On the New Years Eve of 2005. Looking at today's card I feel many of these games will go Under.
PHO/CHI
GSW/HOU
SAC/DEN
BOS/LAC

Clippers are without their small forwards, Quinton Ross joins Corey Maggette on the sidelines, and today's game the Clippers are expected to show more zone defense.
I am bias on 2nd game of back to back to play Over, but more so when the opponent is an offensive team. Clippers back court has not been threatening and Brand will be the force. This game to stay under 200.

BOS/LAC UNDER 204 -118 for 2 units(W)

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Spurs at Nuggets is shaded Over, but I think it's a spot for Spurs scoring to drop. Nuggets production is mostly in the paint and that ties into their 100+ scoring output. On the rare occasion when they do not get 40+ points in the paint the score drops Under and I expect Spurs to take away the paint. Nuggets out manned in the front court.
I see this UNDER may move to my favor.

Over 193 is getting the money, at -123 about 45 min. to go, I'll sit on this and hit it before game time.

Over 193 price moved to-130, but did not move the line. Linemakers are going to hold. I was hoping for improved line.

SAS/DEN UNDER 194.5 Even Money for 1 unit(W)


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The Warriors and Rockets. I do like the Under, but I will watch the line and take the Warriors ATS in the 1 st Half.

GSW 1st Half +1.5 for -105 for 3 units(W)
GSW 1st Half ML +125 for 1 unit(W)
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Suns in Chicago playing back to back. I think Bull defense will set the tone, but I liked it at 205 (could of bought it) 1st Half Total is showing 102.5 with money on Over. I'll look to play Under if the 1st half breaks over 100.

....Score dropped off in 2nd quarter. I'll pass the 2nd Half. Now 202 looks like gold.

.....Wow, OT sends this game Over 202. I got lucky on this pass.
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That's the way to close out 2005.
4-0 +7.25 units

Today Miami at Washington after a hard fought loss against the NBA's finest, Detroit Pistons, Heat was in that game all the way and covered ATS with Shaq's dunk at the end of regulation making the difference 5 points.
Wizards also coming off a loss against Phoenix, Washington was also in that game until Suns slipped away in the end.
Wizards have been dominated by the Heat and they will need to work extra hard in the low post. I think this Total has moved up too high, it would not be surprising to see this game end below 200 points.

MIA/WAS UNDER 207 -120 for 1 unit(L)
Went against my own rules on this loser.
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ATL/NJN 2nd Half UNDER 100.5 -108 for 2 units(W)
Beat this one by the hook.

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PHO/CHA 2nd Half OVER 99.5 -105 for 1 unit(W)
Cats ran out of gas at the end, but Suns just enough to push this over.

Finally.
2-1 +1.80 units

I need to get some last minute stuff done and head out to the airport today.
Before I go, my play today is on HOU/NOH. I got burned fading Houston in the early rounds (1st quarter & half), but I think Rockets are still worth the fade. I also think this game will play out to the low score billing.
Houston is just single demensional and opponents are shutting down T-Mac with double and triple D's. Hornets have not played since 12/23, might be flat out of the gate, but I think their defense will contain the B2B Rockets.

NOH -2.5 -118 for 1 unit(L)
HOU/NOH UNDER 175 -123 for 2 units(L)

Got moosed by the hook and 55 point 2nd quarter take this game clear over.
I could of thrown darts and hit better percentage. Need to step up my game, bad luck is the residue from lack of effort. Looking too much on the surface without depth.
0-2 -3.64 units

Having second thoughts on Heats early. They're giving pretty good numbers and Bucks after 15 point loss to Magic might have extra fight even on second leg of back to back road, but short trip and they had plenty of rest.
I think this game with start off fast and settle.

MIL/MIA 1st Quarter Over 50.5 -105 for 1 unit(W)

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Atlanta on the rise and Bobcats have depleted front court. Look for the Hawks to pound the inside.

ATL 1st Half -2.5 -110 for 1 unit(L)

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Houston on fade.
UTA 1st Half +3.5 -107 for 2 units(L)
UTA 1st Half +187 for 1 unit(L)
UTA 1st Quarter +2 -108 for 1 unit(L)

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PHL/DEN 2nd Half UNDER 102.5 -105 for 1 unit(L)
PHL 2nd Half +3 -105 for 2 units(W)

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Clippers -8.5 -108 for 2 units(L)
SAC/LAC UNDER 195.5 -118 for 2 units(L)

Ugly day again. Well, my vacation is almost over maybe things will return to norm.
7-2 -5.74 units

Monday at the hoops.
Time is ticking and I have a light play for NJN/NYK.
Knicks have been trending Over. 6 straight, 8 out of last 10. The strength of this trend is combined with Knicks timely point surge and porous defense allowing points in the paint and giving open looks.
The return of Eddy Curry will make the difference in taking this game UNDER. The 2 Under games out of the last 10 was also due to the difference of Curry. This guy is the Knicks low post that's a factor for Under.

NJN/NYK UNDER 194 -119 for 1 unit(L)

Knicks Over keeps rolling. I'll take another Under and again going against the public. 1 unit each.

POR/SAC 1ST Quarter Under 48.5 +110(L)
POR/SAC 1st Half Under 98 -129(L)
POR/SAC Under 191.5 -106(L)

Off target on all marks. I really liked Blazers to take the game Under too.
I'll look to take Miami ATS for the early round (1st quarter and half) when the line comes out.
0-4 -4.54 units

Happy Holidays and Best Wishes.

BetCrimes, Batis and to all the cappers.
May we all cover ATS and hit the Totals.

I think this line will move up so I'll go ahead and take the early line.
The game is GSW/DET, Warriors have been on the road since 12/13 (give or take with the quick return and back on the road schedule) They have been porous, but always seem to start the second half on a rally.
I would say this play is trend bias, similar to NYK playing Over, maybe not as obvious. Pistons are consistantly hitting 100+ at home. I think even with Pistons defense getting it done the porous nature of Warriors game would remain and score will reach the Over mark.

GSW/DET OVER 199 -123 for 2 units

I guessed wrong. Moved the opposite direction. I still feel this game has a good chance to go over 200+
I'll add.
GWS/DET OVER 196.5 -115 for 1 unit

Kings’ guard Bonzi Wells is expected to miss approximately three to four weeks of action due to a partial tear in his right groin. Kings’ forward Peja Stojakovic is expected to miss a minimum of one week due to a protruding disc in his lower back. I do think Mavs will win, but ATS has been moving strong towards Dallas. My play today will be on the O/U, I think Sacramento attack will get shut down today and Kings will have to put a body on every Mavs to keep them from dominating the board.

DAL/SAC UNDER 202.5 -120 for 2 units(W)

Nice work by Dirk down the stretch.
1-0 +2.00 units

Today I will make the play on Clippers at Pacers. LAC is playing second leg of back to back road game. The first leg they met with hot Nets and Clips helps their cause by turning over the ball in generous dose. I feel Clips were surprised and failed to collect themselves.
Pacers have their own internal problems, but are holding it together.
Don't let all the recent W's fool you, since their last home loss to Dallas (12/6) they have had soft schedule at home to help.
Clips should be a tough customer tonight and look for them to play strong in the low post. Now this is a back to back for the Clips and their back court could wear down.

LAC 1st Quarter +1.5 -108 for 1 unit(L)
LAC 1st Half +2.5 -109 for 2 units(L)

Adding.
SAS 1st Quarter -1.5 -110 for 2 units(W)

Adding.
DEN 1st Quarter -2.5 +101 for 1 unit(L)
TOR 1st Quarter +2 -107 for 2 units(W)

Last Addition.
WAS/DEN 2nd Half OVER 100.5 -105 for 2 units(W)

I couldn't give any reasoning for my added plays as I was taking them with the windows closing. Not my style to rapid fire the board, but I'll take the gain.
3-3 + 1.74 units

I will take a small position in this situational play.
DET/POR with Pistons on second leg of road back to back playing double OT and edging a win, losing ATS. Piston starters all played hard and long minutes. I'll take the Blazers upset win, sometimes the play calls for the long shot.

POR +1050 for 1 unit(L)
POR +12 +107 for 2 units(W)
Blazers were right there for the SU win and could not close the deal.
At least I backed it with ATS.
1-1 +1.14 units

Got too cocky last night.
Today I look to Toronto at Orlando.
Raptors, are we not men?, just turn over the ball and give up on the 2nd half? At home court? What an embarrassment against the 76ers.
Here we go to 2nd leg of back to back, on the road against the Magic.
Orlando quickly healing, looking balanced and flexing their muscle.
They will be eager to put on a show at home.

TOR/ORL OVER 188 -125 for 2 units(L)
Got it last night, but was too upset to publish the pick.
I think this game will go over 191.
Thinking of taking Raptors with points.

Got beat again.
0-1 -2.50 units

Sunday at the Association.
Hold tight, we might get what we're after.
Look for the MIN/DAL game to go UNDER the number.
I see some Over bias, but seems to be a sharp line with little movement.
As always take it at highest number possible.
Currently I see 184 ~ 183.5 so buy 185 UNDER.
Take UNDER 185 or better.

MIN/DAL UNDER 185 -122 for 3 units(L)

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WAS/POR Game. The Blazers are the bottom team that's in need of more than motivation. I'm fading them in the early going.
WAS 1st Quarter -1.5 -105 for 2 units(L)

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Here is a rare Prop Play from me.
Team Performance: DALLAS UNDER 108.5 -108 for 3 units(L)
This was a stupid prop. I ended up giving up 15 points with Dallas win.
I'll never play that crap again.

Got killed today.
0-3 -8.00 units

Friday game coming up. Good size card with nice match ups.
Maybe look for GSW/TOR to be a high scoring game or MIA/PHL or MIL/BOS.
I kind of like MIA/PHL Over 200.5 and looks like this will be a public play.
I'll think about that one, but will take one early line.
The game is ORL/DAL. Orlando's coming up, they are hitting from the field and scores is also on the rise. Dallas took care of the Suns at home and held the Suns below the century mark, but maybe that was because of Suns more than Mavs defense. Suns of late has not been the high flier failing to reach 100+ for the past 4 games so let's not give Dallas defense so much credit and Dallas allowed the most points to the Suns out of their last 4 games. I do like the Mavs offense at home scoring above 100+ in all of their home game since 12/10. Also the offensive looks balanced with Dirk taking charge and lots of guys in double figures. Orlando has been a under trending team, but this total may have dropped little too low.

