Thursday, November 30, 2006

NBA Thursday

We have two games today with broadcast on TNT.

Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat.
These two teams trend Under and that trend should jump out. But when trends appear so obvious buyer beware.
Piston Under 11-2 last 13 road games, Under 12-3 last 15 against SE, Heat Under 6-2 last 8 home games. Under 8-0 head to head.
I looked at that and threw it out the window, this is the first meeting this season. Shaq is out, Big Ben is no longer a Piston then look at the current scoring. Pistons offensive score and defensive allowed has been surging last 4 games. Miami has scored 100+ or allowed 100+ last 5 out of 5 games with one of the game (Loss 104-107 home 11/24 ORL) both teams in triple digits.
Pistons are rested arrived Miami yesterday I look for them to be on the attack.
Miami will key in on driving the lane and Dwayne will be behind the wheel.

DET/MIA Over 191 at -118 for 2 units(L) (buy -1 point)
DET/MIA OVER 95 First Half -105 for 1 unit(L)
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Second game Jazz at Lakers.
Lakers are coming off an embarrassing loss to Michael Redd and the Bucks. Redd has his way that night and you know Koby was on his watch. Koby down played it, but good bounce back spot at home against very good Jazz. Utah is playing solid ball on a tight schedule and Spurs are likely to give them a bit of hangover on this second of back to back.

LAL -4 at -109 for 2 units(W)
1-2 -1.41 units

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

NBA Wednesday

I'll try to add some light to this pick for tomorrow.

The line has gone against me now stands at 187 rounding off the 0.5 points for team total Pinny has set 92 for Cats and 96 for Hawks 188 or exact number at 187. Atlanta team total of 95.5 is sided to Under at -112 and Bobcats team total 91.5 is neutral on both O/U at -108. Atlanta with (5 out of last 6) going Under, lowest set number was 188 the lone Over. Bobcats have faired better (3 out of last 6) going Over, most recent 3 games all going Over and the books have been way off on the number, lowest set number was 184.5 going Over. Both teams playing 2nd leg of back to back Hawks interior has been pretty good and Cats players are balanced in their scoring. The book has hung a number for both teams to score in the 90+'s which they have done 4 out of 5 for the Cats & 3 out of 5 for the Hawks, allowed 90+'s 4 out of 5 for Cats & 4 out of 5 (5 for 5 with OT) for Hawks.
Bobcats at Hawks Over 188 at -118 for 2 units(W)
Adding:
CHA/ATL Over 186.5 at -112 for 2 units(W)
CHA Over 91.5 at -108 for 1 unit(L)
Can not believe I missed Cats team total there was more than enough time to get one more basket. Oh well that's the game.
2-1 +3.92 units

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

NBA Tuesday

Recovering from the holiday. I will go with 2 half plays.

T-Wolves at Rocket is already under way. Minny is on the second of back to back, but looks like they will be gunning for the Rockets today. With Houston trying to solve their second half game Wolves are a likely play. I want to see marginal lead by Rockets to take the Wolves 2nd half.

Sorry missed the window for 2nd half play.

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Clips at Kings might be a turn around game for LAC, but with consistent slow starts I will back Sacramento in the 1st Half.

SAC -3 First Half +102 for 1 unit(L)
Should of known the one I miss was the winning play
0-1 -1.00 unit

Saturday, November 25, 2006

NBA Saturday

I'm putting this one in early.
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors both teams on 2nd of back to back coming off respective high scoring games. It's usually wise to look for the points to drop in this spot.

UTA/GSW Under 214.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

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My first selection has moved to 215.5 at -105 so it's a better take now than it was early morning. I might take additional unit, but that'll wait closer to game time.

Play on 1st quarter Clippers at Minnesota. LAC 1st quarter fade has been money.

MIN +1 First Quarter at -110 for 1 unit(L)
I did add 2 units on the inflated number at 216, but couldn't get online so the record will lose the juice for Saturday.
1-1 -0.10 units

Friday, November 24, 2006

NBA Friday...Am I too late tonight

Never say it's over till it's over.
West coast late games have begun so I'll be on the prowl for 2nd half play.
Stay tuned as I will be tracking Nets at Suns. See how the wind blows.

As of the end of 1st quarter Suns are shooting lights out above 80% from the field, filling the 3 point shots and out boarding the Nets on the 2nd of back to back. I don't think Suns can keep this pace, but recent NJ pattern has been to fade away in the 2nd half. The 1st Half total at 50.5 was taken Over by Phoenix single handedly. Amare looks very impressive so far taking over the inside.

