Picks are starting to go my way, not on fire, but making progress.
What's working? Well, the line makers are getting hot and that means the public gets burned. That's the big picture for ATS.
As for Totals, low looking games are going Under and vice versa.
Tuesday selection
When games are played at this level there are constant adjustments being made to reach the optimum balance of offense and defense. Washington started by showing some defense in early November, but slowly the score climbed and peaked with Seattle (137-96 on 11/11) from there it moved back down to last game against NJ (83-89 on 11/19 the line makers projected high scoring game here with O/U at 201.5)
Denver also not cracking the century mark in all but 3 games so far and last time was 11/13 against the Timberwolves. Since that game 80, 91, 95, 99, looks like it's on the climb. Yes the Nuggets are woeful on the road, but porous too and they must be thinking how to turn on their offense on the road.
The books do not have a good read on this game, I saw more than the normal variances between the books in the opening line.
DEN/WAS OVER 195.5 -107 for 2 units(W)
I hesitated on my second pick and missed the better price.
Boston at Cleveland looks like a Cav winner, but the C's have played them well at Cleveland. Matter of fact Celtics have won 7 out of 9 trips to the state of Ohio. But the match up sure looks good for the Cavs, West is not fast enough for Jones and Snow will set up LBJ and Hughes on the attack.
Blount will have his hands full with Gooden at Power Forward, Gooden loves to play Boston. Blount is shooting well and he will need all the fire power to fight Gooden with good offense. Big Z in the middle, he is one of the top scoring centers in the East. LaFrentz and Blount will need to put the ball in open court and play transition ball, make the Big Z run. Cavs also have Marshall scoring big off the bench.
BOS/CAV 1st Quarter OVER 51.5 -112 for 1 unit(W)
BOS/CAV 1st Half OVER 102 -120 for 1 unit(W)
I would take Over 203 or 203.5, but limiting my plays today.
This one is a gut play with so many loving the Wizards back home.
DEN +2 1st Half +102 for 1 unit(W)
Nothing but "W"s. Totals are starting to cash.
4-0 +5.02 units
6 comments:
>Well, the line makers are getting hot and that means the public gets burned.
Can't agree with it, Clutch.. Simply, Monday is the UnderDog Home Day. This trend lasts almost 2 years, Monday by Monday.. In MLB, in NBA..
I think, linemakers caught their course and they know how to break Public on the first day of the week.
Bookies aren't hot, while public piously believes their favourites!
I had broken lines and higher prices on Utah and Sacto tonight. So, it means that public put down as many units as the line had to
change. Tons of money got burned today with Milwaukee and *Spurs*. So sorry to see that every Monday :)
Pay attention. GL on Tuesday!
I rarely look at day trends, but that's interesting. I gauge the ATS line by looking at cover.
Kings 2 straight up losses with
2 ATS cover wins is an pretty good line prediction.
I will watch the Moday Home Underdogs, did we discuss this last year?
>I will watch the Monday Home Underdogs, did we discuss this last year?
You may forget this. But Monday is usually the day, when losing serie stops and Home UnderDog looks seriously! I picked only UnderDogs on Monday last two seasons and you didn't pay attention on it.
You can go with Home Dogs or if something scares, the better choice is missing.
Just imagine, who wants to be a Kings backer against *Spurs*??!! They must be Crazy! But it's true.. :)
Monday Dogs went +18-8 ATS last season. Math Stat continue researches.
I didn't point it stronger last year, but before my pick I always noted in letters:"Monday is the Under Dog day.."
Be careful
I should test the last season's researches.
Tuesday:
Boston +9.5
Portland +10
Houston +9.5
Toronto +10
Utah +10
Most of all like Houston +9.5
Good luck tonight Clutch
Thanks Batis, Looks like Perfecto tonight.
My MS got slumped on lovely total, while you made nice NBA day! Congrats!
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