Early line anyone?
Not pulling the trigger yet, but I will wait for the Half Game lines to take my play. Dallas at Orlando, I see players like the recent Over trend with both of these teams. I don't see it that way. Here are two teams with strong defensive tendencies coming off losing games allowing opponents to score in triple digits respectively. I see both teams stepping up the "D", nothing easy will be a give me in the paint. With that said I think 188 is a very sharp line, I would of taken the Under at 190 or better, but at this Total I'm going to need the Public to help push to the number higher, I think there's a good chance.
The half game line will be shaded Over, take the Under 95 or better.
Also consider 1st Quarter at Under 48 or better.
Keep in mind Public money will go Over so pick your entry point carefully.

Lines are out.
DAL/ORL 1st Quarter Under 48.5 -108 for 1 unit(L)

DAL/ORL 1st Half Under 96 -108 for 1 unit(L)

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MIL at DET is another game Total I will be watching at 189.5
This is a spot for the score to drop, Bucks are not going to get close to 132, but that doesn't make this game Under 189.5. The Pistons with 4th quarter close out of Dallas, wire-to-wire win against 76ers seems to lead to schooling of Bucks, but Bucks are brimming with scoring confidence which has produced +99 points scoring 4 out of last 5 with Over cashing all 4 times, opponents have also scored +99 points in 4 of last 5

I'll be back.

OK, this is what I'm going with.

MIL/DET 1st Half Over 94 -109 for 1 unit(W)

1-2 -1.16 units

I know, I've never published a Prop. wager, but here is one I'm backing tonight. Here is a spot for Suns offense to correct it's flaws. Specifically the offense out of the gate should improve with Amare out of the play scheme.
Now Suns can refocus on Matrix slashing to the basket with no regards to who's doing what in the paint. Let's look for good spacing and patented ball movement by the Suns.

PHO/IND GAME
SHAWN MARION TO SCORE OVER 20.5 -110 for 1 unit(W)
*Holy cow the price has moved to -150 !

How about 29 points.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Simple bounce back play on the Suns out of the gate. I didn't study too hard on this one.

PHO -1.5 1st Quarter -111 for 1 unit(L)
That what I get for not doing any homework.

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Last game of the night. Spurs vs Clips in Half time.
Home team adjustment to close the score.

LAC -1 2nd Half -107 for 2 units(L)

0-2 -3.25 units

BetCrimes still having problems posting stats? I may have to try and catch him in public forum. His charts are great forecast indicator, it's like going fishing and he tells you where the fishes are biting. Regardless of your fishing success or failure, you're fishing in the right spot.

Well we are back to Monday Dog Day which has failed to cash in the past two tries. Last night's NBA had Nets upsetting Pistons at home and Sonics at the buzzard to take out San Antonio at home must of hit the wallets of Fav backers.
Nets are the home dogs today playing the second leg of B2B, road - home game. It's the final stretch, Nets are pulling ahead in the Atlantic and they are hot right now 8-2 with 8 win streak in their last 10 games. How are they in B2B?
This year Nets have not lost 2nd of B2B on which they won the 1st game.
But this is not a easy dog, Suns are very tough on winning teams with 21-8 ATS and they are catching the Nets who toppled Detroit at home with no rest.
Public and Sharps backing the Suns, ATS opened Suns -2 moving to -3.5/-4
Total opened 209.5 dropped 3 points to 206.5, even this number looks pretty high. Books are expecting big numbers on the scoring bounce back spot, still looks too high.

NJN +3 1st Half -104 for 1 unit(W)

PHO/NJN Under 2nd Half 101.5 +103 for 1 unit(W)
Win by the hook

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I also have a short game with WAS/GSW.