Not quite mid way 2nd quarter scoring has slowed with Nash and Stoudemire sitting, but Nets defense looks better. Similar to Suns against the Hornets in Phoenix's last game. If Nets are going to have a chance they'll need to stop Phoenix more than pushing their score.

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The Nets are playing their game, but it's far from being a winner. That doesn't mean they can't take the 2nd Half. Money is siding with Phoenix and maybe rightly so I'll roll with the NJN to bring it closer to about an 10 point game.

NJN 2nd Half -2.5 at +108 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.08 units
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Not sure if I'll be able to get online for Saturday or Sunday I will try, but if not good luck on the weekend games.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

NBA Wednesday

I'm back after many many miles of travel. Spent more time in the air than ground. It's not over yet I'll be in Mid-West for Thanksgiving, oh what fun I'll be packed like sardines on the busiest flight day in the United States.

I hope to channel all this fun I'm about to have on the book that took my pick on Sunday.

Do not fear Pacers domination of Magic. Indy coming off incredible 4th quarter surge to take the 1st leg of back to back 93-88 win against Bucks at home. 2nd leg of back to back Magic is tough as nails at home.

ORL -2 First Quarter -105 for 2 units(L)
ORL -3.5 First Half -105 for 2 units(L)
ORL -5.5 at -102 for 3 units(L)
Oh Magic!
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Like the Hornets this year, can you tell?, Liked the Suns last year not as much this year. I think Nash is still the best distributor in this league. Lines moved up some, but still like the score to go high today.

NO/PHO Over 208 at -107 for 2 units(L)
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Like Toronto this year too. Cleveland in Toronto has Raptors number, but I think Raps are a Sharp play with two possession ATS.

TOR +3.5 *buy 0.5 at -111 for 2 units(W)
Should of played Raptors across the board.
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Late game addition:

I'm fading Clips at home on 2nd of back to back with a 1st quarter twist.
Clips have not led at the end of first quarter on majority of their game.

SEA +1.5 First Quarter -105 for 2 units(W)
SEA +6 at -113 for 2 units(W)
SEA ML +220 for 1 unit(W)

Plays are fair to poor right now. Going back to narrower plays.
4-4 -1.20 units

Saturday, November 18, 2006

NBA Saturday

Losing with Mavs in the first half on a game they surged to take ATS in the 4th quarter is more than disappointing. It was the smallest of hunch not taking the full game and I out smarted myself to a loss.

I'm getting ready to fly back East this weekend, but wanted to get this pick in.

Houston at Detroit.
Pistons are coming off a win against Washington in what looks like a loss on paper. Detroit lost in the paint, field goal percentage, rebounding, fast break and won the game. Now they have always played Rockets tough, but 2nd leg of back to back with Piston's inside game looking shaky Houston should adjust to putting teams away in late game. Rockets to dominate the glass and take the road win.

HOU PK at -106 for 3 units(L)
Rockets still can't close games losing the 2nd half.
0-1 -3.00 units

Friday, November 17, 2006

NBA Friday

Dallas at Memphis.
This will most likely be a public play and that's the only reason I'm shy about.
Again trusting the First Half play according to the stronger team.

DAL -2.5 First Half at -105 for 2 units(L)

Thursday, November 16, 2006

NBA Thursday

Backing rested and determined Yaozer, T-Mac and company, but Bulls are not easy inside. Today's spread looks tough to beat. Taking the first half.

HOU -2.5 Fist Half at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

NBA Wednesday

Will play the back to back Denver at Orlando. Catching Nuggets at the tail end of their East Coast swing.

ORL -3 at -112 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Tuesday

Selection for today I like the Hornets at home taking on the Bobcats. Other than Okafor Cats are playing bad ball. Both teams are coming off 3 game losses each, but definately Hornets are playing better quality ball. Hornets lose West today, but expect Peja Stojakovic and Desmond Mason to step up a bit.
Hornets to get a jump in the early going.

NO/OK Hornets -4 First Half -112 for 2 units(L)

Hornets finished the game covering -7 and missed the half by 2 point to win.
0-1 -2.24 units

Saturday, November 11, 2006

NBA Sunday

I see the players are on Houston against Miami tomorrow. Rockets do match up well and their inside game is working. Keep an eye on that game, but I'm not pulling the trigger yet.

Hornets will be in town playing the Clippers, maybe I'll go see that game, and I guess there was no reason not to stay on the back to back team fade as Portland climbed back to take out the Hornets or should I say Zach Randolph beat the Hornets. Coach Scott said the team will look back this loss and kick themselves in March. Now the Hornets are already back in Los Angeles getting ready for the Clippers. Los Angeles will have the front court advantage and should dominate the paint, but they will be surprised by Hornets low post led by Tyson Chandler and how well he creates second chance scoring. I think the Hornets are good with +6.5, but where they really excel is in the opening rounds, the First Quarter, and the Clippers have fell behind in the opening quarter in every single game so far this season.
Keep watch on the quarter play it should be at least +1.5 and will be good to go.

