NBA Tuesday

It's raining in L.A. not a good day to go out. I'm sure the Freeways will be screwed for rush hour. If you can't leave early mind as well stay late.
I was looking at two games and narrowed it to one. The game I passed was Seattle at Dallas -12 which I like Mavs laying points, but remembered the sides were killing me.
So I'll go with Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers Total 188.5 O/U. Boston will have Wally Szczerbiak, but he will play on short leash. Boston showed no energy getting out boarded 51-38 against Wizards and bench scored only 12 points. So I expect better effort from C's. The current roster just does not have the fire power to out score their opponents. They will need to narrow their attempts and get high percentage conversions. Indy after loosing to Detroit should be eager to get back to winning and that means defending the home court.

BOS/IND Under 188.5 at -110 for 2 units(L)

Sorry for late publishing.
See if I can crunch another game for make up.
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Lakers at Knicks Over 204 at -110(OFF LOAD)

I don't care if Kobe's out.
Forget the Over in New York. Let's just stay with my other choice with Dallas -12 and Sonics/Mavericks Over 100 First Half and 199 Game.

DAL -12 at -110 for 2 units(W)
SEA/DAL First Half Over 100 at -110 for 2 units(W)
SEA/DAL Over 199 at -110 for 2 units(W)

3-1 +3.80 units

NBA Monday

It's back to Monday.
Portland Trailblazer at New Orleans Hornets.
This game Total will play out with two different halfs. Hornets are keeping the scoring low, but breaking 179~180 mark can be reached with good FT's.
Looking for First Half to fall below.

POR/NOH First Half Under 90 at -110 for 2 units(L)
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Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves Over across the board.
-110 at 2 units each.
First Quarter 52.5(W)
First Half 105.5(W)
Game 210(W)
3-1 +3.80 units

NBA Sunday

Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons.
I like the game in Detroit to go Under. Yes, the Pacers have been giving up points (1/12, 1/15, 1/18, 1/20 four straight Overs with opponents pouring in triple digits) than the tide shifted with 3 straight Unders, one game was a OT Under. The Palace has always been tough for Pacers to score and the books have shaded the number. I'll still go for the Under.

IND/DET Under 185.5 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

The number is higher now and I understand the dynamics have changed. Current form on both teams looks to take this Over easy, but nothing is easy. Oddsmakers made this call expecting Over action and I should of been smarter to wait on this Total. I'll increase the size at 187.5 or better and take First Half Under.

IND/DET Under 187.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)
IND/DET First Half Under 94 at +100 for 1 unit(W)
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San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers.
Have to take the Spurs. Lakers have given up triple digits in 8 of last 10 games, dropping 8 of last 10 ATS. Spurs are tough pick ATS, but I think they get it done.

SAS -3 at -110 for 3 units(L)

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Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics.
Washington to come out of the gate.

WAS -1.5 First Quarter at -110 for 2 units(L)

Both losses come at single possession! I'm beating myself after vowing to take the numbers and sides kill the day.
3-2 -1.50 units

NBA Saturday

Utah Jazz at New Orleans Hornets.
Hornets are keeping it close and last 10 ATS record is 8-2. Books are all over from 2.5 to 6.5 and taking the middle looks pretty good.
Considering Hornets scored only 88 points in their last two games increased scoring will be likely and Jazz in second of back to back their production may go down, but adjusted scoring looks to higher than any of their previous match up. The Under just looks luring.

UTA/NOH Over 191.5 at -110 for 2 units(L)
This game is going nowhere.
UTA/NOH 2nd Half Under 95.5 -110 for 2 units (L)
I've been making some bad calls, but this one tops the list.
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New Jersey Nets at Denver Nuggets.
I'll take this one Under. Nets are not playing their game.

NJN/DEN Under 210.5 at -105 for 2 units(L)
Can't believe Nets scored so many points.
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LAC First Quarter -1.5 at -110 for 3 units(L)
MIN/LAC First Quarter Under 46.5at -110 for 3 units(W)
MIN/LAC First Half Under 93 at -110 for 3 units(W)

MIN/LAC 2nd Half Over 94 at -110 for 3 units(W)

Bobcats/Warriors Over across the board 2units each at -110
54.5(W)
108(W)
210(W)

Guess I got bit heated. Will stay on the Totals.
6-4 +5.2 units

NBA Friday

Be back later on these two likely plays.