WAS/GSW 1st Half OVER 103 -116 for 1 unit(L)

Having posting issues. Publishing is not appearing with first entry.
How do I fix this? Is it the size? I don't think it's that big.
2-1 +0.84 units

Something about the Hawks makes Mavs a tough pick today. We have the Sharps backing Atlanta line has moved from Home dog Atlanta +8 to +6.5
This is a case of Mavericks NOT covering speculation. Dallas as good as they are, 7-3 SU wins last 10 games, but ATS are 4-6 last 10. Looks pretty good.
I'm not biting. I like Dallas to cover ATS for the first quarter. Atlanta has failed to cover 1st quarter ATS 7-3. Numbers are good as taking opponents SU.

DAL -2 First Quarter -105 for 2 units(W)

I like this game to go Under. Dallas score peaked with 121-122 loss to Golden State with Avery Johnson steaming about no defense for the Mavs.
Dallas have not recorded back to back Over in past 10 games.
Atlanta coming off 106-115, another high regulation number especially the score they gave up.

DAL/ATL UNDER 197 -116 for 2 units(W) *buy 1 point

Good day.
2-0 +4.00 units

Working on turn around at the Association.
I think my best advise of the day is take XMLB or NHL on the other blog link.
But if you have some money just burning a hole in your pocket and insist on playing the hardcourt you've come to the right place.

Here we go.

The Nets scoring surge topped by 41 point 4th quarter, 112 points against 100 for the home team Wizards.
Minny scored 100 points against 96 for the home team Heats.
Without getting into the details of my number breakdown, I will simply say
both teams peaking in score and this match up will go Under.
I think the number will go my way, waiting to pull the trigger.
Right now the number is 184, open was 181.5 and you can buy 1.5 points at Pinny.

Got it.
NJN/MIN UNDER 185.5 -133 for 2 units(W)

The game went accordingly.
1-0 +2.00 units

Back on the short game.

SAC/LAL 1st Quarter Over 51 -115 for 1 unit(L)

The picks are becoming "fade's"
0-1 -1.15 units

Big card tomorrow and though I'm staying off the early lines here are some that stands out for deeper look.

NJN/WAS UNDER 195
Bias on strength of Nets defense and rarely does Nets match up end in both teams scoring 99+ in regulation. Nets are rolling which means defense is working. Money flowing Over and worth watching.

HOU/DAL
Mavs will play up tempo against opponent coming in 2nd of back to back.
I'd speculate 1st half Over and 2nd half Under, maybe Game Over 176~177.
I'm thinking the numbers are sinking too low when Yao's game has improved .

MIA/MIN UNDER 198
This is a high number for these two teams.

PHO -6, the public play?

I'll be back.

It's late morning, 11:30 PST, and looking at what I liked early has nothing jumping out.
NJ at Washington Under play has moved 1 point down.
Miami at Minny Under dropped to 195
Phoenix is -5.5 and I'm starting to think Jazz will cover.

I still like early scoring in Houston at Dallas. Yao dominant inside, Rockets out scored Clips in the paint and beat them on the glass. Offensive rebounds for 2nd chance shots made up 42% shooting to improve scoring output over 90+ team points. Dallas owns the match up, 12 win out of 15 games, and at home Mavs have won 6 out of 7.
This looks to be another Mavs signature game with Dallas scoring over 99+ points holding opponents below 99- points.

HOU/DAL 1st Quarter Over 44 -105 for 2 units(L)
HOU/DAL 1st Half Over 88.5 -105 for 1 unit(L)
Come back from a nice day at the ball park only to find my NBA plays were crap.
0-2 -3.15 units

Weekend is almost over..... I was too busy running around didn't get a chance to post my plays, but let move on to Monday home dogs.
There are two.

Rockets will host the hot Los Angeles Clippers. Houston having lost 4 of last 5, team scored aboved 90+ only once in last 5 (88 points twice and 77 points twice) How are the Clips? just 5 wins out of last 6, 2 out of last 3 road win.
But you know the Rockets dominate the Clips at home, Rockets still strong in the paint with good front court size.
Houston opened +4.5 home dog now I see +5 across the board with Bodog showing +5.5 Lets watch this line.

