A wise man once told me never risk on a game based on match up, but base it on situation. Yes the first game was a surprise at the "Q", but giving up -9 does not justify against a team they have not covered all season. The other angle is the scoring will come down, if you agree the question is...from 213 will it come down below 188.5? that's 24.5 points less than where the game landed last time. The total set for the match is low with majority consensus on the Over. Line has moved very little perhaps still drawing the over, but the sharps have moved to the other side keeping the number at bay.

ORLANDO MAGIC +9(W)
TOTAL UNDER 188.5(L)

LBJ burns my UNDER with a miracle 3 point shot with a second left on the clock. Damn! on the cusp of sweeping side and total.

NBA Playoff Thursday

Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2

Cavaliers at home are giving up -12.5 which is little more than 9.5 margin of wins and Hawks have shown ability to come back from big losses, but Cavs on a roll with killer instincts at home. I'll look for strong defensive showing once again to take this game again decisively.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -12.5 at -102 for 1 unit(W)

CLEVELAND/ATLANTA UNDER 89 FIRST HALF at -104 for 1 unit(L)

1-1 -0.04 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 31-34-1 +2.79 units

Uncanny Over implications for Utah and Denver at Pepsi Center. Jazz coming off a 21 point loss (15 ATS loss) at Portland in a crucial game. Easily eclipsed the 192 Total by 37 points. For Utah to give up 125 points on the road may seem out of the norm, but -118 in Phoenix, -94 in Oklahoma, -105 in Orlando and so on. This spot does call for better defensive number still the likelihood of exceeding triple digits are high. Denver has been over anticipated in exceeding the Total and the line makers are doing a very good job. They are confident with number close to what they set on March 6th in Utah. There are also 4 consecutive Unders recorded with one game in Denver. So despite expected decline from 229 for Jazz and Nuggets at neutral I will go with the Over 208.

UTA/DEN OVER 208 at +101 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.01 units

NBA Sunday

YTD 30-34-1 +1.78 units

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets

As the picture comes together in NBA and people continue to eye Cleveland, Los Angeles, Orlando... The aging team from South West will quietly stalk the top contenders. Spurs has strung 3 straight wins in a row. Coming into this game scoring 111 against the Clippers topping 100+ points in 3 wins. The 4th win for this team has been elusive at 6-12, but fundamentally their key Big Three are playing and road wins come 22-13. Hornets dropped 2 and missing Peja, Posey, Chandler they have not scored over 100+ since 3/11. Hornets 4-12 as underdog, 2-7 against winning teams in 2nd half of season.

SAN ANTONIO -1.5 -107 for 1 unit(L)

Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons
Understanding the implications for the Total to fall below is bit of a miss calculation at 184.5? I do see Detroit moving the pace increasing output and 76er should simulate the faster tempo. Maybe come closer to 200 point total.

OVER 184.5 at +100 for 1 unit(w)

Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers
Wizards on a back to back with Pacers road game. Agent Zero making his first game back is expected out on the second of back to back, but they looked confident as a team. A team that can score.

OVER 207 at -104 for 1 unit(W)

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
Have not published this play in a while, but this game has over +75% public on Road favorite Suns. The public play is to be faded or pass and I will take a position with late line move.

Kings +6 at +101 for 1 unit(W)

3-1 +1.94 units

NBA Saturday

YTD 28-33-1 -0.16 units

New York Knicks at Charlotte Bobcats.
This is the match up of great ATS teams. Forget their record look at what happens with the spread, NYK 41-30 & Cats 43-29. Cats are pretty good at home 20-17, 22-15 ATS, but outstanding 12-3 second half season against teams with losing record. Considering the risk Knicks are very good on the road 21-12 ATS and 7-2 getting 7 points on the road. With two good ATS teams playing taking the points make sense.

NEW YORK KNICKS +7 at -106 for 1 unit(L)

Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trailblazers
I really don't see Memphis covering at the Garden, but I'm going back to crunching the scoring Total. For all concerned this should be a scoring drop for both team and it should be tough reaching in the 180's.

MEM/POR UNDER 190 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz
Another game that will not reach. Jazz might drop this one at home, but defense and low post plays will be the key.

PHO/UTA UNDER 230 at +101 for 1 unit(W)

2-1 +1.94 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 28-32-1 +0.86 units

Today the line has swung widely towards the Lakers (56-14) best in the west. They are on a long road trip, but they are winning. Tonight at Detroit the Pistons are hurting and hurting they will play. It's always dangerous to underestimate your NBA opponent, but it's hard to think these Pistons have any chance or even cover. I will take the Over in this spot as offensive increase looks likely.
Even if Lakers defense limits Pistons I like the chance of Lakers offense making up the difference.