Cleveland at Philadelphia
PHL

Boston at Toronto
BOS

OK, I'll back Boston in Toronto facing the red hot Raptors. It's a bit of buy low sell high play and Raptors giving -8.5 or more is just no value.
Boston is a bottom feeder having lost 9 out of last 10, but ATS 3 out of last 5. Those ATS wins have come against San Antonio, Washington, Atlanta and Detroit.

BOS +9 at -110 for 2 units(W)
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Wednesday

Some early thoughts, but not pulling the trigger yet.

Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Bobcats.
First impression I like the Cats at home getting +6.5 and the Under 187.

76ers at Cleveland. I like the Under 188.

Houston at San Antonio. I like the Over 180.5 and final selection will come in the morning.

My Wednesday selection has nothing to do with thoughts from last night.
Taking the late night game Nets at Golden State Warriors. Don't like East coast team making the trip West. It's the nature of time zone moving forward and Warriors at home coming off a loss in L.A. with ATS cover.

GSW -5 at -110 for 2 units(L)
NJN/GSW Under 205.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)

2nd Half Minnesota at Portland Under 91 at -110 for 2 units(L)

0-3 -5.50 units

NBA Tuesday

It's a big game day, the battle of the Cappers. Money players are split and of course the NBA viewers have high expectation for tonight's match up in the North West......Denver Nuggets at Seattle Supersonics.
High octane dynamic duo Mello and AI make their second appearance and the Nuggets are expected to go all the way. Critical point here is the 4th game in 5 days for Nuggets playing on the road, second of back to back. The wagering public has shrug off such notion with 75.27% backing Denver giving up points. In combination the line is showing reverse movement from +3 to +2.5 Sonics. Once again fading the public on +75% team with reverse line movement on the spread.


SEA +3 for 1 unit(L)
Much closer than box score, but loss.
0-1 -1.10 units

NBA Monday

Took a day off Basketball and watched NFL with some friends.
No money selection on Football and had fun. I must of been the only one in the room with nothing riding. It's kind of funny observing people biting their nails. Pats vs Colts was a classic with everyone crammed in front of the TV and we had quite of few people with Pats +3 or +3.5 getting moosed at the end.

Moving on to NBA and fresh off the drawing board.
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers.
I view the Bulls as a streaky team this season much more than a zig zag team. Bulls off of 10 point home loss (-16.5 ATS) to Utah are now on the road (6-12 ATS). Indy is in good form even with season high 4 consecutive SU losses, three of those losses were one possession, and O'neal is going to will this revenge match.

IND -1 at -110 for 3 units(W)
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New York Knicks at Miami Heat.
Where are the books looking to get all the points from? I think this is a ugly game.

NYK/MIA Under 197.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)

Good day at last! I was thinking of thousands of angles before I settled for the two winners above, but I also had thoughts on Batis's play from last season, the old Monday Dog play with Boston home dog, which would of cashed. Ride the Toronto ATS play, which would of cashed. Oh yeah I had Magic & Cavs and Nets & Kings circled to go Under, both would of cashed. Selections and Leans perfect for Monday.
2-0 +5.00 units

NBA Saturday

Orlando Magic at New Jersey Nets.

Nets coming off a rare triple digit scoring for and against at New York.
Orlando giving up 2nd highest home scoring 114 and getting out boarded badly. Adjustments are coming.

NJN/ORL UNDER 180.5 at -110 for 2 units(L)
Not feeling these games lately. The game turn tides in 2nd half taking this Over by a mile.
0-1 -2.20 units

NBA Friday

Raptors are playing again. Why not take the hot team at home? Jazz are not playing quality ball at all, but this is a scary match where the books have placed ATS -1 for the Home team Toronto. If I had to guess Raptors are a bit square play and Jazz may have some chase money riding.
Whatever the case Raptors are on auto pilot for now. I had them pegged to be a top tier ATS team this season and they are still regarded in low ranking. Raptors are not making any headlines, but closing out games.

TOR -1 at -110 for 2 units(L)
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Crooked number for the day is Heat at 76ers. Don't you see Sixers rag tag team getting crushed by Miami riding 5 out of 6 ATS and SU?
Everyone and their grandmother is on Heat so why is the line still 2.5? There are some 3, but that does not look right.