Portland will have a turn around game hosting the Bucks. First game at Milwaukee Blazers stalked the Bucks and despite missing Zack Randolph tied the game 9 times and lead changed hand 6 times. When everything was done and over Bucks 97-93, Portland covered ATS with +11.5 points.
Blazers are Bucks nemesis and Blazers have covered for the past 2 seasons.
Oh yeah, Zack Randolph will play Monday at home.
Portland opened +1.5 and now +2 with Pinny.

Monday morning 09:10 PST
I'm feeling the basketball wagerline has shifted. It's the March Madness affect increasing squares and causing over flow into NBA.
The numbers are moving to Dogs across the board.
Stay on target.

Blazers +4 is the play. This looks strong as this line has run away too far.

POR +4 -102 for 3 units(L)

That's the second week this trend has failed to cash.
I thought I had a great ATS with +4 as the game started with POR +2.5 and I even thought Blazers had chance to take this SU.
The line on the Road Favs may have adjusted, but 1 half both Home Dogs won.
0-1 -3.06 units

Does Pistons have a problem? Last game against the Knicks, 2nd half, sure looked unmotivated. Taking a loss should be a wake up call.
Still playing the short game.

DET -2 1st Quarter -105 for 1 unit(W) (it's -113 now)

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Lets try one more.

SAS -2 1st Quarter -108 for 1 unit(L)
Should of known better.

1-1 -0.08 units

I've been watching the Dallas at Washington line and this is one of those tricky line the books have put out. I'm not sure if this is a let down spot for the Mavs or historical match up favoring Wizards at home, but the Mavs are very balanced team right now, home or away.
But you have high consensus on Mavs with line not moving which is a red flag indicator. So I'll pass on the sides.
What I do see is the score in 1st half to exceed the limit with potential carry over into the 2nd half. I do see 1st half clearing triple digits and 2nd half to tighten.

DAL/WAS 1st Half OVER 100 -133 for 1 unit(W) *Buy -1.5 points from 101.5

That's all for tonight ladies and gents. See you all for the weekend action.
Notice Mavs clamp down in the 2nd Half......went under the 2nd half number and under for game.
1-0 +1.00 unit

Greeting Players. Hope my writing finds everyone well.
I'm going to try and hang in striking distance.
The game, as it's played on court, is a game of balance and adjustments.
I see handicapping these lines the same way.
The league will take shape and numbers will come together.
It's matter of time and usually hits me like a brick. Until that time I will tread lightly. I also have MLB in the horizon.

Some say quarter plays have less value. That all depends, sure numbers are shaded reflecting the favs and totals are normally set little higher. I consider this amplified byproduct of the over night moneyline. I don't see 76'ers making early stops, but I do feel adjustment will come during the game. Sonics will want to set the tone early.

SEA/PHL 1st Quarter OVER 52.5 -105 for 1 unit(W)
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I'm having publishing difficulties. Hope this shows up.

MIA 2nd Half -9.5 -102 for 1 unit(W)

Sorry for the posting problem.
2-0 +2.00 units

One play today and not much else. I like the Wizards game right now and once again I will looks for the Cats to hold their own.

WAS/CHA 1st Quarter OVER 50.5 -110 for 1 unit(L)
How in hell did I lose this Over. This went Over all the way, except the 1st quarter by the hook, missed FT's and opportunities. This one would go Over 8 out of 10 times. Bad luck is haunting me.

0-1 -1.10 units

Cappers like the Magic today and why not Orlando on the move catching Indy in a let down spot. I take this play.

ORL +6.5 -106 for 2 units(L)

Thinking of playing the 2nd half lines.
Stay tuned.

