My overnight selection for the early line on Kings at Warriors.
With these teams you might lean to the Over, but looking back at the past match ups for 3 seasons there is only one regulation Over and one OT Over which would of ended Under without the OT. The line makers have done well in shading the Over just enough to take the public's money.
Normally I would not take this game early, maybe even let the Total numbers climb and hit the Under, but this match up has both Kings and Warriors on the rise. Yes the recent games have been against below .500 teams, but these teams were also playing on an winning note before getting knocked down by Kings and Warriors.
NO beat MIN at home than SEA on the road before losing to GSW, TOR was on an ATS terror since beating MIA 11/20 SU they kept all the games close on the road to take ATS wins until GSW. UTA demolished MIL at home and went on to beat SEA on the road Warriors stopped them too.
King will be 2nd leg of back to back, but after storming out of the gate and showing 3 strong quarters, they played all reserves in the 4th quarter against the Bobcats. Before that they edged out Toronto that was on a roll. Before that was the Nets on the tough West Coast swing, but on this night Nets were shooting 53.8% from the field and Kings still beat them.
This might be the type of game that's long been expected with Kings starters picking up where they left off at the end of 3rd quarter against the Cats and Golden State fighting fire with fire. Both teams have been very active in the paint and if the shooters find their range this one should go into 200+ points.

SAC/GSW Over 197.5 -110 for 3 units(W)
Whoop there it is.

Now it's Wednesday late morning and I'm ready for the day.
I will apply the theory I used Tuesday. Offense does not suffer over defense on back to back road game. Why wouldn't Suns try to out run an opponent coming to their house on a back to back?
The opening Total was shaded Under and caught momentum.
Many indicators and past performance will point to Under, but beware as Under oriented teams like, MEM, UTA, DET, have played at America West Arena with their Under backers getting burned and the Totals on these games were all set in the 195~199 range.

IND/PHO Over 193.5 -114 for 2 units(W)
Just like the MAV/MIL game yesterday, 200 at end of regulation.

One more addition. I know the players love this Under and they could very well be right. I just find this Total set for this match a bit high and if you were to look at the 1st quarter and 1st half the Under shade is more than obvious. I consider this number as luring Under and usually the opposite holds true for the outcome.
Clippers are not the same team from last season and Cavs looks ready to explode. This is a line play.

LAC/CLE OVER 198 -106 for 1 unit(W)
OT take this one clear Over.

That ain't working that's the way to do it.
3-0 +6.00 units

You know all of today's game went against the long term trend, match up trend & totals trend. Something that's rarely seen. Maybe normality will be the order for Tuesday.

Dallas playing on 2nd leg of back to back road game arrived to Milwaukee after stealing one in Toronto, Rators took easy ATS win, that 1st leg game changed leads 16 times, tied 12 times and went down to the wire....This was not a good game for 9-3 (now 10-3) SouthWest powerhouse against a 1-13 (now 1-14) Atlantic bottom dweller. This is not a good sign for the second leg.
OK, Bucks cooled off, in their last game Pistons changed the pace and shut them down in their own house, but that was a extremely good Pistons executing down the stretch and playing defense. Other than that (Pistons) game, Bucks are sharp shooters at home, they have taken down some good teams and they will be hungry for a win. It's not easy to take back to back road game in NBA.

Line opens MIL -1 and Dallas backers have pushed this to PK. Wait, I got that wrong, line opened DAL -1. I do see MIL -1 at some books.
I'll take some of that for my overnighter.

MIL PK -104 for 3 units(W)

You got to love Batis, I go to him and say "look at this...look at that... look what I did..." and he'll tell me to shut up and Just Do It.
So on to my added plays.
I like the score to climb for DAL/MIL today, Total numbers opened shaded Under and caught some momentum. Bucks low scoring trend combined with
Mavs back to back plus recent low scores, defense, all reasonable logic.
My argument here is I don't think offense will suffer over defense for Mavs playing back to back. Mavs defense is different from the likes of Pistons or Spurs, they play more of pressure defense to make steals and create turn overs, protect the middle lane and don't let guys streak down the middle. For Mavs to play this defense on the 2nd leg might be extending their stamina.
I hope Bucks will have this edge and push the tempo. Dallas, being a great team, I think will find their shooters in range and keep pace to stay in striking distance. I like the OVER.

DAL/MIL 1st Half OVER 100 +100 (Even) for 2 units(W)
DAL/MIL OVER 199 -109 for 2 units(W)

Another game I will take is IND/UTA.
Jazz has improved , but not really close to full strengh. I think Andrei Kirilenko, aka AK-47, will be on the court and that should give some boost at home.
I like what I saw in Pacers when they played the Clippers at Staples. While Clips played a up down game Pacers played very steady constant pace and surged in second half. They looked like the expected contenders.
Indiana 4-0 SU & ATS for past 3 seasons and 3 of 4 games in series have gone Over.

IND -3.5 -105 for 1 unit(W)
IND/UTA OVER 177.5 -105 for 1 unit(L)

Not quite perfecto. IND/UTA Total was not close at all, even the 2nd half went Under.
4-1 +6.95 units JUST DO IT BABY !

I think Batis would remind me that it's home dog Monday. That would be Toronto +8 matching up with Dallas. It looks like early money likes the play (now at -108) There's a Toronto +8.5 at BetWWTS.
I think the public might bite on Dallas on a bounce back spot, but Howard is out....I'll watch the line on this one.