PHL +3 at -115 for 2 units(W)
1-1 -0.20 units

NBA Thursday

Lakers at Mavericks.
Lakers playing 2nd leg of road back to back. Taking out San Antonio Spurs at home SU and ATS. Are the Lakers real contenders? We will see tonight. Lakers are a excellent ATS team much better than Dallas. Sure they have the best home record, but ATS is 10-9-2 and they have tendencies to not cover after a big margin win. 5.5 points over -7.5 for 13 point win margin, maybe not as big as 25 point against Portland, better than 10 point ATS against Spurs and first game of 2007 24 point margin win against Supersonics. All following games Dallas did not cover, one push. Lakers are known for their back to back woes dating back to last season, but when they are brimming with confidence and getting 10 points they look pretty good.

LAL +10 at -110 for 2 units(L)
0-1 -2.20 units

NBA Wednesday

Sacramento at Toronto.
Needless to say I will ride the Raptors even though the Kings are due for a win. If a win is in Sacramento's future I look forward to Boston.

TOR -4.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)
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Phoenix at Houston.
Rockets playing 2nd leg of back to back with another set back, loss of T-Mac at the closing minutes against Dallas. Houston lost by largest margin this year which was held before by loss against Phoenix. T-Mac is listed day to day, but his performance has been dominant when he is on the floor and if he can't get it going, watch out. Suns to come out of the gate.

PHO -1.5 First Quarter -110 for 1 unit(L)
1-1 +0.90 units

NBA Tuesday

Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks.
Rockets are playing good ball no doubt, but the way I see it their momentum is waning. Rockets played their best ball against the Lakers, Jan 10th, the 2 following games they pulled out wins, but not by much and need OT at Kings. Dallas is on the same boat they need OT at Indy and one point win at Toronto. The difference is Mavs having mediocre game is not excusable compared to Houston without Yao. Dallas needs a big win now they're back home the problem is Rockets rarely lose ATS getting +7 points. The way I see it Mavericks cover 1st Half and 2nd Half may or may not be a back door cover, but I think it'll be close with +7 points. We've also seen how active Rockets front court has become and Mavs are not going to give up the inside at home so this should be physical and I like the First Half Under, but half lines are not out yet.

Rockets First Half last 5 games:
1/13 @SAC = HOU 46 points
1/12 @DEN = HOU 44 points
1/10 LAK = HOU 47 points
1/8 @CHI = HOU 30 points
1/7 @MIN = HOU 40 points
Mavericks First Half last 5 games:
1/14 @TOR = DAL 48 points
1/12 @IND = DAL 44 points
1/10 POR = DAL 47 points
1/9 @UTA = DAL 45 points
1/7 @LAL = DAL 51 points

The line was pretty close.

DAL -4 First Half at -110 for 1 unit(L)
HOU/DAL Under 90.5 First Half at 100 for 1 unit(L)
0-2 -2.10 units

NBA Monday

Toronto at Philadelphia.
Don't you love the Raptor coming into a soft schedule? I do.
This back to back spot is against the evolving 76ers not in tuned to stop a surging team. I'll pick my spots with the Sixers, but this game I back the Raptors.

TOR ML +115 for 2 units(W)

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One game that doesn't look right is San Antonio at Chicago. I would say Spurs roll here like everyone else, but -2.5 was the opening at BetCris and -2 at Pinny both of these lines are currently available online. Spurs are solid on the road and Bulls are short handed....should be fairly easy, but don't fall for the Spurs and stay off this. Might even consider a small stake on Bulls at home before game time.

Didn't have a chance to post, but this was a winner too.

1-0 +2.30 units

NBA Sunday

Dallas at Toronto.
Games are getting sketchy and I wouldn't blame anyone to fade my plays, I would. The name of the game is consistency and it really doesn't matter if the games are close if I'm not knocking them down.
If you follow 2 cappers and one is hitting 64% winner and the other is hitting 72% losers who do you follow? The answer is easy, you fade the 72% loser.

So my play on this game is the home dog getting 5 points. The ATS line is moving against the public. Dallas is definitely a public darling and top ATS road team. Dirk powered 43 points against Indy and JeT had 30 points, but Dallas seems to rotate their weapons. Dallas coming off ATS loss and Toronto looking hot (5 out of last 6 ATS).

TOR +5 at -110 for 2 units(W)
1-0 +2.00 units

NBA Saturday

Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns.
Magic on their West Coast road trip will be playing a tough set, 2nd leg of back to back, losing to Lakers in the first leg, but taking ATS (*if you waited for Magic +4) win. Also coming off a rare triple digit scoring for and against which doesn't happen much with Orlando. Chances of second of back to back going over +206 with Phoenix as the opponent is not bad, but this season the Suns are playing Under ball (O/U 6-13) .
Orlando's scheme is to control the front court and the board regardless to say they are a Under team.