LAKERS/PISTONS OVER 193.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.02 units

NBA Monday

YTD 27-31-1 +0.82 units

Miami taking out Detroit at the Palace +7 underdog taking it SU going away. Heat at 100% just about had everyone in double figures and scored into triple figures. Miami looking good, aren't they? Memphis Grizzlies up next at home, Memphis losers of 4 in a row 1-3 ATS. They allowed triple digits to opponents 3 out of last 4. Looking very much like a no brain er. The problem with fading this 5-28 road team is they have covered 10 out of 28 road losses giving them 15-18 ATS record. In opposite Miami is very mediocre 16-19 home ATS. Miami playing 2nd of back to back with Wade coming off a 39 point output may get some breather here with B team getting added minutes. Also like the rising number. Keep in mind Grizzlies are playing improved ball in second half and they were embarrassed by Boston.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +9 at +105 for 1 unit(L)

A rare second game for late night action at the Valley of the Suns.
I know everyone loves the Suns at home and they are destroying their opponents, but Denver getting points here is just too tempting. Take it for what it is, a tightly contested match up, and I'll take the points on all these types of game.

DENVER NUGGETS +3.5 at +104 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.04 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 26-31-1 -0.18 units

Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks. This game has it's advantages in the Total where Mavs have compiled O/U 33-35 which is Road O/U 13-22. Hawks are O/U 16-21 as favorites 1-6 against Southwest 7-17 in non-conference game. All coming together after both teams played Over and recent game patterns suggest a drop in production.

DAL/ATL UNDER 196.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Wednesday

YTD 25-31-1 -1.27 units

NJ Nets at NY Knicks is the game that stuck out immediately. It was +7 for visiting Nets with money slightly more on Nets, but holding steady. The last game was NJ -5 which PUSHED and 3 previous meeting was 7 ~ 7.5 and NY has taken 4 out of last 6 with 1 push to direct this selection little further NJ comes to MSG logging 4 straight losses SU & ATS last one at Denver was 25 point blow out loss while NY comes winner of 4 straight ATS & 3 out of 4 SU bringing both teams back to the circle the same match up that took place 3/08 in New Jersey 101-106 loss for NY and ATS PUSH. So two teams that went in different direction meet again. Knicks have been playing well and given the balance better matched, but Nets haves managed to work the paint against these Knicks and compensated the lower FG%. NJ is much better road ATS team and NY similary good on the road, but not giving points at home. Taking the points and visiting Nets.

NJ NETS +7 at +109 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.09 units

NBA Saturday

YTD 24-31-1 -2.27 units

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
Going against the tired home team and taking San Antonio with points

SPURS +2.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Friday

YTD 24-30-1 -1.20 units

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors.
Dirk Nowitzki is putting the Mavs on his shoulders. Can the Big German haul this team through the Western swing? They have the momentum, but Warriors have their weapons back with Monta Ellis back in action.
There is an offensive expectation at O/U 224 which is reachable in a sense Dallas has exceeded +200 total 4 straight out of last 10 games and total doesn't go below 200 for the Warriors, but went Over in last 2 games both totals in 220's
I'm going against the Over and look for Dirk to keep it steady at the post.

DAL/GSW UNDER 224 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.07 units

NBA Saturday

YTD 24-29-1 -0.20 units

Orlando at Philadelphia
Powerful Magic team comes to town and line makers have this just about tight as you can put the Sixers at +1.5 slight home dogs. You figure the books are thinking Sixers have a good chance to beat the Magic outright at home.
I agree.

76ers +1.5 +100 for 1 unit(L)

Couldn't hold that lead!
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Tuesday

YTD 23-29-1 -1.28 units

Hello gang. Today I will follow Denver into Miami in what looks to be a tight contest. Miami Heat is D Wade & company which can hold their own especially in their home floor, but this Nuggets team is moving without much notice and they look the most dangerous. Denver Nuggets to take this away would not surprise me.

NUGGETS -1.5 at +108 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.08 units

NBA Monday

YTD 23-28-1 -0.23 units

Clippers at Bobcats.
What can you say about a team with it's flagship radio station, 710 ESPN, dumping them in the middle of their season. ESPN is promoting the Lakers coming next season. Marred with injuries there's not much fight in the "Play it Loud" campaign, but return of Randolph has been a impact. Sure the raining 3's are a bit of anomaly, but Randolphs inside threat gives the shooters open looks. Yes, this game is winnable for the home team who are thirsting for one and they have beat the Clippers before, but Gordon and Throton has grown with the battles and Randolph's making it interesting.

Clippers +2.5 for -105 for 1 unit(L)

What a no-show for B.Davis!
0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Tuesday

YTD 20-27-1 -2.25 units

Milwaukee Bucks at New Jersey Nets.
Like the Bucks getting points and keeping it close

MIL. BUCKS +4.5 at -105 units(L)
BUCKS/NETS UNDER 196 at 100 for 1 unit(W)

Toronto at Cleveland
Going against my underdog nature.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -10 at 103 for 1 unit(W)

BOSTON/76ERS OVER 191 at +102 for 1 unit(W)




3-1 +2.02 units

NBA Monday

YTD 19-27-1 -3.25 units

Looking to stop the slide tonight with L.A. Clippers at Miami Heat.
Haven't put this play down on blog, but its something I've been following for awhile and I'm riding the game Over.

