NBA New Years Eve

YTD 15-19-1 -1.06 units

Happy New Years!
On the eve of 2009 excitement is building, but the fact is I'm looking forward to a smaller gathering. Already got my digital new years greetings set to blast and that's about it. I guess 2008 has been tough on many, including myself, and it'll be good to start a new.




76ers at Clippers


Sixers got blasted in Utah last game, 3rd game where they allowed over 105 points. They have dropped first 3 out 6 game road trip bringing their total to 5-10 on the road, 1-2 ATS on this road trip 6-9 ATS on road, Prized acquisition forward, former Clippers product, Elton Brand inactive since dislocating right shoulder in 3rd quarter against Milwaukee on 12./17 missing 5 games so far and expected out for a month. But Clippers are the Underdog here without Zach Randolph, bruised knees and Baron Davis battling back problems is only scoring less than 12 points. The likely scenario for tonight's match up is Clippers by nature and missing offense coupled with Sixers will to play bit more defense will keep tonight's total low.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS AT LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS UNDER 187 at -104(L)

0-1 -1.04 units

NBA Sunday

YTD 15-17-1 +1.04 units

New York Knicks hosting Denver Nuggets in day time match up. Knickerbockers have now allowed over 100 points in 5 straight games. Knicks also lose 5 in a row, 3 in a row ATS. Disappointing to say the least considering they swept ATS on recent 5 game road trip. The last two games, 12/21 loss at Boston 104-124 was 2nd most allowed in regulation and 12/26 loss at home to Minnesota 107-120 giving up 3rd most in regulation, both are bit out of the norm, but reinforcing this season's Knicks "play no Defense" mix that with Nuggets team loaded with offensive talent and get yourself a 0/U 220. Lofty number 3rd highest in NY games, 12/15 @Suns 226 & 11/29 Warriors 223.5 , road game went Under home game went Over. It's also Denver's 3rd highest O/U with other top two being, yep 12/20 @Suns 222 & 11/05 Golden State 229.5 and both of these went Under. Nuggets have the talent to score at will if given no defense and it makes sense to tie in offense defense to Totals, but they really have not been scoring not to mention they have dropped 5 out of last 6 ATS. They're offense drop a bit on the road too. These teams given scoring potential gives us this number, but they are not the true Over team that can blast this type of number.

UNDER 220 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

Plan B for the day is a play on Hornets.
Hornets at Indy. I know the Pacers can keep it close at home, but after Hornets showing against Houston. New Orleans to make a run.

HORNETS -4.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.10 units

NBA Monday

YTD 15-16-1 +2.06 units

On this dog day Monday we are backing a bottom rung Warriors against one of the NBA elite Magic. Orlando is without Howard, but there seems to be little doubt of slow down against Golden State.

WARRIORS +3.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.02 units

NBA Sunday

YTD 14-14-1 +2.02 units

Lakers road trip did not look good and it's reflecting their road ATS. Bucks on improve and they are nearing full strength. Buck have a losing record in Los Angeles, but the margin of loss is narrowing under 5 points. However double digit ATS is misleading line towards the Bucks given tonight's situation. I think this Total seems reachable and better spot than the sides with 1st half push. Look for Lakers to show focus back at Staples and likely scoring push will take this game Over the Total.

LAKERS/BUCKS OVER 1st Half 106 at -107 for 1 unit(L)
LAKERS/BUCKS OVER 208.5 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

This game ain't going Over these two teams are putting up High School numbers!

Well, the game is always about swinging from one side to the other and the Books are still holding plus triple digit number.

LAKERS/BUCKS OVER 2nd Half 103.5 at +107 for 2 units(W)

1-2 +0.04 units

NBA Tuesday

YTD 13-14-1 +1.02 units

Jazz at Kings.
Satco maybe due, but few feel that way. Jazz short handed, as well as Kings, and Arco games are just not going their way. Is it a short sighted play? The line suggests resistance and there's always the contrarian play not to mention Kings home record beating Utah. I think Sacramento will lose this by more than a basket.

Jazz -1.5 at -115 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Sunday

Looking to bounce back from a dismal loss. YTD 13-13-1 +2.02 units

Houston Rockets proving themselves road worthy team running 7-3 road ATS. Rockets coming off a great shooting and defensive game against their South West rival San Antonio at home bring their balanced game to Pepsi center where they will meet 5-2 at home Nuggets who are very good when scoring above +99 which they have done 4 out of last 4 games and 3 out of last 3 home games, winning 5-2, but 50% ATS. What you have here is two teams on Over tread 4-1 and in both cases showing signs of tapering score with this spot being a decline game. Yes the books have given a very temping number to hit the Over, but this one goes Under..

HOUSTON/DENVER UNDER 193.5 at +101 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Saturday

YTD 13-12-1 +3.02 units

Dallas covers the spread with run built in the 1st half, but Lakers push in the 2nd half was too much to hold the lead. Tonight on Mav's second of road back to back they make the short skip to Sacramento visiting the Kings at Arco a much shorter than trip from Salt Lake. Arco Arena doesn't mean much lately as Kings dropped against visiting NJ in OT (11/26), got killed by Blazers (11/21), Spurs by a basket (11/16), Suns by a basket in OT (11/14)*Last ATS win by a point, Detroit was close 0.5 point ATS loser and the last game they won at home? Golden State 115-98 covering -3 (11/09). Matter of fact Kings have only won 2 games since that span 11/09 till now however Kings are 50% ATS for the same duration and coming off a ass kicking at Utah after 2 good effort games. Dallas broke a string of 5 straight winners, but covered ATS keeping their stocks up. Public still loving Mavericks numbers are 77%+ on Dallas ATS with Spread at -4.5 which seems misleading to me. Rolling the dice on Kings tonight to make this interesting.

KINGS +4.5 at +100 for 1 unit(L)

That was great pick, NOT.
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Friday

YTD 12-11-1 +3.02 units

Dallas at Lakers is getting +10.5 points. I have not seen double digit spread since 2006 between these two teams. Dallas covered -10 at home back in 2/07/2006. Mavericks are playing well lately stringing 5 straight SU wins, but this run looks like running out of steam. Last game against Indiana was a ATS loss no cover. They will most likely not win at Staples and although the spread looks hefty I will chance covering this number for the deepest team in NBA. Lakers improving win after a over Triple digit scoring 60-46 over 3 years is running 6-1 current season and books are still positioning double digit spread which was Lakers weakness in the past. Mavs will have their hands full and they have trouble with offensive oriented teams.


LAKERS -10.5 at +105 for 1 unit(L)

Dallas Mavericks playing excellent 1st half, but books are holding double digit spread in the second.

LAKERS 2nd Half -9.5 at -104 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.00 units

NBA Tuesday

YTD 11-10-1 +3.02 units

Coming out of play lapses. It doesn't mean anything just holidays coming up and things are busy, but I've been honing my plays on NCAA Basketball so not to worry about rust coming off rest.

Staying true to my game, contrarian with plus on money, for the last NBA game on board. Underdog Nets have been showing signs as a road warrior and they're spread has grown to 13.5 points. Lakers no doubt are deep and killed me last time I crossed them, but I will pull the trigger against LA in historically poor situation of double digit favorite with Total set +205 or higher.