Oh yeah, I'm playing the Knicks too. Didn't want to be redundant.
It did go to +3

NYK +3 +100 for 2 units(L)
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2nd Half Play on:
ORL 2nd Half ML +127 for 1 unit(L)
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Nets PK 1st Quarter -112 for 2 units(L)
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Knicks 2nd Half PK -101 for 2 units(L)
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MIN/LAC 1st Quarter Under 49.5 -110 for 3 units(W)
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MIN 1st Half +4 -108 for 3 units(W)
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MIN 2nd Half +8 -107 for 3 units(L)
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NJN/HOU 2nd Half Under 91 +103 for 3 units(W)

That was too many games, but recovered early losses.
3-5 -1.95 units

Batis Bet on NBA Monday

Posted record: +8-5, +7.69 units

Monday is the Home Dog Day. Consensus is 73% with Denver. New Yawwk has a nice home record: +2-10 last 12 home games since Jan, 16.

New York +2.5 1.93 (2 units) Loss

Unfortunately, home dogs didn't cover tonight..

Looks like the betting public loves Lakers and Sonics to score, but that's not based on fundamentals of this match up. Lakers are winning with good defense and Sonics front court is sporting a different style as Seattle also tries to improve on defense. I'll take the score to land under this number

LAL/SEA UNDER 213.5 -105 for 3 units(L)

Got to take a spot on my home team.
LAL 1st Half -4 -105 for 1 unit(L)
64-55 Sonics at the Half.

LAL/SEA UNDER 2nd Half 107 +102 2 units(L)

Do you think the Knicks are jellin' ? I'm starting to think so, even Francis looks content in coming off the bench. Jalen is coming up big, Crawford and Curry playing better.
How about the Cats? I don't think these guys are going away. Injury problems have plagued this team, but they will have their core guys on court.
As the lines indicate this game to be close and offensive in nature.
OT would not be a surprise.

Going across the board OVER's

NYK/CHA 1st Quarter OVER 52 -114 for 2 units(W)
NYK/CHA 1st Half OVER 104 -111 for 2 units(W)
NYK/CHA OVER 203 -110 for 2 units(W)

1-2-3 hello, good evening and good night.
3-0 +6.00 units

I'm back with some games already under way.
Indy and Hornets doesn't look like the "Under Team" they used to be.
I'm sure that's where the problem lies, both teams are getting pourous allowing 99+ points in their last 2 games.
I see better stops coming from both sides.

IND/NOH UNDER 185 -103 for 1 unit(W)
I missed posting 2nd half under 92.5
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Bucks 2nd half has good value

MIL PK 2nd Half -110 for 1 unit(W)

Bounce back Friday.
2-0 +2.00 units

With the anticipation Over expression reversing today I see the match up in the valley of the Suns against the visiting Spurs.
Spurs had their win streak snapped by the Clippers in their continuing trouble on the 2nd of B2B. Popovich raised his white flag when he pulled his regulars with minute and half remaining, typical of Pops to let the starters watch from the bench as Clips closed out with 14 point lead, Spurs lacked energy as they were heavily outboarded 28 to 40 and outshot 44.2% to 52.1%, looked like Clips beat Spurs at their own game. That's a strong likelihood of Spurs defense stepping up today.
Suns made the incredible rally to take the game against the Hornets without Nash for most of the game, but ended the streak of 5 Overs in dramatic fashion, -21 points Under the total.
I guess the public doesn't see that as any significance, but I see that as a sign.
The Total moved to 201 and I could buy it up to 202.5.
I'll watch this a bit.

Money is moving Under 98 1st Half, I don't know if 201 will improve any further. I'm taking position with 1.5 point buy.

SAS/PHO UNDER 202.5 -123 for 1 unit(L)
Oh my god, 67 point 1st quarter. Unless there is an single digit quarter this play is dead. 2nd Half Under anyone?
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Denver at Sixers just coming to close of 1st Half.
This is a set up for 2nd Half Over.

DEN/PHL 2nd Half OVER 102.5 -109 for 1 unit(L)
I needed that Krover lay up to go in and OT.