What I will take early is the Total on the same game.
Dallas was beat bad at home against the Grizz (92-112 -27 ATS Dallas loss)
Toronto was waxed at Golden State (91-117 -17 ATS Toronto loss)
Some may look at these last games and think the scores will climb.
Mavs have reached the 100+ points in 3 previous games and Raptors broke 100+ in 2 previous games not to mention games at Air Canada Center soars high, but I look at Raptors last game getting beat in the paint 60-28 at GSW,
Dallas at home lost the inside 52-36 to Memphis and think that's too many easy baskets they gave up.
I'd say they turn up the defense.

DAL/TOR UNDER 202 -120 for 2 units(W)

Nice call on Toronto home dog Batis, just as you predicted.
BetCrimes tracking heavy Dog run did give me second thoughts.
How do you like my totals? Do you think it's back to last season's form?

I have not been updating my record since Week 1.
Here's what it looks like from the start of this season.

11/01
DAL/PHO UNDER 218 -116 to win 2.00 units (L)
0-1 loss -2.32 units
11/02
SAC/HOU UNDER 192 at -119 for 1 unit (W)
IND -5 at -110 for 2 units (W)
IND/ORL UNDER 189 at -109 for 2 units (W)
3-0 +5.00 units
11/03
PHO +4 at -116 for 3 units (W)
PHO ML +148 for 1 unit (W)
2-0 +4.48 units
11/04
Memphis -2.5 at -104 (W)
MEM 1st Quarter -1 at -105 for 2 units (W)
DEN 1st Quarter -3 at -105 for 2 units (W)
DEN 1st Half -6 at -105 for 3 units(W)
4-0 +8.00 units
11/05
PHO 1st Quarter -0.5 -103 2units(L)
PHO 1st Half -1.5 -104 1 unit(L)
PHO -2 -105 2 units(W)
2-1 loss -1.10 units
11/06
DENVER -1 -112 for 5 units(L)
LAC -2 2nd Half +102 1unit(L)
0-2 loss -6.60 units

Week 1 total 10-5 Gain +5.60

11/07 (week 2)
LAC/MIN OVER 177.5 at -108 for 2 units(L)
0-1 -2.16 units
11/08
KINGS 1st Half ML +106 2 units(L)
KINGS ML +115 1 unit(L)
KINGS ATS +2 -107 2 units(L)
0-3 loss -5.14
11/09
DALLAS 1st Quarter -1.5 -105 for 2 units(L)
DAL/PHIL 1st Quarter UNDER 50.5 -105 2 units(L)
SAS/CHA 1st Quarter OVER 45 +102 for 3 units(W)
DENVER -3 2nd Half -105 for 2 units(W)
2-2 +0.86
11/10
CLIPS/HAWKS OVER 186 -111 (W)
ROCKETS/HEAT OVER 172 -125(P)
PISTONS/SUNS UNDER 203 -121(L)
PISTONS/SUN OVER 197.5 -121 for 1 unit(W)
2-1-1 +0.79
11/11
NYK/GSW OVER 183.5 -121(L)
WAS -1 1st Quarter -109(W)
MAV/CATS UNDER 192 -103(W)
Denver ML +161(L)
2-2 -0.21
11/12
DAL/HOR UNDER 184 -118 for 2 units(L)
0-1 -2.36
11/13
CLE/ORL UNDER 182.5 -116 for 2 units(L)
LAC/PHL 1st Half UNDER 99.5 -111 for 2 units(L)
0-2 -4.54 units

Week 2 total 5-11-(1P) Loss -12.86 units

11/14 (week 3)
GSW -5 -111 for 3 units(W)
NYK 1st Half ML +129 for 2 units(W)
2-0 +5.58 units
11/15
DALLAS -7 -103 for 2 units(L)
Clips -1 1st Quarter -105 for 2 units(W)
JAZZ/KINGS 2nd Half Over 94.5 -113 for 2 units(W)
KINGS ML 2nd Half -196 to win 1 unit(W)
BUCKS ML 2nd Half +103 for 2 units(L)
3-2 +0.94 units
11/16
INDIANA -7.5 -110 for 3 units(L)
NYK/LAL OVER 180 -108 for 2 units(W)
1-1 -1.30 units
11/17
HOU/SAS OVER 176 -105 for 1 unit(*off load L)
WASHINGTON +1.5 1st Quarter -112 for 2 units(W)
HOU/SAS UNDER 177.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
2-1 +1.95 units
11/18
SEA -3 at -110 for 4 units(W)
CHI/SEA UNDER 198.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)
2-0 +6.00 units
11/19
DET/DAL OVER 185 -105 for 2 units(W)
DET/DAL 1st Half OVER 91.5 -110 for 2 units(W)
WAS/NJN 1st Half Over 97.5 +103 for 1 unit(L)
WAS/NJN 2nd Half Under 103.5 +101 for 2 units(W)
CLE/PHL 2nd Half Over 102.5 -115 for 1 unit(W)
CATS/WOLVES 2nd Half Under 94 -110 for 1 unit(L)
MEM/UTH 2nd Half Under 87.5 -108 for 1 unit(W)
5-2 +5.92 units
11/20
LAKERS -4 at 105 for 2 units(L)
CHI/LAL UNDER 190 +100 for 1 unit(W)
CHI 2nd Half +4.5 -105 for 2 units(W)
2-1 +0.90 units