CLIPPERS & HEAT OVER 191.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

Yeah it takes a total play to stop the slide.
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Saturday

YTD 18-26-1 -3.27 units

Somethings got to give with this continuing run of losers.
Utah Jazz at Portland Trailblazer.
I'm sure Blazers -9.5 suggests Jazz as the play for cover and normally I would invert the suggestions, but there has been too many of these.

UTAH JAZZ +9.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

This game total looks too high, but it's deceiving
NYK/IND OVER 226 at +107 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.02 units

NBA Friday

YTD 18-25-1 -2.27 units

Last game on board tonight. I know Kings at Arco doesn't come close to the fortress it once was and Bulls are licking their chops to take the Kings down on their home court. Very likely scenario to break Bulls out of their norm and that's the public play. The line has reversed since opening which is always a precursor to a upset.

SACRAMENTO KINGS ML +100 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Thursday

YTD 18-24-1 -1.22 units

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns.

In the valley of the Suns Spurs roll in on the Rodeo road trip. You know the story of this annual bonding event for the San Antonio group, but taking out the Jazz and coming here on second of back to back Spurs are a marked team.

SUNS -1.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Wednesday

YTD 18-23-1 -0.22 units

Bulls at Clippers Second Half.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +0.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)

Not feeling it.
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Tuesday

YTD 18-21-1 +1.83 units

Charlotte Bobcats at Los Angeles Lakers.Look for Lakers out of the gate. Not much for motavation, but L.A. to set the tone early.

L.A. LAKERS FIRST HALF -6.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)

Taking more of the same.

L.A. LAKERS SECOND HALF -7.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.05 units

NBA Monday

YTD 18-20-1 +2.90 units

New Jersey Nets at Oklahoma Thunder.
Nets end their 5 game losing skid at Grizzlies expense and comes to Oklahoma to meet up with the bottom dweller Thunder. First thought with these Nets taking the road on Jan. 21 played 3 games in 4 days, improving 3 games, than takes a breather and back on on Monday. Looking like a downer on Monday against the Thunder? Could happen, Oakies are playing much better as of late. Odds makers think so too with home team favored -3.5 points, but Thunders decline is immanent. It maybe already happening coming into this game. I'm taking the points.

NETS +3.5 at -107 for 1 unit(L)

Got in early before the line move, but it was still the wrong side.

0-1 -1.07 units

NBA Sunday

YTD 17-20-1 +1.90 units

Dallas at Boston.
Times have changed and so have these two teams, Dallas owns 16-6 record with 7-4 in Boston against the C's running far back to 96'. This season does not reflect that track record Boston back on track and Mavs are still searching to make a run. Dallas dropped the last 5 out of 6 meetings against Cs, but they were 6 points or less differential in 4 out of last 5 meet within range of generous +9.5 in any body's house. However this game looks to expose the growth of gap between these two teams. Boston Celtics double digit wins goes back 5 games in a row and this game should have higher offensive number than last one against Orlando.

BOSTON -9 at -106 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Sunday

YTD 16-20-1 -0.10 units

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers are sliding, but I'm not here to advise a fade or a home dog play.
Playing the TOTAL points also known as OVER/UNDER.
Current number as of this writing stands at 201.5 dropping from opening 202.
Relatively low number from Suns perspective and high for short handed Clippers.
These two matched up 1/02/2009 at Phoenix with 199 Total which was eclipsed 106-98, that was the second game of 6 consecutive OVERS for LAC.
Not that consecutive Overs have much weight considering the odds makers have not been far off, but Clippers are capable of scoring in the 70s with opponent dropping triple digits and still going Under anytime. So I'm looking at the line with latter scenario to to drive down the number a bit more. This angle gauging the high and low range of scoring rates Suns coming off a peak scoring. I think Suns are likely not going to exceed what they scored last game, 128, but good chance to hit into triple digits and Clips coming off close or at bottom scoring is likely to improve from 80 points. Will it be enough? That's the question. I think the key is Clippers scoring and their 2 past clunker games they just ran out of gas. Look for recharged Clips and jubilant Suns to push this score Over

OVER 201.5 at -105 for 2 units (W)

NBA Thursday

YTD 15-20-1 -2.10 units

To say Clippers are raising their level of play may sound sarcastic with 8-26 record, but 16-18 ATS puts them on equal footing with 16-17-1 ATS San Antonio Spurs. Clippers recent 4-1 last 5 comes in with 3 road ATS wins while Spurs with 8-2 last 10 SU are 2-3 last 5 ATS and giving double digit point spread at home has failed last 2 tries, 3 times if you count -9.5 to 76ers, last 4 situations is 2-1-1 so Clippers playing tight may not be such a fantasy. However you have to feel something out of norm when Eric Gordon is putting in 32 points followed by Al Thornton's 25 against Dallas at home, Gordon's second 30 plus point game in a row with 31 against Pistons, playing well beyond expectation with most of their main players hurt. This game looks to expose how hurt this Clippers team really is.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -12.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)