Lakers coming off ATS loss to depleted Kings and Koby expressed his thoughts on lack of defense allowing Kings to come within inches even though Sacramento were blown away during the stretch. May see focus from Lakers in protecting their basket, but Nets looking to bring their "A" game.

NETS +13.5 at +104 for 1 unit(L)

This game is not shaping up the way I was thinking. Lakers allowing too many points and unexpected Lopez, a rookie, getting hot in the first half. I see Lakers defense coming down hard in the Second Half.

LAKERS SECOND HALF -7.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 -0.01 unit

NBA Friday

Split last picks with no gain no loss. YTD 11-9-1 +4.07 units

Lakers took care of business in methodical fashion in their last game, 1st of road home back to back, in Phoenix. In that game ATS swung strongly for the Lakers. I thought it was too much points and Suns would push a run on their home court for second half, it never came.
Denver Nuggets also rolling 8-3 ATS beating Spurs, wounded Spur on the road, in their last game and Nuggets are much more deliberate with Billups. This match up first took place back in early November with Nuggets just covering. Last year Lakers were terrible playing the second of back to back, but this year they are arguably the deepest team in NBA. Prior to losing ATS against Denver in last match up Lakers had covered 8 games against Nuggets and now against Denver at home Lakers give -8.5 the exact same number they gave Nuggets at home in Denver. The implication for Lakers to blow out is there, but key to Nuggets ATS gauged on ability to cover away tonight is the rematch situation coupled with Lakers B2B night and Phoenix wire to wire games all giving too much weight (point spred) to Los Angeles Lakers.

DENVER +8.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 10-8-1 +4.07 units

There are two types of vertigo: subjective and objective. There is a subjective vertigo when a person has a false sensation of movement. In the case of objective vertigo, the surroundings appear to move past a person's field of vision.
Vertigo can also occur after long handicapping of games where the mind gets used to turbulence, resulting in a person's feeling as if he is moving up and down. This usually subsides after a few days.
Lakers at Suns. Phoenix takes out Detroit after Detroit wins Lakers, but Suns were handled by Utah in their last game. Lakers since losing their first game this season bounced back nicely and had the second highest scoring output against Chicago, but it was a no cover ATS loss. 2 ATS losses in a row and allowed highest score to opponent making 2 triple digit scoring by opponent. Going against the public on Lakers and Over.

SUNS +5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

LAL/PHO UNDER 206 at +102 for 1 unit(W)

Split.
1-1 +0.00 units

NBA Wednesday

YTD 9-8-1 +2.99 units

Philadelphia 76ers at Minnesota Timberwolves.76ers blew out Oaklahoma 110-85 last game. That makes 3 in a row, two of them double digit ATS win. Yes they look good, but Wolves with 8 straight losses have taken last 3 out of 4 ATS. Looking for the T-Wolves to break out.

MIN +3.5 at +108 for 1 unit(W)

Yes, SU dog winner.
1-0 +1.08 units

NBA Tuesday

YTD 9-7-1 +3.99 units

Coming off a disappointing loss, clippers home game against the San Antonio spurs. Clippers could not muster enough offense to take out the tired San Antonio Spurs as they lost on the home court by a three pointer before the final buzzer. The losses on first half and the second half making it a 0-2 day.

Tonight we move on to Los Angeles. Lakers had that humiliating loss against the Detroit pistons playing on the back that night and dominated the Lakers at home wire to wire. Lakers could not find their rhythm as Detroit scored at will. Tonight Lakers are 13 points favorite against the Bulls making their annual thrashing road trip as the circus hits town. Look at this Total 202, it's too high and it's been rising since opening. Lakers should be concerned with allowed points and Bulls will not help pushing the Over.

Bulls have played 5 home games from 11/7 ~ 11/15 going 3-2, O/U 3-2. Scoring improved in their home stand scoring +99 points 3 times and lowest scoring was 97. But prior to their home stand Bulls recorded 93 points twice and 80 points at Boston, all on the road. Bulls defensive side also improved in their home stand wins allowing 91 points twice and 83 points against Phoenix. Lakers are coming off their first SU loss and first game allowing 106 points. I think the points they gave up looms big tonight

CHI/LAL UNDER 202 at +107 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Monday Late Game

This line may seem strange to many, but reverse line movement favors the unpopular pick. You know San Antonio is the better team they are ex-champions with much of their core intact, well two of their key players are out tonight, but it's not about that, it's about tonight's game where all the wear and tear is expected to catch up with Spurs. At the same time Clippers are to experience a night of clarity where they will look nothing like the practice dummies they have been. At least that what I'm looking for.

CLIPPERS -2.5 at -104 for 1 unit(L)

Down by 5 at the Half, but don't get discouraged there's plenty of game left and this Spurs team arrived to their hotel at 1:00 am in the morning. Yes Clippers could let this get away, but Duncan will have to carry San Antonio the rest of the way.

CLIPPERS -3 SECOND HALF at +106 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.04 units

NBA Thinking ahead on Monday

Coming off another Total win. 9-5-1 +6.03 units

keep in mind some of stuff I wrote. These games are continuous event moving to different venues with multiple variables and if you went through all the stats, schedule, venue, news, refs, girlfriends, wives.....you would waste your time and have no clue where the advantage lies. The advantage occurs when games result beyond or below the norm and those numbers should stand out above the rest. Consider what changed and that is the key.
I could of made a good point if Detroit Pistons at L.A. Lakers giving up double digits was used for example. You know Pistons are making their Western swing and they fully controlled the Lakers, the elite of NBA, on a back to back road game! Won that game SU away, shooting lights out!
Doesn't that stand out? Was it so surprising to see the same Detroit team fail in Phoenix in following game? Man, I wished I posted that one. Will it be surprising when Lakers dismantle their next opponent? Just thinking ahead.
For Monday I'm looking at Oklahoma at home against Houston. Ex-Sonics are getting good points at home today. Also Clippers at home with reverse line movement getting Spurs on back to back.
Spurs gritty come from behind win in first of back to back facing seemingly helpless Clips.
Both very interesting consideration, but I'm still doing some work to finish today's play.

NBA Saturday

Coming off a Total win last night. YTD 8-5-1 +5.03 units

Reflecting on games last night, there are two still going on in the west PHO at SAC & DET at LAL, I like to focus on tightly played games. They are PHL at IND (94-92), ORL at DAL (102-100), HOU at SAN (75-77). Secondary group within 5 point differential POR at NOL (82-87) and MIL at MEN (101-96 OT). These 2 sets of groups will look at the fundamental aspects of energy exerted in each respective battle. Low scoring games and OT games definitely stand out in this area.
Now comes to tonight's match up NOL at HOU both on heels of back to back games, coming off low scoring and gets a U182 Total. Respective overall numbers, home and away numbers gives me 186~187 Total. This Total represents 2nd lowest number in Hornets games and 4th lowest in Houston game and purely from a average stand point both teams should improve off such a low scoring offense, but games leading to this match up gives an interesting back drop.
Houston comes home from 9 days 5 games road trip out west going 2-3 with 2 sets of 3 games in 4 days. First set from 11/04~11/07 with final game against Clippers posting 181.5 Total going Under with 175 combined score. Second set from 11/12~11/15 includes a brawl in Phoenix, a game Rockets won SU as underdog, and last night's loss to short handed Spurs after winning first 3 quarters only to collapse in the 4th ending 75-77 (152) going Under the lowest Total for this season 173.5 by 21.5 points.
New Orleans Hornets also played similar sets 11/05~11/08 only winning Miami SU, push ATS, going 0-2-1 & 11/12~11/15 no ATS cover so far, but defense has sustained 5 Unders in a row. Hornets have the schedule advantage, but they are lacking points going into Toyota Center.