Week 3 total 15-7 Gain +19.99 units

11/21 (week 4)
SPURS -5.5 -113 for 1 unit(L)
MIL/UTA 1st Quarter UNDER 47 -111(W)
MIL/UTA 1st Half UNDER 93 -120(P)
MIL/UTA UNDER 185 -117(W)
2-1-1 +0.87 units
11/22
DEN/WAS OVER 195.5 -107 for 2 units(W)
BOS/CAV 1st Quarter OVER 51.5 -112 for 1 unit(W)
BOS/CAV 1st Half OVER 102 -120 for 1 unit(W)
DEN +2 1st Half +102 for 1 unit(W)
4-0 +5.02 units
11/23
TOR/LAC UNDER 203.5 -110 for 3 units(W)
SAS/GSW 2nd Half OVER 92.5 -122 for 2 units(W)
2-0 +5.00 units
11/24
CLE +3.5 -105 for 1 unit(L)
CLE/IND UNDER 200.5 for -127 for 2 units(W)
1-1 +0.95 units
11/25
DAL/MIA OVER 192 -120 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit
11/26
NYK +1 for -105 for 1 unit(W)
NOH/SEA OVER 191 -118 for 2 units(W)
2-0 +3.00 units
11/27
BLAZERS +3.5 -103 for 1 unit(W)
POR/ATL UNDER 186 -109 for 1 unit(W)
POR/ATL UNDER 187 -105 for 3 units(W)
3-0 +5.00 units

Week 4 total 15-2-(1P) Gain +20.84 units

Bounced backed nicely from the 2nd week drought.
I like to thank BetCrimes for posting his O/U & ATS tracking.
Also look for Batis to surge...quiet before the storm.
On to Week 5. Best of luck everybody.

The Hawks are home favorites today for the first time this season and they have been ATS money, but that was with getting good points as dogs.
I understand this is a revenge spot off a close road loss for Hawks and Blazers have little going for them. They even had to send Patterson home.
Even so the two SU wins are little suspect, little too close to give Portland +3.5 points. I like to see Portland dig deep and remember Blazer has beat the Hawks in 8 straight meetings.

BLAZERS +3.5 -103 for 1 unit(W)

Blazers have been slumping, 1-3 in this road trip and given up 100+ points in all 3 losses and coming off 2 below average scoring. Hawks also had very poor scoring, though winning against Indiana. Looks like Over is the play in Atlanta........ I'm going against the grain. Blazers need the big stop to take control and Hawks may help matters by being too excited.

POR/ATL UNDER 186 -109 for 1 unit(W)

Watch the lines, I might return to add some modified plays or increase my units.

Thinking of pulling a NBA double header at Staples. Maybe add another, near by Staples, dining review. Have you seen "Training Day" Denzel Washington & Ethan Hawke? Do you remember the scene where Denzel's character Alonzo meets the 3 wisemen at a restaurant? Well, that is the Pacific Dining Car
Los Angeles landmark since 1921 famous for their thick, juicy steaks cooked over a mesquite fire. Remember Alonzo introduces Hoyt (Ethan Hawke) to the wisemen then tells him "Go get yourself a baseball steak" that's a a two-inch-thick cut of top sirloin. But I recommend the Delmonico (bone-in New York strip) or the buttery filet mignon.

If that's too heavy after Thanksgiving, and if my girl decides to join me, it'll more likely be The Water Grill, it's one of the top Los Angeles Sea Food restaurant in downtown and really tough to get a good table.

Sorry everyone, getting out to downtown and watching the Total move my way I had to hit it for more, but you guys reading will not make in time.

POR/ATL UNDER 187 -105 for 3 units(W)

I'll do a weekly wrap up and bring the record up to speed.
I was deadly this week.

Sixers at Knicks for Saturday morning match up (09:35 PST)
Do some of you think NYK +1 is a weak line? If you do, keep in mind Knicks have taken 8 out of last 10 match ups and Sixers are sick, I mean they have the flu and they're hurting. Who has the flu? Deng Gai, Allen Iverson, James Thomas and Chris Webber. Their not all going to be out of the game, but this might take something out of them. Take a small early position and watch the line.

NYK +1 for -105 for 1 unit(W)
Big public fade. I heard the voices of masses cry out and than there was silence.

Hornets at Sonics will follow the game in New York. This game I like to see Sonics break the century mark back at home. Ray Allen was off against the Lakers, or maybe Kobe was too hot, but I like to see a bounce back effort from Ray and the Sonics on the offensive side after giving up 8 point lead in the half. Hornets played a grinding game against the T-Wolves and came out with the win. With confidence growing and attacks getting aggressive I expect Hornets scoring to improve from their last 84 points. Hornets have scored into the +90's with good frequency on the road.

NOH/SEA OVER 191 -118 for 2 units(W)

Same old song and dance. Keep on Rockin'
2-0 +3.00 units

Having a good week and a very nice Thanksgiving with the family.

There are too much distraction to get a good read, although I am aware of few nice looking games....like POR/ORL Over 172, HOU/MEM Under 174,
Grizz -5.5, Hawks +12, DAL PK, I'm not ready to take any position too easily.
Sure some of these will hit, maybe more than less.

I take a small spot on a declining total that may have fell too low.

DAL/MIA OVER 192 -120 for 1 unit(W)

Another Good one, by 1 point.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Thanksgiving play is Cleveland at Indiana.
The marquee match up is LBJ vs Ron Artest, this should be good.
I see players on Pacers -3.5 and this is normally a good spot, but Cavs didn't show any signs of weakening, they dominated 16pts to 7pts fast break,
46pts to 24pts in the paint, out shot and only lost the rebound by a difference of 1 offensive board. The biggest lead was 23. If Cavs show signs of deteriorating it'll most likely happen on a road game, but my theory is Cavs with momentum plus +3.5 points maybe too much for Indy even at home. Line is not doing much now.
What caught my attention here is the difference of shot attempts between the two teams.
Pacers averages an low number reflecting their deliberate style and they do not allow much scoring at home. Cavs with much higher number I don't think they're concerned with offense, but more so with opponents scoring on the road. Both losses came on the road with opponents breaking the century mark.
So Cavs make defensive adjustments and Pacers tighten up their's, the game stays close and stays below 200.

