Wednesday, January 30, 2008

NBA Thursday

0-2 last selection YTD 88-56 +49.96 units

Having a rough patch need to get back on track.

Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons
Lakers didn't deserve that last ATS win against Knicks and it'll hold true against Pistons.

DETROIT -7.5 at -104 for 2 units(L)

0-1 -2.08 units

NBA Wednesday

0-1 last selection 88-54-2 +51.98 units

Close doesn't cut it in zero sum game. Going for the bounce back tonight.

Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Hornets
Warriors don't get this many points, but it shows me odds makers were way off in their first assessment in Jan. 4th when Warriors dropped SU being -2.5 fav's at home. That was only the start of Bees January run. Warriors made a valiant effort rally against Rockets at Houston, but fell short and they have failed to cover 4 in a row. Hornets line takes a late day drop back to opening spot and taking Hornets to roll

HORNETS -8.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

Charlotte Bobcats at Sacramento Kings
Kings at Arco is no joke and they have been able to cover against some of the best in NBA, but coming off a SU win no cover in a spot that has been money.

BOBCATS +8 at +106 for 1 unit(L)

0-2 -2.02 units

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

NBA Tuesday

0-1 last selection 88-53-2 +53.00 units

Great to hear from Batis. The plays are still being blogged to keep in touch with my far reach friends. Hope everything is well and your keeping up with NBA.

This is what I'm on tonight. Have been bit lazy in not posting accurate price, but -110 is a fair market price and I need to catch up on Year To Date record. I'm also not playing on daily basis or playing as many multiple games my days are busier.
Backing the Knicks doing the West Coast swing. Lakers are in the hunt and Kobe can light it up on any given night, but New York is short on believers and surge is little noticed.

NEW YORK KNICKS +9.5 at -102 for 1 unit(L)

This is heartbreak hotel. 1 basket away and NY missed the lay up and we missed the back door cover, actually we we're in the black for most of that game.

0-1 -1.02 units

Friday, January 25, 2008

NBA Friday

1-1 last selection 88-52-2 +54.10 units

Sup Alphonse? Like Sonics at home still getting points after 2 consecutive ATS cover. The line has inflated to 3 and this one might go down outright.

SUPERSONICS +3 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.10 units

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

NBA Wednesday

0-1 last selection 87-51-2 +54.30 units

Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics. This game comes after 3 big outputs from Boston, 100 - 116 - 109 points with last 2 games shooting 58.9% then 54.7%, naturally taking the usual low looking total easily Over. Celtics have the defense to alter shots and should be no different for Raptors. Toronto is aware of Boston's surging offense and their focus will be on the stops.

TORONTO/BOSTON UNDER 185 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

Late game is Houston at Seattle. Good revenge spot for Sonics at home getting points. They covered the first match up in Houston and showed energy. This line has moved 0.5 points increasing the spread.

SUPERSONICS +6 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 -0.10 units

Sunday, January 20, 2008

NBA Monday

0-1 last selection 87-50-2 +55.40 units

On this MLK Monday my regret is not moving fast enough thinking the line was going to inflate and it may still take a 0.5 point bounce back towards the opening line, but current line as of this writing is a full point below the opening 6. The game is San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Bobcats where two teams taking momentum in different direction, Spurs 1-8 ATS and Cats 7-3 ATS in January, will meet. Cats were stung in New Orleans 2 games ago, but bounced back nicely against Memphis in impressive fashion for 6 consecutive home ATS wins. San Antonio has yet to cover on the road in Janurary, last cover was Dec. 13th at Lakers. Also qualifying for top team vs bottom team situation with home team getting points after a win and cover.
San Antonio is the better team and very well may come out to take care of business, but Cats should be fired up for this game to keep it interesting, Cats after winning by 10 points or more 4-1 ATS.