NOH/HOU UNDER 182 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Friday

YTD 7-5-1 +4.03 units
Split last night so nothing to show for effort. Some might say better than losing, but product of effort should have payoff. Simply the game is the market and everything offered is yours to choose. Always the best bet is the one you do not lose. I've touched on this in the past, but if you treat the book as a market you can take position and get out before game start or take position on both sides with positive money. If your interested in capturing gain techniques you'll have to email me otherwise I'll move on.

Wizards at Heat O/U 196.5 is a low looking number isn't it? It should home / away numbers for these teams indicate this total to be at the low end. It opened 197 and came down, but as usual still mixed. Wiz are coming off their first SU win in low scoring game against Utah. What a contrast to that NYK game where Wiz attempted 89 shots and allowed 90, Wiz shot 71 to Jazz 76 and the deliberate pace is likely again. Miami coming off a home loss to Portland allowed 104 points which is most given up at home this season. There should be stronger defensive effort tonight.

WIZ/HEAT UNDER 196.5 +101 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.01 units

NBA Thursday

YTD 6-4-1 +4.03 units
Nice win yesterday. Not much to go with today's light card, but Denver has been tough on Cleveland for quite awhile. The names may have changed, but the game remains the same.
Cavs coming off a no cover home win which is a good sequence to play against. Denver loves points 6-1 ATS so far to start.

DENVER +7 at +104 for 1 unit(L)

Second Half Detroit at Golden State.
Warriors controlling the tempo and it is getting a bit faster. Let's look for 2nd half to go Over the number.

2ND HALF OVER 100 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 +0.00 unit

NBA Wednesday

YTD 5-4-1 +3.03 units
Knicks faded in the second half or more like Spurs finally took control. Knicks on back to back road game will take +4.5 points and this line is worth watching. Though NY got their ass kicked in 1st of back to back at San Antonio that game should not reflect the second sequence as Memphis coming back from their 5 day 4 game road trip with very good effort ATS cover in last game against Phoenix. Taking Knicks on 2nd sequence with points.

KNICKS +4.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Did not need any points in 132-103 Knicks furious bounce back game.
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Veteransday Tuesday

YTD 5-3-1 +4.03 units
San Antonio Spurs are off to a worst start since pre-Duncan era. Though losing Parker in last game against Miami will be a step up situation at home this Spurs team is also missing another key piece in Manu. Combine this down turn in a match up with New York Knicks, a team that's settling into D'Antoni's system. Looking closer at Spurs past few games starting with Miami. Spurs took higher than average shot attempts hitting low 37.6%, way too many 3 attempts hitting another low 31.4% and went to the line only 13 times to Heats 22. Had the ball stolen 11 times and that's the bulk of the story. Before Miami was Minnesota road game. Spurs squeaked by in OT and biggest lead they held throughout was 7 in a no cover game. It was not impressive losing contest in the paint and again opposition held better shooting percentage. Three games back, Dallas at home. This one Spurs were knocked out in the 1st quarter and pretty much down for the count by 1st half. Mavs never looked back in the 2nd half to cover by 21.5 points. What does these past three games tell us about this game? Knicks will have the edge, but they do make mistakes and NYK at Philadelphia was a good example of how situation can get away.
Road trip into Texas basketball heartland against the wounded Spurs are definitely dangerous situation, however the money line value is too good and worth a shot.

NEW YORK KNICKS MONEY LINE +167(L)

Spurs did step up, but had to take a shot.
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Monday

YTD 4-2-1 +3.03 units
It's one of those Dog day monday, as my Russian friend would say, and Grizzlies looking very interesting at +12 on one of those let down home court return for the Suns. Matter of fact Griz seems to be a popular service pick pushed by the touts. I'll look for poor shooting.

MEN/PHO UNDER 197 ar +105 for 1 unit(L)

Here's one for Batis on the 2nd Half.

GRIZZLIES +7.5 SECOND HALF at -101 for 2 units(W)

1-1 +1.00 unit

NBA Sunday

Took a beat yesterday YTD 4-2 +1.96 units.
Today we're back on Atlanta at Oklahoma City. Looking to stay strong even without Josh Smith Oklahoma will have their hand full tonight.

HAWKS -4 at +103 for 1 unit(Push)

Rockets at Lakers 2nd Half. T-Mac twisted his ankle and Yao is a no show. Lakers climb back from 16 point back to take the lead. Going with the home team in 2nd half.

LAKERS -4.5 2ND HALF at +107 for 1 unit(W)

1-0-1 +1.07 units

NBA Saturday

YTD 4-1 +3.01 units
I'm still here. No need to ignore me I've given you winners. So Football's got you all tied up? NBA a crap shoot? Well allow me to roll the dice. NBA line movement no#4. Playing the Total on First Half O/U 99 Suns at Bucks. This Total comes on the heels of Bucks missing their star player Redd from tonight's line up. A situation where home team will come out to rise above their level. Declined Total at 196 and 2 point differential 99 at Half predicting a pace which will shift slower as this game moves along. Do not underestimate Bucks, but Suns are coming off a decisive loss.

PHO/MIL FIRST HALF OVER 99 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

Can't get'em all. Be back.
0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Wednesday

won last selection. YTD 3-1 +2.01 units
Sorry for lack of enthusiasm starting up in the Association. It's not lack of will I love speculating on NBA with knack for taking down Totals better than Sides, but I'll wager quarters, halves, second halves whatever the game offers. It's just been busy and it's not my nature to force wins, it usually back fires.

On this Wednesday I'll back one of the strongest home court in Utah Jazz. I know many are waiting for teams like Blazers to start mixing it up, but Jazz are knocking out unlikely Western contenders. Looking for surge to continue with maybe stronger defense.

UTAH -6.5 at -101 for 1 unit(W)

Well earned win with home court edge.
1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Friday

Tracking Hornets at Suns right now with a bit of interest on the visitors, but today's taking was on NHL with not much NBA.
The last pick was a winner bring our early record to 2-1 +1.00 unit

Clippers fell apart after the first quarter and had a full melt down in the 2nd half. This is very concerning and at the same time build some value if they can show something. Tonight I'll take the road favorite Nuggets.

DENVER -2 at +101 for 1 unit(W)

Scary Halloween winner in OT!
1-0 +1.01 units

NBA Wednesday Late Game

1-1 to start the season, but lost the bigger of 2 so -1.00 unit.

Here we go Lakers on back to back, but off to a impressive start with Blazers amounting to less than a speed bump. We will ride the momentum with Laker 1st half facing the incomplete Clippers across the hall.

LAKERS FIRST HALF -5.5 at -115 for 2 units(W)

Lakers too much in the First Half for Clippers!
1-0 +2.00 units

Couple of Changes

I've added two new links and axed NBX (no longer around). If your a player than you know Matchbook (we worked out our issues) it'll work well for most recreational players and it's a player to player exchange. Good to spread your eggs and still the top is Pinnacle you just can do it directly from U.S. (where there's a will there's a way) I'm thinking about adding Bookmaker, but haven't got around to it.