I will go with.

CLE +3.5 -105 for 1 unit(L)
CLE/IND UNDER 200.5 for -127 for 2 units(W)
(bought the points from 199. This price has changed to -134 as I write.)

I was not even close with Cleveland, but O/U....MONEY.
1-1 +0.95 units

NBA filled evening I could go crazy like a kid in a candy store, but I'm only taking one game.

Toronto Raptors at L.A. Clippers
Clips are the new star of Los Angeles, new found Clipper fans are crawling out from under the rocks. Yes they are good and it doesn't look like a November wonder. Raptors come to town on the second of back to back losing to the Suns, but they were in that game with 4:14 to go. Toronto 11-8 all time, 4-5 last 9 which may not mean much with Clipper looking nothing like last year. Will Clips try to run today with Toronto's second leg? That might be easier said than done with athletic Bosh down at the post. I think Clips play defensive minded and come down from the 113 point scoring burst against GSW. Raptors may bring up the score from 82-90(L) Suns, but may not go over 100. Total projection will not go 203.

TOR/LAC UNDER 203.5 -110 for 3 units(W) *103-100

Clips shooting 61% and Raps are outscoring them. This Under is in trouble.
Never know though, high shooting percentage can come down quick.

I am adding Over in different game.
SAS/GSW 2nd Half OVER 92.5 -122 for 2 units(W)

Was that game in Los Angeles Clutch or what!
2-0 +5.00 units

Picks are starting to go my way, not on fire, but making progress.
What's working? Well, the line makers are getting hot and that means the public gets burned. That's the big picture for ATS.
As for Totals, low looking games are going Under and vice versa.

Tuesday selection
When games are played at this level there are constant adjustments being made to reach the optimum balance of offense and defense. Washington started by showing some defense in early November, but slowly the score climbed and peaked with Seattle (137-96 on 11/11) from there it moved back down to last game against NJ (83-89 on 11/19 the line makers projected high scoring game here with O/U at 201.5)
Denver also not cracking the century mark in all but 3 games so far and last time was 11/13 against the Timberwolves. Since that game 80, 91, 95, 99, looks like it's on the climb. Yes the Nuggets are woeful on the road, but porous too and they must be thinking how to turn on their offense on the road.
The books do not have a good read on this game, I saw more than the normal variances between the books in the opening line.

DEN/WAS OVER 195.5 -107 for 2 units(W)

I hesitated on my second pick and missed the better price.
Boston at Cleveland looks like a Cav winner, but the C's have played them well at Cleveland. Matter of fact Celtics have won 7 out of 9 trips to the state of Ohio. But the match up sure looks good for the Cavs, West is not fast enough for Jones and Snow will set up LBJ and Hughes on the attack.
Blount will have his hands full with Gooden at Power Forward, Gooden loves to play Boston. Blount is shooting well and he will need all the fire power to fight Gooden with good offense. Big Z in the middle, he is one of the top scoring centers in the East. LaFrentz and Blount will need to put the ball in open court and play transition ball, make the Big Z run. Cavs also have Marshall scoring big off the bench.

BOS/CAV 1st Quarter OVER 51.5 -112 for 1 unit(W)
BOS/CAV 1st Half OVER 102 -120 for 1 unit(W)
I would take Over 203 or 203.5, but limiting my plays today.

This one is a gut play with so many loving the Wizards back home.
DEN +2 1st Half +102 for 1 unit(W)

Nothing but "W"s. Totals are starting to cash.
4-0 +5.02 units

San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings.
I'm keeping this one light. I'm don't like going against a team losing SU, but covering ATS on previous match. Kings did control most of the game only to have Sonics come back into the game. Kings are lacking personal to close out these game and Sonics are rising right now.

Kings come home to face the Spurs. San Antonio is too tough of a team to meet on the 2nd leg of back to back (road/home) sequence.

SPURS -5.5 -113 for 1 unit(L)

I like the Bucks and Jazz to take this game UNDER.
I feel the NBA game is easier to slow it down than speed it up and if you don't have the weapons to put up the number, ugly it up.
1 unit each.

MIL/UTA 1st Quarter UNDER 47 -111(W)
MIL/UTA 1st Half UNDER 93 -120(P)
MIL/UTA UNDER 185 -117(W)

Back door moose job, Mike Bibby 3 pointer with 17 seconds left in the game. Kings lose SU in second of back to back, but take both wins ATS.
These line makers are good.
I did take down the UNDERS though.
2-1-1 +0.87 units

Don't over analyze today.
I know, Bulls at Lakers is bouncing, but ever so small in both directions.
West Coast Gauntlet Go Baby Go.
Do not mistake knowledge for wisdom (wow, that sounds profound)

LAKERS -4 at 105 for 2 units(L)

About an hour to go before game time at Staples Center.
If you go to Staples event, or Dodgers Stadium, you might want to try Phillipe The Original, at the south/east side of Chinatown, and grab the french dip sandwiches. It's bang for your buck kind of place, good food and L.A. landmark.

Adding this Total Play.
CHI/LAL UNDER 190 +100 for 1 unit(W) *189 by 1

This is great I could get Bulls +4.5 and Bulls lead the lakers by 2 so I get +6.5 for the game. Easy choice.