0-2 -2.32 units

What's happening Cappers? Association action under way. I'm pressed to get this published. These teams traded off 1st & 2nd quarter, but I expect scoring output to improve, looking like a good 2nd half game.

CLE/TOR 2nd Half Over 100 -107 for 1 unit(W)
Sorry I forgot to put the Total number, but 100 never changed.

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Chicago at Detroit also under way and this is looking like an Pistons 2nd half play. Lets see where the line will land.

DET 2nd Half -9.5 -110 for 1 unit(W)
Good job to Batis on this game Total winner.
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Jazz to step up the second half.

UTA 2nd Half -3 -113 for 1 unit(W)

Clutch surging in the 2nd Half.
3-0 +3.00 units

I've been busy all day. I didn't get a chance to work on the games, but lots of action on the board. I might jump in on 2nd half play or late game with Spurs/Clippers.

Play it again Sam.
CLIPPERS ML 1st Quarter +111 for 1 unit(L)

Could of gone my way, but didn't. Clippers playing much better than score shows at the half. That's a sign of Champions getting it done on a bad night, second of back to back night.

I'm liking the way Clips are playing at home, but this is the Spurs and they are a second half team like the other contenders in this league.
I'll play the Over as low scoring first have all posted 2nd half over.

CLIPS/SPURS 2nd Half Over 91.5 -114 for 1 unit(W) (This price shot up)

Ah, It was Clippers all the way, shouldn't of played them short and I should of pounded that OVER!
1-1 -0.11 units

OK boys and girls my plays may have gone through ups and downs, my play methods have swung too many times and things have to change around here. My purpose is not a diary, I need to put up winners.

What do we know about the occurrence on Mondays in the Association?
Yes, it's the Home Dog Plays.

Here are the selections:
PHO/NOK+5 *Isn't this interesting? Public thought here is pound the Suns.
MIA/CHA+7.5 *Another strong public candidate.
SAS/LAL+4 *And another

Now it's not fail proof, but very good trend paying dividends courtesy of Batis. Let's watch the line gyration shall we.

I'm back looking at these games and I must say, not much moves.
I think the sharps are on to these games and so are the books. From the looks of things I'd say sharps have the bigger stakes and squares scratch their heads thinking "Why is the money going the other way?"

Phoenix is on B2B coming off an upset win against the power house Dallas and I was thinking they might relax, but Suns are tough on back to backs as they are a collective that plays on momentum and Hornets coming off their worst 2nd half beating showed how young team can collapse. Still Sharp plays are on 1st Half with Hornets getting +2.5 points.

Miami Heat against the Cats at home might be the better home dog choice.
Wade may not get into gear right away and I think this game has a better chance of Heat underestimating their opponent.

CATS +4 1st Half -117 for 1 unit(W)

I'm going to work on Lakers game a bit more.
Oh what the hell, home dogs are coming out of the gates. Contender teams are slow to start. Double or nothing.

LAKERS ML 1st Quarter +121 for 1 unit(W)

Love the Cats! Hornets doing it too in the 1st Half.
I still can't make up my mind with Laker and Spurs.
This record may change by the end of the day.

Lakers take the 1st quarter with balance.

2-0 +2.21 units

Suns and Mavs did not go Under, maybe I can read into some games after all.
I didn't play the Total and I'm staying light with 1 quarter play.

Chicago seems to have more pop out of the gate on the road and Cavs slow start causing last 5 home average to fall close to 2 points. I feel some adjustments in this game with fast moving 1st quarter before settling down.
If I was hitting higher percentage on my picks I would take this game Over across the board with 1st Half Over 95 or 95.5 and Game Over 191.5 , but I'll just play one.
Based on Cleveland turn around game. All Cavs did from last game to today is work on plays against Bulls where as Bulls had a B2B meeting with NYK team.
Bulls also have tendencies to string two triple digit games.