One Season is real money fantasy exchange. You must of heard of them this site is exploding and for some strange reason you don't know go to their web and check it out for yourself. They'll even give you US$10 for signing up. Get it and buy Kobe or LBJ or D Howard or Nash or some other predictable pro player (it doesn't have to be NBA) and watch your money grow. What the hell, just fund the damn thing and make money. Keep the mantra "buy low sell high" the bulls are running at One Season right now.

NBA Opening Night

Looking foward to Cleveland Boston match up. Cavs look very interesting with Mo Williams addition and should of grabed it with 7 points, but still take it at 6.5 points. On this opening Celtics will most likely lack locking defense and added offense on Cavs side should push this low number Over as well.

CLEVELAND +6.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
OVER 179.5 at +101 for 2 units(L)

I knew the Total was in trouble after the 1st quarter and C's defense picked up big in 3rd quarter to sink the Total Under. Follow the bouncing ball.

1-1 -1.00 units

Get Ready NBA 2008~09

Welcome back handicappers! We are counting the days and preseason games are almost over.
Hope every one's keeping their eyes and ears open because I don't do headlines. If it's obvious public info there's no need to get into it, but it can also be a deterrent to secondary news which may have value and I will bring that up.

If your not familiar with our game we play Dogs or near money and Totals, but look back at some past plays and you'll see Quarters, 1st, 2nd Halves so there's no limitation. We will try to keep it easier for everyone to get their position this year.

Start with last seasons ATS/ML leaders.
Boston
Orlando
New Orleans
Houston
These top 4 teams have 52 or more wins.

Lakers
Washington
Utah
Detroit
Second tier 4 teams Washington has better ATS then Moneyline.

Sacramento
Philly
Denver
Portland
Third tier 4 teams Kings, Sixers and Blazers have better ATS then Moneyline.

Oklahoma Thunder formerly Seattle Supersonics were very tough ATS 39-40-3 teams while going 20-62.
Minnesota ATS 39-42-1 while going 22-60. Both of these teams rank better than San Antonio ATS.

Bottoms feeders.
Clippers
New Jersey
Golden State
Milwaukee
Miami
Memphis
Chicago
Charlotte
Representing 10 games or worse under .500 last season. Warriors despite playing 14 games over .500 their ATS record is 14 games under .500 some elite teams just missed the losers list
Dallas, Clevelnad and San Antonio was not too far off.

NBA Thursday

NBA Playoff New Orleans at San Antonio.
Much discussed Old School vs New Generation. Experience, athleticism, discipline, and all that's been said Spurs are down 2-0 and have not covered since @PHO 4/25. Spurs 37-7 SU at home cover only 23-18-3 ATS, but still dangerous and Hornets did show weakness on the road in Dallas series. What I like here is the Over 182.5 not because of Hornets, but more so because of Spurs. Spurs have shown ability to score something they could not do in New Orleans. Spurs have strung 4 poor offensive games, but it has steadily improved and coming back home maybe just what they need. Hornets offense also climbing steadily 5 games in a row and that's against Dallas and San Antonio.

OVER 182.5 at -115 for 2 units(W)
Game's not over, but Total is.
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Playoff Tuesday

Even with Rockets flashing skills I feel Jazz are the team to move on. Alston has been the key for Houston making the T Mac one two combo, but Jazz are built for playoffs.

Utah Jazz +2 at -112 for 1 unit(L)

Been watching this and this is going to come back in 2nd half. It's been that kind of game throughout this series. Best first round match up is one of the toughest contested match with dog taking these games. Down by 10 I don't think Suns are going to fade away to drop out of this race, but will put up a dog fight ending much closer than what it is at the Half. This gives me equal to Suns +9.5 for the game.

Phoenix Suns -0.5 Second Half at -102 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 -0.12 units

NBA Playoff Monday

Back at you on the Association match up Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets. The talk of sweep fills the L.A. air waves, but Nuggets ATS +4.5 has moved to +4 and money is even at -105 at Pinny. So what gives? Cappers have tagged Denver with points and moneyline. But the similar take I see is the Over coming down from 227.5 to 225.5 or 225 and given the high scoring anticipation the lofty numbers have been broken on twice this season O/U 4-2 and lately the Under is looking like easy money. But keep in mind the books are still holding the big number as the total in this series continued to drop. I think the trend will break with scoring burst fitting of 230's and if Lakers sweep they will not cover tonight.

LAKERS/NUGGETS OVER 225.5 at +111 for 1 unit(L)

I reversed to 2nd Half Under 111.5, but had no time to post.
0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Playoff Sunday

Looking at the Cleveland/Washington total it opened at 190 ~ 190.5 range which compares tad lower to last game total which closed at 191.5 and went Under that number by 11.5 The playoff series in Cleveland 4/21 closed 188.5, over by +13.5, and 4/19 187.5 was Under by 8.5 so this match for Totals have shown classic zig zag pattern with Over coming up.
Over call with Cavs are hard as they are strong Under trending team who peeled off 6 straight Unders finishing their regular season and they can get low 70's like they showed in last effort, but I expect Cavs scoring to go up today. Defensive numbers for Cavs tend to group 2 or more consecutive games giving +96 or more and Washington is same in offensive numbers grouping +96 points or more.

CLEVELAND/WASHINGTON OVER 190.5 at +105 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.05 unit

NBA Playoff Wednesday

Playing a little hardcourt tonight with Nuggets at Lakers. You guys read all the hype, but you know it ain't all that. Lakers, Koby and Co., are going to bring it on at Staples and Denver can't get stops they're not going to win. I think that simple analogy will play out.

LAKERS -7.5 at -116 for 2 units(W)

1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Friday

New York Knicks are playing good ball in April, 5-1 ATS, and they are going to be trouble for Hawk backers tonight in MSG. The situation maybe critical and Atlanta has zig zaged this month, but this team loses more than twice as much on the road and giving up this type of number is a play I will take on the home team.

NY KNICKS +6 at +100 for 1 unit(L)

1-0 -1.00 unit

NBA Tuesday

NBA plays have been cold, but I just like these two games I going to put money on them.

I have no faith in Miami and have them on cruise control fade.
Chicago Bulls -9.5 for +100 at 1 unit(L)

I think Hornet will get it home against Utah Jazz at home and I will give the points.
Hornets -4.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -2.05 units

NBA Sunday

This number has come down and yet it's still a very high number as Kings will need to help out reaching this number. Still Laker full squad in place the pace looks to be high and Kings love to take on top contenders at Arco.

Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
OVER 220.5 at -109 for 1 unit(L)

Lost my touch 0-1 -1.09 units

NBA Saturday

Hawks at Sixers. This game just played out in tightly contested game April 4th and on the second leg of back to back with venue moving to the city of brotherly love. Both teams have been playing hard, Hawks 5 game win streak came to an end at the hands of 76ers, and will there be a revenge on this Saturday game? I don't think the revenge situation weighs as much as the fact Hawks have struggled on the road and they are not a good back to back team. I'll give the point here.