CHI 2nd Half +4.5 -105 for 2 units(W)

What's the matter with Los Angeles Lakers? Letting the road worn Bulls come back in the 4th like that on home turf. Seem like I saw a lot of Koby putting up numbers and everyone else not doing anything last Season, they lost most of those games. If they're going to stay the same that's OK we'll make money.
That middle was looking good at middle of 4th quarter, but I'm sure glad I took the Bulls for 2nd Half. That Under 190 was "On the Edge of you seat" type pick. 2 attempts by the Lakers with score at 189. Da Bulls.
2-1 +0.90 units
I'll be back.

I like this spot with Detroit at Dallas. No not Dallas ATS or ML, Total with recent low scoring games on both sides everybody loves the Under.
So much anticipation pushed the opening line down from 187 to 185 (just notched up to 185.5) Mavs are defensive minded with Little General at the helm, but they have been so offensive oriented for so long they can explode on any given game. Dirk loves to score and sometimes it's contagious. And why this spot?
I think Mavs are a team that rises to the occasion, 8-0 Detroit making a visit is a occasion.
Detroit can play ugly ball with the best of defensive team, but what makes this team dangerous is their improved offense.
These two teams trend Over and match up very well.
This Saturday game at the American Airlines Center should be a good one.

DET/DAL OVER 185 -105 for 2 units(W)
DET/DAL 1st Half OVER 91.5 -110 for 2 units(W)
Was not even close. Mavs rises against Pistons.

Another interesting match up is Washington at New Jersey. I just don't see these teams matching up in respective strength and weakness.
My translation is these teams will run up the score.

WAS/NJN 1st Half Over 97.5 +103 for 1 unit(L)
*I might hit this again if it moves my way.
This was a crazy line O/U 200+ for the game?
2nd Half offered 103.5? That's crazy I took the Under.
I not sure what the Books are thinking here.

WAS/NJN 2nd Half Under 103.5 +101 for 2 units(W)

CLE/PHL this one is going to be a high score and the number is on target.
Still went with the Over.
CLE/PHL 2nd Half Over 102.5 -115 for 1 unit(W)

And one more.
CATS/WOLVES 2nd Half Under 94 -110 for 1 unit(L)

Sorry these 2nd Half plays are already under way.
I couldn't post them in time.

OK I'm back. Tracking MEM/UTH playing low scoring game.
Few minutes left in 1st Half. I try to put this one in before the window closes.
MEM/UTH 2nd Half Under 87.5 -108 for 1 unit(W)
This would of been the wrong selection last season as the 2nd Half plays usually swung the other way. I mean look at 1st half Memphis at Jazz scoring 78, the full game Total is 174.5 (-78 = 96.5) 9.5 point difference with 2nd half Total placement.
Maybe the Book is looking for Over takers, but they don't want the players to hit the middle.

Good NBA Saturday. I usually don't play this many games and I'm drained from tracking all of them.

See you players on Sunday.
5-2 +5.92 units

You guys reading my posts, I could almost hear your voices "Clutch, your all over the board and the analysis is not reflecting the games."
I hear ya. Keep in mind I've been around the block and I'm nowhere close to throwing in the towel. I'm going to play through it.

Here's a Old School capping selection for today.
Sonics didn't look Super 2 games ago. How much can change in that short span? Sonics played their best game this season at Boston and there's more room to get better. Specifically their defense needs to improve.
This team was challenged by Weiss, he read the stats to his team - defensive field goal percentage, last in league most points scored against, rebounding percentage - all areas Sonics excelled last season. They still allowed 51.9% shooting to Boston, but contained it to the secondary players, Davis and Pierce, for 43 combined points. On the offense Sonics was solid with 50.6% shooting and dominant 17 offensive boards, Collison was on terror taking down 8 of 17 and 31 assists. I'm also happy to see a solidified starting lineup of Collison at power forward and rookie Johan Petro at center alongside guards Luke Ridnourand Ray Allen and small forward Rashard Lewis.
Bulls are defensive minded after holding their opponents to .422 shooting last season they are currently 7th holding opponents to .431 shooting and .290 from 3 point range (4th best) and Sweetney is a monster.
Chicago has dropped 7 of the last 12 meetings against Seattle including 7 straight at United Center. Bulls last win did come at Key Arena last season.
Rolling with the Sonics fading Bulls West Coast Gauntlet.


SEA -3 at -110 for 4 units(W)
CHI/SEA UNDER 198.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)

Just what the doctor ordered. Take 2 wins and call him in the morning for Saturday's winner.
2-0 +6.00 units

Overnight line for Thursday.
Not a big card, but interesting lines.
I'm sure this will be another public darling.

HOU/SAS OVER 176 -105 for 1 unit(*L)

Houston number goes Under at home, when on the road it's another story.
Besides Spurs improved their perimeter shooting and still driving inside.
I'm not predicting an shootout, somewhere between 180~188 with good support from the bench and good number at the line should accomplish this.
Single unit play because this will surely be a public play and that was the case with Pacers on Wednesday.

It's 14:00 PST.
T-Wolves tough at home, but I don't see them as the contenders they once were. Wizards on the other hand seems to be the team on the rise. They will need to jump ahead early or the Wolves will grind them down.
WASHINGTON +1.5 1st Quarter -112 for 2 units(W)

Almost game time for Rockets and Spurs. I'm not exactly looking to middle the total, but will off load the Public play. I could get lucky....It'll have to be very lucky.
HOU/SAS UNDER 177.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Sorry to Off-Load the Total play before the game, but I just got that sinking feeling the public was in for a slaughter. I wasn't fully convinced last night and I couldn't resist 177.5 with money on the Over side.
2-1 +1.95 units

I was planning to wait, but this game I see two teams heading in different direction and I know the line is going to move away, I already see many -8.
The game is Pacers at Bobcats. The Cats got beat on the backboard against Magic, center Jake Voskuhl went down 32 seconds into the 4th with a left ankle sprain. He would not return to the game on the 1st leg of back to back and when they get home it's not going to get any easier with the Pacers, the Pacers should be at close to full strength for the Bobcats game with Scot Pollard and David Harrison both available for the first time giving the team two true centers. Indy and Cats have had some close games in the past, but this one Pacers look to pull away and close it out. I think Pacers will go wire to wire.