First Quarter Scoring Log:
Dates: Hornets
11/01 16-26 @BOS(+10 pts)
11/03 20-26 @IND(+6 pts)
11/05 15-26 HOU(+11 pts)
11/07 17-29 GSW(+12 pts)
11/09 35-34 @GSW(+1 pts)
11/10 38-13 @POR(+25 pts)
Date: Clippers
11/01 20-24 @PHO(-4 pts)
11/02 24-18 DEN(-6 pts)
11/04 26-20 PHO(-6 pts)
11/06 22-20 POR(-2 pts)
11/08 32-21 DAL(-11 pts)

HOR +1.5 First Quarter at -106 for 1 unit(L)
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NJ Nets at Washington Wizards. This game total opened around 203.5 and has been dropping since mid night eastern. I look at the number on Washington game and they have sailed Over not even close with the exception of the opener in Cleveland. Richard Jefferson is out with sprained ankle out indefinately. I would classify Nets as an Under team and prefer to keep the scoring in check, but will take the opportunity when their players are open and hot. For the game I agree with the decline of Total both teams allowing too many points to their respective last opponents. So coming into this game both teams should be focused on not allowing the easy shots in the paint and careful on the turn overs, but the game number is not of interest to me. What I see is the spiked number for the first quarter for both teams and by reading this total should open at 51. Nets are averaging 27 points while Wizards are averaging 33 points I'll look to take the First Quarter Over.

NJN/WAS Over 48.5 First Quarter at -120 for 1 unit(L)

These plays are not dropping in. Back to the drawing boards.
0-2 -2.26 units

Friday, November 10, 2006

NBA Saturday

I'm looking to mix the short games for Saturday. The target selections are Jazz, Magic and Suns for the 1st Quarter.

For the over night line I've taken the Bulls against the back to back Pacers.
The line moved up to -5 since and if it keeps moving I may go for the middle.
For now Bulls are in play.

CHI -4 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Yeah the line's moving. Now Pacers can be had for +7.5 on the buy and this game will be a play on the MIDDLE.

IND +7.5 at -118 for 1 unit(L)
CHI -2 First Quarter at -109 for 1 unit(L)

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The short game will be on the Suns. D'Antoni ripped his team for playing soft I'll look for Phoenix to come out hot.

PHO -3 First Quarter at -105 for 2 units(L)
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The middle was very close, but the day is going down the sink.
I'll add last game 2nd Half.

DET/GSW Under 99 at -108 for 2 units(L)
Wow, last shot killed it. Not feeling the games see if I can bounce back tomorrow.

1-4 -5.53 units

Thursday, November 09, 2006

NBA Friday

Just looking over tomorrow and saw NYK/HOU Under 196.5 at -109 which is a luring Under most likely to drop lower. But before you take the early line remember that stretch of Knicks Over last season. Rockets are suspect for Over as well with T-Mac warming up to the games. No selection yet.

Early play on the over night line is Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics.
The selection is

UTA/BOS Under 199 at -105 for 2 units(L)
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Adding couple of short plays for the two late west coast games.
First I'm laying off the Portland play. Like the Hornets energy and this team feels different in the early going.
NO/OK HORNTETS -1 First Quarter -105 for 1 unit(W)

Second Detroit at Los Angeles Lakers. Detroit is having problems, but expect some urgency on their offense. Lakers 1st Quarter scoring has been amazing.

DET/LAL First Quarter Over 49 at -108 for 1 unit(L)
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Second Half Detroit at Lakers.

DET +5 Second Half at +107 for 1 unit(W)

Feeling little preoccupied and it did not help with Sportsline posting wrong scores. Be back later for Saturday games.
2-2 -1.18 units

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

NBA Thursday

Small card for Thursday. Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers has posted a luring Over total at 182 which has been on the move anywhere from 182.5 to 184. On the surface the number is very low, but consider the depth, all the option Bulls have to slow LBJ, how tough the low post will be and in conclusion points will not come cheap. This is what I played on the overnight. Line might move higher maybe weaken and retreat, but my thought here is Under. Both teams are coming off an high scoring games. Chicago is showing flashes of dominance, but Cavs own their home court. I expect this to unfold low and tight.