CHI/CLE 1st Quarter Over 47.5 -105 for 1 unit(L)
My plays are tanking bad. Good thing I saw BetCrimes writing on MEM/LAC game. I played the 2nd Half Grizz +3 to even up my loss and really made up ground by taking a Oscar prop play I published in Sharp Plays. Too bad I can't take any credit, but I'll take the cash.

1-0 -1.05 units

I'm looking at 1 quarter at a time. Heat makes impact start with little rest and it's that time of the year for Miami to play for keeps.

ATL/MIA 1st Quarter OVER 51 -111 for 1 unit(L)

This play takes the cake for this week. Knicks win on the road and Lakers knock out the Pistons. What's next? Suns vs Mavs going Under?
I'll be at the ball park, The Papago park to be specific where Angels will meet up with the A's for some Cactus League action. I'm going to gear up for the start of MLB 2006!

0-1 -1.11 units

Here's a early, early take on Dallas 2nd of B2B with the pesky Bobcats.
Mavs win or lose at San Antonio the second game has the making of no cover against the spread with 13.5 points, even....dare I say.... an upset.
Cats have posted a SU win and 2 ATS wins in a row. So far 3-2 ATS on this road trip with one of the loss coming by the hook 0.5 points against the Suns.

CHA +13.5 -105 for 2 units(L)
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Another 2nd of B2B is da Bulls at MSG. I don't think the Knicks are built for 99+ points and they will need to win the battle of boards. I think Bulls first game will be below 100 points. With mid 90's as tonights scoring projection
with second of back to back falling lower.

CHI/NYK UNDER 202.5 -105 for 2 units(L)
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Late addition.
Clips to break the losing streak in Salt Lake City 32 out of 33 and they haven't had much luck lately either. Clips are the better team here.

LAC -3.5 +101 for 2 units(L)
Down by 10 in the half.
LAC -4 2nd Half -105 for 2 units(W)

The Association has been tough on me lately.
1-3 -4.20

While we wait for Pinny to put up the lines here are my thoughts.
First of all this is the match for the top team in Texas and third match of this season. I remember the second match (12/01/05') with Spurs winning 92-90 at Dallas, I played the early line SAS -2 and late players got killed on SAS -2.5, Dirk had a off night and missed the shot to tie.
Mavs has lost 5 of their last 7 meetings, including three straight in San Antonio. Six of their last eight games have been decided by 10+ points.
Out of the last 11 meetings Dallas has scored 99+ points 4 times and Spurs 2 times. Spurs also in that period scored under 80 points 3 times.
Josh Howard and Keith Van Horn will be returning to the line up for Mavericks.
Mavs are coming into this game hot with 6 straight wins and 12 straight home wins, but ATS margin is narrowing, last one squeaked by with 1.5 points, before that they did not cover. Spurs too are heating up and crushed NYK in their last outing, they did have problem covering small ATS and losing ATS after double digit margin cover.
I'll be back with a pick for this one.

I like the home team, but I'm not going to give +5 points to Dallas.
I'll buy 1 point for the 1st half Spurs ATS and take the home court.
Looking for a clamp down game, but still watching the line.

SAS -2 1st Half -123 for 2 units(L)

DAL/SAS 2nd Half UNDER 91.5 -105 for 4 units(L)


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Cleveland at Chicago game I'm thinking the toll of back to back Detroit & Sacramento game will show in Chicago. Bulls are mediocre 25-31 SU & ATS, but you'll need to go back 19 games for home loss with Bulls as a favorite in regulation. I will target 2nd half Under given they hit 95~99 1st half.

CHI -4 -105 for 1 unit(L)
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That ened ugly and that would normally drive me crazy, but the Hoop Gods decided to throw me a bone and behold a parlay card I picked 7 plays in NCAA Baskets somehow hit giving me the largest single day winning for 2006 so far. I want the plays to be good, but I don't mind getting lucky.

3-0 -7.71 units