INDIANA -7.5 -110 for 3 units(L)
How did this game go so bad. I think the public got hit here.

I think Lakers hit their low, that last game on the road against Grizzlies was just crushing. Here comes NY Knicks, feeling little better about themselves, but this ain't no short handed Jazz team, it's the embarrassed Lakers that need to show something, especially in their house. No matter where these teams are in the standing your sure to get a good show.

NYK/LAL OVER 180 -108 for 2 units(W)
So what did I learn today? It's good to be against the public.
I didn't understand why the Under was being favored, it even went down to 179.

1-1 -1.30 units

Today I will go against the public perception again.

Denver at Dallas.
This Mav's team is much better than what the record shows.
Denver is not there yet and this would be a good spot for Dallas to make a strong showing. I also like the Under here, but will stay on side only.

DALLAS -7 -103 for 2 units(L)

Added late game.
Clips -1 1st Quarter -105 for 2 units(W)

JAZZ/KINGS 2nd Half Over 94.5 -113 for 2 units(W)

KINGS ML 2nd Half -196 to win 1 unit(W)

BUCKS ML 2nd Half +103 for 2 units(L)

3-2 +0.94 units

I'll take one overnight line.

Chicago at Golden State.
The Bulls West Coast swing has been money for awhile. If you don't know what I'm talking about the Bulls sport 1-38 record since the 1998 Michael Jordan years on this ThanksGiving road trip.
Top it off this is a big revenge match of the 85-84 loss in Chicago, remeber there was a contact at the end of the game with Chandler defending the last basket by Richardson, bad call "No Foul" costing Warriors the game.
coach Mike Montgomery was fined $25,000 and Richardson $20,000 for not leaving the court in a timely fashion.
Golden State will be ready to take this game.

GSW -5 -111 for 3 units(W)
Warriors were gold today.

My slump seem evident with the improvement in line with backers not fearing the Bull ghosts of the Thanksgiving past.

I'm adding a rule breaking pick with NY playing back to back on the road, but against a limping Jazz. I will reason with Knicks momentum and fairly rested line up. They have been leading in early going this road trip.

NYK 1st Half ML +129 for 2 units(W)
1 point win. I'll take it.

Aced it today. Money Line Dog and against the public ATS.
Just when you thought it was safe to fade my plays....Sorry Faders.
2-0 +5.58 units

In making some adjustments I decided to take the late line instead.

Yes, another low number, actually 181.5 I bought the point, looking for my defensive game to catch up.
CLE/ORL UNDER 182.5 -116 for 2 units(L)

This Clippers team on the road can muscle itself if the shooting gets cool and see a slight edge with the Half.
LAC/PHL 1st Half UNDER 99.5 -111 for 2 units(L)

Can't get any breaks. Looks like consistant losers.
0-2 -4.54 units

I hope everyone is having a nice Saturday.
Let's take a look at what's happening in Oklahoma City where the Mavericks will challenge the Hornets for the inside game. The only game where Hornets allowed over 100+ points this season was 11/2 against Cavs, mainly due to LeBrons 31 point performance and it looked as they were caught off guard in the 1st quarter, other games their defense kicked in to bring down their opponents.
Dallas was not playing their defensive game preached by the Little General and AJ expressed his anger after the loss to Sixers, regardless of Dirks early exit, and the Mavs responded against the Cats.
Todays match up have been dominated by Dallas and Hornets will be targeting a win against the Back to back schedule for Mavs. Both teams will try to do it with their Defense.

DAL/HOR UNDER 184 -118 for 2 units(L)

It was a inside game, offense attacking the inside with not much fast breaks, but shot the hell out the basket.
Looks like the saturation point for Under hit it's peak.
I can't believe Dallas had so much legs left on the 2nd of back to back.
But closing line NOH +7.5 was just enough to take DAL down ATS.
In times of slump money management becomes crucial, my plays are 1% single unit, but the main thing is gains.
At the end of the day, week, month, season, Gains nothing else.
So the game goes on.

I have some interest in the late game tomorrow with Knicks visiting Golden State Warriors. Knicks have produced some low scoring games, but 184.5 or 92.25 x 2 seems very reachable at Arena in Oakland.

I'll take OVER 183.5 -121(L)
When your rooting for OT it's usually a lost game.

Adding this play with Seattle Supersonics at Washington Wizards aka Bullets.
The Washington team I still consider Bullets more than Wizards.
I like Washington today to open up fast before Sonics are in a rhythm.

WAS -1 1st Quarter -109(W)
Washington toyed with Seattle today. This should of been the heavy game of the day with quarter, half and game.

Mavericks at Charlotte with Dirk questionable as game time decision and Devin Harris probable with sprained left ankle Dallas might be in for a tough battle.
Even with Mavs working short handed one thing should change from the last Sixers game. No easy baskets and fast breaks will not be as frequent.

MAV/CATS UNDER 192 -103(W)
There you go, thats Maverick defense with Dirk in there to secure the game.
I'd figured he'd be in there today, but went with the higher percentage play.

Let's add Denver ML +161(L) at the Arena. That's just not right with Kings off key, maybe they are due, maybe they'll hit their shots, maybe they'll control the boards.....That's too many maybe's.

