NBA Sunday

Minnesota Timber wolves at Denver Nuggets
Everyone knows this is a bottom team against elite team match that opened at -16 for home team. Needless to say expected blow out. But you should be aware of dropping line and not so impressive Denver ATS. This match up also comes up on interesting sequence of Nuggets SU win NO COVER against NYK at home. Fading double digit favorite after a No Cover is not a bad idea. Wolves last game was a double digit blow out loss against PHO which should be a motivation on this game. Big loss at POR back in 11/11 inspired following game at DAL, ATS loss by only -1.5 and 11/21 loss followed by ATS COVER at LAC.
How about a Minnesota back door COVER.

TIMBER WOLVES +14.5(W)

No back door. How about a SU win going away. Yeah, I'm a bad man.

NBA Wednesday

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers.
This match up regardless of home court has trended UNDER for a long time. Some might consider it nature of this match up. However the odds makers have raised the bar to 183.5 a number not seen between these two teams since 190 high mark on 11/19/2008 that's 7 match ups ago. New era basketball and I'm going to buck this trend today. The low end Total below 190's are going OVER and Cavs have scored 100+ 4 out of last 5 road games. Detroit very capable of putting up 90's and I'll take the OVER.

OVER 184(W)

The UNDER nature is still there, but not this low.

NBA Saturday

Points will cost premium.
My theme tonight for Detroit at Washington. Needless to say Saunder's first match up against Detroit since being let go will play a role. However the "Insiders" knowledge will not stand against the loss of 3 point guards. arenas playing with calf injury and Randy Foye sprained right ankle will be a game time decision. Detroit was able to dominate the Bobcats in last game, but considering the changes in these teams I'm not sure if Pistons will show their cohesiveness on the road. The nature of this game going Over in Washington has changed and you should not be deterred by the low number. My pick here is the Under 186.

UNDER 186 at -105 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.05 units

NBA Thursday

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers.
Wolrd Champion Lakers will take on the hot streaking Suns. I'm not sure if Suns will keep it on overdrive, but getting 8 points will get some backers. But 8 points have some meaning behind it like 7 games in 10 days or 4 in 5. That means too much Lakers at Staples Center

LAKEERS -8 at -104 for 1 unit(W)

1-0 +1.00

NBA Monday

Minnesota T-Wolves at Golden State Warriors.
Keep in mind Wolves and Warriors coming off double digit losing margin. Minnesota's second game giving up triple-teens plus this season. Warriors has not held any opponents below 100 and last game in Sacramento giving up 120 in regulation. That was the second most this season.
Assertion here is defensive number to improve and the rising total to be too lofty.

MIN/GSW UNDER 215 at -109 for 1 unit(L)

0-1 -1.09 units

NBA Thursday

Spurs at Jazz. There's a sinking feeling in Salt Lake City and the wagering public can feel it. You know the play on San Antonio and Jazz has narrowed and in this situation you take the slumping home team.

UTAH JAZZ +1(W)

Finally a slam dunk!

NBA Tuesday

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks.
This is a interesting match up with Dallas returning home after the stint with the two teams in L.A. Winning both and brimming with confidence. Meanwhile Jazz upset at home against the new look Houston. Also dropped the opener at Denver with the lone win coming against the Clipper. Although Mavs giving -6.5 points seems well in range for Mavs coming to form, but Jazz at this point is very dangerous. The blow from Houston at home is equal to a wake up call. My take is the Jazz to cover in Dallas.

UTAH JAZZ +6.5(L)

Late game Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trailblazers.
Seemingly low total looks awfully suspicious, but Hawks poised to put up score which will likely be matched by the home Blazers. That looks Over to me.

ATL/POR OVER 192(L)

Off to a bad start. It'll turn around.