BOBCATS +5.5 at -110 for 1 units(L)

0-1 -1.10 units

Friday, January 18, 2008

NBA Friday

1-0 last selection 87-49-2 +56.50 units

Sacramento Kings are getting exposed on the road. Since peaking against Dallas win Jan. 14th at Arco they were demolished in Toronto. I would normally see such a bad beating to spark a renewed drive against the next opponent, but Kings are out of their element and this is a rag tag bunch that's been thrown off keel with injection of returning starters. Detroit took a big slap in their face in New York Jan. 13th and promptly responded by taking out Toronto in their next game. Pistons back on mission will methodically pick apart the Kings at home.

PISTONS -9 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

Way off course reading the surging Kings.
0-1 -1.10 units

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

NBA Thursday

1-0 last selection 86-49-2 +55.50 units

Phoenix Suns should wake up in second go around at Staples, but this ain't no Clippers. It's the Lakers gunning them down just like in the days of Forum. Still this game comes after the big slap in the face to Suns and Lakers are poised to feel the effect of missing big man Bynum in this spot. Lakers also coming of 2 consecutive no cover wins a situation I like.

SUNS -1.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

NBA Wednesday

2-0 last selection 85-49-2 +54.50 units

Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers in rematch from Jan.13th and going with old fashion revenge play on Indy. Pacers are not all that strong in revenge situation but, they had couple of days to simmer that loss on a game they controlled the first half, covered ATS, which brings a spot 21-9 ATS on 2 days rest 3 seasons running. Warriors coming off no cover win at Minnesota second consecutive game with no cover and that is a precursor to a SU loss on second of back to back.

PACERS -1 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

NBA Tuesday

2-0 last selection YTD 83-49-2 +52.50 units

Plot thickens in NBA. Some interesting situation to marinade on tonight.

Let's start with Washington Wizards at New York Knicks.
Wizards are playing good ball taking the game in Boston after taking them at home for a double up. Now they are in MSG giving up a small -2.5 points? Lowly Knicks are going to get their ass kicked in.... I'm going to say "Not" Calling this Wizrads hangover day after Sam Adams double keg er and looking for deflated energy out of the Washington bunch. Lowly Knickerbockers are still in the Manhattan shadows, but did everyone forget they just blew out a pretty good team called Pistons at home.

KNICKS +2.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Late game with Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers.
Clippers coming off a heartbreaker loss to Dallas at the buzzard after leading most of that game. Clippers showing more determination and Suns, like Mavericks, getting more respect than what they have done lately, 1-5 ATS last 6 games, Looking for Clippers to hang in on this one. They have beat the Suns SU as a huge road dog in last meet when Clips were rolling in early season. Turn of events have taken LA through a down cycle, but the tide is changing once again. Suns are falling at Staples or at least not covering ATS.

CLIPPERS +8 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.00 units

Monday, January 14, 2008

NBA Monday

0-1 last selection YTD 81-49-2 +50.48 units

I'm going to blame US financial market for disrupting my focus on NBA. It's all good though I was one of the few who came out of 2007 market smelling like roses with no credit exposure and gains on commodities futures. I need to turn in some paper work and get back to the games. It's all about staying ahead of the curve.

Dallas is not playing well. They've had 2 consecutive flat games on the road. Seattle game where Dallas won by 20 points, +11 points ATS, is misleading because Mavs had no offense and it was a case of Dallas winning with a bad game. At Clippers without Josh Howard they trailed most of that game and a lucky 3 pointer by Stack at the buzzard to win by 1 point is definitely not impressive. Here we go today into the jaws of Arco as the heavy road favorites with 75% wagering consensus on Dallas. Yes, Howard is back and Kings have been short handed, but you know these guys bring their game in one of the most advantageous home arena in the league.
In addition Howard's mysterious departure from Los Angeles for personal reason is something to read into. It usually relates to critical family issue we'll see if his head is in the game.
The play is on line watch, but it will be a play.