Denver got beat bad. I have to stay off the losing end of blow outs.


2-2 -0.21

My Overnight position for Thursday.

CLIPS/HAWKS OVER 186 -111 (W)
ROCKETS/HEAT OVER 172 -125(P) Gary Payton's fault for 1 missed FT.
PISTONS/SUNS UNDER 203 -121(L)

single unit positions and wait for day light.

Totals have moved. I'm staying on my Totals, no changes.
Yes, I could take a middle, but at single unit each I will stay on the attack plan from one direction. No chases tonight. I'll consider taking the early line as the games progress.

I was going to stay off the middle, but I know a opportunity when I see one and this one has a good chance of taking two birds with one stone.

PISTONS/SUN OVER 197.5 -121 for 1 unit(W)
Now if the late game falls between 197 ~ 203

Good thing I took the late Over.
2-1-1 +0.79

Full card this Wednesday. Looking to turn things around and here are my takes, all First Quarter plays.

DALLAS 1st Quarter -1.5 -105 for 2 units(L)
DAL/PHIL 1st Quarter UNDER 50.5 -105 2 units(L)

SAN ANTONIO/CHARLOTTE 1st Quarter OVER 45 +102 for 3 units(W)

I may return to play the late games or 2nd halfs.

DENVER -3 2nd Half -105 for 2 units(W)

Thank you Denver for 4th quarter surge, saved my day.

2-2 +0.86

Today I will go with Sacramento Kings to take this game SU at Arco Arena.
Kings are surging at all level and Pistons have yet to have strong showing on the road.

KINGS 1st Half ML +106 2 units(L)
KINGS ML +115 1 unit(L)
KINGS ATS +2 -107 2 units(L)

This game is dust. I'm in badly need for a turn around. I passed the Orlando pick to take this loser.

0-3 -5.14

New week, new direction. Keeping myself in check I will return to my methodical style of NBA handicapping.

Again I will take my position on a second meeting of recent match up,
Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota TimberWolves.
I watched the opening O/U 179.5 driven down to 177.5, that looked low so I took a Over position and now it's climbed back up to 180.
Clips have long established themselves as a Under team and the Wolves have been Under for past 2 seasons, but as these trends develop the Linemakers will adjust in hopes of getting the numbers closer to 50% and usually in this attempt the early lines will over adjust.
I think this is the case with this game. I see this game between 180~185 and the line is luring Under. Clips have improved their offense and Wolves have solid record against them (12-4 last season) It should be a tight game with both teams hitting 90 points.

LAC/MIN OVER 177.5 at -108 for 2 units(L)

T-Wolves defense was too much in the 3rd quarter. This one just cleared 170

NBA Week 1 Wrap Up

11/1 DAL/PHO UNDER 218 at -116 for 2 units (L) -2.32
0-1 -2.32

11/2 IND -5 at -110 for 2 units (W) +2.00
IND/ORL UNDER 189 at -109 for 2 units (W) +2.00
SAC/HOU UNDER 192 at -119 for 1 unit (W) +1.00
3-0 +5.00

11/3 PHO +4 at -116 for 3 units (W) +3.00
PHO ML at +148 for 1 unit (W) +1.48
2-0 +4.48

11/4 MEM -2.5 at -104 for 1 unit (W) +1.00
MEM -1 1st Quarter at -105 for 2 units (W) +2.00
DEN -3 1st Quarter at -105 for 2 units (W) +2.00
DEN -6 1st Half at -105 for 3 units (W) +3.00
4-0 +8.00

11/5 LAC -2 2nd Half at +102 for 1 unit (L) -1.00
PHO -0.5 1st Quarter at -103 for 2 units (L) -2.06
PHO -1.5 1st Half at -104 for 1 unit (L) -1.04
PHO -2 at -105 for 2 units (W) +2.00
1-3 -2.10

11/6 DEN -1 at -112 for 5 units (L) -5.60

0-1 -5.60

Week 1 10-5 Gain +5.60

Looking back at first week of NBA I may have pushed too much at the end and Batis was right, I should of kept the play in 1-2-3 unit range for single position.
I also fell in love with ATS plays and neglected the Totals, which is actually my strength.
Could of, would of, should of been a monster week.
I'll mix it up fo shizzle my nizzle.

Taking the Starters rested Clips in the Second Half of the Late Game Saturday Night.

LAC -2 2nd Half +102 1unit(L)
What a disappointment. Clips go cold in the 4th qt and allow the Wolves back in the game. Clips takes the coin flip win in OT, but not enough to cover ATS.
KG is a stud. Minny was losing the game in every way, inside, outside, rebound and yet they find the will to come back.


My Overnight position for Sunday. It was the eve before the revenge.
Look for the Nuggets to excel their vertical game at Staples Center.

DENVER -1 -112 for 5 units(L)

I return to find money is free flowing into Lakers and in a rare move the line has moved against me to go to PICK for this game.
You can second guess me, I'm not as hot as I was 2 days ago....Maybe this is the so called "Trap"
For those with these concerns There are no Traps.
Lakers are a big market team in a deep pocket city playing on a Sunday with intoxicated football betters. I should of thought about that last night.
This Nuggets team with good game plan has big advantage on the boards, that should equal high percentage scoring opportunity. I'm tempted to press my wager, but this is big as I will place and must practice discipline.

That was humbling. Lakers crushed the Nuggets wire to wire beating them on the board.....I would not of guessed Chris Mihm would cause so much damage in the post.
Taking my largest single position in one sided loss.
I will look ahead as the whole week was positive.