CHI/CLE UNDER 185.5 at -119 for 1 unit
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Adding Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns.
Both teams are playing the 2nd leg of back to back. Suns have played a draining match against the Spurs with OT in a game they should of won with one more free throw. Not only that they have Steve Nash hurt and Raja Bell out for today. The books are not adjusting they are raising the stock for tonight, maybe the fade is on the Mavs. Totals have come down accordingly, but sides still suggest Suns win. I'll go against that theory.

DAL +5 at +100 for 1 unit

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

NBA Wednesday

No need to take this early the line should improve a bit.
Go against Lakers on the 2nd of back to back against the Blazers. Current line is POR +4.5 and Total is 199 Under looks good too. If you want to grab the overnight line take the Under.

LAL/POR UNDER 199 at -110 for 2 units(W)
POR +1.5 First Quarter +101 for 1 unit(W)
POR +2.5 First Half +107 for 1 unit(W)
POR +5.5 -111 for 2 units(W)
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Although I don't have strong loyalty to particular NBA team, if I had to pick I go with the LA teams, but I would have to say Dallas has been my regular season strong suit. The Mavs have stalled in the early going and sometimes that can be a good thing. Like getting value pricing in Los Angeles. Mavs are in a spot to make a statement.

DAL ML +137 for 1 unit(L)
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This will be a good game to watch Suns at Spurs. Let me see if the Totals can catch a winner.

PHO/SAS OVER 203.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

Oh crap forgot to republish the post, sorry people the Portland picks didn't appear, but you know I was hot on the play.

So far so good, but Mavs are behind in the 3rd Quarter now.

Not looking good 5 min. in the 4th quarter.

Loser....

Not bad 5-1 +6.07 units





NBA Tuesday

OK my system is back and running. Sorry I missed Monday, winning play was on POR/LAC U196, but that's just reference to let you know the selections are hitting it's mark.

Back to the Hornets. Golden State takes down the Mavs in first leg of back to back surprising many. Second leg of back to back will show some Dallas hangover.

NO/OK HORNETS -6 at -118 (buy 0.5) for 2 units(L)

That was close, but Warriors closed in the 4th.
0-1 -2.36 units

Sunday, November 05, 2006

NBA Sunday

I'm having computer problems, CPU running very high and everything is loading super slow, so I'm keeping this short. If you've been following my recent writing maybe the play is obvious.
Just waiting for better pricing, but you can bet your ass the play will be on NO/OK HORNETS.
Be back when I pull the trigger.

Might want to wait longer, but like I said computer is acting up and don't want to chance it.

HORNETS -1.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit

Friday, November 03, 2006

NBA Saturday

OK lets stay on the second leg of back to back fade on Boston Celtics.
Will be giving up some points, but I think the differential will be closer to 10.
Arenas went 2-12 in Wizs last game against Cleveland (97-94 loss) and odds are he'll comes back against the Celtics. Keep in mind Gilbert averaged 30+ points against the C's last year. Now the current ATS of 7 appears huge with these two teams matching up tight, but C's are historically dismal in November games.
Wizards have bright season ahead they should come into this game with a killer instinct.

WAS -6.5 (buy 0.5) at -124 for 1 unit(W)
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Advise of warning on people loving Cleveland on Saturday. Cavs have taken 2 tough match ups, Wizards and Spurs, and coming into Charlotte with an skimpy -4 (opened at -3.5) Cavs might take this game lightly.
I'm not backing the Cats here making this game a pass. Morrison is good, but Wallace should be topping the score for the Bobcats.
You know the Cats should of taken care of Memphis Friday night. Nothing like 4th quarter collapse to leave a bitter taste maybe some motivation against the NBA elite. Public will be all over the Cavs and they do look strong closing the games. I'm just not biting this worm.

Should of taken the Cats. Public got slaughtered here.
Wiz takes care of biz and that's all that counts.
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Friday

I guess Denver should be pissed for blowing that game in Los Angeles last night. Will it translate to much determined team back home for the second of back to back? I think the effort will appear in the first half of the game and dissipate into the second half.

MIN +5.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

I'm very tempted to play Minny 2nd Half, but I'll hold off.

1-0 +1.00 unit

Thursday, November 02, 2006

NBA Thursday

There's a hot match in Dallas with Spurs and Mavs. This is going to be good and Spurs are getting fat +5 points at AA Arena. I think Spurs are something like 9-0 last 9 seasons opener, better look that up, it's kind of a revenge situation although they met in San Antonio preseason where Mavs were waxed. Dallas is something like 5-0 season opener, just off the top of my head don't hold me to it, Dirk's been playing FIBA in the summer. Duncan is supposed to be in best shape of his career with his offseason workout. Both teams look to be defensive and the Total for this game is not out yet.
I'm thinking of just watching this game.

Sticking with 2nd leg of back to back team fade.

DEN +5 -115 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units