KINGS +6 at +102 for 1 unit(W)

Speaking of Seattle losing to bad Dallas. Lakers are coming and we have a reverse line movement with wagering public heavy on Lakers yet line has dropped from SEA+8 to +5.5 and Lakers are without Bynum. I'm not chasing line, but as I said it before SU win no cover is a precursor to a loss. Letting Memphis back in the game at Staples and squeezing out a win. Now a road favorite on back to back against a Sonics squad coming off a loss to a bad playing team, even if they were Dallas. No play for us, but we will advise to stay off the Lakers.

Told ya!

Adding Portland at New Jersey.
Blazers double OT did not end their way, but it's too early to start doubting this team on the road. Truely a team which has bought into Nate McMillian's system.

PORTLAND +5 at -106 for 1 unit(W)

2-0 +2.02 units

Sunday, January 13, 2008

NBA Sunday

lost last selection 0-1 YTD 81-48-2 +51.53 units

Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors.
Late night games in NBA West is taking the high road. Warriors are heating up again back at the Oracle and players are backing Warriors, but Indy comes in with Dunleavy playing higher level eager to display what Warriors have let go. Going with a shoot out.

GSW/IND OVER 225 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

Friday, January 11, 2008

NBA Friday

Toronto at New York
It's the Raps at MSG and you know as they say when the dues are over due? I'm not talking about the Knicks, but the game Total. The Under could strike anytime I prefer to take scoring data giving me a outcome of 196 points

TOR/NYK OVER 192.5 at -109 for 1 unit(L)

That was no good.
0-1 -1.09 units

Thursday, January 10, 2008

NBA Thursday

1-0 last selection YTD 81-47-2 YTD +52.64 units

Don't see much advantage today, but watching Totals. It's about 50/50 right now and plays will most likely be posted much closer to game time.

Kept watching Wolves at Kings and kicking myself for not pulling O203. I thought it was going to be much closer.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

NBA Wednesday

0-1 last selection YTD 80-47-2 +51.62 units

I'm inclined to take Atlanta against Cleveland, but bit opposed to giving any points and not really into paying the ML price so passing this game.

Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors
Normally I would take the customary points as Toronto does not seem to be in a position to lay this many points, but I do have issue with 76ers declining shooting percentage. Raps just coming off a rare defeat while out shooting their opponent due to highest rebounding allowed this season.
The glass will not come cheap at Air Canada Center tonight. Look for another double digit road loss for Sixers.

TORONTO -8.5 at +102 for 1 unit(W)

This one is still on the watch to improve list:
Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Clippers
Magic made a effort last night, but too little too late at Sacramento. No problem second of back to back is just a short hop to L.A. with plenty of time to prepare crushing of Clippers, or is it?
Line opened at Magic -3.5 only moving -0.5 with resistance at -4 (square books have -4.5)
Not quite over the public consensus 75% threshold. Magic riding 4 consecutive ATS losses, would of been 5 covering Cats game by the hook, 3 in a row SU losses as favorite. But what I like in this situation is Clippers coming off a SU loss, ATS cover and getting points in following home game. Precursor to a SU home team win.
This would of qualified if it went to +5, but resistance was strong. You know Clippers would not cover when they couldn't take the lead after cutting the deficit.

We'll let the games come to us.

1-0 +1.02 units

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

NBA Tuesday

1-1 even money last selection YTD 80-46-2 +52.62 units

Running short on time, but taking Sonics on the road getting points. Will try to get back before game time. Try, is the key word.

SUPERSONICS +9 at +102 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.00 unit

Monday, January 07, 2008

NBA Monday

Rolling off another winner missed yesterday, but ready for Monday. YTD 79-45-2 +52.62 units

Not much tonight, but Denver at Phoenix is a match up many are spotting Suns to return to their late season form. Well I'm from the school of Missouri so they have to "Show Me" first. Going with Nuggets on 2nd of B2B away from Pepsi taking points.

NUGGETS +7 at +113 for 1 unit(L)

Situational Play:
The game has drifted too low in the first quarter and as you can see the scoring is climbing. I expect the scoring to continue through the latter half.

