Tuesday, December 18, 2007

NBA Tuesday

Sacramento Kings at New Jersey Nets
Kings good home (8-4) weak road (1-10) team. True to form has dropped 2 out of first 3 road games that started in @BOS 12/12, but keep in mind those same games were ATS wins 2 out of 3 with SU underdog winner in @PHL 12/14 and the lone loss was 2nd leg of b2b, 3rd game in 4 days. Kings have improved in December (5-3 ATS) covering all but one game when receiving points. Kings have been winning dog in December with only bad beat in @LAC 12/07.
Nets are bad home (5-9) team. They are horrific ATS home (3-10-1) only covering once in December as favorites and that's way early 12/04 @CLE giving a small -1.5 points. They did take out CLE again at home 12/14 AS +3 dog, but everybody else beat them ATS, won 76ers SU 12/01 in OT but did not cover. Overall games Kings are below .500 and margin of difference is loss by -3.5 points, on the road is -10 points and in recent form is -3 points. Nets playing below .500 with overall differnce of -6 points, at home is -6 points and in recent form is -6 points. So you have pretty good chance of dog winning SU or dog covering +5.

SACRAMENTO +5 at +100 for 2 units(W)

Some stuff I've been checking out that may lead clue to tonight's total:
Lawrence Frank will insert Josh Boone and Sean Williams as starters tonight at home against Sacramento in place of Jason Collins at center and Malik Allen at power forward.
"I just sensed that a different combination, a different dynamic, might help us execute our game plan up front better," Frank said. "These players are two bigs who can run the floor, create tempo and give us both energy at the offensive end of the floor and deterrence at the defensive end."
Boone, a 2006 first-round draft choice (No. 23 overall) has averaged 9.5 points and nine rebounds over the past four games. Williams is shooting well from the field (.566), leads the team with 36 blocks and had eight points on 4-of-7 shooting with five rebounds and two blocks in only 18 minutes against the Knicks.
"We're just going to play our game and we're both going to take advantage of the opportunity that's been given to us," said Williams, the Nets' 2007 first-round pick out of Boston College (17th overall). "I think we are both athletic and we can make a difference offensively and defensively.
Marcus Williams should be available for his first action of the season tonight off the bench after going through his second full practice without any problems Monday.

Nets side seems hard pressed to push their scoring or at least their tempo which would make the dropping total some what exposed.

SAC/NJN OVER 187 at -103 for 2 units(W)

2-0 +4.00 units

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