76ers -6 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Friday

It's been awhile since I wrote anything on the Association, but you know I've been doing my homework. Tonight I will back Memphis at home getting hefty +9.5 against the must win Warriors. Golden State needs the wins no doubt and they can roll with the right mind set. The only problem with these late season games are clubs out of the race with a bit of a bounce, Grizz strung 2 wins back to back. The Warriors have been killing the sub .500 teams, but obvious surface only covers the 50% ATS wins. I'm taking a shot the win will fall short of Warrior's cover with Grizzlies showing some skills.

MEMPHIS +9.5 at -108 for 1 unit(L)

In the dust.
0-1 -1.08 units

NBA Monday

Had a thought on San Antonio slipping at Phoenix making two losses in a row and three losses in a row ATS. May not be any concern as they head back to the cozy confines back home where they are solid 26-5 & 13-4 in revenge situation. Of course both are SU records and ATS will paint a different picture, but I do like the Under here and I think Denver's points will come at a premium. Watching this one for now.

What the hell? Wasn't this Total somewhere like 204? Yes, it was high as 204.5 waited bit too long and it's probably a good thing to lay off this puppy. I mean 204 was OK, just OK, not great and going under this number wouldn't surprise me, but the value has been sucked out and everyone is on it. Moving on to something else.

Dallas will host the depleted Knicks and there is a guideline about wounded team, but this is going to be one of those early knock out type of game. I do fear Dallas taking a big lead and coasting the 2nd half so here goes a rare short game.

DAL -7.5 First Half at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Easy 1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Tuesday

This match up, an indicated line blow out by Lakers, may hold true and the sign since breaking from the all star break is the declining total. I'm not sure how many have caught on, but I have a feeling this game will take a break and go Over. I understand the interior has become tough to penetrate against the Lakers, but Blazers does have pretty good outside game. Taking a shot here.

Lakers at Portland Over 202 at -101 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.01 units

NBA Monday

Well NBA has not been kind so I moved my play over to NCCA baskets and they are doing much better, thank you. It doesn't mean I've given up on the Association. I'm going to retool my plays there's more than one way to skin the cat.

NBA Friday

2nd Half Play:

Let's say this line is 0.5 points Clipper bias. It's still worth a shot with West looking tight Jazz has no room to drop this one against the Clips. This spread doesn't even give them a win.

Utah Jazz -4.5 at -101 for 1 unit(L)

NBA Wednesday

Looking to turn it around in 0-1 showing last selection. YTD 96-65-2 +50.98 units.
We are still deep in black, but the boys don't like losses.

Chicago Bulls at New Jersey Nets
Da Bulls screwed me the last time I backed them, but this is the new half and Nets look forward to next season with departing Kidd.

Bulls -3 at -109 for 2 units(L)

Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns
Lakers in a dog spot and has moved from +4.5 to +3.5, but I would go ML here in the valley of the Suns. Shaq is just a distraction at this point where Lakers are doing it already with Gasol.

Lakers ML +140 for 1 unit(W)

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
Rewind and look up how these two teams have matched up. Toronto has strung 7 going back to '05 before Magic took the last one in early season. Magic did start hot before leveling off, but they did finish on a high note winning Denver at home then Detroit on the road and that Detroit win was a solid double digit outright as a road dog. Toronto has been alternating wins and losses, but at home they have dropped 3 out of last 4 and they are not fairing well against winning teams. I'd say their best recent game was at Boston 1/23, Milwaukee didn't put up much fight and Washington turnaround match at home was with Wiz completely depleted. Since than it's been all rude awakening up to beating the Nets at home in last game. I'll take a shot with Orlando outright going away.

Magic ML +167 for 1 unit(L)

1-2 -1.78 units

NBA Tuesday

0-1 last selection YTD 96-64-2 +53.06 units

Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets
Backing Boston tonight at Pepsi Center against the Nuggets. Denver healthy and playing well, but as they've shown in Orlando this team is defensively challenged. Still no cake walk at Pepsi without a center for Celtics Powe will need to step in again, but he will have some help with return of Kevin Garnett. Ray Allen had his right thumb bent back in practice yesterday, but looks like he is good to go tonight. Celtics 6-1 as dog this season, 16-7 on the road, 15-8 against winning teams and undefeated against the West. Denver regressed on the road after beating Cleveland no cover against Miami then losing SU at Orlando. Denver 12-13 against winning teams and their schedule is sandwiched with road games heading into March.

Boston Celtics +1 at -104 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.08 units

NBA Tuesday

0-1 last selection. YTD 96-63-2 +54.11 units
The boys said "we don't like losses, but give us gains and you get perks." It's alwasy good to keep the boys happy so I said "OK let's back the Bulls at home." They said "what?"

Chicago Bulls rolled through West Coast road trip covering 5 games in a row while Hornets have failed to cover 4 out of last 5. Bulls coming off 10 points SU loss, but 2 point cover, which was at the end of their road trip and cover or not 10 point loss should bring some sense of urgency to tonights game. Hornets are coming off a double digit win, no cover, playing another sub .500 team. I don't see much for Hornets to get excited about look for Bulls to hang around tonight.

CHICAGO +6 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Sunday

1-0 last selection YTD 96-62-2 +55.21 units

Looking to rise and keep the winners rolling.

Washington Wizards at Phoenix Suns
The dynamics have changed. There is an internal issue as to Suns fundamental style of play between the GM and the Coach. Nash is still running the show, but I just can't help thinking the Total has moved to the wrong direction.

WAS/PHO UNDER 210.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

It was looking good in 1st half, but 3rd quarter was the killer.
0-1 -1.10 units

NBA Saturday

1-0 last selection. YTD 95-62-2 +54.16 units

New York Knicks are not exactly Kung Pao, but playing a dogged role in fine fashion. Almost had the Spurs in last game leading most of that game with a disappointing outcome in OT. Still Knicks with points are worth a shot. Knicks have won 4 out of last 5 road games ATS and though they come off a OT loss the ATS was a cover. Milwaukee also SU loss ATS cover to Dallas, but whopping +14 points at home. Tonight they are 6 point home favorite and that just doesn't seem right.

KNICKS +6 at +105 for 1 unit(W)

New York outright win going away. How about that!
1-0 +1.05 units

NBA Friday

2-0 last selection. YTD 94-62-2 +52.16 units

Took a day off in NBA, but will be on tonight's game large.
One of those situation where Kings are dogs at the Arco and Jazz will be a tough customer tonight, but Kings will not drop two at Arco.

KINGS +2 at -103 for 2 units(W)

Never was a doubt. Took 2nd half Kings too! Sorry for not posting that one.
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Wednesday

Super Tuesday was a blow. 0-2 last selection. YTD 92-62-2 +49.06 units

San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards
Both teams are coming off 1st leg of back to back and Wizards have lost Butler in the first game.
You can say 1st game without a star player the team rises to it's occasion, but let's not forget Butler left early and looked like Wizards were rising 76ers on the ropes down double digits in the 4th and that, ladies and gentlemen, was squandered. Let's not forget Stevenson was crushed by Dalembert driving the lane in the 4th. He did return in closing minutes, but Wizards are running out of players to rise to the occasion. Besides how many occasions can you have? Washington's fall in late game due to pressure? that is weak, bombing 3's with more than enough time is inexcusable.
Spurs to clamp in down tonight. No mercy.