2nd Half SAS/GSW OVER 99.5 at +100 for 1 unit(W)

1-1 0.00

Saturday, January 05, 2008

NBA Saturday

Coming off another perfect winners. YTD 78-45-2 +51.62 units

Let's do it again.

New Orleans Hornets at Phoenix Suns
Let it score baby.

NOH/PHO OVER 208.5 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00 unit

Friday, January 04, 2008

NBA Friday

Didn't make a play, but went 3-1 in NCAA Hoops! Record stands at 76-45-2 +48.62 units

Got a position on early line at 206, but will add to this tonight.

New Orleans Hornets at Golden State Warriors.
Of course this game is going over and I expect this one to sail.

NOH/GSW OVER 208 at -104 for 2 units(W)

The games are about to begin and just wanted to put up some random thoughts.
Houston at Orlando game with Magic as -4.5 favorite seems miss leading to me. Rockets are playing very efficiently without T-Mac contrary to their past games missing the star. Magic and Howard the Beast kind of reminds me of Clips when Elton was healthy. Not yet a elite level team in my opinion. For those banking on Magic or Rockets tonight you know where I stand.
Houston has moved to +5 in closing minutes.

Over is available at -103 now.

HOUSTON +5 at -108 for 1 unit(W)

Orlando final basket to tie the game negated as time ran out and Rockets win SU!
2-0 +3.00 units

Thursday, January 03, 2008

No Play Today

1-1 last selection YTD 76-45-2 +48.62 units

Sorry fellas small card tonight got away from us. Besides NCAA card was full of games.
We shall return to the Association.

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

NBA Wednesday

2-0 last selection YTD 75-44-2 +48.60 units

New Jersey Nets at Orlando Magic
How do we slice this game? Let's start with public consensus being heavy on Magic, above the 75% threshold. Orlando Magic winners 4 game in a row 4-1 in last 5 compared to 2-3 in prior 5, looks like things are turning around for Orlando, or is it? Could it of been simple scheduling? ATS record for past 10 games are 6-4 with first 5 games going 3-2 and latter 5 games going 3-2 so more they seem to change it stays the same. I like the fact Magic is coming off a SU win no cover ATS loss which is a precursor to a weak game especially giving up higher points. Besides Orlando at home is not a sweet place with meager 7-6 ATS record. Nets are getting better, but blow out ATS losses Nets took against Wizards, Clippers, Knicks and Kings really lowered their stock. Since then they have gone 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, no cover to Washington was by 1 point margin, and suffered a big defeat to Detroit but that's excusable. Books may have been wrong, but Nets were getting +5.5 against Pistons and now they're getting +6.5 against Orlando who failed to cover -2.5 / -3 against Chicago. Magic is the stronger team, but line is inflated with chance to go higher and look to pull the trigger above +7 ATS New Jersey.
Nets better on the road 7-5 and when they get +6.5~9 points 13-4 three seasons running.

NO PLAY ON NETS
It has fallen below 75% consensus and line is holding or dropping.

Tracking another target for publishing.
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Warriors are on a fast track, but Dallas is a very imposing Under team(O/U 1-9 L10) and I am a big fan of Warriors Under on the road(O/U 6-11 Overall). Because of perceived high scoring which mentally sticks, remember 115-120 Mav's win 11/08 at Oracle arena? When was the last time Warriors failed to score over 100 points against Mavericks?(O/U 7-1 Last 8 in Dallas), makes the current number looks easily reachable. But Dallas in last 10 games have shown tightening defense compensating lower scoring. Since the Orlando game 12/17 111-108 number has steadily dropped. The last game was their best showing of balanced offense and defense never trailing the entire game. The key for Dallas tonight will be defusing Warriors high octane offense and they can do it.

GSW/DAL UNDER 213.5 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

Taking a situational total in 2nd Half: Hornets at Clippers

2nd Half TOTAL OVER 90 at +107 for 1 unit(W)

Threw away a perfect play in Nets to take a losing Total. Should of known Dallas was going to be coming after the Warriors.
1-1 +0.02 units