ORL/PHO Under 206.5 at -120 for 3 units(L)
0-1 -3.60 units

NBA Friday

Post Pinnacle day one.
T-Wolves at Grizz Total is 217.5 OK maybe a head scratcher at this level even with Grizz playing free wheeling basketball. If you look closer to their recent form this number is reachable, but keep in mind the Memphis last 5 games or 10 games, what happened to their defense? It maybe fun basketball, but it takes wins to get to the playoffs. They know that and I know that so the game must evolve to selective execution and time management. Wolves one of the best in the business to take games under on the road. Wolves to out board the Grizz and play pressure defense. I'll take it to go below

MIN/MEN UNDER 218 at -115 for 2 units(L)
MIN/MEN 2nd Half UNDER 208.5 for -110 for 2 units(L)

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WAS/NOH 2nd Half Washington -5 -110 for 2 units(L)

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This game is Orlando at Lakers with Koby less than 100%.
LAL First Half -2.5 -110 for 2 units(W)
ORD/LAL UNDER 198 at -110 for 3 units(L)
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This game is a revenge match with Portland less than 100%.
SAC -1.5 First Half at -110 for 2 units(L)
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Miami at Golden State. Feel Miami on a roll.
MIA ML +197 for 1 unit(W)
2-5 -8.23 units

Pinnacle Sports dropping U.S.

Sorry to see them go. Sharpest and most respected book on the internet I wish Simon well.

So the game goes on. I will revise the lines according the Coast Hotel & Casinos lines from Las Vegas. The Barbary Coast, Gold Coast, Orleans, Suncoast, South Coast, Sam's Town and Fremont. Boyd gaming also includes Stardust, California, Eldorado and properties outside of Vegas.
It doesn't make sense if I'm not on them besides Coast lines come close to the Pinny lines. See how it works out if it's close enough I may return to using Pinny lines for reference and easy checking for everybody.

NBA Wednesday

Hi Gang, I been on the road trip taking care of things in Detroit. I was told the weather has been unusually warm for this time of the year, but it ain't California. Taking a crack at the late game in West Coast with Miami visiting Seattle. I know the match up trends Over, but at 196.5 is a tough sell. I don't see Miami taking the score into triple digits and I projected the number to land between 192~195. This total calls for Seattle to take the game Over. The pace will dictate Under.


MIA/SEA UNDER 196.5 at -108 for 1 unit
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Why not take the team cleaning offensive board in the first half. Even with poor shooting Magic are going to close the gap here.
2nd Half ORL+1 at -105 for 2 units

NBA Wednesday

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics. Two Under producing teams meet, Cavs O/U 12-18 & Celtics 14-16. Although these numbers are not profound their recent numbers are Cavs 2-4 last 6 & Celtics 1-5 last 6. Obvious fundamental decline for Celtics scoring is the absence of captain Paul Pierce, O/U 1-5 since Pierce going down. Cleveland is playing 2nd game of back to back with very bad track record of 1-7 ATS and very Under 2-6 O/U. This is also Cavs back to back with the first leg against tough San Antonio Spurs which seems to give teams 2nd day hangovers. I think there is enough cause to speculate the UNDER.

CLE/BOS Under 188.5 at -116 for 2 units

NBA New Year Day 2

Playing the line today. Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets.
This game is showing 78.69% wagerline consensus with 1 point or less ATS movement qualifying for public fade at 75% or higher.

76ers +8 at -121 for 2 units
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Seattle Supersonics at Dallas Mavericks.
I think this is too many points and with a little help from Dallas defense, Sonics with Wilcox trying to make the grade on the interior, it should slip right under the Total.

SEA/DAL Under 195 at -105 for 2 units

NBA 2007

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2007!
Minnesota Timberwolves at Charlotte Bobcats.
Cats coming off unbelievable 113-102 win in Indiana, Adam Morrison breakout 30 point game, before that taking care of Lakers in triple OT.
Minny lost to NJ in last game coming out flat and allowing 100 points.
Wolves are tuned to Cats offensive surge, Charts indicate point drop game for the Cats and defensive game for Wolves.

MIN/CHA Under 190 at -109 for 3 units(L)
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Boston at Portland.
Celtics fade on West Coast swing. Boston playing back to back at the Rose Garden.

POR -3.5 First Half -114 for 3 units(L)
POR 6.5 -116 for 3 units(L)

0-3 -10.17