It's been a busy Saturday.
Utah Jazz spoils the anticipated 2-0 start for the Warriors last night, but what I learned from that game is the difference a good point guard makes or takes away from a team. I really think missing Baron Davis gave Jazz the edge.
OK, Okur is surging, is he going to carry the Jazz? Not with flashes of excellence it has to be consistant. It'll be Matrix doing the damage on this back to back night in Salt Lake City.

PHO 1st Quarter -0.5 -103 2units(L)
PHO 1st Half -1.5 -104 1 unit(L)
PHO -2 -105 2 units(W)

So it wasn't wire to wire, but I hit the 2nd half -2.5 before the line turned -3 at -111 for 2 units turning a small profit.
I'm not going to record the off post win so blog records a loss today.
2-1 loss -1.10 units

I be back with vengeance.

Pinnacle will go under maintenance from 22:00PST to 00:00PST.

I will take a early spot on Memphis -2.5 at -104 (W) [*single unit] and watch the line for a bit.

The line has moved away. These two teams met once in preseason, 10/24 at FedEx Forum 67-65 WNBA like score with Pat Garrity buzzer beater lifting the Magics on a cold, cold, shooting night.
Since that night one thing remains the same and I know the Magics know they lucked out when getting beat 26 to 18 in the paint, 2 to 6 fast break (pathetic fast breaks for both teams) and the Magics continue to give up the inside making them one dementional outside shooting team.
I need to see more out of this Orlando team or I will continue to fade this team.

I like the game breakdown. Look for Grizz to establish early inside outside game.

MEM 1st Quarter -1 at -105 for 2 units (W)

Second, Another breakdown selection with Portland at Denver.
Like I said with the Lakers game analysis last night, Denver's loss at home opener was their own doing. These Nuggets are in need of direction to close out the game and they'll have it tonight. I feel a blow out coming, but I'll take the early game with Denver itching to explode.

DEN 1st Quarter -3 at -105 for 2 units (W)
DEN 1st Half -6 at -105 for 3 units(W)

Sorry, I think the prices have moved.
For those of us about to Rock, I salute you.

NBA FANTASTIC !
Clutch is on a roll.
4-0 +8.00 units *Perfecto for the third day.

I also like to add on Memphis game. Although Grizz takes the ATS win I have reconsidered fading Magic in future game based on what they showed.
40 pts in the paint vs 24 pts for Memphis and 15 fast break pts over 14 for
Grizz.

We'll try to keep rolling with B-Ball.

Suns at Lakers
Did you see Lakers pull one out in Denver? Or should I say Koby pulling it out.
With Anthony and Camby out on foul and with all the turnovers, something like 19 leading to 22 Denver fast break points and lost in the paint, I think the Nuggets blew this Home Opener.
Now Lakers go home to meet the rested Suns at home. You know the Suns have a shorter travel than Lakers returning from Denver. Regardless of non game factors Suns will give Lakers trouble tomorrow, especially if they handle the ball like they did against the Nuggets. Suns still play best in transition and I see them gunning out of the gate at Staples Center.

PHO +4 at -116 for 3 units (W) *damn, the lines moved to +3.5 as I write.

PHO ML +148 for 1 unit (W) *This is now +135

The way Joel Meyers (play-by-play) and Mychal Thompson (color analyst) was going on and on about Lakers on the pre-game show you think these guys are touts....Amare's loss is a big blow, JJ leaving caught the team off guard,
Nash can't carry the team, Than, Smush is super, Brown has talent, Koby's hot, Lamar will come back....
These guys are announcers not handicappers. Beware of getting suckered into these pre-game shows they always favor the home team.
Now they're going to talk about how great Koby, Lamar and Smush played in the losing cause. If you can't contain Suns scoring you're playing Suns game. I should of noted Lakers on back to back game was a solid fade last year and that trend may continue.
2-0 +4.48 units *Perfect for two days.

I was robbed in the NBA Opener, but have not lost my confidence in my early season observation.

This is what I have in mind for day 2 of NBA.

Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic.
Now everyone should know Grant Hill is out, 3~6 weeks, and Head Coach
Brian Hill is shifting to defensive focus. Offense will be relied on Steve Francis and Dwight Howard. Well, preseason clue says Francis is not up to speed yet with 12 PPG 2.50 RPG and 6.3 APG, all below his norm. Howard will develop as the season goes on, but he has yet to take on the role to carry the offense and he need to find the open man. He can create problems in the post for his opposition. I also see this Magic team struggling to score in the paint and/or getting beat in fast break points, signs of disoriented team play.

Pacers arrive with high expectations. I like the scheme they showed in preseason and Magics weakness is the Pacers strength. Control the inside, control the ball with deliberate plays and look for fast break chances.

IND -5 at -110 for 2 units (W) *This line is now -6.5 or -7

IND/ORL UNDER 189 at -109 for 2 units (W)

Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets.
Rockets are solid at Toyota Center this preseason with a perfect record including the game in Laredo, Texas. What stands out is the Rockets shutting out the opposition at home, 84-80 against Orlando, 75-71 against Washington, 88-80 against Utah, (93-85 against Seattle in Laredo) The Rockets have not given up 100 points to any team in preseason, most allowed was 91 against 76ers in Wachovia Center 10/11, and they have not allowed over 80 points at Toyota Center.
Back to back game for the Kings on the road. After getting schooled by the Hornets how will these Kings play?

They will play UNDER 192 at -119 for 1 unit (W)

My name is Clutch and I cap Baskets.
I've published some of today's picks in public forum, but I published them all in my blog.
Got the moose off my back from last night and we're back on track with some winners.
3-0 +5.00 units