ORL/DAL OVER 185 -101 for 2 units(W) *Wow, I just looked and the price has moved to -122 for this over. (sorry the price I took was -101 not +101)

This game goes Over in regulation, but late takers will sigh in relief.
OT game and the Over will cash hard.
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Adding GSW at TOR for high energy start to take the 1st quarter OVER.
I think Raps came out a bit flat in their last game after the long off time and Warriors, 18 points 1st quarter against Houston in last game need to be aggressive out of the gate.
GSW/TOR 1st Quarter OVER 51.5 -105 for 1 unit(L)
That should of gone over. That missed FT towards the end of quarter was the difference by the hook.

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Never take back to back game too lightly. But if you must keep in mind that fatigue factor is magnified in the second half.
SEA 1st Half -1.5 -115 for 2 units(W)
This was a laugher.
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I really like Seattle in the early game. I'm adding this one too
SEA 1st Quarter -1 -105 for 2 units(W)
This was a laugher. (is there an echo?)

I told Batis I'd stay off the board, but couldn't help myself.
3-1 +4.95 units

Hope all the Players are doing well. I'm still chillin', no work, no schedule, which is nice, but I'm a creature of habit when it comes to capping games.
I have my routine and trusty computer to crunch some data and go through at least a dozen metropolitan newspapers. I haven't done any of that.
Some capers are gun slinger taking lots of shots on the board looking to take down 60%~70%+, I consider myself a sniper with narrow target and I want to take my best shot, though I am known to hit more than a few.
So with this explanation I will tread lightly today.

Bulls travel to Air Canada Center on their second of back to back after a hard fought loss to rejuvenated Heat with presence of Shaq in the middle and Riley on the sideline. Riley activated Shaq's offense mode and just like that he scores 30 points. Bulls only scored 16 points in the paint compared to 42 points for Miami, but you know what? Bulls covered +4 ATS and I think they could of taken that one straight up if they turned the 4th quarter into a grinder instead of a shoot out. Now today's match up against the Raptors hungry for a win at home and this is where I normally talk about Raps trying to out run and out gun the tired Bulls, but I think the excited young Raptors will not penetrate the Bulls with their high pace style. Toronto has not played since 12/10, 111-103 win against the Cats. In that game Raps dominated the board and scoring in the paint and 3rd quarter was impressive. Well rested and prepared after so many losses to the Bulls. I feel Toronto with points will prevail, but Chicago will try to impose the tempo of this game early. If the Bulls are successful in slowing this game it should carry the Under for the full game.

CHI/TOR UNDER 203 -113 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit

Weekly Wrap Up. 12/5 to 12/11
Couple of bad calls at the end of this week, but still have great read on all games capped. I'll blame it on vacation distracting my focus and I'm not going to push it next week.

14 - 4 Gain +12.06 units *Robbed of winner on Sunday

SUN.
WAS/MIA UNDER 200 -120 for 3 units (L) -3.60
0-1 -3.60

SAT.
TOR/CHA OVER 197 -114 for 2 units (W) +2.00
PHO/LAC 1st Half UNDER 105 -116 for 2 units (L) -2.32
1-1 -0.32

FRI.
CHA/PHL OVER 197.5 -123 for 2 units (W) +2.00
CHA/PHL 1st Half OVER 100 -118 for 1 unit (W) +1.00
2-0 +3.00

THU.
WAS/IND OVER 189.5 -121 for 1 unit (W) +1.00
WAS/IND OVER 186.5 -118 for 1 unit (W) +1.00
HOU/SAC OVER 185 -128 for 2 units (W) +2.00
3-0 +4.00

WED.
BOS/NOH UNDER 193.5 -126 for 3 units (W) +3.00
BOS/NOH 2nd Half UNDER 95.5 -108 for 2 units (W) +2.00
CHI/ORL OVER 175.5 -124 for 2 units (W) +2.00
CHI/ORL 1st Half OVER 87 -115 for 1 unit (W) +1.00
4-0 +8.00

TUE.
IND 1st Half -1.5 -126 for 2 units (L) -2.52
DAL/IND 2nd Half UNDER 92.5 +105 for 2 units (W) +2.10
MIL 1st Half -2 -120 for 3 units (L) -3.60
TOR/WAS OVER 200.5 -127 for 3 units (W) +3.00
TOR/WAS 1st Qt. OVER 51.5 -113 for 2 units (W) +2.00
3-2 +0.98

MON.
SAS/ORL 1st Half OVER 84.5 -110 for 2 units (W) +2.00
1-0 +2.00

For the Wizards it's been a difficult two days. The loss in Indianapolis, they then got stuck in Indianapolis because of the snow storm, came back home on Saturday night to play the Chicago Bulls where they had a promising start in the 1st quarter, but like the game against the Pacers, a disastrous 2nd quarter, but this time, unlike the game against the Pacers, the Wizards did recover only to lose to the Chicago Bulls 118-111. Of concern, a meltdown in the final 3 minutes. The Wizards had a 111-102 lead with 3:06 to go only to see the Bulls go off on a 16-0 run to close the game. How could that happen? Bullets failed to make crucial stops and they will remember tonight.
O'Neal returned to practice this week and participated in Miami's shootaround Friday. He practiced Saturday and looks like he'll get back in uniform Sunday. It'll be nice to see him playing again, but I expect him to be on the clock. Don't expect 25 point production from the big man, Zo's going to do the heavy lifting and that means defending the inside. What's good about Shaq in this spot is he will clog up the middle and you still need to put couple of guys on him. Shaq will do what he can to make his way back, this is a start.
I look for today's battle below the 2 century mark.

WAS/MIA UNDER 200 -120 for 3 units(L)
Shaq, can't make both or miss both, makes one to send this game into OT.

Saturday hardcourt with the Association. Examine the game at Charlotte Bobcats Arena where the young Cats are 4-1 against Eastern Conference foes.
Primo's still out and playing the second leg of back to back (road/home) game.
I've said this in the past, in given situation with above average scoring teams, offense does not suffer over defense on the second leg of back to back with greater likely hood of rested opponents to try to raise the tempo to combat the wearily team. Cats losing in Philadelphia last night 119-115, the 10th loss in a row on the road, but it wasn't for lack of production from the bench players who combined for 55 points. I like the fact the bench created the surge rather than the starters. Toronto has been full of motivation and let downs. The last one was a let down against the surging Lakers at home. Another spot for the Raptors score to rise on the road and let's hope they are motivated.
I don't expect another 230+ game, but 200+ will do.

TOR/CHA OVER 197 -114 for 2 units(W)

Next pick is at Staples Center. Suns playing second leg of back to back (home/road) game with starters logging at least 36 min. playing their fourth game in five days on the heels of last night's 85-81 struggle of a triumph over New York. This a spot for Suns to fall, but I will stay on the O/U with Clippers
playing without Corey Maggette for a second straight game. In his absence, Walter McCarty, rookie James Singleton, and swingman Quinton Ross figure to get more minutes. LA will look to control the games tempo to keep from entering a track meet with Steve Nash's club while taking quality shots, protecting the ball effectively, getting to the free throw line, and attacking the offensive glass.

I like the extra points in
PHO/LAC 1st Half UNDER 105 -116 for 2 units(L)
(*waited little too long)

Fatal error in reading the PHO/LAC. Even with the back to back they stormed out of the gate, Clips trade baskets to charge up the 1st quarter to
70 points. The game slowed from that point, but too much for the 1st Half.
1-1 -0.32 units

I see something I like for Friday. It's not ripe yet.

I'm starting my vacation tomorrow and planning on leaving town after the weekend. It might be tough for me to post the picks next week.
The boys will be here doing their usual great job and I will be on email status with some of you.
Be back in the morning to see if the play is ripe for the pickin'

It's nearing game time. I'm still watching the same line, not sure what I'll do here.

I will take a position on Cats at 76ers. Bobcats on the road are for the fifth time in six games. Starting center Primoz Brezec did not make the trip to Philadelphia remaining in Charlotte with flu-like symptoms. Melvin Ely will be in the starting lineup replacing Brezec. Bobcats shooting guard Kareem Rush will also return to the starting lineup. Looks like the Cats will have speed, but today 76ers will be in offensive form.

CATS/76ers OVER 197.5 -123 for 2 units(W)
CATS/76ers OVER 100 1st Half -118 for 1 unit(W)

I blinked and windows closed on all my good leans. I'm not even going to talk about what I wanted to take, I'll just let it go. What's wrong with 2 winners?
In a ZONE 2-0 +3.00 units
I'm on vacation now so I'm not on any fixed schedule, I'll be blogging at my leisure. If you need me email, can't promise quick response.

My early line for Thursday.
Pacers had their lowest scoring game against the Mavs playing back to back and lost. I backed Indiana in that game. The struggling Pacers got some bad news Wednesday when Ron Artest was unable to practice with recurring pain in his right wrist. Jamaal Tinsley also couldn't practice because of a strained quad and groin. Both starters are listed as doubtful for Thursday night's game against Washington. The Pacers have dropped two in a row and three of four overall heading into Thursday night's game. Coach Rick Carlisle indicated he'd strongly consider making some changes. Jermaine O'Neal even broached the possibility of roster moves being necessary if no turnaround is on the way. Many will see this as a nice spot to take Washington +7 (just went to +6.5 at Pinny) as not all Cappers are up to speed with the info.
But I'm thinking Pacers defense will suffer with Artest out. Trends point to Under with Total opening with shaded Under. Numbers dropped quick, but now it's stalling. Guys who can score will create their own shots, but defense is team effort. I'm thinking Wiz attacking the paint will be the order of the day. Pacers scoring should bounce up even with the missing starters.

Take a small position and watch the lines.
WAS/IND OVER 189.5 -121 for 1 unit(W)
Looks like Public loves the UNDER, the Players are on this too.
That's OK, I've been on my own side and I'm not 100% every day, but I still like it. Might even hit it for another unit. Keep in mind the 1st Half line is set at O/U 94 and naturally Under is getting the money.
I could buy this nice looking O down to 188 at a discount at -116, I'm going to check her out for awhile longer.

This game is still going down. Looking like I'll be able to get Over 185.5

Not quite that low, but I'll take it.
WAS/IND OVER 186.5 -118 for 1 unit(W)
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Oh man, HOU/SAC Total is dropping like a rock. Pinny opened 189.
Public is going to get slaughtered. The Kings are not planning to play Houston's game today. Kings want the ball in transition and leave Yao in their dust, that's how Kings are going to try to take this game. Houston will look to convert inside with Yao and T-Mac on the drive/ T-Mac from the field, get couple of guys hitting their range and boom, Score goes OVER.