San Antonio -6.5 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

Los Angeles Clippers at Boston Celtics
Clips have alway played Boston well, that was the story last season. Tables have turned and no Garnett Celtics will take this SU & ATS back after a loss. Clips may have won in New York, but it's still better to fade them here than to back them.

Boston Celtics -7.5 at +110 for 2 units(W)

2-0 YES +3.10 units

NBA Super Tuesday

2-0 last selection with extra bonus +0.15 units. YTD 92-60-2 +51.19 units

Watch out for that Lakers in Jersey getting heavy consensus with opening line visitors -4.5 and now holding -5.5 , but at this rate it should go to 6. Keep in mind boys and girls the musical chair is winding down and someone's going to miss out on getting a seat. Lakers have strung 3 or more consecutive ATS wins 6 times this season with losses after 3 wins happening 3 times and have yet to string 5 consecutive ATS's which may not be any concern considering Lakers play in comparison to Nets (6-16 home ATS & 4-13 ATS against winning teams), but Nets did beat out the Lakers in early season. Nets have concluded their long road trip in Minnesota dropping that game, but definitely improved on the road, single basket differential at Golden State cover 1/24, tight loss 3 points at Memphis 1/27, bucked the one day back between road trip fade spot as -6 point fav against the Bucks 1/29 and beat the reeling Heat as a short road favs 2/01 so dropping ATS on the last road game to Atlanta by 2 possessions might be forgivable. Lakers winning by double digit seems much too common and continuing this degree of performance on the road is tough to conceive. Lakers streaks were all broken as single digit fav except one. Gasol in the mix might add value to over looked Nets at home. (early write up.)

The early line has pulled away now sitting at 7 which is huge. Keep your eyes and ears open.

Lakers -7 hitting resistance, but inflating line was right on time with Pacific time zone. I'm buying 0.5 points and taking position. Don't you love it when media makes Lakers a done deal and not even bring up what? New Jersey? Lakers reaching better than +76% consensus, just shy of Spurs, with huge line swing. Shaping up to be a classic blood bath.

NEW JERSEY NETS +7.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

(12:45 PST)
Resistance at Lakers -7 has broken through -7.5 and looking to add in closing hour Nets +8 or better. I think middle money will start coming in at this point.

---------------------------------------------------------------
Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers
Wizards dropping 3 in a row is not a bad thing. Coming off a double digit loss to Lakers at home should be a wake up call. Wizards 10-3 ATS against division rivals, 10-6 ATS against losing teams and 7-3 ATS after double digit loss. 76ers are inconsistent at home and questionable as short favorite.

WASHINGTON -1.5 at -103 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.13 units

NBA Monday

0-1 last selection. YTD 90-60-2 +49.04 units

Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
Raptors coming off a loss at home to Lakers, but they are very good coming off a SU/ATS loss.
Toronto's low post strength will not be stopped by Miami. Taking the road favorite to dominate the glass and take this going away.

TORONTO -7.5 at -105 for 2 units**OFF LOAD**
This band wagon is getting a bit too crowded for my taste. We got in early at a fair price, good price should be on the plus side, and line has been pushed to -8. Take Miami +7.5 at +120 with Matchbook and keep the difference.

WTF, Toronto blow out and I unloaded this good pick.... +0.15 units

The revised game is Chicago Bulls at Seattle Supersonics.
It didn't work out with Orlando at Indy, but the thinking is basically SU winner no cover Sonics against SU loser ATS covering Bulls. Although the situation is best played on home dog coming off the ATS cover considering Sonics last game, 1 point coin flip win at home, no cover ATS, to the exhausted Knicks at the end of West Coast road trip with no Curry down low. Other side Bulls hanging tough at Arco covering ATS after getting humiliated at Minnesota. Interesting recap from Bull at Kings game, Brad Miller dominated the glass over Ben Wallace 20 to 9, you think Big Ben will be focused tonight?

BULLS PK at -102 for 1 unit(W)

Charlotte Bobcats at Phoenix Suns
Here is a top vs bottom tier match up in very lopsided favorites playing at home coming off a SU/ATS loss. Phoenix Suns are 7-3 L10 ATS all giving up points and they have not recorded a back to back loss in that span, but Suns backers are all too aware of the pitfalls in giving up double digit points at home setting them back 9-12 making this a no play spot for many cappers. Keep in mind Suns are like a fine tuned precision machine and when they start miss-firing watch out. 10 games prior to last 10 holds 3-7 ATS. This match up is the second of this season where Suns schooled the Cats on their court by a 32 point margin! dejavu, last season Suns killed the Cats going away by a 30 point margin in early season - March rematch in the Valley of the Suns goes OT with Cats almost pulling off the impossible and easy 25 point margin cover. OK, that scenario playing out is meaningless tonight, but Cats getting double digits in Arizona with ATS margin narrowing, ATS number is getting bigger and losing point margin decreasing, is a indicator for Cats ATS cover. Suns 5-8 ATS giving up double digits, but if you go -11 or higher 3-7 ATS.

BOBCATS +14.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
By the hook baby!

Kicking myself for off loading, but did it the hard way.
2-0 +2.00 units

NBA on SUPERBOWL Sunday

1-1 last selection. YTD 90-59-2 +50.12 units

There is only 1 game left. Dallas at Detroit.
Once again a natural spot to fade the Mavericks, but similar to last night ATS is too suspect.
Sharps backing Pistons and ATS reads 2 losses no cover on 2 SU wins. Take the points run with the squares in the bookie adjusted game.

DALLAS +5.5 at -108 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.08 units

NBA Saturday

1-1 last selection. YTD 89-58-2 +48.96 units

Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers
Magic taking this game looks likely and Pacers failing once again seems probable, but ATS tells a different scenario. Magic coming off SU win no cover and Pacers SU loss covering the spread.
You know what that means, take the home team getting points.

INDIANA PACERS +4 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

Another close loser. Adding a late game.
New York losing the west coast road trip, but they are rolling ATS. Normally a tough spot maybe a natural fade spot, but these banged up bunch may pull off a SU upset. I want to be a part of it...New York, New York.

NEW YORK KNICKS +3 at +109 for 2 units(W)

Right on time..New York, New York!
1-1 +1.16 units

NBA Friday

0-1 last selection. YTD 88-57-2 +47.96 units

Houston at Indiana
Rockets without T-Mac was a losing proposition. "Was" is the key word with Yao 2008 up grade more than enough. Pacers will try to make a stand at home, but give me the Texas contender to take this going away.

ROCKETS -4 at -104 for 1 unit(L)

New Jersey Nets at Miami Heat
Miami does not scare anybody even with the make shift group led by Ricky Davis taking a push (amazingly Total also pushed 198!) against Orlando. Good effort with make shift starters all in double figure, but Nets should take this in Miami.

NETS -3 at +102 for 2 units(W)

Looked like 2-0, but settle for 1-1 taking the bigger wager.
1-1 +1.00 unit

NBA Thursday

0-2 last selection YTD 88-56 +49.96 units

Having a rough patch need to get back on track.

Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons
Lakers didn't deserve that last ATS win against Knicks and it'll hold true against Pistons.

DETROIT -7.5 at -104 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.08 units

NBA Wednesday

0-1 last selection 88-54-2 +51.98 units

Close doesn't cut it in zero sum game. Going for the bounce back tonight.

Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Hornets
Warriors don't get this many points, but it shows me odds makers were way off in their first assessment in Jan. 4th when Warriors dropped SU being -2.5 fav's at home. That was only the start of Bees January run. Warriors made a valiant effort rally against Rockets at Houston, but fell short and they have failed to cover 4 in a row. Hornets line takes a late day drop back to opening spot and taking Hornets to roll

HORNETS -8.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

Charlotte Bobcats at Sacramento Kings
Kings at Arco is no joke and they have been able to cover against some of the best in NBA, but coming off a SU win no cover in a spot that has been money.

BOBCATS +8 at +106 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.02 units

NBA Tuesday

0-1 last selection 88-53-2 +53.00 units

Great to hear from Batis. The plays are still being blogged to keep in touch with my far reach friends. Hope everything is well and your keeping up with NBA.

This is what I'm on tonight. Have been bit lazy in not posting accurate price, but -110 is a fair market price and I need to catch up on Year To Date record. I'm also not playing on daily basis or playing as many multiple games my days are busier.
Backing the Knicks doing the West Coast swing. Lakers are in the hunt and Kobe can light it up on any given night, but New York is short on believers and surge is little noticed.

NEW YORK KNICKS +9.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

This is heartbreak hotel. 1 basket away and NY missed the lay up and we missed the back door cover, actually we we're in the black for most of that game.

0-1 -1.02 units

NBA Friday

1-1 last selection 88-52-2 +54.10 units

Sup Alphonse? Like Sonics at home still getting points after 2 consecutive ATS cover. The line has inflated to 3 and this one might go down outright.

SUPERSONICS +3 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.10 units

NBA Wednesday

0-1 last selection 87-51-2 +54.30 units

Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics. This game comes after 3 big outputs from Boston, 100 - 116 - 109 points with last 2 games shooting 58.9% then 54.7%, naturally taking the usual low looking total easily Over. Celtics have the defense to alter shots and should be no different for Raptors. Toronto is aware of Boston's surging offense and their focus will be on the stops.

TORONTO/BOSTON UNDER 185 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

Late game is Houston at Seattle. Good revenge spot for Sonics at home getting points. They covered the first match up in Houston and showed energy. This line has moved 0.5 points increasing the spread.

SUPERSONICS +6 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 -0.10 units

NBA Monday

0-1 last selection 87-50-2 +55.40 units

On this MLK Monday my regret is not moving fast enough thinking the line was going to inflate and it may still take a 0.5 point bounce back towards the opening line, but current line as of this writing is a full point below the opening 6. The game is San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Bobcats where two teams taking momentum in different direction, Spurs 1-8 ATS and Cats 7-3 ATS in January, will meet. Cats were stung in New Orleans 2 games ago, but bounced back nicely against Memphis in impressive fashion for 6 consecutive home ATS wins. San Antonio has yet to cover on the road in Janurary, last cover was Dec. 13th at Lakers. Also qualifying for top team vs bottom team situation with home team getting points after a win and cover.
San Antonio is the better team and very well may come out to take care of business, but Cats should be fired up for this game to keep it interesting, Cats after winning by 10 points or more 4-1 ATS.

BOBCATS +5.5 at -110 for 1 units(L)

0-1 -1.10 units

NBA Friday

1-0 last selection 87-49-2 +56.50 units

Sacramento Kings are getting exposed on the road. Since peaking against Dallas win Jan. 14th at Arco they were demolished in Toronto. I would normally see such a bad beating to spark a renewed drive against the next opponent, but Kings are out of their element and this is a rag tag bunch that's been thrown off keel with injection of returning starters. Detroit took a big slap in their face in New York Jan. 13th and promptly responded by taking out Toronto in their next game. Pistons back on mission will methodically pick apart the Kings at home.

PISTONS -9 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

Way off course reading the surging Kings.
0-1 -1.10 units

NBA Thursday

1-0 last selection 86-49-2 +55.50 units

Phoenix Suns should wake up in second go around at Staples, but this ain't no Clippers. It's the Lakers gunning them down just like in the days of Forum. Still this game comes after the big slap in the face to Suns and Lakers are poised to feel the effect of missing big man Bynum in this spot. Lakers also coming of 2 consecutive no cover wins a situation I like.

SUNS -1.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Wednesday

2-0 last selection 85-49-2 +54.50 units

Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers in rematch from Jan.13th and going with old fashion revenge play on Indy. Pacers are not all that strong in revenge situation but, they had couple of days to simmer that loss on a game they controlled the first half, covered ATS, which brings a spot 21-9 ATS on 2 days rest 3 seasons running. Warriors coming off no cover win at Minnesota second consecutive game with no cover and that is a precursor to a SU loss on second of back to back.

PACERS -1 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Tuesday

2-0 last selection YTD 83-49-2 +52.50 units

Plot thickens in NBA. Some interesting situation to marinade on tonight.

Let's start with Washington Wizards at New York Knicks.
Wizards are playing good ball taking the game in Boston after taking them at home for a double up. Now they are in MSG giving up a small -2.5 points? Lowly Knicks are going to get their ass kicked in.... I'm going to say "Not" Calling this Wizrads hangover day after Sam Adams double keg er and looking for deflated energy out of the Washington bunch. Lowly Knickerbockers are still in the Manhattan shadows, but did everyone forget they just blew out a pretty good team called Pistons at home.

KNICKS +2.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Late game with Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers.
Clippers coming off a heartbreaker loss to Dallas at the buzzard after leading most of that game. Clippers showing more determination and Suns, like Mavericks, getting more respect than what they have done lately, 1-5 ATS last 6 games, Looking for Clippers to hang in on this one. They have beat the Suns SU as a huge road dog in last meet when Clips were rolling in early season. Turn of events have taken LA through a down cycle, but the tide is changing once again. Suns are falling at Staples or at least not covering ATS.

CLIPPERS +8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.00 units

NBA Monday

0-1 last selection YTD 81-49-2 +50.48 units

I'm going to blame US financial market for disrupting my focus on NBA. It's all good though I was one of the few who came out of 2007 market smelling like roses with no credit exposure and gains on commodities futures. I need to turn in some paper work and get back to the games. It's all about staying ahead of the curve.

Dallas is not playing well. They've had 2 consecutive flat games on the road. Seattle game where Dallas won by 20 points, +11 points ATS, is misleading because Mavs had no offense and it was a case of Dallas winning with a bad game. At Clippers without Josh Howard they trailed most of that game and a lucky 3 pointer by Stack at the buzzard to win by 1 point is definitely not impressive. Here we go today into the jaws of Arco as the heavy road favorites with 75% wagering consensus on Dallas. Yes, Howard is back and Kings have been short handed, but you know these guys bring their game in one of the most advantageous home arena in the league.
In addition Howard's mysterious departure from Los Angeles for personal reason is something to read into. It usually relates to critical family issue we'll see if his head is in the game.
The play is on line watch, but it will be a play.

KINGS +6 at +102 for 1 unit(W)

Speaking of Seattle losing to bad Dallas. Lakers are coming and we have a reverse line movement with wagering public heavy on Lakers yet line has dropped from SEA+8 to +5.5 and Lakers are without Bynum. I'm not chasing line, but as I said it before SU win no cover is a precursor to a loss. Letting Memphis back in the game at Staples and squeezing out a win. Now a road favorite on back to back against a Sonics squad coming off a loss to a bad playing team, even if they were Dallas. No play for us, but we will advise to stay off the Lakers.

