Sunday, December 09, 2007

NBA Monday

1-0 last selection. 50-34-1 +24.49 units

It's my nature to look at dogs in any given match up and ask myself "can they cover?", and it's always interesting how game may differ from how it looks on the surface. But raw numbers will tell you home favorites win SU 70.68% and with the spread book makers are able to reduce the number to 52.11% impressive trim. Still the number indicates how tough it is to crack the home favorites. Take for instance - Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic.
Hawks visiting Magic will be +9.5 underdog and that big of a number should catch your attention, but Hawks are one of those teams well read by the Odds makers, playing poor when given points and strong when favored, with 4 ATS wins out of last 8 games only 1 of those ATS win was a Underdog. Orlando is not without issues there had more than few miss ques at GSW (12/03 123-117 OT win) followed by more turnovers at home IND (12/07 109-115 loss), but bounce back is more than likely and they are the superior team.

ORL -9.5 at +101 for 1 unit(L)

Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings
Backing the Under in this late night game at Arco. Brick city will prevail some where in this game to sink it Under.

MIL/SAC Under 198 at +103 for 1 unit(W)


1-1 +0.03 units



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