HOU/SAC OVER 185 -128 for 2 units(W)

Public got slaughtered, but if your rolling with the Clutch we slammed the Books. May not be 100% everyday, but we are again today.

3-0 +4.00 units

My early line for Wednesday. I be back with the write ups in the morning.

It's morning and I sit in front of my computer........
This is why it's important to write your thought down right away, I know I had more angles on this game last night than I have now.
Anyway, it's a bounce back spot for the points and the line makers over anticipated the number in my opinion. Both teams only scored in the 70's and we all know it's not going to end in 160's but, 190's ?

BOS/NOH UNDER 193.5 -126 for 3 units(W)
Where's the Defense?
BOS/NOH 2nd Half UNDER 95.5 -108 for 2 units(W)

This one is a Under trending game at TD Waterhouse Center (I hate all these commercial names) The Bull will visit the reeling Orlando Magic.
I watched that last game Magic lost against San Antonio and you know it was a blow out, but I liked the way Magic kept things in control for the first half (Magic covered ATS 1st Half) and Spurs were in a zone for the 2nd Half in champion form a healthy Magic playing their top game would of lost, you have to look at two clubs in different levels and consider everything that took place.
Magic practice Tuesday the team worked on offensive execution and on various defensive schemes. Coach Brian Hill didn't run the team as hard, Spurs game was their third in four days.
Steve Francis practiced expect to see him suit up.
Bulls also played good ball in their loss to Dallas. Dirk took out Kirk and Deng with his elbow, Kirk left the game and Deng lost his tooth (Kirk's not scratched on tonight's probable, Huh he's not with the team, that solves that) and in the end it was the give away baskets...Where's the "D"? OK, they might be working on that, but they have tough time executing defense on the road. Good thing they have an active bench.
I think this match up will be a good one. I'm looking for high 80's to low 90's type game.

CHI/ORL 1st Half OVER 87 -115 for 1 unit(W)
CHI/ORL OVER 175.5 -124 for 2 units(W)

Cha-ching! Clutch plays money ball. Nothing but W"s
4-0 +8.00 units

Today let's start with the game at Conseco Fieldhouse where the Dallas will play 2nd leg of back to back. Cappers looked at Chicago to stop Mavs in their 1st leg, they were wrong, Dallas stepped up to pull away in the 2nd half. Mavs played well all around it was a typical Dallas display, what you expect against the Bulls. This game will differ as Mavs put so much into each game the back to back's are an handicap. Jason Terry will be a game time decision.
Indiana's loss in Seattle also snapped my O/U streak losing my Under as the Sonics set the high tempo. Pacers led in the paint, fast breaks, shooting percentage, but lost the boards and the difference was they failed to play their game.

I'll take PACERS -1.5 1st Half -126 for 2 units(L)
I will consider 2nd Half total.
DAL/IND 2nd Half UNDER 92.5 +105 for 2 units(W)


Moving on to Bradley Center. Western Conference have dominated the Bucks and Lakers have owned them, but today the line is set against the trend and rightly so. Lakers are not built for the road and this will not be a contest. Getting lucky against the Cats at home is not at all impressive.
Bucks showed no mercy against Magic and I like to see them jump on this game in front of the home crowd.

MIL -2 1st Half -120 for 3 units(L)
Wow, I can't hit any sides. That's 2 craps on ATS.

Nearing game time. I'm looking for a shoot out at MCI Center.
Wizards talk about no chemistry and playing defense, let's just fight fire with fire. Broke the century mark against Bucks in a loss last game. Raps growing confidence with the young guns will come ready to attack.
I look for the tone to be set in the 1st quarter, settle and resume a high tempo to break 200+ for the game.

TOR/WIZ 1st Quarter OVER 51.5 -113 for 2 units(W)
TOR/WIZ OVER 200.5 -127 for 3 units(W)

Totals staying hot, but ATS really needs work.
3-2 +0.98 units

Monday light card. I see players are on Chicago Bulls today, my good friend Batis may agree on that home dog, but such a small spread and Dallas likely public play why did so many cappers jump on Bulls +1 or +1.5 ? Why not wait, it's +2.5 at most books now and might go higher. ML price should improve too.
That's just silly hitting a line when it's improving to your favor.
I'm going to stay off this one, it might buck the trend or Mavs win by a basket.

My first take today will be on San Antonio at Orlando.
Magic is riddled and Spurs are rolling, that's what all the previews are saying,
maybe so, but Spurs defense is little forgiving on the road and Magic is back home which should help the score climb, Hedo Turkoglu will return to the Magic line up and when the media writes them off the team usually steps up. Manu Ginobili was reevaluated at shoot around today, went through the shoot around with no apparent problems and is now listed as probable for tonight.
The Under for today is a luring Under at 173 and it's not getting much bite, matter of fact I don't think there are much takers for this game.

Taking the 1st Half and shave off more points.
SAS/ORL 1st Half OVER 84.5 -110 for 2 units(W)
Walk in the park. Still thinking about late games.

Miami off to a quick start at Staples Center, let's not forget they are on 5th day (oops, 6th day) on the road playing their 4th game, if they take the lead into the Half we may have a good play. Lead is shrinking at the end of 1st Clips down by 7 points.

Before I could type a another word 12-2 Clippers run, caught Miami and passed them....LOL

Clips just covered ATS for 1st Half. I can't see Heat shooting at this pace (51%) for rest of the game, but I wouldn't give +5 points to Miami.
O/U 95 for second half, my lean would be Under, but Walker and Payton no points yet they could keep the scores going. No play.

Today end with one winner.
1-0 +2.00 units

Check that out, Under 95 comes in.....should of bet that one.

My weekly wrap-up.

Mon. 11/28
DAL/TOR UNDER 202 -120 for 2 units (W)
1-0 +2.00

Tue. 11/29
MIL PK -104 for 3 units (W)
DAL/MIL 1st Half Over 100 +100 for 2 units (W)
DAL/MIL OVER 199 -109 for 2 units (W)
IND -3.5 -105 for 1 unit (W)
IND/UTA OVER 177.5 -105 for 1 unit (L)
4-1 +6.95

Wed. 11/30
SAC/GSW OVER 197.5 -110 for 3 units (W)
IND/PHO OVER 193.5 -114 for 2 units (W)
LAC/CLE OVER 198 -106 for 1 unit (W)
3-0 +6.00

Thu. 12/01
SAS -2 -110 for 5 units (P)
0-0-1

Fri. 12/02
TOR/ATL OVER 192.5 -115 for 2 units (W)
TOR/ATL OVER 191.5 -114 for 2 units (W)
CLE/SEA 1st Half Over 101 -109 for 2 units (W)
3-0 +6.00

Sat. 12/03
TOR/NJN 1st Half Over 95 -115 for 3 units (W)
1-0 +3.00

Sun. 12/04
IND/SEA UNDER 195.5 -123 for 2 units (L)
IND/SEA 1st Half Under 97 -110 for 1 unit (W)
IND/SEA 1st Quarter Under 48.5 +106 for 1 unit (L)
BOS/NYK OVER 195 -120 for 1 unit (W)
CHA/LAL 2nd Half Over 96.5 -111 for 2 units (W)
3-2 +0.54


15(W) - 3 (L) - 1 (P) Total Gain +24.59 units
This is the best weekly gain so far this season, although I wanted to end the week with 1 loss but I collected 2 more losses on Sunday for total of 3 losses.
I'm going to need a perfect week to top this one.

My early line for Sunday. I'll have the write up in the morning.

I'll try to keep my reasoning short and to the point. This match up is coming off of respective scoring peak for both teams, 116 SEA & 98 IND (that's high for Pacers), Even with poor defense I don't see Pacers racking up the score. I think Pacers will be focused on containing Allen & Lewis and I like to see Sonics battle the board on both ends. I feel Indiana will set the defensive tone to this game.
IND/SEA UNDER 195.5 -123 for 2 units(L)
(sorry CLE was a mistake, but the line and price is correct from last night)

Adding modified plays.
IND/SEA 1st Half UNDER 97 -110 for 1 unit(W)
IND/SEA 1st Quarter UNDER 48.5 +106 for 1 unit(L)
Very sharp lines.

This game is under way. I like the offensive activity on both sides, in the paint and fast break, with recent games. I like these two teams to match up close today and OVER trend to continue.
I wanted to take 1st Half OVER, but missed it.
BOS/NYK OVER 195 -120 for 1 unit(W)
Not only are my O/U are hitting dead on I'm getting lucky and missing the losers. 2nd half surge was right on time.

2nd Half late game.
CHA/LAL 2nd Half OVER 96.5 -111 for 2 units(W)
I know it looked like a late chase, but I really did like this 2nd Half and there was no time to do any write ups. It's hard to gauge which Lakers will show up on any given game I thought I had a good read on Over after watching the first half.

3-2 gain +0.54 units
*I took the NHL winner posted by Batis so not really that bad at all.
Any time you edge out a gain is OK by me.

I'm still watching the lines.
The game I like is moving in my favor.
I'll be looking for a good spot to pull the trigger, stay tuned.

My first take today.
I've watched this since the opening at 197 did not take long to go 196.5 than gradual move down to 195 and now it's taking a small bounce back as the Under price has moved from -115 to -110. What game?
TOR at NJN.
TOR on 2nd of back to back road game. I wouldn't say Nets are a offensive force that would out run and out gun the Raptors, but what I do like is the looming 1000th win combined with very active Nets in the paint also making good fast breaks in their loss to the Pistons.
Again the Pistons were solid and despite the Nets good effort Detroit stopped their outside game holding them to 40% shooting. Pistons also did a good job shutting down Kidd.
Toronto's catching momentum, 100+ scoring against ATL is also good indicator. True to Raptors pattern they are once again starting to run up the score on the road. What stands out from their last match up in early season (11/04) is Raptors miserable 1st half with a forgettable 9 points scored in the 2nd quarter. I'm sure they remember. Nets will have a easier time establishing their inside outside game. Let's run up the score in the early going.

TOR/NJN 1st Half OVER 95 -115 for 3 units(W)
*waited little too long.

Sorry everybody I just couldn't get on line to make additional plays.
Let's call it a day with a win.
Please come back and check out my plays for Sunday.
1-0 +3.00 units

This is my early pick. I will return in the morning to add some insight.