Told ya!

Adding Portland at New Jersey.
Blazers double OT did not end their way, but it's too early to start doubting this team on the road. Truely a team which has bought into Nate McMillian's system.

PORTLAND +5 at -106 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.02 units

NBA Sunday

lost last selection 0-1 YTD 81-48-2 +51.53 units

Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors.
Late night games in NBA West is taking the high road. Warriors are heating up again back at the Oracle and players are backing Warriors, but Indy comes in with Dunleavy playing higher level eager to display what Warriors have let go. Going with a shoot out.

GSW/IND OVER 225 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Friday

Toronto at New York
It's the Raps at MSG and you know as they say when the dues are over due? I'm not talking about the Knicks, but the game Total. The Under could strike anytime I prefer to take scoring data giving me a outcome of 196 points

TOR/NYK OVER 192.5 at -109 for 1 unit(L)

That was no good.
0-1 -1.09 units

NBA Thursday

1-0 last selection YTD 81-47-2 YTD +52.64 units

Don't see much advantage today, but watching Totals. It's about 50/50 right now and plays will most likely be posted much closer to game time.

Kept watching Wolves at Kings and kicking myself for not pulling O203. I thought it was going to be much closer.

NBA Wednesday

0-1 last selection YTD 80-47-2 +51.62 units

I'm inclined to take Atlanta against Cleveland, but bit opposed to giving any points and not really into paying the ML price so passing this game.

Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors
Normally I would take the customary points as Toronto does not seem to be in a position to lay this many points, but I do have issue with 76ers declining shooting percentage. Raps just coming off a rare defeat while out shooting their opponent due to highest rebounding allowed this season.
The glass will not come cheap at Air Canada Center tonight. Look for another double digit road loss for Sixers.

TORONTO -8.5 at +102 for 1 unit(W)

This one is still on the watch to improve list:
Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Clippers
Magic made a effort last night, but too little too late at Sacramento. No problem second of back to back is just a short hop to L.A. with plenty of time to prepare crushing of Clippers, or is it?
Line opened at Magic -3.5 only moving -0.5 with resistance at -4 (square books have -4.5)
Not quite over the public consensus 75% threshold. Magic riding 4 consecutive ATS losses, would of been 5 covering Cats game by the hook, 3 in a row SU losses as favorite. But what I like in this situation is Clippers coming off a SU loss, ATS cover and getting points in following home game. Precursor to a SU home team win.
This would of qualified if it went to +5, but resistance was strong. You know Clippers would not cover when they couldn't take the lead after cutting the deficit.

We'll let the games come to us.

1-0 +1.02 units

NBA Tuesday

1-1 even money last selection YTD 80-46-2 +52.62 units

Running short on time, but taking Sonics on the road getting points. Will try to get back before game time. Try, is the key word.

SUPERSONICS +9 at +102 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

NBA Monday

Rolling off another winner missed yesterday, but ready for Monday. YTD 79-45-2 +52.62 units

Not much tonight, but Denver at Phoenix is a match up many are spotting Suns to return to their late season form. Well I'm from the school of Missouri so they have to "Show Me" first. Going with Nuggets on 2nd of B2B away from Pepsi taking points.

NUGGETS +7 at +113 for 1 unit(L)

Situational Play:
The game has drifted too low in the first quarter and as you can see the scoring is climbing. I expect the scoring to continue through the latter half.

2nd Half SAS/GSW OVER 99.5 at +100 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 0.00

NBA Saturday

Coming off another perfect winners. YTD 78-45-2 +51.62 units

Let's do it again.

New Orleans Hornets at Phoenix Suns
Let it score baby.

NOH/PHO OVER 208.5 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Friday

Didn't make a play, but went 3-1 in NCAA Hoops! Record stands at 76-45-2 +48.62 units

Got a position on early line at 206, but will add to this tonight.

New Orleans Hornets at Golden State Warriors.
Of course this game is going over and I expect this one to sail.

NOH/GSW OVER 208 at -104 for 2 units(W)

The games are about to begin and just wanted to put up some random thoughts.
Houston at Orlando game with Magic as -4.5 favorite seems miss leading to me. Rockets are playing very efficiently without T-Mac contrary to their past games missing the star. Magic and Howard the Beast kind of reminds me of Clips when Elton was healthy. Not yet a elite level team in my opinion. For those banking on Magic or Rockets tonight you know where I stand.
Houston has moved to +5 in closing minutes.

Over is available at -103 now.

HOUSTON +5 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

Orlando final basket to tie the game negated as time ran out and Rockets win SU!
2-0 +3.00 units

No Play Today

1-1 last selection YTD 76-45-2 +48.62 units

Sorry fellas small card tonight got away from us. Besides NCAA card was full of games.
We shall return to the Association.

NBA Wednesday

2-0 last selection YTD 75-44-2 +48.60 units

New Jersey Nets at Orlando Magic
How do we slice this game? Let's start with public consensus being heavy on Magic, above the 75% threshold. Orlando Magic winners 4 game in a row 4-1 in last 5 compared to 2-3 in prior 5, looks like things are turning around for Orlando, or is it? Could it of been simple scheduling? ATS record for past 10 games are 6-4 with first 5 games going 3-2 and latter 5 games going 3-2 so more they seem to change it stays the same. I like the fact Magic is coming off a SU win no cover ATS loss which is a precursor to a weak game especially giving up higher points. Besides Orlando at home is not a sweet place with meager 7-6 ATS record. Nets are getting better, but blow out ATS losses Nets took against Wizards, Clippers, Knicks and Kings really lowered their stock. Since then they have gone 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, no cover to Washington was by 1 point margin, and suffered a big defeat to Detroit but that's excusable. Books may have been wrong, but Nets were getting +5.5 against Pistons and now they're getting +6.5 against Orlando who failed to cover -2.5 / -3 against Chicago. Magic is the stronger team, but line is inflated with chance to go higher and look to pull the trigger above +7 ATS New Jersey.
Nets better on the road 7-5 and when they get +6.5~9 points 13-4 three seasons running.

NO PLAY ON NETS
It has fallen below 75% consensus and line is holding or dropping.

Tracking another target for publishing.
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Warriors are on a fast track, but Dallas is a very imposing Under team(O/U 1-9 L10) and I am a big fan of Warriors Under on the road(O/U 6-11 Overall). Because of perceived high scoring which mentally sticks, remember 115-120 Mav's win 11/08 at Oracle arena? When was the last time Warriors failed to score over 100 points against Mavericks?(O/U 7-1 Last 8 in Dallas), makes the current number looks easily reachable. But Dallas in last 10 games have shown tightening defense compensating lower scoring. Since the Orlando game 12/17 111-108 number has steadily dropped. The last game was their best showing of balanced offense and defense never trailing the entire game. The key for Dallas tonight will be defusing Warriors high octane offense and they can do it.

GSW/DAL UNDER 213.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

Taking a situational total in 2nd Half: Hornets at Clippers

2nd Half TOTAL OVER 90 at +107 for 1 unit(W)

Threw away a perfect play in Nets to take a losing Total. Should of known Dallas was going to be coming after the Warriors.
1-1 +0.02 units