Wednesday, April 05, 2006

I'm looking at a interesting game coming up.
I guess the early money likes Koby and Company getting +4.5 points at Pinny, but consensus at Covers/Wagerline is on Denver. Maybe the case of Sharps vs Public. But I can't believe Anthony gave away that last game with time remaining, punching the ball in frustration 25 rows into the seats, costing the Nuggets a technical, which Sam hit, and Clippers got to call the Nuggets player to shoot the FT since Anthony was ejected from the game. Evans got the call and promptly missed both costing another 2 points, so 3 points Denver gave to Clippers for free and outcome was LAC by 2 points. Don't forget Nuggets had 20 points advantage at the half and they let Clippers come back.
Now Clippers responded well against the Suns dominating the 2nd half and crushing the rested Suns at home, Clips playing 2nd of B2B.
How will Denver respond returning home with a open day to soak?
I think they come out running and gunning.
How about the Lakers? Their last game, home against Yao and the Rockets was all Lakers. On this particular night at Staples was free Tacos for everyone attending. The deal was, Lakers hold opponent, Rockets, below 90 points you get a free Taco. So with time running out the crowd was chanting "We Want Tacos!" and with each Rockets stop the crowd was going wild. Koby was laughing telling his team mates, everyone wants Tacos. They got the Taco, funny stuff.
As for this match up I like Denver/Lakers to run up the score out of the gate.
Predicting 1st Quarter line at 53.

Check back in the morning.

Not quite morning yet, but the game total 205 which opened at 206 is recovering at 205 Over -122 at Pinny and see many books at 205.5 so Pinny is taking in Over money with this number you can buy down to 203.5
Does this mean anything? Maybe the book is balancing the money flow, maybe the early sharp money came in at 206 plus 1.5 points on buy to get Under 207.5 in either case, Lakers have not allowed 100+ points in last 10 games and Nuggets play their best game when holding opponents below -100 points and they failed to do so on last two games with the last one surging to 111 points.
This may not be pure offense as it first appears. Nuggets might adjust their defense. If I decide on going Under I want much points as possible.

Now it's past noon PST, 12:22 to be exact, looking back at what I wrote this is leading to conflicting wager a very basic no no in betting. If offsetting was the reasoning it's different, but to back both Over & Under in the same match is not good. Having said all this the play will probably win with my NBA luck right now. So what am I doing? I'm staying with 1st Quarter to play out Over 53. Public has pushed the game total back to 206, but I will consider 2nd Half play after concluding my 1st Quarter pick and watching the 1st Half.

LAL/DEN 1st Quarter OVER 53 -105 for 1 unit(W)
Yeah the game played out just as I thought (sailing Over out of the gate and slowing down to 99-99 in regulation), but I didn't have the mind to put more on this play considering I spent more time capping NBA over MLB and I made the bigger bet on baseball, mistake.
1-0 +1.00 unit

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