Now it's Friday morning (09:45 PST) This early pick opened yesterday at 197 and I watched it drop. I thought there might be some rebound but it just kept moving down.
This is a good spot for scoring to climb up. Neither of these team could not find their shot in both of their last games, TOR scored 66 points on 34.7% shooting, ATL scored 74 points on 40% shooting.
Before those games TOR played Under hosting DAL, remember that was my situational Under after giving up too many easy baskets, but look beyond that and you'll see Raptors are very productive on the road.
ATL before MEM played Under oriented teams HOU, POR, IND, which contributed to the Under run. I think the scoring returns tonight.

TOR/ATL OVER 192.5 -115 for 2 units(W)
Adding.
TOR/ATL OVER 191.5 -114 for 2 units(W)

This play which flashed a high opening of 205, that was just to get your attention, quickly moved down 204.5, 204 and now 203.
I'm talking about Cleveland Cavaliers visiting Seattle Supersonics at Key Arena.
My friend in Seattle tells me they had their first snow yesterday and it has been very cold all week, all relative to where your at I guess, but I expect things to heat up inside the Key.
When Sonics surge it's the nucleus of Allen & Lewis, when these two click Sonics roll. It was wire to wire win against the Cats in last game.
Cavs last home stand against LA Clippers was LAC most of the way. I'm sure Cavs was not happy with opponents stopping their attacks, this might be the right opponent to make adjustments and attack.
Sonics have porous defense, but can fight fire with fire and they have revenge on their mind.

CLE/SEA 1st Half OVER 101 -109 for 2 units(W)

Just like a clock I tick and tock, time to pay me.
3-0 +6.00 units

My over night selection will be a popular early pick.
Mavs come home and they were running out of gas towards the end of that road trip. Now the rematch, more likely a revenge match.
Dallas might still be jet-lagged. San Antonio will show no mercy if the Mavs are step behind.

SAS -2 -110 for 5 units(P)
I contemplated buying 0.5 for SAS -1.5 at -125 or SAS ML at -135 before pulling the trigger on this one. Should of, would of, could of....
0-0-1 no loss, no gain.

I have a busy schedule ahead with my vacation coming up. I need to get some work out of the way and clear my desk.
This will be my only play.
Good luck to all.

My overnight selection for the early line on Kings at Warriors.
With these teams you might lean to the Over, but looking back at the past match ups for 3 seasons there is only one regulation Over and one OT Over which would of ended Under without the OT. The line makers have done well in shading the Over just enough to take the public's money.
Normally I would not take this game early, maybe even let the Total numbers climb and hit the Under, but this match up has both Kings and Warriors on the rise. Yes the recent games have been against below .500 teams, but these teams were also playing on an winning note before getting knocked down by Kings and Warriors.
NO beat MIN at home than SEA on the road before losing to GSW, TOR was on an ATS terror since beating MIA 11/20 SU they kept all the games close on the road to take ATS wins until GSW. UTA demolished MIL at home and went on to beat SEA on the road Warriors stopped them too.
King will be 2nd leg of back to back, but after storming out of the gate and showing 3 strong quarters, they played all reserves in the 4th quarter against the Bobcats. Before that they edged out Toronto that was on a roll. Before that was the Nets on the tough West Coast swing, but on this night Nets were shooting 53.8% from the field and Kings still beat them.
This might be the type of game that's long been expected with Kings starters picking up where they left off at the end of 3rd quarter against the Cats and Golden State fighting fire with fire. Both teams have been very active in the paint and if the shooters find their range this one should go into 200+ points.

SAC/GSW Over 197.5 -110 for 3 units(W)
Whoop there it is.

Now it's Wednesday late morning and I'm ready for the day.
I will apply the theory I used Tuesday. Offense does not suffer over defense on back to back road game. Why wouldn't Suns try to out run an opponent coming to their house on a back to back?
The opening Total was shaded Under and caught momentum.
Many indicators and past performance will point to Under, but beware as Under oriented teams like, MEM, UTA, DET, have played at America West Arena with their Under backers getting burned and the Totals on these games were all set in the 195~199 range.

IND/PHO Over 193.5 -114 for 2 units(W)
Just like the MAV/MIL game yesterday, 200 at end of regulation.

One more addition. I know the players love this Under and they could very well be right. I just find this Total set for this match a bit high and if you were to look at the 1st quarter and 1st half the Under shade is more than obvious. I consider this number as luring Under and usually the opposite holds true for the outcome.
Clippers are not the same team from last season and Cavs looks ready to explode. This is a line play.

LAC/CLE OVER 198 -106 for 1 unit(W)
OT take this one clear Over.

That ain't working that's the way to do it.
3-0 +6.00 units

You know all of today's game went against the long term trend, match up trend & totals trend. Something that's rarely seen. Maybe normality will be the order for Tuesday.

Dallas playing on 2nd leg of back to back road game arrived to Milwaukee after stealing one in Toronto, Rators took easy ATS win, that 1st leg game changed leads 16 times, tied 12 times and went down to the wire....This was not a good game for 9-3 (now 10-3) SouthWest powerhouse against a 1-13 (now 1-14) Atlantic bottom dweller. This is not a good sign for the second leg.
OK, Bucks cooled off, in their last game Pistons changed the pace and shut them down in their own house, but that was a extremely good Pistons executing down the stretch and playing defense. Other than that (Pistons) game, Bucks are sharp shooters at home, they have taken down some good teams and they will be hungry for a win. It's not easy to take back to back road game in NBA.

Line opens MIL -1 and Dallas backers have pushed this to PK. Wait, I got that wrong, line opened DAL -1. I do see MIL -1 at some books.
I'll take some of that for my overnighter.

MIL PK -104 for 3 units(W)

You got to love Batis, I go to him and say "look at this...look at that... look what I did..." and he'll tell me to shut up and Just Do It.
So on to my added plays.
I like the score to climb for DAL/MIL today, Total numbers opened shaded Under and caught some momentum. Bucks low scoring trend combined with
Mavs back to back plus recent low scores, defense, all reasonable logic.
My argument here is I don't think offense will suffer over defense for Mavs playing back to back. Mavs defense is different from the likes of Pistons or Spurs, they play more of pressure defense to make steals and create turn overs, protect the middle lane and don't let guys streak down the middle. For Mavs to play this defense on the 2nd leg might be extending their stamina.
I hope Bucks will have this edge and push the tempo. Dallas, being a great team, I think will find their shooters in range and keep pace to stay in striking distance. I like the OVER.

DAL/MIL 1st Half OVER 100 +100 (Even) for 2 units(W)
DAL/MIL OVER 199 -109 for 2 units(W)

Another game I will take is IND/UTA.
Jazz has improved , but not really close to full strengh. I think Andrei Kirilenko, aka AK-47, will be on the court and that should give some boost at home.
I like what I saw in Pacers when they played the Clippers at Staples. While Clips played a up down game Pacers played very steady constant pace and surged in second half. They looked like the expected contenders.
Indiana 4-0 SU & ATS for past 3 seasons and 3 of 4 games in series have gone Over.

IND -3.5 -105 for 1 unit(W)
IND/UTA OVER 177.5 -105 for 1 unit(L)

Not quite perfecto. IND/UTA Total was not close at all, even the 2nd half went Under.
4-1 +6.95 units JUST DO IT BABY !

I think Batis would remind me that it's home dog Monday. That would be Toronto +8 matching up with Dallas. It looks like early money likes the play (now at -108) There's a Toronto +8.5 at BetWWTS.
I think the public might bite on Dallas on a bounce back spot, but Howard is out....I'll watch the line on this one.

What I will take early is the Total on the same game.
Dallas was beat bad at home against the Grizz (92-112 -27 ATS Dallas loss)
Toronto was waxed at Golden State (91-117 -17 ATS Toronto loss)
Some may look at these last games and think the scores will climb.
Mavs have reached the 100+ points in 3 previous games and Raptors broke 100+ in 2 previous games not to mention games at Air Canada Center soars high, but I look at Raptors last game getting beat in the paint 60-28 at GSW,
Dallas at home lost the inside 52-36 to Memphis and think that's too many easy baskets they gave up.
I'd say they turn up the defense.

DAL/TOR UNDER 202 -120 for 2 units(W)

Nice call on Toronto home dog Batis, just as you predicted.
BetCrimes tracking heavy Dog run did give me second thoughts.
How do you like my totals? Do you think it's back to last season's form?

I have not been updating my record since Week 1.
Here's what it looks like from the start of this season.

11/01
DAL/PHO UNDER 218 -116 to win 2.00 units (L)
0-1 loss -2.32 units
11/02
SAC/HOU UNDER 192 at -119 for 1 unit (W)
IND -5 at -110 for 2 units (W)
IND/ORL UNDER 189 at -109 for 2 units (W)
3-0 +5.00 units
11/03
PHO +4 at -116 for 3 units (W)
PHO ML +148 for 1 unit (W)
2-0 +4.48 units
11/04
Memphis -2.5 at -104 (W)
MEM 1st Quarter -1 at -105 for 2 units (W)
DEN 1st Quarter -3 at -105 for 2 units (W)
DEN 1st Half -6 at -105 for 3 units(W)
4-0 +8.00 units
11/05
PHO 1st Quarter -0.5 -103 2units(L)
PHO 1st Half -1.5 -104 1 unit(L)
PHO -2 -105 2 units(W)
2-1 loss -1.10 units
11/06
DENVER -1 -112 for 5 units(L)
LAC -2 2nd Half +102 1unit(L)
0-2 loss -6.60 units

Week 1 total 10-5 Gain +5.60

11/07 (week 2)
LAC/MIN OVER 177.5 at -108 for 2 units(L)
0-1 -2.16 units
11/08
KINGS 1st Half ML +106 2 units(L)
KINGS ML +115 1 unit(L)
KINGS ATS +2 -107 2 units(L)
0-3 loss -5.14
11/09
DALLAS 1st Quarter -1.5 -105 for 2 units(L)
DAL/PHIL 1st Quarter UNDER 50.5 -105 2 units(L)
SAS/CHA 1st Quarter OVER 45 +102 for 3 units(W)
DENVER -3 2nd Half -105 for 2 units(W)
2-2 +0.86
11/10
CLIPS/HAWKS OVER 186 -111 (W)
ROCKETS/HEAT OVER 172 -125(P)
PISTONS/SUNS UNDER 203 -121(L)
PISTONS/SUN OVER 197.5 -121 for 1 unit(W)
2-1-1 +0.79
11/11
NYK/GSW OVER 183.5 -121(L)
WAS -1 1st Quarter -109(W)
MAV/CATS UNDER 192 -103(W)
Denver ML +161(L)
2-2 -0.21
11/12
DAL/HOR UNDER 184 -118 for 2 units(L)
0-1 -2.36
11/13
CLE/ORL UNDER 182.5 -116 for 2 units(L)
LAC/PHL 1st Half UNDER 99.5 -111 for 2 units(L)
0-2 -4.54 units

