Friday, November 16, 2007

NBA Saturday

1-2 last selection with a OT loss on NYK/SAC Under that was in the bag! YTD 23-17 +12.24

Moving on...

Seattle at Charlotte
Cats to cool Supersonic offense
SEA/CHA UNDER 196.5 at -105 for 1 unit(W)
add
SEA/CHA UNDER 199 at -102 for 2 units(W)

Portland at Washington
Like Wizards to have a strong showing. Giving -6 points
WAS -6 at -110 for 1 unit(W)

Memphis at Dallas Total 210
Just score baby.
OVER 210 at -105 for 1 unit(W)

Phoenix at Houston
Suns in full strength Rockets are not.
SUNS -5.5 at -110 for 2 units(W)

Saturday morning and 3 out of 4 lines have moved to my favor. The one game, SEA/CHA U196.5 is now 197, was a game I did consider waiting, but with unpredictable mornings I didn't want to chance not being able to update the selection and 197 at -110 is just a bookie mind-play you could still sell -0.5 points and the price for 196.5 is -106 (Pinny lines) I think the number (total) is pretty strong, but scoring trajectory above the total today is significantly low.
This is what I think about these two teams.
SEA
Playing 4th game in 5 day on road, coming off OT win in Atlanta recording second straight up win back to back. Excluding @ORL 11/11 blow out loss this young squad is 4-1 last 5 ATS. Offense has produced +99 points 5 out of 10 games exceeding Over total in 4 out of 5 situations. Defense has allowed +99 points 9 out of 10 games exceeding Over total in 4 out of 9 situations.
Current Odds Total average is 208.85 and game Total average is 209.

(SA=shot attempted made% PITP=Points in the Paint)
10/31 96 SA 41.7% 28 PITP 52 Boards 103-120 road loss Nuggets
11/01 99 SA 41.4% 46 PITP 50 Boards 106-99 home loss Suns
11/04 93 SA 47.0% 40 PITP 47 Boards 101-115 road loss Clippers
11/06 79 SA 48.1% 30 PITP 42 Boards 98-104 road loss Kings
11/07 85 SA 45.9% 52 PITP 45 Boards 105-98 home loss Grizzlies
11/09 85 SA 47.1% 66 PITP 38 Boards 101-103 home loss Jazz
11/11 86 SA 43.0% 46 PITP 47 Boards 103-107 home loss Pistons
11/13 96 SA 34.4% 46 PITP 44 Boards 103-76 road loss Magic
11/14 75 SA 49.3% 38 PITP 52 Boards 104-95 road win Heat
11/16 99 SA 47.5% 50 PITP 43 Boards 126-123 OT road win Hawks (107-107 regulation)

CHA
Last played on 11/14, @ATL loss in high pace game which was 2nd of back to back where Hawks played aggressive out of the gate and took the game in the 1st quarter. Before losing that last game Cats recorded 3 straight ATS home wins. Offense has produced +99 points 2 out of 8 games both of those situation exceeded Over total. Defense has allowed +99 points 2 out of 8 games exceeding Over total in 1 of 2 situations.
Current odds Total average is 190.81 and game Total average is 184.65

11/02 76 SA 48.7% 54 PITP 44 Boards 102-99 home win Bucks
11/04 69 SA 46.4% 34 PITP 40 Boards 90-88 road win Heat
11/06 82 SA 35.6% 38 PITP 51 Boards 115-83 home loss Suns
11/07 75 SA 30.7% 28 PITP 46 Boards 63-94 road loss 76ers
11/09 71 SA 45.1% 26 PITP 52 Boards 96-87 home win Pacers
11/11 78 SA 39.7% 32 PITP 34 Boards 82-85 home loss Rockets
11/13 79 SA 43.0% 34 PITP 47 Boards 76-91 home win Heat
11/14 83 SA 49.4% 44 PITP 29 Boards 117-109 road loss Hawks

Sonics will surely feel their legs in this match, but these guys are playing with abandonment. Cats will certainly look to contain the pace and methodically attack one of the weakest defense in the Association.
True to line differential Cats are 1-4 O/U at home. The lesson they have fresh on their mind is 59.7% shooting allowed and whopping 62 PITP. That rebounding number was dismal too and all should improve on defense.
*This total has moved 2.5 points better and that is a added play*

I like to get into the others, but again I am out of time. Couple of First Quarter add on's

WAS -1.5 1st Quarter -105 for 1 unit(W)
SUN -1.5 1st Quarter -105 for 1 unit(W)

Received interesting angle on Memphis and I will add this play.
MEM +14.5 at -107 for 1 unit(W)

Good day and good luck!

Wow, wow, wow! Big day perfect in every way!!!
8-0 +10.00 units

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