Monday, April 08, 2013

NCAA National Championship

There are no games scheduled in the NBA, but we do have the title game coming up and that's where our focus will be. Let's head out to Atlanta, GA. to the Georgia dome.  It's Michigan Wolverines 31-7 against Louisville Cardinals 34-5 for all the marbles.  This match up with No#1 Louisville Cardinals expected to take this game by 4 points and the final total to land around 138 points so the division is Cardinals 73 Wolverines 65.  If you go back 10 games for Louisville the Cards have exceeded 73 in  7 out 10 and gone Over 9 out of 10. The Wolverines have exceeded 65 points in 8 out of last 10, but their games are O/U 5-5 and only twice have their opponents score over 73 points. What we see here is Michigan output increase and Louisville decline which is likely, but what most will see is the production from both teams playing under the average. From the average perspective the Total is low and it has been driven up by 2 points, holding steady at 138, still making it Over bias. However our projection is closer to 136 Under bias something like 67-69 Louisville SU Michigan +4 cover and game Total Under.  The play we like is Under with the number getting pushed up. Backing the Under in this Over bias game.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES vs LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
Game Total UNDER 138.5 at -110 for 1 unit(L)



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