Week 2 total 5-11-(1P) Loss -12.86 units

11/14 (week 3)
GSW -5 -111 for 3 units(W)
NYK 1st Half ML +129 for 2 units(W)
2-0 +5.58 units
11/15
DALLAS -7 -103 for 2 units(L)
Clips -1 1st Quarter -105 for 2 units(W)
JAZZ/KINGS 2nd Half Over 94.5 -113 for 2 units(W)
KINGS ML 2nd Half -196 to win 1 unit(W)
BUCKS ML 2nd Half +103 for 2 units(L)
3-2 +0.94 units
11/16
INDIANA -7.5 -110 for 3 units(L)
NYK/LAL OVER 180 -108 for 2 units(W)
1-1 -1.30 units
11/17
HOU/SAS OVER 176 -105 for 1 unit(*off load L)
WASHINGTON +1.5 1st Quarter -112 for 2 units(W)
HOU/SAS UNDER 177.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
2-1 +1.95 units
11/18
SEA -3 at -110 for 4 units(W)
CHI/SEA UNDER 198.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)
2-0 +6.00 units
11/19
DET/DAL OVER 185 -105 for 2 units(W)
DET/DAL 1st Half OVER 91.5 -110 for 2 units(W)
WAS/NJN 1st Half Over 97.5 +103 for 1 unit(L)
WAS/NJN 2nd Half Under 103.5 +101 for 2 units(W)
CLE/PHL 2nd Half Over 102.5 -115 for 1 unit(W)
CATS/WOLVES 2nd Half Under 94 -110 for 1 unit(L)
MEM/UTH 2nd Half Under 87.5 -108 for 1 unit(W)
5-2 +5.92 units
11/20
LAKERS -4 at 105 for 2 units(L)
CHI/LAL UNDER 190 +100 for 1 unit(W)
CHI 2nd Half +4.5 -105 for 2 units(W)
2-1 +0.90 units

Week 3 total 15-7 Gain +19.99 units

11/21 (week 4)
SPURS -5.5 -113 for 1 unit(L)
MIL/UTA 1st Quarter UNDER 47 -111(W)
MIL/UTA 1st Half UNDER 93 -120(P)
MIL/UTA UNDER 185 -117(W)
2-1-1 +0.87 units
11/22
DEN/WAS OVER 195.5 -107 for 2 units(W)
BOS/CAV 1st Quarter OVER 51.5 -112 for 1 unit(W)
BOS/CAV 1st Half OVER 102 -120 for 1 unit(W)
DEN +2 1st Half +102 for 1 unit(W)
4-0 +5.02 units
11/23
TOR/LAC UNDER 203.5 -110 for 3 units(W)
SAS/GSW 2nd Half OVER 92.5 -122 for 2 units(W)
2-0 +5.00 units
11/24
CLE +3.5 -105 for 1 unit(L)
CLE/IND UNDER 200.5 for -127 for 2 units(W)
1-1 +0.95 units
11/25
DAL/MIA OVER 192 -120 for 1 unit(W)
1-0 +1.00 unit
11/26
NYK +1 for -105 for 1 unit(W)
NOH/SEA OVER 191 -118 for 2 units(W)
2-0 +3.00 units
11/27
BLAZERS +3.5 -103 for 1 unit(W)
POR/ATL UNDER 186 -109 for 1 unit(W)
POR/ATL UNDER 187 -105 for 3 units(W)
3-0 +5.00 units

Week 4 total 15-2-(1P) Gain +20.84 units

Bounced backed nicely from the 2nd week drought.
I like to thank BetCrimes for posting his O/U & ATS tracking.
Also look for Batis to surge...quiet before the storm.
On to Week 5. Best of luck everybody.

The Hawks are home favorites today for the first time this season and they have been ATS money, but that was with getting good points as dogs.
I understand this is a revenge spot off a close road loss for Hawks and Blazers have little going for them. They even had to send Patterson home.
Even so the two SU wins are little suspect, little too close to give Portland +3.5 points. I like to see Portland dig deep and remember Blazer has beat the Hawks in 8 straight meetings.

BLAZERS +3.5 -103 for 1 unit(W)

Blazers have been slumping, 1-3 in this road trip and given up 100+ points in all 3 losses and coming off 2 below average scoring. Hawks also had very poor scoring, though winning against Indiana. Looks like Over is the play in Atlanta........ I'm going against the grain. Blazers need the big stop to take control and Hawks may help matters by being too excited.

POR/ATL UNDER 186 -109 for 1 unit(W)

Watch the lines, I might return to add some modified plays or increase my units.

Thinking of pulling a NBA double header at Staples. Maybe add another, near by Staples, dining review. Have you seen "Training Day" Denzel Washington & Ethan Hawke? Do you remember the scene where Denzel's character Alonzo meets the 3 wisemen at a restaurant? Well, that is the Pacific Dining Car
Los Angeles landmark since 1921 famous for their thick, juicy steaks cooked over a mesquite fire. Remember Alonzo introduces Hoyt (Ethan Hawke) to the wisemen then tells him "Go get yourself a baseball steak" that's a a two-inch-thick cut of top sirloin. But I recommend the Delmonico (bone-in New York strip) or the buttery filet mignon.

If that's too heavy after Thanksgiving, and if my girl decides to join me, it'll more likely be The Water Grill, it's one of the top Los Angeles Sea Food restaurant in downtown and really tough to get a good table.

Sorry everyone, getting out to downtown and watching the Total move my way I had to hit it for more, but you guys reading will not make in time.

POR/ATL UNDER 187 -105 for 3 units(W)

I'll do a weekly wrap up and bring the record up to speed.
I was deadly this week.

Sixers at Knicks for Saturday morning match up (09:35 PST)
Do some of you think NYK +1 is a weak line? If you do, keep in mind Knicks have taken 8 out of last 10 match ups and Sixers are sick, I mean they have the flu and they're hurting. Who has the flu? Deng Gai, Allen Iverson, James Thomas and Chris Webber. Their not all going to be out of the game, but this might take something out of them. Take a small early position and watch the line.

NYK +1 for -105 for 1 unit(W)
Big public fade. I heard the voices of masses cry out and than there was silence.

Hornets at Sonics will follow the game in New York. This game I like to see Sonics break the century mark back at home. Ray Allen was off against the Lakers, or maybe Kobe was too hot, but I like to see a bounce back effort from Ray and the Sonics on the offensive side after giving up 8 point lead in the half. Hornets played a grinding game against the T-Wolves and came out with the win. With confidence growing and attacks getting aggressive I expect Hornets scoring to improve from their last 84 points. Hornets have scored into the +90's with good frequency on the road.

NOH/SEA OVER 191 -118 for 2 units(W)

Same old song and dance. Keep on Rockin'
2-0 +3.00 units

Having a good week and a very nice Thanksgiving with the family.

There are too much distraction to get a good read, although I am aware of few nice looking games....like POR/ORL Over 172, HOU/MEM Under 174,
Grizz -5.5, Hawks +12, DAL PK, I'm not ready to take any position too easily.
Sure some of these will hit, maybe more than less.

I take a small spot on a declining total that may have fell too low.

DAL/MIA OVER 192 -120 for 1 unit(W)

Another Good one, by 1 point.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Thanksgiving play is Cleveland at Indiana.
The marquee match up is LBJ vs Ron Artest, this should be good.
I see players on Pacers -3.5 and this is normally a good spot, but Cavs didn't show any signs of weakening, they dominated 16pts to 7pts fast break,
46pts to 24pts in the paint, out shot and only lost the rebound by a difference of 1 offensive board. The biggest lead was 23. If Cavs show signs of deteriorating it'll most likely happen on a road game, but my theory is Cavs with momentum plus +3.5 points maybe too much for Indy even at home. Line is not doing much now.
What caught my attention here is the difference of shot attempts between the two teams.
Pacers averages an low number reflecting their deliberate style and they do not allow much scoring at home. Cavs with much higher number I don't think they're concerned with offense, but more so with opponents scoring on the road. Both losses came on the road with opponents breaking the century mark.
So Cavs make defensive adjustments and Pacers tighten up their's, the game stays close and stays below 200.

I will go with.

CLE +3.5 -105 for 1 unit(L)
CLE/IND UNDER 200.5 for -127 for 2 units(W)
(bought the points from 199. This price has changed to -134 as I write.)

I was not even close with Cleveland, but O/U....MONEY.
1-1 +0.95 units

NBA filled evening I could go crazy like a kid in a candy store, but I'm only taking one game.

Toronto Raptors at L.A. Clippers
Clips are the new star of Los Angeles, new found Clipper fans are crawling out from under the rocks. Yes they are good and it doesn't look like a November wonder. Raptors come to town on the second of back to back losing to the Suns, but they were in that game with 4:14 to go. Toronto 11-8 all time, 4-5 last 9 which may not mean much with Clipper looking nothing like last year. Will Clips try to run today with Toronto's second leg? That might be easier said than done with athletic Bosh down at the post. I think Clips play defensive minded and come down from the 113 point scoring burst against GSW. Raptors may bring up the score from 82-90(L) Suns, but may not go over 100. Total projection will not go 203.

TOR/LAC UNDER 203.5 -110 for 3 units(W) *103-100

Clips shooting 61% and Raps are outscoring them. This Under is in trouble.
Never know though, high shooting percentage can come down quick.

I am adding Over in different game.
SAS/GSW 2nd Half OVER 92.5 -122 for 2 units(W)

Was that game in Los Angeles Clutch or what!
2-0 +5.00 units

Picks are starting to go my way, not on fire, but making progress.
What's working? Well, the line makers are getting hot and that means the public gets burned. That's the big picture for ATS.
As for Totals, low looking games are going Under and vice versa.

Tuesday selection
When games are played at this level there are constant adjustments being made to reach the optimum balance of offense and defense. Washington started by showing some defense in early November, but slowly the score climbed and peaked with Seattle (137-96 on 11/11) from there it moved back down to last game against NJ (83-89 on 11/19 the line makers projected high scoring game here with O/U at 201.5)
Denver also not cracking the century mark in all but 3 games so far and last time was 11/13 against the Timberwolves. Since that game 80, 91, 95, 99, looks like it's on the climb. Yes the Nuggets are woeful on the road, but porous too and they must be thinking how to turn on their offense on the road.
The books do not have a good read on this game, I saw more than the normal variances between the books in the opening line.

