Sunday, February 03, 2008

NBA Monday

0-1 last selection. YTD 90-60-2 +49.04 units

Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
Raptors coming off a loss at home to Lakers, but they are very good coming off a SU/ATS loss.
Toronto's low post strength will not be stopped by Miami. Taking the road favorite to dominate the glass and take this going away.

TORONTO -7.5 at -105 for 2 units**OFF LOAD**
This band wagon is getting a bit too crowded for my taste. We got in early at a fair price, good price should be on the plus side, and line has been pushed to -8. Take Miami +7.5 at +120 with Matchbook and keep the difference.

WTF, Toronto blow out and I unloaded this good pick.... +0.15 units

The revised game is Chicago Bulls at Seattle Supersonics.
It didn't work out with Orlando at Indy, but the thinking is basically SU winner no cover Sonics against SU loser ATS covering Bulls. Although the situation is best played on home dog coming off the ATS cover considering Sonics last game, 1 point coin flip win at home, no cover ATS, to the exhausted Knicks at the end of West Coast road trip with no Curry down low. Other side Bulls hanging tough at Arco covering ATS after getting humiliated at Minnesota. Interesting recap from Bull at Kings game, Brad Miller dominated the glass over Ben Wallace 20 to 9, you think Big Ben will be focused tonight?

BULLS PK at -102 for 1 unit(W)

Charlotte Bobcats at Phoenix Suns
Here is a top vs bottom tier match up in very lopsided favorites playing at home coming off a SU/ATS loss. Phoenix Suns are 7-3 L10 ATS all giving up points and they have not recorded a back to back loss in that span, but Suns backers are all too aware of the pitfalls in giving up double digit points at home setting them back 9-12 making this a no play spot for many cappers. Keep in mind Suns are like a fine tuned precision machine and when they start miss-firing watch out. 10 games prior to last 10 holds 3-7 ATS. This match up is the second of this season where Suns schooled the Cats on their court by a 32 point margin! dejavu, last season Suns killed the Cats going away by a 30 point margin in early season - March rematch in the Valley of the Suns goes OT with Cats almost pulling off the impossible and easy 25 point margin cover. OK, that scenario playing out is meaningless tonight, but Cats getting double digits in Arizona with ATS margin narrowing, ATS number is getting bigger and losing point margin decreasing, is a indicator for Cats ATS cover. Suns 5-8 ATS giving up double digits, but if you go -11 or higher 3-7 ATS.

BOBCATS +14.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
By the hook baby!

Kicking myself for off loading, but did it the hard way.
2-0 +2.00 units


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