Tuesday, November 29, 2005

My overnight selection for the early line on Kings at Warriors.
With these teams you might lean to the Over, but looking back at the past match ups for 3 seasons there is only one regulation Over and one OT Over which would of ended Under without the OT. The line makers have done well in shading the Over just enough to take the public's money.
Normally I would not take this game early, maybe even let the Total numbers climb and hit the Under, but this match up has both Kings and Warriors on the rise. Yes the recent games have been against below .500 teams, but these teams were also playing on an winning note before getting knocked down by Kings and Warriors.
NO beat MIN at home than SEA on the road before losing to GSW, TOR was on an ATS terror since beating MIA 11/20 SU they kept all the games close on the road to take ATS wins until GSW. UTA demolished MIL at home and went on to beat SEA on the road Warriors stopped them too.
King will be 2nd leg of back to back, but after storming out of the gate and showing 3 strong quarters, they played all reserves in the 4th quarter against the Bobcats. Before that they edged out Toronto that was on a roll. Before that was the Nets on the tough West Coast swing, but on this night Nets were shooting 53.8% from the field and Kings still beat them.
This might be the type of game that's long been expected with Kings starters picking up where they left off at the end of 3rd quarter against the Cats and Golden State fighting fire with fire. Both teams have been very active in the paint and if the shooters find their range this one should go into 200+ points.

SAC/GSW Over 197.5 -110 for 3 units(W)
Whoop there it is.

Now it's Wednesday late morning and I'm ready for the day.
I will apply the theory I used Tuesday. Offense does not suffer over defense on back to back road game. Why wouldn't Suns try to out run an opponent coming to their house on a back to back?
The opening Total was shaded Under and caught momentum.
Many indicators and past performance will point to Under, but beware as Under oriented teams like, MEM, UTA, DET, have played at America West Arena with their Under backers getting burned and the Totals on these games were all set in the 195~199 range.

IND/PHO Over 193.5 -114 for 2 units(W)
Just like the MAV/MIL game yesterday, 200 at end of regulation.

One more addition. I know the players love this Under and they could very well be right. I just find this Total set for this match a bit high and if you were to look at the 1st quarter and 1st half the Under shade is more than obvious. I consider this number as luring Under and usually the opposite holds true for the outcome.
Clippers are not the same team from last season and Cavs looks ready to explode. This is a line play.

LAC/CLE OVER 198 -106 for 1 unit(W)
OT take this one clear Over.

That ain't working that's the way to do it.
3-0 +6.00 units

3 comments:

Batis84 said...

The system, which I used to play last Season on Wednesday (went +47-30). Previous Wed went +3-0.
Wednesday is the Day for Home-Favs (with spread lower 9 pts):

Cleveland -8
New York -1.5
Boston -1.5
Phoenix -3
Seattle -6.5

*except Golden State Warriors, because the line on it has appeared too late. This game isn't of my look, though GS with -5 spread should taken.

Most of all I like Boston -1.5

Batis84 said...

Baron Davis's condition is not so good right now. He had lost shooting skills in previous game and served out more assists.
I suppose, the point slump of cappers that they are in love of Baron. Therefore, the Warriors are favs.
The line is mendacious. Baron could upset his backer's plans.

Batis84 said...

Wednesday Home Favourite Covered in 4 cases of 5.

+4-1 tonight (+5-1 including Golden State.)
Overall +8-1 $

Simple Mathematic.