DEN/WAS OVER 195.5 -107 for 2 units(W)

I hesitated on my second pick and missed the better price.
Boston at Cleveland looks like a Cav winner, but the C's have played them well at Cleveland. Matter of fact Celtics have won 7 out of 9 trips to the state of Ohio. But the match up sure looks good for the Cavs, West is not fast enough for Jones and Snow will set up LBJ and Hughes on the attack.
Blount will have his hands full with Gooden at Power Forward, Gooden loves to play Boston. Blount is shooting well and he will need all the fire power to fight Gooden with good offense. Big Z in the middle, he is one of the top scoring centers in the East. LaFrentz and Blount will need to put the ball in open court and play transition ball, make the Big Z run. Cavs also have Marshall scoring big off the bench.

BOS/CAV 1st Quarter OVER 51.5 -112 for 1 unit(W)
BOS/CAV 1st Half OVER 102 -120 for 1 unit(W)
I would take Over 203 or 203.5, but limiting my plays today.

This one is a gut play with so many loving the Wizards back home.
DEN +2 1st Half +102 for 1 unit(W)

Nothing but "W"s. Totals are starting to cash.
4-0 +5.02 units

San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings.
I'm keeping this one light. I'm don't like going against a team losing SU, but covering ATS on previous match. Kings did control most of the game only to have Sonics come back into the game. Kings are lacking personal to close out these game and Sonics are rising right now.

Kings come home to face the Spurs. San Antonio is too tough of a team to meet on the 2nd leg of back to back (road/home) sequence.

SPURS -5.5 -113 for 1 unit(L)

I like the Bucks and Jazz to take this game UNDER.
I feel the NBA game is easier to slow it down than speed it up and if you don't have the weapons to put up the number, ugly it up.
1 unit each.

MIL/UTA 1st Quarter UNDER 47 -111(W)
MIL/UTA 1st Half UNDER 93 -120(P)
MIL/UTA UNDER 185 -117(W)

Back door moose job, Mike Bibby 3 pointer with 17 seconds left in the game. Kings lose SU in second of back to back, but take both wins ATS.
These line makers are good.
I did take down the UNDERS though.
2-1-1 +0.87 units

Don't over analyze today.
I know, Bulls at Lakers is bouncing, but ever so small in both directions.
West Coast Gauntlet Go Baby Go.
Do not mistake knowledge for wisdom (wow, that sounds profound)

LAKERS -4 at 105 for 2 units(L)

About an hour to go before game time at Staples Center.
If you go to Staples event, or Dodgers Stadium, you might want to try Phillipe The Original, at the south/east side of Chinatown, and grab the french dip sandwiches. It's bang for your buck kind of place, good food and L.A. landmark.

Adding this Total Play.
CHI/LAL UNDER 190 +100 for 1 unit(W) *189 by 1

This is great I could get Bulls +4.5 and Bulls lead the lakers by 2 so I get +6.5 for the game. Easy choice.

CHI 2nd Half +4.5 -105 for 2 units(W)

What's the matter with Los Angeles Lakers? Letting the road worn Bulls come back in the 4th like that on home turf. Seem like I saw a lot of Koby putting up numbers and everyone else not doing anything last Season, they lost most of those games. If they're going to stay the same that's OK we'll make money.
That middle was looking good at middle of 4th quarter, but I'm sure glad I took the Bulls for 2nd Half. That Under 190 was "On the Edge of you seat" type pick. 2 attempts by the Lakers with score at 189. Da Bulls.
2-1 +0.90 units
I'll be back.

I like this spot with Detroit at Dallas. No not Dallas ATS or ML, Total with recent low scoring games on both sides everybody loves the Under.
So much anticipation pushed the opening line down from 187 to 185 (just notched up to 185.5) Mavs are defensive minded with Little General at the helm, but they have been so offensive oriented for so long they can explode on any given game. Dirk loves to score and sometimes it's contagious. And why this spot?
I think Mavs are a team that rises to the occasion, 8-0 Detroit making a visit is a occasion.
Detroit can play ugly ball with the best of defensive team, but what makes this team dangerous is their improved offense.
These two teams trend Over and match up very well.
This Saturday game at the American Airlines Center should be a good one.

DET/DAL OVER 185 -105 for 2 units(W)
DET/DAL 1st Half OVER 91.5 -110 for 2 units(W)
Was not even close. Mavs rises against Pistons.

Another interesting match up is Washington at New Jersey. I just don't see these teams matching up in respective strength and weakness.
My translation is these teams will run up the score.

WAS/NJN 1st Half Over 97.5 +103 for 1 unit(L)
*I might hit this again if it moves my way.
This was a crazy line O/U 200+ for the game?
2nd Half offered 103.5? That's crazy I took the Under.
I not sure what the Books are thinking here.

WAS/NJN 2nd Half Under 103.5 +101 for 2 units(W)

CLE/PHL this one is going to be a high score and the number is on target.
Still went with the Over.
CLE/PHL 2nd Half Over 102.5 -115 for 1 unit(W)

And one more.
CATS/WOLVES 2nd Half Under 94 -110 for 1 unit(L)

Sorry these 2nd Half plays are already under way.
I couldn't post them in time.

OK I'm back. Tracking MEM/UTH playing low scoring game.
Few minutes left in 1st Half. I try to put this one in before the window closes.
MEM/UTH 2nd Half Under 87.5 -108 for 1 unit(W)
This would of been the wrong selection last season as the 2nd Half plays usually swung the other way. I mean look at 1st half Memphis at Jazz scoring 78, the full game Total is 174.5 (-78 = 96.5) 9.5 point difference with 2nd half Total placement.
Maybe the Book is looking for Over takers, but they don't want the players to hit the middle.

Good NBA Saturday. I usually don't play this many games and I'm drained from tracking all of them.

See you players on Sunday.
5-2 +5.92 units

You guys reading my posts, I could almost hear your voices "Clutch, your all over the board and the analysis is not reflecting the games."
I hear ya. Keep in mind I've been around the block and I'm nowhere close to throwing in the towel. I'm going to play through it.

Here's a Old School capping selection for today.
Sonics didn't look Super 2 games ago. How much can change in that short span? Sonics played their best game this season at Boston and there's more room to get better. Specifically their defense needs to improve.
This team was challenged by Weiss, he read the stats to his team - defensive field goal percentage, last in league most points scored against, rebounding percentage - all areas Sonics excelled last season. They still allowed 51.9% shooting to Boston, but contained it to the secondary players, Davis and Pierce, for 43 combined points. On the offense Sonics was solid with 50.6% shooting and dominant 17 offensive boards, Collison was on terror taking down 8 of 17 and 31 assists. I'm also happy to see a solidified starting lineup of Collison at power forward and rookie Johan Petro at center alongside guards Luke Ridnourand Ray Allen and small forward Rashard Lewis.
Bulls are defensive minded after holding their opponents to .422 shooting last season they are currently 7th holding opponents to .431 shooting and .290 from 3 point range (4th best) and Sweetney is a monster.
Chicago has dropped 7 of the last 12 meetings against Seattle including 7 straight at United Center. Bulls last win did come at Key Arena last season.
Rolling with the Sonics fading Bulls West Coast Gauntlet.


SEA -3 at -110 for 4 units(W)
CHI/SEA UNDER 198.5 at -105 for 2 units(W)

Just what the doctor ordered. Take 2 wins and call him in the morning for Saturday's winner.
2-0 +6.00 units

Overnight line for Thursday.
Not a big card, but interesting lines.
I'm sure this will be another public darling.

HOU/SAS OVER 176 -105 for 1 unit(*L)

Houston number goes Under at home, when on the road it's another story.
Besides Spurs improved their perimeter shooting and still driving inside.
I'm not predicting an shootout, somewhere between 180~188 with good support from the bench and good number at the line should accomplish this.
Single unit play because this will surely be a public play and that was the case with Pacers on Wednesday.

It's 14:00 PST.
T-Wolves tough at home, but I don't see them as the contenders they once were. Wizards on the other hand seems to be the team on the rise. They will need to jump ahead early or the Wolves will grind them down.
WASHINGTON +1.5 1st Quarter -112 for 2 units(W)

Almost game time for Rockets and Spurs. I'm not exactly looking to middle the total, but will off load the Public play. I could get lucky....It'll have to be very lucky.
HOU/SAS UNDER 177.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Sorry to Off-Load the Total play before the game, but I just got that sinking feeling the public was in for a slaughter. I wasn't fully convinced last night and I couldn't resist 177.5 with money on the Over side.
2-1 +1.95 units

I was planning to wait, but this game I see two teams heading in different direction and I know the line is going to move away, I already see many -8.
The game is Pacers at Bobcats. The Cats got beat on the backboard against Magic, center Jake Voskuhl went down 32 seconds into the 4th with a left ankle sprain. He would not return to the game on the 1st leg of back to back and when they get home it's not going to get any easier with the Pacers, the Pacers should be at close to full strength for the Bobcats game with Scot Pollard and David Harrison both available for the first time giving the team two true centers. Indy and Cats have had some close games in the past, but this one Pacers look to pull away and close it out. I think Pacers will go wire to wire.

INDIANA -7.5 -110 for 3 units(L)
How did this game go so bad. I think the public got hit here.

I think Lakers hit their low, that last game on the road against Grizzlies was just crushing. Here comes NY Knicks, feeling little better about themselves, but this ain't no short handed Jazz team, it's the embarrassed Lakers that need to show something, especially in their house. No matter where these teams are in the standing your sure to get a good show.

NYK/LAL OVER 180 -108 for 2 units(W)
So what did I learn today? It's good to be against the public.
I didn't understand why the Under was being favored, it even went down to 179.

1-1 -1.30 units

Today I will go against the public perception again.

Denver at Dallas.
This Mav's team is much better than what the record shows.
Denver is not there yet and this would be a good spot for Dallas to make a strong showing. I also like the Under here, but will stay on side only.

DALLAS -7 -103 for 2 units(L)

Added late game.
Clips -1 1st Quarter -105 for 2 units(W)

JAZZ/KINGS 2nd Half Over 94.5 -113 for 2 units(W)

KINGS ML 2nd Half -196 to win 1 unit(W)

BUCKS ML 2nd Half +103 for 2 units(L)

3-2 +0.94 units

I'll take one overnight line.

Chicago at Golden State.
The Bulls West Coast swing has been money for awhile. If you don't know what I'm talking about the Bulls sport 1-38 record since the 1998 Michael Jordan years on this ThanksGiving road trip.
Top it off this is a big revenge match of the 85-84 loss in Chicago, remeber there was a contact at the end of the game with Chandler defending the last basket by Richardson, bad call "No Foul" costing Warriors the game.
coach Mike Montgomery was fined $25,000 and Richardson $20,000 for not leaving the court in a timely fashion.
Golden State will be ready to take this game.

GSW -5 -111 for 3 units(W)
Warriors were gold today.

My slump seem evident with the improvement in line with backers not fearing the Bull ghosts of the Thanksgiving past.

I'm adding a rule breaking pick with NY playing back to back on the road, but against a limping Jazz. I will reason with Knicks momentum and fairly rested line up. They have been leading in early going this road trip.

NYK 1st Half ML +129 for 2 units(W)
1 point win. I'll take it.

Aced it today. Money Line Dog and against the public ATS.
Just when you thought it was safe to fade my plays....Sorry Faders.
2-0 +5.58 units

In making some adjustments I decided to take the late line instead.

Yes, another low number, actually 181.5 I bought the point, looking for my defensive game to catch up.
CLE/ORL UNDER 182.5 -116 for 2 units(L)

This Clippers team on the road can muscle itself if the shooting gets cool and see a slight edge with the Half.
LAC/PHL 1st Half UNDER 99.5 -111 for 2 units(L)

Can't get any breaks. Looks like consistant losers.
0-2 -4.54 units

I hope everyone is having a nice Saturday.
Let's take a look at what's happening in Oklahoma City where the Mavericks will challenge the Hornets for the inside game. The only game where Hornets allowed over 100+ points this season was 11/2 against Cavs, mainly due to LeBrons 31 point performance and it looked as they were caught off guard in the 1st quarter, other games their defense kicked in to bring down their opponents.
Dallas was not playing their defensive game preached by the Little General and AJ expressed his anger after the loss to Sixers, regardless of Dirks early exit, and the Mavs responded against the Cats.
Todays match up have been dominated by Dallas and Hornets will be targeting a win against the Back to back schedule for Mavs. Both teams will try to do it with their Defense.

DAL/HOR UNDER 184 -118 for 2 units(L)

It was a inside game, offense attacking the inside with not much fast breaks, but shot the hell out the basket.
Looks like the saturation point for Under hit it's peak.
I can't believe Dallas had so much legs left on the 2nd of back to back.
But closing line NOH +7.5 was just enough to take DAL down ATS.
In times of slump money management becomes crucial, my plays are 1% single unit, but the main thing is gains.
At the end of the day, week, month, season, Gains nothing else.
So the game goes on.

I have some interest in the late game tomorrow with Knicks visiting Golden State Warriors. Knicks have produced some low scoring games, but 184.5 or 92.25 x 2 seems very reachable at Arena in Oakland.

I'll take OVER 183.5 -121(L)
When your rooting for OT it's usually a lost game.

Adding this play with Seattle Supersonics at Washington Wizards aka Bullets.
The Washington team I still consider Bullets more than Wizards.
I like Washington today to open up fast before Sonics are in a rhythm.

WAS -1 1st Quarter -109(W)
Washington toyed with Seattle today. This should of been the heavy game of the day with quarter, half and game.

Mavericks at Charlotte with Dirk questionable as game time decision and Devin Harris probable with sprained left ankle Dallas might be in for a tough battle.
Even with Mavs working short handed one thing should change from the last Sixers game. No easy baskets and fast breaks will not be as frequent.

MAV/CATS UNDER 192 -103(W)
There you go, thats Maverick defense with Dirk in there to secure the game.
I'd figured he'd be in there today, but went with the higher percentage play.

Let's add Denver ML +161(L) at the Arena. That's just not right with Kings off key, maybe they are due, maybe they'll hit their shots, maybe they'll control the boards.....That's too many maybe's.

Denver got beat bad. I have to stay off the losing end of blow outs.


2-2 -0.21

My Overnight position for Thursday.

CLIPS/HAWKS OVER 186 -111 (W)
ROCKETS/HEAT OVER 172 -125(P) Gary Payton's fault for 1 missed FT.
PISTONS/SUNS UNDER 203 -121(L)

single unit positions and wait for day light.

Totals have moved. I'm staying on my Totals, no changes.
Yes, I could take a middle, but at single unit each I will stay on the attack plan from one direction. No chases tonight. I'll consider taking the early line as the games progress.

I was going to stay off the middle, but I know a opportunity when I see one and this one has a good chance of taking two birds with one stone.

PISTONS/SUN OVER 197.5 -121 for 1 unit(W)
Now if the late game falls between 197 ~ 203

Good thing I took the late Over.
2-1-1 +0.79

Full card this Wednesday. Looking to turn things around and here are my takes, all First Quarter plays.

DALLAS 1st Quarter -1.5 -105 for 2 units(L)
DAL/PHIL 1st Quarter UNDER 50.5 -105 2 units(L)

SAN ANTONIO/CHARLOTTE 1st Quarter OVER 45 +102 for 3 units(W)

I may return to play the late games or 2nd halfs.

DENVER -3 2nd Half -105 for 2 units(W)

Thank you Denver for 4th quarter surge, saved my day.

2-2 +0.86

Today I will go with Sacramento Kings to take this game SU at Arco Arena.
Kings are surging at all level and Pistons have yet to have strong showing on the road.

KINGS 1st Half ML +106 2 units(L)
KINGS ML +115 1 unit(L)
KINGS ATS +2 -107 2 units(L)

This game is dust. I'm in badly need for a turn around. I passed the Orlando pick to take this loser.

0-3 -5.14

New week, new direction. Keeping myself in check I will return to my methodical style of NBA handicapping.

Again I will take my position on a second meeting of recent match up,
Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota TimberWolves.
I watched the opening O/U 179.5 driven down to 177.5, that looked low so I took a Over position and now it's climbed back up to 180.
Clips have long established themselves as a Under team and the Wolves have been Under for past 2 seasons, but as these trends develop the Linemakers will adjust in hopes of getting the numbers closer to 50% and usually in this attempt the early lines will over adjust.
I think this is the case with this game. I see this game between 180~185 and the line is luring Under. Clips have improved their offense and Wolves have solid record against them (12-4 last season) It should be a tight game with both teams hitting 90 points.

LAC/MIN OVER 177.5 at -108 for 2 units(L)

T-Wolves defense was too much in the 3rd quarter. This one just cleared 170

NBA Week 1 Wrap Up

11/1 DAL/PHO UNDER 218 at -116 for 2 units (L) -2.32
0-1 -2.32

11/2 IND -5 at -110 for 2 units (W) +2.00
IND/ORL UNDER 189 at -109 for 2 units (W) +2.00
SAC/HOU UNDER 192 at -119 for 1 unit (W) +1.00
3-0 +5.00

11/3 PHO +4 at -116 for 3 units (W) +3.00
PHO ML at +148 for 1 unit (W) +1.48
2-0 +4.48

11/4 MEM -2.5 at -104 for 1 unit (W) +1.00
MEM -1 1st Quarter at -105 for 2 units (W) +2.00
DEN -3 1st Quarter at -105 for 2 units (W) +2.00
DEN -6 1st Half at -105 for 3 units (W) +3.00
4-0 +8.00

11/5 LAC -2 2nd Half at +102 for 1 unit (L) -1.00
PHO -0.5 1st Quarter at -103 for 2 units (L) -2.06
PHO -1.5 1st Half at -104 for 1 unit (L) -1.04
PHO -2 at -105 for 2 units (W) +2.00
1-3 -2.10

11/6 DEN -1 at -112 for 5 units (L) -5.60

0-1 -5.60

Week 1 10-5 Gain +5.60

Looking back at first week of NBA I may have pushed too much at the end and Batis was right, I should of kept the play in 1-2-3 unit range for single position.
I also fell in love with ATS plays and neglected the Totals, which is actually my strength.
Could of, would of, should of been a monster week.
I'll mix it up fo shizzle my nizzle.

Taking the Starters rested Clips in the Second Half of the Late Game Saturday Night.

LAC -2 2nd Half +102 1unit(L)
What a disappointment. Clips go cold in the 4th qt and allow the Wolves back in the game. Clips takes the coin flip win in OT, but not enough to cover ATS.
KG is a stud. Minny was losing the game in every way, inside, outside, rebound and yet they find the will to come back.


My Overnight position for Sunday. It was the eve before the revenge.
Look for the Nuggets to excel their vertical game at Staples Center.

DENVER -1 -112 for 5 units(L)

I return to find money is free flowing into Lakers and in a rare move the line has moved against me to go to PICK for this game.
You can second guess me, I'm not as hot as I was 2 days ago....Maybe this is the so called "Trap"
For those with these concerns There are no Traps.
Lakers are a big market team in a deep pocket city playing on a Sunday with intoxicated football betters. I should of thought about that last night.
This Nuggets team with good game plan has big advantage on the boards, that should equal high percentage scoring opportunity. I'm tempted to press my wager, but this is big as I will place and must practice discipline.

That was humbling. Lakers crushed the Nuggets wire to wire beating them on the board.....I would not of guessed Chris Mihm would cause so much damage in the post.
Taking my largest single position in one sided loss.
I will look ahead as the whole week was positive.

It's been a busy Saturday.
Utah Jazz spoils the anticipated 2-0 start for the Warriors last night, but what I learned from that game is the difference a good point guard makes or takes away from a team. I really think missing Baron Davis gave Jazz the edge.
OK, Okur is surging, is he going to carry the Jazz? Not with flashes of excellence it has to be consistant. It'll be Matrix doing the damage on this back to back night in Salt Lake City.

PHO 1st Quarter -0.5 -103 2units(L)
PHO 1st Half -1.5 -104 1 unit(L)
PHO -2 -105 2 units(W)

So it wasn't wire to wire, but I hit the 2nd half -2.5 before the line turned -3 at -111 for 2 units turning a small profit.
I'm not going to record the off post win so blog records a loss today.
2-1 loss -1.10 units

I be back with vengeance.

Pinnacle will go under maintenance from 22:00PST to 00:00PST.

I will take a early spot on Memphis -2.5 at -104 (W) [*single unit] and watch the line for a bit.

The line has moved away. These two teams met once in preseason, 10/24 at FedEx Forum 67-65 WNBA like score with Pat Garrity buzzer beater lifting the Magics on a cold, cold, shooting night.
Since that night one thing remains the same and I know the Magics know they lucked out when getting beat 26 to 18 in the paint, 2 to 6 fast break (pathetic fast breaks for both teams) and the Magics continue to give up the inside making them one dementional outside shooting team.
I need to see more out of this Orlando team or I will continue to fade this team.

I like the game breakdown. Look for Grizz to establish early inside outside game.

MEM 1st Quarter -1 at -105 for 2 units (W)

Second, Another breakdown selection with Portland at Denver.
Like I said with the Lakers game analysis last night, Denver's loss at home opener was their own doing. These Nuggets are in need of direction to close out the game and they'll have it tonight. I feel a blow out coming, but I'll take the early game with Denver itching to explode.

DEN 1st Quarter -3 at -105 for 2 units (W)
DEN 1st Half -6 at -105 for 3 units(W)

Sorry, I think the prices have moved.
For those of us about to Rock, I salute you.

NBA FANTASTIC !
Clutch is on a roll.
4-0 +8.00 units *Perfecto for the third day.

I also like to add on Memphis game. Although Grizz takes the ATS win I have reconsidered fading Magic in future game based on what they showed.
40 pts in the paint vs 24 pts for Memphis and 15 fast break pts over 14 for
Grizz.

We'll try to keep rolling with B-Ball.

Suns at Lakers
Did you see Lakers pull one out in Denver? Or should I say Koby pulling it out.
With Anthony and Camby out on foul and with all the turnovers, something like 19 leading to 22 Denver fast break points and lost in the paint, I think the Nuggets blew this Home Opener.
Now Lakers go home to meet the rested Suns at home. You know the Suns have a shorter travel than Lakers returning from Denver. Regardless of non game factors Suns will give Lakers trouble tomorrow, especially if they handle the ball like they did against the Nuggets. Suns still play best in transition and I see them gunning out of the gate at Staples Center.

PHO +4 at -116 for 3 units (W) *damn, the lines moved to +3.5 as I write.

PHO ML +148 for 1 unit (W) *This is now +135

The way Joel Meyers (play-by-play) and Mychal Thompson (color analyst) was going on and on about Lakers on the pre-game show you think these guys are touts....Amare's loss is a big blow, JJ leaving caught the team off guard,
Nash can't carry the team, Than, Smush is super, Brown has talent, Koby's hot, Lamar will come back....
These guys are announcers not handicappers. Beware of getting suckered into these pre-game shows they always favor the home team.
Now they're going to talk about how great Koby, Lamar and Smush played in the losing cause. If you can't contain Suns scoring you're playing Suns game. I should of noted Lakers on back to back game was a solid fade last year and that trend may continue.
2-0 +4.48 units *Perfect for two days.

I was robbed in the NBA Opener, but have not lost my confidence in my early season observation.

This is what I have in mind for day 2 of NBA.

Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic.
Now everyone should know Grant Hill is out, 3~6 weeks, and Head Coach
Brian Hill is shifting to defensive focus. Offense will be relied on Steve Francis and Dwight Howard. Well, preseason clue says Francis is not up to speed yet with 12 PPG 2.50 RPG and 6.3 APG, all below his norm. Howard will develop as the season goes on, but he has yet to take on the role to carry the offense and he need to find the open man. He can create problems in the post for his opposition. I also see this Magic team struggling to score in the paint and/or getting beat in fast break points, signs of disoriented team play.

Pacers arrive with high expectations. I like the scheme they showed in preseason and Magics weakness is the Pacers strength. Control the inside, control the ball with deliberate plays and look for fast break chances.

IND -5 at -110 for 2 units (W) *This line is now -6.5 or -7

IND/ORL UNDER 189 at -109 for 2 units (W)

Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets.
Rockets are solid at Toyota Center this preseason with a perfect record including the game in Laredo, Texas. What stands out is the Rockets shutting out the opposition at home, 84-80 against Orlando, 75-71 against Washington, 88-80 against Utah, (93-85 against Seattle in Laredo) The Rockets have not given up 100 points to any team in preseason, most allowed was 91 against 76ers in Wachovia Center 10/11, and they have not allowed over 80 points at Toyota Center.
Back to back game for the Kings on the road. After getting schooled by the Hornets how will these Kings play?

They will play UNDER 192 at -119 for 1 unit (W)

My name is Clutch and I cap Baskets.
I've published some of today's picks in public forum, but I published them all in my blog.
Got the moose off my back from last night and we're back on track with some winners.
3-0 +5.00 units

NBA Opener, Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns.
Scoring has turn down, Mavs averaged just 92.1 points in preseason and reached 100 point mark twice. They are shooting 46% and 42.1% from 3pt range. Struggling at the line shooting just 73.3%although the offense struggled at times in preseason the defense was solid. Mavs opponents averaged 91.9 pt per game on 43.8% shooting from the floor. Gave up 100 pts once, NY 10/06, and held opponents to below 90 four times.
Look for healthy Marquis Daniels to have a break out year.

Phoenix averaged 9.7 3FGM last season, this preseason they are hitting 10.6 3FGM and yet thier game total have fallen. Nash is still moving the ball well, but lacks the personel to control the paint.
Look for Leandro Barbosa to have a break out year.

DAL/PHO UNDER 218 -116 to win 2.00 units (L)
*Waited little too long on this one as it was 221.5, but you know this still looks Under.

Did I do something wrong or what? Double OT to moose this easy UNDER.
Dallas should not have been able to comeback in the 4th like that...
Loss 1-0 -2.32 units

NBA Futures

The 2005~06 NBA Season is almost upon us. The lines are out at Pinny and I will be focusing on opening day selection.

Before I get to the November play let's take a look at Pacific Division Futures.

Quick look will reveal the wide open field with the likes of Kings and Lakers not having the dominance of yester years then take a look at Phoenix Suns.
Suns came out running and gunning last year, thanks to the scheme of D'Anoni and the smarts of Nash, and now the star big man Amare is out for most of the first half the odds have ballooned to +345.
Though Stoudemire will be missed the nucleus for this team is Nash and this team still holds the players with athleticism to keep heads above water in the paint. There is also the return of Stoudemire during season to give this team some boost.
I'm interested to see how this team will stand against the likes of Detroit, Miami, Denver and San Antonio, also how their game Total will measure, but against the Pacific I think they have a good chance.

PHOENIX SUNS to WIN PACIFIC DIVISION +345

Let's take another position before the regular season.

Denver looks like they will continue to click. Utah's has to show me more.

DENVER NUGGETS +2 at -111 (W)

Just another Pre-Season victory.

This is the final tune up for NBA regular season, that's not only the players but cappers too. Expect the lines to be soft this early and popular teams will get the early action. Let's keep it flat for positions and have some fun.

Grizz at Hawks. Hate to get down on Atlanta so early, they have improved over last season, but still rebuilding and Memphis looks to have a impact year.
Memphis ATS -5 at -110 (W)

Good tune up, I'm ready to go.

Preseason selection for Monday.
Clippers after a impressive win over Dallas will match-up against the Warriors.
Keep in mind on preseason games show different looks as team is evaluating players and plays. I expect Clips to rest the veterans and give the new players more time on the floor.

GSW -3 -118 (L)

These Clips are schooling the Warriors. This game is done.

Lines are out. Keeping watch on preseason NBA, I'll take a early crack at these lines.

Like the new look Lakers. I don't think they'll go far, but we got Bobcats in town giving up on -4.5 pts.
LAL -4.5 -112 (L)

Sun are without Amare, but Nash is running the floor. Well qualified to match up against many in this league.
PHO +3 -110 (W)

Too bad the O/U Total is not out yet. Single unit play.
Good luck Hoop cappers.

Lakers played ugly ball, what's with the all the missed FT?

Suns still playing high octane ball.

ATLANTA (AP) - Atlanta Hawks center Jason Collier died early Saturday after he had trouble breathing and was stricken in his home, his father said. He was 28.
General manager Billy Knight said the cause of death was not immediately clear for the 7-foot, 260-pound player. He said Collier had ``no issues'' in a preseason physical given to all players.
Jeff Collier told The Associated Press his son died in an ambulance on the way to the hospital and did not have any diagnosed health problems apart from his knees.
Team spokesman Arthur Triche initially said Collier possibly died of cardiac arrest, but would not provide details. He later said the team was not sure how Collier died. ``We'll wait until the experts can tell us, but there's no comments about any speculating at all that I'm going to do,'' Knight said. ``Right now we just think about Jason and his family, his wife and a daughter. He was a good guy, a great teammate and a member of our organization. We're going to miss him.''
The Hawks canceled an open scrimmage Saturday because Knight said the team was devastated. The Hawks play an exhibition game Monday at Charlotte, N.C.
``The players took it hard, as you would expect,'' Knight told the AP. ``We'll try to deal with it and keep moving forward.''
Jeff Collier said he received a phone call at 3:30 a.m. Saturday from Jason's wife, Katie, who said her husband was having trouble breathing and quickly turned blue.
``You get a call and it's your daughter-in-law crying saying she's giving him CPR and trying to keep him going,'' Jeff Collier said. ``I guess it took awhile for the paramedics to get there. He had a slight pulse when they took him and he passed away in the ambulance while they took him to the hospital.''
Jeff Collier told the AP by phone from his home in Springfield, Ohio, that his son had knee surgery when he played in Houston.
``Now all of a sudden this comes up,'' he said. ``We don't know exactly what happened. I'm anxious to find out. But I guess it doesn't make a whole lot of difference at this point.''
Collier was a part-time starting center the last two seasons after playing mostly as a backup in three years at Houston. He began his college career at Indiana before transferring to Georgia Tech.
Collier started 44 games last season, averaging 5.7 points and 2.6 rebounds in 13.5 minutes. With the addition of Zaza Pachulia, Collier was not projected as a starter this season but was viewed as a top backup. In two preseason games, Collier averaged 3.5 points and 3.0 rebounds.
Collier was drafted by Milwaukee in 2000 in the first round, the 15th pick overall, and was traded to Houston.
Jeff Collier said Jason had been married to Katie for four years and had a 1-year-old daughter, Elezan.
The elder Collier played at Georgia Tech from 1972-76 and said his son initially decided to wear the same No. 52 he did at Tech.
``He was a beautiful kid,'' Collier said. ``Everybody he touched liked him. He played basketball from the time he was in the fourth grade until now. I don't think the kid was ever in a fight or an altercation.''
Funeral arrangements are incomplete but the family plans a private viewing.
``Jason didn't really care to be a spectacle,'' his father said. ``He would have wanted this to be a quiet thing. Instead of people being grim, he wants them laughing.''